Macleod’s Market Report: COMEX Silver Open Interest Close to All-Time Highs!

silver pricesIn western capital markets there is a widely-held view that a deteriorating economic outlook will provoke a run from commodities into cash, so those who regard gold as only a commodity are bearish but have almost certainly already sold. The four billion Asians who own most of the world’s gold take a different view, having learned through experience that their currencies collapse instead.
This sums up the opposing forces behind the gold price.  In futures markets the bets are in favour of shorting, while the Asians continue to buy physical. And this is why yet again, the London gold forward rate (GOFO) went sharply into backwardation last Friday when futures markets forced prices lower.
Prices for gold and silver sold off last week, with gold falling from a high of $1331 to a low of $1286 on Tuesday, and silver went as low as $19.22 at one point.
Silver’s open interest on Comex has been building and is now close to all-time highs at over 164,000 contracts. When the tide turns, silver should be the star performer.

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Alasdair Macleod: Paper Currencies Face Ultimate Collapse- Loss of Confidence in the Dollar Could Propel Silver to $75!

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launch rocket verticalLondon expert Alasdair Macleod returns to the SD Weekly Metals & Markets with his brilliant PM analysis, including:

  • Chinese 2013 gold demand 7,603 tons- More than DOUBLE Global Supply & mainstream estimates!
  • Macleod states that China’s total gold reserves (public & private) may be between 10 and 25,000 tons of gold!
  • Vaulting companies have never seen a 1 kilo (9999) gold bar- not one ounce is leaving China!
  • Gold being delivered from Western vaults has turned dirty- (barely .9 gold):  Bullion Banks Now Scraping the Bottom of the Vaults to Source Asian Gold Demand!
  • Swiss Refiners are working 24/7, with up to 20 tons a day being sourced to China via Switzerland alone!
  • We discuss plunging GOFO rates: Macleod explains that the London Market has been Effectively Cleaned Out of Gold Below $1300, & that No One is Willing to Arbitrage the Negative GOFO Because There is No Bullion Available! 
  • Alasdair provides his short & long term outlook for gold & silver, & states that Paper Currencies Face Ultimate Collapse, and that the Coming Loss of Confidence in the Dollar Could Propel Silver to $75!

A Special Extended Edition Metals & Markets With Alasdair Macleod is below: [Read more...]

Koos Jansen’s Exhaustive Summary of the Chinese Gold Market

China goldOn April 4, 2014 Alasdair Macleod published an extensive analysis on the Chinese gold market.  I felt obligated to respond to it by sharing my point of view and explain where I disagree with his analysis.  I think his estimates are largely overstated because he double counts certain demand categories.  Macleod states Chinese gold demand in 2013 was 4843 metric tonnes, according to me it was 2197 metric tonnes (my estimate excludes some hidden demand and PBOC purchases on which I have no hard numbers). Setting out our differences was incidentally a good occasion for me to write another in-depth analysis on the Chinese gold market.
I highly respect Macleod, who was probably working in finance when I was in diapers, and I’m very grateful he has been using my findings about SGE withdrawals and the structure of the Chinese gold market. I see very little commentators stepping into this realm, though it’s truly the most important economic event happening in our time.
Having said that, I present my analysis: [Read more...]

Economic Outlook Darkens

empire revoltAfter six years of monetary and tax policies that could have not been better designed to destroy savings and the savings ethic, you’d think governments might have learned some sort of lesson. They are having none of it. Instead Japan is hell-bent on monetary kamikaze, and the ECB is now warming us up for negative interest rates and/or QE.
The problem is far from being understood: if anything the destruction, even confiscation of savings, and the creation of yet more money are set to accelerate in a futile attempt to buy off the inevitable.
Many decades of Keynesian-inspired economic and monetary corruption have left advanced economies with a legacy of debt and low savings. In a nutshell, that is the problem which is driving us into another financial crisis. 
And bond yields are telling us to batten down the hatches for the next crisis: it could be worse than 2008.

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Gold and bail-ins

Blythe Masters Jamie DimonI am often asked whether or not western governments are likely to confiscate gold, and my answer has invariably been on the lines of “unlikely at the moment, because so few people own gold”.
However, given low stock levels in western vaults and that bail-ins are on the agenda, the answer to the question should be reconsidered. [Read more...]

Alasdair Macleod: Higher Silver Prices Likely to Trigger a Vicious Bear Squeeze!

falling-bearUnlike gold, where Comex volume is moderate, silver volume is high indicating very strong support at current levels. The obvious conclusion is that bullion banks trying to balance their silver books cannot do so at current prices.
Yet higher prices are likely to trigger a vicious bear squeeze, so it appears the bullion banks with short silver positions will remain trapped either way. [Read more...]

Alasdair Macleod: China’s Demand For Gold Has Trapped The West’s Central Banks

china bank runIn the rest of the world and particularly Asia, people do not think like we do. As far as they’re concerned, gold is the only long term asset worth holdingIt is the family pension fund… the financial press in the West, the mainstream media, basically rely for their information on analysts in the bullion banks. And the bullion banks are always short… Now whether the West is right or wrong is not the point. The point is there are 4 billion people in Asia who have got a very old-fashioned view of gold, and they have become wealthy over the last twenty years. And their view is likely to prevail against the <1 billion of us in North America and Western Europe. I mean it really is as simple as that. It’s not a question of Austrian economics, or Keynesian, or whatever. We’re outnumbered. [Read more...]

Will the REAL Chinese Gold Demand Numbers Please Stand Up

gold vaultWhile there has been much debate over the amount of gold that is actually, realistically being transferred from the western bank and Central Bank vaults, all of us who study this issue can say with 100% confidence that any estimates from the World Gold Council, or from WGC-derived analyses, are incorrect by a significant amount. This much we know.
Alisdair Macleod, who is one of the few gold market analysts out there with analysis and commentary about the gold market that I believe offers accurate insight and is worth reading,  published a detail report which outlines what appears to be the most bona fide estimate of the amount of gold that is being “absorbed” by China annually.  While most of us have speculated on the size of the true amount of gold held by the PBOC, Mr. Macleod’s analysis puts together the numbers which show why the PBOC disclosure is misleadingly low.
In that I’ve been researching and studying the gold market for nearly 14 years now, I can say with complete conviction that if Alisdair’s numbers are not 100% accurate, they’re pretty da*n close to the truth.
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Alasdair Macleod’s Renewed Estimates of Chinese Gold Demand

Bundesbank goldI have been revisiting estimates of the quantities of gold being absorbed by China, and yet again I have had to revise them upwards. Analysis of the detail discovered in historic information in the context of China’s gold strategy has allowed me for the first time to make reasonable estimates of vaulted gold, comprised of gold accounts at commercial banks, mine output and scrap. There is also compelling evidence mine output and scrap are being accumulated by the government in its own vaults, and not being delivered to satisfy public demand.
The impact of these revelations on estimates of total identified demand and the drain on bullion stocks from outside China is likely to be dramatic, but confirms what some of us have suspected but been unable to prove.
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Alasdair Macleod: Quarter-end distortions in the gold market

GoldThe gold price continued last week’s fall into Monday, which was the end of the first quarter of 2014. Since then having reached a low point of $1278 in New York trading, gold rallied to a high of $1294 on Tuesday before weakening on Thursday morning.
The biggest influence was not stories and announcements, but the market-makers’ attempts to reduce their exposure by the quarter-end.
This can be clearly seen in the chart of gold and open interest below. [Read more...]

Alasdair Macleod’s Market Report: Central banks add to gold reserves

Gold and Silver YTD $The correction in the gold price continued this week, falling another $40 to a low of $1290 yesterday. In all, gold has retraced nearly half this year’s rise and silver has retraced most of its rise since end-January, with the gold/silver ratio increasing to over 65 times. However, this disappointing performance for precious metals masks some strong undercurrents in gold.
Current prices appear to be stimulating new sources of physical demand in a deeply oversold physical market.
At some stage gold and silver are set to rise strongly, but in the very short term paper traders remain in control.

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Chinese Shadow Banking & Commodities: A Convenient Cover for Bullion Banks

china bank runExaggerating the scale of commodity-financed shadow banking in China supports a bearish stance, because unwinding these deals is expected by the authors of this story to release a flood of physical metal. Coinciding with China’s economic slowdown, it has already helped drive copper to four-year lows. For gold it has doubtless contributed to the recent fall in the price, favoring bullion banks unable to cover their physical commitments.
It may be too cynical to suggest that vested interests are behind the promotion of this commodity financing story, but the authors do seem to be ignoring the blindingly obvious. China’s copper stocks are backed by real demand and gold is firmly in the grip of the PBOC. China’s government and people value physical gold over superabundant fiat currencies and regard it as a hedge against economic uncertainty, not a victim of it.

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Alasdair Macleod: Putin to Use Gold As a Weapon Against the West!

gun forcedThe West is not just confronting Russia, but potentially China and the other Shanghai Cooperative Organization members as well. Russia’s relationship with the SCO brings with it the possibility of using gold as a weapon against the West, because most governments involved with the SCO have been actively buying gold while western central banks have been providing it.
So far the SCO members have been content to accumulate the west’s gold on falling prices, being careful not to disrupt the market.

We cannot say the Ukrainian crisis is over. It is more than likely Putin will not be fully satisfied until there is a Russian-friendly government in Kiev. And if a senior Russian politician cares to have another conversation with China over maximizing turmoil on Wall Street, driving up the gold price is the obvious financial weapon of choice. [Read more...]

Gold’s Wall of Worry

goldThe general tone of financial markets is tilting perhaps towards deflation. China is trying to slow monetary growth, leading to revised GDP forecasts, and possibly the end of her property bubble. To this we add the Fed’s monetary policy, which on the basis of last week’s FOMC meeting appears to be less inflationary in tone. In the cliché of old, gold is climbing a wall of worry.
All this is essentially short-term noise, so long as central banks continue to rely on printing money to rescue the global economy and the financial system at times of stress.  A deflationary crisis will always provoke an inflationary response, and that is what the primary trend in gold and silver is all about.

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Off-Air: The Vast Majority Will Face Starvation — Alasdair MacLeod

economic collapseAfter our amazing call with writer and researcher Alasdair MacLeod officially ended, we kept on talking! This bonus conversation includes the entirety of that conversation which covers the very real possible outcomes that may result from a worldwide banking collapse. Alasdair is concerned that the equivalent to a financial WW3 may result in starvation for many, many unprepared people. We wonder, how can we extricate humanity from this debt-based fiat paper monetary scheme without destroying humanity in the process? [Read more...]