Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal. Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them. This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months. Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.
The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market. Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators. Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly larger before fully running its course. Fundamental gold-stock-bull upside targets reveal the lion’s share of gains are still yet to come.
The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors. A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment. That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-market rally has left gold stocks unloved and overlooked. But their outlook is very bullish, and major upside breakouts near.
Gold suffered heavy selling in early March leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike. Speculators frantically dumped gold futures ahead of the Fed’s meeting as implied rate-hike odds soared. This is nothing new. This key group of traders has long feared Fed-rate-hike cycles, convinced they are the mortal nemesis of zero-yielding gold. But this view is highly irrational, as history proves gold actually thrives in rate-hike cycles!
The silver miners’ stocks have had a roller-coaster ride of a year so far. They surged, plunged, and then started surging again last week on a less-hawkish-than-expected Fed. Such big volatility has spawned similar outsized swings in sentiment, distorting investors’ perceptions of major silver miners. But their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results reveal the true underlying fundamental realities.
The junior gold stocks corrected hard in recent weeks, setting them up to blast higher on Wednesday’s less-hawkish-than-expected Fed. That started to dispel some of the serious bearish sentiment that has been mounting in this sector. The junior gold miners’ fundamentals justify much-higher stock prices, as evidenced in their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results. They remain very bullish.
The gold miners’ stocks have corrected hard in recent weeks, hammered by a gold pullback driven by soaring Fed-rate-hike odds. Like any considerable selloff, this has spawned serious bearish sentiment. But the gold miners’ underlying operating fundamentals remain quite strong, proving the recent selling was purely psychological.
This sector’s just-reported fourth-quarter results are Impressive, VERY Bullish:
The gold stocks enjoyed a strong surge early this year, fully reversing their sharp post-election losses. While they spent much of February consolidating before sliding, this sector’s seasonals will soon turn very favorable again in mid-March. The gold miners have long enjoyed strong spring rallies in bull-market years. Early March’s seasonal lull is a great opportunity to deploy aggressively ahead of this big spring buying.
This is STUNNINGLY Bullish For Gold:
The gold miners’ stocks have blasted higher in this young new year, far outpacing the broader markets. But surprisingly gold stocks’ trading volume has diverged from their powerful rally. Volume has actually been waning on balance since gold stocks’ newest upleg was born in mid-December. While volume is a complex nuanced indicator, this bullishly suggests that major gold-stock buying hasn’t even started yet.
Gold stocks’ recent rally is only the vanguard of another MAJOR bull-market upleg:
When American investors buy physical gold and silver bullion, it’s often in the form of these American Eagle 1-ounce coins.
Gold’s first new bull market since 2011 last year was overwhelmingly driven by stock investors flooding into gold ETFs. Traditional physical bar-and-coin demand was actually quite weak, falling considerably year-over-year. Nevertheless, it’s still important to stay abreast of classic gold and silver investment demand. One key microcosm of that comes in the form of the US Mint’s sales of its popular American Eagle coins.
Silver stocks are embarking on a major new bull-market upleg.
After getting crushed in the fourth quarter on a series of anomalous gold selloffs, this sector has rebounded dramatically over the past month.
And silver stocks’ market-leading gains are likely just the vanguard of far-larger ones coming…
Gold has rebounded sharply higher in the past month, taking the early lead as 2017’s best-performing asset class.
Big spec gold-futures buying is coming soon, which will help catapult gold sharply higher again just like it did a year ago. It is already starting with initial short covering, but will soon expand into far-larger long buying as gold continues powering higher. After selling their longs to such low levels, these influential traders will need to buy big for months on end to restore normal positions.
That’s great news for gold!
Gold has hit the ground running in this young new year, a stark contrast to its brutal post-election selloff. Rather remarkably, these strong recent gains accrued despite literally zero buying from one of gold’s most-important constituencies. The American stock investors who almost single-handedly fueled gold’s strong bull market last year are still missing in action since the election.
That means big gold buying is still coming:
The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again after suffering a rough few months. Following sharp selloffs on gold-futures stops being run, the Trumphoria stock-market surge, and a more-hawkish-than-expected Fed, this battered sector had largely been left for dead.
But gold stocks’ strong fundamentals finally overcame the dismal herd sentiment last week, paving the way for this sector to shine again in 2017:
2017 looks dangerous!
The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election. Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events. These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convinced stock markets are impregnable. But with stock valuations hitting bubble levels in an exceedingly-old bull, a major bear still looms.
Gold has suffered brutal, withering selling pressure in the month following the US presidential election. The stock markets’ surprise surge after Trump’s surprise win has led speculators and investors alike to rush for the gold exits. As usual the former group’s extreme selling came largely through gold futures. But this gold-futures dumping has been so severe that it is rapidly exhausting itself, a bullish omen for gold:
The junior gold miners’ and explorers’ stocks have been crushed in recent months, collateral damage from enormous gold-futures selling.
That’s naturally left investors and speculators extremely bearish on gold juniors. But lost in all this technical and sentimental tumult are important fundamentals from the juniors’ recently-reported third-quarter financial and operational results, which proved quite strong and bullish:
The silver miners recently finished reporting their third-quarter results, offering a hard fundamental look into this sector. This reality check is valuable given the fierce winds of bearish sentiment buffeting silver stocks in recent months. Despite their huge correction, the elite silver miners’ fundamentals remain strong.
They are producing at costs far below prevailing silver levels, with profits poised to soar as silver recovers.
Most investors and speculators today aren’t paying attention to the gold miners’ strong fundamentals. Instead they are all wrapped up in the fearful prevailing sentiment. That’s a big mistake as always. While gold-mining operating profitability will decrease in Q4 if gold prices remain low, gold’s young bull is far from over.
When it starts powering higher again on weaker stock markets, gold stocks will soar…
Donald Trump’s epic underdog victory climaxing the US presidential race was radically unexpected by the great majority of the world. Equally if not more surprising was the subsequent days’ market reaction. Stock markets, gold, and gold-mining stocks did exactly the opposite of what was universally forecast for a Trump win.
This has left contrarian traders wondering how gold and gold stocks will likely fare under Trump: