T. Ferguson: The Vaults Are Empty, Price Spike Ahead!

empty-vaultWe’re getting reports that all of the gold stored in London is now gone.  So the bigger story in 2014 is: should Western investment demand return, from where will the gold come?  That is the major problem now for the bullion banks, and by extension the central banks: the gold is gone!  And that is why gold is being actively suppressed this year!”  


  1. Somehow I am beginning to be reminded of the story of Peter and the Wolf.  I have heard the cry for higher prices right around the corner for the past three years.  Of how the dollar is on the verge of collapse, and how gold and silver are going to shoot to the moon.  My ears are becoming deaf to the noise. 

    • And here I thought it was a good interview…

      The last three years would have been difficult for many, but you need to take a long view of the silver market. It will turn around sometime, but there are risks even then. Diversification is never a bad idea. 

    • I couldn’t agree more. T ferg has been so wrong for the last several years. The vaults are empty???? says who. its all conjecture just likte the comex is going to collapse. No it wont. they can just pay out in cash which is not a default as far as public perception is concerned which is what this has always been about…CONFIDENCE

  2. Empty vaults must be the reason why the precious is spiking…… DOWN!
    Eat turds, Turd and stop listening to crazy babushka rumors in public bathrooms in the ghetto.

  3. Much like the Willie story, hyperbolic and hysterical – however the natural result of years of leasing metal, is ending up with no metal.
    Between leases to meet chinese needs as well as indian fabricators over decades, the musical chairs games comes to and end. When that happens we’ll be sitting on monster boxes inviting the unwashed masses to eat shit and bark at the moon.

  4. Price discovery is broken. We all know that. But I told Turd a couple years ago (before his censoring loving moderator banned me at TFMR), that things could get very tough in PM’s and that he should be careful making “specific price predictions”. Not that I disagree with his analysis on how crooked things are, but making these types of claims doesn’t do anyone any good at all. None of us know when this market is going to break higher (swiftly and massively upward), so lets just settle down and focus on things we can do and prepare for, and forget some of this daily/weekly/monthly phony price action. It’s useless and only makes gold bulls look like shills and cheerleaders.
    Keep stacking!

    • thank you for being professional here, great point and well worded as opposed to the usual crazy shit.

    • I agree, Bay.  Fine comments from someone with an ADULT point of view in all this instead of the frenzied immature chittering that we so often hear, particularly from those who SHOULD know better.
      As to TFMR, I used to visit their site on occasion until I realized that they were incredibly stuck on themselves and not open to discussion of serious points.  They seemed to be saying, “Our minds are made up, so don’t try to confuse us with facts”.  In any case, there wasn’t enough there to make staying worthwhile, so… I banned myself.  ;-)

  5. pigs banned, no, I couldn’t imagine why that would ever happen.
    On a more serious note, shortages have been “claimed” since the late 70s. Stack if you can but don’t let bloggers and old timers tell you when the time is right. This summer will prove much lower prices, it could be 2020+ before we ever see 50 again.

    • I would think you might fit the bill of a troll or troublemaker far better than I jiggy. Still waiting to get any verifiable information out of you on your “below spot buys”, you find everywhere all. over the country.
      Anyone else think this guy is totally full of shit around here besides me?

    • Back to the topic in the thread from last week…the other day I did a private ‘junk’ purchase from a seller who advertised on the local craigslist.  Even though the seller was laid off and needed cash, he would not accept less than $225 for the $205 spot-value of his coins; he had a ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ attitude towards the deal because he KNEW there were others who were willing to pay above spot.
      Having said that, I suppose the jury is out, as to whether pawn shops are willing to sell below spot.
      But it does appear that private individuals will not sell at $15-$16 per oz.

      The jury is also still out on where PM prices will be this summer. I looked into my crystal ball but it was too fuzzy inside to make out anything.

    • Sure we have a collection of buyers here on this site and others like it, but in reality there are very few buyers in any given city. I had two sellers contact me yesterday because their LCS offered them $10 on each $1 of 90%, the other guy said his shop was not buying gold! He had gone to one of my pawn shops and they offered him $200 each on 1/4oz krugs. When he declined he was given my card. Needless to say that was another under spot purchase. I will be happy to post a pic of the rare receipts I get when buying from small shops. Forgive me if I don’t want to hand my spots’ addresses to some oddball forum troll.

    • See, you prove my point. You’re a liar jiggy. You should be glad you weren’t hanging out with AGX and I recently. You would be trying to talk out of a wired jaw right now. You make me sick to my stomach you coward.

    • BoP
      Actually I think “jiggy” is just as right as ay other prognosticator ….. he is basically quoting what we can all see on PM prices in the 90′s. Will it repeat? Possibly, but one also has to look at macroeconomic factors which have changed, thus the reason we need to make our own decision on what/if/how much/how fast we want to stack. Given PM’s performance in the 90′s one would have done  much better by waiting or slowly accumulating. While I don’t believe that  this cycle will last as long as the last (10 years) due to printing it may work best yet again.
      My advise …. buy a base amount as insurance and then add on the significant dips (like the recent sub $19). Never go “all in” as that is a rookie move IN ANY MARKET.  Investing in PM’s should not be viewed as a get rich scheme (unless you are either mining or dealing in PM’s) … it is just one method of individual wealth preservation. Never fall in love with your stack, but never ignore it either.

    • @BayofPigs
      “Anyone else think this guy is totally full of shit around here besides me?”
      I don’t know.  But I DO know that neither silver nor gold can be bought routinely in my area at anywhere near spot.  If it could, yeah, I would be all over that.  The thing is, buying PMs is somewhat like buying real estate… as in, it’s definitely a local market.  One market might be booming at a time when another market is flat-lined.  In my area, buyers outnumber sellers by at least 6 or 7 to 1.  PMs are difficult to come by locally and when a LCS gets some in, they sell out in hours. ASEs and pre-1965 US silver coins seem to be the best sellers but Maples and a few others do pretty well too.

    • I can easily sell above spot here in Toronto Canada. I can still buy Canadian scrap silver at spot!

  6. Okay, Smart Guys:   So now you’re sitting on a little stash of precious metals.  How long do you think a bankrupt socialist government will let you keep it?   You really think Obama, the IRS, the NSA and the rest will respect your rights?   Have another puff on that pipe you’re smoking.

    • We’ve been through this thought experiment. There is low hanging fruit in the form of retirement accounts. As I’ve said before, sending the shock troops to knock doors down for a pittance of metal is not worth the effort financially. The effort would serve terror aims only.
      The day my silver gets repossessed is the day the world is burning and all hope is lost. i.e. never.

    • Shouldn’t this fella be smoking a Camel instead of a cigar?

    • @dirtlump
      Confiscate my silver? What silver? Where?
      I don’t know nuthin’ ’bout no silver! What you talkin’ ’bout Willis?
      They better have a silver psychic!

    • @Mammoth
      “Shouldn’t this fella be smoking a Camel instead of a cigar?”
      No, Woolly, that’s not smoking a camel, that’s a camel smoking!  ;-)

    • Sort of reminds me of Casino…”There are a lot of holes in the desert, a lot of silver buried in them holes”. The first time raids on private residences begin in earnest you can bet there will be some off-site allocation going on in earnest…

  7. Wow!  Got some good back and forth here….and civilized, too!  Sonofabitch, its no fun when not even jiggy or BoP , or Ugly or Dirt doesn’t (or won’t) come up with a needle-to-the eye comment! 

    The LCS’s are doing what THEIR sources are doing.  If they will sell low(er) the LCS, pawns, et al will do likewise.  Now, there may be some “weak hands” that are willing to sell off spot, but by and large, that ain’t happening unless there’s a moron loose with lots of silver.
    And as Woolly indicated, the knowledgeable seller can’t be squeezed because he/she knows there are those–like me–will be glad to pay over spot to GET THE SILVER…for fuck sakes!

    As for all these predictions, well, everyone has an asshole, so why not jump in and give a guess!

  8. Turd is one of the metals analyst’s whose work I enjoy and respect along with Andy Hoffman. He is actually on point with his analysis but calling price targets isn’t a wise move in such a highly manipulated market. I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the foreseeable future TPTB have a strangle hold on PM prices. This is despite the threat of full-blown war breaking out in Ukraine piled on top of the overwhelmingly bullish fundamentals currently in place for gold and silver. Oh and yes, the stock market continues to set new highs with no correction in sight.  
    I suspect we will most likely see range bound trading in silver between $18.50-$20.00 for the balance of the year. I’ll change my tune if we break and close below $18.50 to the downside and $21.00 to the upside. In the meantime I continue to add to my stack at these levels as I approach my target allocation. 

    • @gogetter1132
      I see a much narrower range, the $19 band. 
      If it closes below or above that, it will be progress (or regression, below 19!) but 
      it has been very tightly in that band since @the-doc and Eric called that bottom 
      in December. The couple of times it went below 19 it bounced right back up over 
      the $19.00 level in minutes (or SECONDS once!) so 19 seems a solid floor, for now…

  9. The metals MUST be going up soon because the shillage is really thick lately and that only happens when they need the additional disinfo leverage to attempt to throw us off as well as future possible stackers.
    “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win…..”  (Gandhi)
    We are at the fight stage now.

    • Agreed, the media spin machine of the price suppression scheme has gone into overdrive of late, which IMO indicates desperation as we approach endgame.

    • The hardest media spin i’ve seen is right here.  Same stories with a decline in prices.  Hmmm… 
      At least nothing so bad as the sign i saw on a we buy gold sign today… gold prices at 3 month highs, come sell today!

    • @mikeyj80
      “At least nothing so bad as the sign i saw on a we buy gold sign today… gold prices at 3 month highs, come sell today!”
      Some of those places only pay 40-50% of spot for gold.  Maybe they upped that to 50-60%?  lol

    • @Ed_B
      In the mall we have a place that pays 65% of spot. Still a big rip-off… 

    • @undeRGRound
      “In the mall we have a place that pays 65% of spot. Still a big rip-off…”
      Yeah, that is bad.  Less than that is just plain ugly.  But people keep offering it and some who don’t know the value of what they have keep accepting these low-ball offers.  They’re gonna regret that one of these days.

  10. I’d like to share a voice of reason:
    I can I agree with Richard Duncan about for about 99% of what he says. He is well spoken while not being biased, egotistical or hysterical like the regulars. Ironically, that makes his disaster scenarios far more scary than anything I have read on SD. A great one hour!
    Items worth noting are a libertarian Fed destroying gold back system may be a transition that the human race could not survive through. Global depression and austerity/famine would be immediate. We are about 20 years too late to even consider this. Also the world labor market deflation has been grossly underestimated by our sector. With an estimated 45 trillion of global derivative turnover per DAY that is completely unregulated, there is no wonder asset prices are not behaving how we expect them. This is a market force beyond the manipulation theories I read here. Real money (gold and silver) have no place in this economic universe of $700 trillions extensions. For those who believe this economic propaganda alone is crazy. I believe the PM markets and big money are telling us the world may not survive a PM price spike. Take your silver, find a mothership and leave to start a new world in another solar system.

    • kintama … “I’d like to share a voice of reason”
      That ‘voice of reason’ left out a critical element bearing on all these slick, coy excuses for Plantation Scrip ‘money’ … which is the ‘price fixing’ of money itself. By ‘fixing’ the price of, say lumber, all the intimate economic sectors touching the commodity become hideously distorted. When that ‘fixing’ is forced on the central media of exchange, the resulting distortion immediately affects … everything.

      So, may I similarly invite you to ‘Take your paper stamps, find a mothership and leave to start a new world in another solar system’ because unbiased analysis proves that it’s economically … lethal … on this one. Certainly, you can print enough of them to ‘afford’ it.

    • @PatFields
      What’s with the antagonism?  
      Of course there is price fixing. What part of “we haven’t had a free market in over 100 years” didn’t you understand or did you even watch it all? Its pretty fundamental in our day and age that those with the power of credit creation dictate our world. We all know this. You think the peanut market of lumbar (or precious metals for that matter) are going collapse a house of cards by the powers at be. Of course not. Anyone with half a brain knows this. In fact, the whole video is about price distortion of fiat money .
      With this half of brain, we know that money supply has absolutely nothing to do with current gold prices and hasn’t for quite a while. With the credit expansion through the 80s-00′, a true free market would have had the metals go right along with it. I believe once we passed the millennium and over the counter derivatives got really out of control, some big money got nervous how bad credit expansion got. Traditional theory would say precious metals would be the smart play because hyperinflation is certain and inevitable. The last two years have shown we are past the point of no return and precious metal prices don’t matter anymore as credit can seemingly expand without consequence in this distorted economic reality. I’m a precious metal investor but I know there are not guarantees. Thus I may look for that solar system after all…you can keep the bank notes. 
      Your Real Bill of credit theory would essentially eradicate every bank on the planet while making all trade internal creditors. Its a utopian fantasy where gold and silver save the day. This would essentially over through every major world power. Last I checked, world power transactions don’t change peacefully. The industrial era was corrupt and so was feudalism. Corruption is an inherent human condition and the methods to destroy each other are easier than ever. 

    • kintama … “Of course there is price fixing. What part of “we haven’t had a free market in over 100 years” didn’t you understand”
      Ever since gold was ‘fixed’ at 20 ‘dollars’ an ounce in 1789, we haven’t had a truly Free Market. A finer point I was raising that plainly seems is lost on you.
      “With the credit expansion through the 80s-00′, a true free market would have had the metals go right along with it.”
      A shame your admitted half-brain didn’t learn that 800 gold and 50 silver in 1980 … DID … equate with the quantity of banknotes. That’s what scared the crap out of the bankers and led to this ‘castle-siege’ mentality of theirs ever since.
      “Your Real Bill of credit theory would essentially eradicate every bank on the planet … Its a utopian fantasy”
      Fantasy? First, know of what you utter. The Real Bill Doctrine isn’t my idea, it was popularized by Adam Smith in 1776 and propelled both the British and American Industrial Revolutions to their heights. It doesn’t replace Loan at Interest as you oddly presume, but rather routes costs of producer credit away from circulation and consumption, keeping it within the production environment, so undiminished circulation supports maximal trade volume.

      While I wish banks could be altogether eliminated, they serve enough useful functionality to be grudgingly tolerated (under eternally suspicious glare). In fact, at the height of Real Bill usage, they were the most covetously sought-after asset class by the banks, as their risk-reward parameters are so far superior to all other credit conveyance instruments. Thus, banks were assured of very safe sources of ‘discounting’ which kept their revenue streams constant. It wasn’t until the late 1850s when banks again began issuing large quantities of Bills of Credit, that widespread corruption began infecting society.

      Your other self-destructive presumption, that governments are powerful, stems from your abject failure to understand why and how every man and woman are the equals of governments in their private jurisdictions as self-governing people. You demean your fellows, yet ironically, you’re no more or less so conceived in your own ‘style’.

    • @PatFields 
      “Ever since gold was ‘fixed’ at 20 ‘dollars’ an ounce in 1789, we haven’t had a truly Free Market”.
      225 years of manipulated precious metals markets and still a great preservation of wealth? Thanks for the history lesson but who’s point are you proving?
      “A shame your admitted half-brain didn’t learn that 800 gold and 50 silver in 1980 … DID … equate with the quantity of banknotes”
      So this is what your think happen…a spontaneous temporary free market in the metals only to be shut down by the evil banks. Um..nah. $850 would still be considered undervalued (especially in accordance to your 1789 date). Inflation was a different animal during this time. The metals were NEVER in control. 
      “It doesn’t replace Loan at Interest as you oddly presume, but rather routes costs of producer credit away from circulation and consumption, keeping it within the production environment, so undiminished circulation supports maximal trade volume.”
      The “Loan at Interest” monopoly is supposedly replaced and I don’t see that happening anytime soon. We also need to assume that precious metals are in the hands of people and not within banks or government (this headline would say otherwise!). You can argue that this system is built upon a lack of circulated gold (allowing metals to chaperone commerce on the side) the current lopsided distribution of gold currently keeps this monopoly. I don’t really trust any figures on where gold standings are today. RBD is a great way to extend credit without actual inflation. End line consumption seems to have a far more dramatic impact upon deflation as liquidating credit is entirely built upon this. 
      As far as being conceived in my own ‘style’, lets just say I’m hardly convinced by what I’m reading here. The self-destructive presumption is not my own. People speak of bullets and necessary tangibles as the likely reserve currency in their ‘self-governing’ scenarios. World powers exchanges hardly transition peacefully. If you find this demeaning, you should as I do too as a fellow human. 

    • kintama … (Example) “The “Loan at Interest” monopoly is supposedly replaced”
      Sir (or Madam), meaning no disrespect, but you can neither read nor write intelligibly. You’ve presumptively strung out disjoint notions hung on inaccurately contrived deductions from what you wrongly think you’d read. None of which makes logical sense.

  11. Turd. Here’s 50cents. Please go immediately to the closest pay phone and call your Mother. Tell her there is serious doubt as to whether you are going to make it as a pm’s analyst.Would you like paper or plastic sir? Cheers from a jilted silver lover.

  12. I’ve been thrown out of better bars than this POS dump, sez. Bay of Pigs.   I guess you can count your good fortune and abilities to sniff out BS, if you get banned from Turd’s site, or ZH or Bix.   I wonder what it takes to get shunned from Jim Willie’s   

    • @AGXIIK 
      At least BIX is offering an RTR silver round to new subscribers! 
      That is the ONLY ONE with a truly different viewpoint than you can get from any pay site LOL
      I’d like to see them throw us out of a bar, you, piggy and i  ;)

  13. BTW  just an errant thought
    13 months ago silver was hard to find, had premiums of $2-4 an ounce and you had to generally wait 3-6 weeks for delivery  A very unnatural situation.  Now you can get silver delivery quickly with a premium of 65 cents to $1 over spot, sometimes with free shipping
    Tulving crashes, Hommel is gone, probably many other businesses like this failed, thinking if they bought low and the prices went back to $26-28, they would clean up without worrying about hedging.  But even with $2-3 variations in spot price over the last few months, a business would find it hard to make enough profit to stay in business.  
    This leads me to speculate the LCS and bullion stores are buying product well below spot and marking it up for immediate sale or just trying to hold on for dear life like any merchant who bought to high and gets hammered even on small cycles of price ups and downs.  It is hard to start or maintain a business in a profitable mode if the prices dont give the merchant a decent liveable profit.  I’m not saying this is sustainable since $2 swings in price to a business that has to have $2 profit margin is not going to be able to profit on holding inventory.  Selling below spot sounds like desperation.
    I dont see a real supply crunch so if the vaults are empty the dealers might still have to hang on for many months.

    • I have been trying to get this through some of the hard heads here for a month or more…silver is available and at lower and lower premiums!  The LCS try to mix in their older, higher priced inventory with their recent purchases to “average down” and keep from taking too big of a loss (or a loss at all).  It kills their profit % but keeps them afloat, at least for a little while, and they are mixing it in and selling it as fast as they can get it out the door but I would ASS U ME that they have worked through quite a bit of it since the price has languished in this 19.50-20.50 for a few months now so the ones still going will probably make it???  Most of the ones still standing are the older guys who know the biz and try to keep  their inventory at an acceptable level vs. taking positions hoping the market finally runs up 5.00…and they don’t buy large volumes w/o pricing it at a 1-2% off of the big local wholesaler so they can always dump it off on them and keep themselves whole.
      I still think this summer is going to be bad but who the f… knows anymore???  And I have always said the Turd is nothing but a turd, hell I have been in it longer than he has and I didn’t get my account stolen ;)   IMHO, anyone who reads him for anything other than entertainment purposes has either lost a LOT of $$$$ or is sitting on DEAD money (same difference, or maybe dead money is almost worse)!  I read one of the posts on here stating the person is happy sitting on his $34 silver, that is asinine!  Who would be happy sitting on a 75% loss????  Sorry, but I have never been able to get that out of my head and lots of others agreed??? Crazy! Not that I would take it now, but it should have been gone a year (or more) ago so accept you made a rookie mistake and move on but don’t make statements like that because they are ridiculous and you may lead another to make the same mistake…I can almost promise you that there will be chances to get back in if the market makes a move…if it runs so far that you can’t get back in then the best idea is probably to wait until it breaks and then decide whether you want to get back in or use the opportunity to sell some that you have into strength and not into a weak market…

    • My local brick and mortar shop here takes larger ASE orders based on spot plus and then immediately calls his distributer for delivery to the shop. Typically these are delivered within 2 days and no one complains as the delivery delay is stated ahead of time.  Basically this is acting as a middleman so there is never a loss on these transactions.

      Small sales are to those which happen with walk-in customers and thus have to be done out of the dealer’s inventory. Premiums are higher to cover the risks of holding for these smaller sales. If lucky they will get many of these from walk-in sellers that need quick money and sell for or under spot …. another source of profit if he can flip them quickly (sometimes to other local dealers or a smelter).

      The idea, as coinbuysell said, is to keep the inventory under control and move as much product as you can …. you can’t sit on much of it IF you want to stay in business. (Note: Most dealers aren’t in it to stack silver themselves but rather just to make a few easy bucks.)

    • coinbuysell … “I read one of the posts on here stating the person is happy sitting on his $34 silver, that is asinine!  Who would be happy sitting on a 75% loss????”
      You say these things because you measure your world in banknotes. The reason you crave banknotes is because their purchase power constantly shrinks … forcing … you into a helter-skelter rat-race trader’s existence.

      I’m one of those you castigate for having taken in a few ounces at 34 banknotes a year or so ago. Yet, it’s funny, you know, I haven’t ‘lost’ a micro-grain of what I WANT to keep … which is the SILVER.

      From my perspective, you’re rather the fool for wanting paper chits, because the genuine, mathematically indicated possibility of those stupid damned things instantaneously falling 90 to 95 percent in purchase power is a ‘fat finger’ away from happening … intentionally, this time … to send all markets into a zero-bid state of ‘deep-freeze’.

      Also, from my perch, all your successes as a good trader are about to face a totally new environment, rendering your study and practice irrelevant and outmoded. If maybe you’re seeing that creeping onset somewhere in your subconscious, it might explain why you’re so disdainful of folks with an opposite outlook. There WILL be fewer ‘players’ in your ‘trading game’ to fleece.

      I’ll post this again, since it again fits …

      “The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.” Rothschilds of London (1863)

    • “The idea, as coinbuysell said, is to keep the inventory under control and move as much product as you can …. you can’t sit on much of it IF you want to stay in business.”
      That is true in many businesses.  Inventory control is a VERY big deal in a lot of businesses, particularly if they have to borrow money to finance their inventory.

    • @coinbuysell
      CBS, you’re my favorite newby-homey here @SD! 
      Still can’t figure you out, but your commentary as ALWAYS Interesting! 
      CBS Likes Knives, PMs and (I think?) GUNS, Too!  

  14. @Canadian Dirtlump
    A Bit off-topic here, but can’t figure out how to get this system to let me send you a private message:
    Regarding your ZeroHedge comment regarding Tesla Motors…
    Be careful selling Tesla short.  What few people realize about Tesla Motors is that the founder, Elon Musk was the cofounder of PayPal with none other than Peter Thiel.  Peter Thiel did PayPal to give the globalists a massive insight into online payments and transfers of money around the world.  Peter is now the head of the steering committee for the Bilderberg group.  Whatever your views are of that organization, there is NO QUESTION that they ARE the moneyed, power elites of the world and I am sure that Tesla has become their stock market baby. Think of them as the TSLA PPT!  They WON’T let it fail.

  15. Another indication that the gold vaults are dredging their bottom shelves and sweeping minute chips from the floors is this high SGR of 67.5 and rising. They WANT folks who MUST raise banknotes to deal with Industrial Monopolist food, utility, insurance, and finance ‘enforcers’, to use their gold for the purpose.

    While indications are that the pressure is much higher in the gold sector, I don’t put an iota of credence into the propaganda that the banker-brokers have any ‘strategic stockpile’ of physical silver amassed. If that were so, Shanghai’s vaults wouldn’t have been drained like a sieve in the last few months … the deals would have been done at a lower premium on the US exchanges. No, any such ‘stockpile’ is composed of paper chits.

    I continue to believe that the ‘turn around’ in the PM arena is much closer than many ‘burned’ professional prognosticators are now resigning themselves to. After all, I’ve got no subscribers whose feathers need smoothing or remunerative reputation to defend. In that sense, it’s great to be an obscure regular guy just mouthing off.

    • My sense is that we are close to something turbulent.  Thurs AM, I watched the US Dollar get hammered down on USDX and gold get whacked at pretty damned close to the same time.  If that isn’t an indicator that something is awry… there are just too many pieces to the puzzle being juggled in the air for me to think that there aren’t a few bulkheads springing some significant leaks in the cartel lifeboats….

    • @PatFields
      “No, any such ‘stockpile’ is composed of paper chits.”
      I agree, Pat, and let me add, in my very best Hispanic accent, that this is, indeed, a lot of “chit”!  ;-)
      “I continue to believe that the ‘turn around’ in the PM arena is much closer than many ‘burned’ professional prognosticators are now resigning themselves to.”
      That seems reasonable, although, like you, I also have no proof of this other than the financial hairs are standing up on the back of my neck.  They seldom do this, so when they do, I pay attention to them.

    • Ed_B … “like you, I also have no proof”
      I’m looking at this scenario much the same as a jurist would in trying to reason out a crime alleged against someone. There isn’t any one fact that ties the guy to the event except opportunity and motive … but there’s one hell of a lot of circumstantial evidence pointing directly at that SOB and no one else.

      Ed, you may be a well intentioned panel member on this jury, still not totally convinced, but from where I sit at the table it’s … guilty as charged.

    • That would be a good bet, Pat, as I am almost always “well intentioned”.  :-)
      As avid readers, many of us have read TONS of items on the Internet.  A lot of these are complete BS that we recognize almost immediately.  Others seem a little flaky but we’re willing to consider the possibility that they may be true.  A few of these things are most definitely true, some of which are well documented.  The things that are not well documented but which mesh quite well with human nature and our experience seem plausible even though we do not have direct proof.  Either there is no proof or it has been well hidden.  We rely on our innate sense of reason and believability to formulate a judgement.  Few of us will or can draw such a line in the exact same place.  It is terribly easy to become jaded and cynical in these things and assume the absolute worst in others.  It is good to refrain from doing that insofar as is possible, IMO, as that can say much more about us than it does about the original question.

  16. Regarding Turd’s blog, I like that Turd has created his forum and there is much good information on his blog, thanks to a wide variety of visitors*.  Yes there is ‘group-think’ there, but we have that here on SD as well.
    Whenever you read other people’s opinions, it is up to YOU to sort through them all and then make your own decision about how to proceed.  For those who bought PM’s at a high price thanks to someone else’s projections – remember that nobody forced you to buy, and you are now the wiser.
    *Plus, I always receive lots of ‘hat-tips’ (i.e.; ‘thumbs-up’) which boosts my Mammoth ego.

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