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gold bullTurd Ferguson joins the SD Weekly Metals & Markets as a special guest host this week! We discuss:

  • Blythe Masters joins the CFTC for 12 hours to advise on Swaps regulation- TF lets loose on the audacity of the criminal banksters
  • Price trends in precious metals and fundamental underpinnings going forward
  • The Doc’s retail market report- big money is buying physical with both hands
  • Turd Ferguson on the “end game” of the “Great Keynesian Experiment”- TF calls for gold to break its 100 DMA to the upside next week, gold & silver to challenge $1525 and $26 in 2014.

Turd Ferguson discusses market manipulation & his outlook for the metals on the SD Weekly Metals & Markets!

2014 Silver Maples With Security Mint Mark
As Low As $1.99 Over Spot at SDBullion!

Don’t you just love it when the powers that be rub corruption in our face?  How on earth could anyone within the bureaucracies and power structure of Washington, D.C. not know there would be a backlash against having the most notorious wench of the derivatives market serve as a consultant to the CFTC?  Some have speculated that Masters’ nomination could even be an overt message that the powers that be wish to send:  a hearty “fukk you,” as ZeroHedge speculated.  It’s more likely hubris.  These handmaidens to plutocratic “special interests” simply don’t think like you and the average person on the street.  Law?  Ethics?  That’s for the little people.  There’s screwing of the middle class to be done.  Sit down.  Shut-up.

Well, the corruption across the political divide is so pronounced at this decrepit stage that people are speaking up.  Let’s hope (and make happen) that accelerates this election year.  The Blythe saga is indicative of an issue of right and wrong, not ideological perspectives of right and left.  The United States was founded on the “rule of law,” and crony capitalism can not be permitted to destroy what makes this nation great.  Seeing the wench of derivatives slither away given public protest is a tiny victory for sanity and the rule of law.  That’s the take-home message precious metals investors should ponder this weekend.

We briefly discussed how corruption is pervasive across the entire government.  If you think this weeks’ CFTC move was bad, click here and check out Catherine Engelbrecht’s 7 minute testimony about the IRS, FBI, ATF and OSHA.  Her experience is not an isolated incident.  It’s happening to hundreds of people and organizations across America.

Back to the markets. . .

Yellen ballon

We’ve had numerous indications that the economy was starting to roll over at least as early as November, and now it’s showing up in back-to-back employment report disappointments.  The orgy of buying in the equities market closing out 2013 in hindsight looks more like a speculative blow-off as the days and weeks of 2014 pass.  But it’s still likely that we’ll see another wave of general US equity market purchases lasting for many weeks before all markets deal with the reality of tapering.  I still view the March through end of June window as a high probability time-frame for a sizable correction in equities.  I expect ten year bond rates to move consistently higher — well past 3%.  Eventually, that will freak-out Janet Yellen and her Fed pals and we’ll see more accommodation from the Fed this summer.  Some of the pump priming will likely be fiscal stimulus, such as a partial debt forgiveness proposal applied to the student loan bubble, which is now well over the trillion dollar mark.  The Fed will probably do one or two more $10 billion taper moves, with an increasing emphasis on tapering of MBS junk versus Treasury purchases.  The Fed can’t taper too much when it comes to Treasury purchases because there is simply insufficient organic demand for US long-term debt.

gold

 

silver

Despite clearly visible cartel footprints this week, gold and silver continue to see sufficient buying interest on short-term dips.  That suggests higher prices are likely in the not too distant future.  As Turd discusses, it’s highly probable that gold’s 100 day moving average will decline in the near-term, with gold crossing the average and moving higher still over the course of this month.  The cartel has not been able to make any meaningful push to the downside, while continued aggressive accumulation of physical points to higher precious metals prices.

Now that the master Olympic torch is lit, perhaps it’s time to catch an Olympics competition or two and forget about the markets for a while.  Enjoy the weekend!  — Eric Dubin


Image Credits:  WilliamBanzai7

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    • Gold @ 1500—–Yippie!
      C’mon…Eric Sprott says $2000 and even David Morgan is saying $1700…..
      I’m not even greedy or in any kind of hurry…and I’m thinking closer to 2k….what about all the outstanding December Gold….can Feb Gold be delivered….are we going to start hearing about cash settlements moving into April??? 
      So how many MT of Gold went to China in January??  
      How many MT’s cam out of the ground??? 

      Seriously–soon as there word spreds there is no Phyzz Gold moving….that cash settlements are being forced on peeps…this gig  up…and so is the spot price of Gold……
       

    • @4 oz:  TF is purposefully being conservative.  He notes that in the interview.  Nothing wrong with being conservative.  I think there’s a good chance we take out the old highs in 2014, but $1700 would be a typical reversion trend and that’s party why David Morgan picks that number.  $1700 has much higher probability of being hit versus taking out the old highs:  north of 85% in my view.
       
      China consumed more than 400 MT in January.  I don’t know the monthly global extraction rates off the top of my head.  There’s some fluctuation based on the seasons and locations of mines and other factors.  But if you take last year’s roughly estimated 2,900 metric tons production and divide by 12 you get 241.7 tons per month. 
       

    • Lex, Been here on this site now going on three years. I poke a lot of fun at it as always as the rhetoric gets really stale. The Doc really tries hard to please and soothe the masses but it’s always the same ole same ole. I just keep up with what is actually going on outside the box and hopefully my stack will put my grandchildren free of world tyranny. 

    • @Flying Wombat
       
      “But if you take last year’s roughly estimated 2,900 metric tons production and divide by 12 you get 241.7 tons per month.”
       
      I would agree that China’s gold production figures are completely unknown outside their leadership group.  Are they still calling that the “politburo” or some such throwback to Russian style communism or do they have a new name these days? In any case, gold production and buying figures are state secrets, probably at the same level as the number and location of their nukes, so they do not release that info to the press or anyone else.  That said, a production figure approaching 3,000 metric tons would be HUGE.  Isn’t the annual world gold production excluding Russia and China around 75M ounces?  That would be around 2,330 tons.
       

    • @ Eric FW—Not in ANY way taking a shot at FT…love the guy to death.  My comment above had more to do with the (!) at the end of the headline….$1500 Gold got an (!) mark….just found that funny…  as we see headlines about Sinclair or someone saying $50,000 gold with the same (!)…..

  1. If $1525.00 for gold and $26.00 for silver are the hopeful targets this year, then the metals were a most sorry investment of my money for sure. If and when the metals ever do get going to their true values, the tax man will be sure to come along and take a hefty chunk of the profits leaving us right back where we started. Who can make war against the Beast?

  2. Screw taxes or capital gains on precious metal sales.  That’s the first salvo
    The second is simple.
    The stock and bond markets, for several reasons, including earnings that cannot support prices, emerging markets crashing, the 14 year head and shoulders secular bear market topping out, QE taper fiascos, interest rates threatening to break out, and the government’s clear and present danger to all paper accounts, compels the argument:  Where does one place their stack of cash in challenging times? 
      Buying precious metals  now,  with a 25-50% gain by year end will be an excellent investment whether cashed in or not.
      $1,700 gold will make most investors who bought in a couple of years ago at a break even point, giving them some peace of mind whether they cash in or not. 
    If  gold and silver are seen as an insurance and not a profit-making investment, then the funds in gold and silver are well placed, reasonable and sound in their presence in a person’s portfolio. 
    Money spend on insurance to PROTECT long term wealth is prudent for anyone who has something to protect.   Insurance is seldom a good return except for the insurance firm itself. 
     When the time comes that the insurance bought to protect us pays off in its utility;  it’s ability to save our wealth and even our very lives, then we will think of ourselves as geniuses for being so prudent.
    Therefore I stack
    So long as the government is in session we are not safe. The government is set up to take, take and take more until there is nothing left to steal, and then it steals more.
    At the  present times we are in terrible danger from a government that considers us as nothing more or less than an economic unit to be sliced, diced and even exterminated without  a single thought as to our lives and even our souls. 
    We are on our own when rapacious governments are out of control.  Self protect is not an option; it’s mandatory.  But only we can make that decision.
    If a person does not see that then nothing is a good investment.

    • @AGXIIK
       
      “…the 14 year head and shoulders secular bear market topping out…”
       
      So, how does a market rise of 30% in 2013 figure into this?  True, it was helicopter Ben at the helm of that escapade but those who profited from that 30% rise only know that for every $100k  they had invested in late 2012, it became $130k or so by the end of 2013.  If that is a bear market, I will take that anytime!
       
      Truth be told, we have had 2 vicious bear markets in the past 13 years… one in 2001 and one in 2008.  Years 2003-07 were very good for investors.  2009-11 were pretty good, and 2012 was flat.  But one HAD to be invested to harvest any of those gains.
       
      My bottom line is that it is good to make money in the US stock market but to SAVE it for the long-term requires buying PMs with those profits.
       

  3. “soon as there word spreds there is no Phyzz moving…that cash settlements are being forced on peeps…this gig up”
    I would highly suggest throwing this pipe dream scenario out the window, and focusing on the economic fundamentals for the PM market.
    There is a reason why Turd is calling for $26 silver for the end of the year and calling it a “great performance”, because he knows the economic fundamentals behind gold/silver are NOT so good at the moment.
    Do you notice the main thing that never happens when PM bulls talk about the PM market today?   They NEVER mention the word inflation, why?  Because despite the massive amount of global QE the last 5 years, we don’t have the inflation.  Why have the US the Euro investors got out of gold the last 2-3 years?     They don’t feel or fear inflation, that needs to change if PM’s are to trade higher in the future.
     
     

    • “There is a reason why Turd is calling for $26 silver for the end of the year and calling it a “great performance”, because he knows the economic fundamentals behind gold/silver are NOT so good at the moment.”
       
      That’s incorrect. You don’t know much about Turd Ferguson. I was a member over there for a long time and he wouldn’t agree with anything you said. zman, why not read AG’s comment right above you, and actually learn something here?  Your chatter about “no inflation” falls on deaf ears around here because we know that isn’t the case or the reason why PM’s have been hammered lower. Interest rates (ZIRP), and manipulation (via HFT and algo’s) are the things you should be looking at, not just inflation.

    • @Bay-of-Pigs
      “Your chatter about “no inflation” falls on deaf ears around here”
      No it doesn’t, FYI Doc and/or Flying Wombat have agreed with me on this issue, the inflation never materialized as expected, but COULD down the road if Fed or fiscal policy changes down the road.  
      “manipulation (via HFT and algo’s) are the things you should be looking at)”
      Maybe physical demand and supply should be studied, why did Turd mention the potential increase for silver demand if India starts to build more solar panals?    Because the increase in silver demand would move the price higher, it’s physical demand which moves the price, not some paper trading game.  Guess what happens if India can’t get silver for their solar panels at $20 oz?   The price moves higher, a paper market can’t change that fact.
       

    • Laughable on its face. You should do stand up.
       
      And I have never seen Doc or Wombat ever agree with you on anything concerning the gold and silver market, let alone your ridiculous position on inflation. And nice dodge on the TF comment I nailed you on.

    • @Bay of Pigs
      Just ignore the zeroman, his poisonous psyop linguistic stance is aimed at the casual reader of this blog and not those that write regularly.  His/Her/It’s aim is to place the notion that the same people guilty of rigging LIBOR, FOREX, and other markets are not guilty of rigging the commodities markets.  Hid/Her/It’s aim is to provide justification for the current prices stating utter nonsense like the fundamentals are not good.
      You know this is incorrect as do many others here, but as I stated, his/her/it’s aim is to adjust the perception of the casual reader and not yourself.  I would advise any casual reader to recognise the zeroman as a psyop shill, not a troll, but one paid to operate against you.  “Go long on the $US” was one of his most recent poisonous phrases.
      The fact remains that the PM market is a feature of ‘the tail wagging the dog’.  The paper momentum monkeys (amoral pawns of the banking mafia) set the price without any metal ever being exchanged.  Cash settlement far outweighs any movement of metal between these amoral momentum monkeys.
      Keep preppin, including stacking some physical PMS.

    • “I have never seen Doc or Wombat every agree with you on anything concerning the gold or silver market, let alone your ridiculous position on inflation”    
      Well, you must have missed it then.  Wombat agreed that inflation is NOT the issue yet, but if bank lending increases, and the velocity of money increases, then inflation will become a major concern.  We have discussed the issue on many different occasions, the disagreement we have is I don’t think credit creation will happen for many years if NOT longer, he thinks it will happen in 2014.
      “Nice dodge on the TF comment I nailed you on”
      If TF disagrees with me, that’s fine,  you didn’t nail anything.
      @coppersterling
      “to adjust the perception of the casual reader”
      Really?   So if someone questions Comex default, Dollar going to collapse, bond market blow up, they are the ones trying “to adjust the perception of the casual reader”?   Maybe it’s the other way around.
      These are theories with NO evidence behind them, they are predictions and nothing more.   Fundamentals rule the market, make your case.

    • @zeroman.  I’ve never noticed your questioning of theories such as Comex defaults, not that I am interested in pure theories either, but I have noticed your stance that the commodities markets are not manipulated.
      Is that the case zeroman.  Do you, or do you not believe there is significant paper trading driving the price of precious metals? Do you believe the same bullion banks found guilty of Fraud in LIBOR, the FOREX exchange, miss-selling and other financial crimes are not engaged in commodity price fixing?
      “Fundamentals rule the market”.  I totally agree with this statement.  Problem is the fundamentals can be masked and managed via perception.  But I suppose you’d know that considering your vocation, zeroman.
      Keep stacking the physical folks, and don’t forget the other stuff too (water, food, ammo etc). 

    • In fact (excuse the pun) zeroman, let’s put all the theories to one side for a moment and examine, well, the facts.
      Fact1:  The currency systems of the world are all fiat.
      Fact2: No fiat currencies developed prior to 1971 are still in existence
      Fact3: History gives the current crop of fiat currencies zero chance of success – over time
      Fact4:  History also shows the primary medium-of-exchanges have been physical gold, silver, copper, and their alloy physical cousins.
      Fact5:  The banksters have been found guilty of rigging LIBOR, miss-selling products, and rigging the FOREX exchange.
      Now facts aside, and back to theory.  It really isn’t too much stretch of the imagination to theoretically assume that the current crop of fiats will fail (just like every other fiat in history), that gold, silver, and copper will again be used as the primary medium-of-exchange (as shown throughout history), and that the banksters will be found guilty of rigging the PM markets (as they’ve been shown countless times in recent history to be criminal enterprises).
      So the casual reader can indeed make up their mind, but as YOU imply there is no rigging, that PMs are a bad insurance/investment, and to have faith in the fiat dollar, I really would advise them to ignore you and your poisoned words.
       

    • @coppersterling
      “your stance that the commodities markets are not manipulated”   I believe that nothing can manipulate a physical market, maybe trading can distort a market in the short term (weeks or month), but over time the physical market rules.
      All commodities are down since 2011, do you really think anything could suppress the price of corn, wheat, rice, sugar, oil, nat gas, copper, lead, zinc, tin, or nickel at the same time?    They are all down because of the same reason why gold and silver are down, weaker physical demand.    Are there any shortages of any of those commodities?   No.
      “do you not believe there is significant paper trading driving the price of precious metals?”    I don’t consider a investor who is long a futures contract to be a gold investor, they are a paper speculator.  If they don’t take physical gold out of the market, why would you expect them to make the gold price go higher?     I don’t.    The physical market moves the paper market, NOT the other way around.
      “fundamentals can be masked and managed”       Not for long,  “big money” doesn’t get masked for very long, gold and silver are physical global markets, you can’t fool all the bright minds with big money, fundamentals always win.
      Trying to draw a conclusion that since LIBOR manipulation took place (which is 100% a paper market), then the gold/silver markets are also manipulated is a huge mistake.   Gold/silver are physical markets, there is NO comparion to be made.
      Maybe we can have a civil discourse about the subject matter, have some disagreements WITHOUT using insults in the future.
       

    • @zeroman
      You wrote, “I believe that nothing can manipulate a physical market, maybe trading can distort a market in the short term (weeks or month), but over time the physical market rules.”
      I agree with this bar the brackets.  A market can be manipulated for significant periods of time not just weeks or months.  It is done in the PM markets(as you know, or at least SHOULD know) via perception.  Take the simple of example of dropping a load of paper shorts onto the market to lower the price and trigger the actions of the emotional momentum paper monkeys.  The emotional (bankster pawn) momentum monkeys see the action and also sell, which in turn triggers the emotions of the ‘weak hands’ that offload their stack on feebay or other mediums, which results in metals changing hands BETWEEN the people rather than fresh supply being utilised.  It’s a sequential manipulation, and not as direct and simplistic as your explanation (understanding?) implies. 
      There are a variety of techniques to utilize in the context of a variety of products and services, but the one mentioned above is particularly salient to the gold and silver market.
      We’ll use yet another simple example of paper manipulation of markets – housing.  Take the polar opposite examples of everyone in the area/region/country being accepted for a mortgage application, to mortgages not existing for anyone at all.  In which scenario would house prices be extremely high?  Obviously the former.  This obviously isn’t reality, and the truth is there is a variance in mortgage applications both being made and granted (which significantly affects the price of houses).  Housing, and construction in general, is made from what?  – well a variety of commodities including a few of the ones you mentioned above.
      I do, however, agree with your original statement that reality (i.e. true physical demand) rules, but to believe this cannot and is not manipulated for periods far more significant than weeks or months (as you believe) is a purely fallacious notion.  It’s true pure paper products are more easily manipulated  by the criminals in Wall Street and the City of London, and that is why they’d rather heard us into such investment vehicles (such as $US-denominated products, eg ETFs, pensions etc), but they can certainly influence tangible items – and they do frequently..
      So, to conclude, your capitalised “NO comparison can be made” between paper manipulation of paper products and paper manipulation of tangible products is a little short sighted and naive for the reasons explained above (plus so many more by-the-way).

    • @zman:  What I agreed with you on was that velocity of money never stoked inflation because reserves held at the Fed for banks.  I never bought into the idea that there was no or super-low inflation.  My view on inflation is in synch with John Williams of Shadow Stats.  I’ve studied the same “reforms” put in place as he has (Boskin Commission, etc.), and I agree with his methodology.  Most of the entire world, however, have bought into the perception of sub 2% inflation.  That, combined with direct suppression of bond interest rates that impact all other interest rates leads to a masterful distortion of reality that, unfortunately, most people either believe in, or for the savvy bond traders, they recognize but don’t care because they know they can range trade the long-end products because the Fed still “has their back”.”
       
      This successful suppression of awareness of inflation (other than grandma at the grocery story spending her fixed income) is indeed part of the reason why gold and silver have been easy to manipulate.
       

    • @coppersterling
      Proper format would be to actually reference someones real screen name if you expect to see a reply.
       
      I personally think if their is manipulation it would lend itself to the london fix which is done in a similar mechanism to how the libor rates were set.  That process opens the window for manipulation, it is not talked about here because it is not a mass dumping of orders.
       
      If anyone wanted the globex system tracks every order and can pull those on demand.  Why did we not see anything published from these in all of the manipulation cases?
       
      I further think silver would be a much harder mkt to manipulate with many users of the metal needing to hedge this usage, pumping the price down would be met with this long term buying.  Gold is a bit different, but the price is low, and comex stocks are leaving, if they keep leaving prices will go higher, that doesn’t mean that they are manipulated.  If you claim it is, then silver stocks increasing is also manipulation?  Two different metals with two different fundamental stories right now.

    • When the fuel for MANIP-MANOP is expended, all these “arguments” will evaporate as well. 
      MOPEdamentals (fundamentals of Perceived Economics) will fail, these are just buying time. 
      The “new money” (for which “printing” is a euphemism) is being issued to TBTF Banks, and 
      then it is parked at the F’ed Reserve where they pay a rate above the ZIRP! What big bank 
      would NOT jump on that? The F’ed does this to keep us away from runaway inflation. Just 
      the MONEY “PRINTING” ALONE would normally drive up inflation and PM prices right along 
      with it! No denying these facts, they are easily verified. Manipulation of the PMs is required 
      on the other side of the teeter-totter to maintain equilibrium. 
      EVEN IF THEY COULD GET THIS CRAZY SCHEME TO WORK ITSELF OUT, the fact 
      remains, it is pure manipulation. Our total economy is based on MANIP-MANOP 
      1000%! Even George Orwell would be flabbergasted…

    • We don’t have inflation? What world are you living in? Everything is higher every time I grocery shop, my heat bills are higher, electric rates went up, heard my phone package is going up, Sat TV is going up… I call that pretty severe inflation

    • (Popping popcorn in my mouth) “That was (crunch, crunch) pretty damn entertaining! 
       
      I’ll try not to fan the flames much myself, but I have to laugh at the rise in inflation (or suggestion of the lack thereof)
      In year 2000 I was going to college (late bloomer I know) and I practically lived on tuna fish.  It was .33 a can.
      Today it is 1.33 at Walmart (per can).  Please, tomorrow go out and price a can of tuna.  It will be very close to that; perhaps a 1.20 where you live?  My point?
      400% food inflation in 13 years. (actually that was last years price… I stopped buying tuna)
      Supply and demand?  Perhaps American’s just developed a love affair with the “Chicken of the Sea”?  Perhaps the ocean is all dried up?  Funny,  I am a Merchant Sailor and in 2012 I sailed in Dutch Harbor for a 2 month stint.  Business was good. No lack of Crab or Pollack.
      The Dollar is SH*T thats why food prices are suffering inflation.  ITS HERE @ZMAN It’s HERE.

    • @MaryB 
      No one denies consumers are getting raped with higher prices. However, big money doesn’t care about your grocery store experience MaryB. Flat wages, under-employment and flat commodity prices show that big money does not need to hedge. Perhaps in the near future but not today.
       
      This cry on daily volume trading antics (which has always existed even during PM bull runs)is getting tiring. I can believe the paper swaps were a gold smear campaign but so what. I don’t believe ALL commodity prices have been suppressed as a conspiracy by the upper 1% for this extent of time. Gold investors are attached to money supply ratios from 80 years ago and anything below $2000 for spot is a joke. PM investors simply had it wrong…for now

      @Shamus001
      “The Dollar is SH*T thats why food prices are suffering inflation”.
      Does everyone here do their PM research at the grocery store? It’s one indicator of many. Your theory would work well if we only had the dollar to contend with. The dollar get away it because:
      1)     1) Every major currency is crap
      2)     2) We still have the strongest military
      3)     3) We are in a liquidity trap
      4)     4) And unless we start to see some credit expansion in 2014, we are looking at another flat year

    • @Flying-Wombat
      “My view on inflation is in synch with John Williams”       I have no issue with that, I’m more in the middle of the road, I don’t buy into the CPI at 2%, or Williams at 9%, for the consumer I’m at 5%.
      I never said there is “no inflation”, I always stated there is little inflation for “big money/big business”, therefore they don’t seek hedges (gold) for their stocks and bonds.
      Look at the recent inflation data out of the Euro zone,  “inflation in the 18-country bloc fell to 0.7 percent year-on-year in the first month of 2014″   http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-eurozone-inflation-idUSBREA0U0HI20140131

    • @zman
       
      EuroZone is MOPE’ing right along with the U$$A. Actually, they are leading us in MOPE. 
      They went into hyperdrive before the Euro-Trash-Cash was formed. Their money was 
      an attempt to keep the ship from sinking. Maybe a preemptive attempt, but nonetheless…
       
      Zman, have you ever done the math on food inflation? I have, and it is closer to the 10% range. 
      Fuel is a whole other class of inflation, it has been as high as 100-125% just during KLUMMAC’s Reign. 
      I know, food and fuel are not in the CPI. But these impact the bottom line consumers the most. 

  4. @flying-wombat
    Hey Eric, can you tell me what the figure is for the “100 day moving average” ?
    I was hoping that was in the written description, or your comments :D
    I’m swearing off most podcasts, for the time being. Too much recycled material. 
    Not saying that about you and The DOC, I still catch those! 

    • @undeRGRoundClick here.  I love that site.  Best free charts on the net.  You’ll notice the box for “parameters.”  It has “100″ in the box.  It’s usually set to the default of 50 for the 50 day moving average.  You can change it to whatever number you wish.
      Glad you’re still sticking around and listening.  I certainly know how you feel.  I don’t listen to as much stuff as I used too either.  Just don’t have the free time!    :-)    We’ll try to keep things interesting over here.

    • Thanks a Lot, Eric! 
      When our PMs trade sideways for so long, the “news” gets kinda stale. 
      We see dominoes falling, but the scale is so vast, it seems like it’s taking FOREVER! 
      Anyways, I asked you cuz I don’t want to become a “turd-head” LOL

    • PS: After today, we’re only $4 off the 100 DMA! 
      It went up nearly $10 today, it has been (steadily) so low for so long that the MA was almost down near the daily price… 
      I think you and The DOC calling the bottom, well, that is looking pretty solid! TPTB made that a “double bottom” but that 
      is OK also. (Maybe not quite a double bottom, but it nosed down again). 
      PMs (or buyers) just waiting for a convergence of the negative factors, now it’s time to make the 
      MANIP-MANOPpers  really SWEAT! 
       
      oops… here’s that crazy Pic again…

  5. @the-doc  SD website is no longer loading properly on iPads.  Headlines come through, but no text summary of the post.  Started a few days ago.  Happens on different iPads at different locations with different ISP’s.  Could you have your I.T. people take a look please.  Thank you. 

  6. Until the BIG CRASH is here, everything is actually pointless. There is not much downside danger left, people who bought in 30s and 40s have already incorporated all the losses, the ones who bought in low 20s are most probably pretty calm about the whole situation so nothing much is expected in the near term. If the price of silver went $5 up, even $10 or maybe $15, I don’t believe any stacker would sell any of the stuff. We’re all waiting for the big one until then all that mumbo jumbo talk is pretty POINTLESS… So it actually doesn’t matter if the price is $30 or $15 in near term unless you are a trader…
    We all are waiting for the big crash, that’s what we have been preparing for all along, at least I have. If nothing happens, even better because life is now easier than it’s is going to be afterwards. But when it actually happens, we most probably have a head-start… so dismiss all the noise.

    • Timing matters and that is a big difference. Can you imagine have this same conversation for the next 10 years? It could happen. 
       
      The old G-bugs saw gold a wealth preservation and not investments. Investments get returned in currencies. In other words, no one was staring at the markets calling for new highs every six months. 

  7. Here is another way of looking at the ownership of precious metals
    STAY THE COURSE IF:
    1. You believe what the government says is true and accurate
    2. You believe in the sustainability of the US Dollar
    3. You believe debt won’t cause you harm
    4. You believe that the stock market is a good bet
    5. You believe that bonds offer a good return
    6. You believe that inflation poses no threat to you or your family
    7. You believe that taxes are a reasonable extraction of your labor
    8. You believe that the USD is a stable currency
    9. You believe that the government can help in in times of need
    10. You believe that your political leaders have your best interests in mind
    11. You believe that national debt augers well for your kids in the next 2 generations
    12. You believe that your employer cares about your well being
    13. You believe in your ability to predict what the future will hold
    14. You believe that the institutions today will be there for you tomorrow
     I could go on for a while but suggest anyone who reads this—-
    Ask yourself if all of these statements resonates with you and your belief systems
    Are they true to you?
    If some just don’t seem plausible,  then what will you do to protect yourself against that uncertainty.
    If you find that any  three of these beliefs are contrary to yours, then check to see if others are on the edge. 
    I think most of these beliefs are connected in one way or the other.  Each can be connected to 3 others.
    If 3 others connect to the last 9 then serious work needs to be done
    If you are ahead of the curve you are going to be better or than most
    zman.  this is partly for you.  I read what you write.  It lacks any critical thinking.  It consists mostly of ad hominem and an attempt to put words in others mouths.  BOP  and copperstering nail you every time.  You ferret a few factoids out of the welter of data and toss them out in an attempt to make your point
    I don’t care about your scribing on this site.  You have the right to scribe, Doc appears to be willing to allow you to yap on.
    I do care that you have no fallback position.  Maybe I’m just being a bit forgiving today.  Maybe I believe in redemption.
    If someone is paying you to act as a psyops shill I can assure you that your paymaster will cut you loose in a nanosecond once your usefulness is done. You will be on your own. And it’s cold outside.

    Maybe you won’t accept what I say here.
    That’s ok with me. 
     At my home it’s 35 degrees and snowing outside.   That’s reality. Do you have a warm redoubt when the crap hits the fan.
    You’ll need it.  Just remember what I said about 2 months ago when I suggested you get your head on straight. My door won’t be open to the likes of you.
     

    • As far as I can tell, anyone wishing to demoralize SD regulars is doing a pitifully poor job! 
      The markets do a better job, but in reality that is just the tiresome drivel of the media taking it’s toll. 
      If I had the disposable fiat RIGHT NOW, I’d be stacking left and right! Bet on it! Trolls and Trolling are 
      totally ineffective here, unless it hinders new SDers. Hard to say. 
       
      I had a new thought today, and that was maybe the “detractors” at SD might be Harry Dent Disciples… 
      It sure sounds like his stuff. The real problem I have with Harry is that he is living in the PAST. He sees all
      these current events thru the lens of THE PAST. While the overall pattern may hold true, (4 seasons of economies)
      what we now have that is different is most likely we will have a changing of the guard of WRC. Plus, I see a great 
      possibility if hyperinflation if the M-whatever money supply is released into the general circulating money supply.  
      The coming higher interest rates may hasten this. Harry poo-poos all Inflation talk. Just like some of our resident 
      nay-sayers. These TPTB folks are cycling thru the bubbles one at a time. Next one to burst is looking to be the 
      stock market (IMO) to get everyone into Bonds. The Fed is buying all the Bonds these days, with QE. If they get 
      all the money from Stocks flooding into Bonds, they can successfully shovel off ALL this “toxic debt” to the U$ Public!
      They are herding the sheep to the shearing pens… Move along, little Sheeple… Nothing to see here!

    • @AGXIIK
       
       At my home it’s 35 degrees and snowing outside.”
       
      Well, lucky you!  When I got up this AM, it was 18F here and snowing… colder than a banksters’ heart, it is!  We have about 10″ of snow on the ground now in a place that rarely ever sees half of that.  It did get up to a semi-balmy 27F about 3 PM, though.  Weather droids now say that freezing rain will arrive around midnight tonight and last for about 24 hours.  In short, it is a mess here and it will likely be Tuesday before this crap melts off.  And no, I don’t live at 7,000 feet but at more like 300 feet.  Got plenty of firewood and preps, though, so whiskey tango foxtrot!   :-/
       

    • Ha! Could you believe the greatest superpower (U.S.) has recently been led by men named “Bush”, “Dick”, “and “Colin”?
      How do you take that country seriously?
       

  8. undeRGRound
    The government is building the new sheep pens.

    The words above Auschwitz in Germany said—– Arbeit Mach Frei  (work makes you free)
    The words about the American sheep pen will say—Vernschuldet Mach Sklave (to be in debt makes you a slave)
    We know the name of the camp  
    It’s called  MYRA

    • I once knew a guy who owned a trailer park.  He had a Myna bird he’d won from a saloon owner in Tijuana.  That bird had quite a vocabulary.  My high school female Spanish teacher almost fainted when I repeated some of those words.  I did not know until then that they were cuss words.  Man, was my face red!  Her’s too.  lol
       

  9. willnotbeaslave   the richest 85 to Mars   I would like to see them on Uranus.  Fitting.  Besides which I would not want to do that to one of our SD homies Republic (From) Mars.  
    EdB   I made some serious coin on the ups of the market but got out in easly 2012.  Nothing against the market if you can trade it and use profits for phyzz.  I am just not that good at it.  When the bell rings at the top I think  it’s time to buy more.  Besides which I never really a ‘short the market’ kid of guy.  Funny stat about this market
    We went into the decade 2000 with Dow at 14,000  and 13 years later its only 15,500.  Adjusted for inflation it should be 10,000 or less.
    If the DOW goes to 7,500 when QE is shut off, it’s inflation-adusted price would be 5,000,   With so many of the big corporations buying their stock back in $20 billion tranches, they are artificially juicing earning when in reality their earnings are dropping like a stone when compared to prior years.
    We got 24 inches of snow in the last 24 hours   34 degrees.
      Nice 
    Shorts and T shirt weather  I plan to shovel snow this AM   There’s a snow covered lump near the front door just about the size and shape of zman
     

    • @AGXIIK
       
      ” I made some serious coin on the ups of the market but got out in easly 2012.

      Good job on the serious coin, if not the timing of your exit.  2013 was MUCH better for investors than 2011-12.
       
      “Besides which I never really a ‘short the market’ kid of guy.”
       
      Nope, me neither.  I go long or say so long!  ;-)   I did make a little by shorting the Yen, though.  That was my one and only shorting expedition.
       
      “There’s a snow covered lump near the front door just about the size and shape of zman”
       
      Forget the shoveling, then.  Just blow some fire on it and see if it squeaks.  lol
       
       

  10. AS someone who bought in the mid 40′s, some 3 years ago, all i have done is watched my significant investment reduce by 50%. The thought of ever getting back to 40 plus an ounce just gets me back to breakeven. When you have watched your investment tank for 3 years breakeven looks bloody good, so as my luck will go when i cash out in the mid 40′s(if we ever get there), i’m sure the price will skyrocket the day after i sell my silver. Yep i’ve been beaten up badly by this investment and i’ve heard and read all the endless promises etc etc and i’m tired, i just want my money back. As for David Morgan he was predicting a year ago that Silver would not go below $30/ounce, he is clueless like most of these Gold and Silver sprukers, sorry but there just full of BS, if someone sounds half credible they all jump on board, its quite comical actually. You gotta love their headlines that always follow with a question mark, such as, Silver price about to explode? or Gold ready to soar? etc etc why not just say, we have no fucking idea whats going to happen but its probably a good hedge against inflation in difficult economic times and leave it at that, the rest is just conversation folks imho. Silver about to soar, fucked if i know?

  11. Hey folks, I got a few extra (100′s) Megs to THROW AWAY, before the monthly reset, so I wandered over here for a while.  KWN seems to have dropped their weekly radio show, and Chris over at GoldseekRadio has some encore show.  Thank God for Lou Scatigna at thefinancialphysician dot com. 
     
    Gold and Silver are, and will be manipulated until the Banksters cry uncle.  Millionaires and Billionaires aren’t going to touch the market until they know the manipulation is over.  Until I see the launches stay airborne, and not brought back to the launchpad, STAY AWAY!!!  I am seeing big launches by someone, who’s thinking the manipulation is coming to an end. 
     
    I am seeing a lot of Banksters being pushed off building tops, and committing suicide with a nail gun.  How someone can get 8 nails into themselves is beyond me.  Argentina bank totally burning down and destroying a lot of “evidence”, Feb 15-16 some American Bank outages or interruptions.  And the best news of the week is the return of the INTEREST ONLY mortgages.  Those came out right before the housing market crash, which is a real good way to take a home that is current and legal in possession, and convert it to a future Chinese asset.  Gotta give those Chinese something for those worthless bonds.
     
    So it looks like the Dollar is in for a rough time this week.  I’m increasing the SilverHawk VIX to 28.00.
     
    Soros’ 1.25B S&P PUT(s) hit close to the price he bought them at, about 1753 was when I believe he loaded up.  And I think those options are all in February, although I haven’t checked out the open interest numbers lately.
     
    (What else should I be reporting on here?  Trying to think before I post my photo of the week from SQ’s site, and head on over to The Silver Recliner Report.) . . . . Ah, the calm before the storm . . figuratively and literally.
     
    Well, if I think of anything before the opening launch, I’ll come back.  Meanwhile here is a picture of a skinwalker that an oil field engineer took with an infra red camera.  He quit the next day, by the way.
     

    • Oh yeah, I forgot to say Bitcoin has suspending some withdrawals, and caused the price to plunge back to 750 range.  That’s a train wreck waiting to happen.  Something about Apple taking off the last Wallet Application that was available to the public.  So now there’s no Wallet Apps to download if your an Apple Eater?
       
      Ah!  Clark Howard just came on, so, adios for now.  See ya 2morro.  Maybe.
       
      Morgellans Disease – AMA says it doesn’t exist.
       

    • I haven’t seen neither hide nor hair of @marchas45 today.  Must be outside with the metal detector.
      Well, I’m a happy camper.  I just got a new mountain bike that my neighbor put out next to the dumpster.  Made by “Next”.  And this is after I went out to the bike rack a week ago, to bring in two half bikes that have been laying around for the last year.  I was going to have to spend a few bucks, and a lot of work to finish making one good one.  Just another gift from God and Jesus.  They do this all the time to me.  That’s why I tell people I’m not worried about stocking up on food.  Or any other survival tool, aside from silver.  The power of Jesus and God.  Jesus didn’t say “Call My Name and I will come” for nothing!  Life is beautiful !
       
      More Morgellans
       

  12. I have been reading Turd commentaries for nearly 3 years now and the fact that he and others continue to make price predictions about precious metals, utililizing their irrelevant(because in manipulated markets, charts are meaningless) charts, shows me what kind of dolts we are dealing with here. Few in the pm’s community have learned their lesson if they continue to support guys who believe they know where prices are going short term. This is coming from a guy that is a pm’s(physical) investor. Cheers.PS. Zman does not know what he is talking about in saying that the pm’s market is not being controlled right now.

  13. I just want to commit on some of the ideas stated by many about inflation. Personal / family inflation will not move the needle for PM and we know that from experience of the last few years. Inflation that will move the PM markets has to be experienced by large corporate interest and that would require industrial commodities and labor to have substantial price increases. Currently, big business has the”pick of litter” for labor and temp employment for professionals is widespread and industrial metals have decline or remain stable in recent years. I experienced as a purchasing agent for a jet engine manufacturer the massive price increases in industrial commodities during the late 1970′s and into the early 80′s. It started with food, homes, construction material prices about 1972 and then it ripped into industrials about 1977 and was out of control by 1979. We need to keep that in prospective as PM investors.
     

    • In other words, QE is limiting inflation to the small players. But only for the time being…
      If your 70′s timeframe is going to happen again, then it’s right around the corner!

  14. undeRGRound, big time inflation is not around the conner based on supply/ demand since we have falling incomes which have accelerated downward in the past five years. The US beginning in the 80′s started to mix our economy with third world nations and that put a high percentage of our population in competition with third world nations which is deflationary. The only way we could have high inflation would be due to a big misstep in monetary policy which is possible since the Fed will be pushed to over print due to a recession within a depression currently developing.   
    I remember the nerve of our company calling large groups of people into the cafeteria and some bitch (with a masters and a big deal then) showing a jet engine part and comparing the price that it could be made for in China versus Connecticut. My reply was that anytime you have a work force that has one 60 watt light bulb and a bike to travel to work that cost is possible. Lucky for me that I was building a portfolio of income producing properties after that comment because about three years latter we were asked to bend over and hope for the best.

    • Currency devaluation has created a big part of this “leveling the playing field” as well. 
      The F’ed Reserve misstep is very likely, agreed. They are running out of rope to play 
      with. In the 80′s it was actually the inception of the “Weak Dollar Policy” because the 
      U$DX was around 125.00! Now we struggle to maintain 80. I remember earlier in 
      KLUMMAC’s first term, the U$DX nearly went under 70, and that was when PMs 
      were flying high! 
      A MISSTEP is what it will take, I believe. But if TPTB can maintain this tightrope act, 
      then it could be a long time before we see any big economic waves. I have said for 
      a long time that I think TPTB are trying to get us into a “LOST DECADE” pattern like Japan.

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