Just a week ago silver was clinging to $17. Gold is bogged down in the swamp until solidly taking out $1350, and there is quick sand all around. Complacency here and now can sink us like it has all year long. Especially as the MSM has turned bullish, too bullish…

Silver did not decisively break through $17 until last Thursday, just a few trading days ago. On Sunday night, silver futures broke through $18. We are nowhere near the “all clear”.

We must be more careful than ever to not get too bullish or too complacent.

 

 

 

Looking at the daily on silver, there is some resistance around $18.25, and major resistance around $18.50. Seeing that we have just shot up a greenback in a couple of days, this does not mean we will just storm the lines and over-run the resistance. Good news is that since bottoming out at $15.14 in July, we have had two healthy pullbacks. What is worrisome, however, is that the RSI is beginning to signal “overbought”.

If we are rooting for anything this week, it would be nice to see silver hold at $18, because with a dollar move in two days, there is a bunch of factors, both technical and fundamental in nature, that could cause another dollar move before the week is up. If silver breaks-out to $19, that would be the time to get bullish. If it breaks down to $17, that would be the time to back-up the truck and load up on physical while the getting is good.

Gold, as has been the case all year, is faring much better than silver. Gold is within’ spitting distance of the 52-week highs:

 

 

 

As the days go by, the 52-week highs will be taken out all on their own even if gold consolidates here. We recognize, however, there has been very little consolidation in the metals this year. It has been going up, or going down. With geo-political tensions and mother nature reaching a climax this week, some consolidation would be welcome in somewhat of a figurative and literal calm before the storm.

That would also give silver the chance to catch up to gold from their divergence that just does not want to close:

 

 

 

If gold drops from here, silver has room to run, if gold consolidates from here, silver has room to run, and if gold rises in price from here, silver still has room to run. The strength in the yellow metal has not been shown in the white metal, even though it has been shown in literally every other metal, base, industrial or precious. We keep highlighting the fact that the price of three of the four precious metals averages over $1000, and today, the average price for gold, palladium and platinum is over $1,100. Even when we average in silver to get an average price of all four precious metals, we still have an average price of $832.

When we talk about the absolute cheapest asset on the entire planet, there is a reason for that. How long silver remains to have the price suppressed is the question we are all trying to answer, but trying to time purchases for $.50 savings of downside price action could end up in paying $1 more based on just what we have seen in the last few days.

Palladium and copper continue to show the strength in price action that they have showed all year:

 

 

 

Palladium is precious and industrial. Copper is a base metal that the entire internet runs off of. It is not so much an infrastructure “spend”, but an infrastructure “rebuild”, and raw materials are going to be in high demand, which include the metals among other things.

Crude oil is turning out to be very interesting on the chart:

 

 

 

We have a classic “inverse head and shoulders” pattern forming on the chart. The question is, how much of it is fundamental and how much of it is technical. In other words, if the WTI price shoots up to $53.50, would that be coincidence? Notice the top of the head, in our case the bottom price on the chart, is exactly the low for crude oil.

Fear in and of itself is starting to look a mess:

 

 

Since the beginning of the North Korean thermo-nuclear war threat, there have been three surges in the VIX. They have all occurred with little separation on the charts. Now we know the Fed is suppressing the VIX and propping the broader markets, but on the chart, even with the market manipulation, it looks as if VIX is in for a repricing, which would be higher, not lower. Upside volatility repricing is bullish for gold and silver prices, the ultimate hedges against uncertainty.

And wouldn’t ya know, coming off of those VIX surges, there have been three surges in the Dow as the VIX retraces:

 

 

 

The problem with the stock market, however, is that it now looks very, very exhausted. All three runs have failed, and the trend certainly points down in what is looking more and more like a rounding top on the chart. 200 points in the Dow are peanuts at 22,000, but when it is not 200 points, but 2,000 points? That still would not even be a 10% drop. How low will it have to go before the Fed steps in? If the Dow drops 2,000 points, it is quite possible the Fed will maintain absolute media silence on the matter, because that would be a paradigm shift from the “everything is awesome” economy they have been selling since 2009. They are running out of buyers very fast.

And if everything is so awesome, we know President Trump can’t resist the chance to cheer-lead the stock market of now his making, what explains this:

 

 

 

The yield on the 10-year is now back to “The Day After” level. The entire move in yield has now completely retraced. Perhaps this is why there is all the sudden a renewed push to kick the can on the debt ceiling by tacking it on to hurricane relief? Not helping the bond market is the fact that on September 20th, Janet Yellen will have to face softball questions from the propagandist MSM regarding the FOMC action to raise or not to raise interest rates, and to reduce or not to reduce the balance sheet.

Either way, this does not look good:

 

 

That leaves us with the dollar. Since every MSM “analyst” is certain the reversal is coming any day now, we’re not so sure:

 

 

Want to keep an eye on daily gold and silver prices? Click here for gold or here for silver.

    • the last 6 years have been 1 big dip. If you’re a noob you should be buying with both hands at any price under 18 and if you’re not a noob then you should have a big enough stack that a few more doesn’t matter.

      Timing dips is more for traders, or guys who enjoy lying online about buying at the bottom and selling at the top to make themselves feel cool.

      It’s high time for the price to take off towards 26, the price incidentally EVERY silver pundit said it would NEVER get below again.

    • We shouldnt be too optimistic or complacent because of a chart?

      What do Technical Analysis, or our feelings, have to do with the gold price?

      If its fundamentally undervalued, buy.

      If its overvalued, sell. End of story.

    • I suppose there is a need to get this info out there to people that like to be led around by the nose and make them into super duper PM traders.

       

      Charting in a manipulated market makes nothing more than pretty pieces of paper.  Who really needs to attempt to beat a market that is trending, over many years, up.

       

      PM’s are either a great buy or a great sell over the long term.  Pick a side and be done with it.

      I would suggest the worst possible scenario, for a believer in the PM sector, would be to pick a top, get out, and sit back and watch as it turns around before getting back in.  IF, the value makes a large move are you going to reverse or wait for it to settle back.  It may not settle back to a price you like.  Then what.

  1. I’m not sure what we can do, in terms of not being “complacent” as stackers. Sending E-prayers and nominally adding to our stacks is pretty much all we can do. I mean I have a pile of grimoires but use them for research purpose only, so don’t be axing me to start casting spells again.

    As opposed to the cartel printing up a quizzillion ounces of gold and silver and dumping them.

  2. What is worrisome, however, is that the RSI is beginning to signal “overbought”.

    If you think this is a bull market then why are you even looking at the ‘overbought’ section of your indicators?  The purpose of momentum indicators is to identify over’sold’ conditions in a bull market or over’bought’ conditions in a bear market… entry points.  What we ‘want’ to see is overbought conditions in a bull market.

    The greatest benefit we get by observing the over’bought’ section of momentum indicators in a bull market is that they sometimes diverge with price, producing some of the greatest short term ‘take profit’ signals we’ll ever hope to see.  But over’bought’ during a bull cycle?  Not the slightest bit worrisome.

    • Sweet.  Lethbridge is where I grew up.  I live in ‘smalltown Alberta’ 80 km from there now, just loving the tranquility and mountains being closer than in YYC.  When I wanted to get out of Calgary, I drove for 35 minutes and was still in Calgary.  Where I live now, I’m literally out of town in 60 seconds… 55 if I don’t drop my keys.  Love it!!!

      Population was 32,000 when I lived in Lethbridge but it’s almost 100k now.  Different city now.  I hate to say it, but I don’t like Leth as much as I used to.  I still have a lot of old friends there.

  3. Paying homage to John Goodman’s  FU rant in the movie  The Gambler here is my take on precious metals

    AGXIIK

    Do you have a problem ‘Whah Whah What’ like some little girl  ‘Whah Whah Whah’ or  some stacker who can’t figure out whether the market is over bought or over sold?

    Are you  Ef’d up temporarily because you’re temporarily effing  stupid?

    Are you short business or long business?  You gotta know if it time to buy or time to walk.

    There’s lots of people who don’t, ya know

    Stackers who buy or sell too soon.

    Assholes who bitch about being underwater. There’re plenty of those out there.

    I’ve seen stackers up a ton of silver and Effed it up totally**

    Any idiot knows if you have 30,000 ounces of silver* you buy a house with a 25 year roof, an indestructible Japanese economy shit box  and put the rest in the vault and wait out the storm

    That’s your base.  Get me?    That’s your fortress of solitude.

    That puts you for the rest of your life at a position of FU.

    Someone wants you to do something      FU

    Boss pisses you off      FU

    IRS hounding you      FU  Blow me

    Own your house; have a couple of bucks in the bank; Don’t drink.

    That all I have to say to anybody at any social level

     

    *Silver at $50 an ounce makes this a little easier
    ** Jason Hommel, Tulving, Northwest Territory Mint, Bullion Direct, The Effing Hunt Brothers who took a beautiful position of FU and Effed it up totally

     

     

    • lol @AGXIIK

       

      “Own your house; have a couple of bucks in the bank; Don’t drink.”

      It’s hard for me to trust a man who looks at the world today and doesn’t take a drink now and then.

      Makes me think that he doesn’t know WTF is going on.  😉

       

  4. The metals have been oversold for the better part of seven years and we’re talking about an overbought condition? I guess the TA guys have to have something to write about.

    Most stackers don’t care about TA they just buy when they can. Traders that do care about technicals often get fleeced regardless due to the waterfall smackdowns during the wee hours of the morning. Good luck trading this “market.”

  5. I’ve begun the process of liquidating my gold.  Have just sold a significant amount.

    Mind you, I’m not getting rid of all of it.  I’ll probably sell from here on out, year on year, as far as the eye can see.

    I’m through accumulating gold.  I’ve had enough of this bullshit.  I’ve capitulated and if you want to take that as a sign of the bottom, so be it.  If you younger guys want to get in, more power to you, in fact you may benefit.  But believe what you want to believe, do what you want to do, and remember that inflation and the tax man will always get you in the end.  And the rich will always win.

  6. Hmm, Silver oversold for 6 years, now Silver overbought for 2 weeks, just give me 5years and 50 more weeks of over bought and then we can talk overbought. Now these Silver haters will be telling people that Silver needs to go down 2 or 3 bucks and then it will be time to back up the truck. Hogwash, the last 6 years was the time to back up the truck.

  7. There is a reason why copper served as monetary metal

    Palladium can be as scarce and precious as it wants to be hip. Where’s the rhodium qote? I tell you what. These ultra scarce metals, they used to run them prices up to soak up dollars. What you need is real money, lots of it. Nevermind international competition. You’ll work your way back up. Choose copper!

     

     

    • … your accounting has gone bonkers…. but ok. more bitcoin for you, surely this time you’ve got it all figured out. The monetary trajectory’s aim to pure fantasy is what you deserve is what you get. The one and only precise measure for precious value. Goodluck with your 4oz of gold, far and wide between, domestically. Just don’t use it, ask Marc Dice, and you’ll be rich for your fellow country men. haha bankers and lawyers will provide for you. Gold is top of monetary hierarchy, traditionally not more than 5 or 10% of population own gold… power comes with knowledge, but you want them all to suck your butt with no knowledge but how to deceive. You are abomination, a darling4dollars.

      Donald take it personal, you just happen to be there. I hope you go full retard on bitcoin, TCUYA is just round the corner. Cheers 🙂 You might control gold, some have tried to control silver, you wont control copper, but bitcoin, better than any monopoly by law. An exceptional currency for an exceptional people, indeed. If government issues a new currency for their money(pile of debt) people tend to marry the state’s currency. And so yes, from the fantasy dollar where you are now, you can’t even argue against an even fantasier design of same dollar/accounting unit which makes your world go round. Beijng part of the mental disease I can’t know how those others want to protect themselves.

      For you, for those clowns who after forty years of counterfeit money think a constitutional silver dollar is your paper sealed right, I think it looks like a lot of work, more so than a gift from someone above, gold will provide for you…

      funny.

    • Holy crap @tailwag

       

      That MAY be the least rational comment I’ve ever read.  It’s filled with assumptions that are so far off base it makes me wonder if your knowledge of the English language isn’t something digital.  Oh, well.  Whatever.

       

  8. In defense of John Goodman’s character @Ed_B   he does drink a bit but the only time his character was face plant drunk was 30 years prior  He got thrown in jail

    As for   “Don’t drink”   I do not concur with that, but face plant’s not a good idea  It causes people to do stupid stuff on the internet, like trade ICOs thinking they can buy a yacht with the profits

    • @AGXIIK

       

      There is nothing in this world that can’t and won’t be abused by some.  They quite often deserve what happens to them because of their abusing things.  There is a HUGE difference between drinking “a bit” and getting falling down s**t-faced.  I tried the latter once… about 48 years ago… and haven’t been there since.  Still, a relaxing drink now and then is just fine.  We both know this to be true.  Like many things in life, it is the dose that makes the poison.  😉

       

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