We don’t need another gold & silver break-out fake-out, so watch these indicators going into the week…
Before getting into anything else, let’s start by saying we need improving morale. The last two weeks we have been otherwise hopeful on the price action of gold and silver, so we don’t need our morale or hope crushed right now. Let’s hope to consolidate from here, and if we end the week above $1300 gold and $17.50 silver, that would give us the “we got this” morale boost that is so badly needed.

The difficulty will be in actually consolidating, especially in silver. There has been little to no consolidation all year. The precious metals are either moving up, or they are dropping. Mostly dropping. Before we get into the charts, there is, however, some rough fundamental waters are ahead of us down river, and we know darn well that when we get to them, the market manipulators makers will want to start rocking the boat so that gold & silver tumble overboard.

This week is the Fed Jackson Hole meeting. Specifically it is the 24th, 25th, and 26th. Which means the Fed will have follow-through and a chance to do a little weekend jawboning if their the manipulation markets don not finish the week as they have planned or anticipated.  Of interesting to note, ECB President Mario Draghi will attend this year’s event which is called “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”. There are so many things wrong with that name, but suffice to say the Fed is proud to use a US National Park to discus manipulating the liquidity and exchange rates wherever and whenever they are needed at any point around the globe to pump their banking syndicate. Makes you wonder who’s side they are on, but we already knew that. But perhaps, this year, we see that they are not just on the side of the banks, but the side of the banks and not at all fighting for “monetary policy” in the United States. Perhaps Jackson Hole will market will hammer the final nail (after Bannon) in the “America First” stance? Sometimes it seems as if there was never going to be an America First, that it was all for show, but I digress, we’re here to talk about the markets.

Rounding out the technical schedule for the week, it is not very jam packed as far as market moving events.

  • Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
  • Tuesday: House Price Index & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Report
  • Thursday: Action Jackson, Jobless Claims, PMI Composite, Existing Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, Etc
  • Friday: Action Jackson, Durable Goods, Yellen Morning Speech, Baker-Hughes Rig Count
  • Saturday: Conclusion of Action Jackson (be on the look out for surprise weekend policy announcement)

So fundamentals will be alive and well in the markets this week. As we can see, the “official” fundamental market moving events are many, and this does not even take into consideration the threat of thermo-nuclear war, terrorism and chaos in Europe, racism and violence in the United States, or an increasingly isolated President Trump, whom might be the target of further impeachment talks now that Bannon is out and there really is nobody left who is an “outsider” who could bring fresh, America First views and pressure.

Moving on to the technical, let’s begin with silver. Silver needs to be shown in light of it’s under-performance. On friday, the price of gold put in an intra-day high. But last week, base metal copper and precious metal palladium both had closes at highs for the year. This begs the question, what the heck is going on with silver? Here’s the gap:

 

 

Late last year, the three metals were coupled, and this makes sense, because there was election uncertainty, and silver can swing either way in times of increased demand either for monetary use or industrial use. Once the election was over, copper began it’s move in earnest. Palladium began its move too, also based on the fact that palladium is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver, well, without pulling any punches, in my humble opinion, comes down to the fact that out of all the things in the world the US government fears most, it is silver they fear the most.

Sure, there is supporting the dollar, and there is fighting terrorism, domestic extremism spilling over into American streets and worsening international relations, US political turmoil, and the threat of thermo-nuclear war, yet, in light of all the things the that are feared, a rise in the silver price is feared the most. They won’t ever say this, they won’t ever say anything good about silver, but the price action just doesn’t jibe with all the factors, both fundamental and technical. Though maybe that is just the silverbug in me frustrated to be sitting at $17 at the end of summer.

Let’s hope for a silver close above $17.50 this week, even though silver was $20.23  just a year ago. Just realize that silver can put in big moves and fast, so if we have a break-out to the upside, we could add on dollars in just a matter of days.

Gold is looking very bullish. Last Friday, gold put in an intra-day high for the year over $1300. The following chart shows gold compared to the US 10-Year yield:

 

 

One thing to keep in mind is that gold has room to run just based on the fact that the 10-year has not seen a low in yield yet. If the yield continues to drop in the short term, as gold is sensitive to interest rate drops in the short term, look for gold to rise. We’re not asking for much, we are just hoping to have a close above $1300 on the week. OK, I want much stronger performance than that, and who knows, this may be the week we finally get the decisive thrust we need, and we shall see.

Moving on to the dollar, we see the dollar looks poised to either move up to 95 in the coming days, or move down to 92. It is right smack dab in the middle of the channel it has formed on the chart:

 

 

I am bearish on the dollar. The run since June 2014 just can’t go on much longer, and it sure looks like it ended in late January of this year. We shall see, but I’m seeing any strength right now as a dead cat bounce, and I look to further dollar weakness once this latest move is over.

Crude has been range bound, and I have thrown up a chart of the last 5 days. It’s pretty ugly:

 

 

The stock market is looking like it is starting to break down:

 

 

Price action in the Dow and S&P 500 have been signaling moves lower over the last several days. The technicals are further signaling weakness in the stock market because they are not yet signaling “oversold”, and the VIX has been waking up, signaling that “fear” is back into the market.

 

    • You can fool some of the COMEX silver people some of the time, but you cant fool all of the widely traded, inflation-indicated industrial copper and zinc people all of the time.

      Coppers pinging $3 is more important for inflation indicating than gold at $1300. Copper Lead Zinc are all on a tear. Silver soon to follow.

      Especially Palladium, which like silver is a precious industrial metal. Palladium’s at all time highs.

      Get ready to get rich, http://www.yachtworld.com Sailboats like silver are dual purposed. Great Prepping vehicles (collecting rain water, catching your protein, and a nice band of wet blue between you and the rioting hordes)

       

       

  1. Only one small impediment vis a vis a price rise:OPTIONS EXPIRY.

    The old wash n rinse trick as Maxwell Smart would say.

    Just maybe(lol) the cartel will  give us a break this time out of pity.

    Didnt Andy  lying leprechaun say the old wash and rinse was just about history.

    I think not.

     

    • “Just maybe(lol) the cartel will  give us a break this time out of pity.”

       

      Yeah.  Right.  lol  They have no understanding of either pity or mercy.

      Actually, this comment smacks a bit of “This time it’s different!”.  :-/

      But I do note the (lol) in there so know that this is not a serious comment.

    • Yup, the BIS/CB/ESF/BB Complex remain firmly in control of these “markets”, as most recently (in your face) evidenced by last Friday’s “trading”. So long as the the pricing of spot PM’s and the architecture of the futures “markets” remains the same (And I don’t see what would make it change), “wash and rinse” is the very profitable name of the game for the BB’s. So why would they change? Forget “the Regulator”.

      What we here describe as “manipulation” is also called “monetary policy” by the Fed and is (quite legally) enforced by the BB’s on behalf of the ESF. The old phrase “don’t fight the Fed” should always be kept in mind. Doesn’t it seem strange that of all the “industrial metals”, Silver is the only laggard, despite the supply defecit?

    • It’s called “Talking your own book”, although saying that has got my posts here deleted several times previously. Andrew is the classic example, starting with his statement that the ABX would (almost immediately) replace the Comex and LBMA exchanges. Um, they still seem to be operating OK?

    • “They fear silver the most?” What delusional nonsense. Those that promote metals come up with all sorts of absurdities to market their pump and dump scheme. No one gives a damn what silver prices are except those that use it in industry, manufacturing and retail jewelry. This is 70 to 89% of demand. With hundreds of trillions of liquidity sloshing around the planet the idea that some of this will suddenly flow into silver and collapse the dollar is just total nonsense. This is a clear indication that this guy has no experience trading financial markets. Both the physical gold and silver market are simply too small for large capital flows and this capital does not want the associated delivery and storage cost and of course provides no liquidity. This capital needs markets where there are huge pools of liquidity and that has been the dollar and Dow and this will continue thru the rest of the year and into 2018 where Armstrong Economics computer models are forecasting that this is when the shit hits the fan especially in Europe with both the Monetary Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis hits. Huge international capital flows have been steadily moving into dollar based assets as the capital flight increases out of Europe. This has caused enormous problems for the FED and they have been attempting to weaken the dollar and talk markets down trying to discourage the movement of capital into dollar based assets and stop the capital flight. It has not worked and as we head into the rest of the year this will cause dollar strength and across the board commodity weakness. Now those that market metals have been claiming that when prices go down it is the “cartel” or the banks or the the FED suppressing prices to instill dollar confidence which is again absurd. If you have been paying attention to the FED have they actually been doing the opposite. It makes you wonder if these metal promoters are clueless or are they just keeping up their mantra and intentionally ignoring what has been happening in markets?

      Currently the gold is at 1285 which is between the 1272 reversal level and the 1300 resistance level. The “dumb” money is flowing again in the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD as they believe everything is fixed in Europe. The currency traders and the hedge funds are setting up this “dumb” money for another kill like they did last week when  they allowed the crosses to move to around the 11880 handle and almost to 131 with the pound. They then stomped on the crosses moving price down to around 117 and 128.

      Silver has been one of the largest scams on the net. All of the above is the reason why the price will not rise significantly and only gradually with time and inflation.

  2. Hey, pssst…want to know what the price of gold/silver will be next week, next month, next year. You don’t need graphs, you don’t need the COT report, you don’t need supply and demand, all you need to do is call the Manipulation Desk at the CRIMEX  (1-800- DUM-BASS)  and tell them that Joe sent you and they will give you the price spread sheet for the next year. REALLY…Does anyone actually read any of these crap articles any more???

    • If we REALLY wanna know what an oz. of gold is worth, we need to ask the Chinese what it would cost for them to sell us about 10 tons of their gold.  Once we have a price, we can calculate the per oz. value.  My guess on this is somewhere in the $5,000-$7,500 per oz. range.

       

    • Agreed @UglyDog

       

      This is somewhat like the price of oil these days.  The financial program talking heads used to tell us that the price of oil was like a tax on the economy, so when oil prices rose, business had less money available for other things, such as new plant and equipment or employees.  For the past year or so they have been singing a different tune that does not include this mantra.  That aside, it makes perfect sense to me that whenever a business spends more on any particular expense item they have less money for other things.  But I wonder why they changed their tune on this.

      Of course, they also used to quote the Baltic Dry Index as the be-all and end-all of measuring the health of world commerce.  Once that fell from about 11,400 all the way down to just below 300, they have been VERY quiet about this measurement and seldom, if ever, quote it anymore.

      Wow.  I just checked this on-line and it is now at 1260… more than 10% of its previous high.  That’s a little better than it was a few years ago but still nothing to whistle and stomp about.

       

  3. I on the Tragic Commodity persuasion camp.

    WE won’t get a break from the Bat Shit Crazy Banksters!

    It’s there job to keep the Fiat Debt Notes worth more than the PM.

    The Lies will Continue until The Dollar Crashes…

    • God bless you @CentralTexan

       

      You are one of the few on here who actually understands that PMs are not a get rich quick short-cut but a LONG term buy and hold.  348 months is, indeed, one heckuva long time to be stacking.  Most on here have been at it for a much shorter time period.  I started stacking very slowly in 2010 by buying a roll of dimes here and a roll of quarters there.  Over time, I built a strategy for regular buying, raising the amount of my purchases, and buying more on the dips and less on the rises.  I have a decent stack now and continue to add some to it each quarter.  Much of my stack was acquired below a price of $20 an oz., so while I am underwater on my entire stack, the “loss” is minimal.  I consider it my financial “Oh, crap!” insurance plan that gives me something of real intrinsic value if other thing go Tango Uniform.  If things do not go TU, then I still have something that hedges some of my wealth against inflation, which is another good thing to have in an uncertain world that seems to lurch from one disaster to another.

      Much as I like PMs, however, they are not my only investment.  The past 6 years or so have been an ugly time for most stackers, so it was good to have mutual funds and ETFs that were doing quite well and easily covered those losses.  At some point in time, I fully expect my PMs to rise in price and cover losses in the paper investments.  Don’t know when and don’t particularly care.  Que Sera, Sera and all that.  🙂

       

       

    • They run those ads because more conservative people tend to buy PMs and Fox News appeals to such folks.  Ad dollars go where the clients / customers are.

  4. I haven’t read the content but the title makes me laugh:

    S&P will either go up or go down

    USDJPY either rallies or declines

    Silver should be either be supported or found sellers

    I am genius indeed since I know the outcome

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