1559111On a Week Which Saw Gold Explode For its Largest Gain in 16 Years & the Global Financial Markets on the Brink of Complete Contagion, Dave Kranzler Joined the Show to Break Down All of the Action: 

A MUST LISTEN SD Weekly Metals and Markets is Below:


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Janet Yellen has spoken – well, sort of.  All she did was launch a trial balloon about negative interest rates coming to America, but that was all that was needed to send an earthquake throughout financial markets.  While there are no doubt many people still buying the notion that we are in an interest rate normalization cycle, now, a growing percentage of those people are second-guessing their assumptions. 

We’ve witnessing new precious metals buyers – both paper, and physical.  A very strong argument can be made that we are now in the third phase of this mega precious metals bull market.  Traditionally, bull markets tend to have three phases:  1) smart money entry;  2) institutional accumulation;  3) blow-off top, when the retail investors enter like mad, and the institutional investors are just as happy to drive things higher as well for the bulk of the move.  To see buyers cuing for physical in London so early in “phase three” is significant.  Dave Kranzler, Doc and I speculate a bit as to the possible significance of this surprising activity.


We recorded this show at around noon, Eastern.  The closing action in the precious metals space is very constructive.  Instead of suffering cartel attacks that generate meaningful corrections, so far all we have seen is pretty much “horizontal” action during the more quite days of this trading week.  We haven’t seen that sort of trading in —  quite literally — years. 

This is one of the signs of stepped-up accumulation, and while it’s not easy to determine just how much of this buying interest represents new money, new money is most certainly coming into the precious metals market. 


We also saw very constructive mining share buying interest on Friday, moving right on up to close and into the afterhours.  For example, check out how nice and generally smooth that upward sloping of the intraday trading on GDXJ from about 12:30 Eastern, onward.  That’s impressive, nice, steady accumulation, with buyside volume popping along the way and accelerating into the close, and a close very near the high for the day.  The icing on the cake:  check out the large buying in the aftermarket.  Clearly, GDXJ is under serious, professional accumulation.  Retail investors don’t fling millions of shares around just before 5pm, EST.  Soros, are you starting to accumulate?  We know Soros loves using GDXJ, and rumors about his buying is making the rounds this week.

Earlier in the week there was a pretty decent amount of turnover in GDXJ, so we were no doubt getting rid of a small number of weaker hands.  Thursday and Friday’s GDXJ has the character of mostly pros working orders and accumulating.  Not only did miners and metals trade well, but they were able to move higher even while the traditional equity markets bounced to the upside.  The cartel prefers to strike when momentum slows a bit – bigger bang for their buck, as it were.  That we didn’t see this sort of action other than minor price management in the middle of the week (which I talked about back on Monday as something to look for – click here) is quite telling.  It confirms that we are seeing the beginnings of what Bill Murphy describes as a “managed retreat.” 

Odds are, we’ve got some room to run and test that $18.50 area on silver.   If the cartel is indeed in a managed retreat, they’re probably not going to be freaking out quite as aggressively until we start getting close to testing $18.50, because breaching $18.50 will send major momentum/confirmation signals to the sizable, conventional finance world that responds to technical analysis and momentum like Pavlov’s dogs.  Sometimes, paper traders are your allies.  Nevertheless, we will have to endure some nasty down drafts and corrections along the way, but many will be surprised by just how quickly we might see silver with a “$17 handle” and targeting $18.50.  That could happen as soon as next week.

As Dave points out during the show, silver has been able to buck downside pressure even when gold was modestly dipping on Friday, and we’ve seen silver trade like this a few times in February.  That’s impressive.  As fears of a deflationary spiral haunt more and more investors, silver frequently takes a back seat to gold, given concerns about falling industrial demand.  Tune into the show for Dave’s take on what this trading action might suggest.  Clearly, silver is giving the cartel heartburn.

Dave launched his Short Seller’s Journal at the perfect time.  If you’d like to check it out, click here to visit his website.

Weekend Links

Enjoy the weekend – Eric Dubin, Managing Editor, The News Doctors


CORRECTION: It has come to my attention that the story about bullion buyers cuing around the block in London has been blown out of proportion. ZeroHedge ran a story with a strong headline that was taken out of context. It was only deep in the story that we learn the context for the headline reference to “lines around the block.” ZH referenced an article in The Telegraph, where we see the following quote: “It’s been crazy – it’s been the best week since 2012. We’ve had people queuing round the block,” said Michael Cooper of ATS Bullion, a family run firm that trades online and also from an outlet in the West End.” It also reports: “London-based ATS Bullion added it had been inundated with orders for the past week. The firm has sold 4,000 gold bars and coins since February 1, a 40pc rise on the same period a year ago when it sold 1,500.” Well, that level of order flow at a “family run firm” that has “an outlet in the West End” isn’t the sort of establishment and experiences one can extrapolate against for the whole country, never mind just London. There was a big spike in buying – really big. But it looks like ZeroHedge may have inadvertently created a distortion in the way people interpreted their reporting, including me. It was a busy week and I made the mistake of thinking they were reporting on much larger bullion dealer in reference to that headline because the story quotes large bullion dealers too. Please accept my apology. My musing about lines forming at this early stage of the 3rd phase of the bull market needs a rethink! — Eric Dubin

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  1. ABX Physical Bullion Exchange opened last Wednesday. No paper trading. The site is up and going but still a little buggy i.e. I think they’re misquoting single ounces for half ounces etc … Chinese traders back to work Monday. Next week should be very interesting.

  2. When China flushes US Treasury notes from it’s nest egg and has used it all up grabbing cheap gold with both hands…then the bulls will run. Not until then…or if Obama decides to match wits with Putin. I’ m no chess player…but I would imagine you can not win playing defense while your opponent advances and attacks your positions, wiping out your players…Be ready America: the Traitor Rats have their tunnels ready to scurry into…and we ain’t invited. Putin isn’t going to play “defense” with purple-lipped gay liars…or Kerrys really named Cohen. China also watches…and waits…while Neocons fiddle…and America burns itself down from parasitical infection. Nero…with an EXTREMELY long neck…

  3. I remember when Andrew blue the whistle on silver manipulation by the cartel.  They turned the big guns on him, ridiculing him.  Great work Andrew on this new exchange, let’s spread the message of this new exchange far and wide.

    • This “new” exchange has been in the works for a LOOOOOONG time… problems never discussed in detail… why?  I think this might be a typical “for profit” scam and the major beneficiary will be… McGuire.

  4. I think we are definitely at the beginning of a run up for gold.  You can see the DOW jones is edging down with new lows and the peaks are not going up they are going down.  So definitely much stress in the markets. Gold not only broke through a resistance level it screamed past two more in one day, though it did pull back it held level all day.

    Kind of ironic that Deutche bank with over 10 billion in physical gold just added 1.5 billion to their bottom line pretty much erasing their rightoff.  They literally could lock in profits short the market along with the French central bank, JPM and the rest of the criminals and buy it back much lower.  It makes me sick to see how they manipulate the market.  Lawsuit my butt!!!!!  They own the government and the courts.


    • They’re busy packing their bags and vacating the manipulation headquarters. 28 of them just got closed down this week; stationed within Walmart warehouses. ????

  5. Re: the statement in this article that reads “The firm has sold 4,000 gold bars and coins since February 1, a 40pc rise on the same period a year ago when it sold 1,500.”

    Am I missing something here?

    Assuming that “pc” means “percent”, isn’t going from 1,500 to 4,000 more like a 266%  increase, not 40?

    • @Nepenthean : I fully expect the premiums on gold to go parabolic if the bottom starts to drop out of gold price.  Remember this is a market where price has been heavily influenced by massive amounts of paper contracts backed by nothin’ so the normal laws of price discovery have entered uncharted territory.  Companies that break historical molds can easily create a Titanic and not realize it until after the iceberg moment.  I would look at all these unbacked paper contracts as those cheap rivets that shattered upon impact and allowed a breach in the hull.

      The other thing we know is a lot of people own paper gold but won’t have any real claim to the physical.  They just own partially backed paper holdings or derivatives.  I would consider this a situation of Titanic’s Lifeboats.  They looked like a safe haven for everyone on board until she started sinking.  Only a few got saved by those lifeboats and expect the same with paper gold should that boat go down due to these new physical only exchanges that are emerging.

      BTW: Bo Ploney is on Greg Hunter’s Watchdog early release this Sunday.  Probably means gold gets hammered on Monday? <sarc>

  6. Yea, Bo Baloney has not made a good call on PM’s in how long? Agreed he is a joke.


    I think the bullion banks perhaps with china collaboration have a good chance to push Au to 1000USD with ~12 months. Yes, I think you are right to say prems will increase.

    • I think the LBMA fraud was a testament to stackers big and small. The LBMA needed a short lived smash so they could get phys because the typical longer lived smashes result in too much phys getting bought and they can’t afford that.

  7. All this ranting about tight physical supplies in both Au and AG… yet no one is withdrawing major physical from the large Sprott funds, PHYS and PSLV… why is that?


    I have asked Bill Holter and other talking heads… no answer.

    • There’s been a few times when investors have requested delivery of bullion out of the funds.   I don’t know how often that happens.   But I’ve read an occasional news story on the subject, and even Eric Sprott has discussed the subject before.   One of the reasons why it doesn’t happen all that often is that historically, the funds usually carry a premium over spot prices because investors attribute the holding as being safer than, say, GLD.

  8. A few thoughts on the podcast and last week’s action

    Druckenmiller, one of the most successful hedge fund operators, bought $300,000,000 in 2.9 million shares of GLD in mid 2015.  What does he know?  Can he force gold into his vault with these shares.  If there is gold he most certainly can.  The gold price was higher than now but hedge fund operators don’t try to call the tops and bottoms. They work to get in at a good price and let the market reward them.   The first out get the best deal. The first in get the best deal.

    Are you walking in or out?

    When the SHTF, it Depends on whether you stocked toilet paper or FIAT paper.  Are you a hard ass about hard assets?  Diversification is going to be a key, as this hard head is finding out in today’s market.

    Druckenmiller heard the siren call.   Billionaires are equally prey to the emotionalism of buying and selling. The difference is that some billionaires put their emotions on hold, use logic and reason when getting into any markets.

    ‘Attention KMart shoppers, for the next 10 minutes we’re offering gold at a 5% discount in our bullion department’

    The  Druck Truck backed up and filled up.

    @Flying Wombat.  When we see lines around the block it’ll be us lining up to get our cash out of crashing;  closing banks.  I’ve been in the 1980 bullion lines when silver was spiking to $40 and up.

    When WalMart has their black ‘gold’ Friday sale, we better be in line at 2 AM. It’ll be on Monday, or maybe Tuesday, right after a 3 day weekend. And when WalMart starts selling gold and silver like a corner LCS pawn shop, the end is nigh. Walmart is already acting like a bank and payday loan store so selling precious metals seems like a reasonable marketing ploy   Maybe these products will be Hecho En Estado Unidos.

    Hey, I’m a buyer.

    Gringo Gold.  Organic Buffaloes. Plata Mi Cheby

    WalMart layaway plan?

    I’ll gladly pay you tomorrow for more Oro dia de Hoy—OH!

    Don’t get  skimpy, be a Wimpy!

    We’ll be in the WalMart line buying silver and gold when the other 95% are hoping they can get their money out of a failed bank.

  9. Is it just me?

    When I hear the phrase.  ‘The Third Leg is About to Explode’  it gives me the willies.

    That should be a banned phrase.

    Just like anything with  ‘Harvey Organ, huge and massive in the same line’.

  10. I have the answer!!!!  Listen,  on Monday when the China Markets open, gold will either surge ahead as they are late into the market, or retract below the current closing Friday from being over bought!!!  My advice is guaranteed. ;)..  Just picked up $50fv on halves at a whopping $14.50….   augggghhhhhh the 90% is getting harder to get.  Also look at the spreads on 1oz gold.  in the immortal words of some comedian.  “HERE’S YOUR SIGN!”

  11. Felt the strongest earthquake yet!!!!  Fairview ok had a 5.1 Shifted me around for a good 5 seconds!!!  This is not normal at all for kansas!!!  Mabey a higher power is warning me for what is about to come!!!!s

  12. The Chinese  will be in a buying mode come Sunday night 9 cst. US Banks closed for Abraham Lincoln Birthday on Monday. Chinese have been buying 1 oz pandas recently. Indians have been buying silver up the kazoo.

    Some of the US business finamcial networks are mentioning Gold and Silver over the weekend with some recommending buying gold.

    Keep stacking till it hurts and then stack some more.

  13. The Days of Smoke and Mirrors are coming to and end and the day is fast coming when either the system is allowed to collapse and renew or we are in massive diversion territory however never forget the Trillions of $ spent by China,Russia and India on physical this alone will ensure the new system will never be a totally digital system unless you live in the bankrupt West and how long do you think the West could stand alone ?


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