Craig Hemke tells Silver Doctors that the gold price will break-out in Q4, but, PHYSICAL SILVER IS URGENT NOW!

Gold and silver have recovered after this morning’s manipulation. But Gold and silver were capped throughout this week. Silver was capped at it’s 200 day moving average, while gold breaks below the key 1300 level.

What’s next? Craig Hemke (Turd Ferguson) of TF Metals Report joins us for this week’s exclusive SD Metals & Markets.

Fort Knox vault was open for the first time in over 40 years. Steve Mnuchin and other politicians visited Fort Knox. They say the gold is safe, but there are reasons to think otherwise:

    • Gotta give props to TPTB keeping PM’s mostly in check as the USD continues to drop…
      At this rate they will have done an masterful job holding Gold and Silver in place.
      And all the while next to nobody will notice that what that really means is that the banks will have stealth-fully SMASHED the price— and the spot price chart won’t even reflect what is in reality a MASSIVE price SMASH….

      Makes me want to add with at every opportunity!

    • “Gotta give props to TPTB keeping PM’s mostly in check as the USD continues to drop…”

      Think Saudi oil.  When cash is trash they sell bonds and jack prices beyond dreams.  Production is up in the US while demand is down due to the bad US economy.  The balance will change when the Saudis wake up then look the hell out.  Saudis will be then be ripe for “regime change” and the world will change.  That’s why the NK puppet state is acting out on orders from China.  Bleeding the US forcing it deeper into debt is their strategy.  Russia is just sitting back with a huge grin on it’s face while Putin rocks to MC Hammer wondering if Trump takes the cheese.

       

    • @4 oz

       

      “Makes me want to add with at every opportunity!”

      Of course it does!  This is how a sane man reacts when confronted by an insane situation.  I understand this completely because I feel the same way.  I haven’t bought any silver for a couple of months now but will when the time and conditions are right.  I have been buying a little gold from time to time.  Last buy was about 2 months ago.  Got 5 1-oz. AGEs of mixed dates but BU quality at a good price.  Got free shipping too.  I like silver but probably have almost all I need.  But I do need more gold, so will be looking to buy more of that.  Still, silver at a good price would be very tempting.  🙂

      Sales on brass, lead, and reloading components are also watched for as these are on my to-buy list.

       

    • Ed_B

      Finally put Andrew McGuire into the Bull$hitter category…. it’s past time to “walk away” from anything Andrew McGuire.
      I’m expecting a huge Silver Spot drop in the next 24 to 36 hours…and have scraped together some dry powder & am ready to pull the trigger with if/when Silver goes down 45 cents…. or when gold gets hit $12-15 bucks…. my SD Bullion shopping cart just waiting for me….not sure how I’ll play it…just yet. But if BTC is at $4321, (Talk about evidence of USD distortion) then Gold in my hand for $1350 ish is somewhere way beyond a steal!!!!!

    • Ed_B

      And EVERYBODY: An excellent scientific presentation on the Grand Solar Minimum of work in solar physics that is comfiring Landscheidt’s (died. 2004) work on the solar torque cycle in terms of what is actually happening on the sun.  It is scientific but accessible to many.  It illustrates that is is not some crackpot theory involving aliens and Nibiru or whatever but real and developing events that are about to crash down on out lives as the sun goes into hibernation.  The trends of 2011 have continued since and are affecting the planet now.  This is a small slice of the whole picture but an an excellent introduction to reality.

      God help us.

      June 2011 announcement by the American Astronomical Society
      Published on 24 Aug 2011

      Peter Martinson presents the June 2011 announcement by the American Astronomical Society, about the future of our Sun, within the context of a creative universe. The Sun is not random, and neither is our planet’s relationship to it. So, our governments must quit posturing, and do something about it! For background material, please see:

      Richard Altrock, “Coronal Fe XIV Emission During the Whole Heliosphere Interval Campaign”
      Rachel Howe, et al., “The Torsional Oscillation and the New Solar Cycle”
      Matthew Penn & William Livingston,”Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields”

    • @ED_B

      Years ago, I bought a lot of reloading stuff from Midway, and I am pretty sure they are still around.

      I bought both the cheap Lee stuff, plus better stuff as well.

      Figured it would be good barter material.

       

    • @ LegoMyEggo

      There you go again, acting rationally.

      When I was in training to be a stockbroker with EF Hutton in 1966, we were told a story by one of the instructors concerning the Crash of 1929. As prices continued to plummet, one broker got tired of being screamed at by those clients who managed to actually get through to him on the phone. One such customer identified himself, then started screaming “SELL!  SELL!  SELL IT ALL!”

      To which the broker said, “To whom?”

      In other words, by the time TSHTF in the paper market precious metals, it will already be TOO LATE to acquire PHYZZ.  Which is why we agree 100% with your post.

    • @4 oz

       

      “Finally put Andrew McGuire into the Bull$hitter category…. it’s past time to “walk away” from anything Andrew McGuire.”

      Agreed.  I never was a big fan of his but hoped that his professional position allowed him some insight into the gold market.  London is a huge hub for the gold market, after all.  Despite this, little seems to have come of it.  🙁

       

      “But if BTC is at $4321, (Talk about evidence of USD distortion) then Gold in my hand for $1350 ish is somewhere way beyond a steal!!!!!”

      PMs apparently aren’t the only canaries in the coal mine these days.  The cryptos are showing that, although I still hold to my previous comment that they ARE now in their mania phase.  PMs did that back in 1980 and some of us on here observed that at the time.  A few of us even profited from it.  🙂

      But, as to $1350 or so gold, it may or may not be a steal, depending upon what happens in the coming weeks, months, and years.  I have been a steady gold buyer below $1200 and will be again IF the gold market cooperates.  If not, then I may have to pony up a little extra colored paper for the privilege of owning some colored metal.  😉

       

      @silverine

       

      “An excellent scientific presentation on the Grand Solar Minimum of work in solar physics that is comfiring Landscheidt’s (died. 2004) work on the solar torque cycle in terms of what is actually happening on the sun.  It is scientific but accessible to many.  It illustrates that is is not some crackpot theory involving aliens and Nibiru or whatever but real and developing events that are about to crash down on out lives as the sun goes into hibernation.  The trends of 2011 have continued since and are affecting the planet now.  This is a small slice of the whole picture but an an excellent introduction to reality.”

      OK, good.  Thanks for that pointer.  I will read that and see what I think.  I respect your opinion on things scientific.   I can see where there are many cycles in nature, some favorable to human beings and some not.  This appears to be one of the “nots”.  The good news is that human civilization has changed considerably since the previous GSM, so might be in a better position to handle such a problem.  My only question in that regard is, “Do they want to handle it or just let nature take its course?”.

       

      “God help us.”

      Indeed.  But like MANY challenges facing Mankind, this could well be yet another test from God.  I am sure that He knows quite well what happens in the future but we do not, so it is likely to be quite the learning experience.  If we mishandle it and a huge die-off occurs, oh well.  Humans are easy (and fun!) to make, so we WILL recover.  Since it is the spirit that truly matters and it is immortal, no real harm done.

       

      @Faranginkorat

       

      “Years ago, I bought a lot of reloading stuff from Midway, and I am pretty sure they are still around.”

      Yes, they are.  I am a regular customer of theirs and have bought a number of things from them.  Good company.

       

      “I bought both the cheap Lee stuff, plus better stuff as well.”

      Thanks to the low prices of Lee reloading equipment, I was able to replace all of my handgun die sets with carbide die sets.  These are amazing and work super well.  Wish that I had done this years ago, in fact.  I kept the non-carbide dies to use as trade goods to those who might want them.  They still work well but just not as smoothly or easily as do the carbide dies.

       

      “Figured it would be good barter material.”

      Agreed.  Having the ability to manufacture ammo from easily stored components will be a huge benefit in any SHTF scenario.  So is having a large supply of non-reloadable ammo, such as .22 rimfire ammo and shotgun shells for those (like me) who do not reload them.  I have just about used up some gunpowder and primers that I bought in bulk back in the 1980s.  It surprises me that these work perfectly well, even though they were not stored in a climate-controlled area.  They have been stored in my garage in their original boxes and canisters.  I expected the primers to be finicky but every single one of them has fired when called upon to do so.  They are all CCI brand, which I prefer.  They are nickel plated, which makes them slippery, and they fit into the primer pockets smoothly and snugly.  I also have some newer copper cup type primers that are more difficult to seat properly.  These work too but slow down my priming work, so are not my favorite primers.

       

      @PogoWuzRite

       

      “One such customer identified himself, then started screaming “SELL!  SELL!  SELL IT ALL!”   To which the broker said, “To whom?””

      Indeed.  For every sell order there must be a buy order.  During a mad rush for the exits, only a few will manage to get out of their equity positions.  The rest are trapped in there, unable to unload their positions.  This is one place where it REALLY pays to be a favored client.  Some of them will be the ones who will get out.

       

      “In other words, by the time TSHTF in the paper market precious metals, it will already be TOO LATE to acquire PHYZZ.”

      Agreed.  This is why doing what we can BEFORE the SHTF is so important.  Markets can turn and have turned very suddenly in the past and almost always for the worst.  Ignoring this market tendency is a HUGE error on the part of any investor, large or small.  Building a good stack of PMs over time is a critical part of avoiding that sick deer-in-the-headlights look people get as they realize just how screwed they are when the market collapses.  When, not if, that happens, those who have nothing but paper dollars in their wealth program or assets that are dollar-related, very well might not be able to trade them for things that have REAL value.  I can see a time coming when something of real value must be handed over in order to get something that is also of real value.  In this scenario, it will be gold and silver for food, land, vehicles, building and repair services, clothing, fuel, meds, etc.  In such a scenario, TP will be more valuable than fiat currency.  So will butane lighters, matches, needles and thread, ammo, etc.

      Sights such as this will become the norm rather than rare:

       

       

       

    • @ Ed_B
      That is exactly my point in the post above.
       
      I’m thinking that with the USD sinking so much AND at the same time PM Spot prices being pretty much being held in check in the same ‘o range that $1350 ish Gold price is equal to  or better than your,  “steady gold buyer below $1200 and will be again IF the gold market cooperates.”…never mind the numbers on the spot chart….. Gold @ $1350 is today is better than Gold at $1200 two years ago….Gold is range bound, while your Power Bill, Cable TV, or Chicken at the grocery store show ya what’s happened to and is still happening to the USD in your wallet.

    • Ed_B

      OK, good.  Thanks for that pointer.  I will read that and see what I think.  I respect your opinion on things scientific.   I can see where there are many cycles in nature, some favorable to human beings and some not.  This appears to be one of the “nots”.  The good news is that human civilization has changed considerably since the previous GSM, so might be in a better position to handle such a problem.  My only question in that regard is, “Do they want to handle it or just let nature take its course?”.

       

      Depends who “They” are.  Probably not if they are under the spell of the “Climate Change” deceivers as it will do a far better job of ending civilization than they could do with global warming.  They are ahead of the game by trying to get solar physics papers removed from journals that do not even mention “climatic change” and coming out with crud like “it will only slow down warming by 0.3 degrees”.

      Pakistan and Russia are preparing and have warned their respective populations to prepare for the GSM.  In Russia they do not censor science like they do in the West.

      In practice it will likely be far worse today than in the C17th.  Most of us live in towns and cities and we will starve.

       

      “God help us.”  … the government will not!  The government cannot.

       

      Indeed.  But like MANY challenges facing Mankind, this could well be yet another test from God.  I am sure that He knows quite well what happens in the future but we do not, so it is likely to be quite the learning experience.  If we mishandle it and a huge die-off occurs, oh well.  Humans are easy (and fun!) to make, so we WILL recover.  Since it is the spirit that truly matters and it is immortal, no real harm done.

      I’ll go with that!

      Your position on this is the right one.  Watch the weather and if it looks like all this might be right then up-sticks for the south(ish) and save your family.  I know the latter is not your game plan – now – but it may become so. ….

      I am not positioned to be able to do this apart from I do live in the SE of England.  I need a farming plan and significant cash. I cannot see a work around just yet.

      Let us face it whoever is in charge farmers will be protected.  The rest are dispensible.  It will get like that.  In fact the current math suggests a steeper and deeper fall into the GSM than is usual.

  1. It’s not that gold, or silver is bad or good, or fiat currency is bad or good.  Try to remove yourself from the propaganda coming from all sides, which is actually pretty clumsy.

    Gold and silver are metals, that’s all.  And as such they are subject to perception of worth, sentiment, perception of industrial use, production, supply/demand etc. and will be until the end of time.  What’s more, they are subject to control since the authorities don’t want them as competing stores of wealth.  And you thought buying them was a good idea!

    Similarly, all human currencies eventually inflate.  That’s how they all die.  6000 years of history and it’s always been the same, it will be the same until the end of time.  Because inflation is politically and economically expedient, and human beings always pursue the expedient path.

    Therefore, we know, with 100% certainty, that the fiat currencies will inflate.  We also know, with 100% certainty, that through this process the metals will not reflect the currency debasement.

    You have no choice!  And you never did.  Might as well try to grow another arm, or fly to Mars, or whatever else.  You were born into this world and you will die in it.  In the end, nobody wins.  Therefore, the correct approach is this:  make as much currency as you possibly can, and spend it on whatever you can.  Enjoy life.

     

    • “Therefore, we know, with 100% certainty, that the fiat currencies will inflate.  We also know, with 100% certainty, that through this process the metals will not reflect the currency debasement.”

      This has to be the dumbest statement I have ever read on this site, by far. The value gold was what in 1913? $18 The value of gold is what today? The value of silver was what in 1913? 50 cents The value of silver is what today?

      Are you really as stupid as your statement indicates, or are you just a paid troll?

       

    • @dolph you’re obviously ill informed.

      “inflation is politically and economically expedient, …”

      Sure it is, for the Thieving Banksters..

      Fractional Reserve banking IS Politically Sanctioned GRAND THEFT over all the private wealth of the world.  This is what King David called “Workers of Iniquity” and Legal Tender laws FORCE the common man to participate in this theft to their personal detriment..

      The Political class don’t want to Audit the FED Banksters or the Gold in Ft Knox because the TRUTH will expose the massive scale of wealth stolen over the past century..

      The guillotine needs to be dusted off and set up on the Washington Mall with live coverage​, one every 15 minutes. The MESSAGE being that “Workers of Iniquity” will no longer be tolerated..

    • “Similarly, all human currencies eventually inflate.”

      These obviously would be in opposition to the Reptilian Space Alien Currency?    🙂

      No wonder they give me the scaly eyebrow when I try to pass off a couple inflated Benjamin’s.

    • He’s been saying that forever.  Maguire has proven himself to be a professional BS artist with expertise in obfuscation.   KWN is just one huge pimp for Gold/Silver mining shares.

      Maguire always sounds convincing like all snake-oil salesman but unfortunately for him he shot himself in the foot and preceded to stick his foot in his mouth by prediction a huge rise in the price of Gold within 26 days from the middle of June.   Then he started pumping BullionCoin only to back-out at the last minute.

      The man in my book is a complete phoney.

    • It’s disappointing that Maguire’s claims haven’t materialized. I have to then ask, why make these claims? Who benefits?  I do believe in the sanity of precious metals, I just don’t like getting strung along by salesmen claiming to know what’s happening. Yes, I’m responsible for my own actions, but still BSers suck.

      5-6 years ago there was a stock trader named Dex who said the Fed would absolutely juice the Dow over 20,000. Nobody believed him, but he was right, everyone else was wrong.

    • “Nobody believed him, but he was right, everyone else was wrong.”

      I tend to believe those who back up their predictions with their OWN money.  Let me use Harry Dent as an example.  He keeps talking about $600 and now $400 an oz. gold… as if this precious metal can be mined and processed for that small amount these days.  It can’t.  But if Mr. Dent is firm in his belief, then he should buy a lot of GLD and mining share put options so that he can then profit handsomely from his prediction.  This is called “putting one’s money where their mouth is” and it is something that is sorely lacking among the PM price prognosticators.  As Tom Cruise once said in a movie, “SHOW ME THE MONEY!”.  😀

       

  2. This is an article I just released that may be of interest to some here:

    Gold Wars

    In this article I included a link to an interesting article on Bloomberg about several new blockchain based products that are coming to market soon that will claim to be gold backed currencies. After the spectacular failure of the BullionCoin launch, I have no doubt most will be skeptical of all of these kinds of products that are not physical gold and silver held in direct possession. But they are news events, so I try to cover them from the stand point of whether they might generate increased new demand for physical gold and silver (used to back the products). Like everyone else, I just try to follow these events and see what actually happens. I offer no predictions as to the impact on the precious metals markets.

    I do expect to be able to provide a Q&A type article with the CEO of GlintPay which is expecting to launch in Q4 of 2017. I was alerted to GlintPay by a blog reader who is of the highest credibility so I am going to offer the CEO of GlintPay the opportunity to talk about it on the blog with a Q&A style interview soon and then another later closer to launch. He was happy to do the interview and answer the questions and I expect to hear back from him pretty soon.

    TechCrunch did publish this article on GlintPay:

    https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/10/glint/

    I noted that fund manager Ben Davies is associated with this venture. He has been active in the gold markets for a number of years and may be a name some would recognize.

  3. Summer is almost over… and the Fall is coming.  The markets will turn as the green leaves move to shades of copper, silver, gold, and blood red.  The shifting winds of  trouble and unrest hurl the leaves downward to a heap of death and decay.  The Fall is almost here.   Stack and gather the nuggets… It’s going to be a long and hard winter.

  4. Dolph is most likely a paid troll.  Or he is one of the most ignorant posters on this board.

    “Therefore, we know, with 100% certainty, that the fiat currencies will inflate.  We also know, with 100% certainty, that through this process the metals will not reflect the currency debasement.”

    A 90% silver quarter in 1969 bought one gallon of premium gasoline.  A 90% silver quarter is worth $3.09. I just filled my tank and premium gasoline cost me $2.89.  So if I had cashed in a silver quarter I would get change back.   A phony non silver quarter would buy me ONE TENTH of a gallon of gasoline.  SO MUCH FOR THIS TROLL’S BULL#%$^!

    .

    • Look you idiot, every single day, every single month, every single year, you are getting older and older and closer to death.

      It doesn’t matter what something was worth 50 years ago, or what something will be worth 50 years from now.  YOU WILL NOT BE THERE TO SEE YOUR GAINS.

      Right now, in 2017, gold and silver are not reflecting the dollar debasement.  Stackers do not gain anything.

      Only the miners, banks, and refiners make any real money on gold and silver.  Everybody else is wasting their time.

      But if you want to waste your one life before you die, that’s your choice.

    • @Dolph…………“Stackers do not gain anything.”

      Your continued exhibitions of cerebral malfeasance will only do harm to your credibility. My recommendation would be to reconsider your unreasonable stance and dislodge this irrational spleen you foster for the shiny. Now grab yourself a few bars and start the process of healing.

      And now it’s time to share the completely absurd notion that the persona “Dolph” is really just Doc toying with us….to stir the pot. Doc…….You old rascal you! Honestly, when you consider it just why is it someone would “waste your one life” in continued head butting with a community of die hard stackers. Makes no sense at all really. I’m on to you Doc.    🙂

       

       

  5. My take on banks and fractional reserve banking

    This relatively new system for banking, started sporadically 200-300 years ago, took deep root in the last 100 years.  It sews the seeds of its own destruction for 3 reasons

    1.  Deposits are ‘levered’ between 10 and 20 fold, creating a form of debt obligation must be fed regularly with new money, making FRB a form of legal PONZI. The FRB must be fed regularly. Its appetite grows particularly voracious during down cycles.

    2.   FRB never takes into account business, real estate and economic cycles. The bankers are blinded by their own self defined managerial magnificence or haven’t experienced the wrath of one full cycle

    3.  Bankers are not stupid but they are greedy and compelled to take  imprudent risks with OPM to build their highly leveraged FRB while protected by the public and government, both of which are expected to bail out or bail in the bankers when the system crashes

    People in control of large amounts of money that they can ‘play with’, (yes, many think that way) even if getting caught can result in major punitive measures, means they will skirt the edge of the envelope. My former bank was always just outside the envelope of legality. As the fourth largest shareholder I got out while the getting was good.

    This skirting,  coupled with the fact that losses inure to the tax payers, makes the profit potential large enough that even bankers with a  reasonably developed  will to avoid doing stupid shit will eventually do stupid shit. And thus they destroy their bank.

    THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS. As a species we are so poorly evolved to handle large amounts of money that we will always screw the pooch.  Every time.  Without exception.  It just takes time.

    Banks are made up of people at every level making decisions that can, given enough time, come back to bite them.   The Fed was set up ostensibly to smooth out business cycles and provide liquidity from time to time.  It later took a mandate to create inflation and print FIAT with debt attached.   That set the wheels in motion for epic bank failures

    Fed policies made it necessary for every bank to work that much harder to beat the disintermediation effect that killed the staid and safe savings and loan system.  Even a solid banking system like that was killed by inflation and the  S&L bankers to take unreasonable risks, trying to save themselves and failing.

    What most people don’t realize is that banking cycles can take one or two decades to evolve.  Most people don’t pay attention to the cycle unless it hit them personally.  On the other hand bankers are always at the effect of the long cycle, whether they get involved early in the up cycle, during the maturation part of the cycle or the down slope deterioration part of the cycle. If you live in a banking environment a cycle will eventually kill your bank.

    I’ve known hundreds of bankers and few ever really retire, much less retire with a pension and enough capital to live on. As a 65 year old loan broker I see my generation of bankers, the ones I grew up with starting back 35-40 years ago, getting to that age when it’s time to hang up the spurs.   Few retire comfortably. Most have to work well past 65 and some even into their 70s

    Few have pensions from the present bank employers because this employee only worked at that bank for 10 years.  The banker is usually on their 5th or 6th bank employment contract.  Why so many employment slots over 35-40 years?  Because the 4 former banks all failed or were forced into a merger to save the failing bank.

    The employees were either let go or demoted.  Their former employing bank, in its failure, ended up with zero stock value, no pension funds or defined benefit plans and little opportunity for the employee to restart his or her career at the bottom of the rung.

    Do that 4 times and the 5th employer looks like heaven.  If only that financial ice floe stays afloat long enough for the employee to get to social security age with a small nest egg to carry them forward.  Please, he’s grasping at straws  Hang in there. ‘ I promise I’ll be good if you give me just one more bubble’

    In other words, banks, bankers and their fractional reserve systems eat their young; eat their parents and  then consumeanything else within reach of their fangs and maw if for no other reason that to survive another day.  Nothing is safe.  Nothing is sacred.

    Leaving anything of substance within reach of a bank is like leaving a steak in front of a hungry lion.

    It gets ever worse when a badly managed bank that makes billions from graft, theft and the trading of human souls can buy politicians.

    At that point in time it morphs into something resembling a cross between Godzilla and a sharknado

    Some may think me a fool for stacking I’ve been to the mountain and back. Stacking is one of the few expedients to protect nominal wealth from banks and FRB

    • @AGXIIK

      I think you will find that the fractional banking system is geared much lower than you think, well under 10 times.

      Many of the banks are geared higher, but that gearing does not come from the deposit-loan-deposit-loan etc. fractional banking.

      It comes primarily from their using money from sources other than owner equity and deposits.

       

       

  6. Good clip @rallyman   I particularly liked the boobs and $3 shots of booze sign on the wall of the bar   Even former bankers love cheap shots of  booze.

    A few thing about the Sharknado series.

    It’s funny; it’s serious; it’s got lots a chick with big boobs.  Almost like home movies

    I wish we’d had these as training films when I was a banker.

  7. “If You Don’t Hold It, You Don’t Own It”

     

    Anyone else out there notice that this comment seems to alternate with ads for PM vault storage services?  Seems to me that one OR the other should be true.  For my money, having PMs stored in a vault in a foreign country just adds distance and complexity to an already bad situation.  Instead of having one government finger in our financial pie, we suddenly have 2 or more.  And that helps us, how?  Even if it is stored in the same country where we live, it seems to me that things like this solve one problem by creating another.  I like the idea of keeping my PMs close where I can watch over them and discourage any meddling with them by those who don’t own them.

     

    • @K.Honaz

       

      “Thanks for something worthwhile to chortle with, AGXIIK and Ed_B.”

       

      Any time, KH… just returning the favor.  🙂

       

  8. “the correct approach is this:  make as much currency as you possibly can, and spend it on whatever you can.  Enjoy life.”

    How pathetic.  So to you life is all about living in a little box, traveling to work in a little box with wheels to toil away in a box to get printed paper to be spent so life can then be enjoyed?  This is exactly what the elite want and need you to believe.  The elite live in opulence beyond belief on wealth supplied by the useful idiots programed to believe they are nothing more than chemical machines competing with other chemical machines as if this existence is their only opportunity to experience consciousness.  So let it all hang out and live for today because death is the end and always near.  Puny humans indeed.

     

    • Agreed @FleePunyHumans

       

      But then, one expects that from the spiritually unaware.  Some just need more time to figure this out than others.  When the time is right for them, they WILL get it.  🙂

       

  9. @faranginkorat   True in some cases.  Leverage for some cautious banks is 10 to 1  Our bank was the poster child for high leverage which garnered more than a few wrist slaps from the Feds and ultimately an MOU.  Every bank but ours and two others in San Diego that received an MOU got a C and D within a few months.  Once the C and D was issued the bank was generally taken over in a few weeks to 2 months.  There were 1000 bank failures during that time period

    We used anything we could to ramp growth during the last 1980s and though most of the 1990s.  The board and senior officers were on a mission to grow the bank as fast as they could, using brokered CD at 6-8%, paying virtually nothing on DDAs and bumping rates on every loan that could booked. Our rate spreads were as much as 6%.

    The banking crash of 1991-1994 was caused by too many banks chasing each other and some self styled growth curve created by delusional boards and bank officers.  Our bank was lucky.  The board and officers were just crafty and sneaky enough to bob and weave as the state and Federal bank authorities came at us with their various regulatory degrees   Unlike every other bank in San Diego, we had a system for growth that relied on very aggressive loan approvals and a branch expansion that kept the bank just ahead of financial calamity

    Ultimately the goal of the board was to sell out to the highest bidder.  That was accomplished in 1998 when US Bank paid 6.5 times book for the bank, the highest on record.  The book of business they bought was worth a  $500,000,000 sales price.  From the time I liquidated my shares at $10 and the final price of $500 a share, the value increased 5000%.  Those who stayed the course were rewarded beyond their dreams   File clerks became millionaires.

    The moral of the story,  if there is one, was that our board et al rolled the dice, broke rules and anything that might be considered prudent banking.  They won that bet.  Every other I knew of lost that bet and was taken over.  The risks to the share holders, employees and investors was far and away beyond anything a conservative banker would do.
    In retrospect, the S&L crisis cost around $150 billion.. The 1991-94 bank crash cost around $500 billion. The big enchilada, the crash of 2006-2009,cost around $5-6 trillion
    The exponential growth of bank crisis failure costs means the next one could easily be $15 trillion in direct costs and uncountable trillions in indirect costs.

     

  10. Ranger is probably sending out caveat emptors from Heaven over this faulty forecast. RIP Ranger who never got the chance to witness gold have its day under the sun.

    Hemke predicts a major breakout for gold in Q4. But he missed the mark on the embarrassing failures of BullionCoin and Andrew Maguire. Hemke is truly living up to his moniker these days. His forecasts have been garbage.

    Gold’s rich history needs no introduction from fluffers such as Hemke and his carny friends. They are the worse sales pitches for gold ownership.

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