Harvey says the banks are most bothered by silver. COMEX has a problem, and in London, backwardation in silver (pay more for now Vs pay less for later) shows just how scarce physical silver truly is…

by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog

SEPT 11/IRMA NOT AS DEADLY AS HARVEY BUT STILL HALF THE STATE OF FLORIDA HAS NO POWER/ NOW CHARLESTON SC AND JACKSONVILLE UNDER WATER/ SAUDI ARABIA’S CROWN PRINCE SUPPOSEDLY VISITED ISRAEL AS BOTH NATIONS TRY AND DIVIDE THE SHIITE CRESCENT/CHINA ORDERS ALL BANKS TO CEASE DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA/

September 11, 2017 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · 2 Comments
GOLD: $1331.55 DOWN $15.05

Silver: $17.84 DOWN 19 CENT(S)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1327.50

silver: $17.80

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1342.23 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1337.40

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $4.83

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1339.31

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1336.40

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$2.91

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1338.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1338.60

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1334.20

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1334.50

For comex gold:

SEPTEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 0 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 51 FOR 5100 OZ (0.1586 TONNES)

For silver:

SEPTEMBER

388 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

1,940,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4,476 for 22,380,000 oz

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end

The hurricanes Harvey and Irma have been deadly to the housing sector in the Texas market and Florida and no doubt we will have problems in Charleston. Hundred’s of thousands of homes have been destroyed and must be replaced. The problem is that 85% of the home owners are not insured. Loans from FEMA will not help as the consumer is already maxed out.

As for gold/silver, the bankers are seeing a huge OI in gold but it is silver that is bothering them. In London, we now have backwardation Sept over December which should give you the comfort that physical silver is scarce over there. On this side of the pond, we again have an increase in physical silver standing at the comex.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY STEADY 1189 contracts from 187,152 UP TO 188,341 WITH THE TINY SIZED DROP IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 1 CENT(S). AFTER THURSDAY’S FAILED FLASH CRASH, MORE NEWBIE SILVER LONGS BECAME EMBOLDENED ON FRIDAY TO TAKE ON THE BANKERS. THE BANKERS HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO SEE SILVER’S PRICE BREAK AWAY FROM THEM SO AGAIN, ONCE LONDON WAS PUT TO BED, ORCHESTRATED FLASH CRASH AND THEY CONTINUED THE ASSAULT WITH ANOTHER FLASH CRASH AT 6:10 EST SUNDAY NIGHT

RESULT: A GOOD RISE IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT PRICE LOSS.

In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.941 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 388 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,940,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A MODEST 2137 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN in price of gold ($1.10 GAIN ON FRIDAY). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 577,444.

AGAIN, THE NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPECS ENTERING THE GOLD ARENA INCREASES WITH EACH PASSING DAY, AND OUR COMMERCIALS AGAIN SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER. ONCE LONDON (AND CHINA) WERE PUT TO BED, THE BANKERS FLASH CRASHED AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHICH HAD NO REAL EFFECT. THAT IS WHY THEY ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER FLASH CRASH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

Result: A MODEST SIZED LOSS IN OI DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($1.15). THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. MORE NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE COMEX CASINO WILLING TO TAKE ON THE BANKERS. ONCE THE PHYSICAL TIME ZONE WAS OVER, ANOTHER FLASH CRASH WAS INITIATED WITH LITTLE EFFECT. THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER FLASH CARASH ON MONDAY AS THEIR CRIMINAL ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Tonight , we had a huge change in gold inventory: a withdrawal of 2.37 tonnes and no doubt that this paper gold was used in the raid today.

Inventory rests tonight: 834.50 tonnes

SLV

Today: no change in inventory.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.088 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A STEADY 1189 contracts from 187,152 UP TO 188,341(AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT LOSS IN TRADING. SILVER ROSE IN PRICE NICELY ON FRIDAY ONLY TO BE FLASH CRASHED SOUTHBOUND AS SOON AS THE PHYSICAL ZONE TRADING FINISHED. THE BANKERS CONTINUED WITH ANOTHER FLASH CRASH TODAY.

RESULT: A HIGHER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE SLIGHT FALL IN PRICE OF 1 CENT. ANOTHER BANKER FLASH CRASH FAILED ON FRIDAY SO THEY INITIATED ANOTHER FLASH CRASH TODAY..

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A MODEST 2137 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 577,444 DESPITE THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.10 GAIN IN FRIDAY’S trading). On Friday, more newbie longs entered the casino, oblivious to the high OI in place. These specs seem emboldened to take on the bankers who will supply the necessary paper until their dying day. Once London was put to bed, the bankers orchestrated another flash crash which ended in failure as the bankers wanted a bigger fall in price and their wish for more gold leaves to fall was roundly defeated. THE BANKERS PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO KNOCK OPEN INTEREST DOWN, PROCEEDED WITH ANOTHER FLASH CRASH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

Result: a MODEST SIZED open interest DECREASE with an SMALL sized RISE in the price of gold.

The new non active September contract month saw it’s OI FALL BY 4 contracts DOWN to 828. We had 0 notices filed on FRIDAY so we LOST 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will NOT stand AND 4 EFP’s WERE ISSUED which entitles them to a fiat bonus plus a deliverable contract on a different exchange and most likely that would be London. These are private deals so we do not get to see the makeup of these deals only the number of EFP’s issued.

The next active contract month is Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 2361 contracts DOWN to 42,789.

The November contract saw A GAIN OF 70 contracts UP to 257.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSS OF 2151 contracts DOWN to 454,725.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for NIL oz

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And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE BY A STEADY 1,189 CONTRACTS FROM 187,152 UP TO 188,341 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TINY 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE. NEWBIE LONG SPECS CERTAINLY BECAME MORE EMBOLDENED TO TAKE TO TAKE ON SOME OF OUR BANKERS ON FRIDAY WITH TRUMP NEWS TO THEIR LIKING AS WELL AS THE HURRICANE DISASTERS–HARVEY AND THE UPCOMING IRMA AND JOSE. THUS NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA WITH THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER. ONCE LONDON WAS PUT TO BED, ANOTHER FLASH CRASH WAS ORCHESTRATED TRYING TO OBTAIN A MUCH LOWER SILVER PRICE AS WELL AS TO CAUSE MANY SILVER LEAVES TO FALL FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE. IT CERTAINLY ENDED IN FAILURE. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER FLASH CRASH LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH AS AGAIN THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY INCREASED AGAIN. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS PHENOMENA FOR THE PAST 5 MONTHS. (SEE BELOW).
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE. DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER RISES AGAIN AS THE AMOUNT STANDING INCREASES FOR THE SEPT CONTRACT MONTH. THE BANKERS THIS TIME DID SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER AS THEY COULD NOT CAUSE ANY SILVER LEAVES (OI) TO FALL!!. A FLASH CRASH INTENDED TO LOWER THE SILVER PRICE BELOW 18.00 AS WELL AS CAUSE MANY SILVER LEAVES HAS BEEN ORDERED BY OUR BANKERS TODAY
We are now in the active contract month of September (and the last active month until December). Today we witness Sept. OI FALL by 319 contacts DOWN to 1301. We had 388 notices filed on Friday, so we again gained 69 contracts or an additional 345,000 oz will stand for delivery. This phenomenon has been happening in silver for the past 5 months whereby the amount standing increases on each and every delivery day. This queue jumping highlights the huge demand for silver that we have been witnessing around the globe. The next non active contract month for silver after September is October and here the OI GAINED 94 contacts UP TO 1066. November saw a GAIN of 23 contract(s) and thus ADVANCING to 56. After November, the NEXT big active contract month is December and here the OI GAINED 86 contracts UP to 162,901 contracts.

We had 388 notice(s) filed for 1,940,000 oz for the SEPT. 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: 178,251 CONTRACTS WHICH IS FAIR

FRIDAY’S confirmed volume was 413,409 which is excellent

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER
Sept.11/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
96.43 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
2120.04 oz
Delaware
Scotia
includes 4 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today

0 notice(s)
NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
828 contracts
(82,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
51 notices
5100 oz
0.1586 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

Today we HAD 1 kilobar transaction(s)/
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
we had 1 customer deposit(s):
i) Into Brinks: 96.453 oz
total customer deposits; 96.453 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)
i) out of Delaware: 1,991.44 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 128.600 oz (4 kilobars)
total customer withdrawals; 2120.04 oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)
For SEPT:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPTEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (51) x 100 oz or 5100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (828 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 87,900 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPT.

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month:
No of notices served so far (51) x 100 oz or ounces + {(832)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 87,900 oz standing in this active delivery month of SEPTEMBER (2.734 tonnes)
We LOST 4 contracts or 400 oz will NOT stand and 4 EFP’s were issued for September which gives the long holder a fiat bonus plus a deliverable product on another exchange and that most likely will be London.
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Total dealer inventory 741,512.035 or 23.064 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,696,919.037 or 270.510 tonnes

Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 270.44 tonnes for a loss of 33 tonnes over that period. Since August 8/2016 we have lost 34 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 13 MONTHS 84 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH
September initial standings
Sept 11 2017

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
156,914.35 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,242,926.200 oz
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
388 CONTRACT(S)
(1,940,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
913 contracts
(4,565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4476 contracts (22,380,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month 4,150,053.7 oz

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of Brinks: 156,914.35 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 156,914.35 oz
We had 2 Customer deposit(s):
i) Into CNT: 599,781.900 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 643,144.300 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 1,242,926.200 oz

we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of CNT: 145,838.626 oz was transferred from the customer into the dealer account of CNT
The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER. contract month is represented by 570 contract(s) for 2,850,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4476 x 5,000 oz = 22,380,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (1301) and the number of notices served upon today (388) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER contract month: 4476 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(1301 ) -number of notices served upon today (388)x 5000 oz equals 26,945,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month. This is excellent for this active delivery month. Silver is being constantly demanded at the silver comex and we witness again the amount of silver demanded daily increase right from the get go. (ON AUGUST 31 (FIRST DATE NOTICE) WE HAD 20.15 MILLION OZ STAND. THUS IN THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, WE HAVE HAD A HUGE INCREASE OF 6.9 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY AS DEALERS JUMP QUEUE TRYING TO FIND THE NECESSARY SILVER TO SUPPLY TO OUR LONGS.)

WE HAD AN INCREASE OF 69 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 345,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS HAS BEEN THE 5th CONSECUTIVE MONTH THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED EITHER AN INCREASE (95% OF THE TIME) OR STANDING PAT (THE OTHER 5%). WE HAVE NOT HAVE A DECREASE IN STANDING I.E. AS THEY DELIVERY MONTH PROCEEDS NOBODY WISHES AN EFP PRODUCT IN EXCHANGE FOR A DEPARTING LONG.SOMEBODY BIG WANTS SILVER IN A VERY BIG WAY.
Last yr on the first day notice for the Sept silver 2016 contract we had 17.070 million oz stand for delivery.
By month end: 16.075 million oz/

Volumes: for silver comex
ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: 41,3125 CONTRACTS WHICH IS HUGE
YESTERDAY’s confirmed volume was 91,655 contracts which is GIGANTIC
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 91,655 CONTRACTS WHICH EQUATES TO 458 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 66% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.

Total dealer silver: 42.356 million (close to record low inventory
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 217.761 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

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  1. There was a silver shortage a couple years back and what happened is the rationing began.  Quite a few buyers noted they had to wait 2 to 8 weeks for their ASE’s or bullion to get delivered.

    If silver is in short supply again I’d expect them to use the same playbook which is to ration.  Sorry no default is in the cards folks!!  The last time silver hardly changed in price but the dealers really enjoyed the short squeeze as they got to kill their clients who did panic buying into the metals.  Looking back a couple years later its pretty obvious the only ones that made money were the dealers charging significant premiums.  Instead of charging the usual $2 or $3 premium on ASE’s they were charging $5 to $10 premiums.  Easy Money!!

    I bet all of the silver dealers can’t wait to post this article!  LOL

    • I agree that the notion of the Crimex going bust simply isn’t going to happen. It’s not a significant vehicle for delivery – never has been never will be. Yet we’ve been being fed this nebulous tale of intrigue for 7 years – ITS JUST AROUND THE CORNER!

       

      We just need a good old collapse. Nothing more.

    • There were never 10 dollar premiums in 2015. 4 dollars at most. Trolls falsifying history. In 2008 it reached 8 which is the highest I have seen

    • @Powerball

      And I bought Mexican libertades at $1.99 over spot and got a quite a few of those Kooks for $1.49. I have rolls and rolls of them to prove it.

      You guys need to lay off the ASEs like they are some magic coin.

      Bars, generics and a few sovereigns that hold their premiums due to the lower mintages are the key.

  2. No shortage of 90% silver in last half of 2015. People were selling there 90% silver in 2015. Ase’s(2015) were  hard to get in 2015, older ase’s were available during 2015. I go to the oldest coin shop in Central Texas, they are well connected,  always stocked with ase’s. 

    Stacking and packing

    • I’m at the point now that I either buy whatever’s the cheapest or the prettiest depending on how bitchy I am.

       

      At this point anything at 25 bucks canadian per coin or less, and I’m fine with it. Continuing to stack after taking a break for some time keeps me not sane, but rather less crazy.

    • @Canadian Dirtlump

      Make a list of 2014-2016 coins pricing premium, and compare the premium to the 2017 mintage.

      I have found that Canadian wildlife series coins, Aussie Kooks & Mexican Libertades are the best sovereign coins to collect.

      ASEs, Philharmonics, Brittanias, etc. all are roughly 2 or 3$ over spot regardless of year. They have high mintages.

    • @plataporfavor

       

      yeah I have tubes of all the RCM wildlife / bird of prey / predator stuff. Sad to have to try to cherry pick what is going to do the best on premiums, since the idiotic prognostications by the PM luminaries about their prices exploding ( or even going up marginally ) have been and are 100% wrong.

  3. Backwardation is bearish.  It has always been bearish.  Never in my whole trading life have I seen backwardation preclude anything but a selloff.  Harvey Organ is a retard if he hasn’t learned that after all the beatings he has taken buying into backwardation.  Only an idiot would spend more for a product in spot that he can get cheaper in a month.  Backwardation indicates excess speculation in the front month.  The best you can say about backwardation is that maybe it isn’t announcing a major selloff is coming…this time.  But guess what, here it is, and here we are selling off.

    I am so sick of these friggen idiot pumpers and friggen idiot doomsayers that know absolutely nothing about markets or trading being presented as experts.  Organ, Dent, MacQuire (the king of all idiots), and all the rest that don’t know crap.  The guys from Miles-Frankin are reasonably intelligent.  But FFS, some of these idiots need to be choked out by a gorilla if that is what it takes to get them to STFU.

  4. Harvey’s data is good but the interpretation is often a bit confusing (to me). The summary:

    “A GOOD RISE IN OI COMEX <1189 contracts> DESPITE THE 1 CENT PRICE LOSS.”

    doesn’t convey a clear message. Does he mean that the banskers created (out of thin air) an additional 1189 x 5000 = 5.945M oz of silver and after dumping that into the market could only get the price down by 1c?

    While I really do appreciate Harvey’s passion and dedication. I struggle to read the whole blog and so (more often) don’t read any of it. (I think) the blog could (and should) be shortened by 90% to just convey (1) what happened and (2) who did what. In other words, I would appreciate a daily analysis of the COT report. That would be a service worth reading and paying for. It would both save Harvey a huge amount of time and effort and also make his work readable.

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