At some point, the question becomes “why”. With gold now up 17% year-to-date, silver is up just half that amount at 9.5%.  And yet, the latest CoT report shows the highest silver Commercial net short position since 2008.
Again, why? Why now?



Submitted by Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report:

That’s truly the $64MM question. Why are The Silver Banks shorting so aggressively here? What’s the difference in holding price below $16 versus $18 or $20? We’ll get a look at the latest CoT data tomorrow but, for now, consider this:

There was a CoT survey taken on Tuesday, December 29, 2015. The closing price of silver that day was $13.93. The data showed that the Silver Commercial NET short position was just under 30,000 contracts as they were long 52,149 contracts and short 82,027.

The most recent CoT data released last Friday was surveyed back on Tuesday, February 16. That day, silver closed at $15.33. Versus December 29, price had risen by $1.40 or almost exactly 10%. And how had the Silver Commercial NET short position changed? They were now long 44,638 contracts and short 114,700 for a NET short position of 70,062 contracts. Again, this is the largest Silver Commercial NET short position since 2008.

Additionally, look at what has transpired in the six days since that last CoT survey. Total Comex silver open interest has risen by another 7,000 contracts, which very likely increases the Silver Commercial NET short position to over 75,000 contracts…all the while, price has actually fallen by 4¢.

Therefore, it isn’t very difficult  to predict what’s likely to come next. A price raid. Do you recall this chart from last October?

Or how about this chart from last Friday?

It is abundantly clear that JPM and their fellow Big Shorts on the Comex are intent upon attempting to enforce lower prices. Otherwise, why would they be so adamant about selling into and capping every attempted rally? And this latest capping effort is the most egregious yet! It’s perfectly fine for any entity, Commercial or Spec, to liquidate longs into an ongoing rally and, as noted above, the Silver Commercials have dumped nearly 7,500 contracts so far in 2016. However, what is definitely NOT fine is to allow the unlimited creation of paper silver in order to meet Speculator paper demand.

Again, note that the Silver Commercial gross short position back in late December was 82,027 contracts. That’s a contractual obligation to deliver up to 410MM ounces of silver if called upon to do so. As of last Tuesday February 16, the Silver Commercial gross short position had grown to 114,700 contracts or 573MM ounces of silver. That’s 60% of all the silver the world will mine in 2016!

So the questions must be asked again:

  1. Where would price be today if the Silver Commercials had not sold and shorted so many contracts into this 2016 rally?
  2. And if the buyer/seller equilibrium price was $18 instead of $15, what would be the difference?
  3. And why are the Commercials so intent upon capping silver? Over the same time period, gold has risen 17% but the Gold Commercial NET short position remains below levels seen at price peaks in 2014 and 2015.

Could this chart have anything to do with it?

So, we’ll have to see what happens next. Logic dictates that a price raid is coming that will allow the Commercials to buy back and cover some of their short position while the Specs stream for the exits. But then what? The chart above shows an increasingly untenable position for JPM and their friends. Paper price seems to have been driven as artificially low as possible, thus the effort made to hold it back is increasing. And we haven’t even mentioned the gold:silver ratio!

What’s the best strategy for dealing with all of this? For me, it’s the continued, gradual stacking of physical silver. Predicting the precise date of the failure of the silver manipulation scheme is a fool’s errand. But, fail it will, just as all price manipulations before it have similarly failed. And, WHEN it fails, the events will be spectacular to behold.



    • They were free to get rid of their shorts anytime in the past month.

      Since COMEX is not a phisical exchange, it’s basically a casino. So what if total chips add up to more than the total income of the municipality? It’s just doing good business.

    • From my friend Conax over at ZH today,

      “In all the time I’ve watched it, I’ve never seen this high a volume to drag it ass backward.

      At 9:55 they turned up the heat to stuff it, by 10:05 fully 789,000 contracts were algoed back and forth, the highest seen in a 10 minute period, well, EVER. Since 8:00 it’s been massive, but those ten minutes were stunning. Without regulation, anything is possible now.

      So silver looks like shit but it took a massive paper blizzard to snatch the price down this time. I never want to hear anyone call other countries ‘corrupt’ ever again.  We live in the Great Satan.

      Look at our leadership.. look at this ‘market’ shit. The stench goes up to Heaven.  DEATH to Our Moneychangers.”


    • BOP- 2 years ago this use to really demoralize me.

      Now I know the enemies tactics, recognize the huge footprints left and go short when he does, long when it’s”clear”… correlate this COT data to a weekly- it is undeniable! Bought PUTs early last week on select ones, some in the money, some neutral, but over next 2 weeks- we’re going down punkin’!



    • My question is, why hasn’t some hacker(s) gotten into the futures market and the Comex and found out who is using paper gold/silver to depress the price and then published the perp at all the appropriate places so everyone knows who to blame and where to look for them.

      Just sayin…

  1. @shamus001   This might be a good price point for a silver buy

    I pulled the trigger on the 59 cents over spot Buffaloes offered here, locking and paying at $15.83 as the ‘all in’ price  mid day Thursday


    I left 43 cents on the table, not realizing that silver was going to get smacked down today.

    This could be an good entry point

    • Added this week too…and not worried about price smash costing me a extra few bucks today….I wanna get while the getting is good. And hope to keep right on doing so too.


      Props to Craig Hemke for his usual excellent analysis and a great call going into the weekend.


      I’m thinking the real fun begins next week and cant wait to hear from the Doc about Mint allocations as we go into March….. pass the popcorn and It’d be very appropriate for someone to post the Pat Fields line somewhere in these comments….cuz it was the best call of all…..

    • @AGXIIK I was just going to message you about that!

      Nice call BTW! you said you thought it was going to dip once more before steadily going up. 🙂

      Where do I subscribe to the AGXIIIK crystal ball website & newsletter? LOL

    • I bought some paper currency today…3 $1 bills.  It says on the bottom, “One dollar payable in silver to the bearer on demand.”  3 pristine Silver certificates.  3 for $9.  They…they were just so beautiful and couldn’t resist.  I have some others, $5’s, $10’s, etc.    For ole times sake…for an ole school guy and his grandkids.

      Only honest paper I’ve had.

      ps.  Dropped c note at the lcs.  5 ase’s and 5 Mercury dimes.

      Don’t go down without one helluva fight”




  2. “Therefore, it isn’t very difficult  to predict what’s likely to come next. A price raid”

    TF has seen this movie before, as we all have. When the dust finally settles on this $hit show, there needs to be Nuremburgh style trials broadcast globally. But in the meantime, thanks for the deal, suckers.

  3. US Mint 2016 Silver Eagle Sales

    January      5,954,500

    February    4,045,500

    Total          10,000,000

    The US Mint just can’t source enough Silver to sell at this pace…Something must change…and quickly.

    Fully expecting the premiums on American Silver Eagle coins to be equal to spot by the 4th of July & will have exceeded spot by Labor Day.

  4. Been shorting again this year through options expiry. As I mentioned and recommended the previous 2 yrs it has proven to be the greatest and easiest trade in world history. Proven to be great source of income as well  insurance against physical loses in the 5 yr bear market in silver.  As well as providing essentially free metals with the obscene amounts of cash being given away.

  5. Well,

    I note that Au has “regained” about 1/2 of what was lost, so far…

    And..Ag has not…in fact, it’s showing a DOA line on the graph….

    Seems to reinforce that SILVER is the real play here – ie: the “weak point” in all these devious plays by the elite, etc… Gold won’t stay “down” for them…bad doggie!

    We are on the right path here, mate’s… Just keep taking another 100 oz off the table every day/week/mo, whatever you can manage and get your friends and family to step up now too… of course, packing while stacking is advised for all..



  6. Marco Rubio is a dork! Choker is spelled this way, I cant believe he went publuc to make fun of Donalds tweet calling it “chocKer”.

    Its one thing to misspell something, its another thing to hold a rally as a spelling nazi, and be wrong vocally! Lol

  7. Originally I held only Silver BUT I saw the writing on the wall and changed to Gold. (I still have some Silver).

    The big story at the moment is the continual attack on Silver.   I don’t believe it.   It is just a ploy to make people ignore Gold which is the only play of the central banks.   My feeling is they want the majority of buyers to concentrate on Silver and ignore Gold.

    That’s my opinion for what it’s worth.

    • so… the main stream media all across the west has turned on the positive news about gold because they want people to ignore gold?

      what about when they called gold pet rocks – did they want people to buy at that time?

      they are losing control, and the least/slowest damage for them will occur if only gold appreciates. so they reluctantly let that happen and focus their efforts on silver – silver is their number one enemy.

      i also see numerous commenters here and other PM sites who pretend to be into PMs but subtly “push” people into the same direction as what the bankers want.

      the fact that they now promote gold in their media is very telling. the fact that gold has been allowed to rise but silver has been more tightly held down is also telling. silver is the stuff to be buying now.

      p.s. there are ZERO stories in MSM about silver. i wonder why!

  8. @Shamus001    AGXIIK’s  fav site, a nice piece of freeware and worth every farthing of entry fee,  can be found under

    Secret password is  Oink Oink Oink.

    Only four legged critters can apply for membership.

    Results guaranteed.

    Your money back if you are not 100% satisfied.

    Blind Pig thinks today is a good day. Monday might be pretty lively too.  Cartel is crapping the bed. Someone said that with bourses closing for a few hours due to serious potentials for crashes, next week might be Arte Johnson’s version of Veeeery Interesting.  Possible market closes for hours or days might be in the offing.  POMO and Euro bourse were affected this week.  ESF was working the levers to keep US markets from going TU. China and EU were pulling the same levers. Fear factor is high.  Sand Box is sending some big warnings and Putin will take no s*** from the likes of Kerry, Obama, the Saudi royals or Erdogan.  The ME action will be hard and fast.  Gold is a fear metal. Silver is a war metal.

    Heck, I think I convinced myself to buy more shiny Monday

    If I hear anything in the next 48 hours from my Piggie I’ll let you know.  Next week is shaping up to be a doozie and I don’t mean that in a good way.

    Gun show this weekend.  I’m going heavy on the usual calibers.

  9. @Shamus001  I find myself arguing with Blind Pig but he told me to look at the Kitco Charts

    On Wednesday 2-24 the silver price took the shape of a cowboy hat.  Price action up on left side, a little leveling off as cartel tried to fight the rise, then another increase to the top of hat.  From there a fight down the right side of the hat, a level off and then down to the same level on  right side of hat as left side.  Nice shape to the hat

    Thursday was a back and forth with no clear winner—just cycling up and down a few pennies.  I went in with a buy, thinking that in the price action, silver might win but forgot that options and other AG unwinds could take price down.  I guessed wrong but am happy with the trade .

    Friday started with an inverse of the hat pattern, showing a steep price angle downward and flattening at the bottom, like two of the three sides of a Fez. If the price pops back up we have the Whirling Dervish pattern, with the Fez completed.    If the Fez fails and price drops, failing to even hold a small pop, then Monday momentum could hammer the price down into mid 14 as cartel shows its desperation

    BTW   The price pimps and cartel read our thoughts just as we read theirs.  This whole market reminds me of one of my family reunions.  Lots of whiskey and bad attitudes in the pig pen. before you know it a hockey game breaks out with an MMA cage match in the corner

    The stock and bond markets plus oil affect all of this but just like a tag team WWE match, it’s hard to tell the bad guys from the good.
    I’m taking odds that the Sheik and Triple H will get the crap kicked out of them by The Rock and Hunk Hogan.  But then again, I date myself.

    I’m just hot for Rhonda Rousey   Taming the Shrew would be nothing compared to having a go ‘around with her.  😉

    • The great battle to kill the cancer of currency produced from nothing by private banks that are basically crime syndicates taking the Western World to entire destruction is heating up day by day and we will win,history tells us nothing else.On to Victory !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




  10. Looks like the cartel killed silver  Half a Fez is better than none now that it’s clear silver is the easier of the two shiny metals to whip.

    Hafez I say.

    Gold bounced a bit and closed off its lows. Silver just laid on the canvas, taking the 10 count.  If I wanted to do some precious metal ass whipping on Monday I’d put money on the weaker of the two.  I’m betting AG will be kicked down more.  Gold might stay sort of healthy since the $1200 magnet is losing its pull.

    Maybe Monday will be a good day to acquire more AG

Leave a Reply