Silver Update: Bull Over?


BrotherJohnF is back with another Silver Update, discussing whether the pundits are correct and the silver bull is dead, or if in fact we are merely in the midst of a long bull market correction/consolidation.

Silver Update: Bull Over?

Comments

  1. If the bull market was over we’d know.  Just because a few talking heads whose sole purpose is to put you in paper say it’s over doesn’t mean a damn thing.  Nothings changed.  Anyone who looks at a ten year chart of silver will see long consolidation periods.  What was the price of silver a year after it hit 50 in 1980?  

  2. There’s been sideways movements of silver for over two years.  It seems greed is getting the better of people.

  3.  A few random thoughts.                          Equities will take a large hit this year, possibly as much as 20%, and maybe even 40%, probably by the 3rd Q earnings  period unless Europe hits the market sooner since it’s going into serious recession at this moment.  That will suck our economy into another recession even if QEIII hits the streets.  That excess liquidity will go to hard assets, not chase falling stocks

    .  One strong reason for  favoring  hard assets is the new taxes that will come about in 2013 plus the sunset of the Bush tax cuts.  Those two tax burdens will crush stocks, both the dividend and non-dividend types. High taxes favor hard assets that can be held for a long time period, avoiding the consequences of higher cap gain tax rates.   If the stock market is $20 trillion or so, and only a small portion of this fund base  splits off from equties, rotating  into perceived cheap assets like gold and particularly silver we could see a boom in prices.

      $50 billion in cash coming into silver, twice the value of the total production of silver this year, or $1 trillion into gold, 20% of the of the value of that metal above ground, could push the prices upwards through the piling-on effect.  When that much money chases scarce assets that can’t be produced or coughed up like a stock or bond, the price usually goes up  See oil prices as a reference.  See silver and gold in 1980. With ZIRP as the US fiscal policy through 2015, capital allocation is skewed and thrashes around like a wounded animal.  If interest rates rise, then things will get really interesting.  Some rates are beginning to  rise just so slightly, like home loans, business loans and consumer finance costs.  The UST is the only one holding the line while European bond rates are going up like a rocket.

    One last thought.  I have heard and seen the Fibonnaci numbers discussed in pricing of equities.  If I recall, an asset will usually decline by about 35%.   If it does not recover to its previous price, it could drop another 35% or so.  If this holds true for silver, we have seen a drop of about 38% in silver from its peak in April 2011 until today.  Can anyone else offer a thought on that. I may be completely off.     

  4. AG – would those sorts of sequences and predictors be of any use in Blythe’s World tho?  Won’t the manipulation of prices throw all that off until an actual free market is in play?

  5. Watching for the “Mother Of All Smackdows”  and gonna back up the truck—STACK THE SMACK –  when it hits.

  6. AGIIX

    true dat!

    I’ve been foretelling (in my own mind anyway) the equity plunge as well. Alot of average joes  are gonna get blindsided in a huge way if they don’t heed the warning signs.

    I’m probably missing something in the bigger picture but, Makes me wonder if JPM is dumping their shorts and piling up the bullion in preperation for a big shift. into futures when the masses can’t get phyzz. 

  7. Ah yes, the infamous Blythe and her silver plated steely dan looking for a market to stimulate.  She is smart and nothing if not a trade winds whore.* If the markets blow up and equities lose steam, smashing average Joe’s 401K, allowing the GRA fed pension snatch to  be instituted, there should be a fair amount of people and their money running from the market or from the  Guaranteed Retirement Annuity that will absorb some of the remaining pension assets.  We don’t have to be smart like B, just a little more aware and forewarned that most when the buyers flock to the shelter of hard assets.

    Some people, including us, will see the handwriting sooner than later. Physical silver and gold, with their tiny markets ready to be bought, even a small amount should flow into that.  Blythe may capitulate to the long side of the trade and since she invented that sort of push me-pull you trading system, she will be an hour or day ahead of us. No worries there.   My take to beat the market is buy those physical assets for the long pull, taking what appreciation comes our way over the next several years while I have  my paper assets out of the way of whatever befalls us.  This is my best guess.  It seems that alot of people are thinking in similar manners.  

    *Trade winds whore. I made that one up in regards to Ms B.  The sort of woman goes ankles up for any ship, any crew and any cargo, blowing by any wind  that fetches up on her little island.  She takes it from everyone in every manner possible.

  8. lol I am typing this with one eye closed, still need to take that nap. The only correction I see is the correction where one must correct and/or restore one’s wealth by switching from fiat to honest money. I really don’t care about fiat based prices as long as I can afford to acquire and stack physical silver.

  9. You guys are thinking too much.

    Simply work hard, cut on your expenses and switch some FRN for silver on a regular basis.

    Anything else is random noise.

  10. off topic

    Just found this on the web:

  11. LMAO Bull Market over? Ok guys I’m paying 80% spot for your Silver. Any Takers? LMAO

  12. Erdog: That “ON TOPIC” I always like to see images like this:
    Here’s some others:



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