Silver Cleared For Take-Off, January Target: $44

By Morris Hubbartt

Silver is an ideal metal to accumulate on price weakness.  The market is currently oversold.  Please note how perfectly the price has pulled back to the green downtrend line, after staging a magnificent breakout!  Silver’s RSI and CCI indicators are currently flashing strong buy signals.  I expect the $44 price target will be acquired by January, 2013.  The “silver plane” appears to be cleared for take-off. 
Are you are on board?

US Dollar Sell Signals Chart

 

  • The CCI indicator put in a spike high on Monday, and that suggests the dollar is making a top.  A spiking CCI is most dependable when it is accompanied by soft volume, as it was on Monday.

 

  • The head & shoulder top formation that I’ve highlighted on this chart is very well shaped.

 

  • For this pattern to be considered to be “activated”, the dollar should trade below the neckline for at least two consecutive days.  Once that happens, a target price of 72 will be in play.

 

  • My “slow Stokes” (Stochastics) indicator is also flashing a strong sell signal.  My recommendation is to avoid the dollar.  Focus on gold.

 

Dow Diamonds (Dow Proxy ETF) Crash Targets Chart

 

  • The general equity market has completed a small head & shoulders top pattern.  Note the massive increase in sell-side volume over the past 2 days.  Crashes can follow this type of volume & price pattern.

 

  • If the Dow crashes, I expect gold stocks to soar. 

 

Gold Fib 50 Chart 

 

  • Last Friday, gold moved towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement line at $1662, and now a “buy volume” spike is in play.

 

  • The next COT report is an important one, and I expect it to show that commercial traders covered a lot of short positions.  Long term core positions should be built in times of market turbulence. I advocate holding some physical metal outside of the banking system.

 

  • My next significant targets for gold are $1850 and $2015.  From about $2015, I expect a consolidation, and then even higher prices.

 

  • A key technical event in the gold market is the recent spike by the CCI indicator. On this chart, I’ve highlighted 5 similar CCI spikes down.  You can see that the gold price tends to rise significantly after these spikes.

 

  • A CCI spike doesn’t mean the decline in gold will end immediately, but it does mean a turn is near. Following the most recent CCI spike, gold bottomed on Tuesday, Nov 6th.  I think a major move higher is underway now.

 

GDX Right Shoulder Focus Chart

 

  • The above chart clearly displays a bull pennant formation. The pennant is highlighted with two green trend lines.  It forms the right shoulder of an enormous head & shoulders bottom.

 

  • The target of this head & shoulders pattern is $66.  I think GDX could overshoot that price, and touch $72 by January, 2013.

 

  • For years, the gold community has been hoping to see the gold stocks outperform bullion. It’s starting to happen, so please be very stingy with your sell orders!

 

GDXJ Double Bottom Playbook Chart

 

 

  • From the lows of this summer, junior gold stocks have outperformed all other sectors of the precious metals market.

 

  • The current consolidation follows a whopping 45% gain. As the bull trend resumes, outperformance again seems likely. Volume is picking up nicely, as GDXJ attempts to rise out of a descending triangle pattern.

 

  •  My price target for this move is $30.  If the Dow crashes, it could be acquired very quickly. The US central bank would likely announce emergency money printing measures to stop a meltdown of the banking system. That would benefit gold and related markets like the junior mining companies.

 

  • The fiscal cliff is a serious situation, and the only “solution” seems to be more money printing.  While the Dow gets pummeled, the junior gold stocks are displaying tremendous relative strength!

 

Natural Gas Correction Alert Chart

 

  • Natural gas is a long term winner, but my technical work is now projecting that downside targets of $3.10 and $2.85 are likely to be acquired by March 31, 2013.

 

Silver Cleared for Take-off Chart

  • Silver is an ideal metal to accumulate on price weakness.  The market is currently oversold.  Please note how perfectly the price has pulled back to the green downtrend line, after staging a magnificent breakout!

 

  • The Aroon indicator is very effective at identifying the start of a new trend. Note the superb location of this indicator now.

 

  • The RSI and CCI indicators are also flashing strong buy signals.  I expect the $44 price target will be acquired by January, 2013.  The “silver plane” appears to be cleared for take-off.  I hope you are on board!

 

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Comments

  1. Hooray! Somebody just identified a “WHEN” !!!!!!!!!

  2. lMAO hell I see Silver hitting $45-$50 by the end off the year. Lol

  3. Obama’s second term nothing will change. Instead of people getting an Obama phone they will get an Obama house. lol.
    His first term in office: Silver went from $10 to $49(high) 500%
    His second term in office: $49 to $250

  4. These charts were formulated before Slobama won his re-elelection.  Price deflation will rule the roost for awhile.  I’d expect $35 by the end of January.  We won’t see $44 for a long time.

    • Personally I believe it will go to the 40′s in the 1st quarter 2013 then drop by 40%. Then when the dust settles and high inflation causes terror among the Obama voters everyone will rush towards Gold first. Then Silver when Gold begins to get really expensive. James Turk said back I believe in 2000 that it will go to $400 or $500 by 2014, so for me $250 is a more conservative number.

    • What I personally believe is that there would be more bullish actions on the silver market since the US election has ended so the cartel will not be suppressing its price. I also believe that silver would at least go to 35$ but not higher than that for the moment.

  5. I hope you’re right StackerX.  However, we didn’t have Slobamacare in effect in his first term.  It’s going to suck more money out of the investment system than anyhting else in history.

  6. If this happens it could be a good trading point since a downward spike would be fairly easy to predict.  A rebuy in the $30′s would be indicated.  Volatility is going to be the name of the game once this starts.  The Fed is scared spitless of this sort of thing but the silver cartel is going to lose momentum.  There may be a reason for this in that Il Duce donesn’t need to be nice to these gangsters.  They have served their purpose, kissed the ring and now are nothing more than disposable collateral vote buying baggage.  I am guessing on that but BHO is a very isolated president who sees anyone and anything through the lens of political calculus.  Once they have served their purpose, whether they be people of color, bankers, uber wealthy internationalist or foreign forces, they are easily discarded.  Nukes, drones, a large military at his disposal assures blowback will be limited.  Silver manipulation will probably be so far down his favoritism list that Dimon, Blythe, HSBC and Citibank can be disposed of by the big buyers who will easily crater Comex and LBMA. He will be very busy on vacations, bringing in a new crew of lackeys, cronies and power mongers. I doubt if silver will interst him much unless he becomes and stacker. Soros likes stacking. Who know what BHO might want as payment for his Judas betrayal of this country

    • Well said. Silver will NEVER be subject to confiscation.  Its too difficult to get a handle on it.  Given our inept government, its a cinch it will never occur. How could they tell how many ounces you have?  Keep stacking!

    • “I am guessing on that but BHO is a very isolated president…”

      No need to guess, AG… extreme narcissists are ALWAYS isolated because no one is good enough to keep them company.  Humanity is divided into two primary categories… them and everyone else.  :-/ 

    • Well said AGXIIK, those that make deals with the Devil will still lose.

      As far as these people with Narcissistic personality disorder (NPD), they need to get together in group therapy and work it out, maybe use Tucker Max as the group leader.

  7. I was told by an active trader that silver is ready for its next leg up and that money is beginning to flow into the metal.  So should be interesting to find out if he’s correct over the next 30 to 60 days.

    • I can still find deals below spot at my local coin dealer, but the supply is definitely getting shorter. Premiums on ebay are now very high. The dealer said he can hardly keep enough stock in 90%. When I bought my last batch of halves it was all I could do to get a roll together that didn’t contain any slicks or holes. They are getting really proud of AE’s and silver dollars. Too expensive for me. Silver makes great Christmas presents by those that can still afford presents.

      Silver bells silver bells
      It’s Christmas time in the city
      Ring a ling hear them sing
      Soon it will be Christmas day.

    • I would not put too much trust on him because silver might go down or also stay stable at its current price during January 2013. My point is that there could be a lot of factors that might change suddenly the silver market especially because silver is very volatile.

  8. With all these different guesses where Silver is going to be at a certain time, wouldn’t it be great if we had a little contest here to see who is the closest at the end of the year 12/31/2012 to the spot price and each one of us put up an ounce of Silver each. Maybe 10-20 people, I’m game how about you?
    If your interested put your name on this post. The lucky winner could end up with 19 ounces of wealth to add to their stack. Lol     Just your name first (no amount) to see how many will particapate.

    Hope this ok Doc.
    I’m First,    

    Marchas45

  9. Euhm, could we hold off for a moment please, having held out this far? I am planning to double my stack in January, and this cannot be rushed. $44-50 in January is not good for my stack enhancement plans…

  10. The dollar is being held up artificially by derivitives and precious metals manipulation.  I expect the ramp to begin in the first week of December and by Jan. 5th we should easily be over $55.00 and then we hit the start of the parabolic moonshot most of us have expected to happen.  I disagree the TPTB can keep precious metals much lower, especially with the dollar hunting lower and the stock market selling off before an upcoming 20% correction followed by another 20% correction and then another 25% selloff to around S&P 450-500. 

    • If you draw a line on the silver’s chart from the 2008 lows to the 20112 recent lows, you will that silver never went lower than that line. Right now, silver won’t go lower than 29.50$ per ounce according to the line. The cartel is losing power to keep precious metals’ prices lower.

  11. @Never Weaken, you say obamacare is going to suck more money out of the investment system than anything else in history?

    Does anybody here realize how much money has been sucked out of the investment system by the present endless US wars in Afghanistan & Iraq?

    And speaking of war - today is the TRUE Veteran’s Day and we should pause to remember the veterans who served in America’s wars.  From WWII to the present ‘Oil-wars’ now underway, here is a tip of the hat to those who risked their lives in battle for their country (or so they thought).

    My father is a WWII veteran who served in the South Pacific. He, and millions of others, were slated to invade Japan, and what prevented this from happening – and many thousands of young American men from an early death – was the detonation of two atomic bombs.

    Folks can try to rewrite history and look at WWII from a different perspective more than 60 years after it happened, but fact is that using nuclear weapons ended WWII.  Period.

    (Disclaimer:  I am not saying using nukes is a good idea today, but in this case they were the best option America had.)

    • I agree that all Veterans should be respected and remembered.
      I read in many sources that Japan tried to surrender before the Atomic Bombs were unleashed upon Hiroshima, but were refused. It is sad to think such inhumanity is possible.
      I also read that at the time Stalin was not playing nice with the other Allied powers, so Truman dropped the bomb on Hiroshima to show off his new weapon and intimidate Stalin.
       
       

    • @StackerX, while I have never before heard Japan tried to surrender pre-Hiroshima and believe this is COMPLETE BULLSH!T, I have heard from Russians that the nukes were indeed intended to intimidate Stalin.

    • Makes me sad to think that my Father, who was a retired WWII and Korean Conflict Veteran, received three Purple Hearts defending this Country, and how the majority of it’s people have now thrown it back in his face. I am a Vietnam Era Vet and can say I am ashamed of what this Country has become. My Father died in 1982 on this day in a Veteran hospital and buried in a National Cemetery. The doctors just let him lie there in pain until the end. He just took it without complaint, as usual. Veterans are treated worse than dirt. The spineless people in this Country do not deserve liberty. He was not just a war hero, he was my hero, and glad he didn’t have to see what become of the Country he loved so much and defended to the end.

      While in the service I had the privilege to meet and shake hands with Gen Omar Bradley. Gen Bradley was a real General, unlike the ones we have now. Eisenhower was the last real President. Eisenhower was president when I was born. These are the men I choose to remember on this day. Their memory gives me the strength and hope that this Country may, one day, regain it’s greatness.

  12. Now, back on topic.  All those charts just give me a headache to look at and try to figure out, although they would probably make pretty wallpaper if you print them all.

    What I can wrap my head around is this:  Yesterday for $420 (just a hair below the spot price for Silver), I bought a partially-filled coin book containing twenty-nine Walking Liberty Halves, plus another seven Franklin Halves.  I put these 90% Silver half dollars away, and when the spot price spikes higher I will run an ad on Craigslist and sell them to a willing buyer.

    While all the charts may or may not say when the timing of the next price spike will occur, THAT is what I understand.

  13. Mammoth  I am soooooo jealous.  Darn.  I hate NV for the premiums the LCS sharges.   l love NV for its liberal firearms laws.

    AC-MD  I would not have said it better.  The coming crunch will be epic.  I think silver may get dragged   temporarily  down to the PM-to-cash liquidation fear factor but it won’t last.  I estimate that we will get a good bit of warning since there are so many eyes on the street.  Then things will  get really interesting.

  14. Anyone out there want to put in a few bucks so we can take over the physical silver market? If we all chip in we could call it the ” hunt brothers revenge cartel”. Lol

    • I can help out, but only in January :-) I’ll have some funds free up, and German export quota will be reset so I can get to the cheapest outlet.
      By now, as developments in the global economy as sooo slooowww… I am coming back to an old plan: low-leverage derivative positions in silver. I lost a fortune taking the leverage too high. Getting in too late, trying to catch up. Was 400% up in under 2 months at some stage, and then the margin hikes came. And I didn’t believe the run was over. This time around, I could wait for an awesome margin hike crash, and then step in with a leverage of 2 or 3. Which diminishes as I am correct, and increases as I am wrong. A run from $35 to $50 is already very nice with a leverage of 2 and change. I just need to be out before paper goes out of style.

    • The choir is already tapped out. Need to convert some new believers.

    • Haha! When that happens, it would be the karma for the cartel! :) Talk about the Hunt Brothers, I wonder what happened to them after their BIG loss. It’s like if they totally vanished from this world. Also, I wonder if the Hunt Brothers still stack some physical silver even after their loss.

  15. Heard this claim before many, many, many and once more many times, all with the usual set of charts and arguments. Then the BIG BOYS come to play the game with their billion dollar a day bankroll and guess what happens to silver. 
    I will believe it when i see it. Until then no worries, when it happens it happens. My guess is it happens with the zombie apocalypse 

  16. “I just need to be out before paper goes out of style.”

    Indeed so.  When the music stops, you’d better have a chair really close by.  ;-)

    I just put some money into the SGOL gold ETF.  Looks good as a paper investment but it is definitely a buy-n-flip investment and not something that I want to hold for any SHTF time that is coming.  After cashing it out, I will buy more physical silver.  Time frame is 4-6 weeks.  :-)

     

  17. So true Ed  Crazy is as crazy does  been too close to those me me me narcissists.  Too crazy and toooo dangerous.  and now we got one in the WH. 

  18. I say Sideways. Why? You know I am a small stacker (75 ounces) and a mechanic not a “financial expert” {oxymoron}. But here is as I see it: QE + ETFs + manipulation is all that is needed to regulate the market vis-a-vis the USD. Silver is Money. All fiat is in relationship to Gold/Silver so must be manipulated as a last line defence…since there is no viable bond backing nor industrial base/consumer flow. Sideways. This will not change until the B.R.I.C.S.+ Group (+ meaning the 140 non-aligned nations) takes the plunge into Alternate Reserve Currency land. This will happen when B.R.I.C.S.+ can feed itself from Africa or elsewhere and can live without the U.S.A. They are itching to do it and have the Gold/industry/shipping/ and probably a SWIFT style system going on line. With Sprott and other big boys in there with these countries buying out the COMEX the sparks will fly. Then I see a parabolic rise against the USD and other fiat but not a significant rise against B.R.I.C.S. backed currency. The Fed U.S.D. will be devalued and a new treasury note may be tried but I sincerely doubt it will gain street cred. Got 6 1989 Pandas. It’s a start.

  19. @AGXIIK @5:37 p.m. – Yesterday’s purchase of those thirty-six 90% Silver Halves was from a private seller who had advertised on the local Craigslist, not from the LCS.  Yes I brought a magnet & magnifying glass to ‘check the merchandise,’ and yes we met in a public location for safety.

    And just to doubly make sure things were safe – I brought along my six-year-old bodyguard, who is now old enough to begin taking an interest in coins.  It will be fun to fill in those empty slots in that Walking Liberty coin-book…

  20. We don’t have silver bargains in NV but we do have some nice deals on ‘black metal’   Private parties only, NV DL needed but
    no ?s asked.  I got two  yesterday without asking da guv’ or mr brady. 

    • Lots of the Blue Metal in Idaho. Interestingly enough Idaho Legislature worded Law to supercede any Federal mandates on this issue. I guess Republicans aren’t so bad after all. I myself don’t believe in them but Rights should (hopefully) be protected at the State level. Especially in a State that has Rattlesnakes.

    • @Idaho Silver, that’s not fair, you get to play with your stash but mine is burried away. LMAO
      That’s what I like a “Silver Candle Stick Lighting The Way”.

  21. Fun Stack

  22. @Crissy @8:31 a.m.:  “Silver makes great Christmas presents by those that can still afford presents.
    -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -   –   –   –   –   -   -  -
    Was thinking about this one while walking through the parking lot into the building where I work.  Last Christmas I gave my brother-in-law a nice 1946 Walking Liberty Half (the year he was born); he thought it was the coolest thing!

    Earlier this year I found – in a handful of old silver coins I’d bought from a private seller – an 1854 Seated Liberty half – with a hole in it.  So I bought a Silver chain & clasp to hold it, and will give this coin to my sister for Christmas this year.  This coin was minted 100 years before she was born!

    But if giving the Gift of Silver for Christmas to your loved ones isn’t your thing, there are plenty of made-in-china, mass-produced, toxic pieces of Crap you can give them instead.    

  23. Again with the 44$ predictions! How do we know that it will hit 45$ on January 2013? He should’ve said that silver would go higher instead of putting a specific price which has a lot of chances to fail. We just have to wait and see for the real results.

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