SD Weekly Metals & Markets 3/23: Cyprus is Lehman & MFG- Financial System on the Edge!

Youtube SD WeeklyEric Dubin & The Doc break down the trading action in gold and silver and preview next week’s options expiration in the metals.

We discuss the implications of the Cyprus bail-in, whether bank runs are imminent in Greece, Italy, & Spain, and the likelihood that a full-blown contagion has been triggered due to the loss of confidence in the banking system.  

SD Weekly Metals & Markets is below:


2013 Silver Eagles IN STOCK As Low As $2.59 Over Spot at SDBullion!

 

      1. Gold & silver price Re-cap:
        Silver closed at $28.76- basically unchanged for the week
        Gold closed at $1609, up roughly $25 for the week

        1. Signs of probable SILVER short covering w/ Thursday morning pop higher on Comex open;  GOLD was moving higher earlier in the week on fear of banking sector contagion

        2. Friday trading:  Can’t have strong trading and testing of GOLD’s upside resistance at $1620 and $29.50+ SILVER going into the weekend and with Cypress still unresolved;  GOLD hit before COMEX open;  SILVER hit on COMEX open – probably new shorts.

        3. SILVER has three tests of $29.50 in the last two months, each failing a few pennies lower each time;  meanwhile, the bottoms are rising a few pennies higher each time.  Range tightening.  Normally, given fundamentals, one would expect upside breakout but….

        1. SILVER Options Exp. Next Week:  Heads-up, short-term!

silver

      1. Cyprus
        -Banks closed through at least Tuesday
        -ECB enacts capital controls, will keep Cypriots savings accounts frozen even when banks re-open, and reduce ATM withdrawals
        -Cyprus as Lehman Brothers & MFGlobal rolled into one
        - Spain, Portugal — bank runs next week?..

      1. Jim Sinclair Meeting
        -Cyprus a major misstep for the IMF/ECB
        -Western Central banks testing policy shift from quantitative easing to bail-in wealth taxation.
        -Spain has reportedly just changed constitutional rules to allow depositor haircuts
        -New Zealand is attempting to pass legislation that depositors would see haircuts in all future bank failures
        -2 years to withdraw funds from IRA/401k
        -silver to pass $100, will not reach $500, will have an orgasmic like rally and subsequent crash;  SILVER not monetary metal per Sinclair and on this score, he’s wrong and silver will not likely crash – just huge volatility.

      1. FMOC meeting:  Same old MOPE story

        1. note 4 year pattern of stronger econ in 1st half
          -Uncle Ben:  “green shoots” mid 2009
          -Uncle Ben:  “we have exit strategy” WSJ editorial, summer 2010
          -same pattern this year – strong in first half
          -QE programs primarily launched Fall/Winter
          -2013 Economic slowdown later in year
          -Exit strategy:  nothing but jawboning given Fed purchase of over 50% of Treasuries

Comments

  1. If anyone here can tell me what all of the above means. I will appreciate.
     
    Ranger

    • It means keep stacking of course..lol.. but you knew that. Peace Tiger

    • Hi Ranger :)
      The effects of insane monetary policies are catching up with countries, step by step, with Cyprus at this time being a failed test bed for mass looting of the public. Matters *could* transition into bank runs, loss of confidence, etc., and spread to other banks that are over exposed to the game. It may heat up, or it may all pass by just like the LIBOR scandal that many thought would bring down the house, which so far that has been all but forgotten, while the only thing I am aware of is banks have paid fines, but still continue their fraud. We are reaching the point where it will not take too much more pressure to cause contagion, but in my opinion, this too will pass for now, but it will not go away nor will the effects of such a bold move of stealing from accounts. I would suspect a lot of people are waiting to get their money OUT of these banks, if they are allowed to of course. it is a rather ugly situation, but likely Cyprus will be propped up for now just as everything else gets papered over which does nothing but push the resulting fruit of their actions down the road a little further.
      Just my take. Have a good day! :)
      Thank you DOC for the info.
      Jim

    • Nothing!

    • Ranger,
       
      Excellent question. The level of bullshit on these silver blogs is amazing given the narrow trading range metals are currently in. But everyday the Doc cries wolf to the point where people stop listening. Right now, until further notice, silver is going down a little, up a little, and sideways a little…

    • I saw a vlog the other day showing that the silver price volatility of the past month and a bit has been the lowest in like 9 years. In other words, we are totally flat bottoming, or at least plateauing. Nothing going  on in the price. Yes as last summer, we are seeing high volume being showing laft and right, long and short. And it doesn’t even look like day trading to me, just a few players that have decided to swap many longs for shorts and vice versa. Some days they trade harder than the other, but the price barely moves either way. What’s more : looking at the EUR silver price usually overlaid with the USD price, I get the impression EURUSD volatility is actually getting the better of silver.

  2. YES DOC. It is a snowbal rolling.

  3. Maybe before any dollar is spent by any governement. A public debate on weather that dollar should have been created or not.

  4. I should make one point more clear.  When it comes to Cyprus and the risk of a crash growing out of the situation, I don’t believe the derivatives market risk associated with Cyprus banking is anywhere near as interwoven with counter-parties as was the case with Lehman Brothers.  Lehman Brothers was easily one of the top three “primary dealers” in the US bond market and up to it’s eyeballs in facilitating the investment banking industry development of financial engineering, with the creation of derivatives and structured products.  Cypriot banks certainly made bad investments.  They have exposure to the overall global counter-party risk fiesta plaguing the Western financial system, especially when it comes to owning Greek debt.  But they are not as interlinked as was the case with Lehman Brothers.  This is not likely to cause a chain reaction and market crash based on the direct inter-linkages between Cypriot banks and counter-parties.  
     
    However, bank runs that grow out of a growing distrust of financial intuitions by the general public could prove to be an entirely different story.  Cyprus could bring the financial system down.  It would come following bank runs by average people, especially in countries like Spain.  At this point, I believe Europe will escape that catastrophe only by implementation of even more draconian capital controls.  A system-wide crash will not likely develop directly in response to Cyprus banks — but the situation is highly unstable and reveals the rot in the global banking system. Confidence in financial institutions will continue to erode.

    • “This is not likely to cause a chain reaction and market crash based on the direct inter-linkages between Cypriot banks and counter-parties.”
       
      I was all set to reply with the info in your final paragraph, FW.  I agree that the banking mechanicals are not there for a direct derivatives crash due to Cyprus but the psychology for a continuing banking crisis certainly is.  Italy, Spain, and Portugal are ripe for bank runs, IMO.  I agree that capital controls will become Draconian because there really is no other choice.  Banks in those countries WILL be drained of capital IF bank runs are allowed to occur.  This would collapse quite a few of those banks and would make getting them reliquified a challenging task.
       
      Fractional reserve banking… something that works until it does not… and when it does not, it gets real ugly real fast.

  5. Very good and knowledgable guest Doc. Keep it up. Bring in new minds!

  6. One simple mans thought. For every person that thinks gold is money, fifty or more think silver is money!

    • This sounds like the “50 million Frenchmen can’t be wrong” argument.  lol
       
      Of course, anyone who converts their fiat into PMs is well aware that BOTH are money and they would probably buy both if their funds allowed them to do so. 

  7. What was that??? The trend is your friend!

  8. I think silver is going to make a good run.  Take some profits if it hits the high 40′s and convert the silver to gold.  Just sayin.
    If it continues higher than that, methodically convert silver to gold a little at a time.  Silver will remain volatile. 
    Of course, I am usually wrong so you should probably hang on to all your silver.  But, I plan to follow this plan anyway.  
    My goal is to preserve savings with the knowledge that metals are not a get rich scheme at all.  And, silver can bite ya in the butte if we are not careful. 
     

    • I also would convert silver into gold but not because silver is at any particular price.  I want to see a G / S ratio of 30:1 or so before I start  converting.  No luck there so far, though.

  9. @ 40 on some of my “overstock” I might take a profit, but not to gold but rather to energy! AND ONLY BECAUSE TPTB ARE PUSHING ME OUT OF MY POSITION. THEY HAVE LEVERAGE. I’ll do the best I can in the shifting sands of crimminal behavior.

  10. Great interview gentlemen.
    I call this interview THE BIG TELL
    If you play Texas Hold’em, you know what big stack, small stack, tells, reading the cards and going ‘all in’ means.
    We, the people, are in the BIG GAME.  This is the one where you get to play for the entire stack, or nothing, depending on your skills. It’s a winner-takes-all game. But now we know the game is rigged. What do you do?
    There are millions of players at the table. The big stacks belong to the ECB, IMF, US Fed and some extremely wealthy people, central banks and countries.   The small stackers are us, the little guys and gals who found themselves sitting at a table that was once reserved for a polite game of Monopoly or Yahtzee.  A penny a point, a quarter a game; small stakes in our lives and nothing that would make or break us.
    Suddenly we find ourselves pulled into something so large that even the big stackers are having trouble managing it, unable to calculate the odds and even ending up with rotten cards that could destroy a stack, and a player, that took years to build.  If you’ve watch the World Series of Poker you’ll see the best players lose to amateurs.  That’s one of the enjoyable aspects of the game.  The least likely player can pull a Moneymaker playing style and get a huge payday. A hack golf can’t play with the majors but anyone with $10,000 can buy in the WSOP. But watching is NOT NOT NOT the same as playing in the big game. Yet here we are, whether entering willingly or dragged kicking and screaming to the game, we are being dealt the cards and expected to play with the big boys.  But in this game the dealers are crooks and the cards are marked. While the cards are against the smalls we can still win, but not with conventional strategies.
    Most of us see clearly that this FIAT game always ends badly.  We have  great historical reference points.  All unbacked currencies fail every time.  Like FIAT, card games have winners and losers.  The best you can hope for is that you break even or, if you lose a bit, it was fun and entertaining, or so goes that ad for Harrah’s  But losing is still losing and the odds that you will lose big increase the longer you play. 
    You know the toke and rake will absorb a goodly part of your stack so you can’t just sit and wait.  That alone will drain your bank account or stack.  If you gamble big and win, the odds will always work against you in time. Even the best players have losing streaks that bankrupt them.  It’s like watching high performance skiers on Warren Miller’s ‘best of’ drop of cliffs. Looks easy?  Sure. But no one talks about the months of rehab after accidents
    So here we are, at the edge of a cliff watching the people of Cyprus slipping over the edge.  They went all in.  Their bosses, the Russians, as not happy about this. They are like Teddy KGB, the high stakes gambler on the movie, The Rounders. He ate people who lost.  The Cypriots are squeezed between Teddy and his version of high stakes poker and the vig from Granma, the shylock who owned Matt Damon for the $15,000 contract on his head.  Not a goot place to be, tovarish, all things considered.
    The evil Troika banks  and their ghouls, Bernanke, LeGard, Draghi and Merkel the Merciless are dead set on making an example of Cyprus. This is not about the debts owed or the bankrupt banks. It’s about control, controlling the table,  going ‘all in’ with a policy of scorched earth and making an example of Cyprus so the PIIGS get the message that they are next.
      This ‘all in’ message was a warning shot across the bows of the middle stacked players like Spain and Italy.  You are next!  We plan to take your stack, your deposits, your pensions, even your livelihoods and lives, and send you to the rail.  Get ready. All the politicians and legislatures of Spain and Italy scrambled and willingly complied, writing laws last week that included provisions for the imfamous ‘deposit tax’ in those rules.  Spain tried to hide this tax by making it 0%.  Just add a 1 to the front and it’s a 10% haircut.  Sir Marks Alot is at the ready.  Spain’s banks are on lock down so confiscations are easily accomplished. Italy is finalizing their deposit tax as well.
      Message received Mein Fuhrer. We hear and obey. 
    These two countries are trying to front run the consequences of the IMFs actions by acquiescing to the troika, setting their citizens up for a loss. Obeisance to supra corporate fascists banksters is a losing game.  The bank runs there will be epic.
    What galls me is that these ghouls DO NOT THINK FOR A MOMENT about the social and societal costs of their actions. Their only concern is saving the Euro and the banksters. They take down one player then dance around the table like Phil Hellmuth or Mike Matasow when they ‘felt’ a small player.  Bad manners is all I can say.
    But as we Silver Doctor Irregulars read about these going’s on and the message from Doc and Eric, the message is clear.
    These big stack players are finding out that they are also subject to the laws of human nature and the odds of the game. Amateurs can act in totally unpredictable ways, changing the entire game in small and large ways. In their glee of winning a few hands they start acting like amateurs. They are now exposing their strategy with the BIG TELL.
    There is no way to win against them if you stay at the table. We’re amatuers, the little guys and gals.   Win or lose, the Big 3 will take us down if we stay in their game.   If they don’t do it by their play they will do it by changing the rules or simply by through the barrel of a gun. We see this for what it is. They are telegraphing their intentions in a world shaking way.
    I’ve seen really good players ‘on tilt’ and they are on tilt. They’re steaming.
    Yes, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot and Hitler were bloodthirsty ruthless megalomanical murdering despots. They and their minions caused the deaths of hundreds of millions of people.  So what separates the ruthless tyrants of the uber banks?  How do they kill us?  They do that by debt and despoilation of our lives, demanding we embeggar ourselves at the feet of these tyrants as they demand Austerity.  To my ears Austerity is code for “DIE” and be quick about it. We, the banksters of the world are on a mission.  World wide domination. We will do it by any means at our disposal and humanity is disposable.
    This is the BIG TELL. We see it  with all its radiant stench and wretchedness, laid on the people of Cyprus   It does not matter the whys and hows; the reasons the people of Cyprus find themselves in this jam. It’s the way they are being treated and the end results of the destruction planned for them and their country. The way I see it they want us enslaved or dead.
    This Big Tell is also a clarion call, and if you’ve tolerated my long essay, then you’ll see that clarion  call is pretty simple.
    GET THE HELL OUT OF THE GAME.
    Take your stack, push away from the table, cash in the chips, tuck them away,  bid adeiu to the players, wish them good luck as they will need it and exit as fast as your feet can carry you out of the casino and  down the road. It does not matter if you are ahead of the game, breaking even, or losing a bit, the big stacker players are coming for us, every one of us and the best thing we can do is get out.
    They made the most serious mistake a player can make. They told us how they play the game.  It’s a ‘no win’ if you stay.  The only way to win is leave.  I’ve been there, done that and lived to tell the story. And I am an amateur to that game but have more than a few scars from the experience

    • So you are recommending we do what?  Sell our gold and silver and get paper?  Or just what are you recommending?

    • AGX said take your stack and refuse to play. Sit on it and don’t sell. Use their fiat to buy cheap and stack.
       
      Gun control, more and more additives to food not on the labels, GMO that causes cancer… they are trying to kill off the population in multiple ways but I refuse to play their game. I filter my water, grow a lot of my own non gmo food, buy drug free meat locally, often via barter for some of my skills. Stay out of the system as much as possible, stack water, food, weapons, lead, PM’s for what is coming.

    • The only way to win is to not play the game.

    • “They do that by debt and despoilation of our lives, demanding we embeggar ourselves at the feet of these tyrants as they demand Austerity.  To my ears Austerity is code for “DIE” and be quick about it.”
       
      Interesting rant, AG, and I agree for the most part.  But to my ears, austerity is nothing more than living within one’s income.  The Western nations and Japan have failed to do that and so a day of reckoning is coming.  Much of the trouble in Cyprus and the PIIGS countries are self-inflicted wounds… caused not by the citizens but by their banksters and politicians, none of whom will suffer under austerity.  But, the simple fact is, all societies MUST spend less than they take in, not more.  Consuming more than we produce leads to a dead-end and complete financial destruction.  I can’t spend more than I have, most people can’t either, and neither can governments.  The nanny state has a serious problem and it is now flailing around trying to find additional funds to blow on their socialist programs.  Their problem is that there just isn’t any more.  As this at long last becomes obvious, even to them, all manner of desperate actions will occur and many of us small fry will be hurt by these actions.  So, yes, taking our chips and leaving a crooked game IS all we can do to preserve what we have.  The unfortunate part of all this is that the b@st@rds in charge are both creative and relentless.  They can and will react to us leaving the game, so consider that as a temporary reprieve from their predations.  At best, it will buy us some time but we need to be ready with additional plans for what they do next.
       

  11. My mind doesn’t calculate where Gold and Silver is going with the Cyprus mess.
    I emailed Doc yesterday and told him that my bank wanted to know why I was taking
    a lot of my money out. (Personally I wanted to slap shit out of the Teller for asking),
    but I told her I was paying for renovation to my daughter’s house. Still have more to take
    out to feel safe. Anyone else been asked

    • I am sorry that you have to deal with that.  Where I live, it is a cash and carry culture.  No biggy to go in and withdrawal large sums.  No questions asked.  I am old school so it is difficult for me to adjust to this type of fascism.  Yesterday I was able to make a gold purchase using cash, no ID presented and no reciepts drawn up.  In a very secure and professional environment.  Took me quite some time to locate the right place to do business.  Banks suck.  Keep stackn.

    • I had an interesting exchange at a bank that I have never had issues with in the past.  A fairly small withdraw prompted the teller to call over a manger to speak with me about a small line of credit.  Why would I need a line of credit if I had the cash?  Seems they want that money staying in accounts at all means.  I read a few years ago that banks were asked to clear space and send excess cash and coins in to the central regional reserve.  Nothing ever came of that which I assume was for the new $100 bills that were supposed to come out.  Now I hear more and more about people saying there banks dont have more than a 10,000 cash on hand.  Maybe it is fear of being robbed but that revaluation and new bucks may be coming soon.

    • The banks now a days are reporting to the Feds even small cash withdrawals of less than 10 g’s.  They do that supposedly on a discretionary basis.  Once I get all my cash out of the system I don’t plan on returning it until interest rates are where they need to be.  Which is over 5%.  I can’t justify keeping a single nickel in the bank at half a percent interest with all the risks we must take and the lack of interest being paid.  It is no less than robbery.  No less a travesty than what is going on in Cyprus.  I finally came up with that conclusion.  Cash and carry is the only way to go for the next few years.  

    • @Ranger:  You should have asked very politely to speak to the manager.  When he/she arrived, explain what the teller asked you, and that you will make a report to the home office.  You will be demanding that both the teller and manager be fired–not reassigned–fired!  If they won’t do it, tell them you are on your way to the closest TV station….then do it!  That bank will have a line down the street and around the corner the next business day!

    • I pulled out $500 last week, teller asked and I gave her a blank stare and told her it is my money that is why.

    • $500 from a teller? My bank’s ATM limit is €1000. It used to be €1500 I think.

      I recently took several thousands out on 2 occasions, and they never asked a word, even when I totalled the account (both times). Perhaps they are extra cautious with regards to customer service. They’ve had systems outages quite a bit. And hear this, last time I was withdrawing (just because the ATM’s give that €1000 limit per day), the teller noticed I had an unnecessarily expensive combination service of debit and creditcard. The latest service was to save me costs. She handled it for me while the money was being taken from the back, or the time lock, or whatever that delay means.

    • Ranger… actually, it really is not any of their business what you want to do with YOUR money.  This is why I like dealing with a local CU.  Although the amounts have been rather small, I have had no trouble taking $5-8k out at a time with no questions asked other than what denominations of currency I wanted.  This is as it should be, IMHO, but all too often is not.

  12. @jiggy and pollokeeper
    I believe some weird stuff in the U S banks is going on. For instance at my bank here, there is a skeleton crew.
    Less employees. The assistant manager that I have dealt with for years is no longer there. Only two tellers and
    a junior supervisor. When I made a 7500 withdrawal yesterday, the teller told me that she had to get her supervisors
    approval. I told the teller, does the supervisor need approval for the money I have put in the bank  for over 25
    years? Something is up my friends and it scares hell out of me! The Bank is Comerica
     

    • @Ranger I have noticed the change in personnel.  I used to open and close business accounts without a problem. 3 months ago it took me a couple hours to open one as the “manager” did not recognize the form I was using to open the account, it was a fairly common S-corp registration form.  Last week I went to close the account and htey said they could only transfer funds to another business account.  I wrote a check on the spot to “cash” to clear out the account,  when the ’manager’ noticed she said no need, they would transfer the funds to my personal account.  What changed?  the fact I was going to take cash out of their system. 
      I also purchased a few domains with the words sheeple and bank in them.  With in 1 month I was contacted and offered many times more than I had invested in the sites.  Now I see they all have private registration but payment came from a shell corporation in DE, a state known for banking company shells.  I am interested to see what type of new blogs they become.  I suspect many financial blogs are run to steer sheeple, hype or downplay stocks and PMs. 

    • “I told the teller, does the supervisor need approval for the money I have put in the bank  for over 25 years?”
       
      Lol, Ranger.  Yeah, I know what you mean.  My CU is good but sometimes even they get a little screwy.  I wanted to make a deposit of $26k that my folks had gifted to me one time and had to go through some rigmarole to do it.  I told the tellers that if anyone else comes in and wants to put money IN my account, that they should LET THEM!  It is the taking out part that needs to be more carefully run.  Ah, you gotta love it when places substitute rules for brains.  :-D
       

  13. Jiggy,
    My thought is simply this. If we cannot trust the FED why should we trust our Bank?
    Another issue was my American Express Merchant account. They shorted me about $40.00
    on a customer sale using their Amex Card. I called American Express and questioned the shortage.
    American Express explained that it was a new IRS ruling to with hold 28% of the sales charge.
    I called my credit card gateway provider and questioned whether MasterCard, Visa or Discover
    had the same policy. Their answer was NO! and they haven’t heard of any ruling.  I cancelled my
    American Express merchant account. The bastards are a bunch of thieves at the very least, charging
    $7.95 per month for usage and 3% off the top of all charges. I have since talked with other merchants
    that have also cancelled their merchant accounts. Wall Street reported a few weeks ago on how high
    AMEX earnings were, now I can damned sure see why!!!!!!
     

    • American Express is just another thief.  But don’t worry.  The sheeple still trust the banks.  Just old farts like me would lose their trust in banks.  My trust in anything gov.  Anything bank.  Anything that resembles fiat or the status quo.  Has been sorely tested.  And, do not even talk about trust in anything Obamalike.  Thats just a given.  I think my feelings about this will spread but the time is not here yet.

  14. Notice the Feb. and March recovery peaks on the silver chart above?  $29.44, followed by $29.35 and then $29.33.  That looks like cartel footprints — with a capping effort and an attempt to create a downward sloping resistance line and lower highs to spook hedge funds and other speculators.  Meanwhile, the lower channel shows signs of competition among bottom-fishing value buyers.  The channel is tightening and with options expiration next week, we should expect 70%+ odds the cartel will attempt to get silver to close with a low below $28.40.

    If they are successful, I believe it will only be a short lived victory.  Demand remains stronger than the cartel can control.

  15. I’m thinking that with a fractional reserve system, every dollar removed from a bank reduces their loan leverage 10 to 1.  So, Ranger, when you exited your bank with whatever you took, let’s say $20,000, the bank has $200,000 less to lend. It’s a little like buying 100 ounces of silver and removing 10,000 ounces of tradeable paper silver. While we know that buying silver has yet to stop paper trading the cumulative effect will be telling soon enough.
    When you take a large amount in cash it does nothing to help your cause by getting angry.  The tellers and managers are on very strict orders to report anything out of the ordinary.  There is a system that is useful and it’s called ‘Know your Banker’. Basically its a means to accomplish your goals of FIAT extraction and conversion by getting to know your banker.  That way your actions are not laid on a teller or manager who becomes suspicious. 
    Remember the  now absolute rule   The first ones out get the best deal.  Chavez got his gold.  The Cypriots who got the high sign from the president of Cyprus removed billions days before the shut down.  As you remove your FIAT from the banks remove it steadily but slowly.  The government IS watching. And they know we, the people, will run not walk to our corner bank to close our accounts if this Euro zone bank scam continues to roll west and north through the PIIGS
    I am not going to be a fear monger here, just making some comments. Better to be a month early than 2 hours late. If your FIAT earns nothing in your account then there is not cost to having it buried in the ammo can, safe or mattress. Just STFU about that stack. It draws worse players than the bankers that formerly had their mitts on your accounts.

  16. silverrrr  that is a stroke of genius.  Call the news, call Fox, call youtube and get the word out that your bank is so tight with your money that you fear they are not going to make it. Don’t accuse them of going under but make it clear that your concerns about the Cyprus situation has you afraid that if you don’t get your money out the bank now won’t ever give it to you.
      Of course, get your money out before hand just in case.  With some many zombie banks out there, you may not know if they are really on the edge.
    Johnny Carson started a  run on toilet paper with a quip on the Tonight Show that there was a shortage.  Within a day or so the shelves were wiped out.  People were conditioning to shortages with the gas lines and inflation.  The shortage continued for two weeks. Ammo is the short commodity now.   Money could be the next thing to be in short supply. Let that theme run its course and see what shakes out.

    • Thank you!  My intent is to inform, educate, and get people to think.  Sometimes it works.

    • There might have been more to that TP shortage than Johnny Carson.  Back in those days, the chemical company where I worked received their basic feed-stock via ship, mostly from Asia.  Many of the sailors on those ships were Japanese and Koreans.  It was not unusual to see them walking along the road from town to the ship dock with a couple of 48-roll packs on TP on their shoulders.  I dunno why, maybe this was a hot item in Asia back in the 1980s and they could sell it for much more than they paid here?  Hard to say but hundreds of rolls left that small town every time a ship pulled out.  I can only wonder what it was like in the BIG ports in Calif, the gulf, and east coast ports.

  17. @Doc perhaps their was a misunderstanding in my original post.
    What Mr Sinclair’s original intent with his answer was that he didn’t believe their would be a Comex crash. If their was a Comex crash caused by a billionaire such as someone like Eric Sprott (who he doesnt believe he would do because he is a “gentlemen”) then the price of Silver would go artificially upward for a second( Which would be Orgasmic) then go Straight down. Which he doesn’t see. He believes the price of Silver will move more steadily upward. He believes the price could hit triple digits but it wouldn’t stay their very long. Not saying it would crash but that it would not be above triple digits for the long term. He also mentioned he doesn’t see it going as high as $500 but that was his opinion. I believe he doesn’t see Silver going that high because at the end of the day the powers that be will decide to exclude Silver as a monetary metal. Sinclair believes in Silver but he likes Gold more because it will maintain its future high price longer than Silver would because the guys in charge will most likely not include Silver in the monetary debate.
    Sinclair Quote:
    “He(Sprott)is a man of great knowledge I am sure the price he has in mind (for Silver) will in fact occur, but it will occur not in a manner creating a rise up followed by a fall down. If you break the exchange Silver would go to $100-500 but then go straight down to $30. You create a false price by breaking the exchange. ”
    ” The Comex was never intended for delivery”
    “What do you think would have happened if the Hunts took delivery? They probably would have wound up looking through bars. The system would come down on them very heavily. It is unethical to break …(the exchange)”
    “So to go in and say give me a billion dollars worth of silver next month. Its NOT happening. I know it will have to go up… It would be for a second but it would be orgasmic because then it would go straight down.” (crowd laughs)
    (Sinclair is referring to what would happen if the Comex was artificially crashed which he doesn’t believe will happen because no investor wants to go down in history as the person who broke the comex)

  18. @silverrrrr
    You might be right. The teller has been with the bank for several years. The manager (Frank) has been there for a long time as well. The funny part about Frank is the fact that he has not been at the bank the last two times I have been there.
    I ask where Frank is and they just tell me he’s out. Walter the assistant manager is no longer at the bank. I asked where he was and the teller told me he had retired. I asked the teller who was going to take Walters place and she semi avoided my question and told me that she didn’t know if there was a replacement. Silverrrr all I could think of after I left the bank that day last week was maybe the teller was asking me why, because possibly other depositors were doing the same.
    When I got back home, I told my wife what had transpired and she said that the bank has probably red flagged our account and I thought yeah with a lot of others. Like I said on an earlier post, “Lot of weird stuff going on at my bank”
    I don’t think that I am being paranoid. Just highly cautious about banks than I have ever been.
    Ranger
     
     

    • Ranger… If you ever listened to the stories of your parents and grandparents about the Great Depression, then you know some people who likely had very little trust in banks… and for good reason!  These same people also had little trust in paper money.  When they worked hard at a job they wanted REAL money, which was gold and silver, and not some flimsy paper junk.  Those old timers were a lot smarter than most of us ever gave them credit for being.  Oddly enough, many of us are becoming just like them!
       

  19. Time to show your face on some casino camera’s, various places. Buy a ticket to a casino city. Buy some chips, have a good night. Maybe even drive through the red light district more than you have to.

  20. Boris Berezovsky, a Russian Oligarch and Sharp Critic of Putin, has been found dead.
     
    Interesting timing – this occurs right when the Cypriot lawmakers are in the process of deciding just how much money to steal from wealthy depositors – many of them who are Russian.
     
    Probably just a coincidence, though…

    • Probably.  It would be a LOT more interesting if it was some EU bankster.  This could be nothing more than the settling of an old score and have nothing to do with Cyprus.

  21. http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2013/03/us-bank-depositors-set-up-for-the-slaughter-2601338.html 
    Please read this if you have any DOUBT about getting your hard-earned money out of the banksters grip before they take it!
     

    • It is unfortunate that so many judges these days do not know the meaning of PRIVATE PROPERTY.  Bone-head decisions like this need to be appealed all the way to the USSC.  Hopefully, they will stand up for private property rights.  The lower courts seem to have little interest in doing so.  :-(

    • Yea but you also have to remember that all currency are NOTES belonging to the Banksters and not ours. It’s A NOTE.

  22. Billp  Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner. I was cleaning guns again and doing some inventorying of silver for the gun show.
    What would I do in the future and what I do now are a bit different  My wife and I have been inundated by this Cyprus fiasco, mostly from my incessant talk about it.  She gets it and understands the stakes  We are even now fine tuning our plans.
    I own a business in the commercial mortgage brokering field.  Times are decent so I collect commission checks regularly.  My plan has been to keep gross income down to a level that once we do the books at the end of the year I show a net profit of maybe $50,000.  Our deductions in the business come off the income first and personal deductions are taken against the AGI (adjusted gross income)  After personal expensing of mortgage, taxes, insurance and miscellaneous, we end up with no Federal or state taxes (we live in Nevada).  We end up paying the SS and Medical taxes at about 15%. This is particular to us but could be modified to a suit a person in business or someone working and even retirees.
    We put my wife on SS at 62 so that is a new taxable income but it’s better than waiting until 66 and it covers about 25% of personal overhead. 
    I used to keep a low 6 figure in my business account until about 3 years ago.  We could ramp that down since we reduced the business income by 90%, deciding when we moved to Nevada that we didn’t need or want to work 12-14 hours a day any more. We have bled the account down to a mid 4 figure.    We prepaid a lot of annual expenses in 2012.and furthered our silver purchases in the remaining months of 2012. We pay expenses immediately by check and prepay some expenses like property taxes, utilities and other misc costs 3-12 months in advance. This lowers my business checking account balance as well as preventing late payments if we have a bank holiday or some other Black Swan event. While we don’t use on-line banking, that system would allow someone wanting to run an even closer accounting and payment system to make immediate payments rather than waiting for checks to clear.
    About this time last year I finally figured how to do a Self Directed IRA. Once we completed the paperwork and shifted our two IRAs to phyzz we tucked those stacks away so that a lifetime of pension funding was not taken by the government.  Those confiscation plans are now way to close to home for my comfort. We were very happy this was accomplished without having to pay taxes or penalties.  We sit on that stack until the time is right to start drawing that down.  My future plans will give you an idea when that might happen. I pity the folks in Cyprus who could see their pensions taken for a bailout. Spain just did this as well as Argentina.
    My wife keeps a low 4 figure in her account. She prepays some expenses but her overall personal lifestyle costs are modest so the balance floats at $2-3,000. 
    About a year ago we completed the conversion of all our taxable  Fidelity accounts to silver and gold. This was done before Doc set up SD Bullion but he directed me to a good bullion dealer. That was a well priced purchase with an average cost of about $33-34 an ounce in silver.  Gold was low $1,600  We bought on the early 2012 dips in the prices of precious metals. Prices today make me envious but I don’t think about the difference of a couple of bucks an oz.
    Last year I sold my partnership interest in an old building in Canada.  It had many problems including black mold and unreinforced masonry. The renovation costs entailed a very large investment with a cash call from partners. No way I was going to send money to Canada. My partners were happy to buy my interest in this POS. I converted the proceeds to precious metals.   PM buy price was on a dip at $32-ish.
    We do buy some small amounts of silver when  account balances get close to $10,000.  That amount is a red line for us so anything that exceeds that is converted to another assets. I bought 300 oz of the Day of Resistance coins last month as inventory at the gun show.  Silver, ammo, food, guns and like items are our other usual outlays  The gun show will be telling in how we can convert over priced phyzz for overpriced guns and ammo or just some ready cash. I will report back on that once the show is done.
    We keep about $10,000 in cash for that ‘just in case’ bank holiday like we see in the Euro Zone  It’s nice to have it and if we need to add to the checking account it’s available to bridge the periods between commission checks.  I plan to add to that stack once we see how the Cyprus situation evolves. 
    My banker is in my Rotary club and manages a small town bank branch. He knows a bit about my strange ways so he’s cool when I do cash transactions. Know Your Banker pays off. I do Country Boy with bankers because you never know when you might have to call in a favor. I expect that he’d give me the high sign if something funky was coming down.
    The future is uncertain but if silver was to jump in price in a manner similar to 1980 when it shot up from $16 to $49 an ounce in 37 days, that 200% increase  could bring us to $90-120 an ounce from today’s price to an intermediate peak.  If that happened we would sell some silver to pay off  our mortgage, the largest of our personal costs.  This would be one last link to living our lives with a minimal counterparty risk. A 200% rise would be unsustainable in the short term so conversion of gold to silver would be prudent with a potential rebuy when prices dropped. I ownership of gold and silver is about the same as the GTSR of 50 to 1. 50 oz of silver; 1 oz gold. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. It just seemed like the right thing to do.
    The mortgage paydown would be accompanied by a cash, silver or gold paid-for purchase of some farmland out towards Fallon or beyond or maybe south of  Minden and Gardinerville. My BOB has an notion to get maybe 5-10 acres of good bottom land with high ground for observation and enfilade. A well or nearby stream and hopefully backed up to national forest or BLM would be vital. Septic leach fields and backups are a very important consideration so 10 acres might be a minimum depending on ground water.  Crops would take 3-5 acres with some space for rabbits, chickens, ducks, goats and other related animals would be a good start on the live-of-the-land style.  Some small mobile homes or converted CONEX boxes as living spaces, solar power, wind gen and sweet water would be a good start.
    My Sr Bob paid me for helping him with him train his CCW class with 2 dozen farm fresh eggs.  That was some much fun I joked with him that he needs to do that again. IN reality it meant more to me that any FIAT.
      I’m reading Rawles book, Patriots.  It’s like a prepper guide in a story format. His TEOTWAWKI book is extremely specific but would require tremendous outlay of time and money. We  are not going to work up to that until and unless PMs triple in value.  It may be a mistake to not go all in regarding the worst case scenario but I am a bit more confident than the most extreme of the preppers.
    Short of the land in the boonies, my Sr BOB has a home in a secure location with enough of the essentials to weather a storm of  1-3 years year.  We are part of the BOB and bring a large amount of stored food, ammo, precious metals and firearms to contribute to the team. I am an expert in nearly nothing that would be considered essential in a TEOTWAWKI situation but gold and silver will be in demand so I assigned myself as the resident silver bank.
    Leaving out the more extreme scenarios, the best thing a person can do is be prepared for an unexpected shutdown of services like we saw in Hurricane Sandy  Imagine what you would do and need if your home and neighborhood was hit by this storm.  This is a good a litmus test of preparedness as I can think of. It would give you a good foundation to handle and manage an unnatural bank run and shut down that could hit you in one day or less.
    The future is uncertain and I don’t think we will see an apocalypse like some write about.  There could be variations on a local or regional level so we do the smaller plans which are outlined in the above post and my Prepper guide on the ‘best of’ section to the right side of the page. If you cut and paste a copy of that Prepper guide it might also help a bit. Cheers and my best regards to you Bill
     

  23. MaryB said it best. 
    ditto for Silverrrr and his link.
    Set’em up, buttercup

    • Have you considered getting a ham license and covering the communications end of the deal? I am the only ham in town plus I have 1600 watts of solar for power so I will be communications for the town if things go bad. And passing a message is something that can be sold or bartered if needed.
       
      Add in I can repair electronics, do plumbing and carpentry, garden and teach food preservation. I am not a master of any but all useful skills. Self sufficiency is the required skill set not being a master of just one.

  24. Another letter from Cyprus :A friend from Minneapolis has a son who is in Cyprus now. Here is an email that he wrote home, describing the chaotic situation there:Hey fam!Things are getting pretty crazy over here in Cyprus. I don’t know if you guys have been watching the news or seen things online, but Cyprus is on the verge of economic collapse. 
    Over the past 5 years the Cyprus stock market has lost 98% of its value and the country has recently entered into a severe economic crisis, considered worse than Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc.. As of last week the two largest banks in the country have completely shut down and froze all wire transfers out of the banks. Walking outside every day this week I have seen massive lines of people at the ATMs trying to withdrawal the maximum amounts. Today there was a man who was trying to get money out and when he realized it was out of cash he shook the machine violently and punched the display while cursing in Greek. If these banks go under (and this may happen) ALL money and all deposits will be lost, which will completely destroy the economy and way of living here. 

    Last week the European Central Bank offered a multi-billion Euro bailout package to Cyprus in exchange for a massive tax on all civilian bank accounts in the country. If this goes through (and I hope to God it does NOT) It will also devastate the economy and cause a giant run on the bank. Cyprus has also looked to Russia for help because Russians hold tens of billions of euros of investments in Cyprus (and the majority of bank deposits), however, Russia declined. 

    As it stands now, nowhere in Cyprus accepts credit or debit cards anymore for fear of not being paid, it is CASH ONLY. Businesses have stopped functioning because they cannot pay employees OR pay for the stock they receive because the banks are closed. If the banks remain closed, the economy will be destroyed and STOP COMPLETELY. Looting, robberies and theft are already on the rise. If the banks open now, there will be a massive run on the bank, and the banks will FAIL loosing all of its deposits, also causing an economic crash. TONIGHT there are demonstrations at most street corners and especially at the parliament building (just 2 miles from me). 

    Many are thinking that the ECB and EU are allowing Cyprus to fail as a test ground for new financial standards. 

    Just wanted all you guys to know the real story of whats going on here. Prayers are appreciated (although this is very interesting to watch) many of my local friends have lots of money in the banks.

  25. Mary B We live in a radio desert, high mountains and no antennas allowed by the HOA. My BOB has comms handled and we have walkie talkies with 5 mi range.  High ground is about 10 miles up the mountain.
    The Cypriots are experiencing what Jeff Berwick at Dolar Vigilante calls the End of the Monetary World as We Know It.
    When hours count banks only days away. 
    The Cypriots could use some prayers this day.

  26. NICOSIA – A web site on Friday claims to have seen an urgent bulletin from the Russian Foreign Ministry sent to its embassies all over the world advising both Russian citizens and companies to begin divesting their assets from Western banking and financial institutions “immediately”.
    The site said the Kremlin feared grow that both the European Union and United States were preparing for the largest theft of private wealth in modern history.
    According to this “urgent bulletin,” this warning is being made at the behest of Prime Minister Medvedev who earlier today warned against the Western banking systems actions against EU Member Cyprus.
    “All possible mistakes that could be made have been made by them, the measure that was proposed is of a confiscation nature, and unprecedented in its character. I can’t compare it with anything but … decisions made by Soviet authorities … when they didn’t think much about the savings of their population. But we are living in the 21st century, under market economic conditions. Everybody has been insisting that ownership rights should be respected.,” he said on Thursday.

    http://tinyurl.com/cx5kokm

     

    • You know it’s bad, when the Russian head honcho calls it Soviet practices, in a demeaning manner.

      Said for those Russian citizens, of whom some may not have been mobsters, who didn’t get the news quite as soon. the embassy may not have an email- and text message list ready for this emergencies. But they should.

      By the way, I read that billions (really?) were transferred before the banks closed. How is that even possible? Do these banks have no kill switch then the outflow get’s “too” risky fast? Or are they working on such sick levels of fractional reserve banking that they didn’t bother to set it to a given ratio? If these billions were indeed extracted, can the proposed measured even remain adequate? Would these not need to be 10- or 20-fold the last-minute transfers on top of the published numbers?

    • If true, that is, indeed, some scary s**t.  <:-O

  27. google Sorcha Faal/David Booth.  Possible hoaxster/disinfo.   That said, if there is a Russia-wide run,  the Rooskies know the score.
    The First one out get the best deal.
    The Chinese will be next. 
    Between these two countries they have trillions in reserve currencyies.  China has over $3 trillion, about $1.3 USD  If this  TWX  is true next week will be a page out of a history book. 
    Cyp prex alleged to have rung up Russian friends about the IMF action. Get your money out of Dodge he said. that makes friends in high places and extends one’s life span a tad

  28. President Vladimir Putin has discussed the financial crisis in Cyprus with members of his National Security Council

    http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_03_23/Putin-aides-discuss-Cyprus/

    •  Hmmm Jinping meeting with the big dogs in Moscow. I bet it wasn’t about Dim Sum production in Gwongzhou. 
      More like.  Dim Sum problems you got there is Cyprus, Vlad. Wahchoo gonna do?

  29. If runs get going my opinion is that the UST and US Fed will go after the low hanging fruit and with an NDRP action, picking the pension peaches.  Patriotically speaking, the US government gave us all those nice tax deferred benefits in our pension plans. Now it’s tme to repay the favor.  Turn over the plans to us. 
    If you have a plan that can be convered to cash or something that resembles a safe haven, you have 60 days to replace it. I did that last year and took out low 6 figure to buy phyzzz at a good price. I had to wait about 50 days to close escrow on the Canadian property.  Once the funds were transferred to the US, I replaced them with over a week to spare. 
    If you sniff out a credible threat to your pension plan and have that 60 day safe harbor it might be prudent to move it if pension extractions are forthcoming.  If there is a sudden shutdown or holiday for removal of pensions after a certain date you could be shut out or prevented from moving your plan.  If worst comes to worst you cash it out and take the hit.  This is not investment advice but just a suggestion or two.  I kept back part of my pension funds after replenishing them bulk and am taking the tax hit in 2012   It is not too bad and I accepted that cost.  I’m over the 59 and a half years old so there were no penalties

    • “Patriotically speaking, the US government gave us all those nice tax deferred benefits in our pension plans. Now it’s tme to repay the favor.”
       
      Actually, AG, they have been getting paid rather handsomely for that for some time now.  This happens because ALL withdrawals from tax-sheltered accounts are taxed as income and not as cap gains, which the bulk of them are.  I exclude Form 8606 and Roth money from this, as the tax on them is paid up-front.
       
      As to the 60-day roll-over, yeah that can work.  Just be advised that the IRS only allows ONE such rollover per 12-month time period (NOT per YEAR!).  They do not allow us to do one of these in Dec and a 2nd one in Jan, for example.  If we do one in Dec, we cannot do another until the following Dec.  Watch the DAY because it matters too.  Doing this even 1 day before 365 days has passed will invalidate the withdrawal / rollover.
       

  30. This little PIIGY went to Market
    This PIGGY went Home
    This little PIGGY went wee, wee wee, I got Draghi’s balls in one hand, my other hand’s on a deadman’s switch.  If I let go and Cyrus defaults, I wipe out the entire equity capital of the ECB.  Some PIGGIES are more equal than others   Got pork?

  31. I believe that bank runs will start to happen in every country around the world because these savings accounts’ haircuts have already affected everyone around the world. For example, New Zealand has also considered doing this method to help their banksters!

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