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On this week’s Metals & Markets The Doc & Eric Dubin discuss:

  • A break from the traditional Friday cartel bashing as gold and silver blasted higher through $1400 $24, and closed at $1398 and $24.08 respectively!
  • Triggering Friday’s precious metals rally, a weaker than expected July home sales report, coming in at 394k vs consensus of 486k, and a 13.4% decline over June- the steepest monthly drop in 3 years!
  • Silver options expiration Aug. 27:  Expect cartel to desperately attempt to defend $25.50 and then, $26.  Look for a pause and short correction in silver prior to a massive assault on $30!
  • The Doc’s report on physical market trends for the US bullion market
  • War:  When all else fails, it’s the “go to” solutionWhy would President Assad gas his own people when he knows the US has declared the use of chemical weapons as a “red line” that if crossed would likely mean escalation/intervention?   Russia may very well be correct in accusing the US backed rebels as being behind a false flag. 

 We dive in to these topics and much more in this week’s SD Weekly Metals & Markets!

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SD Weekly Metals & Markets Editorial & Analysis

By Eric Dubin

 

We don’t often slog through FOMC minutes because, quite frankly, there are usually far better things to share with you.  But this time is different.  The Fed forced itself into an inflection point period with all this tapering talk.  We’ll get to that in a minute.

 

Try as they might, the powers that be failed to damage the ongoing development of this precious metals bull market.  During the three days leading up to the release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes, we saw sizable attacks on gold and especially silver during thinly traded overnight sessions.

 

Some in “our camp” have become so used to cartel flogging that a sense of dread and expectations for a bigger smash fell upon many in the stacker community as the cartel executed these nightly drive-by shootings .  But the importance of the fast rebounds after each capping attempt cannot be over-emphasized.  Yes, it was clear an effort was being made to set the stage for the FOMC minutes release.  But the reversal off the first attack was so strong, it further confirmed the change in character in these markets.  We’ve highlighted this change for weeks, and discussed this specific upside reversal in our article spotlighting the confirmatory sentiment shift visible in mining shares.  Click here to read that article.

 

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Digging into the FOMC minutes

 

Much of the FOMC minutes contained the usual boring babble.  But there was a portion that directly relates to bond market vigilantes occasionally flexing their muscles – and the bond market vigilantes are of grave concern to the Fed.  In classic Fed-speak, the following discussion is downright humorous:
Staff Review of the Financial Situation

Financial markets were volatile at times during the intermeeting period as investors reacted to Federal Reserve communications and to incoming economic data and as market dynamics appeared to amplify some asset price moves. Broad equity price indexes ended the period higher, and longer-term interest rates rose significantly. Sizable increases in rates occurred following the June FOMC meeting, as investors reportedly saw Committee communications as suggesting a less accommodative stance of monetary policy than had been expected going forward; however, a portion of the increases was reversed as subsequent policy communications lowered these concerns. U.S. economic data, particularly the June employment report, also contributed to the rise in yields over the period.

 

Well, duh…  These dolts were talking up an early end to QE and tapering in June, and subsequently flip-flopping faster than a freshly caught fish on a dock.  This ineffectual, downright embarrassing “communications strategy” remains one of the Fed’s primary tools.  Who can blame them?  They’ve placed themselves inside a box with little room to maneuver.  Cut QE meaningfully and long-term rates will spike higher, “the economy would tank” (Bernake’s own words), asset prices would drop and US budget deficits would not be able to be funded by newly issued debt.  But failure to speak about taking away the punch bowl (or even “tapering” the size of punch cups) contributes to asset bubbles and an a further unstable situation.  The Fed is stuck, in a quagmire of it’s own making.    Bottom-line:  the up trend in long-term rates will continue, has we have consistently warned since May;  this dynamic will ultimately be the undoing of the “extend and pretend” bad joke that passes for economic policy.

 

Another portion of the minutes is also worth highlighting (and translating):

 

Increases in total bank credit slowed in the second quarter, as the book value of securities holdings fell slightly and C&I loan balances at large banks increased only modestly in April and May. M2 grew at an annual rate of about 7 percent in June and July, supported by flows into liquid deposits and retail money market funds. Both of these components of M2 may have been boosted recently by the sizable redemptions from bond mutual funds. The monetary base continued to expand rapidly in June and July, driven mainly by the increase in reserve balances resulting from the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.

 

This is a perfect illustration of contradictions growing out of hyperactive policy management.  Translating the above into simply English:  As interest rates rose, the price of bond holdings declined, lowering the total value of bank balance sheets.  In turn, banks made fewer loans, resulting in a slower rate of increase in bank credit to the real economy (loans to businesses, etc.).  Meanwhile, as the Fed freaks out about rising long-term interest rates and understands the necessity of continuing QE to slow the rate of long yields ascent, the Fed’s QE purchases reduces the aggregate pile of garbage mortgage backed securities on bank balance sheets, which liberates the banks to conduct more speculative activity in the financial markets.   That, in turn, is starting to have an impact on M2.

 

Net result?  Deep incentives to the real economy go wanting while policy makers desperate to buy time and “extend and pretend” further distort the economy by furthering inflation’s expression throughout asset markets.

 

The only FOMC voting member to vote against continued QE was Esther L. George.  That combined with the intractability of the Fed’s position strongly implies that there will be no tapering in September.  Even if we do get tapering (which is what most Wall Street big money speculators anticipate), it will likely only be no more than a $10 billion reduction to the current $85 billion program.

 

Have a good weekend, everyone.  Rest-up.  Get ready for September.  It’s going to rock and roll.  – Eric Dubin

 

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  1. Excellent analysis of where we’re at and where we’re headed into next week and beyond. Very positive, but subdued and realistic.
     
    While he agrees with Jim Sinclair (and others) that the cartel has now positioned itself for the metals to rise higher, Eric Dubin makes a very valid point in clarifying the specifics behind this assertion.  He does a good job at bringing that assertion down to earth, lest the PM “community” expect a grand, immediate and unrestrained “blast off to the moon!”, something that would not be in the interest of the cartel, even if they have lengthened the leash considerably.
     
    Patience will still be the order of the day going forward, as the rise will likely be more methodical (though no less exciting).

    • “Patience will still be the order of the day going forward, as the rise will likely be more methodical (though no less exciting).”
       
      A sudden rise in the dollar prices of PMs might be exciting but, typically, it just isn’t sustainable.  Right now, a sustainable and steady rise in PM prices would be a lot more satisfying than a rapid climb followed by just as rapid decline.

  2. The answer to the Assad Question:
    SEVERAL reasons. Same reason he has bombed and killed over 100,000 Sunni Syrians with conventional weaponry: he is a minority Alawite (Shiite) who is trying to rule a majority Sunni populace that wants him gone (with Al-Qaeda in the mix).
    I don’t know anyone’s background here in traveling to the Mid-East and dealing with Arabs and Russians, but bluffing is a HUGE part of their culture, and when dealing with governmental levels with years of experience in psy-ops (oh, you think the CIA is the only one who does psy-ops?? heheheh), you get convincing stuff.
    It is in his interest because the West has started sending Special Ops, which means he senses very threatened (as do the Russians and IRGC), and he is trying to spook the West into hesitating and having no resolve.
    Also, the Russians and Iranians have “cornered” (banks aren’t the only ones to corner stuff) the alternative media realm, with few exceptions (WND for example) and are masters at propaganda.
    Assad knows he can get away with this because the Russians have his back, as do the IRGC, and whatever happens, he knows his Russian benefactors will spin ANYTHING into an anti-West narrative (again I ask, how many RT articles have been published criticizing the atrocious corruption and social plights within Russia? Zip, nada).
    Assad’s #1 goal is survival, and if there is a paradigm shift on the ground (Special Ops creating a buffer one in the South), he himself will react to that paradigm shift with one of his own, confident that the ruthless IRGC will fight for him and that the full weight of Russian governmental support, intervention and propaganda (led by the former head of the KGB, who made the CIA look like amateurs in the Cold War when it came to propaganda and indoctrination) will defend him in the global public opinion realm.
    BTW, Russia is smart… propaganda is used to get your opponent to start thinking like you do and to sympathize with you, ripening him into a fruit suited for the picking. Thus, Russian propaganda isn’t aimed at Russians…. it is aimed at those who make up the backbone of American/Western patriotism.

    http://www.debka.com/article/23218/The-sarin-shells-fired-on-Damascus—by-Syrian-4th-Division%E2%80%99s-155th-Brigade—were-followed-by-rockets-on-Israel-and-car-bombings-in-Lebanon-

    http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/5448/  Notice, these stories come from State television, not any independent, non-corporate journalistic sleuth. But watch, the “independent” journalistic alternatives will pick up on this State-run story and run with it. Masters of propaganda.

    • Ok somebody has been drinking too much Obama koolaid, you can change the word Russia to USA in your brilliant rant and have it just about right….
      what a bunch of bs, USA has sponsored dictatorships in this region for decades any one killing any one else in the Middle East was $$$$ funded  by the USA government. Period ! Yes Russia is no saint and its problems in the Middle East in the 70′s…. This is for control of oil not Muslims or any religions or politics.
      Stop drink your tap water.

    • Funny how  Proverbs1616 completely ignores the fact that all of the “independent”, corporate-owned, mainstream, Western alphabet soup news media is State-run by (intentional) default, presenting the State’s spin to further the State’s own interests.

    • I’m a Veteran, and a Patriot. Proverbs may still have something important to share here. Whereas my country has been corruptable as of the past decade to a large fault, the Russian Govt. Are no angles. Has U.S.A. been despicable lately with allies chosen and wars fought? I feel so, but be careful what you wish for, because I’m certain the ground is just as muddy on the other side of the fence (if not muddier) should you decide to play ball over there.
      My point summerized (to my fellow Americans) digest what you hear on RT with intelligent scepticism. Just as you would Corp. TV. There is propaganda everywhere, shield your feelings and filter all data carefully! A balanced ingestion might reveal the real truth behind events, and even then, you may never know the true cause.  

    • don’t be distracted by the political duality that bounces us back and forth: democrat to republican; USA to Russia; Israel to Iran, they are all manipulated by the same controlling elite.
      at the moment we as a world are lining up, once again, for a World War.  anyone who thinks there is a good guy and a bad guy here needs to return to kindergarten.

    • Do you really believe that Assad is used chemical weapons? LOL What a childish innocence! I remind you, as security forces in Turkey earlier arrested a group of terrorists who were trying to deliver to Syria components of chemical weapons. But this time, the terrorists have successfully organized this provocation with chemical weapons. Washington needs only any pretext for military intervention in Syria. And such a pretext for Washington has just successfully created. The Union of terrorists from the breast pocket of Washington together with the CIA, well-organized and made ​​this provocation. By the way, how is your opinion on Libya? Do you think that after the military intervention of the United States, the standard of living in Libya has grown? Or do you think that after the military intervention of the United States, the level of corruption in Libya was lower? Or your childish innocence once again more stronger, than your common logic? FauxNews – it’s only real true, is not it? LOL

    • @Silvermail
      It’s just like the “O” administration to draw a thin red line in the sand, and push Assad over it…
       
      IMO that is very likely, exactly what happened! We need to NOT allow another war! 

    • @Silvermail
      Yea, I believe Assad used Chemical weapons.
      In any case, you can make the personal decision not to believe it, I won’t be angry with you for disagreeing with me.
      What you CAN’T disagree with though is that God is 100% right in prophesying in Isaiah 17:1-2 that Damascus would be wiped out from being a city in judgment for all its hatred and violence against Israel. Damascus is the World oldest, continually-inhabited city.
      So, drink the RT Kool-Aid and Spit out the Debka/Times of Israel/Ynet Kool-Aid if you want, but the Bible will be vindicated, because God has decreed His judgment on Damascus for their violence and sin and hate. As they’d say in the South: God don’t lie.

  3. This edition gets to the heart of the matter, propaganda from those caught in the corner. Nothing is as it seems. All stats are lies designed to preverse the order of things until they cannot be preserved.
    The situation at hand is extremely complex but there are certain facts, both mathematical and those going to the heart of human nature.   Those exiting the bond and stock markets now are getting the best deal.  The door is closing on the bond market and exiting will be very costly in short order. 
    September and October far and away represent months of high potential volatility in the equity markets–usually downward
    The UST has to issue $1 trillion of new debt to manage the government needs.  The Thrift Savings Plan is probably depleted by now.
    The government has not shown US Debt  increase in a couple of months yet we are less than $90 billion from the $17 trillion level.
    There is about $ 4 trillion in refi UST debt due this year and to the best of my knowledge no one is buying with firm conviction.
    If the Fed stops buying our debt the cash box will be dry in 2 weeks or less
    The debt ceiling must be dealt with, failure to handle it either way will create another UST downgrade, hammering the market. 
    Egan Jones is a honest rater.  Watch them.  The other 3 are co-opted through threats by the DOJ
    The foreign governments are offloading $40-60 billion in UST debt months. That is half of  QE funding forced  back into TBTF Banks
    UST rates must climb no matter what the Fed tries to do to keep rates down.  Pandora’s box is open and won’t be shut again
    War is good for one commodity   Gold and Silver prices. Sad by true Potential violent price rises will smash the shorts.
    If the markets take a large hit due to interest rate rise, gold and silver might decline due to mass liquidations of all asset classes
    My banker says he expects prime rate to go up 25 BPS in September and will startle the markets.  I think he’s optimistic
    Since most poeple are focussed on equities action rate hikes will kill the market, showing fraud and fear in the indices.
    The NASDAQ shutdown locked up $5.6 trillion in equity value for 3 hours. What happens when a cyber attack makes this 3 days?
    The old maxim, 3 jumps (rate) and a stumble,  will create that perfect vacuum, drawing the stock market downward. 
    Watch oil prices as part of ME fear factor. Oil prices will drive almost everything in the market They are a good bellwether.
    Charlie’s Silver Recliner report will be pivotal for the Asian markets and market expectations for Monday opening.  JPM is listening

    PS When DBank gets Dexia’ed or ABN AMRO’ed, it will be game over. That is a certainty. Forced merged as least, failure at worst.
    DBank is the center of everything bad in the international banking system, maybe even worse than JPM, GS, MS and B of A combined.
     
     
     

    • “My banker says he expects prime rate to go up 25 BPS in September and will startle the markets.  I think he’s optimistic”
       
      I agree with the 25 bp rise in interest rates.  Wall Street will soil their panties until they WTFU and realize that this is actually healthy for the economy and not TEOTWAWKI.  Same with “tapering”.  A $5-10B reduction in the amount of Fed bond buying per month would see the program ended, not abruptly, but over a period of several months.  Hey, it HAS to end sometime.  Right now the odds favor either a controlled ending or an indefinite period of QE ending in a catastrophic unmanaged collapse.  Maybe it’s just me but bring on the controlled descent vs. the totally out of control crash and burn scanario.
       
      “When DBank gets Dexia’ed or ABN AMRO’ed, it will be game over. That is a certainty. Forced merged as least, failure at worst.”
       
      That certainly seems possible but I can’t think of anything in the economy or in politics that qualifies as a “certainty”.
       
      My question for Merkel is, “If you had to choose between saving DB and saving the EU, which would you choose?”.  If we knew the answer to that, it would make for a fascinating bit of info and a clue as to the future of the EU.
       

  4. Obadiah 1
    New International Version (NIV)

    Obadiah’s Vision
    1 The vision of Obadiah.
    This is what the Sovereign Lord says about Edom—

    We have heard a message from the Lord:
        An envoy was sent to the nations to say,
    “Rise, let us go against her for battle”—

    2 “See, I will make you small among the nations;
        you will be utterly despised.
    3 The pride of your heart has deceived you,
        you who live in the clefts of the rocks[a]
        and make your home on the heights,
    you who say to yourself,
        ‘Who can bring me down to the ground?’
    4 Though you soar like the eagle
        and make your nest among the stars,
        from there I will bring you down,”
    declares the Lord.
    5 “If thieves came to you,
        if robbers in the night—
    oh, what a disaster awaits you!—
        would they not steal only as much as they wanted?
    If grape pickers came to you,
        would they not leave a few grapes?
    6 But how Esau will be ransacked,
        his hidden treasures pillaged!
    7 All your allies will force you to the border;
        your friends will deceive and overpower you;
    those who eat your bread will set a trap for you,[b]
        but you will not detect it.

    8 “In that day,” declares the Lord,
        “will I not destroy the wise men of Edom,
        those of understanding in the mountains of Esau?
    9 Your warriors, Teman, will be terrified,
        and everyone in Esau’s mountains
        will be cut down in the slaughter.
    10 Because of the violence against your brother Jacob,
        you will be covered with shame;
        you will be destroyed forever.
    11 On the day you stood aloof
        while strangers carried off his wealth
    and foreigners entered his gates
        and cast lots for Jerusalem,
        you were like one of them.
    12 You should not gloat over your brother
        in the day of his misfortune,
    nor rejoice over the people of Judah
        in the day of their destruction,
    nor boast so much
        in the day of their trouble.
    13 You should not march through the gates of my people
        in the day of their disaster,
    nor gloat over them in their calamity
        in the day of their disaster,
    nor seize their wealth
        in the day of their disaster.
    14 You should not wait at the crossroads
        to cut down their fugitives,
    nor hand over their survivors
        in the day of their trouble.

    15 “The day of the Lord is near
        for all nations.
    As you have done, it will be done to you;
        your deeds will return upon your own head.
    16 Just as you drank on my holy hill,
        so all the nations will drink continually;
    they will drink and drink
        and be as if they had never been.
    17 But on Mount Zion will be deliverance;
        it will be holy,
        and Jacob will possess his inheritance.
    18 Jacob will be a fire
        and Joseph a flame;
    Esau will be stubble,
        and they will set him on fire and destroy him.
    There will be no survivors
        from Esau.”
    The Lord has spoken.

    19 People from the Negev will occupy
        the mountains of Esau,
    and people from the foothills will possess
        the land of the Philistines.
    They will occupy the fields of Ephraim and Samaria,
        and Benjamin will possess Gilead.
    20 This company of Israelite exiles who are in Canaan
        will possess the land as far as Zarephath;
    the exiles from Jerusalem who are in Sepharad
        will possess the towns of the Negev.
    21 Deliverers will go up on[c] Mount Zion
        to govern the mountains of Esau.
        And the kingdom will be the Lord’s.

    Footnotes:

    • Hmmm,
      ya don’t say.
      Assad better throw out his Qur’an and start shaking like a little girl and wetting himself.
      God saw the decades worth of supporting and hosting and helping Hezbollah, Jihad Islami, PFLP, Hamas, etc.
      Judgement time.
      Btw, Isaiah 17:1-2 doesn’t just mean Assad will be judged… it means utter destruction. Meaning… Al-Qaeda and its Christian-hating Israel-hating meanies will be judged as well.
       

  5. While the old testament makes for interesting and thought provoking reading, there are other historical documents predating it. Most however will refuse to see past the first tree and exclaim that a desert lies where a forest should be. It really just takes a little curiosity to set course in a new direction…just need the right wind. Carry on folks, carry on.

  6. I really don’t see the reasoning behind derailing a topic of discussion with biblical references. Wouldn’t quoting something more cogent to the discussion fare better in bringing about interest from a wider audience than beating the same old drum of hopeless deitific pandering? 

  7. I respect the Lord, and value his words…. But I’m not the least bit interested in who is going to posses that desert looking, dry, undesirable land. I don’t see what all the fuss is about?  It doesn’t appear that fertile (unless fertilized by the corpses of men counts) 

    • @undeRGRound
       
      “At least SILVER is anti-bacterial, anti-viral, anti-microbial…”
       
      Indeed it is.  Good stuff, for sure.
       
      I keep a 1/4 oz. silver round in my Brita water pitcher.  It greatly slows the growth of algae, which means that I can reduce pitcher cleaning from every 8-10 days to more like 30-40 days.  No doubt that this also provides healthier water to drink.  :-)
       

  8. From Jesse’s Cafe:
    The ‘owners per ounce’ remains very high at a little over 48 potential claims for every ounce of gold in the registered (deliverable) category.
     
    that term, owners per ounce made me stop and laugh my ass off.  this is what it has come down to (or, what it always has been), imaginary ownership.  now that’s what I call true speculation!

  9. America will not get involved in Syria, they can’t establish air supremacy. Without this they need to move troops in, not popular, especially with good soldiers coming back with limbs blown off, let alone body bags.
     
    As for god, I believe in god, but I think as a human we have become arrogant about what it is or what its about. We are all born to die, I don’t want to live forever, I can’t think of anything worse than immortality in heaven or hell.
     
    Back on point, silver is going up, why? Arbitrage.  

    • “We are all born to die, I don’t want to live forever, I can’t think of anything worse than immortality in heaven or hell.”
       
      Agree on the 1st & 2nd sentences but lack sufficient information about the nature of heaven and hell to make an informed value judgement as to whether spending a LONG time there would be of interest.  ;-)

    • Immortality is a long long time. After about 300 years everything will be boring, unless you get you memory erased every so often or you have to start the cycle again as in Ragnorok. 

    • Yes, immortality IS a long time but we have no idea what we will be able to do, where or when we will be able to go, etc.  The universe is vast but is likely also a LOT more vast than we perceive.  We cannot judge it from what we know on this plane of existence.  Suffice it to say that if immortality is possible, it exists for excellent reasons.
       

    • Nothing has a reason, reason means purpose. The function of life is to fight against the ever present effects of entropy. It matters no a jot about what we can do, knowledge is futile for those who are born to die. And this is the absurdity of it all, to find reason in a life that has no reason.

    •  
      Ed_B … “if immortality is possible, it exists for excellent reasons.”

      I was going to comment … decided not to … then came back to it.

      Compelling enough evidence for me exists to believe there’s more to the subject of ‘metaphysical’ existence than apparent through our senses. As a boy of maybe 4 or 5, my Dad instilled in me a lasting curiosity for physics with his enthrallment over Einstein’s Special Theory of Relativity (among many other of his science related fascinations; metallurgy, for instance). At the time, I was attending Catholic Grade School and of course the Nuns plied us with regular church dogma as they were obligated to do. The two influences conjoined and ever since I’ve seen them as related.

      In pouring over E=Mc2, the concept that energy and matter were phase shifts of … something else … put me in mind of ‘The Trinity’, where the ‘Father” and ‘Son’ were plain enough, but that ‘Holy Ghost’ was the ‘something else’ to be contemplated more doggedly.

      Today, I try to keep abreast with String Theory’s 11 dimentional ‘M-Theory’ because (for me) it relates to the Eastern tendency (especially Tibetan) toward seeing continuity of life as that of a segmented, circuitous progression through different forms (they perceiving our current reality in different human or animal forms … I perceiving wholly unique physical realities and experience of existence they each impose upon ‘life’ within them).

      Any way, to circle back on the thread of ‘immortality’ … I’ve always been thoroughly convinced of it, since I accept that energy and matter are eternal and the ‘metaphysical’ only seems so, but is rather like ‘little bangs’ from one ‘Membrane’ to the next? Why this journey takes place, is the question that rivets my recurring focus on it’s contemplation.

  10. ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) – New Jersey’s newest casino is ending contributions to its employees’ 401K accounts as part of ongoing cost-cutting moves.
    Revel Casino Hotel says it hopes to be able to resume matching contributions to workers’ accounts at some point in the future.
    The $2.4 billion casino resort, which is less than a year and a half old, emerged from bankruptcy court in May. It has struggled since it opened in April 2012 to gain a substantial share of Atlantic City’s cutthroat casino market.
     

    Read more: http://www.myfoxny.com/story/23245356/revel-ends-contributions-to-401k#ixzz2cvoDAU9H

    It’s coming to a town near you…

  11. PMs rise or more precisely the fiat of the day becomes increasingly worthless because the money changers are back to their old tricks…we get rid of them we get rid of our financial dilemma, worldwide. We institute an interest free system of money exclusive of and not contingent upon interest on the specie itself. The central banking system is abolished orderly and completely and the United States Treasury will oversee operations forthwith. The new currency to be backed by an as of yet undetermined standard and not the whim or fancy of the elite but by the toil and sweat of labor. No more thin air creation, no more individual or government bailouts. Laws are followed and prosecutions to commence for all responsible parties. You want fair and equitable? Start there.

    • Fair and equitable sounds good to me but I think that we all realize that these elites are not just going away anytime soon for the good of humanity.  More likely, it will require “the blood of patriots and tyrants” to earn our release.  Not advocating this but simply do not see any other possibility.  If anyone else does, I am ALL ears!

  12.  We apply the law and we polish it and start again. We hold in highest regard and esteem the freedom to exist because we know the difference between right and wrong and we never again forsake our right to do so. Wake me up when you decide you want all people to be free in their choices good or bad with benefits or consequences depending on said choice.

  13. As to the article itself…
     
    “Why would President Assad gas his own people when he knows the US has declared the use of chemical weapons as a “red line” that if crossed would likely mean escalation/intervention?”
     
    Off-hand, I can think of at least 2 reasons: 1) he doesn’t take the twit in the White House or his threats seriously and 2) he has been given assurances of support by Putin and / or the Chinese.
     
    “Some in “our camp” have become so used to cartel flogging that a sense of dread and expectations for a bigger smash fell upon many in the stacker community as the cartel executed these nightly drive-by shootings .  But the importance of the fast rebounds after each capping attempt cannot be over-emphasized.”
     
    The good news is that there has been a repeating pattern of bigger smashes accomplishing less and the PM prices rebounding faster each time this is done.  Yes, they are buying time with this tactic but they are also emptying the Western vaults of gold and silver at fire sale prices.  We can be certain that when the East controls the bulk of the world’s gold and silver, they will not be pulling s**t like this nor will they be selling it on the cheap.
     
    “This ineffectual, downright embarrassing “communications strategy” remains one of the Fed’s primary tools.  Who can blame them?  They’ve placed themselves inside a box with little room to maneuver.
     
    The Fed is stuck, in a quagmire of it’s own making.”
     
    Indeed they are and this is EXACTLY why entering this swamp is a BAD idea.  Once you get a market hooked on very cheap money, it is difficult to go back to being clean again.  Oddly enough, all of this QE business was created so that: 1) the US would not have to face the music of an even deeper recession in 2008-09 and 2) to buy time to make structural repairs to the economy such that this would not happen again. Unfortunately, VAST amounts of money were printed / debt accumulated and the desperately needed structural repairs were not done.  This leaves us terribly susceptible to more of the same and very likely with a worse result than 2008-09.  When an economy has a large number of problems, we can either face the music, take our medicine, solve the crisis in a matter of difficult months, and move on to better times or we can fiddle-fart around, spend a lot of money we don’t have, fail to solve the structural problems that caused the recession while we chase the symptoms, and suffer with a lackluster economy for YEARS.  It is clear that the Gov and the Fed favor Door #2 in this game.
     
    “Net result?  Deep incentives to the real economy go wanting while policy makers desperate to buy time and “extend and pretend” further distort the economy by furthering inflation’s expression throughout asset markets.”
     
    It is those very actions that are making this recession longer and deeper than it ever needed to be.  A recession is nothing but the way in which a capitalist economy works off its excesses.  Yes, it hurts, but it is a good and healthy thing nonetheless.  If it is not done, these same excesses fester and become a lot more serious than they would be if simply purged on a routine basis.  These are a lot like the controlled burns that foresters use to prevent huge wildfires that burn long enough and hot enough to destroy old growth timber, while short duration quick fires rid the forest of its combustible debris without serious harm to the big trees.  Unfortunately, the Fed and the Gov see recessions not as healthy purges of economic excesses, but as politically unacceptable interruptions in “letting the good times roll”.
     
    “Even if we do get tapering (which is what most Wall Street big money speculators anticipate), it will likely only be no more than a $10 billion reduction to the current $85 billion program.”
     
    The trick with tapering will be to start slowly enough that Wall Street doesn’t get hysterical again.  Once they see that tapering is not destroying the market, it will become seen as a necessary move on the part of the Fed and not the utter destruction that is anticipated.  Of course, it IS Fed money that is levitating the US stock market above prices that our economy can justify, so share prices will decline along with Fed tapering.  At some point, however, the US economy will start walking normally rather than limping along.  At that point and beyond, perhaps the distortions introduced via QE, Operation Twist, and other Fed interventions will be seen as the unnecessary nonsense that they truly were.  But this will not happen as long as the amateurs at the Fed and in the Gov continue to think that they know more about the economy than the market does or more about creating jobs than do the CEOs and entrepreneurs who actually do that kind of work for a living.

    • “At some point, however, the US economy will start walking normally rather than limping along.”
      The US economy – what’s this?
      - You mean the economy of the printing press?
      - Or do you mean the economy of plunder of other countries and peoples through the export of inflation?
      - Or do you mean the economy of plunder of other countries and peoples through destabilization, color revolutions and direct military invasions?
      What exactly do you mean, when you say the phrase: “The U.S. economy”?

      Or You mean the economy of the pyramid of debt, as the greatest Ponzi scheme in the world?

    • If you are all done putting words in my mouth, I can elucidate.  I refer to the economy as the sum total of work that is done by people in this country and that is usually stated in some US dollar value.  It is not a political statement or a statement of agreement with the world as it is.  Work is done, products and services are produced, sold, and distributed, and payment is exchanged.  That’s all. Currently, this amounts to about $13-14T USD annually.  Not sure of the number as it is estimated differently by multiple sources.
       

    • Ed_B … “I refer to the economy as the sum total of work that is done”

      Only as a rhetorical ‘thought balloon’ over my head, not meant to be answered, but just to be read … is the work done, ‘the economy’, or the maintenance of it?

  14. Look Prices cannot go down forever, we have weathered the storm, had a good opportunity to accumulate moar at nice prices. Now it is time for the metals to resume their primary trend which is up no doubt about it look at the price over the last 5-10 years, nothing has changed in fact fundamentals have only gotten better… So all I can say is expect higher prices, the bull market in metals still has a few years left 

  15. The price of everything is determined by how realistically the market can bear the price. The market isn’t just the paper traders, but also bullion traders. If you think that we are off to the races with prices doubling again, your gravely mistaken. Wage prices have not moved in line with any inflation, new job wages have been capped or lowered because of the economy. Precious metals will rise in line with inflation, but no more. Good wealth preserver but no money making opportunity. All we need to do is figure out what the true inflation is and bingo we have a future price baked in. Inflation, world wide is running around 4-10 %. Compound this and you can get your 10 year price. The much vaunted German economic success has been because of stealth taxation on its people. No wage increases for over 10 years! No wonder everything seems more valuable, everything is deemed more valuable than the labour that created everything! In economy nothing is less valuable than the value that man puts on another mans work. 

    • WaitingForSilver  … “In economy nothing is less valuable than the value that man puts on another mans work.”

      I often agree with many of the details of your commentaries but on this, I’m sorry, that’s just another ‘Humanist’ falacy. People’s wills don’t determine the price of Labor, nor does the ‘cost of living’ any more than the barest of sustenance (in a sustainably healthy economy). As with everything else, the ratio of supply to demand does. Labor is another element of Good within the grand Matrix. If, in any locale, there are ten laborors for every job necessitating their skils, it wouldn’t matter if the job category were nuclear phyicist, the wage would settle at the lowest level which properly qualified candidates would accept without leaving work wanting attendance. 

      I’m NOT implying your usage as any sort of subterfuge, so PLEASE don’t rage about ‘accusations’, but also this 1984 NewSpeak notion of inflation measured as price levels, is misleading in the extreme, no matter how incessantly repeated. This is especially so in the banknote paradigm. Inflation is only properly (and most beneficially) perceived in its classical definition as expansion of currency in an economy. Whether the vast bulk is temporarily bottled up in financial instruments and bank books, the ultimate generalized price effect of the total currency quantity is inevitable. That ‘dam break’ can occur suddenly or slowly, but to arrange one’s financial life in presumption of the latter is a potentially disasterous gamble. True, the quantity of currency … in circulation  … trends toward equilibration with that of goods at market (such as gold), but the quantity of currency … in toto … trends toward equilibration with … the currency itself. ‘Bottling up’ some huge amount of the currency only hides the fact that it’s inflation depreciates each unit, which MUST come to bear at SOME length.

      So, wage levels or general price increases notwithstanding, if say an exodus from bonds and stocks began tomorrow morning and the resort of gold and silver (the only actual, genuine money, whether in coin or bullion form) was chosen by a sufficient percentage of those fleeing their ‘notional wealth’, the effect of hidden (paper-digital) currency inflation would sustainably propel the metals to unimaginable ‘prices’ regardless of any ‘trend lines’ on any ‘chart patterns’, a century of which will instantly become so much inconsequential trash.
       

    •  WaitngForSIlver  “In economy nothing is less valuable than the value that man puts on another mans work. ”
      You are oblivious to the real world. I can’t imagine you are speaking of slave labor and we do live in a free society so I want to know do you ever leave your house?! Have you never seen the sign in a mechanics shop for labor and diagnostic price per hour?! Or know what a neurosurgeon gets to attach the girls foot from last week’s tragic accident in Manhattan?! And the operations success or failure does not impact price!!! Day labor costs $100 a head and that’s for the guy to sweep up or go for coffee. C’mon sparky you can’t be serious? Try building a house and let us know where1/2 of your cost is. 

  16. The Central Banks of Syria and Iran must be taken before the New World Order can go into effect.  Time is running out for them to meet this goal.  We are in the final weeks before their deadline.  They have given the date.  Oct 8th.  Get your gas cheap, now…
     
    As for the direction of silver.  Up from here.  Only Short/Put players need lose their money from here on…

  17. RGR  here is KLUMMAC’s plan
    1.   Procratinate and push off hard decisions    30 months and 100,000 dead Syrians later  Check and golf
    2.  Take no responsibility and blame someone else  Bush, Russians,  Iranians, Willie Wonka  Check and gold
    3.  Take half measures that amount to no measures    Saber rattling, bluster  Putin Laughs  Check and golf
    4.  Do something sneaky and claim credit   Gas, WMDs  Noballs Peas Price   Check and gold
    5.  Go golfing   Check Check Check Check Check Check  Check and Checkeroonie  golf with body man Reggie Love
    6.  Lather rinse and repeat.  Take late night showers with Reggie Love

    • AGXIIK thanks for the reply on the San Diego debacle. Yes, plenty of corrupt politicians in San Diego. Paying for all those unsold seats @ The “Q” and then some. 

  18. Yeah, OK Proverbs, WND is a good example of alternative news? With serial liars like Joseph Farah and Frank Gaffney, Ann Coulter, and David Limbaugh? That IMO is why Christians should avoid politics beacuse if you can’t recognize these people for what they then your eyes are half closed.

  19. I tell you what Charlie, when AG hits $100, (and it will) I will have lady avatar do a jig for SD.  That will be my (our) contribution.  It may be some time off, so I will video sometime soon & save.  
     
    We are IN for the long haul, sell @ 50, no way,
    75, nope
    100, maybe some
    We anticipate much higher pricing, well above 100.
    Good Lord willing, 

  20. @ Proverbs1616 
    I understand – in Iraq had “weapons of mass destruction” and you, too, believed in this dirty lie. And now in Syria chemical attack and you again, believe in this dirty lie .
    Blessed are those who believe, do not you? LOL

    Just please do not confuse the name of God, with the dirty lies, provocations and terrorism.

  21. For anyone who is interested  There is one rule to follow with bullies (Having been one) 
    It couples with Ron Whites rules for the Fight Club
    Ron White says that if you won’t know how many they plan to bring to the fight, know this. They will bring enough
    Bullies can be dealt with the Rule of 5.  See lions attack a Cape Buffalo.  It take 5. One for each leg and the 5th lion administers the coupe de Gracie.
    With bullies.
    A bully can take 3 down, fight to a draw with 4 but with 5 taking him on, one for each arm and leg, the 5th administers the coupe de ville
    USA?   Think BRICS  nuff said. 

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