RJO’s Phillip Streible: Support at $1650 & $30 Will Hold for Gold & Silver

RJO’s Senior Commodities Analyst Phillip Streible (who last month made silver his #1 commodities pick for 2013, stating that silver would explode to the upside in 2013 on a short covering rally) was back on Bloomberg TV, discussing how China’s hot inflation numbers might impact gold, silver, and copper.   Streible doesn’t expect higher than expected inflation numbers out of China to slow their stimulus whatsoever, and believes that copper, silver, gold, platinum, and palladium will all see substantial rallies due to China’s continued growth as well as unending QE.

We’re not seeing silver drop below $30, we’re not seeing gold drop before $1650.  I think the support levels are in, I think we’re going to start to build to the upside, and I think that Quantitative Easing is going to be the fuel behind it

Streible’s full interview is below:

 

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Comments

  1. SO MUCH FOR THE 1650 CALL. ITS SO FUNNY TO WATCH ALL THESE SO CALLED EXPERTS CALLING FOR A BOTTOM FOR OVER A YEAR NOW. EVERY WEEK IS THE WEEK THAT THE NEXT LEG UP IS IMMINENT. I THINK EVERYONE UNDERESTIMATES THE POWER OF THE PAPER PLAYERS TO KEEP THIS GAME GOING. THEY HAVE UNLIMITED FIAT TO DO THIS.

    • no, whats even more funny is how silver doctors puts these up as information. I havent posted in a while, and nothing seems to change.–well maybe something- ii dont see that slogan stack the smack. 
      Well, we the bottom is close IMO. I dont need morris hubbart, or thompson to tell me what to think… its been almost two years of a correction, not in price but time… so we should be good to go… not sure if we will see one more waterfall to shake people out, but its a strong possibility that they may engineer it before the run up. 

    • Welcome back iLuv
      Now that you’ve showed up, I have my indicator that its time to “STACK THE SMACK!!!!” (had to do it sorry)
      Seriously tho, you still expecting 88 Dollar Index and $22 silver?

    • SOL: 
       
         If you think Im a bear then you have issues. I have hung around watching the metals do their thing… Actually, ive been in school and am completing my CA (CPA equivalent in the states). I know the metals and how they operate… and silver needed a breather… the charts show it… anyways, if you think you should stack the smack go do it… its not my business…. just dont be swayed by idiots on tv or kingworldnews… saying the bottom is in.. look after yourself and gold bless you and your family. 
       
      take care .

    • Didn’t say you were a bear.

      I respect different opinions – I just had to poke at you for being a drive by.  I remember when you used to get into it with folks on the blogspot site – and I’m not one of those for sure.

      But I do hate it when people try to discourage folks from putting a little bit of wealth away here and there just because they “know the metals” and that they’re predicting a $10 drop.  Last year, when you were sure that the dollar index was headed to 88 and that metals were going to drop significantly (like to $18), it was just as much of a shot in the dark (and just as incorrect so far) as saying that the fiat collapse will happen tomorrow.  Many people can’t/won’t save up that cash to bottom fish (and even if they could would be they be able to pick the bottom?).  Making drive by skid mark statements like that is just either irresponsible or subversive.

      In markets where fundamentals are constantly battling with manipulation it is ridiculous to try to make those predictions in either direction.  I think that the only thing that most of us proles can really do is try to determine what is fundamentally undervalued in the long run and wait for the fundamentals to win out.  That’s why everyone here is always so sure that there is a price explosion right around the corner – it is just crazy to people that the manipulation can keep going on.  Personally I’m glad cuz I can just keep stackin.

      I think you’re general point is the same as mine though – don’t worry about the machinations, try to keep some powder dry and if you see a good opportunity, “cop the drop”(tm)   ;)

      Peace out

    • Not so much of a drive by skid… just no point in posting untl the metals breakout…. should be soon tough we have a capitulation going on….. Whats the point in the same talk eh?

  2. QE will be the fuel to light the metals to the moon. apparently the wood used to light the fire was wet. Once it is dry, we’re off.
     
     

  3. It has been a long slog the last couple of years. We can never know All the reasons for volatility but for a minute I would like to cover a few of the things we do KNOW that are bullish for Ag. 1. There are only 700m ounces mined a year and less than 200m available for investment. That is tight, .03 oz per global capita! 2. QE or its equivalent is happening in nearly every nation in the world. 3. One country after another are going bankrupt and choking on their debt and devaluing their paper currencies and emplementing austerity measures. 4. Governments around the world are introducing capital controls to try and stop their citizens from buying PMs and keep them in fiat currencies. 5. As fiat currencies devalue and inflation starts biting into a persons wages people have historically turned to PMs to maintain their wealth and those who bought them when others didn’t want them succeeded in doing that. NOW lets look at the other side at what is bearish for Ag and PMs in general. 1. Banks activities: Selling paper representations of PMs, swapping paper and leasing PMs back and forth to push the market price down. 2. THERE IS NO 2.

    • “ As fiat currencies devalue and inflation starts biting into a persons wages people have historically turned to PMs to maintain their wealth and those who bought them when others didn’t want them succeeded in doing that.”
       
      The crushing of the US middle class could be just part of all this.  Reducing people from an economic status that allows them to save to one of hand-to-mouth where they must spend all they earn in order to live and cannot save would definitely squelch any ideas on their part to save money in PMs.  One can only protect their wealth IF they have some to protect.
       
      For me, converting 15-20% of my wealth into PMs is based upon mathematics and not on the hysterical bleating of the so-called “experts”.  The case for owning silver and gold is clear.  History proves that this is the right move and current central bank and government policies are shrinking the buying power of fiat right before our very eyes.  It could not be more obvious.  The question we must all ask ourselves is, “Is my money better off in gold / silver or paper?”.   Consider that if economist John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com is correct and we really did have 9.4% inflation in 2012, it will take less than 8 years (via the rule of 72) for our purchasing power to be cut in half.  Don’t know how others look at this but I find it unacceptable… and that’s if the rate of inflation does not increase, which it very well might thanks to 24/7 fiat printing.  Anyway, once we answer that question to our satisfaction, we’ll know what to do. 
       

  4. I’ve had not bought any metals for some weeks now. Just keeping an eye on what’s the latest move downward. I’ve been in the metals markets now almost 10 years and nothing surprises me anymore.

    • NetRanger808:  Unless you deem your stack able to withstand ANYTHING, you HAVE TO be buying now…..whenever and wherever you can find it….period!  Being a stacker fror 10 years as well, no silver should be refused.

  5. OH BOY! Another top/bottom caller. right now gold is at $1635. Silver at $30.44. Are we not due for another silver @ $1000 and gold @ $15,000, blast off article by some guru coming any moment now?

  6. I’ll remember he said that and a poision pen letter will follow.

  7. It’s really hard to predict or chart anything where shorts are allowed to corner the paper market.  The comedy organization which didn’t seriously investigate Bernie Madoff or Corzine until the scandal broke rolls on.  Might as well hire Moe, Larry and Curly for your investigative work.
     
    Anyone that tries to forecast silver really does need to put on a tin foil hat.  That part I will agree!

  8. My question is this, how many ounces stacked is enough?  Do we need to be all in PM’s?  1000 oz per person?  Is there a good rule of thumb?

    • There’s really no way to know because what each person needs depends a lot on what else they already have.  A ballpark number would be 1/2 an oz. a day per person but anyone who grows their own food will probably not need that much.  Now, consider just how long you might need to get through the next SHTF situation.  A year?  That would be the minimum, I would think.  It could be longer than that and perhaps much longer.  The Great Depression went on for 10+ years and it is possible that the next one could be worse than that.  Looked at in this light, my stack would hold out for 425 days.  Not bad but probably not that great either.  More is needed.  Perhaps 3-4x this amount. Additional food production would be of considerable help.
       

  9. Should we be like sumkid who has almost 2400 oz?

    • 2400 oz?  We bought that much in 2008 after the crash with less money than a Toyota Camry costs and didn’t stop there!  I think 1 metric ton per person is a good rule of thumb, unless you are multi-multimillionaire, and then you should think bigger.  lol

  10. Phillip used to work for MF Global with Jim Comiskey.  Jim is a great guy and has a daily youtube video which is usually good.  Phillip doesn’t seem that bad of a guy but he like to go on Bloomberg and CNBC which isn’t a good thing. 

  11. I was basically chased off Turds board for telling him his TA was almost worthless in manipulated markets.
    Long term calls don’t bother me so much (Sinclairs $1650 call for instance), but the daily chart stuff is a complete waste of time and energy.

    • Turd, Brother John, and all the other tarot card readers(chart analysis) have to defend their witchcraft.  Don’t you get it! Hocus pocus, what do I see.  Fibonacci lines, 50 day moving averages, stochastics, candlesticks and other tools which allow me to see the future.  Sorry guys, you are full of shit.  Nothing and I mean nothing can work in these markets to predict moves in this environment.  You are misleading people to sell subscriptions and get hits on your youtube channel.  Just ask these people what happen on May 1, 2011?  Did any of those charts help?  What happened to silver that Sunday night?  The one freaking time you needed to see a huge move down in the charts and what happened?  Silver got smashed down 6 bucks in 12 freaking minutes?  Did the charts see that move coming?  Of course it didn’t.  How in the hell could it?  The charts looked great and bullish.  Silver was going past 50 and beyond.  Then boom, 13% was gone in minutes!  You cannot chart these markets.  It’s amazing people fall for this bullshit.

    • I like you duckvision. 

    • TA is the current version of reading animal entrails to divine the future.  Less messy, though, and its fans are just as rabidly convinced that their “art” is correct.
       

  12. Well, I am waiting. All this fuss over nothing, this is a holding position its been a fortnightly cyclical position for about 2 months now. This week it will hit £19.65 on Friday, then next week back up to £19.99. Just wait..the markets don’t know what to make of anything any more. I think the biggest buy position will be the end of the month when the US spending cuts have to come in.
     
    Only thing I wish I had done, was to go all in just before Christmas. Still always next Christmas.
     
    Silver will go up, it just won’t be a quick thing, it will be one of those creep on you out of the blue things. 

  13. I see all these calls for the commodity metals to make gains because China is going strong. We collapse China just lost one of its biggest markets and the prices on copper, platinum, palladium will drop.

  14. The wise guys on COMEX can make the paper price do anything. All these “technicals” are nonsense to me. Take the price too low though, and a physical buying frenzy could result.

  15. Hi everyone..
    I’ve been reading this site for a while now, and I must say it is a wealth of information. For the people who seem to be losing hope, hang in there.. Probably it won’t be much longer before the system as we know it will be replaced with a one world currency (probably all digital). The physical will help you stay off the grid for a while longer, so the more you have the longer it will be… Please meet your new Pope ( for the practicing Catholics out there)..:) I thought this was an interesting article..
    http://richardgleaves.blogspot.ca/2013/02/a-trail-ofbreadcrumbs-resignation.html

    • MadMax – interesting article and the author here makes some very good points. Somewhat wide eyed naiveté with the obama summation but on the whole makes sense from my perspective. Thanks for the link…..

  16. Sadly PM Advisory Nesletters have little to work on besides TA, and they have only a 50% chance of being right. i have found only 3 sources of better than 50% predictive rates:
    1. The Friday COT reports, which show bearish (when the Commercials are net with many shorts, while the Large Specs are net with many longs) or bullish (Commercials are net with few shorts, while Large Specs are net with few longs). i use the word net, because both Commercials and Large Specs each hold long and short positions simeltaneously, and it’s the net position which tells the effective position. It’s quite difficult to see the net positions, and their changes over the medium term (2-3 months would show the trend where Commercilas and Large Specs are migrating towards a bullish or bearish net position), unless viewed in graph form. The simple Excel style numbers format is harder to read/interpret. Unfortunately the week to week COT changes have little informational value. The Excel style COT report analyses, on for instance Harvey Organs otherwise excellent site, are ok to see changes from the prior week, but don’t show the medium term trend. It’s generally accepted that one should play on the side of the Commercials medium term trend, and that would historically certainly have improved ones odds by a lot more than 50%.
    2. There are high power PM traders working the London desks, that are at the coal face for the daily spot physical PM demand and supply tonnages (with China, India and Central Bank buying being the most significant). They watch the London market (the “dog”), constrained as it is by a limited daily physical supply, as compared to the Comex paper market (the”tail”), which tries to wag the dog, by virtue of its unlimited supply of long and short futures contracts. They also can see Comex layers of stops for both longs and shorts below and above the ruling market price, and where the Commercials aim for with HFT to trigger waterfall changes up or down (depending on which direction theye are trying to manipulate). They also have strong information networks, and are in the know about non transparent Over the Counter and other such info the unfortunate retail investor cannot possibly know. I subscribe to one such trader for a second by second analysis of the real coal face conditions, as well as medium and long term projections, which are completely non TA based, and substantially accurate. it’s an expensive subscription, as it should be.
     
    3. Since 2000, whenever the Large Speculators net long position (also called the net “open interest’ position) in Silver futures falls below 11000 contracts (a bullish position as described under 1. above), it’s followed by a rise in prices, sometimes by huge percentages. There have been 10 occasions this happened since 2000, and each one was a 100% certain prediction of coming rising prices. These are rare signals, and u need patience to wait for them. The 11000 contracts is the net Open Interest in Silver for the “next most active futures month”. The most active silver futures months are March, May, July, September and December.
     
    Hope this helps my fellow PM travellers keep matters in perspective.
     

  17. Does anybody remember the big smack down in 08?  I ran into some funny drama back then.  This one coin shop here quote unquote ran out of Silver.  yeah right.  They weren’t out of 1931-S pennies.  I can tell you that.  They were sitting on it just like I was.  I don’t care how low the price goes just so long as nobody runs out.  If the price scrapes $29 again I might miss the boat this time.  I’ll be running on fiat fumes for a few days.  Oh well you can’t win them all.  

  18. Sorry – possible correction to point 3 above – the total OI in silver futures may be for all futures months, not just the most active one. I used graphs that simply state “total OI Silver futures” – never thought about whether all futures or just next active month – proves again that explaining things in writing is the best way to find gaps in ones own knowlege.

  19. The last sub 11000 silver futures OI was just before the big price rise of August 2012. I am trying to find out if it’s all OI or just the next active month.

  20. 8.30am Eastern
     
    Wow – just look at that. The Cartel is throwing everything they can -  on Monday the Chinese return to the London physical market, and the cartel is crapping itself.

  21. Really, and as I read this article I see we are at 29.98… another hopeful commentator. 

  22. Here’s the 1 hour chart netdania. How’s that desperate volume spike around 3.30 Eastern Time. My screen shot is South African Time  – subtract 7 hours for Eastern.

  23. Wouldnt it be so much easier if these prognosticators and thier predictions based upon a perception of fairplay instead of what we actually have, just go about their business and not pollute the atmosphere with their incessant misguided optimism?!  just sayin. Dipping below this morning and we all know why… im sure this boob wishes he’d have just talked about the weather. peace

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