Yes, I and many others expect a rally…a significant rally…in the 2nd half of this year.
So this post is one to bookmark as we’ll discuss the various points on the chart where we can expect resistance to emerge.  The 2nd half of this year and then 2015 are going to be very interesting times to be alive.   Prepare accordingly.

Where might we find chart to resistance to the rally that is, most assuredly coming? (And, again, NOT just because the painted chart says so.   The London gold is “Gone…For Good” and the eventual realization of this will spur the rally to eventual new highs and beyond.)
Let’s start with gold.   For a plethora reasons, gold will NOT be breaking  down through The Double Bottom low of $1180.   It will instead, reverse course by later this month and then begin a slow-momentum build through the 2nd half of 2014.   First and foremost, gold must cross these two overhead resistance lines:


 

 

Submitted by T. Ferguson, TFMetals Report:

That song by Muse has long been an “anthem” here . “Resistance” and “Uprising” were both BIG sounds back in 2010 and 2011 and they remain no less relevant today as the forces of encroaching tyranny have only grown stronger and more outlandish.

“Kill your prayers for love and peace. You’ll wake The Thought Police.”

So, with that as a backdrop, where might we find chart to resistance to the rally that is, most assuredly coming? (And, again, NOT just because the painted chart says so. The London gold is “Gone…For Good” and the eventual realization of this will spur the rally to eventual new highs and beyond.)

Let’s start with gold. For a plethora reasons, gold will NOT be breaking  down through The Double Bottom low of $1180. It will. instead, reverse course by later this month and then begin a slow-momentum build through the 2nd half of 2014. First and foremost, gold must cross these two red lines on this daily chart:

But we’re just getting started, though, and if gold is indeed going to rally all the way to $2000 and beyond, we certainly can’t expect just an endless series of UPticks. There will be stopping points along the way where “overboughtedness” will need to be worked off before the trend can continue higher. (“Resistance points, you seek. Searching for stopping points, you are.” – a little Yoda love for you.) On this weekly chart, quite a few lines emerge. The first major line of resistance will be at $1320. After that…well you can see where it’s not going to be easy.

Turning to silver, as in gold I DO NOT expect new lows. After the complete and total washout of last June, price has yet to return to $18.20 and I don’t think it will this time, either. Especially not with The Specs having already built a larger short position than at the bottom last year. So, if a turnaround is an eventuality, where will silver encounter resistance? On the daily chart below, you can once again see all of the lines we’ve been watching, namely $19.20, $20.20 and $20.60.


And the weekly chart holds a very important clue. Recall the effort expended earlier to keep silver below the main trendline that stretches back to the highs of 2011. Well look how close we are to finally wedging into the corner created by that line and the MAJOR SUPPORT of $18. Moving through this line and heading back toward $20 and then $22 will be your sign that the long, slow, arduous decline is finally over and a new BULL has begun. Breaking $22, then $26 and then $36 will be mileposts along the way to a full recovery and beyond.

Again, I urge you to bookmark this page and save it for future reference. The 2nd half of this year and then 2015 are going to be very interesting times to be alive. Prepare accordingly.

TF

 

By subscribing to Turd Ferguson’s premium service, “Turd’s Vault,” you’ll get extra, value-added content that you won’t find anywhere else on the Internet. Members receive Turd’s insightful chart analysis, frequent podcasts covering market news, weekly podcasts with special guests, plus other helpful information, all available on a dashboard only available to gold members.

 

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  1. Silver Could Be Price Driver For Next Leg, Silver Juniors Well Positioned – PureFunds CEO
    By Alex Létourneau of Kitco NewsThursday June 26, 2014 12:33 PM
     

    (Kitco News) - With silver’s recent surge and a technical breakout above its 3-year bear trend line, Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer of PureFunds, thinks silver could dictate precious metals prices in the coming months.
    “Silver may be the driver for the next leg,” Chanin said during a telephone interview with Kitco News. “Mainly, I would point to the technical breakout we just saw last week, regarding the 3-year bear trend line, is going to be very bullish for the gold and silver markets alike. 
    “Seeing that silver was below that trend line over the last three years, I think finally we’ll start seeing the technical investors coming back,” he added.
    June has been a good month for silver prices, which in turn has helped swing silver miners upwards. PureFunds’ ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ), which reflects the performance of small-capitalization companies in the silver industry, has jumped 30% in June. 
    The price of silver has risen over $2 so far this month. 
    Chanin believes that a return of positive silver technicals will benefit the junior silver mining sector.
    “Technicals are back on silver’s side and I think it’s going to be beneficial to the junior silver space. …the mid-tier and senior producers have depleted a lot of their resources and reserves while producing at these low-to-negative per ounce margins that we’ve seen over the last year,” he said. “Because of that, and because of them shutting down exploration programs to a large extent, I think that juniors will be that much more in favor if silver prices go back to the levels of a few years ago.
    “That makes them a better target for the larger producers that will need to bring more supply possibilities online,” Chanin said. 
    During the last year senior and mid-tier mining companies have slashed their exploration budgets in an effort to reduce costs, which Chanin sees as a benefit for junior companies.
    “The less the seniors and mid-tiers spend on exploration, the better it will be for the juniors as their assets will be more in demand,” he said.
    However, the damage from the ‘buy-ounces-whatever-the-cost’ acquisition trend is still fresh in miners’ minds.
    “People are looking to make the right decisions,” Chanin said. “I think the companies that do make acquisitions will be more meticulous in their pursuit to add resources. 
    “The guys that come in during the early stage and do their due diligence in finding the right deals, will benefit greatly,” he continued. “Right now I think the company valuations are extremely low and I think that’s part of the reason companies are failing to get a deal done because the companies feel they’re worth a lot more.”
    Chanin also raised a point regarding the dissolution of the LBMA silver fix and silver miners as organizations are scrambling to introduce their own fix.
    “If they don’t like the solution for the silver fix, what’s stopping the miners from rallying together and finding their own solution?” Chanin said. “I mean, they’re the guys that are inevitably bringing in all the new supply to these markets; why wouldn’t they just rally together and create what they feel is the right price fix.”
    Currently there are seven organizations vying to work with the LBMA to find a replacement to the London silver fix, which will be halted Aug. 14.
    By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News aletourneau@kitco.comFollow Alex Letourneau @alex_letourneau

  2. “Past performance is no assurance of future prospects” was a mandatory line of rhetoric I was compelled to include in every script I composed as a stock broker. It’s especially apropos in the current environment, given that macro forces have so dramatically changed from what had been ‘the norm’ over the past century.

    While I believe Craig is correct in his assessment and overall view, I don’t look to chart patterns for those expectations because things truly have become so very different down at the most fundamental levels. That’s evident in the recent discussion of a 250% degree of physical hypothecation in silver … despite dismally reduced general interest in metals! For goodness sakes, it was only last year that the figure was a hundred percent. SD’s klaxon alarm on that figure is no ‘hype’ by any stretch.

    The increasing number and frequency of signs and moreover, the plain nature of their portents (Asian bank authorities practically spelling out the impending doom) have become particularly noticeable to me this year, which I’ve mentioned often in my posts. This ‘climax’ can’t be deferred very much longer and the thing is on a hair-trigger. When it’s finally tripped by some obscure ‘black swan’, I don’t believe such familiarities as ‘resistance points’ will ‘amount to a hill of beans’. This will be the sort of event that will blow away all the ‘patterns’ people have dedicated all their lives honing meticulous study of.

    Most folks disdain TA because the markets are so centrally and selectively controlled, but on a deeper ‘gut level’, they may have a sense that the magnitude of what’s approaching, thoroughly dwarfs a chart’s capability to prognosticate anything but a rear-view perspective, yielding ‘no assurance of future prospects’.

    Paper Rots, Coin Does Not.

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