lucySD reader Cleburne writes:

Hey Doc, I just wanted to share a few thoughts with you, to see if you’ve felt the same things I’ve been feeling.  I guess it’s brought about by the dual Federal Judge dropping the JPM lawsuit (expected, but not one bit less tragic and disappointing despite, is this what Chilton had been waiting on, before declaring the same thing?)…and the fact that despite GATA, Bill Murphy’s promises of CFTC litigation, Turd’s promises of “hot, explosive, historic” action”, Sprott’s removal of another 17 MILLION oz within 4 months, QE3, and QE4…..
 
Here we languish at $30.  No matter how astronomically wonderful the fundos AND the technical chart look…..all JPM has to do (and do it they have) is pour on another 100 or 200 million ounces of shorts.  That’s all it takes to apparently stop silver prices for the entire world…

 

Silver Bullet Silver Shield Slave Queen Medallion Only $2.99 Over Spot at SDBullion.com!!

Slave The Queen

 

I can’t help but be tarnished a bit(to use good silverbug language) at the fight we’re in.
 
I never could’ve imagined, and certainly never would’ve believed it….if a me from the future had printed up a link showing silver at $30……with a time-stamp nearly 3 weeks after QE4′s announcement.
 
This vid, which has been amazingly accurate, was made two years ago….and predicted QE4′s announcement to within ONE WEEK of it happening.  Amazing.  Yet…the voiceover predicted a far more believable QE4 announcement with silver at $100 at that time, spiking to $170 within 24 hours of the announcement.  But here we are with currency apocalypse and silver is $30.  Again, amazing.  Never before in history, has massive manipulation been so perfected, such an artful science, and so mind-blowingly connected to so many players at once.
 
I know this is a gift, trust me.  You know my mindset well.  I’ve bought silver aggressively for the last two years…and this week, God willing, I’ll make another trip to the local coin shop for a few more dimes…but sooner or later….without any real price evidence to show for it…even the most grisly warrior gets weary.
 
I’m still making the purchases, but the joy and the zeal of the purchases isn’t there.  Sadly.  You know I’m no belly-acher, I’m not a complainer about a bad week, month, or year….but we’re coming up to the two year mark….with nothing to show for it.  I feel like a guy who’s gone to the gym for a hard, full-body work-out these past two years…and yet my physique hasn’t budged in the least.
 
I know there’s massive damage done to the enemy, with the London Whale, and JPM stopping their share buy-back program, and stopping their dividends….etc etc etc….but there needs to be results of the victory in tangible form for us. 
 
It’s gotten to the point where I don’t want to tell others about silver (and I’ve personally been responsible for convincing dozens to do so), and I’m sure they’re sick of being locked in this price action too.
 
Anyway, hopefully I’m not depressing with you with an admission like this, just, when a guy’s in the trenches, I guess it helps to bum a cigarette now and then and share war stories, before trying to shoulder the rifle again and keep from becoming a crater from the powers that be. :)

 

Cleburne:

Regarding silver’s 2 year consolidation…this is nothing new in silver’s bull market.

Check out a 13 year chart of silver’s bull market:

silver chart
Early in it’s bull run, silver peaked in Q1 2004, and didnt surpass that peak until Q1 2006.
Silver then peaked in April-March 2006, and didn’t break out again until Jan 2008.
Silver then peaked in March 2008 with the Bear Stearns collapse, and didn’t break out to new highs until August 2010. Silver then peaked in May 2011. That puts the window for the next break out around March-September of 2013 based on what we’ve seen previously in the bull market.

As much as silver investors might like it to be, this isn’t about beating the banksters. The bullion banks will profit the most in this gold and silver bull market, not small retail investors.  Not only are they manipulating the market to their advantage, but they are professionals.  They will go massively to the buy side precisely when small/retail investors are throwing in the towel from lack of action to the upside, and fear of collapse.

This is not about beating the banksters, this is about preserving your wealth from the devaluation of the US dollar.
It’s important to take a step back and look at the forest. Would you rather have a $20 fiat note from 1930, or a $20 gold double eagle/$20 in silver coins? The devaluation of the currency will accelerate as we near the end game.  Secular bull markets end in massive blow-off tops.  They do not end after 24 month consolidations.  Less than 1% of US investors have even considered the gold and silver markets.  We are still far from a manic top.

Hope this helps, and all the best in 2013.

-Doc

    • patdollard.com/2013/01/n-c-police-lieutenant-warns-of-martial-law-in-early-2013-says-training-has-begun
       
      A NC police LT. says the BATF and US Marshals are recruiting officers to arrest Americans.

  1. I still scratch and claw for ounces. I’ve been buying solar panals. I get silver and electricity too. I did stop long enough to buy a couple of the slave queens from the Doc though! I know it’s been said time after time but it still rings true for me. More so as time goes by. What else is there?

  2. The fundamentals are/were there for the dollar to fall and silver/gold to rise. Any intelligent human being can see that what we did was right, silver should be £40 oz at least. But we are not living in a free market world. Hayek would be crying right now and Keynes laughing his socks off. I read today that the US might be creating a trillion dollar coin and putting Keynes on it. The fundamentals are telling me to buy buy buy, my heart is saying nah and my mind can’t make head or tail of the numbers, they don’t add up. As long as Fiat can be propped up I think silver is a slow burn but above the rate of inflation. I am hoping on 17% this year at least.

  3. Right up my alley Doc. I’m Stacking for Survival and Wealth against the US Dollar, nothing more nothing less. When the Dollar crashes to nearly nothing and can’t buy diddley, I’ll be sitting pretty with my Physical Stack. Lol That’s what it’s all about.

  4. Cleburne writes very well.  I trust Cleburne because the rhetoric and grammar are always well done.  Any troll or agent provocateur would never be able to duplicate elegant English prose.  Cleburne is an idealist artist like myself.  Both of us just need and deserve more FRN debt units at this time in order to prepare ourselves for worldwide economic collapse.

    • SK – I’ve gone through the same thing.  However, with all the reckless spending and unpayable debt we have agreed that hard assets are the place to invest even if that asset is a rental property. 
       
       

    • Avatar of
      IndenturedServant says:

      @sk, I’ve not had that problem yet. Actually I’ve seen sort of the opposite thing happen. We have always tried to save money over our lives but the evolving collapse has accelerated our savings rate to levels we would never have imagined. At first my wife had it in her head that buying PM’s meant your money was spent and gone. Now that she understands the liquid nature of PM’s she is totally on-board with it. I always let her know how many ounces we have and what the current $ value of those ounces are. Without fail, she is always amazed at how much we have saved and frequently comments that she never imagined she would ever save that much money.
      Get her involved by sending her out to yard sales to buy up old silverware and such. You can quickly build a small fortune doing that. Find other ways to give her a sense involvement. She just might surprise you.
      I_S
       

  5. I have been trying to tell people that there could be anywhere from 200-300 trillion dollars out there! The Fed could print 20 trillion a year with only 10% inflation.
    The metals are a good, long term investment. They have enough wiggle room to delay the crisis for years.

  6. I buy mainly from Ebay which used to have gobs of coins for sale, coin dealers are too far away and have too little for sale if any. When coins come in, customers are basically waiting to snap it up. Price and shipping put purchases for me at about +/- 8% over spot but now, what little is left, is commanding 15 – 20% above spot. From June until about two weeks ago, there were plenty of sellers, but now I can hardly find a good deal and the supply is growing smaller by the day.
    The bulls and the bears have to make room for a third beast in the metals game…..WOLVES! The cartel is the grizzly bear and we are the pack of hungry wolves surrounding the bear and nipping at it’s heels from all sides until slowly, the bear falls and the wolves get their hard earned meal. Of course a wolf or two may have been lost in the fight.

  7. Just received Stephen Leeb’s Jan. newsletter. The headline was BUY SILVER. In the article that followed he made the point that silver’s industrial use for solar panels, in addition to it being a monetary metal, will explode as China needs solar for their fuel consumption. Just another reinforcing opinion. He also believes that silver will outperform gold even as he is a strong advocate of the yellow metal. FWIW. Ari

  8. They periodically allow nice run ups like we saw on the 2nd, only to whack it back down. I believe this is done to first entice, then flush the metal holders out due to fear and/or frustration, and not to mention keeping any future stackers from getting in. At some point there will be a sufficient amount of flushing and enough shorts covered to then take it up leaving all those fear sellers out in the cold wondering what the hell happened! They will then be counting the profits they stole from the stackers who fled in fear.

  9. Begin at the begining is usually best. Our mutually elected endeavor to stack and save and stay ahead of the depreciation curve puts us in a league quite literally by ourselves. I for one am quite new to this little soire’, I would have bet the proverbial farm that by now ( especially after the QE4 announcement ) we would certainly be a bit more jovial and with plenty of upward price mobility to show for it…but i can tell you the only thing i know i am mistaken about is the timeline not the outcome. I cant do charts, i dont know much about a naked short or a full tuxedo but what i do know is that all good things come to an end and paying the piper is never an option…its mandatory.  Those who manipulate for the sake of their masters are to be roasted for eternity in the special place reserved for those deserving. My message for all who care to read this is simple. Silver has been, is now, and will always be a tangible valuble asset and a means of facilitating trade and barter. That is the begining and the end. Stack if you can, patience to a fault. This game of manipulation may very well last for the forseeable future and we may not realize any substantive gain, but nothing lasts forever and the masters and their puppets will be forced back under their rocks to see the light of day no more. peace 

  10. Hey Doc, I’ll have you know, as well as all the SD readers….that yesterday during the latest pounding….I stacked Slave Queen rounds from SD Bullion, I also received some other silver as well.  I was happy to do so.

    My words were that my elation had declined, and much of the joy is gone, and that’s true….but I do know that long term this can’t be stopped.  My hopes were simply that a game changer would happen earlier than normal.
    I’m still stacking on a regular basis, just wanted your readers to know this…

  11. Doc,
    Thank you for your website and a source of information on our pitiful economic conditions.
    I do not agree with your description of JPM as being professionals (only in terms of being PAID). They are pathetic human scum that steal the savings/wealth from citizens not only of this country but from people all over the world.
    In conjunction with (being the same pathetic  human scum) govmint, wallstfucks, commiecorps, and the injustice system these assholes are killing people with their game of paper fraud legalized by some clowns in black robes of satan.
    They are attacking everyone’s freedoms who actually contribute to society in the form of real work performed, not financial fucks who screw up the system and then blame the workers.

    • I think it is a little stupid to be mad at JPM.  Their job is to make money.  They are the agents of the Fed.  Everything they do in regards to market manipulation is done with permission from the Fed.  It is paid for by the Fed.  Sanctioned by the Fed and there is nothing you and I can do about it.  JPM will eventually get their come uppance because the Feds tactics will eventually fail.  But, what if the Fed did not do this manipulation?  Our pensions would fail after the stock markets and the bond markets crashed and the dollar collapsed.  We are between a rock and a hard place and we are hoping that owning silver will be the saviour.  A very precarious position to be in.   

    • @Pollokeeper
       
      All true…I just feel safer knowing the “….hard place” is a wall of silver. Let’s face it, holding silver will not save us totally from a hard crash but it will at least break the fall and give us a place to stand for a while, and that while may be long enough to come out the other side reasonably unscathed. I am not mad at JPM, I am mad at the hellish system that we have allowed to be created. I am mad that we allowed the birth of the Fed in 1913. Woodrow Wilson knew he had been hornswoggled by the banksters but the deed was done. 100 years of thievery and control is coming to an end soon enough, that’s obvious. These times require great strength of mind, body and character!

      I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.
      ~ Woodrow Wilson
       
       

  12. Cleburne 61   Your note of being a tired soldier is apt and telling.  Hundreds of hot bloody wars have been fought over silver and gold.  Some are still being waged in hard countries full of desperate men.  We have the luxury of buying our precious metals in safety but the expenditure can be costly, if not in blood most certainly in treasure. You sacrificed a lot to build a stockpile of metals, taking real and substantial risk both from price rigging and governments and corrupt banksters eyeing your stack with mal intent. That group is our real enemy.  It’s easy to jump into the middle of this battle full of piss and vinegar, thinking the battle will be won quickly and easily.  My father and father in law fought in WWII and both said it was a long hard slog with what seemed to be no end in sight.
    One thing I learned in my studies of history, war and strategic battles is that when things seem the the most glum and dim, when the ‘good guys and gals’ like us feel nearly defeated at the end of a long battle, it’s that time when the enemy is also at his lowest. If we don’t have the financial high ground with our large number of forces, we most cartainly have the moral high ground and the knowledge to see out over the terrain into the enemies base camp.
      The army that gives the last bit of fight is usually the one who prevails in the battle.  And this precious metals war is one that involves real sacrifice. The emeny is not superior in arms, men or materiel.  We have resources of our own. The bad guys have made such strategic and tactical mistakes that they are far more likely to defeat themselves by killing their own troops with friendly fire, stretch their supply lines to the breaking point and spread their resources over a battlefield far to large to manage.  There are no Pattons, Eisenhauers and other warriors on their side. There are plenty of quizlings and mataharis willing to sell them out or go rogue and provide us with needed intel to wage this battle
    I don’t think I stretched this metaphor of battle and war to much since we are in a currency war that is turning hot.  I know you will stay they course. Your will is steely as is the willing of the rest of our loyal troopers in the PM battle field.  My best to you.  The slog is worth it and we are gaining precious ground that must never be given back.

    • Great post AGX!!
      Even the little soldier in the war on silver who buys 10 mercury dimes takes that much away from the bad guys. It adds up and death from 1,000 cuts is the result.
       
      Keep on stacking while it is cheap and available!

  13. Dear Cleburne
    Thanks for your post, my sentiments exactly.
     I have been all (100%) in since Dec. 0f 2011. Even to day, I’m up almost 100%, but like you very discouraged. Being my own Central Banker, selling only to subsidies my SS to pay bills, I research the world daily on how it effects PM’s. It has become a full time job. I have come to the conclusion, charts in my opinion mean very little, as long as you have an uncontrollable criminal bank Cartel manipulation. The CFTC is a treasonous JOKE! along with all the rest of our Treasonous government agency, i.e. FED DOJ. etc. Business as usual, till there is a total financial meltdown and collapse and social civil Bloody WAR. As i see it, the best we can hope for is that China becomes the next world GOLD backed currency and NO MORE US PETROL DOLLAR, I think that will be soon. Their smart, just waiting for the US to start or join into another WW.  Bottom line, where do you put your hard earn savings? My choice is still PM’s esp. silver and in YOUR POSSESSION. I hope I live long enough to enjoy the massive transfer of wealth.(62now)

  14. TPTB “inject” unatural market forces and volitility to profit, to frustrate and to keep the illusion of a free market and sound currency. Knowing it for what is makes it easier to weather all of it. When ones brains and gut feelings are in agreement trust yourself!

  15. What can I say? Some have the stomach for it and many don’t. True stackers know what is going on and in it for the long haul. Looks like one needs to reexamine their objectives and quit looking for that fast and easy buck.

  16. It is easy to get discouraged.  I am way underwater on my silver purchase.  I will not sell my silver at these levels.  Period.  I have definitely quit advising others to purchase silver.  I am not a financial advisor.  I would not tell someone not to sell their silver either.  I am not selling mine.  I have however decided to looking into selling some silver if it moves into the 40′s maybe 45 or higher and I think there is a good chance of this happening.  I will then buy gold, especially if the silver/gold ratio tightens up some.  Now that I have been a silver owner for awhile I see the value of having a 50-50 mix of gold and silver coins.  I have decided that this is no get rich scheme for the common man.  It just isn’t.  And, don’t use money you might need in the next several years so you can ride out these disappointing times.  It would be hugely demoralizing to be forced to sell silver at a loss due to short term cash needs.  Don’t fall into that trap.  For the stacker, it is better not to look at the price everyday.  We are not traders.  Don’t put yourself thru that.  Those are my thoughts.

  17. @Cleburne61 I’ve always liked your mercury and in fact it influenced me in choosing my own avatar. I, like you, grew weary in the trenches so at this point all the hype is just another wolf cry falling on very deaf ears. It’s no longer a fight to me. Instant gratification is always nice, though any serious rise in metals could spell global disaster. But, while the manipulation far outweighs technicals to the point that any chart is worthless, and while we obviously can’t rely on some regulator to expose a scandal which could very well change the world we live in for the worst, we can’t deny the fact that nearly no one in the US invests in physical metals.
    Some may say they’re having a harder time locating PMs (and for what they used to pay because the price is going up), but I’m here to tell you. That coin shop in Austin I’ve talked about from time to time still has 900 silver eagles after more than three days of availability. That’s right. Those eagles just sit on the shelf in a metropolitan area of 1.8 million people with no one knocking down their door. In fact, if only one one thousandth of one percent (one of every 100,000 people) were stackers like me, there would be 18 people lined up to buy those eagles, yet they’re still on the shelf (there were 1000 but I bought 100). Are we one or two in a million??? It appears this week we are! Furthermore, those eagles I bought were right out of some grandpa’s safe and sold to the LCS by his foolish heir, so supply was not affected since no coins were removed from the market that hadn’t already been removed when the coins were brand new off the press. 
    Does this mean there’s no demand and no shortage in supply so the price stays low? From a stacker to a stacker, the answer is yes. We just don’t affect the price yet. A much larger force does, but when the time comes for America to realize the value of precious metals because the COMEX defaults or because the price suppression is exposed or for whatever reason, there will be a huge increase in demand and price with little availability. I just don’t see how it can be any other way so keep converting those less than desirable $20′s from 1930 and relax. There’s no point in getting beat up in a battle rather than quietly waiting for the known outcome of the war you don’t have to suffer through to win.

  18. Okay, I depend on Social Security and a few other dollars to make ends meet. Yes I do have a nice stack of both Silver and Gold. Reviewing King World News and listening to Eric Sprott who has more to lose that all of us here put together including THE DOC, I  think it would do all readers here to see what Eric has to say. Eric Sprott is in my my mind, the smartest guy in the business and what he states here may steer us all away from being negative and to stay the course.
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/4_Billionaire_Eric_Sprott_-_Fed_Has_No_Exit_Plan_%26_There_Is_No_Exit.html
    Best Regards to all,
    Ranger from Texas

    • Nothing against you or any other Social Security recipient/dependent … but damn you.  You ponzi suckers and your parents voted in a system that taxes me insanely high to fund your retirement.  I won’t even get real inflation adjusted amounts back from my heavy tax burden since I started working.  This whole Ponzi will likely collapse within a decade…. more than 25 years before under current law I’ll be able to get anything back out.
      My generation and my children’s generation seem to share these same views.  That almost guarantees the collapse.  Good riddance, what day that will be.

    • The social security issue has very little to do with the collapse of our dollar and the manipulation of precious metals.  Our immoral, corrupt, unethical, imbecile government has everything to do with it.  

    • I’m 12 years from retirement and I’ve known since I was 15 that I’d never see a dime from Socialist Insecurity.

      The Federal Govt has taken away our ability to save (I’d say our Natural Right to save) in two ways: a Ponzi scheme in Soc Sec and debt money in Federal Reserve usury debt nothings.  With ObamaDoesntCare they will steal our ability to take care of ourselves.  If they take our guns we won’t be able to fend for ourselves.

      They really do want serfs.  They must realize that lies are no longer believed and cannot keep them in power for long.

    • pollokeeper: Yeah you’re right.  But unfortunately our imbecile govt seemingly reflect the people who actually vote for the system.
      moopst: I totally agree, it is a natural right to be able to “hoard” our possessions … including whatever we deem to be of value: Gold, silver, debt money, dirty pirate hookers, whatever.  Cheers to being awake!

    • Social Security would be fine for the next 100 years if the government would pay back the IOU’s it placed in the fund after stealing money from it.

  19. Buying Silver IS about beating the banksters!  It is the banksters who created the present currupt financial system that is crippling the whole world, so what is wrong with fighting back against them?  If one buys Silver purely for selfish reasons of financial gain, one can easily be discouraged under the presence of so much manipulation.  But the cause of buying Silver is what gives it proper meaning.  Every man must have a cause to live by.  Unlike any other kind of action, buying Silver stands out as the most unique way of fighting back against the present corrupt and immoral system.  (Voting does nothing, because THEY count the votes…)
     
    * Buying Silver is a ‘vote of no confidence’ on the present financial system.  It is a way of letting it be known the present financial system is not trust-worthy.
    * Buying Silver is the greatest form of protest.  It is letting everyone know that the debt-based fiat paper money system must be abandoned, and a sound and honest money system must be restored.
    * Buying Silver is the most patriotic thing to do.  Those who buy Silver are helping to preserve the wealth of the nation, because a nation’s wealth is in its citizens.  A government over an impoverished nation has no wealth.  Why else is China encouraging its citizens to purchase Gold and Silver as investments?
    * Buying Silver ensures freedom.  There is a cost to freedom.  Under the present corrupt financial system, the people live under the constant crutch of financial repression and under constant debt.  The economic and labor market is thus corrupted.  With a sound monetary system, money would have proper value again, leading to soundness in the economic and labor markets.  Money is a store of labor.  Debt is slavery.
    * Buying Silver is not an expense and can be considered to cost nothing.  When someone buys Silver, they are merely performing a currency exchange.  They are merely exchanging bad money for good money, money that can be truly used for preservation of wealth.  Therefore, it is much wiser to save money in the form of Silver than in just about anything else (even Gold, since Silver is presently so undervalued relative to Gold).
     
    The most important thing for a person to understand why having Silver as savings is so critical in the present time is to understand why money really is, and how money affects every aspect of human activity, and thus it is the most important physical basis for a society (a civilization).  Once this is understood, it will be easy to understand the corruption and immorality of the present fiat paper money system, that not only affects the financial world, but every aspect of people’s daily lives as well.  All areas of life are negatively impacted: finance, health, education, technology, social norms, art, music, food, history, science, family life, media, construction, transportation, energy, etc, etc.  If someone thinks about it long enough, they can see how the present monetary system–leading to concentration of power and control–has enabled all said institutions to be corrupted,

    • I view the holding of Federal Reserve Debt, aka “notes”, aka ones and zeros, aka that green money in your wallet as an immoral and treasonous act.  Unfortunately this immoral govt has signed a deal with the devil to essentially impoverish the people with a currency that by the nature of the banking system has built in usury.
      I am a natural born person.  I am not a slave.  I will not submit to a criminal and immoral system set up to punish the people who do the most work, struggle the hardest, and get taxed the most.
      That is why I own silver.
       
      Sure you could say my silver purchases are a “vote against the system” or a “form of protest” or “patriotic” …. but for me it is a moral act.  I keep as few “dollars”  (whatever the F*ck that means) in my credit union accounts as possible.  I don’t need to fund the immoral “beast”

    • Pleb - 
      your points r spot on…i made this video to remind not just the true believers like the two of us but those wavering in resolve and faith why this path has been chosen…
      pass it along not for my edification but to comfort those of questionable faith….cheers

       
       
       
       

  20. Ignore silver for a moment.  Look at guns.
     
    Immediately before and after the Obama re-election guns were already setting record sales numbers.  Ammunition was in moderate supply.  I could find pretty much any of my specialty ammo that I like.
    Post Sandy Hook, within days, pretty much every gun store in my town was sold out of AR-15s.  Fast forward four days later and pretty much every gun capable of carrying more than 10 rounds in a detachable magazine was sold out.  On this same day, you could not find any PMAG 30-round magazines of generation 2 or generation 3 — ANYWHERE –.  No online retailer had inventory or backorder available.  No physical shop in town had large capacity XDM, Glock, or AR-15 magzines.
    To make matters worse, you cannot find M855 5.56 ammo (“penetrator”) anywhere.  Just about the only 5.56 loads you can find now days are tracer rounds that are expensive as hell.  Looking at .223 ammo, you see prices going up as supply has yet to meet demand.  The only affordable ammo in .223 that you can find is usually steal cased from Russia.  My ability to source the specialty 9mm ammo has stopped too, since nobody has any inventory of it left.  Sure you can still occasionally find a small 50rd box of FMJ 9mm or the really expensive and useless frangible ammo, but good luck finding a good defensive ammo in bulk.
    Fast forward a little longer.  Generation 2 30 round PMAGs  are now selling for $60+ when they were selling $12-15 prior to Sandy Hook.  No major retailer even has PMAGs in stock and most retailers admit they have at least a 3 month waiting on backorder with the manufacturer.  Second hand prices are sure to keep going up.
    I had an order for 1000 rounds of brass FMJ 223 from Cabelas.  Guess what?  They pushed the backorder date by another 35 days because Winchester can’t supply enough to meet demand and they let me know they might have to push it even farther out.
    All my close friends and acquaintances already owned firearms before the Sandy Hook event.  How many bought in the rush after it?  None.  Not a single new firearm was purchased by those I know that already own small arms.  Talk with a gun store clerk and you’ll discover that almost every purchase has been from first timers.  That means they need ammo (typically up to a 1000 rds per gun on average) and hopefully training on how to safely use and clean their firearm.
    What this all tells me is that the ammo shortage may last far longer than anyone anticipates.  Demand for PMAGs may remain high for months or years, regardless of if anything occurs with new federal laws.  (None of which I will ever comply with)
    How does this relate to silver?  Well, like silver… the market has had enough ammo and guns to meet demand for the past few years (2007/2008 had a short ammo shortage).  Overnight demand went up shockingly high when only a small fraction of a percent of the population realized that they may need to have their own personal protection from tyrannical governments.
    Silver’s moment in the sun has yet to come… but don’t worry… it will and you’ll look back on your frustrated posting and laugh.

    • Side story: The day after Sandy Hook, I asked my father: “Hey, are you finally going to buy a new decent rifle since they’ll probably try to leverage this to prohibit any useful self-defense weapon at the federal level?”  and you know what his response was?
      “Well, this kind of thing happens every year or two.  Especially after elections.  They aren’t going to be able to do anything, so I’m not really concerned about getting one now.”
      I said one sentence in my reply: “That is called normalcy bias.”
      Well, only a few weeks later he cannot buy one in a retail shop for any reasonable price.  If you can find one instock, even previously cheap AR-15s are selling for huge markups now.  You can’t get any decent ammo, so your gun is just a good paper weight.
      Those of us that have watched details of Sandy Hook have lots of reasons to question the official story.  It conflicts with itself so many times, you’d have to be an idiot to think any of it actually occurred as stated because facts never conflict.  Some of the details may be true of that event, but when facts, videos, eye witness interviews, and interviewees change stories… you have to question what really happened.
      I have no doubts that silver will be a similar story.  There will be attempts to villify silver “hoarders” and prevent export of physical silver (and gold) outside the United States.  The concocted stories will be grand and clever to turn people on their own neighbors…. be warned my fellas.

    • Your points are well taken and make sense.  Guns and ammo prices are not to my knowledge being manipulated right now.  Prices are going up solely based on high demand and short supply.  There is high demand for silver right now, but we are not seeing the corresponding rise in price.  I do agree with you though, eventually demand will defeat the Feds best efforts and we will see rises in price that none of us right here, right now could ever have imagined.  It is painful during the waiting game though.

    • Pollokeeper, you’re right about manipulation.  I know for a fact there is massive and organized manipulation to depress both gold and silver prices.  The only thing that I can see making it possible for so long is that there used to be a rather large stock.  Well that stock is essentially dried up, so now the manipulation depends on flow.  Flow is drying up as we’re starting to see here on Silver Doctors posts regarding mine production and mining costs.  Bankers are increasingly leveraging up the metals markets.  They’re attempting to gain physical availability of metal through ETFs to help on their quest to manipulate.
      I have no doubt that silver is winning the war.  Its quickly moving into “used” states throughout the world and never to be recycled back into the system.  Ultimately the physical wins this battle, but until that day comes we need to remember something very very very important.
      METALS PRICES ARE SET IN FIAT CURRENCIES.  FIAT CURRENCIES CAN BE PRINTED ON A RESERVE ACCOUNT AT A CENTRAL BANK OR ANY OTHER BANK.  THE CENTRAL BANKS WILL LOAN MONEY TO SUPPORT MANIPULATIVE PRICE ACTION TO AN INFINITE DEGREE.  INFINITE MONEY CAN ALWAYS BE USED TO SUPPRESS METAL PRICES; THUS MEANING THAT ANY PRICE CAN BE SET UNTIL THE PHYSICAL “FLOW” STOPS COMPLETELY DUE TO METAL EXHAUSTION.

  21. Well, don’t spend ALL your money on precious metals just a large percentage. Take the rest and go and enjoy life as it exists now. Because later, well, we all know where this world is headed and it ain’t pretty.
     
    I think most on this board will not be throwing their arms up in glee for very long when gold and silver do take off. Astronomically rising PMs prices are going to have the concomitant ugliness in the geopolitical arena.
     
    Life will take a turn for the worse when the monetary systems fail. It’s been awhile since we had a nice ugly world war and time is not on our side.

    • I’ve wondered for a long time whether the current paradigm can end without a war or massive collective pain being inflicted upon the general population of dollar hoarders. It is likely the USD currency reserve status will be brought into question this round vs. the 1981 super spike in the metals. The entire world has now operated long enough via fiat currency, and the insiders so entrenched, and the respective populous so passive and dumbed down; that I suspect a reordering of the current fiat system without an outright collapse is most likely.  This is during our lifetime…
      The vast majority will simply take their lumps and carry on; or ‘slave on’ into the new order…  with the emerging economies’ currencies strengthening and the USD defacto-relegated to an ‘also ran’ currency eroding towards 1/4 of current purchasing power when the dust settles, similar to the 20th century path of the Pound. Precious metals will allow those in the know to discreetly transfer wealth forward while the bought and paid for world-wide MSM plays its diversionary PR campaign through the entire charade to the masters’ delight. The govn’ts and central banks are going to hold on and I just don’t see the bitter end in sight until global resource shortages finally overwhelm; perhaps another 20-30 yrs out.
      How else to explain: it is already FACT that a holder of pre-1964 junk silver commands approx 25x face in purchase power, taken ZERO risk, and yet the vast majority STILL think silver is a bad ‘investment’; lol!???? I pray we never see the HEH moves and the societal breakdown we all fear… I expect the cabal is going to ‘manage ‘for a while the comman man slowly boils in the pot.
       

    • Silverseeker, this is how fragile the fiat system is.  If the US were to abolish the Fed and not honor its debt notes, then overnight the dollar is worthless.  If the Fed says arbitrarily “We won’t honor electronic debts any more”, then guess what happens to 98% of all [debt] “money” in existance?  VAPORiZED.
      Right now I think we’re bearing witness to the most unstable currency the planet has ever seen….  its collapse will not only be epic but extremely bloody and violent.

  22. No need to cry. We are fighters and we are tough fighters. We have seen even worse times. The best thing we can do right now – is to recruit new people to our party.
    Now is an excellent time to do so. We must explain to new people the truth about silver. And we need to work actively with the owners of the paper silver. Now is the perfect time to get out of paper silver without paying taxes on capital gains. I mean, to get out of paper silver and buy physical silver right now. This year I cited five people. They bought more than 2k ounces of silver in the form of coins. And I will be lead to silver coins more people this year. One of them had ever thought about buying silver. But now he wants to buy silver at 100k Euros. And he has friends who also have money. It will be a good example for many of them.

    He asked me: is it possible in the future, that silver be cheaper? I said – yes. But only temporarily. Maximum of one year. He asked why. I said, Mike, do you believe that the bread, meat and milk will eventually (in the future) be cheaper? Then why do you think that silver will be cheaper? And he understood all and he believed.

    If you decide to invest in silver, you need to strictly follow the rule of three. Rule of three years says: Buy silver and forget about it for three years – after three years you will be right.

    The situation with the silver right now does not look too bad, if you compare it with my English.

    • Your English is fine and you are spot on about recruiting more people to the silver cause.  The more we have on our side, the fewer who can be manipulated into vilifying us for our foresight into the problem that has been 100+ years in the making.
       
      P.S. I especially appreciate it when English as a second language folks like yourself post.  I got tired of the mainstream media’s lies back in the ’70′s and picked up shortwave listening to listen to the official lies of other governments!  I figured at least there would be a fact or two that I could find out that the likes of Liberal Dan (who’s Rather biased) would never talk about.  So I’m used to Dutch accents (Radio Netherlands was one of my favorites though they are very liberal), English accents, Russian, Japanese, etc.  I can even tell the difference between an Australian and a New Zealander accent.

  23. Avatar of
    IndenturedServant says:

    Cleburne, I’ve been sick of waiting for the collapse since 2009. Like many, I expected things to progress much faster than they have. At first I was disappointed in this but I’ve come to view it as a gift in disguise. I’ve now had five years + to prepare for the long slow collapse that is likelier to happen than a quick one. I’ve been able to stack more ounces at much lower prices than I expected and make numerous other preps over that same time.
    I get a chuckle out of those that keep hoping for a massive price breakout. What are they going to do when it happens? Sell their stack for fiat cash? They act like PM’s are a get rich quick plan.
    Each of us has our own reasons for investing in PM”s. Mine is quite simple. I just want to transfer what little wealth I have from this side of the crash to whatever comes next. That’s it. It may come in handy for other things like barter along the way, but the primary goal is wealth preservation. I’m not looking to get rich either. Being rich will not buy me a happier or more meaningful life. I already have those things. However, if I happen to end up rich as a result of PM investing, I’ll cross that bridge when it happens.
    This crash is not over by a long shot. Over the last few years I’ve come to realize that this mathematically certain collapse is likely to take 20-25 years. We are only five years in. It will likely end in a world war or multiple civil wars but it is going to be a long, slow ride to the bottom with a number of spine jarring bumps along the way like the 2008 crash. This realization has quite oddly allowed me to make peace with it and focus on preparing for it. 
    I_S
     
     
     

    • Ranger, My gripes with SS are no different than what I suppose yours are: the systematic ponzi and theft from it by politicians.  It wasn’t the current generation receiving SS that I blame, its more the parents of that generation.  Unfortunately the vote of the current SS recipients does not reflect the vote of the people under 30 years old now.  Its important to realize that when we opine regarding SS, there are huge generational shifts in emotion and sense of fairness.

  24. ive been buying eagles, maples and whatever silver coins are cheapest at the the time I have fiat spare for 18 months now and in that time have bought 419oz. I have never had so much money saved in my life, ever. I just recieved my first purchase of 2013, 2 antelopes with another 2 next week. I dont think of it as spending money, rather converting it. if those charts play out then I probably have between 2 and 7 months before silver starts its next major leg up and so im going to buy all I can in that time. The move up WILL happen, the ptb are just playing with our minds. I doubt silver will go below 29, infact it isnt staying below 30 for more than a day try as they might. Stack stack stack

  25. DON’T GIVE UP! THE SCUM IS AT WAR WITH US. REMEMBER THIS QUOTE FROM SUN TZU: “TRUE EXCELLENCE IN WARFARE LIES IN GETTING YOUR ENEMY TO SURRENDER BEFORE GOING TO BATTLE”. WAKE UP ANGRY AND PREPARED FOR WAR EVERY MORNING. LOSING TO THE SCUM IS UNTHINKABLE!

  26. Being married to an idea is dangerous because if you are wrong you lose big time. Silver should be a hedge not the only position you hold. If you are only long silver (and have no other investments/assets) then you are either going to hit a massive home run or miss out on every other investment opportunity over the next decade. Even if you hit the massive home run you’re pining for, you will lose it all in your next investment because your mentality of “all in or nothing” will destroy you. Precious metals not going up is in everyone’s interest because it will show that confidence remains in the market place. If confidence remains, l will likely be able to maintain my job. If confidence is lost and l lose my job, PMs will rise offsetting my loss. Make your hand a ‘heads l win tails you lose’ and you will never go wrong. Hedge my silverbugs, hedge.

  27. I’ve been stacking for a long time.  When I first started, I thought the end was imminent.  My friend Bob Chapman used to always remind me and the audience on my radio show that the end collapse would be a lot longer in coming than we generally could imagine.  While we were often inclined to think in terms of months until everything went critical, he would remind us that years were the more appropriate yardstick and to keep preparing because, in the end, Yes, the end game would be upon us.  As time has passed, we’ve seen prices in the grocery store climb a little, at the hardware store, a little more, at the gas pumps, just bounce around like always, although with a slightly higher bias.  The dollar is being obsoleted around the world, slowly and surely, and most of my friends are clearly experiencing increasing hardship with each passing month.  So, I have NO DOUBT that we will experience only WORSE times going forward.
    That said, I am a bit relieved that metals prices haven’t yet gone to the moon and the financial system has not yet imploded and reduced my neighborhood to a killing field with starving zombie hoards pillaging and plundering in desperate abandon.  While all of us here may await anxiously a massive breakout in the value of our stacks, let’s not forget that when silver cracks $100 or wherever it heads, this will herald the beginning of the end of life as we know it for most of us.  While we may lament the criminal manipulative abandon of those elements holding the prices down for the moment, there will come a day when said control slips from their grasp.
    And when that day comes, I have a bad feeling that the exploding price of our stacks may provide but a bittersweet victory and less comfort than we imagine once we take a look outside the windows where we live and see the gathering storm of hell gaining fury all around us.
    Be thankful that the crooks are working overtime to buy US time to prepare yet further, and use this calm before the storm to check, recheck and check again, your plans and provisions for surviving in a Mad Max world.  Every day, I appreciate having a bit more time to improve and harden my survival protocols still further against what is looking like increasingly dark and hard times…

    • Yes, they are working hard to suppress PM prices…to make money, support currency baskets, to eke out more time to buy more MBS’s and control distressed real estate, clear their sheets? Why the holding pattern? Are they expecting a development which upon they can act and reverse the massive dollar printing?
       
      Could we see the next Fed Chairman unleash inflation based on some calamity catalyst, raise interest rates, and force dollars back into Treasuries thus supporting the Dollar? Will a strong dollar hurt us more than a vanquished  dollar? Will a new currency hurt PM’s? Would a high interest rates help PM’s?

  28. If you are so concerned about your investment – lighten up! Why not sell 20~30% of your holdings so that you still have exposure, can buy again cheaper at lower prices (if they fall/if you want the additional exposure), can buy when the metal breaks out (so have a guaranteed trade).

  29. JR, personally, I think the notion of trading the stacks is unwise. simply because one doesn’t trade their fire-insurance policy for the possibility of a cheaper one.  And, the transaction premium hits mean you’ve got to see a significant price change go your way ON YOUR TIMETABLE.  If you mistime your trade, you will succumb to the same fate as those foolish enough to trade at the COMEX CASINO!  If you need to raise cash, then the metals can provide that and will have returned on their insurance role in your portfolio.  If you insist on speculating on the metals prices, you can use SLV or it’s equivalent as long as you stay sharp and leave no positions open over a weekend!  lol!

  30. SE – what l was not advocating was trading. What l was saying was that in order to be in a winning position more quickly it may be better to reduce exposure now (not sell everything) and only re-entering when momentum turns solidly your way (after $37.50 has been broken on heavy volume at a weekly close) or the person gains further conviction in buying the metal. If you cannot afford to buy and hold for years you are in the wrong game. The first aim of investing is to maintain your capital, not to gain profit. If the person who wrote in to the Doc is so fearful about his/her position in silver, then lightening up will allow them to remain in the game and have some room to maneuver. 

  31. There does seem to be somewhat of an impasse in the ongoing currency war involving Silver right now.  I would rather be at a stalemate in a currency war for two years than deadlocked on a battlefield taking hostile fire for two years.   Don’t give up the siege.  More than half the planet makes only enough to survive.  We are fortunate to be involved in this market.  

  32. I love the stacker mentality. Even when they are beaten down, they don’t sell; They just slow their purchases!!! HA!!! Not sure who is actually selling physical silver, but they must be questioning their sanity right now. They’ve sold their physical and “invested” their profits in something else which is some derivative of the US Treasury bond? You are either on the PM side of the fence, or the debt based ponzi side. I know which side I prefer.

    Stay long; Stay strong.

  33. the pockets of jpm and usb and goldmansachs are so vast that no market in the west is now an honest market … price rigging is in every market … there is no free market … options trading and all forms of derivatives have far too much control on the real market … when you can sell more paper silver in 5 minutes than is mined in one year you know the market is no longer linked to reality….

  34. DOC said it best “Less than 1% of US investors have even considered the gold and silver markets. We are still far from a manic top.”
    To me this about sums up many years of FEAR in any market. Wealth Preservation is what is all about at the moment.

  35. I have ceased to be able to purchase Ag for two years now, because I ‘retired’ from the corporate (geologist) system and it’s become hard to find work (for FRN debt) outside of it.  No matter, though, because I have become an expert dumpster-diver and scrounge.  The dumpsters typically feed my flock of chickens and gaggle of goats.  The chickens love expired meat and bread, and make many good eggs.  The eggs can be given away, eaten or bartered for other value.  STOP thinking in terms of dollars and START manifesting commodities in your life.  Dollars are digital deceptions.  Eggs are incredible, edible food units.

  36. Beau Tox Your post warmed my heart. You’ve learned how to scrounge from the cast offs of our overfew society. I love scrounging. Cruising the thrift stores and garage sales for good deals is my way of finding treasure. Some of us throw away more in a day than some people will possess in a year. It’s amazing how little you can live on if you neck down the consumerist impulses and get close to the ground. Eggs are great food

    • @silverdagger

      because the ratio 15-1 has always been based on tungsten filled gold! :-D 
       
      seriously, the small positions might sell some sometimes – they could need the cash for something else. And demand hasn’t been decreasing the last two years. These investors have a more active way of managing their wealth. They sometimes buy then sell then buy etc… Don t forget that if they have held their metals for a while, they can cash out a nice profit.
      but the large positions are mainly on hold.

  37. Good response Doc. The idea that the next leg should be this year is certainly lucid enough. The issue I think with the Silver scene is that you can’t go 3 feet without someone forecasting an imminent explosion. Couple that with the fact that no explosion, let alone sustained rally has been seen since the mayday massacre (sustained is the key word) and it is a recipe for frustration. It has become crystal clear that by being on the side we are, we are literally fighting the entire system. We know, in theory, that we will and should win, but they’ll throw the book at us.

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