DFR writes:

My first investment out of college was Dell computer in early 90′s after its first split, and I’ve also hit the yahoo and etrade runs. My last really good investment was FRPT at 1.97 and it ran to 30.00. Not saying I always sold at the high but I came out pretty good.
I never felt the need or cause to invest in silver until about a year ago.  The cause is this USA is goin nuckin futs- and I decided to hedge 40%.  We could go into a diatribe about the collapse coming but we all know whats happening.
I’m not a rookie to market investing,  but I am to silver.   I completed several months of silver research and finally felt comfortable pulling the trigger when we hit the $20′s.
Of the research done prior to me buying, the short manipulation aspect was a concern. I accepted the risk reward of the naked shorting and the “raids” I am now seeing and experiencing firsthand.  So be it… I’m in for the long haul now.
With that being said my question to all you experienced silver guys isWhen a raid is conducted have you noticed a trend that news favorable for a spike in silver is forth coming or is the raid just a concerted random occurrence?
Thanks in advance, DFR

 

DFR- welcome to SD and congrats on making the wise decision to invest a portion of your portfolio into silver.

As to the timing of cartel raids of the metals…the cartel used to raid gold and silver nearly monthly exactly on the release of the NFP on the first Friday of the month.  This was an occurrence that became so regular that you could nearly set your clock by it.  Around Feb 29th of this year (dubbed the leap day massacre), they shifted their MO and began raiding whenever Bernanke was making a public speech or an FOMC statement was released.  That has continued over the past 8 months with all but maybe one exception.
There are also often smaller daily raids that occur…they change their MO regularly, but the cartel’s favorite times to raid the metals is typically 4am on the London open, 8:15-8:30 EST on the COMEX open, 10am EST, the last 10 seconds before the close (they knocked .10 off silver on 3 separate occasions just last week in the last few seconds before the close) and then during access market thin trading as occurred today (Monday).  The routine changes, but it’s typically one of these times.

During the 2008 smash when silver traded into the $8 range, I recall 4 or 5 occasions in which I advised BullRun exactly when to lock his physical silver purchase beforehand based solely on cartel chart patterns, and on almost every instance that minute turned out to be the absolute low for the entire day.

Regarding news, the metals are also often raided immediately prior to what would be expected to be massively bullish events for gold and silver.
For example, last November when the Swiss pegged the CHF to the Euro, gold was treated to a $50 waterfall-like vertical decline exactly 5 minutes prior to the announcement.  Just last week we saw the same occur with the flash smash of gold and silver less than 5 minutes prior to the announcement of QE3.

Becoming familiar with their patterns can allow a silver investor to take advantage of a cartel raid to accumulate more physical ounces for the same stack of fiats.

Best of luck, and you really have nothing to fear from the manipulation if you’re in it for the long haul as you state.  The cartel are operating a managed retreat in gold and silver, both metals are headed much higher long term.

-Doc

  1. There is a anti-silver-club out there with intentions to smash silver value down in order to support there fiat rigging game afloat. m Charles Savoie  wrote a book about the fight to keep silver prices down.  Not sure of price, nor the question why it is not on best sellers list.  Only available on line called: THE-SILVER-STEALERS.PDF. Made in January 2011.  Check it out with 446 pages.  Once we have some education, the secret will be exposed.  Enjoy the reading.
    mrflatbroke2012

  2. There are no raids, it is a controlled environment.  Dealers sell paper contracts when they can profit, they will go short/long when profitable.  This occurs in every market/stock/commodity, always has, always will.  Calling a weekly raid is just drama.

    • you are mistaken.
      and profit is exactly the key to understanding why.
      a normal seller will try to maximize the proceeds of the silver they are selling.
      but when someone dumps massive quantities of silver in a very short time frame, and chooses the thinly-traded early london hours to dump, it is clear they don’t care about making money, they only want to change the price.
      someone concerned with profit would spread the sale out a little bit, to maximize the return on each silver contract sold, to give the market time to absorb the sales. and they would do it when there are more buyers around, like the middle of the comex trading day.
       

    • jiggysmb@

      When you say, “Dealers sell paper contracts when they can profit, they will go short/long when profitable,” you’re actually shooting yourself in the foot rather than proving your argument.  Go look up the trading history for Feb 29, 2012 and notice the size of that raid, where well over the equivalent of the entire annual mine supply of silver in its paper doppelganger form was dumped on the market.  No dealer with a large inventory seeking liquidation for profit bombs a market with that kind of volume nearly all at once.

      Now, granted, not all downdrafts are cartel raids.  Being able to tell the difference between a raid and normal profit taking or distribution is an art, not a science.  But raids most certainly happen – OFTEN, and indeed it’s sometimes possible to identify them with a high degree of certainty on a weekly basis.

    • If you look back at chart history and plot the times raids occur you will see a pattern. Those times are to regular to be dealers dumping paper for a profit.

  3. quad witching days, option expiration days, rollover days are common.  This is to wipe out the sellers on options.  Low volume times like May 11 also helps.  There are probably other times, but I’m not sure I see a clear pattern with those.

    Chart pattern-wise, I’ve noticed that if there is a very strong upward trend, they usually wait until it has exhausted and an end of trend pattern forms (head and shoulders, double tops, wedges, etc).  Reason being is that traders will move their stops just below key pattern areas.  Lower recent volume is also key.  Once they drive price down to this area with enough contracts, the long’s stops are triggered which cascades the selling. 

    If you look at the 5 minute chart from this past Friday, you see a double top after a good rally that started at ~8:10am EST. The selloff started at ~10:45am EST on higher than average volume, but once it got below the low between the two high’s, volume increased (the longs liquidating and everyone recognizing it’s a raid are now going short along with the cartel) and price dives.  Upward trends seem more common than if the market is just wandering sideways although I’ve seen this happen as well.  The reason I think is because the recent trend has not had a chance to establish a new base.

    So, key dates, look for end of trend type of patterns and watch volume pick that drives price into common areas where stops are placed.  If you start to see volume accelerate after, there’s probably going to be a big move downward.

  4. Here is an odd thought.
    We have the cartel who’s schenanigans are well known. 
    It would be fun to create the anti-Cartel—call it the Smartel, short for Smart as Hell Cartel. 
      Everytime the price of silver starts to rise 50 cents or more we dive in and buy anything we can from the store fronts and bullion sellers like Doc. If silver is in such short supply that everyone knows that fact, this might present a supply squeeze.  
     With tens of thousands of physical buyers competing aggressively for good prices and inadvertently competing against the paper shorts, we might be able to support and even boost the price, preventing  it from being knocked down to a degree that allows for any sort of paper profit. 
    Of course that would probably get the attention of Gensler and Chilton. Before you know if the Blue Meanies would be knocking on our doors.  However, if enough peopple bought 10, 50 or 100 ounces on a nearly simultaneous basis using the silver spot price as a floor bid mechanism, it might work.  Even though the JPM book can marshal billions in dry powder for their paper trades maybe this could work.  Anyone want to weigh in this or am I just pipedreaming?

    • With paper silver oversold something like 50oz (or more, forgot where I saw the actual amount) per oz of available silver this will have little impact.

  5. I have bought and accumulated silver since the mid 70′s. There is no way to predict what the price will be and it is a waste of time to wait for a low in the cycle that may or may not occur. Charts are only useful to reference the past and I just leave the predictions to the psychos, I mean psychics. I have three 100 ounce bars I bought for $600 each. Didn’t need no expert to tell me I needed to buy. It was the normal price at the time. I have always bought when I had the funds and, on average, have gained continuously.  Accumulating physical silver is nothing like playing the stock market. There are no experts from what I can tell and I have been keeping up with the market for almost 40 years. It may seem foolish, at times, to hoard vast amounts of silver, but the way to look at it is you are saving and acquiring wealth, slowly, but surly in the best form available. When, and if, it becomes time to sell or spend some then that is the end game as far as you are concerned. It is also a way to pass on your wealth in a way that there are no taxes to pay, just don’t tell anyone outside your family. There are people who make money selling silver, but that is not that hard to do when the general direction is up. You would have made more buying and selling certain vintage auto parts or guitars.

  6. I am with you Crissy. You are a brave person to make your statements.
    A while back I was of the opinion that one should report the sale or trade of PMs, be a good like tax slave and follow orders like a sheep.  My CPA gave me the book version of what a seller or trader should do when working with PMs.
      There are some large loopholes available for sellers that literally screams that you don’t have to report your sales. 
    For instance, American gold eagles have no 1099 reporting requirements.
      If you sell less than 1000 ounces of silver the dealer is not required to issue a 1099.  There are other minor details in the tax laws that you will see crop up now and then but it appears the government is all over the place with these rules.It’s as if one sane person in the IRS realized what a freaking scam they had made of the tax laws and wrote some loopholes as large as the Erie Canal.
    Capital gains on gold bullion is 28%, twice as high as regular capital gains.  What is with that?
    It’s as if we are being punished for our ownership of REAL MONEY. Yet the IRS does not require a 1099.  It’s as if they are inviting you to sell your gold or silver without reporting.  Even non-American coins like Pandas, Philharmonics and Kruggerands can be sold in blocks of less than 20 and the dealer has no reporting requirements. It’s like playing a game of hide and seek and if you figure out the rules you win.
    That said, I have taken a much  harder line on the reporting of sales of PMs and the consequential gains. I have an active, aggressive and remorsely strong line with these taxes. My reasons are as follows.
    When the government  and central bank debased paper FIAT currency through their incredibly criminal ponzi scheme debt manifestations while actively encouraging inflation that was destined to destroy what little savings we’ve accumulated, then in my  hard nosed obdurate opinion  we owe the government nothing in the form of taxes on these sales. They have declared a soft war against the people and that demands that we respond.

    We are buying REAL MONEY IN THE FORM OF GOLD, SILVER AND JUNK BULLION. That is the first line of offense. We can sell our physical assets without paying slave taxes and extortion to the governments. If we do we just encourage bad behavior. So, no more taxes.
    As far as I am now concerned the pocket lettuce that we shell out to pay for the basics in life is a fraudulent, debunked, debased fruit of a poisonous criminal enterprise called the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK.
    It is neither a bank nor a agency of the Federal government. It is a bastard child of gangsters and criminals who conspired with their European overlords 100 years ago to destroy this country with debt slavery and economic  decrepitude that has now come full circle.   We, the people, are  being forced to reap the issue of foul earth planted 100 years ago  by ghouls and satanists.  I am one person who is  not going to be part of this harvest of  stink weeds and poison nettles, all GMO no doubt.
    If you look at the new national flag, a smear of bloody red lines with  a scythe and crescent that you can buy on line to support the president’s campaign; well folks guess what?
    I’m done with this inexecrable crap fiesta that we are in today   I will pay no taxes on the profit of my precious metal assets.  If the Tax Nazis want to come and get me, then bring it.   I’m done.
    Hopefully this does not get Doc in trouble with the Napolitano Gestapo goon squad. If it’s too offensive then maybe Bull Run needs to take it down. That’s ok with me. I said what I needed to say. Thank you Crissy for being up front with your thoughts. I should be as brave as you.

    • Appreciate the kind words. I am getting too old to care about what “they” think of me and what I do. If I end up in a FEMA camp then I just hope the food is good.

    • “Capital gains on gold bullion is 28%, twice as high as regular capital gains.  What is with that?”

      Because the IRS considers gold and silver as collectibles, like oriental rugs, vintage cars, classic musical instruments, etc.  All of these get taxed at 28%.  I agree that these should be 15% like other cap gains but they aren’t.

       “Even non-American coins like Pandas, Philharmonics and Kruggerands can be sold in blocks of less than 20 and the dealer has no reporting requirements.”

      With gold, they may have an alternative method of tracking sales and that is a different form that many in the financial sector have to fill out for transfers of money in excess of $9999.  It doesn’t take too many ozs. of gold to exceed that $10k figure. 

    • Unless a person self reveals, there can be no taxing of PM gains wihout a 1099. There seems to be a lot of confusion about when a 1099 is issued by the metals dealer you might sell to. Here is the page that lists the CMI policy regarding the issuance of 1099s.

      http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/gold-confiscation-1933/

      Here is the specific paragraph in question:

      Reportable Sales
      Customer sales to dealers of certain precious metals exceeding specific quantities call for reporting to the IRS on 1099B forms. The 1099B forms are similar to other 1099 forms taxpayers commonly receive; the “B” means they have been issued by a business other than a financial entity.
      Reportable sales (again, customer sales to dealers) apply to 1-oz Gold Maple Leafs, 1-oz Krugerrands, and 1-oz Mexican Onzas in quantities of twenty-five or more in one transaction. Reporting requirements do not apply to American Gold Eagles, no matter the quantities. Furthermore, reporting requirements do not apply to any fractional ounce gold coins.
      Only one common silver product is reportable when sold: pre-1965 U.S. coins. The quantity that causes the filing of a 1099B, however, is not clear. The IRS bases its authority to require reporting on CFTC-approved contracts that call for the delivery of $10,000 face value. Consequently, many dealers do not report sales of pre-1965 U.S. coins unless the sale totals $10,000 face value; others report $1,000 sales.
      Sales of American Silver Eagles, privately-minted Silver Eagle 1-oz silver rounds, and 100-oz silver bars are not reportable, no matter the quantity. Other precious metals products are reportable, but they are not covered here because the average investor does not trade them.
      Most investors have no first-hand knowledge of these matters; consequently, when precious metals dealers talk about cash reporting, 8300 forms, or 1099s, investors are unable to know that they may not be hearing the whole story. Wanting to avoid the government knowing about their precious metals investments, many investors are delighted to learn that their purchases will not be reported and end up buying overpriced coins.
      As explained under “Reportable Purchases,” no precious metals purchases are reported unless cash reporting thresholds are exceeded. Investors wanting to avoid reportable sales should buy American Eagles.
      The above discussions about cash reporting, IRS Form 8300, and bank reporting are for editorial purposes only and should not be relied on as definitive and final. Persons involved in cash transactions should consult their attorney or accountant.
      Investors wanting to buy gold should go with the popular bullion coins: Krugerrands or American Gold Eagles. These coins move dollar for dollar with the world price of gold and are easy to buy, sell, and trade. Additionally, tracking the value of these coins is easy. No “expert” has to look at them.
         

  7. I hear you Crissy  I’m 60 and if someone rubs my fur the wrong way I get mean. So I could care less what anyone thinks of me either.  Besides which, FEMA needs to worry about us, not the other way around.  Owning silver aslong as you have I’m sure you have 12 good plans to deal with them.

    • “I hear you Crissy  I’m 60 and if someone rubs my fur the wrong way I get mean.”

      LOL!  You too, AG?  And here I thought that, at 63, I might be the only curmudgeon on here.  ;-)

      Truth to tell, though, I have a lot less fur than I once did.  heh heh

       

  8. With my one year of experience with gold and silver, the pattern that I’m seeing with the cartel’s raid is that for them, it is getting harder to crush gold and silver’s prices every time they use their method and they are disappearing. For example if I remember about six months ago, it took the cartel 1/3 of the annual US silver production in paper silver to crush silver’s price by about 2$. Now, it took them two times the annual US silver production in paper silver to crush silver’s price by about 0.50$.

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