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USMintA Unique Perspective in the Mechanics of the Wholesale Silver Market
On This Special Edition of Metals & Markets, We Break the News That the US Mint Appears Set to End Silver Eagles Allocation as AP’s Begin Dumping Coins

Is This The End of Silver Shortages?


Big Week For Metals: Gold Jumps $80, Silver Rises $1.50
A Unique Perspective in the Mechanics of the Wholesale Silver Market & the End of Shortages
Silver Eagle Allocation to End After 12 Months of Shortages?

Cartel Footprints Friday: Set Up For A Raid Next Week?

 

1 oz Silver Superman S-Shield 
Intro Pricing!

Buy Superman S-Shield Man of Steel Coins at SD Bullion

DOC’S GOLD & SILVER MARKET UPDATE:

The US Mint sold just 914,500 2016 American Silver Eagle coins this week, the first time this year the Authorized Purchasers (AP’s) failed to take down the entire week’s production.
2016 Silver Eagles sales totals are now 24,327,500 coins. 

The Royal Canadian Mint released Q1 sales numbers for 2016 Silver Maples last week: 2015’s record demand of 8.9 million oz was smashed with an all-time record sales quarter of 10.6 million oz of Silver Maples!   

The Royal Canadian Mint launched 1 oz Silver Superman Shield bullion coins on Thursday, with extremely strong initial demand reported by the dealers.
The Silver Superman coins have a mintage of just 1 million, and follow previous semi-numismatic series Wildlife, Birds of Prey, and Predators. 

 

The Week’s Top Silver News Stories

The Week’s Top Gold News Stories

  1. Very strange action today in the miners. At about 11:00 am Est gold sold off from around 1278 in a waterfall type decline to  around 1268.50. The miners all responded by selling off in tandem. The interesting thing was that gold prices recovered all of  its losses and moved back up to 1278 area by around 3:00 pm. So here, as I watched this action  the miners had no movement at all, most of them traded sideways, very strange! I would love to hear anyone who has a rational answer to this action today.

    • Part of the answer might be that when the cartel dumps paper and reduces the price, massive buying in Asia comes in and pushes the price right back up again.  We have seen this drop and recovery happen over and over, especially in the last year or so.  The old paper dump to smash prices is about used up in terms of its effectiveness.  It now takes MUCH larger paper dumps to reduce the price by smaller amounts that then does not last as long as it once did.  At some point this technique will lose every bit of its effectiveness and that will be when the cartel finds another way to manipulate metals prices other than naked paper shorting.  Not sure what that would be but have no doubt that they will find something.

      As to the miners… who can say?  That’s an even more complicated story than the metals themselves face.  US$ movements can have a significant impact on both the miners and the metals themselves.  The miners are leveraged on the price of the metals they mine, so often show larger price swings than do the metals themselves.

       

    • @jskauai ….Bottom line is stocks go up and stocks go down and no one really knows why.  That’s why the best investors (think Buffett) are value investors.  Be right and sit tight.  To address your point, though.  I think you’ll find a more direct correlation between PM price and stock price with the royalty companies like a Silver Wheaton(SLW) or a Franco-Nevada(FNV).

       

      I recall once you said you live in Princeville.  Been there many times.  Nothing better than a sunset over Hanalei Bay.  For a young guy I think you have life figured out.  Sit back and enjoy the view.

       

      Holding physical gold and silver is insurance against a financial system collapse, not a way to make a fast buck.  If your goal is to make a lot of money, then find a need and fill that need and become very passionate about filling that need.  In a nut shell that’s what all my wealthy friends have done .

    • I sold miners Thursday end of day and my trading pal sold when it started to go down.

      I have been watching this year how it is getting more wild swings several times during

      the day so think the manipulators are working hard at jacking it around to put out the

      weak longs and weak shorts.  To balance I had FAZ and TZA that went up quite nicely.

      Next week is a bit scary when to jump in and out.  Wait for GDX to hit  low and then

      buy your miners.  PS  I also noticed in May my miners had a lower second top so I sold

      and later came a third lower top.  Had a great 7 week run.  Be careful and follow your

      gut as the subscriptions and writers I read are sometimes off or behind.

       

    • The miners got way ahead of the physical. Many of mine were up 2-300% Took profits on all but 2 main holdings. The miners have signalled that the metals rally is real with much more to come, so now it’s time for the physical to step up and prove it. A prudent trade here would be to take some profits in miners and allocate more into metal ETFs and/or physical…. and bitcoin. They are just taking a break from the insane move up.  The ascent was too fast for the amount of time so i would expect a long sideways move is in store.

    • Ed_B, thanks for your reply. I just want to remind you that at 11:am est Europe is closing and Asia has closed hours ago before, meaning that now the ball is in the Americas. So games were being played today. I have been following and attempting to  trade the miners recently. Believe me, I have not seen anything like today’s action in recent time frame. Very strange to say the least! So is anyone out there who can provide a reasonable idea of what was going on today with bullion vs. the miners?

    • Thanks @jskauai

      That was a very interesting question and the reminder about time was good.  I had not considered that in my initial reply and should have.  Yes, games are being played and they have been for a good while now.

      While I am not investing in the miners, I have invested in the US stock market for going on 40 years now and I can honestly say that today’s market bears no resemblance whatever to previous markets.  Many of the rules that worked well and held for decades are either not working at all now or are working differently than before.  Example:  for many years, we were told by “those in the know” that oil and stocks moved inversely, so when oil went up stocks came down and the reverse was also true.  This was explained as being due to the fact that low oil prices meant lower costs for businesses and consumers, leaving them with more money in their pockets for consuming and pushing the market higher.  While this makes perfect sense, we are now told just the opposite by these same types of people.  All I can figure in this is that we no longer have a free market but one that is so manipulated that it cannot function as a market at all.  It simply lurches from one manipulation to the next.  Instead of a pair of exquisitely fine dancers going through their precisely timed motions on a stage, we have a pair of drunks lurching along the street, hoping that their bizarre movements will counterbalance each other so they do not fall into the gutter.  It is for this very reason that most of my wealth is now in cash and PMs, rather than in the stock market.  I simply do not trust this market and see no reason to for the moment.  :-/

       

  2. I want to correct the last post…

    Ed_B, thanks for your reply. I just want to remind you that at 11:am est Europe is closing and Asia has closed hours ago before, meaning that now the ball is in the Americas. So games were being played today. I have been following and attempting to  trade the miners recently. Believe me, I have not seen anything like today’s action in recent time frame. Very strange to say the least! So is anyone out there who can provide a reasonable idea of what was going on today with bullion vs. the miners? Eric D states that someone dumped 85K share of JNUG which is a 3X bullish mining  share derivative. I did notice that DUST which is 3X bear mining share derivative was remaining up while gold prices were recovering. Oh! the game they play when practicing to decieve!

    • I came to this website to see if anyone was talking about this. The last 2 days gold and silver are up significantly but the miners barley went up yesterday, and went down today. Very odd, I was going to sell half of my jnug this morning but it still seemed way too low. So I figured i would wait, and then it went even lower than it was worth when gold was 24 dollars lower ? I mean 24 dollars isnt alot BUT as we all know a 2% move in gold is way more than that in stocks and JUNG is triple leveraged so normally you are looking at a 20% gain or so… not a loss.

      I feel like maybe someone knows something that we dont for the meetings next week, like they will say no rate hike but we promise we will next month ( gold goes down ) and then they never do it.

  3. 1) Martin Armstrong issued some kind of reversal  warning on gold reaching 1280. My question: the reasons gold got there, did those problems miraculously just get solved?

    2) Gold. If Soros is buying and China is buying, then other big pockets are buying, they are competing for a dwindling supply of available bars

    3) U.S. Mint… at some point, with cheap silver, the pool of retail buyers was going to dry up, their money spent over the course of the past year. As for the (fraudulent) “official” price it’s the big players of size that will move it. So I personally am not concerned with this “new development.”

    4) Friday’s action. Cartel footprints? Not IMO. Waterfalls not sharp enough in either the price of G&S or in the miners ~ more like traders taking profits at the end of a good week, and many stocks are fairly high above their 50 day anyway. Wouldn’t concern me for some to pull back a bit. 2 of my 4 holdings ended up yesterday.

    5) Fed jawboning. IMO it is going to be less and less effective as the recession deepens.

    • 1. Dont pay attention to Armstrong

      2. Dont pay attention to Soros

      3. Dont pay attention to the mint

      4. Waterfall? Hardly, try looking at some longterm charts.

      5. The FED is full of crap.

      I trade chart action only and ignore all the BS. The miners got ahead of themselves and i expect a sideways move as the metals march higher. I would allocate more into pure metals funds/etfs/physical for the next leg of this market.

      EW3

  4. @logjam

    Good analysis! 🙂

    Agree with mostly with #2-5.

    What about #1 on your list? Not sure how to read this one. You cite Martin. My question is are you saying Martin he has been corrupted since his 11 year incarceration and consider it propaganda?

    Also regarding China…just saw this last night from @Smaulgld

    https://smaulgld.com/peoples-bank-chinas-gold-holdings-flat-may/

    Not sure what to make of it. Is China reporting truthfully (probably never 100% accurate)? Cooling period? Are they temporarily tapped out? Do they have bigger issues? Maybe they are shifting to another PM (i.e. Ag)?  It creates many questions for me. Something to monitor for sure.

    • Slowdown of China gold buying a function of a lack of supply at current price level. They have cleaned the market of sub $1250 gold. COMEX looks to be in trouble with with insufficient  gold to deliver against standing June contracts.  http://www.jsmineset.com/2016/06/09/something-very-big-is-afoot/

  5. Thoughts on China

    1. the Peoples’s Bank Of China is not “China” what the PBOC adds to its reserves does not reflect “china’s” gold. That is why I have started referring in my monthly updates as PBOC gold

    2. gold is still being imported INTO china via Hong Kong and Shanghai

    3. Gold is still being mined in China, which is the world’s largest gold mining coutry in the world

    4. Gold withdrawals on the SGE still at elevated levels.

    5. The PBOC may have decided to layoff gold in May due to higher prices and buy the dip. No one knows.

    BUT no one can state with certainty that China is lying.

    The common meme that China is “lying” is probably as false as “Silver mining production fell in 2015” and a “Comex default is imminent”. Someone says it loudly and it gets repeated until people think its a fact.

    “China’s” gold is held in places other than the PBOC -here are some of them https://smaulgld.com/the-case-of-chinas-missing-gold/

    • @Smaulgld

      Thanks! I really enjoy your work as I have mentioned in prior posts.

      Also you are terrific in explaining and clarifying in an extremely prompt manner.

      You and Rory (DailyCoin) are a great combination…You two seem to really have something going….

      Keep up the great work!

  6. A stock that might not be on your radar but should be: Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (ASM) has been on a tear (my biggest gainer this week) since they put out this announcement June 6:

       “I am pleased to announce that Avino has declared commercial production at its second, and largest mine on the Avino property. We have continued to build our first class mining operation over the last 19 months and declaring commercial production at the Avino Mine marks the achievement of another milestone for the Company. We are fortunate to have a strong and dedicated team of professionals who have been instrumental in making the transition to commercial production; I personally thank them for their significant contributions.
        The mining sector has seen its share of global challenges, however, Avino has continued to advance and expand its projects during this difficult period by keeping its production and overhead costs low and staying focussed on its key objectives. Avino believes this declaration of commercial production will not only improve our financial performance, but will demonstrate to our shareholders that we continue to build value while we expand our operations and execute our long term objectives.”

    • too many people here trying to push paper gold/stocks.

      that wouldn’t be to try to keep people away from REAL gold now would it?

      physical gold they cannot control (not forever, only a limited time with creation of fraudulent and worthless paper in a fraudulent system which will ultimately end), but everything else they can control the price of and effectively steal.

      i think the choice of investment is pretty clear.

  7. @JustTheFacts ~ I have never owned IAG and have never pumped said stock anywhere

    But since you mentioned it I will now pump one of my other holdings, XRA, Exeter Resource Corp, no debt, nice pile in the ground, good looking chart & MACD, up 6% yesterday when most  everything else was down.

  8. @logjam

    For me I like having it in my hand…

    Nothing against you investors…I hope you all do well and reap the rewards for your risk…I am cheering for you.

    Just me personally..keeping it simple…keeping it in my hand…

    How do you really know what is in the ground? Who verifies that it is in the ground? Gov issues, fraud, tax implications, etc. etc.

    The physical is accounted, verified and controlled by me…where it is stored, when to use its stored value, when to take it on my boating excursion (hope I don’t have an accident).

  9. Note on Brexit:

    The latest Independent poll shows a strong swing to Leave of 55%:45%!!

    This is looking increasingly like a Black Swan coming into land.  I certainly did not expect this to happen and the worst thing for the statists is that most of Europe is cheering Britain on.  From the electors point of view the vote is entirely party neutral as all our scheming politicians are in favour of this latest layer of undemocratic state power so they can always see themselves voting against the other parties instead of against their own preferred party.

    On the negative side from the Leave perspective the undecided vote is likely to vote Remain if still undecided at poll time.  On the positive side from the Leave perspective the actual turn out for the Remains is likely to be very, very much lower.  It could easily turn in at 60:40 in favour of leave.

    independent

     

     

    • I would consider a large % of undecided voters to be completely oblivious to the vote, and stay home either getting drunk, watching a game, or playing games instead.

      That being said, the small percentage left is likely to get yanked off the couch by leave voters who are proactive. Theres nothing proactive about staying put.

    • brexit will be another fraud just like the scottish independence vote. all the video evidence of vote rigging has vanished and never been investigated or heard of again.

      note how they say the polling is very close and the outcome is in doubt? this is to justify the rigged outcome of a NO vote. they will never allow a brexit.

      real independent polls i believe would be more likely in the 70-80% YES range. several polls have shown such, but they are never widely publicised through media for good reason!

    • electronic voting is easier to rig for sure, but paper voting can be rigged too.

      in the scottish independent vote there was video of a counter sorting out votes and then taking a whole pile of YES votes and placing into the NO pile. several times!!! then there were pictures of huge piles of NO votes with several YES votes visible at the top of a few bundles – i wonder what was hidden WITHIN those piles.

      the outcome is already pre-determined regardless of voting system used: NOBODY ESCAPES THE CLUTCHES OF THE GLOBAL CRIME CABAL.

    • Thanks, and they are probably right. Just got a phone call from my bank that my card is blocked because of suspicious transactions which indeed I had nothing to do with. No harm done luckily, but wow, a scam well done, I have to say.

    • @Arthur to not even check for scams when you’re buying the most popular precious metal item for under spot, shipped, in my opinion you deserve to be scammed.
      If you’re such a bargain hunter, I think it’s time to go through your stack, meticulously with the proper magnets and knowledge on how to use them, and see how much brass you’ve been sold as silver. In case you accidentally make your problem someone else’swhen selling.

    • @Arthur

      @XC-Skater

      No one deserves to get scammed.

      While XC is probably being a little harsh the reality is there are all kinds of wolves out there. Stick to reliable well known dealers…Do your research (due diligence)…The old saying “if it is too good to be true it probably is” comes to mind.

      The fact that it was posted on Zero Hedge (if that is where you saw it) probably led you to let your guard down.

      I think the way they worked it/posted it was that it was a promo being offered to Zero Hedge readers.

      As XC pointed out below spot SAE’s should raise a red flag.

       

    • @scoremore @Arthur I agree no one deserves to be scammed; some of us are just more trusting than others.

      A prudent mind is key when dealing with investments. Just like counting your change given for a $100 bill, your silver is money! Verify it!

      Whenever my silver comes home from APMEX, SD, GoldSilver or any other broker, in sealed mint tubes or broken, I open one sealed tube, weigh each coin with gloves, and after verifying, re-weigh the entire tube, then verify the other tube weight to the tube opened. In general each tube should be less than .2 grams variable weight per coin in each tube.

      Therefore it is possible for a tube of 20 to weigh 620 grams and another tube to weigh 660 grams or 580 grams. (It is highly unlikely any variable would be low (times 20 coins!) But theoretically a legit tube could weigh nearly 4 grams heavy (1/8 oz) however unlikely. ( not counting the plastic tube)

      So be like “Prince John” and run your hands through your invesment, verify it, grow to know it. You’ll be the wiser for it.

    • I’ve posted my experience on bitcointalk, so hopefully a few other people that have no idea about spot prices and market mechanisms, will stay away from there.

      @scoremore, thanks again!

      @XC-Skater although you’re not gifted with a friendly helpful tone, don’t worry I’ve learned my lesson. 🙂

      @Shamus001 thanks for the advices it’s exactly what I’m doing with the antique silver coins I’m buying. Weight tests, magnet tests, size and edge measuring, electricity test… In new silver coins which are a few dozen bucks ‘only’ I could stand a loss of one coin being fake; these antiques run in into the hundreds sometimes thousands… 😉

      Thanks again guys!

       

    • @Shamus
      What’s the point of weighing coins if they may not be silver? Scales tell you whether a counterfeiter made an actual effort or was counting on scamming a total moron.
      Nothing beats a neodymium magnet (no substitutes) in trained hands. It works fine up to 10 ounce bars. I stay away from poured kilobars because I could actually make those myself, in my kitchen, with a half kilo copper core.

      And actually I don’t mean to steer people in the direction of mainstream dealers. I believe black market is our hope for the future. We better know our way around it.
      I am a flipper myself and executed hundreds of transactions with 100% buyer satisfaction. I urge everyone to check not only their next purchase, but all they own. Never fell for “too good to be true” deals, but did unmask some scammer who’d fooled my customers, or were active on local classifieds systems. A Panda without a 10Y denomination, that’s just too easy. From an often-seen seller this was, and he was very reluctant to remove the listing. Another scammer tried to scam people over in too many different ways and through this encountered me as a victim. Claimed he had received my parcel empty. I worked out that he was offered for sale to others (over email only) the unique items he was claiming from me as undelivered, to sweeten the deal of fake silver he keptt selling despite complaints. So that ended very badly for him, next time he shows himself online, he’s got a bunch of corporate lawyers hauling him to court for counterfeiting, postal fraud and insurance fraud.

      It’s not just about not being stupid yourself, but realizing that scammers are preying on those they deem stupid.
      SILVER IS MONEY. It has a value. Many newbies set out to get the best possible price. I was like that myself once. If you are not pauying $2 over spot and extra shipping for Eagles (no-one reliable has true free shipping), you need to be super wary.

      The reason scammers offer their fakes and non-shipments below normal price? Because silver is in fact not in short supply, at normal prices you don’t sell on every ad. Realistic margin is 5%, but even at 100% it’s not very lucrative for scammers, so they compete on price, making themselves stand out as scammers to those a bit more careful 🙂

      Serious, get yourselves a proper neodymium magnet. Needs not be huge. Needs not cost more than a burger.

  10. The Russian Central Bank lowered its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 10.5 percent on Friday, the TASS state news agency reported. The last time the bank lowered the interest rate was in August 2015.

    Following a meeting of the Board of Directors, the bank decided to lower the rate based on recent perceived positive trends in inflation patterns.
    “The Board of Directors notes positive process of inflation stabilization, decline of inflation expectations and inflation risks amid signs of an approaching phase of growing recovery,” the bank’s report said, TASS reported.
    The report said the decision was also based on positive GDP trends in Q1 of this year, as well as macroeconomic indicators in April, which reflect the growing ability of the Russian economy to withstand fluctuations in the price of oil.
    With the next meeting of the bank’s Board of Directors to take place on July 29, the report mentioned the future of the rate.
    “The Russian Central Bank will consider the possibility of further reduction of the key rate, assessing inflation risks and compliance of dynamics of inflation deceleration with the target trajectory,” the report said.
    The ruble continued to fall following the announcement, but stabilized later in the day after the dollar and euro fell to 64.7 and 73.2 rubles, respectively.

  11. @jstark  @jskauai   That 85,000 share sale seems to be a relatively small amount as a percentage to the volume for the day–around 1,300,000.   It started where it left off the day before and cycled up and down during the day.  The top for Friday was close to the last two tops over the prior 30 days or so.  This ETF is vicious in its volatility and best only for those who can time it on a daily basis OR believe gold and silver will ramp heavily upwards with AG at $18.50 and AU at 1,300 and rising.

    I am not a professional investor but have enjoyed a 180% rise since early February with one exit providing 100% gain.  Reentry  2 weeks ago gives a nice rise since the rebuy has a $117  DCA.

    With this much gain, the volatility is less wearing on the nerves and capital gains are moot as the gains are sheltered with cap loss carry forwards from several years ago.

  12. I am surprised that no one wrote a word about the secondary headline to this article that read “Is this the end of the silver shortage?” Ummm, Newsflash! There is NOT nor has there been a silver shortage – just another lying article. What these dumb-asses don’t realize is that true stacker’s will buy regardless, we don’t need lies and fear porn thrown at us daily.

    • Shortage, referring to the US mint production. Dont be so butt hurt about the title.

      There has been a shortage of Silver Eagles being produced vs demand, not every month, but darn near for a few years now….so IF they cease limited allocations, there WILL be an end to ASE shortages.

      I didnt want to put myself out there, but this is a real good sign for a return to PM money. In order for PM to be money again, there has to be a sufficient amount in the hands of the people, therefor a higher supply would be a neccessary step. (An early one, but neccessary- I also consider JP Morgans silver to be held for PM currency fabrication, making them the supplier for the U.S. which is along their latest moves, if one considers the SNAP cards issued by U.S. contracted by Morgan.

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