GLDBlackRock Suspends Paper “Gold” ETF IssuanceIs This The Long Anticipated Beginning of the End For the Cartel’s Manipulation of the Gold Market!?!

Doc & Dubin Break Down The HUGE Story, Its Implications, & the RESUMPTION of the Secular Gold Bull Market:

2016 Silver Maples


It appears Black Rock has a problem on its hands.  Trapped between a bright, shiny “pet rock” and a hard place, Black Rock announced the suspension of the issuance of new IAU Gold Trust shares.  Time will tell how long the suspension remains in effect.  Suffice it to say, Black Rock has egg on its face – as does anyone that continue to make specious arguments about the precious metals market not being tight. 

Circumstances forced Black Rock’s hands.  As investors buy the ETF, the premium versus IAU’s “reported” physical holdings expands over time if new shares are not issued in association with the purchase of additional gold bullion.  Notice how the premium to net asset value was around 2 percent a few times this month?  That’s somewhat high, and tracking the premium in the coming weeks will be interesting.  It should trend higher when gold is under accumulation.  But one does have to wonder if an announcement like this – along with rising IAU premiums – might steer some investors away from IAU and towards other previous metals related assets.  IAU is popular in Europe and given high taxes in many European countries, with high VAT taxes on bullion, there are built-in incentives for people to favor derivative instruments like IAU versus the instant pocket-picking physical bullion investors must endure.

The Kitco 72 hour charts reflect the action, and I’m also including a 5 year gold chart for perspective given that Doc and I make references to gold’s trading milestones over the last few years:

gold 72hr

silver 72hr


gold 5 year


Source: Craig Hemke

Source: Craig Hemke

As I write, Friday’s regular market session is now closed, and gold has given back most of its reversal following the 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time employment report. Silver was still reflecting a “catch-up” momentum move throughoutFriday’s trade, relative to gold.  Silver has been lagging gold for quite a few weeks, partly related to fears of an uncontrollable deflationary spiral slowing down silver industrial demand, but we’ve also witnessed the cartel attacking silver, periodically, in a failed effort to contain gold.  By now, we should have already seen a bit more improvement (falling) in the gold-to-silver ratio.  That will happen in the coming weeks and months as more people come to recognize that the precious metals bull market is real, and metals are going MUCH higher.

Last week, we warned of the high probability that the cartel would attack this week, and that the cartel would most likely act with the committeemen of traders data report cut-off in mind.  But other than on Wednesday, they were not able to get much traction to the downside.  This coming week, expect another cartel effort.  On Monday, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer is scheduled to deliver an address titled “Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now” at the National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy, and Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard will be opining and likely issuing “MOPE signals” at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Washington Conference, held in Washington, D.C.  Thus, we have a perfect set-up for a capping effort starting as early as Sunday evening.  But as Doc and I discuss, near-term attacks will not likely have meaningful, lasting impact.  Scaring “weak hand” investors and traders is a good thing when it comes to the intermediate- and long-term health of this precious metals bull market.


For additional discussion about my contention that we are already in the third phrase of this secular precious metals bull market, click here for the latest Welcome To Dystopia, “Gold Bull Market Spanking Permabears.”  Jason Burack and I recorded the podcast near the close of Thursday’s regular market session.

Enjoy the weekend!  – Eric Dubin, independent financial/geopolitical analyst.

Buy Silver Eagles SD Bullion

  1. Small issue re [Black Rock]. They stopped issuing new shares not because they can’t get physical but because they need authorisation from the SEC to issue more shares, having already fully issued the existing authorised float. According to [Black Rock].

    That said, has the fund manager been fired for not anticipating this in advance and applying to SEC in a timely manner so as to avoid such an occurence? If so, I didn’t see that announcement. Especially when considering that Wall Street OWNS the SEC, I’m sure that such a routine approval could have been secured overnight if necessary.

    So, all of the above said, it seems likely that the real reason is that they know they will not be able to source the physical to back the issue of new shares.

    It didn’t seem to have affected GLD which “allegedly” has added 130 Tonnes to “inventory” this year so far and I wonder where that came from? Mind you, the “Custodian” of GLD is HSBC. Enough said….

    • @philipat

      Thanks phil,  great follow up to the article.  Love the “custodian” comment!  I’ve switched to buying only silver right now.  What the article doesn’t mention is over the past two years every run up has resulted in a drop back into the 1100’s.   My only fear is how the graph ran this time.  it’s parabolic instead of just a shot up. But regardless stick to my plan.  Gold silver ratio is at a five year high.  either gold is overpriced or silver is under.  either way I’ll be looking for the best deal on 90% this weekend and hopefully a couple engelhards.

    • ugh.

      i roll around on the floor with both laughter and in a fit of rage.

      if i want to buy gold i go into my local coin store or bullion dealer, hand over my cash and then get an ounce of gold. no SEC or other approvals required. and it’s 100% mine, in my possession.

      some math: if i buy an ounce of any of this paper/ETF gold and then that company buys the associated physical, how does all the wages/salaries and alleged storage fees get paid for? is it way above the retail physical price? do i have to pay extra fees in perpetuity? do they buy less than what they issue certificates for so that they can pay expenses and make profits? the end result mathematics of any of these schemes just doesn’t add up – imo people will get burnt.

      i can see another MF Global coming. refer south park… “poof! aaaaand it’s gone.”

    • “either gold is overpriced or silver is under.”


      IMO, both gold and silver are under-priced, historically, but silver is WAY under-priced.  That the G / S ratio is now over 80:1 is also pretty telling.  While this ratio has reached as high as 100:1 or so, it has spent a LOT of time cycling between about 80:1 and 40:1.  Those who have traded gold for silver at 80:1 and then waited for the ratio to fall to 40:1 before trading silver for gold, have managed to about double their gold ounce holdings without having to add much in the way of additional capital.  It’s pretty tempting at this point.


  2. @Akgonci

    The Commercials are massively short both Gold and Silver. They added another 25K Contracts on friday alone to keep a lid on Au. The OI/Registered ratio is now close to 550. That’s 550 paper ounces for every ounce of Deliverable physical. So if the music stops now, there will be one hell of a fight for chairs! Usually with this type of COT structure, the Cartel will wait for momentum to slow then make a huge raid, typically starting with a dump of a few Billion notional at 3AM on Globex.

    However, IMHO, the market is different this time. There is little bulk physical to be had and the Cartel is stretched to the limit. All the more probable that a raid will come, and quite soon, probably next week. The question is, how successful will it be?. My guess is; less so and certainly not to the extent of previous raids because the bid stack is entirely different now in the paper market. If it happens, there will be a correction, but that is to be expected anyway after a 20%+ run? But it will probably be shallow, short-lived and will result in a period of horizontal consolidation.

    If I’m wrong, there will be the mother of all short squeezes and the Cartel will take a bath. Wouldn’t that be nice? It IS interesting that staring Friday, Ag took the lead, which normally is a good sign for future gains in both metals.

    Either way stacking both physical metals, with a weighting towards Ag, remains a worthwhile approach. IMHO.

    • Here is the thing ag is in short supply and the commercials being short isn’t the problem it is the hedgies who are long the silver contracts that is!

      The hedgies know the cartel is going to try and pull the rug out but all the hedgies need to do is take delivery on the 17 million ounces on the comex and the commercials will get crushed!

      So at present we have a first class game of chicken going on here!

      Who is going to lose this time? The hedgies have been robbed as the commercials know where the stop losses are and can take them to the wood shed if they so desired but if the hedgies take delivery that would cook the commercials so now we just sit back and see who blinks first:)enjoy the ride

    • @philipat

      Hey Phil again thanks,  I look at the weekly positions religiously, and I thought they had gone into long positions.  I’m looking at the CFTC reports “commitments of traders”  I started noticing in early January that managed money starting going long and the spreads were getting higher.  Where do you get the numberr of contracts issued from?  that would be great information.  As of right now I’m short (physically) in gold and long in silver,  either gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued.  I’m hoping to buy back around $1180.  what do you think?  let me take that back i am also short 200 eagles i should have replaced but thought it would pull back, but 90% buying all i can get my hands on.

    • There are several realtively inexpensive subscription services which analyse all this data in detail Ed Steer and TFMR are highly recommended.

    • I look at the CFTC reports and even though they are delayed they show most managed money is long and only swap dealers are short.  I wonder if this has changed this week, apparently it has.  I’m reading february 26th data.  I also look at pricing from the larger coin dealers,  when I see them offering eagles at $29.90 & 39.99 over spot I notice that the market falls soon after.  When the spreads start approaching $100 I notice the market runs.  They were as low as $29.99 Yesterday and this morning.  I’m like holy crap, and APMEX wasn’t far off.  I think they dump their supply prior to the banks pulling the rug.  Same for silver I’m seeing the spreads for 90% shooting up, and fewer deals on eagles.  all of a sudden it jumps.  But regardless, I truly feel silver is way under priced and I continue to accumulate.  Gold I stacked (I remember buying $2.50 indians at $35) but I use it to hedge my position in silver.  Hence selling some off last week and buying silver.  Now I just need gold to drop so i can buy back my “registered” stock 😉

    • Yes, for you….. I would recommend SLV or GLD.  They’re ran by very reputable banks, and are easily traded for profit should the price increase during the duration of your holdings.  They are 100% backed by the real thing, but BETTER! You don’t have to hold it, or find a place to store that dirty, heavy lump of shiny lead – The bank does it all for you!  Just CLICK buy, and CLICK sell, voila! Good ol spendable CASH PROFITS in your account & ready to be spent at your local Walmart at your hearts desire!

      Remember Red Pill… GLD or SLV…… GET SOME!

  3. The Gold is gone. The Comex is empty. If the billonaires realize this, sell will sell all of their general stockholdings and try to buy gold. But nobody will sell, therefore we get a hypermania in goldstocks. There will be many 1000 Baggers at Gold of 5000 Dollars.

    • That is the deal!

      I think the hedgies were waiting for this to play out to get some serious payback!

      I also think there is some heavy back door action at the comex at present!

      They don’t (cant) be seen as immaterial at any stage of this inevitable metals shortage scenario!

      The end of the manipulation is near and the only way to change a shortage is to make it more expensive to buy and pricey enough for the miners to mine it:)

      Oh geez imagine that all the shorts having to head to the exits all at once:)

      So far 200$ up on gold and about2$ on silver from the lows wait till we go another 2$ on silver and another 200 on gold!

      Let the good times roll:)

    • Yes, that is a real possibility this time. The managed money crowd has been right royally screwed over and over by the Commercials in their Wash/Rinse/Repeat cycle game. And if it is obvious to individual investors, why has it not been obvious to “Sophisticated” investors? Yes, I know that part of it is hedging other positions, but still I would have thought that hedging in a rigged casino where the other side of the trade can front-run you is not a very sensible way of entering such hedges.

      I agree that all the Hedgies have to do this time is sit tight and stand for delivery. Will it happen? Let’s wait and see but it would be great to see the Commercials taken out to the woodshed for once wouldn’t it?

    • @1000BAGGER

      If what you say is true then we should be shorting gold in paper as the banks will not allow what happened in the 80’s with silver to happen now with gold!!  If the vaults are empty they will not let it run up where people start taking delivery.  We would have HUNT BROS 2016!!!

    • They have already doubled from the first of the year!

      I am up over 150% this year so far!

      I been playing the swings and taking profits and buying silver as every 1% buys us 1000 ounces!

      I am playing their game but instead of taking paper profits I am taking it in silver!

      Now there are 16 of us:)

      My share isn’t a heck of a lot at a time but we sure have taken a lot of silver from the shelves!

      Funny to watch 6-10 monster boxes leave the inventory all at once for days in a row:)

      Just our way of saying thaks to the commercials:)lol

      How do they like us now?ha ha ha:)

    • “Let’s wait and see but it would be great to see the Commercials taken out to the woodshed for once wouldn’t it?”


      Woodshed?  Considering their history, they’ll be lucky if they do not get taken out back and shot… figuratively speaking, of course.  😉


  4. A observation.

    On Friday I ran my 280 mile circuit. Totaling 3 LCS`s (one listed on the U.S. Mint website as an authorized distributor.) and 5 pawn shops. The picking were slim. I prefer 1/10th oz Gold Eagles, none available. I ended up buying a 2015 Gold Buffalo BU. Very few ASE`s, and no junk.

    This trip goes down as the least PM`s available ever. Part of the scarcity in Gold may be attributal to the fact that 2016`s are not out yet (BU). This doesn`t explain all of the scarcity. Demand on the street is high. People are starting to wake up. Lot`s of TV commercials selling PM`s.

    My own belief is we will see some shocking geo-political events this year. Mid Eastern “refugee`s” will show their real intensions.

    It will be an interesting year.

    • @silver-dollar

      Interesting! 🙂

      I placed an order for some constitutional variety today because I was thinking as much…that it would be the first type of product that would start disappearing from inventories…had to talk myself out of some nice rounds and pull in some “junk”…Well it is not junk to me!

      Thanks for the info and reinforces my thinking today…

    • Interesting times, for sure… and every bit in the same vein as the Chinese intended with their “may you live in interesting  times” curse.


  5. If I was the manager of Blackrock I wouldn’t suspend their gold baskets purchases because as the author suggests that they can’t fill their next gold basket. I find that suggestion ridiculous. If I was the manager of Blackrock I would place orders for gold for as many baskets of gold as my new shareholders needed at the COMEX, at the LBMA at the Shanghai Gold Exchange at the miners sales offices and at the refiners in Switzerland and at Andrew McGuire’s new exchange.

    If the COMEX and the others can’t deliver the gold basket ordered that news by itself would likely shoot the price of gold upwards in a big way. Which would be very good for all Goldrock shareholders. Any Blackrock manager would know that. The Blackrock door greeter would know that. So I am not convinced by this Blackrock story one little bit.



    • @CentralTexan


      Amen to that.  In spite of all the complaining about PM prices for the past 5 or so years, it’s been a perfectly marvelous time to be accumulating PMs.  They’ve been ON SALE, so what better time to be buying?  I always like getting more of what I want or need for less fiat.


  6. Remember that rich uncle that used to look down it’s shiny nose at it’s poor relation: gold? I’m referring to platinum, of course. Mentioned a few weeks ago the platinum vs gold price was also historically out of whack. Today platinum gains $36.00. I just read it is considered a “critical material” by DOD…and it is used in hi-temp non-corrosive wiring and contacts. As in missile/rocket/smart bomb technology? Just sayin…say…did I just read DOD wants missiles like Russia’s Kaliber? Yes…I did. Historically…it should be at $1400.00 if gold is $1250.00. “Room to Run” on hedge fund charts?

    • In the past, whenever the price of Pt dropped below that of Au, it was a screaming BUY! signal.  It is likely that it still is.  The only difference these days is that this price instability has lasted MUCH longer than at any time in the past.


  7. I should also mention it is being “phased out” in catalytic automotive use but much needed in glass and chemical industries…also used in aerospace for sealants. Interesting alternative easily obtained in official currency form. I just point it out…do your own research. I hold the 1/10 oz size…when things “go south” I see them as the equivalent of a “$200.00” bill. The downside: it is not an easy PM metal to use for hobbyist smelter/caster.

    • Hey  @SilverDagger where is he sourcing his dates from? Apr 1, June 1, Oct 11.  I take it you follow him, so you likely can fill in the blanks – is he repeating info from some source?

      I ask, because the Columbia River is where I work now.  I’ve worked in the southern energy sector at sea for 10 years.  HE’S RIGHT.  The industry is gutted, the ships are docked and rusting, the workers dispersed around the nation (including myself)  I have an unlimited Engineers license, and are the highest in demand, and the work down south is scarce (to be mild)

      So I’m working the Columbia River in Washington State.  Last month, there was a container ship stuck in the port for the ENTIRE MONTH with a contamination flag on it. (meaning it must wait for x time to clear) but the damn thing was sitting there the ENTIRE MONTH!  And it was the only ship I seen, aside from a chinese ship pulling in to haul off our lumber. (no doubt to grind into chopsticks)

      It’s SLOW- the port engineer repeatedly tells me “it’s slow”.  I’ve pulled myself back into the “last stand” career path in shipping to endure this depression.

    • “I ask, because the Columbia River is where I work now.”


      Welcome to the Pacific NorthWet, @Shamus001.  Fear not.  There will always be work for a few good men, no matter how lousy business gets.  It is those who are less than good who will suffer the most from this worsening depression.

      Agree on the much reduced shipping business.  The Baltic Dry Index is so low now that it SHOULD give those on Wall Street and in DC a bad case of the screaming meemies.   Shipping is a good indicator of business activity… or the lack of it… and right now it is badly lacking.

    • Thanks @JOHNLGALT.  I needed some time off from all the depressing news hereabouts.  I even went fishing.  Not much luck there but it’s early in the season yet.  Things should improve shortly as the weather and tides moderate.  🙂


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