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Buy Silver Kookaburras at SDBullionWith Super Mario Draghi dropping a bomb on global financial markets Thursday, Doc & Dubin welcomed Alasdair Macleod out of London back on the show to break down the implications for the markets, gold, and silver:
On Draghi’s Bazooka QE: “It’s actually quite terrifying…

On Gold:  There is a Golden Cross Underneath a Rising Gold Price, as well as a Pennant Formation!  We’re looking at a minimum gold price of $1400, and it could happen quite quickly…
Full MUST LISTEN Metals and Markets is Below:

 

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To my surprise, we didn’t see much Federal Reserve jawboning this week.  We certainly had the perfect set-up for flapping gums.  Perhaps Fed officials were laying low as the ECB and Draghi took center stage?  In any event, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss interest rate policy.  It’s very unlikely the FOMC will decide to hike rates.

Most analysts and pundits in the precious metals camp are uneasy, expecting a big correction and/or cartel smack-down at any moment.  I’ve outlined a few set-ups where risk for another attack has been elevated, but each time we do see profit taking and cartel capping, buying overwhelms it and at worst, we have trended sideways on a weekly basis.  You can see this most clearly in the gold trade from March 3, onward.  The cartel uses time in its favor, attempting to exhaust momentum and as we move through these sideways consolidation patterns, a veritable paper issuance fiesta is underway (COMEX and beyond), absorbing rising paper demand.  However, both paper and physical demand are not letting up, and the stalling to dilute momentum tactic hasn’t worked.

silver - march 11

gold - march 11

Bottom-line:  Once again, we have a set-up for a hit next week.  However, any damage the cartel is able to inflict should only be a very short-term challenge, requiring only a week or two for repair.  Unlike April, 2013 or any other period over the last four+ year cyclical precious metals bear market, a much larger percentage of conventional money under management is not under any illusions about a European banking sector recovery, nor global economic recovery, as was the near-fully subscribed hopium of recent past.  A growing percentage of the conventional finance world can also see that the U.S. economy is in trouble, that the wealth effect is a lunatic central bank policy myth, and attempting to paper over a solvency crisis with more credit has failed.  These fundamentals and more are indeed why we have seen the birth of the third phase of the precious metals bull market.

Weekend Links:

If you’d like to follow Alasdair Macleod’s work, you can find him at SilverDoctors and at GoldMoney.com.  The first article below notes that the technical situation for the gold price has sharply improved, to the evident surprise of many mainstream analysts. It discusses possible reasons behind the turnaround, and implications for the future.  This is the article that Alasdair references during our podcast.

Thanks for checking out this week’s podcast. — Eric Dubin

Kraken SDBullion

  1. How many QE must we have before gold takes off. It didn’t happen with QE1, QE2, Operation twist or NIRP. Now with super Mario announcement of more ECB QE and Alasdair statement:

     We’re looking at a minimum gold price of $1400, and it could happen quite quickly…

    Which mean will have more down days and more time to stack.

     

    • Its obvious that gold and silver might creep up in price but not going where all this crowd preaches for many years and it was proved again today by a big paper blind naked short price raid on the metals.  I rarely post anymore but used to read all of these articles in detail years ago.  After several years of losin’ my arse’ reading this website I came to the conclusion its 98% wishful thinking.  Sure gold could go to $10,000 oz and little green men from Mars could invade the earth.  Just moar’ Doom Porn and Snake Oil Salesman selling their wares.   These exact same people preached that gold was going to make a moon shot in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and now 2016.  I wrote the same line about a year ago on but stopped at 2015 because 2016 had not arrived yet.

      Anyway believe what you want but until the gold and silver market is no longer controlled by a derivative paper spot price it’s goin’ nowhere fast.  Sure it could creep up to $1300 or $1400 but all this crap about $5,000 and $20,000 gold is right up there with Cheech and Chong’s Up In Smoke!  You have to be high on dope to believe it..

    • @powerball

      crowd preaches for many years and it was proved again today by a big paper blind naked short price raid on the metals

      I think $1400 is a realistic number.  I also think we could see $1100 again.   Here is my thinking.  There is only 340,000 oz of gold in comex registered for delivery and just over 6 million total registered and eligible.  That is not very much.  I think the US and canadian mint do that every month in sales.  There were somewhere in the neighborhood of 450,000 contracts worth 450 million oz’s of gold trading last week.  So that is more than 100 paper oz of paper to physical, and about 15% of the  stock.  But what I look at is the CFTC bank participation monthly report that still shows the major banks are short in gold

      http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/deamar16f

      but if you look at the commitment of traders report they are long in gold.

      http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

      Who do you feel wins the game,  the large banks or the large traders?  That is the question, who’s side are you taking?  Me the banks, I think there will be some consolidation, but I also see the potential for $1400 per oz gold.  One day the banks will not be able to keep up with flooding the market with paper and the system will be settled in cash and we will see the true value of gold/silver.

    • Good luck using technical analysis in a totally rigged market. The price will do what they want it to do no matter what the fundamentals or technical indicators say. So long as the spot price is controlled by Comex paper this will be the case. Now could your call be correct and silver goes down from here? Sure but that will have little to do with actual analysis of the trend. It will be because TPTB come in and whack the price down as they have been doing for the past several years.

       

    • You do realize TPTB also use TA?  The difference is what they do with it.  They may have dominion over man, but have no influence over laws of physics and maths.  Personally I fund the only fundamentals of concern will eventually manifest in the charts.  Indeed the charts define the fundamentals, separating them from the noise

    • They are crooks that use heavy-handed manipulative practices to steal from the little man. My disdain for them cannot be summed up into words. Nothing they do is magical it’s simply called fraud.

  2. In the 18th century a great thinker said all Fíat returns to its intrinsic value, zero, after hundreds of failed currencies there are still people that don’t get it, many of them are regular posters in PM sites, unf…believable

     

    • What an idiot he was.

      My grocery store only takes Fiat money, it wont take gold or silver. It’s been like that forever, and will always be.

       

    • Perk…Actually, the purpose of holding physical gold and silver is so you come out whole on the other side of a financial system collapse, not to spend your bullion at a store.

    • @AKGONCI

      I get the gist of what your saying but I think owning a couple of roll of dimes is a healthy thing.

      You know to cover all the bases…CYA…In a world where paper became worthless and it came to using Ag for purchases I would rather give up a few dimes than have to use an oz for each transaction… especially if the price is still low but on the cusp of rising. If you do not find a use for them they still weigh out and are priced in silver.

      I also hold a little extra TP, H2O, Dry Foods, Canned foods…the shieet will not go to waste and is a very small investment.

      Low risk with potential high reward and piece of mind.

      But to each his own. Call me a fool.

    • @scoremore

      I feel you  brother!!  It’s always best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  It is a holder of wealth.  If fiat does by some extreme measure go to zero, those that hold land, gold and silver will maintain their wealth.   I think history has shown when fiats collapse the bartering system takes over and people trade eggs for fish, wheat for chickens, that type of stuff, but once a new government or fiat currency is established the ones with gold and silver are in a better position as they throughout the last 2500 years have held value.  Nothing wrong with dimes, silver is silver.  I have plenty of dimes to by margaritas on the beach whent the SHTF. 😉  I have a couple pieces of continental currency (now only worth intrinsic value) that are backed by spanish mullions.   It’s cool and shows the importance of gold and silver throughout our history!

    • “It’s been like that forever, and will always be.”

       

      “Forever” is a VERY long time.  People are alive today who remember using silver money at ALL stores for everyday purchases.  No, this was not bullion, per se, but it was silver.  It was common and no one gave it a thought.  After all, silver was money, always had been, always would be.  😉

      This is one of the great logical fallacies of all time.  I wonder if people in the US thought that as they went into the fall of 1929?  The 1920s was an economic rockin’-n-rollin’ time in the US and all was good.  The market was running up and everyone and their dog was making money…

      History shows pretty clearly that no matter how good or bad things are, they are always subject to change.  Life is change.  Only physical death is unchanging.

       

    • @jerseyjoe

      Yes and no,  the rate of an issued bond is set, and it then trades at a base point on the bond market.  If you raise the federal rate only the bond traders are affected as new bonds trade higher making older bonds with a coupon rate less than current bonds less attractive so the base points rise and fall depending on market conditions.   Market drives the coupon rate more than the fed.  Actually  raising the federal rate makes treasury bonds more attractable and therefore state and municipal bonds have to issue a higher coupon rate of return, but that doesn’t affect the interest states or municipalities pay on current debt issued coupons because it’s already been issued.  So it’s not cut and dry.

      The positive side is states must become more conservative when issuing bonds to cover projects.  If the state has to pay a coupon rate of 6% for a new project they become more conservative and spend within their budget (unless your california)  When it’s 1.5% they are almost thinking I’m borrowing money for free.

       

    • Alasdair is a metals analyst… he does not do predictions or profit from wild calls.

      He shares his analysis and gives his opinion based on them, and is one of the more experienced and competent analysts in the sector… a great source of solid background information, not a source for short term trading advice.

      I would think your podiatrist would struggle to diagnose your heart condition too.

  3. Gold and Goldstocks are the biggest opportunity in the next few years ! 2020 some goldstock could be 1000Baggers. You can now buy for 0,10; 0,20; 0,30  Dollar what you can 2020 sell for 100,200,300 Dollar! http://gebert-trade.weebly.com/1000-bagger-potential.html

  4. There is no way the COTs data is so corrupt that the following wont happen over next 3weeks (yes previous post I was 2 weeks early, got smoked on my March GDX Puts) but….

    These are historic huge short positions by Commercials. Specs (dumb money) is on the exact bipolar side.  If this plays out, next 2-3 weeks will be a huge downdraft as they cover at >10% returns.

    Gold here (Silver very close to it): Enormous Shorts!

    So the “Fiat Play”? Puts on April GDX and Overbought PAAS (little riskier here).

     

    • Yes my money is on the manipulators.  Hopefully gold will be back under $1150.  income tax time 😉  augggghhhhhh i forgot i owe money!

    • sure looks like stackers are about to take it up the wazoo once again. Happy to be short here along for another cartel ride to $$$.

    • @Au15xAg,

      Yes we have seen this set-up at the Comex many times before. The result was always the same: It takes  4-6 weeks until the Commercials have covered their shorts. Gold to drop 100-120 US-$. The HUI will lose around 15%. Last week I sold 60% of my gold mining shares, but kept the speculative ones such as Kirkland, Gowest, Dalradian, Aureus, Troy res, Golden star, Brazil res,  MAG silver and Endeavour silver. They might drop, too, but their spread is rather high.

      Btw, people who claim that central banks have lost or will lose control are idiots. The ECB is more powerful than ever, because now fully backed by ALL European governments.

    • Dismiss this chart (a perfect visual of the Bank set ups to fleece the Specs) at your peril… there is no way (short term) this is resolved without a big leg down (banks prime the pump and the Specs panic and sell the longs as the banks cover the shorts)… JPM runs the show and will not get run over, although they’ll think twice about trying it again in this environment.

      Been short silver (2x) for a couple of weeks (and long 2x in Dec) without a nervous minute, as the banks suck in a few more Specs for slaughter.

      After that, it could very well be clear sailing for sitting tight on your PM investment of choice.

    • Mitt is a washed up moron!  Go home Mitt Please!!!  Trump woke up the sleeping giant.  HELLO Mitts rally’s were 500, Trumps are 20,000+.  Mitt you lost, you lost terribly, we didn’t care where you were the last 4 years, and we don’t want to see you surface!

    • Wow.  I think that gave me my annual dose of sarcasm all in one huge blast!  lol

      As to Romney, he would have made a FAR better president than Obonehead.  Yes, he would have been far from ideal but don’t look now, kids, the ideals don’t much run for office any more.  They can’t stand the pay cut.

       

  5. The smart money has been selling into this latest S&P 500/DOW rip, and needs a new home……I wonder where it will go to stay safe and warm?

     

    Keep betting against gold and silver because a Chart (a graphical depiction of past market manipulations) says so.

     

    That being said, you are stupid to buy any paper products except T.P. and the like.

    • Why not try a gay chatroom if manlove is what you seek, arUgayX….

       

      You ever figure out that past present and future are 3 different things? You made a fool of yourself 2 weeks ago making fun of people because you are too stupid to read…..You must love being wrong and making a fool of yourself. Keep up the good work!

       

       

    • Nobody knows what the price of gold and silver will be today, tomorrow or a week from now. Anyone pretending to know based on “technical analysis” is really kidding themselves. The price will most likely do what the least amount of people think it will do. Charts and wave theories be damned.

    • gogetter…..

       

      That is my point exactly. Using a graphical depiction of past market manipulations (A CHART) is hardly a good indicator of the future. It’s amazing that fools still believe they can ‘chart’ a manipulated market.

       

      I still remember completing my ‘charting training’ back in 2012 I believe. The Charts all predicted a massive crash, the candles were following the lower bollinger band down like a waterfall……anyone looking at that knew the shEEt was about to hit the fan, even a charting neophyte like myself……EVEN THE FED, WHO STARTED QE3….. 1 WEEK LATER!

       

      Thankfully, I learned the ABJECT STUPIDITY OF TRYING TO CHART A MANIPULATED MARKET RIGHT THEN AND THERE…… many others still have not learned a thing….
       

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