Persistently Negative GOFO: The End of the Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking System is Near!

Negative GOFO is now the norm, not the exception.  In fact, since the price bottom at $1180 on June 28th of last year, there have been 229 market days. Of those days, GOFO has been negative for 133 of them or 58% of the time!  GOFO has been in positive territory just 42% of the time or 96 days.  For the previous 24.5 years, GOFO had only been negative for just 7 days.
Now, after the massive and counter-intuitive price slam, it’s negative nearly 60% of the time?!?
The “new normal” of negative GOFO is, in fact, symptomatic of extreme physical tightness and empty vaults in London.  Knowing this and the clear correlation of GOFO with price (that we will demonstrate below), you should adjust your trading strategies accordingly. For those of us who are stacking only, persistently negative GOFO is just another clue that the end of the fractional reserve bullion banking system is near. Whether or not that “end” comes in 2014 or 2015 matters little.  It is coming.

 

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Submitted by T. Ferguson, TFMetals Report:

As you know, we’ve been monitoring this since last summer. The trend continues and the effect on price is obvious.

As we begin, let’s first review. Remember that negative GOFO essentially means gold in the hand is more valuable than dollars in the hand or, put another way, holders of physical gold are reluctant to offer their gold out for lease in exchange for dollars. This makes negative GOFO a signal of extreme physical tightness, particularly in London and for the standard, 400-ounce, London good delivery bars.

The LBMA publishes historical records of GOFO rates going back to 1989. In reviewing this information, we find that negative GOFO is a very rare occurrence. In fact, of all the market days between January 1989 and July 2013, GOFO was only negative for seven days total.  Considering that’s about 6,000 days, being negative for just 7 equates to about 0.117% of the time.

Of course, we all know what has happened lately. In a desperate attempt to MOPE their way through the current quantitative easing madness, the Central Banks have enforced a counter-intuitive raid on the price of gold since October of 2012, driving price down from $1800 to a low of $1180 on June 28, 2013. This extreme and desperate move only served to increase global demand for physical metal and, not surprisingly, has depleted the availability of metal in London. Remember what Ken Hoffman of Bloomberg Industries told us last December:

 

1200x540_HEROESSo, in hindsight, it should not have been surprising when GOFO flipped to negative on July 8, 2013 after being positive every day since November 24, 2008. It should also comes as no surprise that negative GOFO is now the norm, not the exception. In fact, since the price bottom at $1180 on June 28th of last year, there have been 229 market days. Of those days, GOFO has been negative for 133 of them or 58% of the time!  GOFO has been in positive territory just 42% of the time or 96 days. Again, you must note that for the previous 24.5 years, GOFO had only been negative for just 7 days. Now, after the massive and counter-intuitive price slam, it’s negative nearly 60% of the time?!?

<It’s important to note here that some Cartel apologists have written that this can all be explained by low interest rates. If that’s the case, why has the Federal Reserve policy of “ZIRP” been in place since 2009 yet GOFO only went negative in July of 2013?>

And here’s another curious item…GOFO rates in London have a clear tendency to flip negative during Comex delivery months in New York. Now why would that be? I’m open to hearing any explanation outside of “extreme physical tightness”. If you can come up with one after reviewing the chart below, please post your theory in the comments section.

So, here’s your updated chart. The green rectangles denote periods of negative GOFO and higher prices. The red rectangles denote periods of positive GOFO and lower prices. The black rectangles at the top of the chart denote Comex delivery months and the numbers in the bubbles denote overall price change for each period.

Cumulatively, during the five periods of negative GOFO, price has risen $356 for an average move of $71.20. For the four periods of positive GOFO, price has fallen $274 for an average of $68.50. Given this clear correlation, it should come as no surprise that GOFO, after being negative for nearly six weeks from April 3 to May 19, flipped back to positive on May 20. In the six market days since, the price of gold has declined by $36 from $1294 to the current $1258.

What’s ahead? Clearly, more price weakness. As long as GOFO remains positive, there is plenty of leasable gold available for the bullion banks to utilize in raiding price. However, deliveries of June Comex gold begin on Friday of this week so we can be relatively certain that GOFO will be flipping back to negative sometime in the next two weeks. Once it does, the current selling pressure will abate and price will begin to recover.

An average positive-GOFO move of $68 would drop price back toward $1230. An average negative-GOFO rally of $71 in June/July would then push price back higher toward $1300 and the all-important red trendline on this chart:

Again, these are just averages and I’m not predicting an imminent drop to $1230…though that’s only $28 from here. The point of this is to remind you again of the clear, current correlation of GOFO with price trend AND, more importantly, remind you again of The Big Picture:

“You could go into a vault in London a couple of years ago and they were packed to the rafters with gold and the gold would trade from me to you to somebody else. You can walk in those vaults today and they’re virtually empty. All the gold has been transferred out of London. 26,000,000 ounces has gone to Switzerland where it’s been recast into a higher grade and shipped off to Hong Kong and then into China, never to return. So the most interesting thing, especially as we look into 2014, is if there ever is interest in gold again, and I’m not saying there is or isn’t, that gold is just not there anymore.”

— Ken Hoffman, Head of Metals and Mining for Bloomberg Research on Bloomberg Television, December 13, 2013

I remain convinced that the “new normal” of negative GOFO is, in fact, symptomatic of extreme physical tightness and empty vaults in London. Knowing this and the clear correlation of GOFO with price, you should adjust your trading strategies accordingly. For those of us who are stacking only, persistently negative GOFO is just another clue that the end of the fractional reserve bullion banking system is near. Whether or not that “end” comes in 2014 or 2015 matters little. It is coming, regardless, and we should continue to look at these manipulated and suppressed prices as one last gift from the soulless central bankers who have plundered our national treasure and set our posterity on a course of permanent debt enslavement.

TF

 

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Comments

  1. It’s all horseshit everywhere you look. Just look at the stock market today. Full Retard doesn’t even describe it.
     
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-29/stocks-surge-record-highs-worst-economic-growth-3-years

  2. BayofPigs
     
    You are right. The Central Bankers though are losing trust in one another concerning their Gold Reserves. Real truths are not being told. The U S Treasury market will soon collapse and the rigged stock market will collapse with it. I do tire of the rhetoric here BOP, I guess it is new news to the Newbies that post here. The Shit hitting the fan is well on it’s way.
    Ranger
     

    • I’ve had with all this stuff. All I can say to anyone here, including you Ranger, is good luck. I mean it too. Things are so far gone now, that nothing good will ever come of it. Everyone should just try to make the best of it at this point.

    • @Ranger : There is a poster on Greg Hunter’s website which has been feeding some information regarding when the SHTF from a high level banker.  His date is around July 16th even though I’ll hold my breath since a lot of predictions have passed with no events. 
      However, what makes me think he could be close is the FreeGold website recently posted that “Gold Freed, At Last” .  So the wheels appear to be in motion for something big to happen in the metals markets. 
      This could turn into a really long and hot summer.

    • Don’t  get too excited PB, they have been saying this for the last 2 years.

    • @taketheblindersoff : Actually they have been saying this for over a decade but the drum beat got much louder starting around 2009.  Something has changed in the past two or three months and as someone that lives in the dollar dominated currency land it’s quite unnerving.  While I believe that the PM prices should be much higher I don’t want this to happen due to a catastrophic blow to the dollar.  This is my concern.. 

    • PowerBall … “PM prices should be much higher I don’t want this to happen due to a catastrophic blow to the dollar.”
       
      You can’t be serious. There’s no way banknotes (of any brand) can continue on much longer without disastrous depreciation to keep them in circulation.

      The fundamental construction of the banknote scheme mathematically explodes once interest service burden passes a critical point and it’s abundantly clear it’s reached that juncture. Your ‘concern’ is forgone. The ‘blow to the dollar’ (and renminbi and ruble and yen and all the rest) is ‘baked into the cake’.

    • @Ranger
       
      “The Central Bankers though are losing trust in one another concerning their Gold Reserves.”
       
      WHAT?  No honor among thieves?  Say it ain’t so, Ranger!  ;-)
       

    • Well these guys certainly aren’t giving gold a good write up or chance in the years ahead. $700, and ultimately down to $250 by 2020-2023?
      http://pro.dentresearch.com/SLHTR_BEL_IES/EBNBQ552?
      I guess in the end only time will tell who will ultimately be proven right….

  3. Just listened to this:   http://redalertpolitics.com/2014/05/29/talk-shot-host-veteran-montel-williams-bashes-obama-va-scandal/
    I have a new found respect for Montel Williams after listening to this and you should also even if your left, right or in the middle.
     
    Thank you Montel for sticking up for me and the rest of the veterans out there.

  4.  

    Iranian commander says collapse of US empire is near
     
    Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Photo: REUTERS
    The deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Brig.-Gen. Hossein Salami said that the US’s status in the world has deteriorated and that its collapse is near.
    “Today nowhere in the Muslim world” does anyone pull out “a red carpet for American officials and that’s why [US President Barack] Obama secretly” showed up at Bagram military base in Afghanistan without first letting President Hamid Karzai know, said Salami according to a report by Iran’s Fars news agency
     
    http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Iranian-commander-says-collapse-of-US-empire-is-near-354818

    • Makes me wonder if this guy is like “Baghdad Bob”.  Remember that guy?  He was Saddam’s spokes-mouth.  He was the one who was denying that there were ANY American troops in Iraq during Desert Storm as bombs were falling on Baghdad, explosions rocked the room he was in, and dust drifted down from the ceiling while the ceiling lamps swayed back and forth.
       

  5. My 2 scents worth
    To use a great line from the Princess Bride—-
    “Life is pain, your highness. Anyone who tells you different is selling something”
    Taking this to its logical conclusion, anyone who tells you  your precious metals is going to the moon (relieving you of your pain in buying silver at $35) is selling something.
      What’s for sale?
    Books, phyzz, opinions or some chartistic masturbatory hogwash that makes the writer look smarter than the average droid while selling a subscription,  is lying to us, delusional, or both.
     Sorry to say this but some of our best people are casting about like a fly fisherman with ADHD and St Vitus dance, frothing at the mouth that their predictions are coming true.  Hey, we’ve been in this paradigm for 3 years.  It’s getting worse but all this frantic activity is exhausting.  We can only do so much to assimilate the news and not loose our minds.
     Not everyone suffers equally from delusions but most have been so beaten around the head and shoulders with frozen mackerals  this can make a person a bit  loopy.  That  includes me.
     Maybe I’m writing this as much from the fact that I’m  sitting in a hotel room in Cripple Creek, a one horse town at 10,000 ft, as well as being slightly absent from the bluster and pomposity of the Precious Metal Irregulars we read with rap attention to every word.  All I’ve seen is headlines.  Oxygen is as scarce up here as quality data is scarce on the blog rolls.
    It’s all blather.  O2 is overrated Blather is as well.
    I’ve done some thinking about the avalanche of fear porn that  floods our airwaves and have come to the conclusion that you do what you can to and leave the rest alone, or maybe to God or maybe to chance  and fate.  
    It might be time to push back against the powers that be with passive resistance.
     Maybe it’s better to just laugh in the face of these bastards who attempt to work us into a lather;  get us all wrapped around the axle and fighting amongst ourselves.  How we team up and ally ourselves has been discussed to death.
     We know what to do.  Stay the course; keep our wits about us and cull the essential data that gives us some semblance of peace of mind.  
    And have some fun,  enjoy a bit of life with good friends, a good drink at the close of a day.
    Like Charlie says.  Keep Stackin’  
    Many things of a positive nature come from just that one action.
     It has a strong and material effect on one’s state of mind and enjoyment of life
    Cheers

    • Scouting a new bug out location?

    • I agree, AG.  It IS possible to be overwhelmed by all the BS and outrage out there.  Many people can’t get past the thought that “life sucks and then we die” isn’t necessarily a joke.  One of the REAL secrets in life is that it is largely, but by no means exclusively, what we make of it.
       
      Yes, a nice drink is sitting on my PC bench next to my keyboard as I type this… a MacNaughton’s and 7 to be exact.  :-)
       

  6. PS  I just came up with a  thought
    We live in a world of Delusion, Illusion and Confusion, lacking in Knowledge
    The Wonderful World of  D.I.C.K.   
    Best solution to managing this is Knowledge?  Don’t mess with DICK 

  7. Well I just took some of my commission Fiat this afternoon and bought (13) 1/10 gold eagles from my friend Christostock over on bullionstacker.com can’t beat these low prices. Keep Stacking

    • Rake it in, Charlie!  Yet another nice addition to the stack.  :-)
       
       

    • @Ed_B  Hopefully I won’t have to sell it for an emergency anytime soon. Keep Stacking

    • I am hoping that to be the case as well, Charlie.  You’re such a great stacker that it would be good if you didn’t have to sell any metal until the time is right.  That’s likely to be one of those things that we won’t know until it’s here.  But, when it gets here, we WILL know it!  lol
       
      I got 250 VERY shiny silver Maples in the mail today and have been doing “the happy dance” for the past couple of hours.  I couldn’t keep the grin off of my face, so when my wife came home from work a few minutes ago, she took one look at me and said, “You got a package today, didn’t you?”. There’s no hiding it!  lol
       

  8. At work today a good friend of mine came up to me and asked “hey man what’ the hell is going on with these markets?” He doesn’t follow the markets all that much but he knows that the GDP print was abysmal yet stocks rallied to all-time highs. He asked me what I was buying and I told him that silver is priced pretty much below the cost of production right now so I am picking up some more physical. He said “physical pieces of silver?” I said yes and explained how he could do the same. He is going to look into it because he knows that something is just not quite right with the stock market. I sincerely hope he pulls the trigger. 
     
    I have pretty much accepted that we are in bizzaro land right now and the talking heads just keep priming the pump. I read a couple of anti-gold articles today and for some odd reason they keep pointing to “easing tensions in Ukraine” and “improving US data” as the reasons for gold’s recent price decline. WTF are these guys smoking?? It really makes me wonder if they are actually clueless or if they are purposely misleading those who may be reading their BS. 
     
    As frustrating as all of this is guys just keep stackin.’ 

    • My psychologist brother in law called today trying to get me to buy into this wonderful new stock that is going to be released. Ground floor IPO offering at $2 a share. Told him no thanks I prefer silver. He said ohh silver etf’s I have some of that. No I mean the shiny metal you hold in your hand then told him why. He had no clue his etf was leveraged 100:1 or worse.

    • @gogetter1132
       
      “He is going to look into it because he knows that something is just not quite right with the stock market.”
       
      Well, bless you for that GG.  I have a dear friend with whom I have corresponded over the Internet for several years.  We have also met in person and spent a few days time together.  I have told him all about the coming SHTF and what can be done about it.  He agrees with me but refuses to do anything about it.  Even a few rolls of dimes plus some food and water could be of immense help to him and his wife but he’s not making any moves in that direction.  I am sure that he would mention it to me if he was.  This is disheartening, to say the least.  But I have done what I can for him in this and he has to do the rest if he is to avoid whatever fate awaits the sheeple during SHTF.  I really hate to see this happen but am out of ideas to get him rolling on this and need to worry most about my own family.  :-/
       
      @MaryB
       
      “He had no clue his etf was leveraged 100:1 or worse.”
       
      But, that’s just it, Mary.  Very few ETF investors care that their metals ETFs are leveraged because they don’t want metal.  If their metals ETF had zero metals backing them, they would be just fine with that.  They want a paper investment that tracks the prices of these metals, that they can buy and sell with a few mouse clicks, that has no storage or shipping fees, and that is very unlikely to be stolen by burglars or home invaders.  No, they really don’t “get it”.  They don’t know that when the SHTF, none of these ETFs will retain ANY meaningful value unless they have physical metal in their vaults.  Most claim exactly that but these claims are very likely exaggerated.  If they really are leveraged 100:1, then 1% of their value is the max that they can retain when the SHTF.
       

    • @Ed_B 
       
      I have a very good friend that is exactly like what you just described. He agrees with me on the level of corruption within our government and banking system yet he won’t buy any silver. This is a guy who is fairly well off and owns several investment properties. I told him that only about 1% of Americans own any physical silver and/or gold and that it would be a good idea if he allocated at least 10%-15% of his net worth into the metals. He told me that “owning gold is like rooting for inflation.” At that point I knew he was a lost cause. This guy is very savvy from a financial standpoint but why is it that he cannot grasp the importance of owning physical silver and/or gold? I still converse with him on a daily basis but we only talk about the stock market. He is more than happy to tell me about the 30% gains he is making in that arena. I love the guy and wish him and his family the best. I just wish he could see what is coming as clearly as we can. 
       
       

    • gogetter1132 … “I just wish he could see what is coming as clearly as we can. ”
       
      It may well be that your friend is too comfortable in his state of corruption and too predisposed against seeing his condition as one of turpitude, that your attempts to ‘rescue’ him are antithetical from his view.

      “The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.” Rothschild Brothers of London (1863)

      Said another way …

      “When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.” –Frederic Bastiat

    • @gogetter1132
       
      “He told me that “owning gold is like rooting for inflation.”
       
      There is a HUGE difference between rooting for something bad to happen and recognizing that it is going to happen whether we like it or not… and then DOING something about it to protect our wealth for our families.  The “logic” of this fellow’s reply is basically, “if I ignore it, it won’t harm me”.  Of course, he doesn’t see it this way but that’s pretty much what he is saying.  I have yet to see ANY problem of ANY kind deflected by ignoring it.  In my experience, problems only get bigger, more expensive, and harder to solve when ignored.
       
      Maybe this would appeal more to his financial sense… tell him that gold and silver constitute an asset class and that any well diversified portfolio should include them.  They add that risk is highly reduced by holding these in our own hands rather than allowing someone else to hold them.  If that doesn’t reach him, then he is unreachable and will surely become a victim of his own normalcy bias.  This is terribly unfortunate and completely unnecessary.  This is a coming tragedy that is almost completely avoidable.  A little SHTF financial planning and action to implement that plan are all that is required.
       
      While inflation IS a problem today (shopped for food, energy, insurance, health care, tuition, or paid your taxes lately?) and will become a much worse one in the not too distant future, it is not the only problem out there.  Bank holidays, bank bail-ins, derivative market implosion, and currency devaluations are all out there.  The economic and financial pots are simmering and, in come cases, boiling over.  Just ask the folks who live in Venezuela and Argentina.  Their local currency has been devalued by 50% or so in the past year.  Like the US, those countries have badly managed their currencies and their economies.  Unlike the US, however, their currencies are not the primary world reserve currency.  There is very little demand for their currencies outside their own countries. When they wish to purchase oil and other commodities, they first must buy US dollars, as those are what most other countries want when trading internationally.  With US dollars, one can buy virtually anything that is for sale just about anywhere in the world.  While this is true currently, it is about the change, and when it does the S will indeed HTF, not only in the US but in many places around the world as well.  Those countries sitting on large gold holdings or that have gold and silver in the ground, will be able to pull themselves out of a US dollar failure.  Those who do not will look a lot like Greece does today… or worse, if that is possible.
       
      Many people refer to spreading knowledge of the coming SHTF scenario and what to do about it as “fear mongering”.  We tend not to see it as such, however.  To many of us, it is TRUTH telling and preparing for coming hard times.  Once people are informed, I have no problem with them making any choice that seems best to them.  We all do that in our own ways.  But when people who are otherwise good folks make decisions that are not informed, well, that’s just plain sad because they are betting their financial future on the continuance of an unsustainable system.  What part of the word “unsustainable” are they not getting?  My guess is that they saw yesterday, they are seeing today, and they ASSUME (Ass U Me) that tomorrow will look exactly the same!  But there is a big chance that it will not and if it does not and they have not prepared for it, they will be totally and completely hosed.  That’s a damned shame but what can we do about it?  Unfortunately, not a whole lot.
       
      “He is more than happy to tell me about the 30% gains he is making in that arena.”
       
      Yes, I recognize the type.  I too am an investor.  I make money in the stock market that supplements my retirement income, so know how seductive it can be to earn 20, 30, and even 40% on one’s money in a single year.  2013 was especially good for this.  One of my mutual funds returned almost 31% in the past year.  Others were in the 20-25% appreciation rate range.  That was good as it provided me with the funds to stack more silver and a little gold.  But, unlike many investors, I am well aware of the fact that this largess was provided by the US Fed via their QE programs.  In short, the US stock market IS inflated.  This is not growth, it is inflation, and it has been brought on by massive injections of very cheap freshly printed US currency.  But, knowing this does not prevent me from taking advantage of it.  It does, however, tell me rather strongly that this is not sustainable and that it WILL change because it MUST change.  I do not count on this continuing for the long term, as so many others do.  I have cut back my market exposure, raised cash, and used some of it to buy PMs.  I am now at about the point where my investments will do well if the market continues to perform decently and my PMs will do well if the market experiences another Lehman Bros. moment.  Either way, my financial future is in hand… and this is a pretty nice place to be.  Hopefully, my PM stacking brothers and sisters out there are heading in this same direction.  :-)
       

    • I have not found one ETF leveraged 100:1, maybe there are some out there, but any of the ones i have looked at are 1:1.  Certainly there is no redemption for the average joe, but that is not the point of an etf.

  9. It’s noteworthy that the UK and US governments and bank cohorts believed that the Chinese were ‘permanent debt slaves’ after the ‘Opium Wars’. That proved a self-delusion and any presumption that the American People will be ‘permanently enslaved’ in debt may well resolve itself in the same way. In the relatively slower paced environment of the 19th century, it took the Chinese a hundred years or so to ‘escape’. In today’s scenario of rapid communications and transportation, it could take Americans far less time. Also, given their heritage of Liberty as a foundational life-principal, impetus will be all the more powerful.

  10. EdB   Jameson’s for me last night.  Sometimes my best thinking comes after a dram or two.  It sanitizes the neurons of a bit of the horse crap that builds up during the day
    Mary B  Looking for a better bug out location?   It seems that way.
    There may be a simpler solution to the stuff that inundates us on a daily basis
    It’s kind of like how one deals with rain.  There are 3 ways
    1. Complain that someone is telling you its raining when they are pissing down your neck
    2.  Sit around in the pouring rain, moaning about your fate, looking like a drowned dog when a good umbrella is near at hand
    3.  Strip nekkid and run around in the rain, alarm the neighbors,  enjoy a free shower, while setting out some pails to harvest free water.
    Well, that’s what it seems like to me.
    Rain   God’s gift to  incipient cleanliness.

    • @AGXIIK
       
      “Jameson’s for me last night.  Sometimes my best thinking comes after a dram or two.  It sanitizes the neurons of a bit of the horse crap that builds up during the day”
       
      Indeed so, Bro.  I never acquired a taste for the Irish whiskys.  Not sure why.  The Scots, Americans, and Canadians all make great whiskey / whisky, however.  Seagrams 7, MacNaughtons, and Lauder’s are all very nice and reasonably priced.  When I want something really special, I go for a good single malt, such as Glenfiddich 15 year old.  I gave a bottle of this to my favorite uncle for his 80th birthday and it really made his day.  He’s been a scotch sipper for a long time now and this hit the spot very nicely.  For $45-50 a bottle, it is difficult to do better.
       
      “Rain   God’s gift to  incipient cleanliness.”
       
      Indeed… but it’s MUCH more than that as well.  It makes life on this planet possible.  :-)
       

  11. Uh, dancing in the rain?
     For those of a prudish mein, avert your eyes.
     Proverbs 1616, that means you. 
    But you are welcome to dance

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