Marshall Swing: Specs Pile on the Shorts- Expect a Rally Before the Cartel Attacks!

cartel shortsIn silver, we see the large specs latching onto a huge number of shorts.  So, price is going down and the specs are buying shorts?  What is up with that? 
Remember that I mentioned this last week as well and on the surface we see almost 9,500 shorts they have scarfed up in the last two reporting periods.  My guess, from hindsight of years of course, is those shorts are not going to be allowed to stand so there will probably be a rally in the metals price to dislodge those shorts before resumption of the downward price target by the commercials. 


Submitted by Marshall Swing:

I usually like to get my report to the Doc done on Sunday but sometimes things get hectic on the weekends so here I am on Monday morning and thankfully metals prices are stagnant so I can say what I say about a temporary price rise since there is little change since Friday close.

 

So what happened this past COT?  Remember to look at the price charts below as I talk about the numbers in the tables, and also be aware the COT week closes about 2:30 EST on Tuesday afternoons if I remember correctly.

 

Precious metal prices went down, down, down, that is pretty easy to see on the charts!  I guess that makes me a man of real genius by stating the obvious so I could do a Bud Light commercial, right?  Actually, I do not drink the stuff as I prefer the dark, rich beer which goes so well with my appreciation of the metals!

 

A quick glance at both tables reveals a serious short covering, easy money grab, for the commercials in particularly the producer merchant of the gold variety.

 

In silver, we see the large specs latching onto a huge number of shorts.  So, price is going down and the specs are buying shorts?  What is up with that?

 

Remember that I mentioned this last week as well and on the surface we see almost 9,500 shorts they have scarfed up in the last two reporting periods.  My guess, from hindsight of years of course, is those shorts are not going to be allowed to stand so there will probably be a rally in the metals price to dislodge those shorts before resumption of the downward price target by the commercials.  Remember last week, I reported all the new open interest purchased and that those purchases were into a price decline?  Here we see silver adding more than 3,000 new contracts this week and once again into a price decline.

 

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In this business, psychological sentiment is everything as far as price goes and the world now has disdain for the metals so they are throwing money into bonds and stocks and I expect the DOW and S&P to begin to set new records in the very near future and possibly beginning with this coming Friday’s monthly jobs report maybe even with the weekly jobs report on Thursday.  It will also be interesting to see how the previous month’s job reports are adjusted.

 

But wait!!  Silver increased contracts?  Yes, those very smart small specs added a whopping 1,658 new longs and the silver swap dealers 1,076 new longs.  They intend to profit as price is raised and the fresh shorts of the large specs are hammered.

 

Overall, the silver commercials dropped around 20,000 total visible shorts into the price crash and the producer merchant nearly 30,000 shorts covered revealing who the true culprit was.

 

In gold, we see the true focus of last period’s price crash and it is the longs of the large specs dropping a total of over 14,000 contracts into the short covering price crash.  However, those large specs went after a huge number of fresh shorts and they are going to be punished for sure.  Notice the small specs selling longs at the top and covering shorts at the bottom.  Smart guys who read my reports!

 

Now for the REAL STUNNER!

 

Notice the gold swap dealers adding over 14,000 new total shorts.  They are almost 10,000,000 ounces, I repeat, they are almost 10 MILLION ounces net short now.

 

They are not in this game to lose money.  Yes, they hedge, but that much “hedging” means price is going to go down, down, down at some point as they are the prophets in the know forcing their will on the people.

 

Almost sounds like an advertisement for Ron Paul or something, huh?

 

Until next week, stay thirsty for physical, my friends!  ;)

silverCOT COT goldCOT gCOT Scrooge


Comments

    • My question is why this guy leaves out THE most important piece of info from the recent COT report, that Commercials covered an historic amount of shorts.
      http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2014/03/comex-commercial-traders-covering-gold-shorts-in-a-hurry.html
      His mind is made up, don’t confuse him with facts.

    • Someone explain why the commercials would want to dislodge the shorts before resuming the downtrend. It is because they are able to accumulate more shorts cheaper?

    • Accumulating shorts then forcing price low in a short covering HFT price crash is their typical way of making the big bucks.  it happens really fast then even those speculators with close stops are not able to effectively sell at the stop price and have to sell far cheaper a few minutes later once the dust clears from the initial MAMMOTH order of the bullion banks.
       
      They do not like sharing the profits with speculators…

  1. A government with the power of the FIAT Debt printing press can cover naked shorts directly or reimburse their bullions banks forever in order to suppress these prices.
    What’s a billion to these people.
     Pocket lint.
    Losses are immaterial. If profit and capitalist motives are clearly thrown under the bus; if the bullion banks are backstopped on every losing trade; if bullion banks are allowed to make mega front run profits on every winning trade; if bullion banks are told to cough up $1 billion in fines for their totally criminal activities to keep the game going
    , we are not going to catch a break. We can’t join them. We can’t get away from them. It’s just the way it is.

    Until COMEX and LBMA are bankrupt, totally repudiated by the Chinese and others for failure to deliver PMs, when failure to deliver shows this fraud as a true default, we won’t catch a break.  Even afterwards, I am thinking Force Majeure will be called and the game will continue. When even I can’t figure out what billion is and what a trillion is; to these people it’s just Digi-Fiat.
    When a T or B in front of -illion means nothing because it’s printed at interest with a complete abandonment of meaningfulness, we are forced to sit at the side lines until the shite hits the fan. I’m going long on fans. Shite is free for the picking.

    Ever since the Fed refused to ship Germany’s gold we know the faux default is apparent to anyone with eyes.  Even this AM Michael Lewis, a stock trader, admitted on FUAX news that the entire stock market is manipulated by illegal HFT front running of the equities.
    But no one is say BOO on the MSM that the even larger and more vital markets representing precious metals are manipulated and have been so for 150 years, whether traded in physical metal by the US government with the silver smash of 1883 or this morning with some sort of HFT trading that damaged the markets for any commodity
    We stackers been buying multi million dollar tickets to the move Fantasia.  Dumbo’s played by Obama and the sorcerer is Jamie Dimon.  Nuff sed Where’s my popcorn?

    • In Fantasia, I think the way this will work out is one of 2 ways:
       
      1) the powers that be will decide it’s time for a reset
      or
      2) when the physical supply actually does run out then the jig is up. I mean, has anyone had any issues with filling their gold or silver order and having to wait more than 10 days to receivie it? The day that it says ‘out of stock’ online and/or you can’t walk into a gold/silver coin shop and purchase then it’s business as ususal.
       
      It seems to take sheeple a long time to wake up.

    • That quote is just priceless AGX!!
       
      “When a T or B in front of -illion means nothing because it’s printed at interest with a complete abandonment of meaningfulness, we are forced to sit at the side lines until the shite hits the fan. I’m going long on fans. Shite is free for the picking.”

    • The sheep can only be pushed so far into a corner, more ad more are waking up. I was just asked by a group of formerly antigun ladies in town to take them to the range and teach them to use a pistol. They know what is coming and they voted Obama twice.

    • @AGXIIK
       
      “we are not going to catch a break. We can’t join them. We can’t get away from them. It’s just the way it is.”
       
      One could paraphrase the laws of thermodynamics similarly:  You can’t win, you can’t tie, and you can’t get out of the game”!   ;-)
       
      @taketheblindersoff
       
      “It seems to take sheeple a long time to wake up.”
       
      Most of them don’t wake up until that final second or two in the slaughter-house. THEN they wake the F up.  Not that it does them any good, though.
       
      @MaryB
       
      “ They know what is coming and they voted Obama twice.”
       
      Then screw them.  Let them cook in their own juices.  They asked for this and they got it.  Well earned, well deserved, IMO.
       
       

  2. Any thoughts on if Marshall’s swing is a base hit, foul tip, or a clean strike?

  3. Marshall bats clean up,  making sure when COT elephant craps in the market, it doesn’t stink up the joint.
    If it smells, Marshall tells.   
    Right Marshall?
    Tulving’s crash and burn is the canary in the mindfield. When these MSM advertising bullion banks offering lines of credit to trade the markets and will hold your physical as collateral all got toes up when delivery is an impossibility then the fat will be in the fire
    Just watch the boob toob for their names.

    • You know, I should record this, i think i can do as good a job as Sinatra and my message is more pertinent now than is his….
       
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueIRPDAbPNY
      I Get A kick Out Of You
      I get no kick from Dimon.
      Mere alcohol doesn’t thrill me at all.
      So tell me why should it be true
      That I get a kick out of you, Blythe?

      Some, they may go for cocaine.
      I’m sure that if I took even one sniff
      It would bore me terrifically, too.
      Yet I get a kick out of you, Blythe.

      I get a kick every time I see
      Her standing there before me.
      I get a kick though it’s clear to see
      She obviously does not adore me.

      I get no kick in a plane.
      Flying too high with some other gal in the sky
      Is my idea of nothing to do.
      Yet I get a kick – um Blythe gives me a boost – YES! I get a kick out of you, Blythe.

    • So you agree with Marshall that the short time price of gold is going to be an infield (short-term) pop-fly leading to a double play taking out the shorts and longs on 1st & 2nd but the physical holders on 3rd will eventually have a chance to steal home?

    • The other possibility to consider is they have gotten the hedge funds to buy those shorts and they might just buy a ton more…
      This strategy was employed also in the run down to the $18s last year.
      Once they have everyone convinced price is going to $15 or lower and the hedgees pile on and the banks take the longs to the hedgees shorts and they can then blame the hedge funds for the collapse.
      Plausible deniability… ;)

  4. @strannick
     
    Well, me thinks Gene wrote his article a little too quickly and forgot that in a September 2012 COT week the commercials short covered over 29,000 contracts and where did price go then?
     
    Down, down, down…
     
    Did Gene predict price to go down?
     
    Nope, nope, nope…
     
    ;)

  5. The rich bastards can do what they want to the price, when it gets to low the shelves will get stripped bare because the miners will all be shut down. Then they will try to get  a law passed making private ownership illegal to strip what we own. The war will be on then.

  6. MaryB   I am putting the final touches on 8-10 pistol exercises that can be used with rifles.  These are either of my own composition, taken from Front Site training manuals, my firearms instructor’s drills and two soldiers who developed some CQB drills while in Afghanistan.  Doc will post them once I send the in the next day or so.

  7. Seems as though Toby has a similar view of how this likely plays out. The vampire squid wants 1000 gold, then that’s what they will likely get.
    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/2014-03-31-Commodities-Another-Leg-Up-with-Gold-Setup-for-a-Final-Takedown.html?sitetype=fullsite

    • one thing i do not see anyone writing about is IF gold and silver price go low enough WHEN do the foreigners who bought PHYSICAL make the decision to dump their PHYSICAL on the market and accept their losses?
       
      think about it….  ;)
       
      China and Arabs and Indians fear the worst then move their physical to market just in time for the bullion banks to grab it all up?
       
      Thoughts?

  8. Marshall  No homerun for you.  No soup either   From the nazi
    Home runs lead to steroids.
     steroids lead to MLB investigations.  
    MLB investigations lead to no Hall of Fame.
    No Hall of Fame leads to  taking long showers in the AM with Pete Rose.   
    Not good Marshall
    Take the singles, fungoes and walks.
    there’s where the big bucks is.

    • Its a long season…  :)
       
      Need to find my Louisville slugger!  Its a Mark McGuire commemorative that an ex bought me and I use it for prowlers ;) )))

  9. Marshall
    the thoughts about the strong physical hands like China India etc puking up their gold seems contraindicatory
    If they saw some last gasp of the western bankers trying to the prices down even lower, they might just get a little testy and unleash some serious cans of whoop-ass on us. They have lots of means to do such right up to and including a few tactical nukes  Currency and commodity wars lead to hot wars and that sort of price rigging is a clear and present danger to their well being.
    They will have so much gold and silver that a slam will be like just another confimation that they made the right decision, will hoover up whatever is left, allow the COMEX and LBMA to go completely bankrupt and vindicate their DNA level reasoning that gold and silver are real money.  The west would end up giving itself a grievous self inflicted wound that would end life as we know it.
    China and India were the pinnacle of civilization when my ancestors were rooting around in caves, using stone knives and bear claws to grub a living from the boonies. They could send us back there if they chose.
    Besides which, if they sold their gold and silver what would they buy Perish the thought! 0>;
     

    • Its going to be interesting, to say the least.
       
      If that Karen Hudes is correct and Yamashita’s gold is in Hawaii then the Chinese are going to look like peanut vendors when they go to the IMF and want SDRs they may find themselves with 15 to 1 USD to yuan instead of 6 to 1 ;) )))
       
      Maybe they will dump gold then?  :D

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