Something BIG is going down. First Blythe appeared on CNBC 2 weeks ago claiming that JP Morgan holds its metals positions on behalf of clients, then the CFTC moved 1 step closer to finally implementing position limits last week with their meeting discussing swaps, and today we have the kicker:
JP Morgan adjusted 5 million ounces of silver into dealer (registered) vaults Thursday, increasing their registered inventories 500% OVERNIGHT!!!
COMEX WAREHOUSE SILVER INVENTORY UPDATE 4/27/12
| SILVER | Report Date: 4/27/2012 | |||||||
| Troy Ounce | Activity Date: 4/26/2012 | |||||||
| DEPOSITORY | PREV TOTAL | RECEIVED | WITHDRAWN | NET CHANGE | ADJUSTMENT | TOTAL TODAY | ||
| BRINK’S, INC. | ||||||||
| Registered | 14,016,239.700 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 386,262.660 | 14,402,502.360 | ||
| Eligible | 10,522,517.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -386,262.660 | 10,136,254.820 | ||
| Total | 24,538,757.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 24,538,757.180 | ||
| DELAWARE DEPOSITORY | ||||||||
| Registered | 2,211,816.215 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2,211,816.215 | ||
| Eligible | 21,222,059.921 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 21,222,059.921 | ||
| Total | 23,433,876.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 23,433,876.136 | ||
| HSBC BANK, USA | ||||||||
| Registered | 4,620,542.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4,620,542.390 | ||
| Eligible | 37,679,888.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 37,679,888.050 | ||
| Total | 42,300,430.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 42,300,430.440 | ||
| JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA | ||||||||
| Registered | 1,268,416.700 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4,991,883.650 | 6,260,300.350 | ||
| Eligible | 13,351,834.750 | 624,783.900 | 0.000 | 624,783.900 | -4,991,883.650 | 8,984,735.000 | ||
| Total | 14,620,251.450 | 624,783.900 | 0.000 | 624,783.900 | 0.000 | 15,245,035.350 | ||
| SCOTIA MOCATTA | ||||||||
| Registered | 6,932,622.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6,932,622.030 | ||
| Eligible | 28,822,112.540 | 596,498.830 | 0.000 | 596,498.830 | 0.000 | 29,418,611.370 | ||
| Total | 35,754,734.570 | 596,498.830 | 0.000 | 596,498.830 | 0.000 | 36,351,233.400 | ||
| TOTAL REGISTERED | 29,049,637.035 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5,378,146.310 | 34,427,783.345 | ||
| TOTAL ELIGIBLE | 111,598,412.741 | 1,221,282.730 | 0.000 | 1,221,282.730 | -5,378,146.310 | 107,441,549.161 | ||
| COMBINED TOTAL | 140,648,049.776 | 1,221,282.730 | 0.000 | 1,221,282.730 | 0.000 | 141,869,332.506 | ||
Yes, you read that chart correctly. JP Morgan’s registered silver inventories just went from 1,268,416 ounces to 6,260,300 ounces OVERNIGHT as The Morgue ADJUSTED nearly its entire customer inventory to the dealer side!
Clearly Blythe and Jamie are preparing for some massive silver delivery requests.
While the CME is now reporting inventory levels to 3 decimal places, strangely enough- once again, NO MENTION FROM THE CME OF THE MISSING 1.4 MILLION OUNCES OF REGISTERED SILVER THAT SIMPLY DISAPPEARED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE MF GLOBAL BANKRUPTCY!
As a strangely coincidental supply turned up in JPMorgan vaults almost simultaneously as the MFGlobal clients phyzz went missing, until the CME provides an update of what happened to this stolen inventory, The Doc will continue to provide the latest available info on this from the CME:
*Registered ounces of metal currently not available for delivery
as of 11/4/11 due to MFGI bankruptcy. Included in above totals.
| DEPOSITORY | Registered |
| Brinks | 210,320 |
| Delaware | 65,706 |
| HSBC | 793,734 |
| Scotia Mocatta | 351,156 |
TOTAL 1,420,916
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_silv.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_gold.gif)
Now, this is curious indeed. After smacking and shorting and suddenly coming up with 6,260,300 oz.? Makes a man glad he picked up a little phyzz. last week. Where did the silver come from? Poof! Abracadabra, magic! We’ve got all you need. Just look in our registered inventory.
CME
Crimanal Monetary Exchange
If eligible inventory is the type that is not supposed to be trifled with and registered is what is for cash calls, I wonder who was robbed to accomplish this.
This is silver that is now registered for delivery. As of yesterday, a total of 407 contracts were standing for Comex Delivery. 407 x 5000=2.03 million oz. These 4.99 million oz. more than cover this. Maybe there are a very large number ready to stand for next month as the month of April is now complete.
The bottom line here is this: Vault Volatility is increasing very rapidly. My volatility indicator has not been this high since 4-22-2010. On that day, silver was trading at 17.93. By 5-6-2010, it traded down to 17.55, (a 2% drop). That would be equivalent to a drop of 0.66 today. It promptly rallied to 19.46 (an 11% move), by 5-12-2010, before it fell back to 17.38 by 6-4-2010.
That failed 11% rally in 2010 is equivalent to a move to 34.56 from today’s price of 31.17. Also, a real bottom did not occur until 6-4-2010, but almost hit again, (bottoming at 17.45) by 7-28-2010 before the real year-end rally took hold.
IMO, because of seasonal influences, we still have a few weeks of range-bound price action. As I have previously said, high vault volatility is an early indicator of big silver price moves.
Now, Let’s play some guessing games:
The direction is pretty clear. The market is getting closer to its yearly bottom, but timing is impossible because predicting when price actually moves significantly is impossible. However, because this is happening at a relatively low price, I can be confident that we are much closer to a low than ever.
Unfortunately, we’ll be fooled again if we get too anxious. I really think price is going to linger here for another 6 weeks or so. If a rally happens, it’ll be fake and just sell back down. I’m buying physical on a regular basis regardless of paper games. Now Report To Your Nearest Coin Shop And Do Your Duty!
I wonder if this is part of the reason why the spot price was in limbo last night and then later today. Mmmmmmm Hopefully their clients want physical and then the Comex stack starts to dwindle. Then Kaboom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wishfull Thinking.
I repeatedly read how we are getting closer to a bottom, but what does that really say? With the decrease in demand and increase in supply, not to mention decrease in trading over the summer, I am betting we will be in the high to mid 20s in the near future. Yeah we are closer to a “bottom” but further than ever from a high. Don’t be fooled by watching silly silver bullet vids on you tube all day.
Wow…The COT Report Shows A Dramatic Increase in Commercial Longs and a slight decrease in Shorts. We’re almost back to a bottom on this as well. As I said in a previous post, I expect them to start increasing their shorts as silver bottoms out over the next few weeks.
Commercial Shorts are now at 70,697 contracts -323
Commercial Longs are at 48344 contracts +3821
My indicator, which takes these numbers x 5000 oz. and divides by the total comex inventory, is now at 79%. We haven’t be this low since 12-30-2011 when it was at 59.93%. That was coincident with a rally in the paper silver price from a low of 26.75 to 36.91 on 2-28-2012. We may be ready for one of these fake May rallies maybe to 36 or 37. COT REPORT 4-27-2012
I bet that was the US gov’ts pile. They claim they are servicing a client, then they up and move this big stack. A lot of us figured their ‘client’ was none other than uncle sugar. They probably just ask permisso and get cleared to take it.
FROM GOT GOLD REPORT: READ MORE
Combined Commercial Net Short positioning (LCNS) for
silver futures (including Swap Dealers) fell a quite large 4,144 lots to
a very low 22,353 contracts net short, a reduction of 15.6%, as silver
declined 86-cents or 2.3% from $31.67 to $30.81 Tuesday to Tuesday. The LCNS for gold futures also fell by 8,854 contracts or 5% to an
unusually low 167,237 contracts net short as gold edged $7.63 or 0.5%
lower to $1,641.66 Tuesday to Tuesday. This, as the open interest for
COMEX gold futures fell to its lowest level (395,389 contracts open)
since September 1, 2009 (384,703 open then). The LCNS as a percentage
of all contracts open (LCNS.TO) fell to an extremely low and
potentially contrary bullish 18.27% – the lowest since January 3 (14.9%
then).
“…To us that suggests that the Big Hedgers are not, repeat not,
positioning as though they expect gold and silver to move materially
lower. To the contrary, if the Big Hedgers thought that gold and silver
were heading much lower we would expect them to be positioning for it
with higher, not extremely low net short positions.”
Still smiling at getting OTD with ASE’s for $33.80 this week; Very pleased that Stacking has become a life habit.
I sad bit of news The US Debt Clock just hit the $16 dollar mark.
Hey fellas, I’m new to this site (which is awesome by the way!) and have only started investing in silver a few months ago. By reading all your comments from various posts, you all seem very knowledgeable, much more than myself, on the in’s and out’s of precious metals investing. I have a question that I would love your opinions on….What is the minimum amount of silver (in oz’s) you would feel comfortable with having, knowing an economic collapse was imminent? Thanks for your reply’s in advance.
Jake you say
Combined Commercial Net Short positioning (LCNS) for silver futures (including Swap Dealers) fell a quite large 4,144 lots to a very low 22,353 contracts net short, a reduction of 15.6%, as silver declined 86-cents or 2.3% from $31.67 to $30.81 Tuesday to Tuesday.
IF we where near a bottom wouldnt you think that the shorts would fall below say 8-9,000 or even less
also bere in mind the morgue can pull 10 or 20,000 shorts out of their A$$ ( thin air)
how do you account for that ?????
your thoughts PLEASE
The Bull Lion
Rothschild’s extended supply maybe? Fine tuning the timing, maybe? I would be surprised if they hae not prepared for the foreseeable paradigm change for decades already..
427 makes some good points Bull Lion. I suggest also you listen to the Chris Duane (silverbullet/silvershied) video’s. The DOC posts them as they become available. It’s about the best explanation as to the real value of silver IMO. It talks about, in one part, of how 1/10th of an ounce of silver has historically been equal to 1 day’s labor/wage. So 1 oz. was ten days of pay for lodging, food, etc. 100 oz. silver = 1,000 days pay. I think we all wish we knew how much we really need and since we’re not absolutely sure, we keep stacking. Look in the DOC’s archives and if you can’t find it go to the SGTreport. Make sure you star at the beginning of the series.
would get my pat answer, “Not enough.” I’m a long way from one of the ‘more
knowledgeable’ on here. But I read constantly, wanting to learn all the time; Have received some good coaching.
week, don’t just try. If your going to try…try and get to 100oz, then try to
get 250, etc.
Da Yooper My comment about being sad that we hit $16 trillion was more tongue in cheek. The complete abrogation of fiscal soundness by our elected leaders is reason for taking them all out and sending them to their great reward, whatever that might be. There was a provision in the Constitution that mandated the death penalty for those who debased the currency.
I’ve been following the Fed debt since the Carter Era. The debt-o-meter just keeps ticking along while all the time these jackasses in Congress continue to send us down the road to fiscal perdition. When a group of seemingly sane people intentionally commit financial suicide, and in doing so drag a few hundred million people along for the ride, it tells me there are forces that work unseen to create this chaos. Every time a politician rails against the debt, in my mind it’st just covering fire for more printing and more debt. And if we seem clueless about our debt, the idiots in Europe are about as sensible as 5 year olds juggling nitro glycerin. We will muddle along for a few more years but Europe will fail badly and messily. I don’t think our day of reckoning will come until we hit $20 trillion. Then the debt to GDP will be about 1.5 to 1. Then the S will hit the fan.
With these notions in mind, Bull Lion, I started stacking for investment purposes about 3 years ago. It was not for safety purposes but to diversify my portfolio into metals. In the last year I have been in a real race against the national and international day of reckoning to protect and hide my assets from the government and its agents.
If the price of silver and gold go up, so much the better since I am a few weeks from being pretty much ”all in with my cash and IRA assets secure and protected. Having just turned 60 my goal is capital preservation not capital accumulation. Protecting what I have is more important now.
I plan to convert these assets back to cash to pay for living needs once my cash assets are depleted and I decide to cease my business operations. I’m glad you are reading and posting on this site since it is probably one of the best on the web.
Thanks again guys, I appreciate your comments!
Da Yooper: The COT report s a tricky kinda thing. It’s an indicator (I think it’s a leading indicator, if you interpret it correctly), that shows what these criminals are doing to manipulate. As such, this means, (to me), that it’s a contrary indicator–meaning that they will decrease shorts, as the paper silver price moves down, but is starting to exhaust itself on the down-side, into the inflection point, after the trend of contract-shorting has started to exhaust itself.
Okay–that was a lot of words, so I’ll try to put it in other terms. I believe contrary indicators work best at inflection points. That means that during the trend, or “inside” of the trend, the indicator moves with the direction of paper price. Thus, shorts decrease as price drops right before they exhaust. This indicator should actually increase and show a bottom before price moves up as it will have exhausted it’s decreasing momentum and begin to move up on the increase of shorts. That’s what I’m anticipating before we see a move up in price.
If you take a look at that chart I cut and pasted from GGR, you’ll see that it could be interpreted as beginning to make a higher low in the future. Of course these are all guessing games and are fun to play when there’s nothing else to do. Once the shorts start moving up, I believe this will indicate a good case for having made an inflection point where price should be expected to move up. I expect the shorts to increase as they will go along with the up trend in price until exhaustion occurs in both, etc.
As you can see this chart, which is not what I use, shows a lower low around 12-30-2011. It will then is show a possible higher low soon (which is a guess). This, BTW is not some technical indicator based on price like some MACD line, etc. These are actual reported shorts that the criminals posted for the COT report. I guess these could be bogus too, but this is all we got to work with.
This is a chart that is the Aggregated Shorts of options and futures divided by the open interest. I like to see a more simplified chart that uses only the (commercial short futures contracts minus the long futures contracts X 5000) divided by the total silver Comex inventory.
The chart, (as a percentage of inventory), also shows the same type of characteristic of having put in a low on 12-30-2011 and is in the process of potentially showing a higher low soon. I believe this will happen sometime between now and June 15; at which time we will see some kind of fake rally in silver fail from a high of $37 or so, but rebounding from a higher low, some time after July 4th between $37 and $32 before the fall rally.
I can’t show my chart as I used to because I can’t upload it unless it has a web address in http form I guess.
I also look at Comex silver volatility. This indicator has broken to the upside indicating some kind of anticipation of future silver demand. This is also an early indicator–on the order of months.
Bull Lion, Here’s a formula for a silver goal: (95-R)(S)/p= z
Where R=Retirement age
S=Salary Required/year
Z=Ounces of Silver
P=Silver Price
As an example, Say you wanted $50,000/year to last you until you were 95. You retired at 65, when silver was priced at $50.
((95-65) X $50,000)/$50=Z = 30,000 oz.
If silver reaches $100 by the time you reach the age of 65, you’ll need only 15,000. The trouble with these calculations is that there are multiple variables to deal with as they are are fluid numbers. The other problem is that this assumes you value your wealth in dollars as it’s the gating item for the result of the calculation. Fifty thousand dollars may be only enough to buy a can of soup in a post-apocalyptic world.
You may need $50 million. However, your silver should also be worth $1 million, in this case.
Here’s an easy way to set some variables: If you make “S” your current salary or current income requirement, and P an educated guess as to what silver will be when you retire, you can get a better handle on it.
The fiat games they play.
Thanks for the formula Jake. Looks like I got some stackin to do!
Bull Lion: You can also use that formula to project how many years your current stack will sustain you if you retired today:
Assuming you are 40 years old, had 10,000 oz., you wanted $25,000/year and you retired today: The “95″ becomes “A” for The age you could attain with your current silver: ((A-R)(S))/p= z =((A-40)(25000))/31.17=10,000
Thus: (25000A-1,000,000)/31.17=10,000
And: (311700+1,000,000)/25,000=A
A=52.47years old
Similarly, Let’s say you retired today at today’s silver prices. You have 10,000 oz. and you wanted to know how much per year salary you could get if you wanted it to last until you become 95 :
((95-40)(S))/31.17=10,000
Solving for S: 311700=55S
S=$5667/year
Jake,
What you can do is go to http://www.tinypic.com get an account and you can load all the charts you want there and have a web address.
Marshall