Jim Sinclair opines on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ changes to GDP calculation announced Wednesday, which will add 3% to official US GDP (or an economy approximately the size of Belgium) by counting research, development, and copyrights as part of the GDP calculation for the first time.
Apparently the only way to delay recognition of the latest recession (for 2 quarters perhaps?) among the mainstream is to blatantly manipulate the calculation by a whopping 3%.
MOPE at its finest.
From Jim Sinclair:
Fabrication of US economic statistics are rising to new levels of MOPE never before even considered. Shame on those on financial TV that take China to task for supposed fabrication in economic statistics.
MOPE means “Management of Perspective Economics,” the New Normal. If it is not a good report spin it so it is.
I saw this on Bloomberg TV last night. It blew me away.
If you can’t raise GDP legitimately, then screw with the numbers. All this does is takes away the reliability and trust and faith in the government.
First they did this with CPI (Substitute chicken for steak, cat food for chicken, twinkies for cat food). Then unemployment (Omit long term unemployed and part timers). Now GDP (includes Research & Development expenses as productivity).
Buy gold… it is what it is.
CIGA Wolfgang Rech
US economy takes Olympic leap to add 3% to GDP By Robin Harding in Washington
July 28, 2013 4:06 pm
US economic history will be rewritten this week, as the most far-reaching methodological changes in years will add the equivalent of a country the size of Belgium to output in the world’s largest economy.
The most important change by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, to be announced on Wednesday, will be to start counting spending on research, development and copyrights as investment, and reflect pension deficits for the first time. Combined they are expected to add 3 per cent to gross domestic product..
The changes – the Olympic Games of economic numbers, taking place once every five years on average – is aimed at more accurately reflecting the modern economy and will make the US the first country to adopt a new international standard.
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times in an interview in April.
The scope of the revisions will keep economists busy for months. For example,politically sensitive figures on the size and growth of the US government will change, because the revisions have no effect on past tax revenues. At a time when Republicans argue the growth of federal government is out of control, the revisions are likely to lower federal spending as a share of GDP by half a percentage point. They should also lower federal debt as a share of GDP by about 2 percentage points from 73 per cent in 2012.
But there are also two other layers of GDP data out on Wednesday, of which the shiniest and most visible will be the least important.
The top layer is the first estimate of second-quarter growth. It is generally expected to be miserable, with the consensus estimate at an annualised rise of 1.1 per cent. Some forecasts, such as that by Dean Maki of Barclays Capital in New York, are as low as 0.5 per cent.
an incredibly powerful conglomeration of secret government agencies that seem to view Americans as the real threat.