Jim Rogers on Why Gold Could Go Lower

RogersThe Indian politicians are now trying to do their best to destroy the gold market. They’ve put on huge controls and taxes on the Indian gold market. India’s the largest buyer of gold in the world, and it’s already having an effect. So the Indians are now trying to figure out a way to make the Indians sell their gold. Now if India goes from being the largest buyer of gold, to a seller of gold—who knows how low the price of gold will go? I know it will go a lot lower. So I’m not buying gold…. yet.

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From Tekoa Da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:

I was able to reconnect this week with Jim Rogers, legendary co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, author of the recently released Street Smarts, and chairman of the private Beeland Holdings.

Jim was kind enough to take the call while at a train station in Shanghai, so due to the call quality, the entire written transcript as well as the audio recording is available below.

Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, you mentioned in Street Smarts a very interesting quote, that when selling during bull markets and a bull market top, “What you want is a kid with very little experience, and just enough brains to be dangerous.” What did you mean by that statement, and are there markets in the world today that you see dominated by kids with just enough brains to be very dangerous?

JR: Well, I suspect the United States stock market at the moment, is one of those markets. It’s artificial what’s going on, you have this lady in Washington printing a lot of money, and it’s a very artificial kind of scenario. Now unfortunately—I know that. But a 25 year old will think this is the way the world is; stocks are going up, everything she buys works, and she has nothing to worry about, she thinks this is the best thing ever. It’s in a market like this that you need somebody who doesn’t understand what’s going on, and I’m sure there are other markets like it too, but the U.S. is the obvious example of a market like that as we speak, herein, going into 2014.

TD: Jim, you’ve also been warning to anybody willing to listen about the dangers of the staggering U.S. debt, and you mentioned in Street Smarts that, “Sometime in this decade the whole system is going to collapse”. So when you think about that in terms of collapse, what does that mean—is that skyrocketing interest rates, declines in asset prices—mayhem?

JR: It’s all of the above. You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful.

TD: Jim, when you say “get prepared”, how can people do that, and do you mean people should continue to pull some assets out of the financial system in terms of holding them physically?

JR: Well, when things collapsed in 2008, people who were overextended with debt, or had investments they didn’t understand, or weren’t liquid enough, got hurt very badly as you know. That is going to happen again, and that’s why I’m urging people to just get prepared, be sure you understand what’s going on, be sure you understand your investments, be sure you’re not overextended, because when it comes, there’s not going to be much warning. I’m certainly not going to know when it’s coming, I wish I did, but I won’t.

TD: And you mean that in terms of being liquid Jim, having lots of liquidity?

JR: Well, one should never go into any liquidity crisis without liquidity, so when the liquidity crisis comes, obviously the ideal is to get totally liquid the day before the crisis comes. But I’m not any good at telling you the timing of it. I wish I were.

TD: Jim, to talk about commodities for a moment, you noted in Street Smarts that we have a few years left in the commodities bull market, so when you say a few years—do you mean 5 or 7? Or do you mean potentially 10 or 15 more years for commodities?

JR: I doubt it would be 10 or 15, that would be one of the longest ever in recorded history, but certainly I don’t see any reason why it cannot be another 5 to 7. I don’t know, but it really will depend on when the capacity comes on stream, so far we don’t have huge amounts of new capacity coming on stream, so the bull market can continue. [But] so far there are not massive amounts of new supply that have come on stream.

TD: Jim, what are your thoughts on the precious metals, as well as the mining sector, which has been one of the most beat up sectors in the market over the last year or two?

JR: Well remember, gold went up 12 years in a row, which is extremely unusual. I know of no asset in history which has gone up 12 years in a row, so the anomaly was the performance of gold for those 12 years. Now, the anomaly is going to be in the consolidation, in the correction. I don’t know, but I’m not buying gold at this point, because I suspect there’s going to be another chance to buy gold later in the next year or two. So I’m not buying gold yet, only because I know that the bull market for 12 years was an anomaly, so the correction should be an anomaly too. As you may know, the Indian politicians are now trying to do their best to destroy the gold market. They’ve put on huge controls and taxes on the Indian gold market. India’s the largest buyer of gold in the world, and it’s already having an effect. So the Indians are now trying to figure out a way to make the Indians sell their gold. Now if India goes from being the largest buyer of gold, to a seller of gold—who knows how low the price of gold will go. I know it will go a lot lower. So I’m not buying gold yet.

TD: Jim, in terms of the mining sector, do you still avoid the companies that produce the commodities due to the risks associated with management and so forth?

JR: If you figure out the right mine, the right company—you could make a fortune. So I don’t avoid them. For me, it’s simple these days to buy the commodity itself, but if you find the right mine, you’ll make a lot more in the right mine than in the commodity. But the problem is, there’s hundreds of—no, thousands of mining companies, so you have to be very careful.

2oz Freedom Girl new proofTD: Alright well, Jim Rogers, investor, world traveler, and author of the new book entitled, Street Smarts, thanks for sharing your comments with us, from a train station there in Shanghai.

JR: Certainly, thank you.

This was another powerful interview, conducted with an absolute legend of our time. It is required listening for serious investors and market students.

To listen to the interview, left click the following link and/or right click and “save target as” or “save link as” to to your desktop:

>>Interview with Jim Rogers (MP3)

Comments

  1. and yet, jim bob, like doug casey, you can’t ever get anywhere near the truth of the matter that the metals are clearly and nakedly manipulated by the powers that be, like literally everything else. Even IF they didn’t directly manipulate the metals, which they do, by manipulatting stock markets and interest rates, the metals are impacted by proxy.
     
    For that reason, I humbly submit that you can go fukk a rolling donut in the morning instead of going on your treadmill.

  2. My my, just look at the price action this morning!
    I wonder how Tulip-coin…er…Bit-coin is doing?

    • It appears that we are back into that pattern of a morning price-dump, and then PM’s move higher.

    • I was pleased to see the almighty V bottom.. At this point anyways. The gold side is getting very interesting with the lack of comex stock. Either way, we’ve been rounding third for 2 years and I hope we get to home base at some point.

  3. I don’t believe that gold can get much lower. Mining figures to me suggest that there isn’t a big enough return to continue mining. Then what?
     
    If you can’t get gold/silver out of the ground cheaper than you can sell it, and people are hording the metals, as they should be, doesn’t this create a scenario where there will be higher demand than supply?
     
    Sorry, I don’t agree about the Indian Angle, yes they have increased taxes on imports, but when you have a currency that is a leaky as the Rupee I think even with the 15% you would still get a better return on Gold than the Rupee over 3 years.
     
    I can not see the Indians selling their Wedding Jewellery for love nor money. I think Jim needs to understand the culture of India a bit better. Its a dowry, kept in a vault for as long as the marriage, only to be used in desperate circumstances.
     
    I will continue buying even as Jim takes a powder. Well, someone has too, else the price will drop like a stone.
     
    Ask Jim if he will sell his gold, I read another article where he was saying that he would NEVER sell his gold, and he would give it to his daughter. Why does he think the Indians would?

    • Looks like gold supply is strong.    http://www.mining.com/gold-mines-output-to-reach-record-high-70718/
      Roger’s is correct, since India and China are the two main buyers (very little US or EU demand), the gold price could go much lower.

    • One swallow my friend does not make a summer, and one article PROMOTING the buying of shares in mines, does not make the truth.
       
      Check out the All in Costs for mining, you will see that its just not worth getting the stuff out the ground, you really have to stop reading mainstream news. Reuters is fed this information by interested parties, You need to watch Citizen Kane.
       
      http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/20/the-creaping-cost-of-gold-production-is-a-huge-pro.aspx
      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1846612-what-it-really-costs-to-mine-gold-the-agnico-eagle-third-quarter-edition
      http://www.mining.com/new-aisc-measure-of-gold-production-costs-gaining-momentum-13624/

    • Just read the Reuters article again,
       
      It even state that:
       

      COSTS EDGE DOWN
      During the boom years, the cost of gold mining soared. But this year the average cost of producing an ounce of gold is already showing signs of retreating, according to metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.
      All-in costs are expected to ease back to around $1,200 an ounce in 2013 from $1,228 last year, after total cash costs fell to $769 an ounce in the second quarter from $796 in the first three months of the year.
      That is still perilously close to the spot gold price of $1,270, and there is only so far miners can cut back to keep tough operations afloat. But, analysts say, the long delays and time scales in mining mean it will take time for the drop in prices to translate into lower mine output.

       
      As for Barrack gold, they according to the same article are:
      “But as prices fall, others are actually increasing output to maintain revenue and profit levels. In some cases, they are targeting higher grade ore to keep marginal mines operating and generating cash, at the expense of future production.”
       
      You do know bull crap when you read it, I really hope you do. Targeting higher grade ore, NOW, why the heck not target Higher grade ore from the start? This means that they are LOOKING for higher grade Ore deposits, to make the operation profitable.
       
      ffs , read your articles before you post them, Third hand reporting of a second hand article, reporting on a first hand article incorrectly is just stupid.

    • @WaitingForSilver

      “Targeting higher grade ore, NOW, why the heck not target Higher grade ore from the start? This means that they are LOOKING for higher grade Ore deposits, to make the operation profitable.”

      A bit oversimplified but lets look at it simply, you have to to come to the conclusion. We all agree gold is not infinite correct? Lets assume two identical mines that have 1000oz deposits and they know that 500 of these oz are recoverable at a cost of $1200 per ounce, the other 500 are recoverable only over $1500 an ounce due to lower grades, higher cost. You mine what is profitable.

      Mine A recovers the highest profit, easiest recoverable as gold is above $1500, when they reach the harder to get oz price is now $1300 per ounce. They either blow through their profits or shut down.

      Mine B goes in reverse, gold above $1500 go after the low grade, gold drops to $1300 we go after the high grade and stay in production.

      One way to approach it anyway.

    • Is this how you see how the mines operate?
      I’m no expert in mining, but here goes:
      50 dollars a yard…..easy pay dirt (5 days work…..loads of gold)
      30 dollars a yard…..hard pay dirt. (5 days work 3/5th of the gold of 50 dollar yards)
       
      Price of gold a gajjilion dollars, “lets get as much gold out this friggin ground as possible!!!! whooo hoooo!”
      Price of gold…100 dollars “nope, I am not getting out of bed to dig dirt for that sort of return, I will be making a loss”
       
      so for example:
       
      High prices: (1500)
      500 * 1500 = 750000
      good ore say takes 1250 to mine an oz:
      750000 – 625000 =  125000 (profit…whoo hooo)
       
       
      bad ore say takes 1500 to mine an oz:
      500 * 1500 = 750000
      750000 – 750000 = 0 (break-even….not happy, but good mine operation is making profit so, what the heck!)
       
      So what you think is going to happen if these figures were reversed, and the price was low?
       
      lets find out :)
       
      low prices: (1250)
      500 * 1250 = 625000
      good ore say takes 1250 to mine an oz:
      625000 – 625000 =  0 (break-even, not happy, no profit, no glory, no point!)
       
      bad ore say takes 1500 to mine an oz:
      500 * 1250 = 625000
      625000 – 750000 = -125000 (making a loss!!!! not even worth mining)
       
      Now, if your saying that mines are holding back on the good dirt for hard times, even though they would profit more at high prices, then what you doing mining? Mines are not about sustainability, they are about profitability and share holders. You ALWAYS chase the money. You always chase the best pay dirt!
       
      So why the propaganda in these main stream news articles, its about shareholders! retaining them!….members of the board get paid based on share price. So you get loads of shitting articles, saying “mine is producing loads of gold, loads” and its why you always hear Barrack gold slam dunk the sustainable mining cost figure, because its run by board members who don’t want to show that most of their mines will be running at a lost with low spot prices in gold.

  4. I dont know somthing about this guy screams Shill.

    • I still think he is an outside insider if you know what I mean. A conman who gets close enough to the truth to get attention, but is still an insider so he can’t tell the WHOLE truth. By not telling the whole truth, he is sort of like a Glenn Beck or Fox news. The perspective is closer to the truth, but you don’t see the whole picture unless you keep looking.

    • @dirtlump
       
      I couldn’t agree more about Beck, he sounds good and looks good, just good enough to lull those watching/listening into a deeper level of disinformation. He seems on the road, just not moving forward. In a word, he’s a fake. Just enough truth to get the audience he wants, and just enough lies to keep them in the shadows of truth.

  5. Jim hasn’t figured it out yet? The Cowboys set the price not the Indians!

    • ‘Dot-Indian’ or ‘Feather-Indian?’
       
      (It must be the former, since when the topic of jewelry was brought up, turquoise was not mentioned.)
       

  6. It’s never the right time to buy gold according to Jim Rogers. The price is either too high or it’s going to go much lower. He’s a shill. Anyway China and not India is the biggest gold market now. According to Koos Jansen, the Chinese through the Shanghai Gold Exchange will have physically delivered about 2200 tons of gold or most of the entire global annual gold mining production by the end of the year. When you add Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam, Russia, the middle east and central bank demand, never mind India, or the rest of Asia, demand is way over global gold production.

  7. We see demand as record going through thailand and dubai, which most people seem to suggest is ending up in India. THis horse shit line that somehow the indian government will beat thousands of years of culture out of their people is asinine..
    There was 1 million worth of gold found in an indian plane toilet in the last day or 2 for example. Indian demand remains, it is just replfected in other countries now, and supplemented by silver. Any assertion to the contrary is asinine lies, or uninformed flatulation. But hey, no shortage of idiots parading the idea ( like for example articles talking about how gold supply is very strong quoting the world gold council ).
    tick tick tick, we just need the BOOM! now.

    • Canadian DL  I’m getting pretty tired of prognoticators so when it comes to Rogers I have 3 comments
      1. Bow ties of any color are the best tip off to someone who is mentally deranged–like wearing a propeller beanie
      2.  The word ‘legendary’  Overused to the point of nausea, my opinion is that John Wayne was legendary as was Wild Bill Hickock
      3.  Anyone associated with George Soros, including the last person to pass him on the street, is suspect
      Rogers and Soros together, starting the Quantum Fund, is like John Wayne Gacy and Jeffrey Dalmer deciding who’s for dinner and what they plan to do with the pool boy when their done with their meal.  Soros is a monster, a horror of the first magnitude.  Anyone close to him would be questionable in my estimation.

    • How does Jim come to the conclusion that India will become a net seller of Gold?  By controls & taxes??
      Indians may buy less in the future, but i don’t see how controls or taxes make them net sellers.  To become a net seller you would need to create an incentive / mind set for such an action.  Don’t see it.
       

  8. My Dad told me years ago to never trust a guy that wears a bow tie. This sweet boy is wearing a pink one at that! When he starts coming out with specific recommendations and time frames that pan out for the little guy, then I will start to take this millionaire shill seriously.I have actually heard this guy say this(I’m paraphrasing) “Yes, I own a little gold and would like to think that sometime down the line I might even acquire a little more”. Thanks for the specific tip you bowtie wearing lassieboy. Cheers.

  9. Contrary to recent popular opinion, Jim Rogers certainly knows his stuff.  Some years back, when the Gold price was around $750/oz, he openly responded to an interviewer that he had bought some Gold recently.  So, while he is modest about knowing how to time markets, he certainly knows when the prices are near a bottom.  His comments about Gold price action in the foreseeable future are likely due to the fact that the establishment all over the world are attacking Gold and Silver relentlessly.  And, being that the establishment is in control of the paper financial markets, it is not hard to see how they would attempt to suppress prices a little longer.
     
    But, if exchanging fiat paper currencies for the real money Gold and Silver is done for protection and security rather than greed and profit motives, there is really no point in waiting and trying to time the very bottom of price action.  Preparation means to prepare ahead of time, not waiting until after the calamity has passed.

    • I found it interesting that Rogers was saying on the one hand that he cannot time the market while on the other hand saying that now wasn’t the right time to buy gold.  If he can’t time the market, how does he know that this is not the right time?  

      Those of us who realistically cannot time the market tend to buy in small amounts at regular / routine intervals.  This is a dollar cost averaging approach, which works as well as any strategy and better than most.

  10. @zman: if you quote one liar, it doesn’t make your misinformation true. If you quote 100 liars, it’s no truer. Your endorsement of Jim Rogers proves that both you and he are shills. because everybody on this site knows what you are.

    • @Mexrph, Rogers remains bearish on gold because of the India, are you denying that India is now consuming less gold?   Is that misinformation?   
      Rogers believes that physical demand rules the PM markets, since demand for gold in India is down in a large manner, he believes the price will head lower, thus far he has been correct.
      This is the reason why many remain bearish on gold, why is this concept so difficult to understand?

    • @zman
       
      it’s because it is not what people want to hear.  You and I both would agree long term this is a good hedge if inflation takes hold.  If.  I also agree with the other poster that best not to wait until too late, but I currently see no reason to rush.

    • @zman I totally agree what mexrpf said about you. In fact I called you shill many month ago but this is besides the point.
      I thing you are doing great job for PM community. Thanks to your St$38! comments many informed users can use these comments as pretext to educate other less informed.
      About Indian demand:
      Official figures might be down but don’t forget  any prohibition increases the demand. Black market, where Indian turned to right now.
      You can’t kill thousand year old cultural demand with silly government regulation especially when rupee is tanking.
      I bet if you could add official and black market figures the demand not decreased but increased by substantial percentage.

    • @Henasau    “I think you are doing great job for PM community.”
      Thank you, while you and others might not always like to hear it, it’s called being intellectually honest. 
      You may be correct about the black market and India over the longer term, I DO NOT dismiss it, but for now restrictions are reducing gold consumption in India, and that factor is bearish for the price of gold.
      Do you know what will drive PM drives in the future?   Inflation, so far there is no real inflaton in the developed nations of the globe, that may change, it may not, time will tell.
       

    • @zman “Do you know what will drive PM drives in the future? Inflation,…..”
       
      Not the inflation but sentiment. And sentiment is right at the bottom thanks to manipulation and MSM reporting.
      This can’t go for ever, people are waking up. Even MSM reporting is changing recently. 
      Sentiment can change on the dime. Time bomb is ticking.

  11. Jim has made some very very poor calls recently. In fact I remember him going short US equities around this time last year…He has NOT been doing well. Long term, and in general he is right. But I’d be very cautious of anything he say’s regarding the short term…

  12. So lets see how low this can go…I have some cash on the side…just waiting…and if it goes really low, I’ll be selling some equities for additional funds…

  13. ‘inlikeflynn’ stated: “I don’t know something about this guy screams Shill.”

    You’re absolutely right. The “something” is that he’s essentially stating that demand and supply are the determinant of price for gold, given that he’s stating a demand and potential supply issue regarding India. It’s the same line of thought that the bankster-controlled analysts use, that the bankster-owned media uses, and that the zman/Cass Sunstein designated government troll (see notes below)on this site is also using. They’re all promoting the idea that this is a free market that moves by supply and demand, and not a government price-controlled/rigged market. That’s one of their main talking points. They all want you to believe that government price control is a conspiracy theory, and not a fact.

    However, there’s been a huge amount of information presented that indicates a government-rigged price controlled market is what this is all about, and not about supply and demand fundamentals. Tekoa Da Silva, who interviewed Rogers here, could’ve and should have questioned Rogers about silver and India, and then Rogers could’ve been forced to explain how the gold to silver ratio INCREASED after Indian imports of gold dropped significantly and imports of silver increased significantly. This throws the Indian demand/supply issue out the window as being a determinant of the price of these metals. TD accepted Rogers’ explanation of Indian demand affecting the price of gold, without asking about why silver hasn’t increased relative to gold, using the same demand/supply line of thought. He had the chance to put shill Rogers on the spot, but didn’t. Clearly TD has demonstrated unimpressive MSM-like journalism interviewing skills.
    —————————————————————————————–
    “Cass Sunstein, the Regulatory Czar, had suggested, in a 2008 paper, that government agents, or allied groups, infiltrate and undermine groups that spread “conspiracy theories.”

    In a 2008 academic paper, President Barack Obama’s appointee to head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs advocated “cognitive infiltration” of groups that advocate “conspiracy theories” …….

    Cass Sunstein, a Harvard law professor, co-wrote an academic article entitled “Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures,” in which he argued that the government should stealthily infiltrate groups that pose alternative theories on historical events via “chat rooms, online social networks, or even real-space groups and attempt to undermine” those groups. ” 1

    1 http://conservativehideout.com/2010/01/17/czar-wars-trolls-cass-sunstein-advocates-“cognitive-infiltration”-of-groups/
    ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

    Another article describing what job ZMAN is paid to do: Obama Information Czar Outlined Plan For Government To Infiltrate Conspiracy Groups: “Put into English, what Sunstein is proposing is government infiltration of groups opposing prevailing policy,” 2

    2 http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-information-czar-outlined-plan-for-government-to-infiltrate-conspiracy-groups.html

    • Agreed. Great point on demand in India. Irrefutable evidence and rock solid logic. Silver should be way up with that kind of physical demand.   And yes, posters like zman are only here to discourage and denigrate gold and silver holders. He is a blight on this board. Every single thing he says is to distract, distort and misinform.  Easy to spot if you are awake and have eyes to see. Sadly, some don’t here, even though it has been pointed out dozens of times before.
       
      The fact he sits here and takes abuse everyday (and rightfully so), only reinforces the point that he is only here to undermine the Silver Doctors website. I’ve seen it plenty of times before at ZH, Mish’s and TFMR as well.

    • ‘Bay of Pigs’ stated: “posters like zman are only here to discourage and denigrate gold and silver holders.”
      Actually, I believe that Cass Sunstein designated trolls such as zman are paid to be here to primarily discourage the lurkers who are interested in investing in the precious metals, and that zman isn’t interested in trying to affect us SD registered users. Us registered users are all stackers and strong hands, and even zman knows that he can’t sway us to sell or stop purchasing. His job is thus clearly to go after the uneducated lurkers. Many of these lurkers may be doctors and attorneys with net worths of 1-10 million dollars, who don’t own an ounce of PM. On any given day, there are probably hundreds of lurkers on here who don’t own an ounce of silver or gold, but are considering it. They likely read these comments, and can arguably be swayed by them in the wrong direction if they read the government propaganda line that zman is paid to present, as per the Cass Sunstein doctrine of infiltrating discussions on the internet.

      It is thus my opinion that an obvious government troll such as zman should be banned. Simply ignoring him, and not countering his government propaganda, as some here feel is the appropriate way to deal with the situation, allows him to succeed in swaying the lurkers away from PMs. It’s not in our interest to see government propaganda from zman posted on here in order to keep people from entering the PM arena. Some people here likely believe we should just ignore him, and that doing so is not harmful to us, since we’re all strong hands already, and not capable of being swayed to sell or stop buying. However, we must be aware that it’s not about a government trolling plan for discouraging the silver holders on here, but about discouraging the potential buyers who are here lurking and trying to learn.
      We want them to learn the truth, not bankster-owned government propaganda.

      Allowing zman propaganda to be published here clearly is a disservice to the potential buyers that are lurking here. Hopefully the Doc will reconsider and decide to ban this government-paid troll. Until then, we must stand up against government-designated trolls in order to see to it that the truth can be deciphered by those potential buyers who are lurking around here.

    • @$$$$$$$$$
      Not to worry about the “lurkers”, they may be swayed away at these low prices, but when the metals pop, they will be the biggest buyers! ZMAN tactics may prolong the inevitable, but while doing that, they are also nurturing the pop to be stellar when it does come. I can wait….no hurry. I believe the lurkers are smart enough to take all opinions into account and will likely come in when it’s way past bottom to their own detriment, and will make up for that shortfall buy purchasing any amount at any price! It’s coming albeit slowly, that only coils the spring tighter. The only way this outlook would become incorrect is if the leaders of the world became honest all of a sudden, and began working in our best interest to fix the economies of the world to begin working in our favor instead of shredding us all as they have been doing. Do I even have to say that this is about as likely as a bird flying upside down wearing a pink bow tie?
       

    • Wow, talk about a bunch of insecure PM investors, how dare anyone around here question the conspiracies theories of the PM markets. I never said that people should not buy PM’s, everyone should own some as a hedge.
      I understand PM investors are upset with the price action, that is not my fault, I think its the fundamentals, some of you guys think it’s manipulation, big deal.
      I thought PM investors promoted freedom of thought, and were opened minded to all possibilities, why the censorship?
      For the record, I have always said, if there was more physical demand for the PM’s, it would over run the paper markets, and that day may be coming.   If you think the PM prices are going to soar in the near future, what difference does it make?  What difference do I make?
      I hope every PM investor on this site gets the move in PM prices they expect and want, don’t let your insecurities get the best of you, don’t let it fill you with hate and anger, it’s OK to question things you believe in.
       
       

    • Spoken like a nice little robot and good govt troll. Well done. Deflect, distract, obfuscate. 
       
      Insecure? That’s pretty funny, even coming from you assclown.

  14. *yawn* I ignore this guy, he is a shill of the worst kind. Sides with whatever way the market is headed.

  15. @zman: “Rogers believes that physical demand rules the PM markets”. That is misinformation. Naked short selling of paper gold rules the PM markets. Only shills and MSM idiots and traitors believe that physical demand rules the PM markets.

    • If the naked shorting drives the price so low, why are the “real demand” players not gobbling up hand over fist?  Paper selling is great, butthe contract is physically setlled, not cash settled.  Paper may be able to rule for a very short period of time, but ultimately real demand will buy the paper and take it all out.  Some of this has happened but appears to have stopped as of late.

  16. Hmm. At what point will my LCS pay me to take their gold and silver coins off their hands? Heck, I might even take them for free! Let me see…first I will silver plate my car and then park it in my solid gold garage which will be attached to my home but has the platinum roof and palladium siding…

  17. Ok, ok – I know this one….up and down up and down.  Barely two months ago it was supposed to go higher.
     
    “he knows his stuff”  Really?  Which stuff is that?
     
    Do a quick search – you’ll see back in August he said gold was going ‘much higher’. He’s worse than a Democrat following polls. Blows anyway the wind is blowing. If gold goes up $100 tomorrow he’ll come out and say it’s going to rise.

    He may be OK in some circles but the proof is in his words – and they’re all over the place.

  18. I am against guru bashing, but this time ….
    I have listened a few resent Jim Rogers interviews. Last one I stopped listening half way through.
    I must say he is out of touch. He can’t even get his facts right.
    I am sure he is very smart guy and had many good calls in the past but now he is retired and he should stick to his treadmill. 

  19. Ever wonder where the gurus went that sat on the side of our bed and told us how great things were going to be?

    • No, I don’t. Stand your ground or give up and throw the towel in. Your choice.

    • “Stand your ground or give up and throw the towel in.”
       
      Problem is, BoP, those who throw in the towel might well be needing it shortly when they cannot afford a barrel and need something to cover their bare arses.  ;-)
       
      “Your choice.”
       
      Indeed… so, choose wisely.  This is a personal choice, so it matters not a bit what others choose to do.  Those of us who know what to do and who are doing it, have made our choice and are sticking with it.  None of the conditions that brought us to buying PMs have changed.  In many ways, they are worse today than when we started buying.  Anyone who was convinced that buying PMs is a wise decision has no reason to stop now.  Most of us will stop when the US dollar-mill isn’t running 24/7/365, the US Gov starts living within its income, real employment shoots up, and the national debt is no longer exploding upwards.  In fact, if ANY one of these four changes significantly, it should be front page news.  I like Peter Schiff’s comment when asked how high gold will go.  He says something like, “I don’t know.  How many US dollars will be printed in the coming years”.
       
      Additionally, we do not have to suffer from hyperinflation before owning PMs becomes a good idea.  Even mild inflation will eat away at the buying power of our savings.  We can approximate the effect by using the Rule of 72 in reverse… which is to say that if we have an average of 6% annual inflation, it will take 72 / 6 = 12 years to cut the buying power of that money in half. This is not an unreasonable amount of inflation, BTW.  Using the old government non-slight-of-hand calculation method, for example, shows that real inflation is about 9% right now.  Inflation is not something that is “coming”, it is here.  It’s just wearing a hat, trench-coat, gloves, and dark glasses that have been supplied by the Fed and the US Gov.
       

  20. I appreciate being able to read some of these viewpoints, don’t agree with all but worth a think.

  21. Trolls like Zman and Mikeyj80 can choke on a bag of dicks and die.   Why do they keep coming here day after day if they don’t like precious metals and they like little pieces of paper backed by JACK SHIT and LIES made by BANKRUPT LIARS AND CHEATS?
    MikeyJ is another full of shit asshole.   “Contracts are settled physically, not with paper.”   Goddamned liar, almost 99% of contracts are settled with little PIECES OF PAPER.  I’m sick of just glossing over these cocksmokers and letting it go.   I say we surround these guys, tie them up, hold their feet to the fire, and burn them at the stake.
    Let me remind everyone here, every ounce of silver that has ever been mined and is still aboveground and available to buy is priced CHEAPER than a WEEK of QE funny money.   Think about it.
     

    • And I thought I was being kind of rough on him?  :)
       
      Seriously, I hope everyone can hold on and make it through this horrible mess. It truly is a sickening sight to behold, and there will be a lot of pain and suffering down the road. I will admit the trollish types bring out the worst out in me at times like this. I just go off. Sorry if I offended any of the rest of you around here. Not my objective at all. Good luck, best wishes to you all.
       

  22. Ranger 
    I think those gurus that sat at the side of our bed were kind of like the women of easy virture who said the same thing, sitting at the side of our bed.  We didn’t pay her to say those  things.   But we did pay her to leave when done.
    Half the people in this country had the same sort thing happen, something  at the side of their bed for the last 5 years, telling them how good it would be. 
    But  when that Shinola Pinocchio started jumping around like he has feathers in his britches, the biggest problem  was that no matter how much money you had,  how much you gave him,  he just would not leave. 
    Damn.  It seems like he’s been here forever. 
    As for zman, its pretty easy to skip his quips and get on to the good stuff

    • @AGXIIK
       
      Once upon a time, there were BBSs all over the place that were basically just local chat rooms.  Many of them had an exquisite feature known as the [IGNORE] button.  If a shill or a troll showed up, the board regulars would simply [IGNORE] him or her into complete and utter submission.  By hitting that button on one of their messages, no other messages from that person would be displayed when the one hitting  [IGNORE] was viewing all of the other messages that had not been ignored.
       
      Trolls, for example, live on the disturbances they create.  That disappears when they get the [IGNORE] button treatment, as they are left braying in the wind with no one listening.  Soon thereafter, they disappear… usually for good but sometimes they return in a different guise until the same thing happens and they are again starved out.  They get no sustenance from their antics, so eventually go looking for a new place where the admins will put up with them and they can continue to cause trouble.  This makes me wonder what effect such a button added to SD would have…   ;-)
       
      On the other hand, when The Doc says “SPEAK YOUR MIND”, he really means it.  Looks as if we are stuck with the trolls until they choose to stop OR some new form of anti-troll defense is installed.  Personally, I choose to use the mental [IGNORE] button, neither reading nor responding to these flatulent disturbances.
       

    • AG,
      I think the majority of the Newbies here are escapees from the SLV message board. I just said “Ever Wonder”
       

    • AG,
      How bout that 10 year 2.79!

    • @Ed_B
       
      We each could simply reply to all of the ZMAN type posts with the single word or a picture as seen below….”IGNORE” and then each of their posts would be followed by 20 replies saying…”IGNORE”. That would be almost as good as the “lurkers” would at least see what the SD community felt about said troll. Just a thought…..

    • @SilverSlicker
       
      Nice graphic!  lol
       
      I prefer not to name any individuals.  Both we and they know who they are.  In any case, I prefer the FULL ignore.  No comments.  No replies.  No comments about their comments.  Nothing.  Excommunication writ large.  ;-)

  23. Funny how Roger’s didn’t say what price he thought gold would/could go lower.  If ppl bought in at 30 last year – time to cost average in the ‘teens people!!!!!!
    Smack the Silver so we can Stack the Silver!!!

  24. Very weird:
     
    Today he seems to be recommending people stay “liquid” i.e. in cash and that there will be a better buying opportunity in the next year or two.
     
    But yesterday ZeroHedge carried an interview where Rogers says he has gold and to buy gold:
    “Everybody should own some precious metals as an insurance policy. So if they don’t have any right now, I would urge them to go buy something.”
    and  “I’ve owned gold for many years, I’ve never sold any gold and I can’t imagine I ever will sell gold in my life because it is somewhat of an insurance policy.”

    • Maybe he is differentiating between holding a small percentage of one’s portfolio in gold vs. backing up the truck?  Hard to say.  Rogers is a pretty smart guy.  Most billionaires are.  Had he not structured his commodities ETF as an ETN, I might have bought a little of that.  It seems nicely diversified but I refuse to own ANY ETNs.  As notes, they really are not backed by anything, including ownership in the fund or the company that issues them.  If they fall on hard times and go bust, too bad for anyone holding their paper.  There is no recourse to them disappearing and taking your money with them as they go.  ETN holders have no place at the bankruptcy table, unlike holders of bonds, stock shares, and ETF shares.  Yes, all but the bond holders may be low on the list of who gets paid but at least they are on the list.  At least, this is my understanding from reading about ETNs.  If this is not correct, please advise.
       

  25. Ed  I recall that feature mentioned in other places but did not spend any time in the chat rooms.  The people who frequent SD are, by and large, thoughtful and intelligent, thinking critically and no matter if their thinking was sometimes offbase, and I fall into that category, we all attempted to contribute out thoughts to the basic areas of concern.   I’ve tussled with zman before, along with others but a commenter has to be beyond the pale for me to hit the mental disregard button.   I have found that even those who are particularly obtuse do add to my awareness since I read vistually every post.  Furtunately I am a fast reader can can sort the wheat from chaff. Some writing is so well done it’s worth a second and third look.  But as for trolls, my detector’s sensitivity is improving.
     
    Ranger   Yes, that pesky 10 yr treasury bond is rising again.  That is going to get reaction if the rate closes in on 3%.  All hell breaks loose and we are usually served up some serious PM action, downward as often as not.  More QE and additional action to protect the derivatives roils the market   There is no way that the Fed and its fellow central banks can afford to let it stay close to 3% without concerted action. 
    Fukushima Abe and Jinping are going to get really upset when rates start upwards again. Our actions hit them 2 to 3 times harder when we start printing to save our butts.  I think China will soon consider their dollar holdings as little more than a liability, write them to zero, and move on. China has problems but there gold holdings make them the richest poor man in town.  Even if everything goes to hell in a handbacket, their 10,000 plus tons in gold willstave off disaster, or so the story goes.
      There is another crisis in China with the Shibor jumping higher,  the breaches in the shadow banks along with possible lockdowns (Bill Holter was commenting on that situation yesterday) there is a chance that some  Chinese major banks could fail.  Our Fed has shipping trillions under cover of darkness to the Euro Banks to plug the holds in  their capital bases.   That usually means the Fed is getting out of control, again, and printing will increase along with huge QE tranches flowing down the streets.  I dont think the Fed sends the same assistance to the Chinese banks so their problems could be insurmountable at this time.  But who knows what the Fed will do to try to save the world
    I am not sure if we can contain the problems this time 
    It took huge efforts to stop the bleeding the last time UST 10yr hit 3%.
    Jim Willie was shouting from the rooftops ‘The world would end’
       It didn’t but not without major damage to the banks.  It looks like we have doubled down on  Capital controls, capital increases here and overseas, ringfencing the US depositors as well as foreign deposits   This appears to be the key to saving the sinking ship. 
    I think that early in 2014 there will be some harsh events that require using the worst of the central bank options and that’s going after private pensions.  My banker homies are telling me things that make them nervous.  One just jumped ship after his disclosures about concerns over his very solid bank. “Family matters required his immediate attention’   Bullsheep!.  He had a good gig going. Leaving was not an option, until it became one.
    The $1 trillion jump in UST debt in October tells me there are more problems than we can see on any one day. A couple of trillion shipped to Europe to stave off their looming problems is another sign of trouble  Willie’s monthly just came out. I need to read that to et a better handle on what we could see in the short term
     And Japan is a basket case   Their entire existence is threatened with their QE efforts 200% larger proportional to their GDP than the US debt ratio. Nothing Abe does helps anymore. 
    So, Mrs Lincoln, do you like what we’ve done with the curtains and carpets?

    • @AGXIIK
       
      “I recall that feature mentioned in other places but did not spend any time in the chat rooms.”
       
      Back in the day, say mid-1980s, chat rooms were about it.  Those who frequented them back then WERE the thoughtful and intelligent types because only they owned computers that could allow them to access these.  The Internet was VERY primitive back then.  If you didn’t speak UNIX and its dozens of 2-letter commands pretty well, you simply could not use its all-text interface and output. Those who tried and failed were ridiculed and scorned terribly and then driven from the hallowed halls of the Internet.  It’s completely different today with every bozo out there able to access the Internet.  Most should so they can learn and grow but some should not as their only goal seems to be disruption.
       
      “I have found that even those who are particularly obtuse do add to my awareness since I read vistually every post.”

       
      If only it was a matter of being obtuse or incompetent and not deliberately disruptive.  Being a mere idiot can be forgiven. Being an intellectual vandal cannot.  Oh, well.  Vandalism happens and all that.  Call a cop.  ;-)
       
      “But who knows what the Fed will do to try to save the world”
       
      Just about anything that can be imagined.  If the world needs saving and they really can do it without screwing everyone financially, then fine.  Go do it.  My problem with them is that they are likely to drive the entire planet into utter financial chaos and THEN still not “save it”.  What then?  We can live with the world going to economic hell in a hand-basket because there really isn’t a thing that we can do to prevent that from happening.  What we can prevent, however, is a lot of the suffering that we and our families will go through once the current system collapses.  In point of fact, this is WHY we all stack real money, aka gold and silver.  If we get taken to the cleaners in the name of saving the world economy and it goes into the crapper anyway, we will have no resources of our own to lessen the blow to ourselves and our families.  I find that to be an intolerable situation.  I also find it to be not only possible but perhaps even likely considering just how crazily things are going.
       
      “I think that early in 2014 there will be some harsh events that require using the worst of the central bank options and that’s going after private pensions.”
       
      I agree that 2014 could well be a very nasty and pivotal year in global financial history.  As you know, I see the time between spring 2014 and summer 2015 as the beginning of The Time of Troubles.  If by the grace of God and some miracle He creates we do not have an economic collapse during this time frame, then it seems possible that it could be many years before we do.  At this point in time, going either way looks like a 50-50 deal.  In the meantime, prep like there is no tomorrow because if we get a collapse, there will be a tomorrow and it will be VERY ugly.
       
      The thought that continues to occur to me is that while retirement funds are very tempting and juicy targets, it is difficult to believe that any ruler who is responsible to the voters will engage in such outright theft BEFORE s/he has total control and can therefore do any damned thing they want, whenever they want. Otherwise, the political crap-storm that would result would sweep them and their party into the ash-heap of history… permanently.

      Another tempting target, of course, is the US $10T in funds sitting in bank savings accounts and CDs. The bail-in scenario has already been tested and is known to work… in Cyprus, anyway. That same model is available for all other countries to use to plunder the savings of their citizens, all in the name of “the greater good”, of course. Those who would be financially damaged by this activity probably do not agree on this being either greater or good, however. Still, it is a ripe juicy plum and it IS within reach.

  26. sorry about the typos.  the edit button is missing

  27. waiting for silver
    10-4 on your comments
    Mark Twain said a silver mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar at the bottom
     Nothing has changed

    • @AGXIIK
       
      Twain’s quotation was:  ”A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.”
       
      While this quote is attributed to Twain, it is unconfirmed.  Considering many of the comments that Twain made, this does seem in character with his feisty nature.  Perhaps he bought a few mining shares at some point, only to discover that the mine had been salted and was therefore worthless, as were the shares.
       
      Those who have bought mining shares over the past few years probably feel much the same as this quotation indicates Twain did.
       

  28. $$$$$$$$$$   very true words about liars and propagandists.  
    the old saying, ’Lies have cicled the globe before truth is out of bed and putting on its shoes’ has merit when it comes to purveyors of disinfo.

  29. I hope they don’t drive the price of pms down an then the gov declare a national emergency an lock the prices where there at. Usually in the past every time theres a huge price dip the m,arket crashes.

  30. EdB  The next time I see Mr Twain I will ask him.  We work out at the same gym.  He lifts the light weights, I lift the heavy ones.
    We talk about stuff and sometime the topic of mining comes up.  He is an encyclopia of Sam Clemens.  In reality Mac, as he’s called, is a Chatauqua Speaker, one of those rare people who can assume the total persona of a famous person so well that they can do that character better than the original.  Layne McAvoy is the person who does Mark Twain here in the ‘vil and yes, when we talk, sometimes I am talking to Mark Twain and sometimes to just plain Mac 
    Some say he didn’t invent the phrase about mines but his biography does.  Variations of the saying are   ‘a hole in the ground owned by liar’,  ‘liar beside the hole in the ground’ and ‘hole in the ground with a liar on top of it’.  I bet he just borrowed it from an old sourdough working the Comstock.
    Mark found that mining was too hard, so what foresting and any other physical labor so once writing became his preferred way of making money that was the start of 2 great love affairs.   With his wife and the passion of writing Americana.  Our local Mark Twain is a classic and one of the nicest people you’d ever meet. 
    I think Will Rogers was Twain’s reincarnation.

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