Indian Silver Imports on Pace for New Record in 2013

Indian Silver ImportsIf the present trend of large monthly silver imports continues, India may be setting up for a record year in 2013.  According to industry sources, India has already imported 2,400 tonnes of silver in the first 5 months of 2013 compared to 1,900 tonnes for the entire year in 2012.
If silver imports were 2,400 tonnes from Jan-May, and we estimate another 1,500 tonnes for June & July, that’s nearly 4,000 tonnes of silver in only the first 7 months of 2013.
Even if imports are more conservative throughout the rest of the year, India may still likely surpass its record silver imports of 5,048 tonnes in 2008.

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From The SRSRoccoReport:

If we look at the chart below, we can see that India imported a record 5,048 tonnes of silver in 2008.  This was the year that silver hit a record high of $21 and record low at the $9 level.  The Indians were importing record amounts as the price rose to its high in March that year, and they bought even more when it fell all the way to $9 in Oct. 2008.

Indian Silver Imports

As the world’s economies slowed in 2009, industrial and investment demand declined until it started to picking up again in 2010 and even more in 2011.  Here we can see that Indian’s silver imports fell to 1,285 tonnes in 2009, but recovered to over 4,000 tonnes by 2011.

Ever since silver hit a record high of $49 in April of 2011, there has been a long slow grind lower over the past two years.  Amazingly, the price of silver has fallen 62% since its high to reaching a new low of $18.50, this past Friday.

This caused world investment demand for silver to decline in 2012, shown by the big drop-off of Indian silver imports in 2012.  There were a few news articles out the last month stating that even though the price of silver had fallen substantially in April, there didn’t seem to be many Indian buyers.

However, it looks like things have indeed changed as silver demand is picking up.  According to the article “Silver Prices Shoot Up as Prices move to multi-year Lows”,

“Silver stock with several bullion traders were getting exhausted and when prices started falling from mid-April, they booked heavily anticipating demand at lower levels as prices have been falling,” said Monal Thakkar, president, Amrapali Group, a leading Ahmedabad-based bullion wholesaler.

According to industry estimates, silver imports during the January-March quarter stood at 760 tonnes. Imports shot up 720 tonnes in April alone, and in May, they further swelled by 920 tonnes.

Monal Thakkar advises consumers and investors to start buying silver now as prices have fallen by almost half from the peak of Rs 75,000 two years ago.

If silver imports were 2,400 tonnes from Jan-May, and we estimate another 1,500 tonnes for June & July, that’s nearly 4,000 tonnes of silver in only the first 7 months of 2013.  Even if imports are more conservative throughout the rest of the year, India may still be on hits way of surpassing its record silver imports of 5,048 tonnes in 2008.

 

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Comments

  1. Are they making an awful lot of polyester and circuitry?
    Or are they mostly stacking?

  2. Too funny, but I’m listening to Jeff Christian do his utmost to denigrate gold on BNN right now. He says there is no physical demand anywhere. 
     
    And they are also trotting out a UBS spokesman to trash gold and silver as well…(24/7 PM propaganda on this channel now).
     

  3. As long as the FED supplies, there is nop shortage anywhere in the world.
    1000 tonnes is 32 million ounces.
    So if India imports 3000 tonnes more than last year, that pushes demand up by close to 100 million ounces,
    So the possible annual rise in Indian imports could make up for over 10% of production. When most is already spoken for. And demand is up in the rest of the world as well. Certainly retail silver, and not by a little bit.

  4. 2013 production of silver is expected to be about 760,000,000 ounces.   Last year India and China imported about 250,000,000  ounces or 30% of the entire world’s supply of silver.  This year’s consumption of silver by China and India is  projected to be on the order of over 45-50%, or about 350  MOZ. 
    Between those two countries that will be a game changer for silver  Since the year is only half over China has to be factored into the equation otherwise the calculations of what silver is left for the rest of us won’t be valid.
      The rest of the world will be scrambling for the other 350,000,000 ounces of silver, just as we are scrambling for gold.  The last half of this year is going to be a doozy 
    I can scarcely wait for it.

    • AGXIIK– Don’t forget the 250 million ozs. of scrap silver. At least that’s what it was the last 2 years according to The Silver Institute.

  5. Just checked the bullion sales at the us mint: again they added 800K ounces from june to july… Then you read in the journals that the sales of june were lower than those of may! It’s normal they are shifting with the numbers. Why? Even there they are manipulating and hiding the true.

  6. They are going to BLOW AWAY the 5000 ton number in 2008.   I can see why they imported so much that year.   Silver was in a wide range that year – as high as $21+ in March and reaching $9 in the “crash” although you couldn’t get an ounce of silver for that price even in generic form.   I see 2013 as another “load up on the bottom” year for silver.   Trading below mine cost is crazy.   
    Despite the absolute carnage, silver’s ability to make a moonshot is still there, and the soring is pushed down and locked.   China and India ALONE are buying about half the world’s mine supply while above ground supplies have dwindled massively from decades past…    We haven’t even seen BIG MONEY come into silver yet.   Think about it!!!   350M ozs is LESS than $20M US per day at this ridiculous $19 price!   LOL    $20M a day in a GLOBAL MARKET.   That’s peanuts.   The houses on the street I am on are worth more than that.
    Just wait until tens of millions of people become DISCIPLINED STACKERS.   At these prices, it sure is inviting to stack at BELOW MINING COSTS.   No silver miners are generating net income at $19.   
    Silver stocks, how cheap can they get?   They could get cheaper if the companies are continuing to lose money.  But silver, I don’t think it can get a LOT cheaper, although I don’t rule out $1180/$18 as “the bottom” although it could be, and maybe is.  

  7. Just in the past weeks, I’ve been educating and supplying multiple new stackers. Most will just buy from webshops, I am a very nichy trader. But they are now stacking, and won’t be able to stop. They’ve started in a bottom year. I started in a peak year, yet I am still passionately stack however I can. Or rather, fighting to not let my stack lose ounces due to the tsunami of bills hitting me.
    In the above, we’ve not factored in increased sales of retail silver. Those are significant to say the least.

    On scrap silver. How will that do under $20? Recyclers will have a much harder time. Will they just up production to compensate? They probably can’t. Like mines. You do your utmost, until it’s not profitble anymore to do so.

    Big money is buying SLV, and taking deliveries. Seems the silver WAS in fact there. And big money is extracting it swiftly.

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