train-leaving-stationAll aboard!!…


Submitted by Peter Degraaf:

Phase One began in January 2016, and slowed down from July until early October.  (Charts in this commentary are courtesy, unless indicated). 

The first sign of a turnaround can be seen in this chart:


Featured is PHYS the Sprott Gold Trust.  Price produced an Upside Reversal (blue arrow), on Oct. 7th.  Since it happened at the bottom of the rising channel and at the 200 Day Moving Average, this was an important clue.  Confirmation occurred on Oct. 18th, with price breaking out above recent congestion.  (See the zoom chart at right).  The supporting indicators have turned positive (green lines), and the 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA (green oval), while the latter is in firm uptrend.  The first target is at the green arrow. 



This chart (courtesy is one of our favorite long term charts and we feature it often.  It shows the gold price in comparison to the US Monetary Base.  This index shows important turnaround points for gold, as seen in the early 1970’s, 2001, 2009 and now in 2016.  The amazing take-away from this chart is that gold is presently the cheapest it has been in at least 100 years!  We may never see it this affordable again in our lifetime.

BATES, Larry:  “The greatest shock of this decade is that more people are about to lose more money than at any time before in our history.  And the second biggest shock will be the incredible amount of money just a relatively small group of people will make at exactly the same time.” (Author of ‘The New Economic Disorder’)


On Sale At SD Bullion…
This Week Only…



This chart courtesy shows investors are adding to ETFs and Trusts, in spite of lower gold prices during the past few months.  This is positive divergence. 


This chart courtesy shows demand for US Gold Eagles is rising, despite a drop in the price of gold.  It would appear that investors like a bargain.



This chart courtesy sources listed shows demand for gold in China continues to grow.  This demand provides a solid fundamental reason to own gold.


Featured is GDX the miners ETF.  Price is currently carving out a similar pattern to the turnaround of May-June.  The blue arrows point to breakouts from congestion.  The blue channel shows the projected path.  The supporting indicators are positive (green lines).  The 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA (green oval), while the latter is in strong uptrend. 

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”



This chart courtesy US Treasury and shows US debt is rising sharply.  This debt will never be repaid.  It will be inflated away, or cancelled via bankruptcy.  In either case gold owners will benefit, as gold will rise in price.   One of the most important energy sources for a rising gold and silver sector is government debt.

 Frederic:  “The law can be an instrument of equalization only as it takes from some persons and gives to other persons.  When the law does this it is an ‘instrument of plunder.’” (From his booklet: The Law).


This chart courtesy shows another bullish factor for gold.  Whenever the ‘real rate of return’ is below 2%, and especially below 0% (short term rates are -0.74%) investors flock to gold.  In view of the fact that the calculation in this chart is based on the official CPI rate, the actual real rate of return is still lower, as the government uses ‘seasonal adjustments’ in almost every statistic they provide.

BURKE, Edmund (1729 – 1797): “How often has public calamity been arrested on the very brink of ruin, by the seasonable energy of a single man?  Have we no such man amongst us?  I am as sure as I am of my being, that  one vigorous mind without office, without situation, without public functions of any kind, (at a time when the want of such a thing is felt, as I am sure it is) I say, one such man, confiding in the aid of God, and full of just reliance in his own fortitude, vigor, enterprise, and perseverance, would first draw to him some few like himself, and then that multitudes, hardly thought to be in existence, would appear and troop about him.”


Featured is the daily silver chart.  During a gold bull market, silver can be expected to outperform gold, based on historical precedent.  The uptrend is clearly defined within the blue channel.  Price is carving out a small pennant formation right at the 200DMA.    Remember the golden rule: During a bull market, every dip near or below the 200DMA (rising red line on the chart), is an opportunity to buy.  The supporting indicators (green lines) are positive and the 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA, while the latter is rising.


This chart courtesy shows sales of Silver Eagles at the US Mint are rising sharply this month.  It is investment demand that will drive the current bull market in silver.


DISCLAIMER:  Investing involves risk taking.  Please do your own due diligence.  Peter Degraaf is NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf is a stocks and commodities investor with over 50 years of investing experience.  He publishes a daily commentary for his many subscribers.  For a sample copy of a recent report please visit his website





  1. Hope on the bus Gus. Been stacking since summer of 1988. Started with 90% silver 1964 Kennedys.

    President Kennedy assinatetion was because of the Federal Reserve and Vice-president Johnson desire to eliminate silver from US coinage. Johnson passed the law in 1965 to rid silver out of the US Mint coinage. Johnson was bought and paid for by the powers that be!

    Beginning of the demise of the Democratic Party.

    Stacking and packing

  2. SD Bullion “lowest prices period”?

    SD Bullion 1 oz Krugerrand 2016 $1383.49 (currently out of stock) 1 oz Krugerrand 2016 $1350.19 (in stock)

    Just bought 20 on the internet. (London) 1 oz Krugerrand $1289.01 (unfortunately no internet sales)

    • Not sure if I would buy 20x 1 oz  Krugerrands from a German company if I live in the US…which I do…

      Let us know how it turns out for you.

      SD Bullion is in my short list of trusted vendors.

      SD Bullion will make sure they take care of you.

      The lowest POSTED price is not always the best for me. There are other things to consider. Like getting your metal.



    • Agreed @scoremore


      “There are other things to consider. Like getting your metal.”

      Yep, or your money back.  Quite a few people have had the Tulving and NW Territorial Mint experiences. 🙁


    • @scoremore and Ed B

      I’ve been a customer for a few years and never had a single problem.

      Then again I live in Europe so the same goes for me I wouldn’t buy from the USA as I always hear rumours of coin dealers going bust in the US and the prices are more expensive in the USA.

    • @GBS

      I was also going to mention (But I wanted to keep it short) that you are only comparing one product.

      There are many things to consider. I use 5 online dealers. SD Bullion is one of them.

      They all have their niches. But all of them first and foremost I have real faith in… Reliability, service and honesty are my main interests…

      Don’t get me wrong price is very important just not the very top on the list.


    • Agreed @scoremore.



      Buying local is good.  Shipping, especially internationally can be expensive and tricky.  Few coin dealers have gone bust here but when they do they make the headlines.  As to prices, they vary considerably, depending on the product and whether or not there is a “special” or “sale” on for them.  I got a good amount of Canadian Silver Maples for spot + $1.69 not too long ago, which is about as good a price as I have seen.  International shipping from a European source would no doubt make up for a lower price and then some.


  3. The train may not leave the station until after the elections. A search of historical data on gold prices before and after a US election shows  that  prices drop prior to an election and rise rise afterwards. Lower prices are manipulated  to make the dollar appear stronger. Go buy phyzz now if you still need to stack.. If you have enough, be happy to have avoided the upcoming lines to buy, then only to find out there is none left after hours of standing waiting, and that the prices have become prohibitively high.

    After the Bosnian war I recall an interview of several people who were asked what was the one thing you wish you had  during those most difficult times. Answer  was …  drum roll …  more toilet paper.


    • Indeed so.  Paper products of all kinds have considerable use value.  TP is a terrific convenience and more than that is also a way to keep cleaner and healthier.  During hard times, maintaining one’s health will be more difficult but even more critical than it is today.  Having a good supply of soap and disinfectant will be highly useful.


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