The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 2nd of several interviews regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.

Harvey stated that recent evidence seems to validate his long held suspicions that China is behind the big gold & silver shorts, and stated that the nation is draining massive amounts of physical metal East.
Harvey also made the shocking allegation that COMEX is settling allocated delivery & storage requests with paper metal,  and stated that he no longer has any faith whatsoever in the numbers reported in the COMEX gold and silver inventories. 

Harvey Organ’s EXPLOSIVE 2nd interview with The Doc is below:

2013 Silver Eagles As Low as $2.59 Over Spot at SDBullion!

 

The Doc asked Harvey if there was an explanation for the absolute hammering the metals have received ever since the QE4 announcement:

The reason for the hammering is the control that the bankers need to get on the circumstances.  This is not just the United States!  You’re seeing Europe, Japan, you’re seeing QE going on globally all at once, so the bankers are nervous as hell!  They have to dampen the paper market of gold, but at the same time they’re probably personally purchasing the physical metal, along with China, Russia, all the Stans, Iraq, Iran- this is taking a huge toll on London.

As you know, London is really a 100 to 1 paper to physical ratio in gold.  The problem is that when you start removing that one physical ounce of gold to China, you start putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the bankers, as they have nothing bot hot air.  This is why you’re seeing all the stories about rehypothecation, repatriation, stealing of allocated gold- they are probably doing that! 

What’s happened is that the end game is being played out, and the bankers certainly don’t want you to win!  And I can tell you that you will know the game is over when you hear Goldman Sachs is on the buy side of gold.   At that point you have a plethora of buyers, no sellers, and the game is over.   

CFTC Commissioner O’Malia asked me in March 2010 whether the COMEX could default.
I told him yes, it will default, it will default when all the gold leaves US shores and lands in China, Russia, and South Korea.  He looked at me and said ‘South Korea?’  And I told him South Korea!  And sure enough, South Korea is purchasing gold to a high degree.  You’re now seeing India, all eastern nations buying physical!  The only nation buying paper is Mexico, and they certainly found out the hard way when they bought 100 tons and found out it was unallocated and they simply got a piece of paper.  I believe they are trying to acquire physical now.

You’re now hearing stories of Germany and Austria, and they’re trying to repatriate their gold back to their homeland.  That’s when you start realizing that the pressure is on London.  The moment London is out you now have the derivative mess.  The derivative mess will be huge.  You’ll probably see a default in London, then a default in the COMEX, and that will do it! 

I personally spoke with Bart Chilton, and he used the following words: They’re wrapping the silver probe up in September and I expect to have a revealing of what goes on probably in October.  It’s now the end of December.   Bart Chilton personally informed me that the investigation on silver manipulation would wrap up in September.   Chilton’s worried because they’ve wrapped it up, and they can’t release the findings, because it would take everything down!

They can’t release the results because it’s the government that’s behind everything!  They’re behind all the trades, and they’re making such a mess of things that they can’t release the results, because no matter what they report they’ll be found guilty of a crime!

 

When The Doc asked Harvey to explain rumors of tightness in the silver market, when official COMEX inventories are substantially higher than early 2011 when they dipped below 100 million ounces, Harvey responded:

I have no faith whatsoever in the total registered nor the total eligible silver that they record.

I have no faith in the numbers for the simple reason that I see too much of the .000 indicating it’s a paper entry, and it’s really not there.  Remember that this is a physical market.  I want to see physical gold and silver.  When you consistently see .000 in the bar weight, that’s paper silver being inserted into the inventory as an obligation of someone.  The pieces of paper are being parceled out, and settling on accounts (with a bar number) all over the place!  They’re using .000, because it’s easier than having an oddball weight. 

It’s exactly what’s going on in London, there’s no difference!  London is fixed with obligations- that same ounce of gold is obligated to so many others!  That’s what’s going to happen with the COMEX.  That’s why MF Global was confiscated!  JP Morgan owed all it’s gold and maybe some silver as well, so they just took it in London!  That’s why no one should be trading in the COMEX anymore, just go buy physical metal, and be thankful that you got it so cheap! 

Don’t ask what the price is- the most important thing is that it’s physical!  It’s amazing what you will be able to buy with your silver and gold when this game ends.  That’s the big message that I can give you.

I talk to Bart Chilton, and the numbers that they give us seem to be phony.  If it’s a physical market, how can all the inventory movements possibly be .000?  And why when there’s settlements doesn’t the silver change from the registered down to the eligible? Nothing goes down to the dealer!  They have to settle!  Are they settling through the adjustments?  The figures they’re reporting are phony. 

The other thing that’s a huge concern is the numbers that are going through the silver vaults as opposed to gold.  Gold on any given day is quite comatose.  Every day in silver there are huge deposits, withdrawals, and adjustments.   The fact that the movements are massive every single day is evidence that they are short physical metal, and they are scrambling to pay Peter, to pay Paul- down in London, down in China where they’re asking for it. 

I hypothesized years ago that China has behind the main silver short, and it now seems that Turk and a few others believe that is the case.  China originally had 300 million ounces way back in 1949, and they didn’t know what to do with it, so they stored it- Taiwan got China’s 69 tons of gold, but the silver stayed in China for many years until China started to Westernize.

I believe China’s 300 million ounces of silver became the original inventory for the SLV, along with Buffett’s.  We are now seeing all this inventory go, and China is now manipulating the silver market down to pick up silver.  Silver demand is through the roof in China, they are massively importing tremendous amounts of silver.  This accumulation will be really damaging to JP Morgan who is massively short, who no matter what just cannot cover.

Keep an eye on the differential between the Shanghai silver price and the COMEX price.  Unless you have a physical delivery mechanism, you have 2 different markets.  So what you do is take delivery on the COMEX, and ship it by plane to Shanghai.  China could certainly bankrupt the COMEX any time it wishes.  If the American’s attempt to stop the silver exports, expect a swift and fierce reaction by China.  The worst thing is this will bankrupt the COMEX- a single 100 ton order and it’s bankrupt.

 

The Doc asked whether Shanghai and other Asian exchanges could simply cause the COMEX to fade into irrelevance:

No, it will default, then it will automatically become irrelevantThe Bank of England is the center of the fraud.  You have to look at the Bank of England.  The BOE stores the gold for many nations in Europe.  It’s there as a sub-custodian for the GLD.  If you deposit your gold at the BOE, they can do whatever they want with it.  It’s for deposit.  Of course they give you a lease rate, and they can lease it no matter what!

Germany is now shocked out of their minds!  They had no idea…which is fascinating, because we told them 10 years ago!  They did remove some of their gold in London 10 years ago we recently found out, but everyone else is still keeping it there, and that is why we recently saw the Queen of England.  It was a photo op to show that all the gold is there, but 70% has been leased out, and what you saw is what was left.  Too much has been leased out, creating a derivative nightmare for the BOE, which in turn will knock out the SLV and GLD, which will then knock out our friends at the COMEX, and then we have a financial nightmare.

 

Regarding his outlook gold and silver outlook for 2013 Harvey stated:

I think you will see a resolution of things by March (metals manipulation), but we have to be very careful as we are going through the fiscal cliff.  As we’ve seen, every time the DOW plummets they hit gold and silver.  They knock out the thermometer, they don’t want to show that things are that bad.  So I would be careful.  I really don’t pay attention to the price.  Just buy physical.  The politicians won’t get their act together regarding the fiscal cliff until the DOW has crashed.  I’m afraid that the economy will be so bad for all of us, it will be what we’re seeing in Spain and Greece.

 

 

Those who missed The Doc’s first interview with Harvey Organ can find it here, in which Harvey stated that the end game is being played out, that an Asian group has decided to take on the cartel and drain the physical silver from the COMEX, and that the bullion banking cartel’s suppression of the gold and silver markets is the ultimate treason against Americans, as 350 years of US wealth is being drained East due to the price suppression of gold and silver.


The Doc’s full 3 part audio interview with Harvey Organ is available now!

  1. The fact that China is involved in the manipulation has been something I have been saying for some time now. Just follow the metal. They are desperate to obtain phyzz anyway possible. Almost every government wants metal down! To take it from each other and their citizens. All these Chinese people buying that phyzz in  Chinese Wal-marts will end up turning it over as soon as the government tells them to. The U.S. and Canada may try the same thing. Canada sold ALL of its gold. They do still have some in the ground though. But, that will take time and money. After the crash they and us will be squeezed for both! Two Strong hands and to arms.

  2. IMHO, the writing is on the wall.  The Crimex, the LBMA, they are toast. The big 4 USBanks, the BOE, they are going to crash the whole thing because they are up to their keesters in worthless derivatives. In the end, only phyzz will matter. All who are holding paper will, like the dinosaurs, become extinct, metaphorically. Things are about to get real ugly.       

    • @ElaisaKasan 

      From what I know … Admiralty and Common Law Process are like oil and water. They can’t be simultaneously invoked on the same matter. Consequently, I’m of the opinion (which could be wrong) that this Action (Suit?) is a flawed conception that hasn’t constructive viability. On the other hand, it may have some novel way of intertwining the two that I simply can’t imagine.

  3. I say we give all the White Shoe Boys picks and shovels and say “Start Diggin!”  “Keep yer heads down and DIG !!”  “All I want to see is Elbows and Assholes !”  We could stand on the knoll with our Pitchforks and Torches sipping Mint Juleps…

    • And cattle prods… don’t forget the cattle prods… BZZZT! YEOW!!  WORK!  FASTER, you slimes!   lol
       
      Heh heh, I’m getting the hang of this rather quickly.
       
       

  4. What I find interesting about all of this is that in China a Silver Panda from the Bank of China will run you at current spot prices 500 yuan which is roughly $80 USD. You can go on ebay and buy that same Panda in the United States for about $45 USD tops.

    The mark-up in China for silver is astronomical. Of course the Bank of China is state-owned, thereby the state charges its own price, but you would think the state would charge as close as cost to allow Chinese citizens to soak up as much silver as they can. 

    • @ich1bbaN The Chinese are soaking their own people but the profit they make from them will buy more OZ’s for their Country in the West. Lol Or is it going into a Banksters pockets?

    • It’s safe to say the Chinese citizens are being soaked! But if the Bank of China is state owned then their citizens may not be paying intrest on the fiat the “bank” prints.

    • No, actually, I would not think that.  China is building a HUGE hoard of both gold and silver.  They know that the financial S is about to HTF and they want to be THE last guys standing when the paper Ponzi scheme collapses.  If they can get enough, they can literally BUY the entire world and run the whole ball of wax.  Yes, they allow their citizens to buy PMs and they even seem to be encouraging them to do so, BUT… this is not their primary goal… it is a secondary goal at best and one on which they want to make a huge profit.
       

    • “When the Chinese manipulate the PM markets they soak us too. I don’t like them very much!”
       
      Well, that’s just it, RRG.  NOBODY likes the Chinese very much.  Every country that borders on China hates them.  Even their buddies in North Korea preferred the Russians to them when they had a real choice.  Why is this?  Are they not just all lovable fuzzy Panda bears?  Apparently not, for to know them is to hate them.  There MUST be a reason for this and history likely provides it for those who want to read up on it.
       

  5. Man that’s a good interview, good for us as stackers but bad for the Western World as a whole. I also perked up when I read this Pat, just go buy physical metal, and be thankful that you got it so cheap! Amen!!!
     

  6. So Jamie Dimon is a chinese communist plant? He’s had plastic surgery to look western? For the manipulation to be at the behest of China, JP Morgan would have to be working for them. So they’ve essentially captured our “government” and the control over us they wield, without a shot!

    • You have to watch them plant people. They are really sneaky and weird. When I worked in industry as an engineer I heard a lot of rumors about the plant people. Once, I walked out into the factory and the plant people gave me mean looks, it was quite scary. Several of the truly indigenous plant people had containers hanging on their belts that they used to dispense a nauseous brown substance out of their mouths.

  7. Jack Webb   “Just the facts, ma’am
    Jack Nicholson  “The truth, you can’t handle the truth’
    Philosopher  ‘When the facts don’t agree, change the questions’
    Bart Chilton  ‘We don’t need no stinking facts’
    Harvey O ‘Forget the facts, buy the physical’

  8. Some observations to note:
    * Both China and Russia are known to follow GATA’s work closely.
    * It was not out of the blue that China suddenly started to encourage ownership of Silver and Gold by its citizens.
    * China and Hong Kong were the only remaining nations still under the Silver money standard as recently as 1935 (that is the year they finally abandoned the Silver standard, 62 yrs after the Western nations did in 1873).
    * In adopting a Gold-only standard at the expense of Silver, the wealth in Silver was suddenly transferred to Gold owners (and that is why China suffered great loss, as did the people throughout the world who held Silver as money).
    * In the Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote that it cost 1,000 oz of Silver per day to raise an army of 100,000 men (try to do the math for how much Silver’s value as money would need to be today, to be comparable.  HINT: It would be in the 5 digits of US Dollars per oz.)
    * It is a universal concept that the debtor is slave to the lender (and they say the US Fed is the ‘Lender of Last Resort’).
     

  9. Special thank you to Harvey for his wonderful site.  He’s been amazing to read the last few years!

    I don’t think China is really behind anything on the COMEX, instead I think a bullion bank is trying to conceal that there is a serious problem while China is importing silver and gold from everywhere in the world… direct from the miners (well, actually refiners!).  China is destroying the flow.  The bullion banks are destroying the stock.  Ultimately when the flow is sufficiently blocked by China and the physical PM consumers and investors (like us) is when we see COMEX and the LBMA collapse.

    The key is in the flow… and the flow just isn’t sufficient anymore to sustain the low prices of PMs

  10. Well, Harvey is right about buying physical, never mind the price, and just be happy you can FIND it!  My sources are drying up, er rather, the silver is drying up and my sources are just shrugging their collective shoulders.  If you find silver, an ounce or two, or a heavy duty cache, buy it and be THANKFUL!

    I recently got my Mandarin China Rosetta Stone CDs.  Got to get with the program, so I can go with the flow……  

    • I already learned French and German. If someone from China wants to speak to me then they need to know one of my three languages, might even be able to understand them in Latin to some extent, but I can think of no reason I will ever want to speak to any of them for any reason using their language. I know what I need to know to order Chinese food, that is good enough for me. I have never ran across any important reading in science that was in Chinese or Spanish. I am also understood at a Mexican restaurant when I order a taco.

  11. Wt, nw t’s th CHNS??!!?!

    LOL.

    Wll, whtvr t tks t gt yu ta cm ot of pckt wth mre “wrthlss ft” ad stck in “Dc’s” pckt, I gss.

    Stckrs trnd on Jm Rgrs, nd tdy it’s th CHNS!!!

    Nxt up?

    ANCNT ALNS?  Myb thy ar the RL shrts.  Rptlins, mybe.

    JST WOW. 

  12. I like Harvey Organ and anything he says is generally the immediate truth, but then the game changes
    daily and what is said today is always cold meat tomorrow. All Silver Guru Seer’s views change because
    the next move is not really predictable in sane devout terms. But straddling the current here with the doc
    is better than a slow hacking cough.

    Ranger from Texas

    • He’s both haha. This thesis makes sense. It is in China’s interest to get as much metal as possible at the lowest price possible so their reserves aren’t a joke anymore. Concurrently, it is in their best interest for USD not to fall precipitously (not yet anyway). That’s their paycheck for all the stuff they make. Nobody likes their pay decreased. Also, yuan is sort of pegged to dollars now. They don’t want runaway domestic inflation anymore than USSA does. And they will share in it. So it makes sense to short sell tons of paper gold and just take delivery from people dumb enough to sell it for $1600, like miners lol.

      Everytime a TBTF bullion bank of hotshot fund decides to short sell 10000 contracts in 1 minute, China pumps their fists and waits for the momos to give them a great price and they go “YESS!”.

      Silver at $29-30 in 2013 dollars is like <$15 silver in 2006-2008 dollars! BUY. HOLD. Not many things I can say about. Certainly none that will exist in present form 30 years from now. The money you don't need to live and pay bills. Money for the long haul. Money to "keep in the family" like any heirloom.

      I like gold but I'd rather pay $30 for something there are only a few billion of in existence. Not $1700 for something there is 5-6b ozs of laying around. Especially since this element is one of the most useful and highly demanded commodities on the planet and is a demand renaissance. Go silver. Just be patient. It took over 2 years to recover from the 2008 beatdown. It's been over 1 1/2 yrs this time.

    • Too bad you were born with an obvious learning and speaking disorder, there have been some recent breakthroughs in therapy you need to check into.

  13. For those who are awaiting the interview audio release…it should be available tomorrow.  I was boggled down helping the SDB team with the small stacker day sale.  Unbelievable how many small stackers are now regularly participating in the end of the month sale!  Thank you for all your support.

  14. From what I know the new world order agenda is real. The metal markets are the best indicator of how they’re doing. The fact that silver is being suppressed right along with gold tells me that they are desperately fighting against U.S. dollar devaluation, and public awareness to the federal reserve scheme. Because they aren’t ready yet, see the incredible effort by some in the msm to ban guns. The nwo depends on the dollar for all of their power and when it crashes, so do they. Make no mistake, they do not want ordinary people using gold or silver, because they know that would stop all of their corruption and market rigging dead in it’s tracks. They’re betting you lose your faith, and give in, that’s why they’re willing to take the chance of allowing physical to leave our shores. They’re rolling the dice, hoping that people don’t wake up. It’s very important that everyone who knows what’s going on warn others, because you won’t be buying any islands if the gov’t won’t let you out of the country, or allow you the use of bullion to buy and sell. This is the most important time in american history, if america goes collectivist, no amount of silver or gold will save you. It’s important to stack, more important to prepare for a collapse, but much more important to inform others.

    • “The nwo depends on the dollar for all of their power and when it crashes, so do they. ”
       
      For now.  It would not surprise me a bit for them to be planning to rather adroitly shift into PMs at just the right time to avoid the dollar crash and burn… all in good time… and they get to choose THE time.

  15. Bovine sewage. American investment in PM’s amounts to little to nothing in the pricing of PM’s. PM’s are being manipluated by the Anglo banking Cartels to control currency valuations, drive people’s investment dollars into paper markets (Stocks, Treasuries, Futures), to make billions on short trades, prevent any gold backed currency basket, and to make the metal so distasteful that who would dare to want their billion back from NYC or London.
     
    The Chinese are idiots. The have no clue as to the art of anything. All they know is what we tell them. They own our debt and we pay them back in manipulated bullion. Their nation has become a manufacturing base for several reasons, none of which is to be set up as the dominant economic super power with the world’s reserve currency.
     
    The art of war for American’s is to note Confucious, “if you believe everything you read, then do not read.”
     
    In case you guys did not notice, there is a bad wobble in the earth that created very high tides a few weeks passed. This is the reason for a lot of what you do not read in the papers. The US coasts will be toast, bringing an end to the derivative ponzi scheme, wiping the debt slate clean as well as securing America as a top tier oil producer (Gull Island) thus solidifying our position as the worlds only petro-dollar and reserve currency, with Denver as the center of the universe, not Hong Kong, Singapore, or Beijing.

    I honestly think the Rothchild gold is in Denver, mostly.

    • @Thomas: What about them Chinese cities? And do you have a timetable for all that sloshing back and forth? And I think they’re all in cahoots and hedging their bets, each continent is equipped to potentially house the elite of all persuasions.

       

    • The time table that we are able to ascertain is any time now. There are many signs pointing to an partial extinction event, and many are waking up to this.

    • I forget, tell me again how the time table was able to be ascertained by you and some unknown ‘we’ people. I must still be asleep with the extinction event thingy. Actually, I am trying to figure out what a partial extinction is. Does that come before or after becoming endangered? Glad I am too old now to become partially pregnant.

  16. OK so who is the rich yet stupid dupe that’s allowing physical settlement by allocated account at a COMEX vault? Just tell me which trader class he’s from. Who in their right minds is going to pay in full, with real money, for paper silver? The story that traders are stupid just doesn’t fly with me.

  17. So who–in here thinks– if 28 million US tax payers get slugged with the Alternative Minimum Tax retro activly for 2012 and payable April 15th 2013….that PM’s are going to get sold off like crazy–driving the prices way way down???

    • Lol a True Stacker will hold on to his Stack, tell the IRS he has no Fiat and is broke, can’t afford his house anymore, can’t afford gas, can’t get a job, so the IRS will turn them over to the State for subsistance, Welfare, foodstamps and maybe a free phone and guess what? He’ll still have his stack. Lol and if that scenario doesn’t work, then a year in Federal Prison, 3 meals a day and keep but he will still has his stack. I’m having a fun morning. Lol

    • Well M45 just thinking the last thing anyone needs as a giant income tax bill they weren’t expecting….
      Oh how that will serve the US economy….
      Everyone hyping how PM’s are going to soar in the new year and all….
      But if nobody has ANY spare cash— or thier wife kicks the shit out of ‘em to sell PM’s to pay an extra $3000 to the IRS on top of what they were already paying for 2012, or losing their refund…..maybe a guy would be wise to keep lots of dry  to stack with till summer……..provided of course he had some left after Uncle Sam gets his hand outta his pocket…..oh, wait Summer is when we are ‘spoze to get the years lowest prices….Damb!    So if we are really low till summer…and it stays low till fall…..um,  help me I’ve gone crossed eyed…. 

    • M45, right on. I will add that better to not tell your spouse, if you have one, how much you have accumulated. The odds of a divorce or falling out will leave you with half of what you tell them you have. I have been through three divorces and still have all mine. The fact is your spouse can easily end up being your worse enemy. Let them have the house, the car, the kids, but not the silver. Maybe not the dog either. The silver will soon be able to buy all these back, including the kids.

    • Wow!  You guys are so much more domestically experienced than lowly old me.  I’m still working on the 1st wife after 43 years of marriage.  Makes me feel as if I am being left out… sorta.
       

  18. What about those ghost cities in China? Well, they are not waiting for the American privileged class, that is for sure. China has been suppressed in where to park the profits from what the Industrial West has showered on them. They will always be the slave labor that makes the things for the next world age, the one without American Exceptionalism. There is no doubt the 41 or so industries in atheist communist government structure is making profits. There is also limitations and a time factor in how much they can do with the money. The deep water fleet takes years to build, hydro power dams etc., space programs. It takes years to steal information from the West and reverse engineer it.
    There is more, but the cities in China are for the Chinese, just a place to park their billions due to availability (or lack) of particular (their mining of) raw materials, built to increase the industrial base  etc, to build out the infrastructure first while expanding the industry base shop by shop, factory by factory. They and the Russians think they can outwit the Rothchilds and Rockefellers and the House of Windsor. They have another thing coming. The so called elite have been manipulating human history for hundreds of years….do you really think they goofed because they were….greedy? The untold trillions stolen form the world are not sitting in bank vaults. The money is being used to gain knowledge of the universe to use for their private conquests and survival. We all have been used.
    The so called elite go so far back as to even manipulate and take down the powers that really could have thwarted their satanic worshipping. Do you really think the Protestant Revolution was by chance? Or the wars in Iraq and such was for oil? How about key assassinations or attempts in the last 650 years? They have to take down religion, control the money, and will take down the US Constitution to get at our vast resources. To do that, and they are doing a fine job, it takes a faithless generation or two that is vastly uneducated in the schools. So far they are winning at this game. The price is very cheap for them…all you have to do is kneel down to them and you get every pleasure and creature comfort they offer….
     

  19. Excellent prospectives on this blog and web site as a whole. Just visited for the first time. It would seem that when the physical supply can not meet the physical demand, the gig is up for sure. The NWO is not only manipulating the price of precious metals, they are spraying our atmosphere with toxic metals. Climate modification programs called “geoengineering” are wreaking havoc over the entire planet. Wonder why ADD, Alzheimer’s, autism, and a long list of other diseases are going through the roof? Wonder why the weather is so “off”? Just another part of the NWO plan. See geoengineeringwatch.org
     

    • Don’t need to check that site out, have heard it all from Alex Jones a million times, but I don’t recommend anyone to listen to him unless you enjoy getting depressed.

  20. Danew  welcome to the site.  Chemtrails, geoengineering and HAARP seem to be pretty settled science, such as it is.  These things are really almost overwhelming in their evilness since mortal man has decided to play God.  That usually does not work out as expected.
    I was doing a little data grinding this morning after reading way too much about the fiscal cliff.  There are very pointed dangers to this, much like geoengineering, but on a monetary scale. 
    The most important items to me are a real threat of the government hitting the debt limit.  If that happen several things will come about.  We are deficit  spending at a $150 billion a month level, up nearly $50 billion since last year. It could go higher as the first quarter of 2013 is a low tax revenue time of the year with substantial outflows due to tax refunds.  If the debt limit is not fixed by December 31 2012, there will be very little in the well to fund the government operations.  ESF has about $40 billion but that’s going to be needed for the Plunge Protection and Precious metal manipulation.  The Federal pension funds were tapped in mid 2011 when Geithner used those funds to carry government operations for about 2 months.  A national emergency IRA grab could be implemented to sustain gov ops in the first quarter of 2013.  Tax refunds could be delayed for months, so don’t count that in your cash flow. 
    We will most certainly see another one or even two rating downgrade even if minor tweaks are done to shove off the tough cliff decisions. Raters do not reward incompetence.  Fitch and S&P will be the first to lower the boom. This will precipitate a major market selloff but could push metals prices higher.  Debt rating might be as low as Aa- with a negative outlook.  Monthly deficits could easily hit $200 billion in January. The monetization of our debt will turn up very fast as the Fed goes into printing overtime. QE 4 with $85 billion will be quickly expanded to QE 5 at $200 billion and month.
    This will make our dollar even weaker but Europe is worse off still since their last QE tranche failed and was underbid by about 20 billion Euros.  They are repatriating their funds from the US market to handle major insolvency issues in France, Spain and Italy, figuring also that the US might not be the best safe harbor. Bailing out the Euro zone will take higher priority.
    If the cliff is not resolved our GDP will take a 5% hit, with an additional 2 million unemployed. Another 2 million lose their benefits in January. That will hurt badly, very badly.   I am not nearly as worried about  taxes  increases as they take a while to work their way through the paycheck and tax system but we will see an average of $3,000 in personal cash flow drop due to the average tax increase.  However that loss could tip some people over into insolvency. The minimum increase at the lowest income levels is a 4% hike.

    These are just the tips of the ice berg and don’t take into account what will happen to Japan, the UK and other heavily leveraged economies but I think what happens here at home will be enough to keep our undivided attention.  Derivaltives play into this theme but their effects are mostly unknown at present.
    It is possible the the Treasury will hold up payments on SS, SNAP and EBT along with slow downs or reductions in military pensions and pay checks.  Private and military medical coverage payments may be delayed, thus making it hard on the medical industry to provide timely service. Expect delays in appointments and service. Get your medical needs lined up early.
    This is only a guess but if the government runs out of funds by end of January, all this is possible.   Partial SS checks and other mandated payments and entitlements are a real possibility.   The TEOWACKI/SHTF potentials increase exponentially  if those who live on the edge, totally reliant on government transfer payments, have a monetary failure and start going hungry.
    The DHS is ready for this and if it happens, even in a localized manner within a major city, the entire metric of financial problems changes on a dime and we have something far more serious on our hands. See the riots in Spain and Greece as examples of what can happen when ordinary citizens find themselves in a serious amount of pain and going hungry.
     Not saying this will happen. Maybe the fools in DC will come up with a miracle, but we are very short on substantive options at the stage of the game. Neither the paychecks of these multi millionaires will not stop nor will their financial situations change much, so the political gamesmanship is the order of the day, not something very aligned with the folks like us who are going to get hammered if things are not straightened out.
    If it was me, I would have at least 2-4 weeks of food and water set aside along with as much cash as needed to get by for 1 month.  Be watchful vigilant and as fearless as possible. Your strength will provide encouragement for others not in the know or prepared for these possible eventualities.
     Evey one know my opinion on firearms.
     Ally yourself with trusted friends and crack open the Bible for some solid reading during this time of uncertainty.  This coming from a heathen like me is saying something.  That tells you my level of real concern. 

    • Hi, read your article at Silver Bear Cafe. The pattern we have is they put on the dog and pony show for the GOP faithful, then get embarrassed by the Tea Party, then walk us to the deadline. Come Sunday AM, a deal will be voted on. American’s lose. Boehnor and McConnell will pass anything to kick the can. This is all well rehearsed with upper management in Congress.
       

  21. The price suppression/manipulation of PM will go on for as long as TPTB want it to happen.  Those playing the market, trading and so on, are counting on the fraud continuing.  Some day it will all be over, but for awhile longer it will be business as usual.  There are more assets to strip, guns to confiscate, and the Internet to hobble before the system unzips.  It will be a sight to see, but likely still a ways off.  Prepare yourself for the long haul, as TPTB have a stranglehold up and down the chain of command.

    The masses are mesmerized:

  22. so much stuff out there … i was holed up in my bunker with my silver and baked beans waiting for the mayan prophecy to come true i emerged four days later having missed christmas to be told that i would be hurtling over some cliff in the next few days … i think its safer to go back to my bunker once i let a bit of fresh air into it … baked beans and enclosed spaces is toxic …

    • If the wrongly interpreted Mayan prophecy did come true, being in a bunker wouldn’t have helped. If I had believed it, I would have got out a lawn chair, rolled up a left handed cigarette and enjoyed a front row seat.

    • “If I had believed it, I would have got out a lawn chair, rolled up a left handed cigarette and enjoyed a front row seat.”
       
      Good plan.  Reserve me a chair but make mine a bottle of 18 year old single malt.  :-)
       

  23. yes that has appeal … but given no one was completely sure what we were all going to die of i thought it would be good to spend some close personal time with my silver… as im now waiting to hurl of a cliff i get a second chance to spend intimate moments with my silver …. if i survive the fall i might just go and buy a bit more silver

    • …and I thought I was the only one that fondled my silver. Another reason to buy circulated 90%, it is easier to caress and have intimate moments while holding it in your hand. What I have to say about the proverbial cliff is “Bah, Humbug”. Scrooge them.

    • “What I have to say about the proverbial cliff is “Bah, Humbug”. Scrooge them.”
       
      Yeah… and the flea-bitten swaybacked nag they rode in on, too.
       

  24. This whole “fiscal cliff” thing is so much BS that it is virtually palpable.  The talking heads on CNBC are all a-dither about it, constantly raging against Americans actually being responsible and (gasp!) paying for all the government BS we’ve ordered up or at the very least failed to stop.  The party IS ending but all they wanna do is dance away the happy hours and keep the punch bowl filled.  Maybe when the reality of our situation hits them in the face like a thrown brick, they will grasp the idea that the BS that they are shoveling for their elite masters is due for a serious flush.  For now, of course, they still have their uses but when that time ends, they too will be flushed.

  25. Ed B
    I hate the word Fiscal Cliff  almost as much as I dislike ‘At the end of the day’   These jackasses have been racing towards what we face now for 30 years and –all of a sudden—we are at the edge of the precipice.  Given the fact that Ben Bernanke came up with this phrase, it tells me it was pushed into the common phrasing because people are stupid enough to get sucked in by this bit of MOPE garbage.  It’s like yelling squirrel in front of a pack of dogs.  ‘Squirrel’ and everyone is off to the races. 
    But don’t underestimate the deviousness of the political class to delude and deceive us with these catch phrases.  We are suckers for the next quip with a whip. Terrorism, Whip Inflation Now, Homeland Security, Threat level Mauve (that’s as serious as it gets)  This is bull crap.  We get this screed of phrases that dumbs down the argument while the politicians work up some bipartisan solution. You can be sure that when the idiot you voted for and the idiot your didn’t vote for come up with that solution it’ll make your wallet light and  your a** ache.   Bipartisanship?  Equal opportunity screwing.
    Word for the day?
    Glenlivet

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