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Gold VaultHarvey Organ joins the SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap this week to warn of a possible February COMEX Gold Default:

  • Continued decline in “registered” gold inventory at the COMEX- 2o tons of gold “kilo bars” withdrawn from JPM vaults headed to Hong Kong!
  • 2014 will mark the year where physical forces deep “managed retreat” in the least
  • Geopolitical and Global Macro review:  From MyRA & pension fund confiscation to Ukraine & Emerging Markets
  • Fed Taper Review- Eric believes the Fed will overshoot tapering to $50 billion/month, while Harvey believes Wednesday’s taper will be the last
  • Harvey discusses why February may very well see strains to the point of the long anticipated COMEX default in gold!

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets with Harvey Organ is below:


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We’re coming to you after the Thursday market close.  Harvey Organ, publisher of “Harvey Organ’s Daily Gold & Silver Report” joins us for a spirited conversation.  Harvey is now publishing daily during the market week, by the way.  Check out his website.

This time last week, the blogosphere was still a buzz with fear that China’s shadow banking system was going to implode this week.  But as we correctly noted, there were already indications that China was not going to let that happen.  Certainly, they have only kicked the can down the road.  But a centrally planned economy does have certain advantages.  Unlike many analysts, I believe China has a good chance of being able to continue a difficult juggling act, managing to deal with their huge mal-investment and underwater credit burden.  I still believe China will continue to aggressively reform and internationalize their financial markets.  They will be able to let their currency rise even as much of the rest of the emerging markets continue to struggle.

Meanwhile, China’s appetite for gold shows no sign of abating.  This week is setting up for record shattering Shanghai Gold Exchange off-take.  Between Monday, Jan. 27th and Thursday, Jan 30th, 92.434 metric tonnes have been removed from the exchange.  Odds are, we’ll see weekly off-take hitting an all time record, exceeding 100 metric tonnes!  Tune into the show for extensive analysis of this and related inventory dynamics.

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This week, rather than seeing precious metals take a large beating in advance of the Fed’s FOMC statement, the cartel waited for today to remind people who’s boss (for now).  The timing is most likely influenced by the proximity of “first notice” day, as Harvey explains.

Friday is Uncle Ben’s last day at the office.  Maybe we should post one last “Punt The Bernank” Friday for old time sake.  We’ll miss B.S. Ben.  But Janet Yellen will no doubt have her comedic moments, worthy of satire.

Keep an eye on the Ukraine.  The US media is not covering that story with suitable detail.  The Ukraine could easily trigger a black swan scenario.  The News Doctors has highlighted a number of detailed reports, including this one from Russian Television.  Keep an eye on TND for continued coverage.

We also recommend you make time for a revealing 2 minute video that highlights Russian perspective on the US Dollar.  Click here.

Thanks for listening,

Eric Dubin

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  1. Y’know, with Jim Willie talking about 18,000 tons of gold being purchased by China in the past two years and Karen Hudes’ passing comments about the Fed holding a “secret” gold stash in Hawaii, it baffles me as to how no one is asking the question this scenario begs. We KNOW demand remains at all-time highs, both for individuals and sovereigns, we KNOW this has gone on longer than was originally thought to be mathematically possible, so is there more gold/silver above ground available for physical investment than we’re being told? Potentially much more?
     
    Where did the majority of the Nazi pilfered gold go, as a propaganda movie comes out on the subject? Where did France’s smuggled gold during the same era end up? Ancient Ottoman gold after WWI? Certainly not all ended up in the Bretton Woods coffers. How about the gold under WTC6? Fort Knox?
     
    Obviously no one really knows and this stuff is virtually impossible to verify, but it’s a scenario I think more commentators/interviewers should at least touch on. What do you guys think? Am I off my rocker? :/

    • it baffles you too huh?  Well I’ve been waiting for somebody else to make this same observation. Nobody seems to know what can of worms this opens up if what Hudes claims is true.  Nobody has put their head through the wringer and asked themselves WHAT IF what she says is true?  Are any of you stackers coughing up Gold to help your good buddies at the comex?  Why would anybody else at this point?  That would mean that the DOD is watching the investment bankers at the comex and LBMA squirm and flounder about for one. It would mean that National Geographic is not the definitive source for finding out how much Gold has been mined in world history for two. It would mean that the price of metal is derived more from inflation of currency instead of published inventories of precious metals.  That’s just what I get out of it. 

    • @CerebralIndustrialComplex
      WHERE did all the gold go?
       
      I asked Bob Chapman this question when I first talked to him as a caller on another show before I had my show…  He said that a significant portion of the Gold recovered by the Allies in WWII ended up being absorbed back into the BlackOps world at the beginning of the Cold War to finance the massive defense buildup to face the new Communist threats.  But he also observed that much was hoarded by the US after the war and held up until the ’80′s when Reagan announced the build up of the military to topple the the Soviet Union.  The story goes on to say that the US secretly appropriated the stores of Nazi Gold which had found their way to the Phillipines by way of South America and that Barrick Gold was founded at the behest of the the US government to produce the illusion of a highly productive gold mining operation, when in truth, Peter Munk, was ‘commissioned’ to create Barrick as a gold laundering operation by which the government could finance the Top Secret Star Wars programs while reintroducing the new quantities of the war-gold hoard into the market to hold down the price rise. He always claimed the World Gold Council numbers were vastly understated by this gold-cartel shill organization for much the same reasons the diamond cartel creates the illusion of scarcity to hold up perceptions of value.

      Here’s a link to some real interesting history re: the gold story… read with discernment but there is a lot of very real stuff in here:

      http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/secretgoldtreaty/contents.htm

    • @Sovereign Economist

      Why would they utilize gold for funding war and black ops when there is always a constant flow of drug running proceeds? Drug trade is the best means of funding since it is all below the table, never to be accounted for. CIA has been the majority bulk supplier for decades…via military transport.
       

      http://scribblguy.50megs.com/ciadrugs.htm

       
      Bear in mind, that is why we are still in Afghanistan…………… to keep the poppy production growing and flowing.

    • @SilverSlicker
      “Why would they utilize gold for funding war and black ops when there is always a constant flow of drug running proceeds?”
       
      Remember that, back in the ’50′s, there wasn’t an international drug trade to speak of…  and what the CIA was engaged in was predominantly used to facilitate our puppet state powers in Latin America remaining in power, i.e. shutting up and being nice little puppets!  :)   A few ‘mining’ front companies were started to cover the laundering of the war proceeds. 
       
      In the ’60′s, as the Vietnam war spooled up and as Johnson fired up the Great Society, other nations got concerned about our profligate spending.  While DeGaulle got most of the press for repatriating gold to France in exchange for the paper dollars, he wasn’t the only one.  So, a portion of the hoards were redirected. They followed our mantra here… ONLY PHYZZ! So, drug money wasn’t suitable and the laundered phyz was redirected to lessen the drawdown of the ‘official’ gold stores.
       
      Once the gold bubble burst in 1980, the rise in interest rates killed the gold price and now the elites stepped in to hoard while it was cheap, knowing full well that, in 20 years, they would bring the dollar under pressure and it would rise again.  With this competing ‘demand’ for ‘money’ that was when the people in charge really caught on to how much they needed a new revenue source and this is what really led to the ramp up of the drug trade.  That’s when they originally set up the Mexican families with the drug money to get their operations going full-bore and the first time they also applied pressure to the Mexican government to stand down and let the business thrive.  The agreement, in return, was that the drug lords agreed to keep their violence away from the Mexican citizens to prevent civilian attention and outrage from being focused on the issue.
       
      And, so it actually wasn’t until the late ’80′s and into the early ’90′s that the drug trade really took off at the level it’s done today with the real intent being to support the globalist cause (with US involvement…)  Barrick was founded in 1983 by Peter Munk, whose history with the dark side was allegedly bright and colorful.  Star Wars and the secret projects would never have been possible without a several orders of magnitude increase in spending, but, in this case, it was imperative that this spending not be subject to Congressional oversight.  Even the drug trade had a level of awareness that compromised it’s secrecy.  But, even until now, the gold laundering operation had managed to evade any disclosure and became the safe funding alternative.
      A look at Barrick’s troubles today and you realize that the laundering function is probably mostly over by now…  they have to make profits the old-fashioned way today…  they have to DIG for them…  and, they ain’t doing so well…. LOL!

    • @SilverSlicker
       
      “Bear in mind, that is why we are still in Afghanistan…………… to keep the poppy production growing and flowing.”
       
      Not that it couldn’t do just fine on its own.  A poppy farmer earns several times what farmers can earn from any food or fiber crop, so the economic incentive is definitely there.  In fact, that pie would be even bigger without Uncle Sugar’s big gnarly hairy thumb shoved into it.
       

    • @Soveriegn Economist That makes a whole lot of sense, thanks for the history lesson. I’ve always wondered what role PMs played in financing black ops pre-Golden Triangle/OPEC ever since reading Sutton’s “War on Gold.” There seems to be plenty of anecdotal evidence that deep politics still operates on metals to this very day, as Libyan and Iraqi central bank gold most likely ended up in the coffers of American financiers. What went on during the supposed “Arab Spring” may very well have been a crack at Egyptian gold as an alternative motive.
       
      The laundering of stolen gold through mining companies sounds fascinating, do you happen to have a link to any of the Chapman interviews/articles that reference it?

      @andrew-james
      “It would mean that National Geographic is not the definitive source for finding out how much Gold has been mined in world history for two.”
      Glad to know I’m not the only one who picked up on this. There needs to be far more scrutiny from commentators as to where these numbers come from and who funds them. Exhibit A: http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/grants/grants-and-grantees/60e147da-7c38-4376-a94a-b3bba484a00e
       
       

    • @CerebralIndustrialComplex
       
      In a fit of ambition, I have chosen to reactivate my Sovereign Economist Blog that was created to be a companion to my radio show back in 2009.  I never used it back when the microphone was ever more efficient at putting a lot of information out into the world.  But, the idea is for me to go back through all the audio show archives again and catalog and put up some of the good stuff from the conversations with Bob over the almost 3 years we did the show together.  I remember we talked about the gold history a lot, so, I’ll try to put that up as I come across it.
       
      Fascinating to read the story broke about Rockefeller’s secretary on SD today…. in my historical post above, I left out that, in the ’70′s the US gold was already starting to  be, apparently, re-appropriated to the private elites.  When Dr. Beter, broke that story in the mid ’70′s, he was, at the time marginalized as simply being a Rockefeller hater, but, as Bob said, “Where there’s smoke, there is probably missing gold in this case.”  Bob said the furor over Beter’s allegations actually caused this theft to have to be curtailed for a few years to let the public attention and the heat die down a bit, and then only really picked up momentum again some 10 years later in the ’80′s.

      Antony Sutton’s book “The War on GOLD” is a pretty good read on the history of gold back then. Chapman and Sutton knew each other well and collaborated on many projects pursuing the truth on matters such as this at the time.

  2. The tonnage of kilo bars discussed has me wondering now … is there a North American refiner/fabricator making these things, and if so, to what degree of fineness? Whose impression is being stamped into them?

    Doc, inquiring minds want to know!

    • Having listened religiously to KWN broadcasts, I’m still more inclined to believe that China, the Fed, JPM, IMF, et. al. are working hand-in-hand to equalize East to West commodity holdings for a new global monetary order. The Anglo-American Establishment are power-hungry control freaks, but they’re certainly not stupid.
       
      When the chickens come home to roost, I think we’ll come to find that China and America have monopolized both military and financial global control. The only substantive difference that I can see, from where I sit, is China’s willingness to inform “commoners” of this coming monetary transition by letting them “in on the game” so to speak, largely to prevent the fomentation of rebellion. The West, however, goes to extreme lengths to keep us in the dark, leaving the oligarchs sittin’ pretty and the uninformed population destitute.
       
      But who the hell really knows, eh? All speculation until curtain call.

    • @CerebralIndustrialComplex
       
      “Having listened religiously to KWN broadcasts, I’m still more inclined to believe that China, the Fed, JPM, IMF, et. al. are working hand-in-hand to equalize East to West commodity holdings for a new global monetary order.”
       
      You BETCHA! And, don’t forget to include the US Government, Treasury, et al.

      Postscript on reread: Equalize of course means that some will be ‘more equal’ than others. As in the West will be drained to be equal to around zero.

    • “The West, however, goes to extreme lengths to keep us in the dark, leaving the oligarchs sittin’ pretty and the uninformed population destitute.”
       
      Just consider this as part of “mushroom management”, where they feed us BS and keep us in the dark.  ;-)
       

    • Ahh Ranger, I see you are gradually becoming an Andrew McGuire fan? :)  There are some good articles on KWN, I used to read them religiously myself in 2011 & 2012.

  3. Anyone else having trouble with the audio?  Part of me is thankful i don’t have to hear the assclownery from harvey about dec contracts not being settled or how everyone had to deliver or roll their feb positions by yesterday… the other part of me is like those annoying drivers on the highway that like to rubberneck the car accidents… i just can’t wait to see which shoe enters his mouth next!

    All joking about misunderstanding of the delivery process aside… yesterday i commented that only 55 contracts were delivered into an open interest of almost 20,000 contracts. Virtually a pittance and shows the longs are in control. To further validate this, gold was a 30c carry to april yesterday and today settles at a 30c inverse… what does that mean? It means yesterday if you were short the long was willing to pay you 30c to wait until April to deliver your gold. Today, you now have to pay the long 30c to wait to April to get his gold.

    That is a $600 per contract swing in the value of immediate delivery gold in one day. Something could change in the near future, someone may be waiting on an influx of gold to use to make delivery, but it appears the longs are in control… if there was ever a time to put serious pressure on the comex system, this is it. Can’t wait to see if there are any changes with tonights intentions or if they remain weak.

    • And tonight in gold… 4 cnts delivered!  Wowza! Open interest down to 9k due to large trade yesterday. Lots to be settled still, though down significantly even without deliveries.

  4. Talk on the internet is that the Ukraine uprising may have been fueled by Arab Spring originators. Pamphlets are reportedly spread among the public with similar layout and working, just translated from the Arab version used in Egypt. The US embassy is said to have been a factor. 
    People with knowledge of the Ukraine situation say that the uprising must have been funded by someone. Too organized for just a few people to go out and pull off. 
    If this is a “”Former Soviet Spring” starting…we need to worry. Perhaps the globalists resented the Ukraine flipping off the EU, and now look for other means to get Ukraine under their influence? break the country down, have the church intervene, and get a globalist puppet on the throne.
    Any thoughts?

    • “Any thoughts?”
       
      Yes – The Ukraine in in danger of splitting into east Ukraine and west Ukraine and if this indeed begins to happen, then Russia will send in its military to restore the country.
       
      It would be better for all of us if the US and European nations do not intervene.

    • Well if this is indeed globalist intervention, then it’s likely the Arab Spring protocol. Get new election going, and appoint the person to go and win it. What can Russia do against a new democratic leader? The Egyptian people had to come up with an actual uprising hen the globalist puppet was not of their liking after all. 
      And how to know that Russia is not in on this, looking to scoop up East Ukraine if things unfold (literally) that way?
      In Moldova, Russia has already been stealing land. And not getting obvious revenue from it.
      I’ve been there. Checkpoints within the Moldavian borders, to get into Transnistria, now a Russian enclave. Life seems OK there to be honest with you, pensioner still get their due. And a nice system actually: the veteran pension pot is divided over the still living veterans. So the surviving are getting more pension every year. My friend’s grandmother was a very young nurse in WWII and is still being recognized for it. Someone will likely correct me which is welcome.

    • Ok,
      so let’s get our heads out of the sand and be honest: Every world power messes with the other world power’s interests and tries to promote its own interests through clandestine activities.
      So, people act outraged that America uses its CIA to foment unrest in Ukraine: what, you think Russia doesn’t do the same in the West and elsewhere? 
      Ok, so then, the question is: What do Ukrainians want?
      Well, West Ukraine is pro-West (gasp), and Eastern Ukraine is pro-Russia (gasp).
      Ok, so who then is more patriotic? While I am no fan of the EU, I’m even less a fan of Russia.
      Truth is, Ukrainian expats in the West are more independent than pro-Russia Ukrainians, and the West does not stand to benefit from Russia gaining power.
      Ok, that being said, so you cry about Islamic jihadists getting waterboarded in Guantanamo? About Israeli services roughing up Muslim Arab detainees?
      Ok, here is what Russian thugs do to Ukrainian protesters:  

      http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2014/02/01/01003-20140201ARTFIG00176-la-torture-d-un-leader-de-l-opposition-ukrainienne-provoque-l-indignation-des-occidentaux.php

      Russia is its own friend, not yours, not Ukraine’s.
       
       

  5. Obsessing over Comex, which seems to be a fraction of the physical market, how relevant is that?
    If Switzerland can get huge inflow of gold to work 24/7 on, some could be routed COMEX vaults just as well.

    And yes, if CH has a stuffed pipeline of gold to refine, it’s all coming from somewhere. Is it just LBMA cleaning out? Is it royal family/war gold? If they managed to supply this much, there is no telling how much stock there really is. Just that is was A LOT for sure, and until it runs out, it’s getting larger. Not so scarce after all.

    All COMEX seems to be is a stream of cryptical figures for us to obsess over while China may be sucking 1,000 tonnes per month out of the west. And Harvey is freaking out of 20 tonnes leaving a mayor bullion bank vault. 
    If there is 2,000-odd tonnes being produced annually, there is no knowing it will NOT end up right at COMEX. So far they have not run dry, no reason to expect it to happen any time soon. Doesn’t COMEX also have an in-flow? Don’t the driving powers have unlimited cash to get gold? The moment they go into the market and pay a premium, the gold will flow back to them for sure. 

    • no need to obsess, but i am intrigued as they are the most transparent look the average joe has to the physical bullion world, outside of retail prices.

      Two indicators i watch, is gold leaving or entering and is the price structure a carry or inverse. The behaviors (deliveries) allow one to make predictions as to this

    • But is it a relevant look into the physical world?
      Nice and elaborate and possible even factual figures. But does it mean anything if China is able to keep the Swiss refiners from getting a proper night’s sleep? 3x8hr shifts, that’s a lot of gold.
      And I hope to get input from someone in the know.
      Could it be those huge amounts are not going East directly, but being stored in Switzerland or Germany, to keep them out of the closely guarded Chinese import figures? CH is a traditional vault nation, and Germany made itself ready to store their own gold again when repatriated. Surely Ch is colluding with China, and Germany as a key exporter nation would be wise to keep China a close friend.

    • It certainly gives an insight as to the pricing of comex gold and the rest of the world.
       
      Gold leaving, comex is too low
      Gold entering, comex is too high
       
       
      Knowing london would be a better gauge, but other than the fix there is n ot much information?  All i want is a sniff test.  I think the calendar spreads are certainly relevant, and being a physical mkt the prices are relevant as well, and the arbitrage of in and out becomes relevant as well.
       
      Is it the only piece to watch? surely not.

  6. Recorded on Thursday?  Well, you lucked out with the silver price,
    since it was 19.16 when you published this and it closing at 19.165
    on Friday. 
     
    Yup, yup.
    China’s President tells it people to buy gold and silver and is buying
    it, itself, like crazy. 
     
    Obummer isn’t buying gold and silver, and tells the American People
    to put what ever money they have left, into a MyRA.  And to top it off,
    when you die, the MyRA money goes to THE GOVERNMENT.  NO ONE ELSE.
     
    Oh yeah, it keeps getting better and better.
     
    Harvard Economist withdrawing a million dollars from his BoA checking Account.
    I say, what took him so long? 
     
    OK, @Marchas45 – you have 88 hits on last weeks Silver Recliner Report.  Looking
    forward to this week’s…
     
     

    • “And to top it off, when you die, the MyRA money goes to THE GOVERNMENT.  NO ONE ELSE.”
       
      Sounds as if they are using the Social Security model of fairness and equality there.  Oh, wait.  I forgot about the $255 death “benefit” that SS has.  :-/
       

    • No, it won’t.  Back in the 1930s, $255 was the equivalent of just over 7 ozs. of gold, so one could use that to buy a cheap pine box and have it buried somewhere.  Had this benefit been indexed to inflation it would be about $9100 today.  While still not a lot, at least that would be somewhat useful and not completely insulting.
       

    • That’s my best picture so far.  Canon (SX-500 IS).  30x optical.
      Well, looks like he’s on his way back to Seattle.  Haven’t seen him since.
      This is the second time I’ve seen the 787 come out here to cruise around.
       
       

  7. Some day we will be mining dumps for the little bit of precious metals in electronics that have been buried. Maybe even start mining the satellite belt for the thousands of pounds of gold in defunct satellites.

    • No need to stop there, Mary, just keep going and mine the asteroids too!  Just imagine the impact on the PM market of finding an asteroid that is very rich in gold or platinum and weighs several billion tons.  At that point, we all could have a few gold bricks.  :-)

    • MaryBEd_B
       
      Ironic we’d have to venture out to asteroids, only to reconfirm lessons already handed down from the late Middle Ages. In that time the ‘Spanish School’ (Salamanica) economists had explained the post-Plague explosion of wages and prices despite unprecedented plenty of goods. As it turned out, an equivalent feat to reaching metallic asteroids, that is access to the Americas, flooded European economies with silver and gold. That huge monetary inflation in circulation was seen to be ‘balanced’ by the wage and goods prices, leading to the recognition that however much … or little … money media, its relative value trends to equal available goods.

      Thus, whether plunder of the Americas or of an asteroid for an abundance of additional money metals … its desired effect will be for naught at length. Only a very brief time will appear to be ‘richer’. In the end, the matrix of goods (money included among them) seeks rational equilibration throughout its entirety.

      The only practical macro-economic reason to have more money material in circulation, therefore, is to have media that isn’t too tiny for regular daily usage … or too voluminous as to require boxes full of it.

  8. But as always… it must not rot, rust, or deteriorate.  Thus Gold and Silver are galactic money! :) 
    -WAIT!!! A THOUGHT!  If there is no oxygen in space, then at least theoretically, Iron would not rust if stored long term on space stations, or moon storage units? :)

  9. You can find the video either on youtube or linked over at newsdoctors.  I actually liked listening to Harvey more than I like reading his blog, however his repetition of “customer” and “dealer” positions are ridiculous.
     
    Also it’s first notice day, not first day notice, but hey, he’s Canadian!

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