silver parabolicToday’s chart of the day examines silver’s 12 year logarithmic parabolic up-trend chart that began in 2001. 
Silver is just now approaching it’s parabolic up-trend line for the first time since 2009, and only 2nd time since 2002.
The last time silver touched its parabolic uptrend line the metal rose from 8 to $50 in 3 yearsThe only other time since 2002 that silver touched it’s vertical up-trend line was in 2003, after which silver went on a tear from $3.50/oz to $21.35/oz over the next 5 years.

Silver is now approaching it’s vertical uptrend line near $32.  Should the same percentage gain be repeated as the prior two occurrences, silver would need to rise to over $200/oz by 2016-2018

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silver parabolic

Chart image courtesy

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    • And I don’t mean to be overly critical at all. Some of the technical analysis can be helpful and insightful. But if my confidence rested on the multitude of these silver prophecies which have never come to pass, I would have sold a long time ago. But I am long silver because it is a rock solid investment. It is a real asset and has been since the beginning of man. It is cheaper than it has ever been in history, but also more in demand than ever. And there are so many other reasons, but I don’t think there’s any need to talk a whole lot about specific prices, certainly not in sensational fashion. Leave that approach for car salesmen. Physical silver is a market for gentlemen.

    • It likely has as much validity as the infinite number of parabolic lines that can be drawn including the same number of points.

      Which is why I would bet it’s likely to be a broken trend in the coming month.

      I hope I’m wrong and that this is wrong or even slightly understated, or that the run overshoots the alleged target.

      It is interesting that the target for this as I see it is similar to where Alf Field said silver was going (closer to $160 than to $200). But we’ll see. Again, hopefully I’m wrong.

    • you just have broken records making prognostications on fundamental and technical data that in many cases is as relevant as my dog’s bowel movements because the actual government is complicit in holding them hostage.
      Like I keep saying, this is like calling for the end of the world.. You can only be right once, so pick your timing right because you look foolish until it comes to pass.

  1. LMAO Just Stack the Smack, the next big resistance point is $35.25 and when it goes over that then you can sit back and relax and enjoy. LMAO  And yes the predictions are starting to get out off site now but if it gets there sooner they can tell you, “See I Told You So” Lol I’m Long Term and Stack For Survival. Keep Stacking

    • I wish I felt you were spot on.
      However, the gun that shot down silver April/May 2011 has just been reloaded. Margin requirement for silver futures training have been lowered. When the upmove comes, the gun will shoot the margins up and bankrupt some longs. 
      Unless this is the end game where the German lastnames elite is finallyy as long as they meant to be, and China is in agreement.

    • Skates, I am sure we all could wish that Marchas45 was on target, but he/she is like every other predictor of the future—-just another shot in the dark…, an optimistic guess. When silver drops below $25/oz there will be several here who will be whinning because they invested their lunch money in a get rich quick scheme. Silver, however is not a scheme! It is real currency. I am waiting to get my next monster box, but not at these prices. Most just do not have a clue concerning the power they are up against. This power has been controlling world events for several hundred years. A $5 drop in silver is just a drop in the bucket for them. No pun intended.

    • Doesn’t take nerve Skates, just patience. The price of silver is going nowhere any time soon. There is a time frame to get silver at a bargain and we are years away from silver rising to the levels many are touting.    

  2. Silver’s Parabolic Up-trend Channel Suggests”  
    Was that a typo?  I think we are silver is currently in an ‘Un-trend Channel,’ judging by its performance over the past twenty months or so.
    Yes, I am long Silver and will hold onto my stacks.  However, from many of the frustrated-sounding comments that I am seeing these days, it appears that some Silver die-hards are nearing the point of capitulation.  And seeing how the manipulation continuing indefinately I am rethinking my strategy of continuing to accumulate Silver. 

    • Truer words have never been spoken. I have dutifully poured every spare dollar I’ve had (and have NOT had) for the last 2 years to buy silver. I’ve told everyone who I thought wouldn’t think I was crazier than they aready think I am to stack.
      Now 2 years later, in no small part because of constant exuberant cheerleading, I am as confident that silver at some point will outperform, but am just growing fu**ing sick and tired of seeing it get tuned in the face of what should be positive technicals and fundamentals.
      I will probably buy 5 maples a month.. more to register my disgust with the system and extinguish some dollars. MOst of us have done our jobs, we need more low end investors more than we need the “hey I got in at 8 bucks so who cares” folks.
      Also, let’s not forget that there are any number of big swinging dicks out there who could break the silver market in a month.. Yet… they don’t.

    • The biggest Dick is the Fed and they have more Fiat than all the others out there to keep throwing at the PM Market and it doesn’t cost them a red cent just Counterfeit Notes. Eventually it will crash and we will all look back on these past few years and make a joke off it. Keep Stacking, You too Mammoth. Lol

    • the relevant saying is the market can remain irrational for longer than one can remain solvent. Again my worry is that the simple fact that it will take for the entire system to fail before a reset is forced ( they would never do it voluntarily) we’ll be in mad max.. lmao.. buckle up.

    • I’ve been saying for the last few years that the Derivatives Market will be the one that bring chaos to the system and prices will skyrocket. Lol Keep Stacking when you have the Fiat which is becoming harder to come by now, Especially in my line of work. Lol

  3. Whether empty prophecies or exuberant cheer-leading lets face it what else is there to put ones hard earned into? Equities, bonds, real estate? Or maybe just leave it as cash. Apart from PMs, I can think of very few other practical and honest worthwhile assets to choose from.
    As long as the current mess continues don’t think about it too much. What ever you have left after essentials and fun money expenses then stack it. To Hell with the “WHEN” moment.

    • If I had put every extra dime I had in the market starting after the may smash of 2011, instead of silver I would have alot more dry powder to stack with.
      Generally I don’t disagree with you, but the fact clearly bare out that the casino works in the favor of the owners, until it burns down.

      but hey good news.. we’re holding 31 dollars an ounce steadily for the moment..

  4. All I can say is that I had my “A-HA!” moment back in 2006 and I bought into silver heavily at prices from $12-20 only to see it briefly crash to under $10 (although it was impossible to buy any real silver for anything near those prices!)     I remember the frustration and the disgust when my baby was thrown out with the bath water in 2008.   Yet I knew in my heart and in my intellect that silver was FAR more valuable and far more undervalued than 99% of other assets.   Well, now I am in the camp of “I bought silver when it was $x dollars and things are just fine, keep accumulating.
    I also invested a very significant % of my assets into PMs (primarily silver) and was using any spare cash I had to get more at any price  even if it was just a few hundred dollars worth.   THE LESSON IS SIMPLE:  THE BULL MARKET BAILS OUT ALL THE BAD TIMING.   
    Another lesson might be don’t bite off more than you can chew.  I bought silver like a mad man with 100% conviction that never wavered.   Silver is money and it is very undervalued relative to gold, which is itself very undervalued.  Nothing has changed.  Carry on!
    Reports of scrap supply being down 50% from previous years is a sign that almost all the loose gold and silver (people cashing in old rings and earrings, family silverware etc) is SOLD OUT.   This is going to be a problem for the bullion banks who need to cover.   Especially with all the central banks wanting to repatriate their lost/stolen/Corzined/leased out/sold-out gold reserves.   They are going to have to compete to get real gold and Average Joe who can’t pay the mortgage, make the wife happy, send their kids to school, or whatever the case may be, are almost out of supply.    I’m sure most of this loose gold came to market after the price hit the psychological round number of $1000US.   And the Russian and Chinese central banks were more than happy to absorb all of it.   If the USSA govt really cared about its people it would be telling it citizens to purchase some gold/silver, but we all know they are more interested in looting the country by stealing from the poor/middle class in a REVERSE ROBIN HOOD fashion!   

    • “…although it was impossible to buy any real silver for anything near those prices!”
      Yes,it was and there was a VERY good reason for that.  This was one of the very few times in history when the paper and physical prices diverged.  Because of this, anyone who had silver understood that it’s price was artificially low and refused to sell it at that artificial price.
      I tend to think of this as the first crack in the dam of pent up demand for silver as money.  There will probably be some others as history unfolds.  The culmination of this will be when paper prices are set… and ignored because anyone who has money to invest will not trust the thieves who run the futures markets, so will not be willing to risk their money there.  The paper market is far less likely to have a spectacular implosion than they are to simply become irrelevant.  Not that an implosion is impossible, of course.
      “If the USSA govt really cared about its people it would be telling it citizens to purchase some gold/silver, but we all know they are more interested in looting the country by stealing from the poor/middle class in a REVERSE ROBIN HOOD fashion!”
      Since the time that it became clear that the politicians are not in those positions for our benefit but for theirs, we can safely ignore any “caring” that might be ascribed to them.  They care about power!  Getting it, holding it, expanding it, and above all not losing it.  This is the essence of the professional politician ruling class.  This is what they are all about and why the supposed rivals, Dems vs Reps, have FAR more in common with each other than they do with ANY of us.  Yes, I agree that if they gave a flaming [email protected] about the American people they would be telling them to buy some gold and silver as financial insurance against the train wreck that they are busily creating.  OK, so even if they left that last part out, they could still do a service by recommending gold and silver.

  5. Why stop at $200?  If you’re just going to make shit up, why not make it a nice big number like $1000?  Why don’t you find out when the manipulation of the silver price will come to an end.  THIS is when the price will shoot up, and it won’t appear on any chart here in reality or Neverland.  It’s not that I think silver isn’t a good investment or a good way to  preserve wealth, but the price of silver is determined by a banking/government cartel.  Not supply, not demand.

    • Well said. Supply and demand have absolutely nothing to do with price discovery. The price is made up by banking elites selling paper back and forth. I can’t wait for the day when “the physical market completely overwhelms the paper markets.” I’ve been hearing that for well over two years now and it hasn’t happened. I pay no attention to charts because I still for the life of me don’t understand how technical analysis has any benefit in a 100% rigged market. It may benefit day traders in the very short term but how can it help determine a future price when the cartel can set the price anytime they feel like it? Nobody has ever been able to explain that to me. 

    • As a man once said, Ranger, “It ain’t braggin’ if you can do it!”.   😉
      Although I came to this party late, I have tried to make up for lost time.  I am on the same page as Charlie in that I try to ignore all the pro and con BS that surrounds silver and gold price moves.  Personally, I am thinking that owning PMs means that I can quit worrying about the [email protected] prices all the time and just watch the show.   PMs are a solid investment, financial insurance, inflation fighters, and stores of value. What else does one need from their savings / investments?

  6. If the manipulation was strong enough to keep it depressed shouldn’t it have gone farther below where spot currently is?
    If they can’t push it below an unnatural level of support, yet continue to suppress the rocketing rise, then there is time enough to stack responsibly without panic.
    Exchange the paper for metal no matter the price and until they take your ability to stack then you stop working and watch every one around you become parabolic-ally impoverished.
    The winning move is not to play their fiat game. You really don’t have a choice to play or not, so why choose to lose?
    When we the people finally put this fiat game back in the box you’ll shrug and play golf or what ever it is you do.

  7. Edward London  Your comment is right on the mark about bankers and slavery.  The person who owns a slave is enslaved to that slave. If they free that slave, they themselves become free.
     Whether you hold the slave with chains of metal or debt, you are as firmly attached to those chains as the slave. If that was not true, then try and let go and see what happens.
      Bankers have not a moment’s peace once they wrap up their debt slaves in paper, liens, chattels and notes.  They are their debt slaves keepers and until that slave is free from debt, the banker will always be bound and enslaved  to his charges.

    PS As a former debt slave and slave master (banker) removing myself from both positions was a huge sigh of relief. Having a life without counterparty risk is immensely preferable to its counterpart. I do hate to even have FIAT stacked for a ‘just in case’ moment and a bank account earning ZIRP.

  8. It is human nature to check the spot, we all have skin in the game.
    Exciting times are before us, everyone must exercise patience.
    It is not what the price is now, it is what the price will be when everything goes wacky,
    which could be upon us all before we know it.  
    We are all in long; like playing craps, ‘let it ride.’
    In our case, we cannot lose.

  9. What a bunch of Crock of Hog Wash and B.S. NEVER HAPPEN until JP MORGAN and HSBC, Scottia Mocatta, and Bricks stop shorting Silver. I can still get physical for 10% above spot. And HSBC just RECENTLY bought 750+ million USD worth of Silver from Poland. That translates to MORE SILVER SHORTS ON THE WAY, because in order to short Silver, you have rob, steal, or pillage to have physical to back up the shorts, That’s why only miners use to short silver. Multiply that by x 10 to 100 for each paper short for physical and you are talking at least 7 billion worth, or 750 million x 10

    • I suppose the shorting will only end when the phsical buyers are outbuying the inflow of COMEX physical.
      Or, they find their way around COMEX, yet find themselves paying far above spot, in order to not have to deal with months of “supply chain leadtimes” out of COMEX vaults.
      When the physical buyers totally circumvent COMEX, a new exchange will need to be established to allow to keep the paper price down. Shanghai SHMET is already more expensive than COMEX. What’s their policy with shorting?
      Off topic: all the world is into real estate, but where can you actually short real estate? The fund funds that tried, failed. 

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