By SD Contributor Marshall Swing:
Silver COT Report 11/26/12
Commercials added a huge 1,622 longs on the week and increased a massive 5,847 shorts to end the week with 47.24% of all open interest, a large increase of +0.70% in their share since last week, and now stand as a group at 275,930,000 ounces net short, which is an increase of over 21,000,000 net short ounces from the previous week.
Large speculators added a very large 2,123 longs while covering a sizeable 1,428 short contracts increasing their net long position to 189,805,000 ounces, an increase in their net long position of almost 18 million ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators increased a massive disproportionate 1,773 longs and covered a significant 1,099 short contracts for a net long position of 86,125,000 ounces an increase of well over 3,000,000 ounces net long from the prior week.
It was an all around buying week once again with sellers nowhere to be seen. Categories, across the board, were positive, except for a significant short covering by the large speculators. Total open interest was up huge once again gaining an additional 5,768 contracts.
The share of commercial open interest is now at 47.24% a level not seen since May of this year.
Also very telling is the swap dealers who shed -1,426 longs. I believe they know a short covering raid is in the cards and they are taking profits before it occurs. The producer merchant is now motionless in the long category for 2 weeks in a row and have not bought significant longs since early August just before silver price went to the moon.
Notice that the swap dealer spreading category is up 3,000 contracts this week while the large speculator spreading category barely moved.
This is the lull before the storm.
In stark contrast to their counterpart silver movements, we see the small gold speculators running from open interest positions. They had gorged on shorts in previous weeks but price rose much to their dismay and now they see the handwriting on the wall that the upward price movement of silver and gold is at an end and they beat the large speculators to the punch by cashing in 1,425 longs for a tidy profit. It is interesting to see this movement in the gold small specs as contrasted with the movements by the silver small specs. It is obvious they are mostly different players whereas when you evaluate the large speculators and commercials those positions tend to follow more similar patterns because they are the same players, for the most part.
Another giveaway that a short covering raid is coming is the swap dealers and the producer merchants added about the same number of short positions this week with each taking over 5,200 contracts. Last week showed the producer merchant adding over 16,000 positions so their 2 week total is now over 23,200 shorts taken.
As always, for your convenience, if you would like to contact the CFTC and express your views on the commercial trader’s unfair dominant short position, I have provided you their phone numbers and I hope earnestly that you fill up their phone lines: http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/
[email protected] Chairman Gensler
[email protected] Commissioner Chilton
[email protected] Commissioner Sommers
[email protected] Commissioner O’Malia
[email protected] Commissioner Wetjen
[email protected] Director Meister
My apologies to all for the lateness of the report as the CME did not release numbers until yesterday afternoon due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
See you next week!