falling-bearThe man Jim Sinclair has called a master of marking timing has come out with a shocking prediction- Dow 32,000 by 2015!

Armstrong’s full interview and the reasons behind his stunning prediction are below:

buff sale(1)
From the Financial Survival Network:

Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! His reasons are quite simple. The rest of the world is crumbling, even China. As a result, the money is flowing to the US. Where’s it going? Treasuries and the Stock Market. Sound counter-intuitive? Maybe so, but Martin makes a very persuasive case. Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015. Listen carefully to this interview. And watch out for your government, they’ve got the knives out for you and your wealth. Private pensions won’t be private for long.

Click Here to Listen

  1. Come on Martin. You are contradict to yourself.
    Their pension is in stock. And it will double in 2015. What’s the problem. Those cops will reitred filthy rich just like wall street bankers.
    Am I missing something?

    What will it worth if the worthless dboubled. LOL If this does not remind you zimbabuwee dollar. Nothing will.


    • Many months back he said we are not going to have hyperinflation because we have a bond market. LOL how is that bond market doing today. I guess very well if you ask mr martin. Now we are nothing going to have hyperinflation because we have a stock market. hahaha. Remember I said it first.

  3. This is freaking insane. Belief that commandeering 17 stinking trillion in pensions will be sufficient to keep the banknote scheme and equities and bond markets alive … is NOT ‘masterful’ THINKING. It may fit a stupid cycle chart … 99% of which reflects history of SPECIE monetary oscillations … but it IGNORES that the reality of the current banknote scheme is a COMPLETELY UNIQUE PARADIGM, thus not responsive to historically dependable influences.

    Circling back to the 17 trillion … that doesn’t cover one percent of the QUADRILLION PLUS in derivative hypothecation on the nominal markets! Meaning the equity markets MUST be sacrificed in addition … JUST … to save the bond complex!

    What price freedom, Martin? Your very soul, I venture to guess!.

    • UglyDog

      That’s what I think, yes. In a way, I’m sympathetic with what he did. I half pity him, but I won’t shy from criticizing the idiotic positions he’s been forced to propagandize to ‘play along’ with his ‘handlers’.

    • His negative views on gold lately have me thinking the same thing Pat. He never talked that when he was in prison.
      Dow 32K? Seriously? That’s much worse than anything Sinclair or any other PM guru has ever said. The stock market is already in bubble territory. Utter hogwash.

    • What good is buying US Stocks when the Trade Deals that prop up US multi-nationals are all being switched up for new Eastern Sphere arrangements. US multi-nationals are only profitable and competitive because of the raw materials producers they have been exploiting and these countries are shunting USD diplomacy RIGHT NOW.
      Point case is Apple. China are basically sending them signals to get the hell out of China town, this is what all of the Apple $102 BILLION repatriation is all about. WHY would Apple keep $102 billion in USDs overseas in the Euro-Dollar shadow banking sector and not have repatriated it sooner? because it is the WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. Why do they want to repatriate it? Because it is dying as the world reserve currency and because China is telling them virtually to pack their bags and go find their slave labor somewhere else. When Apple started whinging in China about Intellectual Property Rights the Chinese started telling them to shut their mouths. It was pure arrogance on Apples part, a US multi-national acting as if it could corner a technology field and doing it right on Chinas own turf… It’s not just Apple, it’s many US and Anglo multi-nationals. As soon as Hong Kong was turned over to China the Chinese closed all of the market doors to HSBC and forced them to move their HQ back to where they came from; London.
      By all means allow Stupid Fools to buy US Stocks and add to the QE and overseas USD Sequestration building up to bloat US ‘Asset’ Prices like useless junk hulks. What is happening with the stock market is a SYMPTOM of a much larger problem overseas … the tide has changed on US ability to lead finance, and all of the raw-materials producing countries are using the opportunity to break away from USD dominated IMF hegemony … BIG PICTURE RULES!
      US Stock Market = Bloated Fiat Fiasco
      US Bond Market = Bloated Fiat Fiasco
      US Commodities Market = Real Markets buried in more Bloated Fiat Fiasco
      US Housing and Equities Markets = Bloated and Priced Out for a large percentage of buyers/workers who need homes.
      US Derivatives Market = By definition 100% Fiat, or more Fiat than even Fiat…on, and on, and on…
      I just chucked a big dump that looks more like a Market than anything in New York or London. Maybe I can create a derivative on that and sell it into the ‘Market’, get Moodys to stamp it AAA and sell it to Greece?
      Oh yeah and did I mention. “THERE’S NO INFLATION!” ….. bwah ha ha ha! MSM are all comedians. KLUMAC needs a new act, this ones getting old already, maybe he can make Chris Rock his Treasury Secretary so that the ‘Finance’ spokesman at least can pull a few smiles. The US does not need China and Russia to finish it off, it is doing a great job by itself.

    • Oh, it still has a measurable value… microcurrency! 
      If GOLD was not manipulated, and at $2000/oz, 
      we would then be at the current value of one U$D = 1 cent 

  4. A decent interview and he might be right, who really knows.  
    I do think he brings up a good point about the dollar and the US being the best of the worst, this is a GLOBAL economy, too many just focus on the Fed and US policy.
    If wish he did talk a little more about PM’s, a move in 2016-17 is a long time away.

    • Well seeing how Obama just put the last nail in Americas coffin by not going to g20 meeting oh obam is going but not seeing the main boss because that guy tattle taled on us and we don’t like him and you(putin)won’t let us beat him up…..when their new currency (system) gets in to full swing nobody will be in usa dollars ,,,, nobody… Just look at the news last week how chinas economy is crashing with 10% growth and only 13% retail sales lmao only, at this point all they got is talk and they sound stupid

  5. Companies that produce marketable goods will always have some value, right?  The goods are in demand from consumers, so they aren’t worthless.  If you want to buy a share in that company, it will be priced in dollars.
    If the dollar is sufficiently debased, that ‘dollar price’ will indeed rise quickly.  I think this is actually why the ‘stocks’ are rising these days.  Also, a lot of hot money is sloshing around and it goes where it will.
    The PM raids and all the bad press are attempting to fence them off from those sloshing tsunamis of QEzing.
    However, the idea that the propaganda will hold PMs down for two more years doesn’t seem right.  PMs can take off at any time and probably will.  The bankers’ mouthpieces aren’t all that effective anymore.  The independent thinkers aren’t listening to them, and their numbers are growing thanks to sites like SD and ZH.
    When the gold runs out, it can’t be propagandized back into existence.  Then we win.  Same as ever it was.

    • “When the gold runs out, it can’t be propagandized back into existence.”
      No, it can’t.  But they WILL try!  And they will use all manner of paper hocus pocus in their attempts to do so.

    • @Conax
      The real issue is that US muli-nationals are dependent on favorable raw-materials trade deals … and also cheap labor. They are losing all of these things right now at a quickening pace. Checkout my comment above. These companies are losing their competitive advantage and  the only reason they are able to announce ‘profits’ is that they index their returns on Consumer Price Inflation and not overall monetary inflation or a better measure. This is why the stock market is bloating. It is by definition Inflation, but of course there are many measures of ‘inflation’, and when you have the world reserve currency domestic inflation measures are only relevant all the whilst the overseas scenario is static or pulling more USD’s out of the domestic markets. They are not anymore, the USDs are all coming home as claims, which is why the Fed is on a QE feast to fund the Federal Laviathan and the Wall Street Casino …. It’s all over for this Western Charade … it is simply a joke and overseas investors are well aware of it, I just reccon there are too many Americans who are in denial or completely closed in a domestic market box about the size of a strawberry punnet.

  6. Ha! Ha!  All he does these days is talk down gold and talk up the stock market.  It seems his tune on gold changed dramatically after being released from the Big House which has raised some questions.
    If you read his earlier writings and predictions they were wrong just like the rest of the crowd.  If he’s correct this time, who knows?!  But I wouldn’t bank on any of his freely distributed predictions.

  7. Armstrong is totally full of Homogenized Horseshit China is doing well regardless, Ask yourself why more and more countries are straying away from the dollar for trading. No foreign countries are touching our treasuries, but using them for payment.
    Until employment really rises in this country and U S production steps up, where in Hell do you think profits will come from to generate the stock market higher that what it is now? Getting rid of Fannie May and Freddy Mac will do nothing to help the economy, just put the burden on private debt and there is no difference as to who is on the tab for the debt. You and me! Wall street banks are finally under scrutiny for possible fraud, but the fact still remains that the U S is still the world’s largest debtor nation and forewith the dollar has not only lost value it is continuing to lose value daily.

  8. It has been said by many that we are going to witness the greatest generational transfer of wealth the world has ever seen when the current generation begins to expire, passing on their accumulated wealth to their children. This is all said to be due to the fact that the soon to be retirees have about 17 trillion dollars collectively in their savings, 401k plans,  and pensions. This 17 trillion dollars however, does not represent how much wealth these retirees have. No, it represents how much of their wealth was stolen. There is no wealth to transfer. The following illustrates this by expressing it in fundamental terms.
    Consider we have two entities. One entity one produces more than it consumes. Entity two consumes more than it produces. The only way entity two can do this is by consuming the excess production of entity one. But how does entity two take the excess production from entity one? Force could be used, but this would lead to open rebellion of entity one, so entity two relies on a third party to intervene to steal entity one’s excess production, without entity one even being aware it was robbed! Lets call this third party the “government”. The government facilitates this by printing an IOU that it declares has the same value as real production of consumables. The government simply gives this currency to entity two. Entity two takes this IOU and trades it with entity one for it’s excess production and immediately consumes it. Entity one is willing to do this, because it believes the IOU has the same value as it’s excess production. Entity one believes this is a safe way  to store excess production so at a time in the future, it can stop producing and sustain itself by beginning to consume that which it has stored up. This goes on for a time until entity one reaches a point whereby it can no longer produce, and starts asking for it’s excess production back by redeeming the accumulated IOUs. But the truth is, there is no excess production left for entity one! Entity one’s excess production has already been consumed by entity two. There is no produce left for entity one to trade back his IOUs for. Entity one has lost all his excess production and has nothing but worthless IOUs. Entity one, having nothing to survive with, expires. The government, in order to hide what it has done, then takes back the IOUs from entity one.
    The pig in the python baby boomers have all been working hard for the most part, producing more wealth than they consumed.  The government has printed federal reserve notes, and distributed them to non-producers, who in turn used it to buy real excess wealth and goods from the producers.  The producers took this wealth, now in the form of Federal Reserve notes (IOUs), and piled it into 401k type retirement accounts. This in turn was plowed into the equity and bond markets, helping to push them higher and higher.  Now that these baby boomers are hitting retirement age, the constant influx of (false) excess production is going to turn into a constant outflow of stored production demand. But the stored value of the production is not there, because the fiat money (FRNs) put in did not have any value to begin with.The real value was consumed a long time ago. Nothing is left but a stack of IOUs in the form of equity valuations.  That is why the P/E of so many companies is so ridiculously out of whack. If these boomers start to draw ‘money’ out of their retirement accounts, both money velocity and money supply in the economy would start to increase. Equity markets would develop a strong downward pressure on prices, which most likely trigger a massive rush to the door and it’s consequences. Just how much QE would it take to counter the effects of this money being pulled out of the markets to keep it from collapsing?   This is why the government must, must, come in and take the IOUs it printed and given out over time from the baby boomers, before they start drawing it out themselves. The government will have to replace the accessible ‘money’ in the retirement accounts with treasuries, and limit the rate of withdrawal to only facilitate a minimal retiree existence. In turn, it must reinvest the proceeds of treasury issue back into the equity market to keep it propped up.  And when a retiree dies with money left over, no big lump sum to junior. That would again flood the economy with the worthless IOUs.  The death tax is going to have to approach 100% to prevent this.  If it doesn’t, massive inflation, or even hyperinflation will occur. The government cannot and will not allow the greatest generational transfer of wealth to occur.  The baby boomer retirees will never get their retirement savings, because it is gone already.

    • Great Comment.
      Unearned Income in USA per capita = X minus 1thousanth divided by 1% of population
      Earned Income in USA per capita = X divided by 1000 divided by 99% of population
      Summary: Robbed, Raped and the empty shell tossed to the dogs.
      MSM says “The recovery is going fine!!! Gold is a barbarous relic. No need to panic” … whilst their bosses hoard Gold and get their plane tickets ready.

  9. Martin is wrong.

    There is a revolution going on, within and without the US. The world wants to dump the Dollar. Obama ended (revolted) what little was left of Constitutional United States.

    Its that simple. No need for a lengthy post. 

  10. Don’t blame anyone for making lengthy posts. A lot of the posters here do write long dissertations, but it’s an open valve to vent frustrations with the corrupt government and the bankers who rule it all. Nobody wants to be in The Dark Ages again like after Rome fell there was 500years of it.

    • Yes, a long post is a way for some of us to vent our frustrations but it is also a way for us to share our knowledge and experience with others.  They can choose to read our posts or not as best suits their level of understanding, interest, and time available.  By posting a complete expression of our ideas, we can resolve many questions that would otherwise come up.
      As to Dow 32,000 in 2015… HAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!  Nope, sorry, not gonna happen unless the US dollar is devalued by 50%.  As a stock investor and a follower of the US Stock market for 36 years, I do not see anything other than  a currency devaluation that would double this market.  That would take some serious growth and we are not getting that.  If the economic numbers were honestly collected and distributed instead of being manipulated and pulled out of thin air, like US dollars, we would see that the US economy is not growing at all.  It is in fact shrinking.  TPTB are aware of this fact but also know that they cannot admit it without a genuine sheeple stampede on their hands.  They do not want to deal with that, so do all that they can to ensure that it does not happen.  Their pet monkeys in the media will continue to fill the empty heads out there with all manner of utter nonsense, rather than facts, and there’s always the nincompoop-vision (TV) shows out there to serve as the modern day equivalent of Roman circuses.
      I fully expect a 40-50% pull-back in the US stock market sometime in 2014-15.  This seems an inflection point in US stock market history.  This is not to say that such a retrenchment is guaranteed because it is not.  But the odds seem to favor it.  If we can get through 2015 without this happening, then we might very well avoid it for many years.  Avoidance would be good but the odds of that happening do not seem good to me.
      Because of all this, it would behoove all of us to be very careful with money during the next 28 months.  Having a nice stack of preps that can be used during hard times seems a VERY wise precaution, indeed.  The next 4-5 months may well be critical prep time.  Make good use of it.

    • I may make an occasional medium length post,
      but I’m not gonna waste all my steam just ranting
      and getting it outta my system! I suggest we all save
      some for the coming attraction, the final act, whatever it may be…
      As most are already doing  😉

    • @undeRGRound
      >>>I suggest we all save some for the coming attraction, the final act, whatever it may be… As most are already doing  😉
      Won’t be any time for typing when the SHTF … when the local Server cannot pay their power bills there wont be much point! LOL. When IT happens, it will be all on for young and old, the Feds will take over, and then the real games will begin. I don’t plan on being online talking about Au+Ag when that happens … I’ll be on the road so to speak …. or off the road as the case may be :]

  11. Ken S  I like your explanation   In the many past posts where I described how the present $19 trillion in private 401K and IRAs will be forced into the GRA (Graduated Retirement Annuities) to fund the federal deficits; the spending financed by the funds wil pissed down the drain in present day expenditures. 
    The GRAs are just another form of UST notes with a different spit polish and a guaranteed rate of maybe 2.7 to 3%. You can put whipped cream on a road apple but it tastes the same. Like caca. 
    These funds income will be dribbled out to the retirees at a set rate, but never will the retirees get to cash the GRA in. It is now the government’s money. While the retirees watched the value of the GRAs go dorn and down as rates go up and up, reducing the face value of the bonds. 
    Once the retiree dies the heirs get ONE HALF of the remaining principal. Thus that 100% expropriation of the heir’s wealth will be completed as the remaining funds will be taxed at 50%.  The bonds tank in value, benefiting the UST, the government keeps half of the retirement funds and the inheritance taxes take half of the rest.
    The $1.7 billion in the Federal employee Thrift Savings Plan has been used by the government to fund the deficit and put off the needed increase of the debt ceiling. The Federal employees will soon be finding out their pension plans are defunct, bankrupt and filled with post it notes. The irony of ironies is that much of these thrift savings plans are designated for veterans. Here are the vets, fighting in foreign wars to preserve our FIAT debt paradigm and the petro dollar complex and their pension plans are being stolen to pay their salaries.
    My IRAs are invested in gold and silver, managed by me and held by you know who.

    • @AGXIIK IMO, The hole that all the hot money will collect now in is the stock market. It means that people now trust big business more than the Govt as nobody wants Bonds anymore or has a hole in their head if they do. A larger stock market has nothing to do with an increase of profitability in these companies and is a major problem if it is all pumped in quicker than the underlying fundamentals of the US business sector are improving (Detroit is a nice example). It’s the definition of a Bubble, but the difference here I can see is that there is no alternative exit out of Stocks as it is only ending up in stocks as there is nowhere else to go… the game’s up.
      Even if US companies decide to start investing in Capital Expenditure on US soil to get their production bases back they will still have to find markets overseas, and these markets are closing out on US goods now because they need to sell their own as the world trade is shrinking. The real issue of course is the perception of US firms and US Markets which are all clearly manipulated and cornered by big parasite banks that are openly out of control, so no overseas creditors want to touch any US debt or deal in USDs all the whilst they don’t have to, and they will avoid NY and London like the plague. All the hot money that is ending up in stocks is repatriated dollars from the Euro-Dollar market etc…
      Armstrong may well be right about the stock market doubling in a few years, but of course WHY would that be a good thing? It doubled right before the Dot Com bubble burst and then everybody woke up to find that the ‘growth’ was full of horse crap. Earnings have to increase at the same pace as Price IMO for it to be considered sustainable. This is just the start of Domestic InflationS plural (CPI and Asset bubbles that will actually do havoc with the economy … just more instability). As for his comments about the US being the better of the worst economies, I hardly think this is true when it is the USD that is being dumped right now as the WRC. Emerging economies will boost from this change alone)

  12. It stands to figure that SD would come out with the Martin Armstrong piece within hours of it being pointed out that Armstrong has consistently beaten the “gold guru” street in predicting market movements of the metals… for well over a year. And it’s doubly predictable that the method of assuaging the wounded pride of the polity here would be to dismiss him as a ‘turned’ agent of the man. A suspicion which I was actually one of the first to give voice to, elsewhere, when in my more uncritical-thinking goldbug days, I was dismayed by his departure from the herd. It’s an assertion probably true, in fact, but a distraction to the main import of his work and the implications to be drawn from it. Everybody works for the same boss these days. Everybody. It’s your failure to get that that may be the ‘figuratively speaking’ death of you.

    It is the second day of Bayram* where I live. Everyone’s off with family enjoying the end of fasting, leaving me contentedly in charge of the livestock and chores – the feeling of peace is pervasive. My favorite time to think and savor the wonder of being alive. With the benefit of having contemplated my two-week trial subscription period here, I can say with confidence that what I have written above with be lost upon better than 80% of the viewership, who will either stop reading, get enormously worked up, or complete an entirely fabricated cycle of thought about what I am saying, and why I am saying it, without any need to actually check in on what I write. Likewise, nobody really wants to look carefully into what Armstrong’s full position is – only what color jacket he is wearing! C’est la vie!

    Whilst still very much a “gold\silver bug|” by any meaningful definition of the term, I have profited from the experience of posting at SD’s in learning that I have no home amongst the buffalo herd, and have come to recognize that ‘we’ lone wolves of the community are in fact a ‘rogue faction’ which refuses to accept the platitudes of the Austrian hegemony over goldenholders, nor sip from the same bitter cup of endless repetitive rationalizations which the majority uses to drown the sorrows of repeated kicks to the goolies by the ‘real world’.

    OF COURSE it is necessary to bracket any use of the term ‘real world’ with quotation marks, because there is a subtle but very real distinction to be made between our increasingly fabricated ‘reality paradigm’ and any putative ‘real world’ that might still exist in time or space. In fact, the battle between ‘consensus goldbugs’ and the fiat-pushers is a battle to define ‘reality’ – nothing more. And the more ‘consensus goldbuggery’ pushes back against the fiat fools with an alternate ‘reality’ of their own, the more lost they become to a)looking after their own interests, and b) being able to think\act freely instead of merely reacting to the opponents’ plays.

    Whether one chooses to explain this in terms of game theory, or use a typical socio-political description such as ‘dialectical distraction,’ the song remains the same. Consensus goldbugs will sing sweet and reassuring lullabies to each other, and save their greatest stores of invective for those who invade their refuge with disturbing reminders of the outside world. “You’re not one of us!” will be the take home message for any so bold as to enter their magic kingdom… GO AWAY! The complete absence of any resistance to the absurd proposition I recently witnessed here, that a person should leave because they do not pander to the prevailing prejudices of the readership served as the tell to me. (I had entered these portals with alluring images of reasoned debate, dedicated to discovering the puzzle pieces so necessary of being put together for survival purposes, and gradually had to cede to myself the truth that this had been but one more mirage of an oasis in the desert of the Austrian-style orthodoxy which rides close herd over it’s cattle\buffalo\sheeps\take your pick!)

    Going away is not a problem. The EROI on returning the vollies from the various species of wingnut poseurs and hangers-on is too low to be sustainable of interest. But there are assuredly some sheltering here who, like I was not so long ago, unaware of who and what has hijacked their wise decision to invest in precious metals, and that intends to use their enthusiasm for truth and probity against them. For them I have a natural fellow-feeling, and the duty to give good counsel fore departing, so as to feel no pangs of conscience later.

    To that end, and as is my wont, to leave on a high note, it is a happy coincidence of the kind life constantly provides us, that just yesterday I discovered on the pages of the newsdoctors.com portal a repost of a misesinstitute entry which is tailored-fit in every way to provide me a platform to follow up on the truncated discussion between myself and mr Wombat, to answer at appropriate length a question from a fellow commentator[which, if it hadn’t been posed in a form similar to the modus of the species of ankle-biting gnat which assails our farm at this time of year, making life a misery for the livestock and myself, I would have had the pleasure of responding to long before], and serve as a memento of my stay here. It would also be an appropriate place to follow up on my thoughts as mentioned her on Armstrong, the construction of ‘reality’ narratives, and some of the important ideas brought up in A Fekete’s “Whither Gold” as relating to all of these themes. I propose therefore, to submit a response article to the “henry hazlitt” piece, as a token of my gratitude for the profit of my stay, and like unto what I learned to do as a youth on lakeland journeys… always leave more firewood for the next guy than one burned… you never know when a fellow traveller may run into a rainy patch, and be in need of speedy warmth and sustenance!

    Just to be clear, no I am not proposing further debate, and no, I will not be monitoring reponses to this comment. The window of opportunity for reasoned debate of the misguided fallacies of Austrianism -as applied to gold\silver- stayed open for as long as could be expected. All that was received was either silence,(as on the part of the site’s chief ideologue and defender of the faith to my stated points), or cheap subterfugal substitutes of the kind that long experience has guided me to regard with exactly the contempt they deserve.

    Would I been surprised if this invitation for a kind of thumbs up parting with mutual respect and solidarity be disallowed? No, not at all; for it is with sad recognition of the anecdotal evidence, that I can say that the greater likelihood of what happens when the “consensus goldbug” potentate is confronted with a challenge that their usual smokescreen of jargon fails to clear off, is to jettison the debater altogether. Such was the pathetic response of DannyBoy(aka Ivandjiiski the Terrible 11)over at the misnamed “Fight Club” when I deconstructed his absurd uber-perma China bear blather one too many times… rather than present an argument to counter my own, tinytyler simply fled the ring and hit his ‘lethal ejection’ button! TKO.

    Austrian style economics fightclub… Big hat, no cattle.

    Speaking of cattle, I believe that there are many and greener pastures for the wandering nomad pm bug to look forward to… I’m saddled up n ready to go in search of such. In deference to those whose constant dirge is to bemoan the length of a comment here, I wish to stop now. Hey look at the silver lining if this is too long for yas…after this y’all can go back to sleep for good! If the local potentates of SD see fit to allowing this final surge from the rogue faction pm minority afore we retreat in good order, someone should contact me at the mailbox under the name I used here, and we can set up the deal. In closing, I send a hearty goodbye to all those who have been called to the bar(and coin shoppe!), and wish you all a prosperous future. For those of you truly interested in learning what you needs know to protect yourselves from the machinations of the usual suspects… Willnotbeaslave is da man. Heed his words. Dude is comin from the right place.

    *for the local religious zealots who’s decidedly 2nd hand and self-serving cultural cross-pollination with the Muslim world would not afford them this knowledge, it would be the equivalent of the 2nd day of Christmas. Though I should not suspect that ye be open to learning anything new, the wonders of ‘our Lord’ are beyond all human imagination, are they not!>??

    • Would I been surprised  ….  should read…would I be surprised
      noticed a couple other typos on checking, but the modify thing never worked for me…forget what else needed to be corrected now. C’est la vie… and a la prochaine!

    • @hromano1030
      IMO he had an obsession with @PatFields
      Oh well, I’m not here to psycho-analyze, just here to learn and prepare. 
      hedgey was mildly interesting sometimes. He needs to hang out with FOFOA and those types, apparently. 
      He’d have been fine here, but needed focus. I know I’ll be OK with or without a dose of hedgey! 
      So Long, hedgey! It was fun while it lasted!

    • You might get along with my Shiite Turkish friend who is deeply interested in philosophy, if I knew where you lived, I could maybe set you up for Loukoum and coffee (she’s in Byzantium [sorry, the Christian in me refuses to call it Istanbul] for a while).

      In case curiosity gets the best of you (human nature), I want to address one criticism you raise, and that’s the issue of reality. There is only one reality, but guess who knows it totally? Not you, not me, only God. If you’re a Muslim, you’d agree with that principle.
      So while you go after the PM bugs (I think the jab you threw in by twisting it into “buggery” was unnecessary) for creating a reality bubble, the truth is you can’t know the truth unless you have THE TRUTH as your reference point, from which you can determine lies or truths.
      Jesus said: “I am the way, the TRUTH, and the life, no man cometh unto the Father but by me”. John 14:6.
      Jesus Christ, God’s Son, is the Truth, and all that contradicts the Bible’s rendition of REALITY is a lie (meaning Islam, which denies that Allah has a son [I confess to calling Jesus “Isa Bin Allah” around Arabic-speakers] cannot be truth).
      Whatever corroborates the Bible and what it has to say about TRUTH Himself (THE reference point) is true, unless it is twisted out of context, which is then obviously not corroborating the Truth.
      And for everything else in between, which we as non-Gods (sorry new agers… you are not little gods, and sorry Hindus, there is a “you”, and there is more to “you” than the emptiness of a seed as per the Upanishads) cannot figure out, we must leave up to God in light of the fact that the Father of Lies, Satan the old devil, controls this world system, meaning it is meant to deceive by its very nature.
      So, ok, you reference reality, but if you cannot even settle your own eternal spiritual destiny based on the TRUTH (Jesus the Second Member of the Trinity, God’s Son), then you are as blind to reality can be.
      I John 4:15 … “Whosoever shall confess that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God”
      I John 5:12-13 …. “He that hath the Son hath life; and he that hath not the Son of God hath not life. These things have I written unto you that believe on the name of the Son of God; that ye may know that ye have eternal life, and that ye may believe on the name of the Son of God.”

      Oh, and guess what, John, the beloved apostle, wrote this, not Paul (meaning the Jewish and Islamic arguments that Jesus’ divinity is a pauline invention falls on its head.. just saying).
      So really, reality is centred on, dependent on and inseparable from Jesus Christ the Son of God. Whatever alternative there is to that (such as Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism [pray explain to me how, if the goal of life is to escape suffering through the elimination of desires, why Buddhism’s foremost leader, the Dalai Lama, has such a strong desire to see Tibet liberated from Communist China… quite antithetical] etc) is an alternate reality which is a lie.
      Thus, all that mid-day fasting and early-morning/late-night feasting, that eid al-Fitr fast-breaking in the masjid, it’s all an alternate-reality based exercise in futility which accomplishes nothing. Sorry to be impolite, but with such a “reality”, I cannot in good conscience wish an “eid mubarak”.
      I agree, there needs to be more tolerance for alternate views in dialogue, but in order to lecture others on truth and reality, you’d have to short Islam and go long Jesus Christ the Son of God.

    • Adieu, Hedgey.  I shall miss your comments here.  Like an exquisite dark chocolate dessert they were… smooth, rich, filling, but leaving a bitter-sweet after-taste in their wake.  🙂

  13. WNBAS  That was funny. Apple being told by China to pound sand. I get a picture of a big pig with an apple in its mouth.  Almost more than he can swallow, the pig is choking on this Macintosh.  Spit it out Porky!  We sure could use a few jobs back home crankng out decent products.  I would have no problem whatsoever paying a bit more for US made consumer goods. 
    As for the $109 billion locked up overseas, that is going to be a heck of a problem for Braehorn, the equity fund that manages Apple’s cash. It sits on about $150 billion and operates from a small suite of offices just over the hill in Reno.  Apple’s issues in China must cause the fund managers  sleepless nights.
    With the equity markets little more than digital entries in a main frame somewhere, wouldn’t it be rich irony if Whoo Chee Fat “Finger” poked a key and crashed the market with a short blast of cyber warfare.  With so many markets at one sort of tipping point or the other, even a small company–SAC for example–leveraged to $44 billion–could cause a tsunami that collapses markets far and wide. This would not suprise me at all .  But this time it would be entirely deliberate.  Not that the last few crashes weren’t manufactured.  GS comes to mind.

    • Well if you want to buy American computers and pay more thats great but nobody in the whole world would pay more for your American computer, and that’s the card Asia is holding-game over

    • @AGXIIK @Casper007
      >>>We sure could use a few jobs back home crankng out decent products.  I would have no problem whatsoever paying a bit more for US made consumer goods.
      You guys have hit the nail right on the head! This is the real problem. When the US was strong the Domestic markets used to consume/produce over 90% of the GDP, this is not the case anymore as the US and it’s multi-nationals went Global. The ‘Prices’ in stocks in NY and even London represent this Global footing and not only a domestic footing. Also the Wealth Distribution in the US and the Cost Of Domestic Debt Service (due to debt volumes) have caused a Debt Deflation (Less disposeabe income domestically) so that the US Consumer earns next to nothing compared to decades ago in real terms (Obamas screwing that right up now) ….SO, WHO WOULD PURCHASE U.S WIDGETS? These companies need people to purchase their Widgets in order to run profits, but the plebs are all sqeezed to the limits. Also as Casper said the Asians have the same if not better Tech Intellectuals now, so where would be the US advantage in overseas market competition for Exports in what is already a stagnated/shrinking marketplace?
      What is happening in the Stock Market is the first real sign of a coming BIG hyper inflation in Domestic and Imported consumer goods, and it will come in strong after the current ‘implosion’ of domestic production/growth even thoughthe official statements about there being no ‘inflation’ are clearly BS, it’s much higher and rising not reducing.

    • Offering for general contemplation by everyone on this particular thread (employment-centric), the fact that rapid expansion of work and competitive productivity here in America, was accomplished in an environment when there was the falsely dread, oft-maligned ‘Universal Currency’, being various interchangeable portions of copper, silver and gold. This meant that, for the most part, measures of metal related to measures of staples, pretty much the same everywhere, leveling out costs of living in a fairly smooth fashion (except where avaricious governmental interventions disturbed those ratios ‘for good purposes of income distribution so they could derive ‘esteem’ to themselves’). That’s the nature of ‘commodity money’. It’s supply-demand characteristics mesh into the supply-demand coordinates of every other good-at-market, throughout the entire matrix on local and grand scales.

      By adopting a superior combination of finance and passion for discovering ever-increasing production efficiencies; because America’s base cost-of-living wasn’t really so very disparate from that of other developed countries due to ‘Universal (specie) Currency’, it was possible to trade excess goods at attractive market prices elsewhere … while … importing affordably FROM them or others. Thus the ‘standards-of-living’ trended toward rising EVERYWHERE in tandem with demand for Labor, raising it’s ‘bid’. This contributed to the phenomenon of growing ‘middle-classes’ (God, I HATE that terminology), or generally expansive prosperity in societies. Of course, while manufacture was pre-occupied with marketing luxuries, the Luddite image of ‘sweat-shop’ was featured on every broadside at every street-crossing, but once ‘widgets’ came under the sway of mass-production and volume-profitability, all that dramatically changed and very rapidly so ‘the good life’ spread like wild-fire.

      By apprehending how this complete ‘mechanism’ of rationality operates, revealing commodity ‘specie’ money as a principal ‘cog’ in the works, we best secure a grasp on what direction we MUST set our compass on, to arrive at the destination we so longingly desire to reach. We CAN restore full employment on trade excess AND improve our own lives concurrently with the products of others … IF … we restore that core rationality between money and all our goods once again.

  14. One more thing
    I don’t know what it is about Friday night and the posts but it takes at least 90 minutes to sort through all the posts.  It’s like a full moon. Only with us, it’s a full computer  Anyways, this issue of inflation has been weighing on my mind.  Bad thing, that.
    Over the last 2 weeks I’ve noticed the increase in prices of some particular products–seeds and nuts. 
    I’ll call it the BIRD SEED INDEX.   It’s not subject to hedonic adjustments as much as the BLSBS and Bernanke would like. Birds know when you start feeding them crap.  Not so much for us.  We will eat crap to save a buck or two.But there is some s*** I iwll not eat.

    The price of a 20 lb bag of bird seed went up nearly 70% in the last year or so

    Almonds and walnuts are up about 50% in less than a year.  I’m allergic to salmon so my best source of EFAs are these nuts.

    I mentioned these two commodities since I buy them and when a price increase hits my wallet I get really bent.
    There is a great debate over whether inflation is here or not but when consumer prices rise by 10-25% per year and it hits the pocket book, then inflation is upon us.  If 50 consumer products ramp up by 10-15 and even 20%, then there is no debate.  There is just constant adjustments and balancing acts that are needed to keep cost contained.  Hedonics says you replace steak with hamburger and replace that with Hamburger helper but when you’re down to Alpo and kitty litter, the BS must stop.
    Dieting is a good hedonic strategy but if you end up looking like a poster child for Save the Children, starvation is not an option. 
    As far as I am concerned, the debate over inflation is an intellectual exercise in  bad math over dollars in the street buying less and less. 
    The best we seem to be able to do is muddle through and work out strategies to keep the pantry full.  That is a key factor. Prepping is a good way to front run the cost of commodities since nothing will cost less in the future.  Just a thought on this but making plans to stock up a bit is wise policy. I’m somewhat convinced that just as gold and silver could see price increases that resemble and rhino horn, so could the price of food, given droughts, bee colony collapse, the potential of Pacific ocean radiation problems and corn being used for Ethanol.

    • Lots of prices up on grain products due to drought.  Corn rallied from a low under $4 to a high near $8 and the cash market for corn is still very firm, $1.50 to $2.00 over the cbot price for september corn at almost any spot in North America (similar to thoughts of an auction for PM, grain producers and companies constantly shop their products for the best market. The futures market provides a poor sales value compared to what the market will really pay for physical, in about three months that is going to reverse).  Thankfully this coming crop looks good, but i am reminded of a phrase i learned early in my career, grain prices go up, price of bread stays up, grain prices go down, price of bread stays up.  A bit cynical but not entirely without merit.

    • “Thankfully this coming crop looks good, but i am reminded of a phrase i learned early in my career, grain prices go up, price of bread stays up, grain prices go down, price of bread stays up.  A bit cynical but not entirely without merit.”
      That sounds a lot like the explanation we get on gasoline.  “Well, the price of crude just went up, so we have to follow it up in the gasoline we are selling”.  A few months later, this trend reverses itself and we hear, “Well, the price of crude is falling but our tanks and pipelines are full of the more expensive crude and we’ll have to work that off before we can lower prices”.  WTF?  What happened to those tanks and pipelines being full of cheap crude and needing to be “worked off”?

    • “Over the last 2 weeks I’ve noticed the increase in prices of some particular products–seeds and nuts.  I’ll call it the BIRD SEED INDEX.”
      Would that be the BSI?  It must be named, you know, as it is bound to become BIG in some circles.  🙂
      “There is a great debate over whether inflation is here or not but when consumer prices rise by 10-25% per year and it hits the pocket book, then inflation is upon us.  If 50 consumer products ramp up by 10-15 and even 20%, then there is no debate.”
      I find that this debate about inflation exists largely between those who shop for their needs and those who do not.  Their butler, chauffeur  or house man / woman does it for them and they have no idea what something as mundane as everyday prices really are.
      “Prepping is a good way to front run the cost of commodities since nothing will cost less in the future.”
      Indeed so.  Mrs. B and I have been doing this for a while and have a decent larder stocked up in an unused room in our basement.  This is a good location, as it is cool, dry, and relatively dark down there.  Properly packaged, most foods will last a long time down there.  We always shop the sales, use worthwhile coupons, and pick up extra items for the larder shelves.  You are right that none of this stuff is ever likely to cost less.  With Nalley’s chili at $2.19 a can these days, the 48 cans (4 cases of 12) that we bought during a 10 for $10 sale are looking pretty good now.  Same for several other items we’ve stocked up on when they went on sale.

  15. I know what you mean  Casper, but some overseas manufacturers and domestic firms are finding that the offshore costs are rising to the point that they are starting to onshore their products.  It seems that it would be worthwhile to build products here, produce good paying jobs and thus completing a virtuous and reasonable cycle of good jobs and good products. 
    One thing that really harms the American way of manufacturing is the regulatory burdens and taxes that are levied on the manufacturing firms.  A 40% US corporate rate is hideous and destroys capital in the home of capitalism.  The laws preventing a firm from building a plant, from permits, environmental requirements, labor laws and the politicians with their hands out does incredible damage to the capitalist body. We have met the enemy of capitalism and it is us.  
     I would buy American because its good policy and good for my neighbors who would enjoy a good paying job.   Extend that to millions of people and you have the beginning of a new Industrial revolution. 
    There is a reason why companies offshored. The collapse of the US wage levelsin the last forced the US  companies to produce lower costly goods.  We has seen the average income go backwards by $5,000 in nominal terms (not inflation adjusted) in the last 10 years.  That is sad and forces people to make thechoice of buying cheap overseas junk. It’s a vicious cycle   Less Manufacturing jobs means less income to buy US products, and so on and so on
    There has to be a line in sand or otherwise we will become a nation of dishwashers, bar tenders and maids. When 75-80% of the jobs created in the last couple of years are part time, this continues to shove us down the slippery slope of national penury. 

    • “One thing that really harms the American way of manufacturing is the regulatory burdens and taxes that are levied on the manufacturing firms.  A 40% US corporate rate is hideous and destroys capital in the home of capitalism.  The laws preventing a firm from building a plant, from permits, environmental requirements, labor laws and the politicians with their hands out does incredible damage to the capitalist body.”
      Exactly so, AG.  Not only that but then those who don’t know any better go on rants bitching about those nasty and evil business people who “took our jobs”.  No such thing.  I never met a business person who wanted to move their business off-shore.  Most would not unless their other option was to go broke and be out of business.  Considering the mountain of politically inspired BS that has fallen upon business these days, there is no other option for them but to go elsewhere and leave this business unfriendly environment.

    • It’s a particularly important fact to bear foremost in mind, that every scrap of tax is cumulatively melded into prices at the point of final consumption.

      Taxes may be a temporary inconvenience to deal with, but in time, businesses do not truly pay any taxes, their customers and employees do … all of it. That’s what Leona Helmsly meant when she said that only little people pay taxes and why she was so vehemently excoriated … for ‘letting the cat out of the bag’.

      This is logically true of every bit of cost, or there could be no possibility of ‘profit’. Few see it, but the overwhelming majority of ‘customers’ are intermediate processors of ‘sub-goods’ within the production chain, leading to finished goods placed into the hand of a consumer.

      America’s most valuable facilitative tool in realizing Capitalism was its unparalleled adoption of the Discounted Real Bill Doctrine, which kept the credit needs of intermediate processing from depleting circulating money (capital devoted to consumption). The take-over of the Clearing Mechanism for Real Bills and rapid reversion to the Loan at Interest model, eliminating them even from mere KNOWLEDGE of their existence, was the most serious crime of the bankers.

      Under the Real Bill Doctrine, the discount from their face values in order to convey credit, doesn’t affect circulation until a good’s final consumption, so all circulating money can be entirely focused on consummation of trade, thus maximized with a relatively small total amount of money. By suppression of them, the real-time Interest cost of Loans supplanted in their stead, depletes money from circulation … at every sub-step of processing … the entire way through production … SIGNIFICANTLY magnifying the final COST to be accounted for in the good’s PRICE.

      From 1789 to 1960, America managed the most historically magnificent economic miracle ever witnessed … on a small static quantity of circulating money. Why is it NO ONE seems curious to ask themselves HOW?

    • I hate saying this but, usa is sinking and it’s being exciled by the rest of the world sure you maybe the biggest bully in the playground but if 10 kids get together that bully is toast. The America that once was will never be and gov’t can take all the credit and Hollywood, if you could only see a foreigners face when on America TV you hear America’s chant usa usa usa, what I’m getn at is nobody wants American goods and add Monsanto and gmo to the mix, do what the bush family did and go buy land in Paraguay 

  16. BSI or BLSBS?  The choice is clear to me. 
    WNBAS  Your note about China’s trade balances and our imbalances reminded me of something I read Friday.  The USA trade deficit DROPPED to about $35 billion in July.  More oil exports, less imports (probably from China).  China saw a large monthly blip in exports in July, a change of signficance given their export totals had dropped in months past. So China’s exports went up. Our imports went down.  I expect that a large amount of those exports when to their trade partners. Aussie iron is still flowing at an indeasing rate to China, contrary to the notion that China’s big digs are flagging.
    That dovetails into your statement that the countries that import to the US are probably growing more concerned with more US trade dollars flowing to their shores. I think it was you who said that many countries are really sick of the situation of the US’s heavy handed policies being waged with the cudgel of a FIAT club.
    China in particular since they are choking on dollars. Every extra dollar that flows to their shores is making it increasing diffcult to shed the US FIAT before a major reset. Even using the UST notes as trading chips only goes so far. Trying to buy up the world’s resources with FIAT would be impossible.
      They have cross currency relationships with dozens of countries involving 2/3 of the world’s population and 50% of the world GDP.
    That is a tipping point in my estimation.  That the US is snubbing or being snubbed at the G 20, now the G 19, tells me that the jackassin the WH is a chickenbleep and can’t stand the thought of dealing with Putin, a man who checkmate this dork in the first 5 moves.  
    I can just imagine the pillow talk when the US isn’t in the globalist’s bed room. 
    Putin to Jinping  “What it as good for you as it was for me” 
    “Yes, Tovarish, that was some damn fine Dim Sum”. 

    • @AGXIIK    I concur exactly.
      >>> Every extra dollar that flows to their shores is making it increasing diffcult to shed the US FIAT before a major reset.
      The problem with the artificial monetary inflation that begun in 1913 that the rest of the world slowly absorbed is that the US economy was malformed and got waaay too bogged down with services and lost its goods production base. The USD’s flowing back for claim on US Goods should be a good thing, but the speed at which they return is the deciding factor as to whether this will be a positive ‘correction’ or a Tsunami of debt that floods the domestic market waaay too quickly. Ie, hyper inflation (CPI). Much of it will be sequestered by big multi-nationals and banked in bogus ‘asset’ accumulations (vertical integration and more uneven ‘wealth’ accumulation, that they will try not to liquidate too quickly [perhaps]), but the nincompoot econodicks who ARE talking about it refuse to see that at some point it will also follow through to consumer goods. If it even causes a decrease of domestic produce as it is all being exported then what remains for the domestic market must go up in price, thus this would be ‘inflationary’, but I’m sure Barry Soetoro can find some way to fudge figures to convince MSM-comatose plebs that THE INFLATION IS NOT OCCURRING … Alls the whilst a Ukrainian 1932/33 virtual genocide will be going on.
      Not to worry, Barry can make lots of Soilant-Green from the dead and feed this to the remaining plantation workers, and JP Morgan can make it big on SNAP Rations selling the soilant-green and perhaps introduce a nice chip-implant for their new chattel property … just to keep track of them. NOW, THAT’S CRAZY TALK …. or is it? fiction is sometimes less bizarre than real life lately.

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