Something BIG, UGLY, and NASTY this way comes…
Editor’s Note: With the potential for a GREXIT & a Greek debt default merely hours away, with the potential for global contagion and derivatives collapse in the aftermath, we thought it apropos to revisit Jim Willie’s Most Explosive Call and Hat Trick Letter in recent memory:
In the closing months of 2014, on numerous occasions the position was put forth that as the days of January stacked up, toward the end of the month and going into February, that the global financial structures would show severe strain, widespread disruptions, and possible signs of cracks in breakdown. The forecasts were clearly stated and repeated. Even the present flow of events has been shocking, despite the expectation.
The forecast certainly has proven correct.
The disruptive events and pace of systemic breakdown are surely going to continue. The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar.
Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. The Year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks, set up with Ukraine and the European repeat of Waterloo. A quickening pace of events is highly indicative in two natural types in nature, namely the lead up to a natural earthquake, and the lead up to a human childbirth.
KEY ACCELERANT EVENTS
The forecast about fast acceleration of events into the January month has occurred on schedule. Normally a very big event occurs every several weeks, or every few months. In just the last three weeks ten have taken place of significance. The pace has quickened in an alarming fashion. The Great Quickening has commenced. Something big ugly and nasty this way comes. The events are worth emphasis, since each has enormous implications and fallout.
- Russia jumped off the Petro-Dollar recycle wagon. Their entire oil trade will not be kept in USDollars. Instead, it will be exchanged immediately into Rubles. Expect some to be converted into RMB for their bilateral trade with China. The Russian action is an integral part of the demise of the Petro-Dollar. They react to US-led boycott.
- The Swiss removed the 120 Euro peg to their Franc currency. For over three years their central bank had maintained a hoard of paper mache Euro currencies that accumulated perhaps as much as 800 billion Euros. It became unsustainable. They ran a long USDollar trade with short Gold, which finally will go into reverse. The Langley crew had billions in SWFrancs stuffed in shrink wrapped palettes. They profited handsomely. The Swiss seem to have opened the gates of hell for the Gold market, and might have been slammed with a Gold margin call as leased gold bullion dried up.
- The Greeks have prepared to exit the European Union and to default on debt. Their defiant Syriza party won a mandate, a clear leftist majority. Next comes some severe disruption. They might print money to pay off their external debt, which would be an ironic justice. Expect great repercussions within Greece into Europe, at the same time the Russians are passing a gas pipeline as carrot to Greece. With the pipeline will come valuable fees to the Greek nation. They will leave the European Union, with almost certainty. They will soon export food products to Russia, lifting the economy.
- The Euro Central Bank announced details on their newest QE tampering. They are to pile on the bond and asset purchases, with a clever attempt to avoid it being corrosive unsterilized by means of cooperative gestures with member nations. Regardless of the details, the Germans are harsh critics of the Draghi procedures. The opposition has shaped up between the EuroCB and the Bundesbank. The Jackass is certain that Germany will leave the EU, leave the common Euro, and eventually leave NATO. The objection to the Draghi QE decision will lead to a major crisis in the European Union.
- King Abdullah died and the transition for the royal family begins. He has been replaced by formerly crown prince Salman, who suffers from senile dementia, and will have a terrible time to hold power. The battle for succession has just begun, as rival tribes vie for power, after several decades of being excluded. The events inside Saudi boundaries will increase, turn more violent, and be highly disruptive. Pressure for reform will be fierce and unending.
- Merkel has offered a trade union proposal to Russia, which discards the US-led TTIP trade pact. At the Davos Economic Summit, the German Chancellor actually offered a trade pact with Russia which implicitly rejected the US-led TransAtlantic Trade & Investment Partnership. The ironic part is that Merkel has proposed exactly what Russia & China have been developing for two years, known as the Eurasian Trade Zone. Germany is looking for a way out of the European Union.
- The German watchdog financial cop BaFin found no improper manipulation in the gold market. They mean from the DeutscheBank perspective. This decision is a setback for the camp that opposes corrupt markets in bond values, currency exchange rates, bank accounting. The backlash could come from numerous flanks, all of which seek justice and fair markets. Market rigging seems never to cease as the climax nears. In Germany, two camps are divided. The politicians are dominated by the banker elite, although loud rumblings come from the ministers levels. The industrial captains manage commerce, and wish to avoid profound economic damage. The US alliance is no longer working toward German benefit. The industrial camp will prevail, but with a huge battle and many unknowns to come.
- The Swiss have set up a major RMB trading center in Zurich. An interesting competition is certain to unfold as London, Zurich, and Frankfurt compete for Chinese financial flow in RMB terms. Refer to currency exchange, bond issuance, and direct investment (FDI). While London has the tradition and Zurich has the prestige, the Germans have been hand-picked by the Kremlin and Beijing to serve as the cradle and crucible for European linkage to Asia. The industrial ties to Russia and China extend from Germany, along with huge and growing trade and investment.
- The details for Gazprom pipeline extension through Turkey have been revealed, by way of the Black Sea, with volume stated in the plans. In a brilliant stroke, Gazprom decided abruptly to cut off Ukraine on the pipeline construction. It will not pass through Eastern Europe, where USGovt bribery, threats, and corrupt business plans were taking place to block plans. Instead, the pipeline will pass through Turkey, with announced hub on the Greek border. It is being dubbed Turk Stream. The construction will take at least 18 months. In the meantime, the European nations will have to struggle to find a way to connect to its gas lines, and to avoid wreckage from their errant destructive US alliance.
- The USEconomy had an enormous miss in expected Durable Good orders. The list of job cuts and project cutbacks in the US, Canadian, British, and European Economies was six pages in length for a recent work toward the January Hat Trick Letter. It was refined to a few pages. It is a veritable procession of business failure from failed monetary and economic policy failure. The USEconomy is stuck in a multi-year powerful recession. QE aggravates the economic deterioration. Numerous major name corporations are making utterly huge astonishing job cuts, the most recent being IBM. Big banks and energy related firms dominate in such news.
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Events are flowing extremely rapidly, even at a dizzying pace. It is not remotely possibly to anticipate the next critical event, but one can surely expect something every two to three days recently, something of urgent important with extreme consequence.
In addition to the above events, the US & Canadian shale oil & gas sector is shutting down, without a single event to point to. The shale subprime debt implosion is imminent, already have triggered. The damage will be progressively worse over time.
The 2015 year is off with a very unstable bang, exactly as expected. Notice that none of the above events pertain to the BRICS Alliance.
Their movement will enforce the Global Paradigm Shift to bring about a return of the Gold Standard. Since the US-UK bankers control the financial sector in FOREX currencies and sovereign bonds and banking systems, the East will make steadfast progress in bring back the Gold Standard from the trade ramps. Details to above events, the universal disruption, and the BRICS initiatives are covered in the Hat Trick Letter.
KING DOLLAR PILLAR BREAKDOWN
With the acceleration of events in progress and in view, the pressures will grow against the entire King Dollar Court, the corrupt fortresses in Wall Street and London Centre, the crime syndicate hive. The USDollar will not survive the year. It might not vanish this year, but will surely show its eventual destination in the dustbin of history.
The four legs of the Petro-Dollar might be described as being the banking system, the FOREX currencies, the sovereign bonds, and crude oil.
- a) After the Lehman kill-job crisis failure, the banking system turned insolvent. Thanks to the FASB accounting rules that were bent, the banks have continued as hollow reed pillars. They have been on the one side been settling law suits and investor claims, while on the other side been kept liquid by means of narco money laundering (confirmed by the United Nations). If one big Western bank enters failure, the entire set of big banks will risk failure simultaneously in direct contagion.
- b) The major currencies are in a grand disruption right here right now. The rush into the USD for settling derivatives and as safe haven has rattled the FOREX worse than at any time in recent history, perhaps including the 1995 Asian Meltdown. The emerging market debt involves several $trillion in volume, all of which rose on the balance for the debt burden. Defaults lie directly ahead. The USEconomy will be greatly victimized by the higher USD valuation, with respect to stock and property investments, in addition to export trade.
- c) The sovereign bonds are being supported by Quantitative Easing, the highly corrosive monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Other central banks had been well coordinated at the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. If not direct money printing, it is their usage of Dollar Swap Facilities. In the last couple months, evidence has grown that the major central banks are on their own, acting to preserve their economies, and taking action with local motive. The USGovt raided the Japanese $1.2 trillion pension fund. The Swiss ensured that all nations will break the coordinated monetary policy with the USFed.
- d) The connection between the USDollar and Crude Oil price has been broken, in ways not described or reported in the press. A vast system of FOREX derivatives are being dissolved that connect to the Crude Oil price, resulting on lost control. The rising USD and falling oil price is evidence of the breakdown. The relationship between the USGovt and the Saudis has deteriorated to alarming levels, despite the photo ops on display to deceive. The Saudis have been working on monthly conferences with the Beijing leaders, in what could be called a lovefest for economic cooperation and financial joining at the oil hip. The Saudis and other Gulf Emirate nations will be working to convert their combined $2.2 trillion in sovereign wealth funds into diversified assets, led by Gold. These Arabs will work to replace their Gold bullion stolen in Swiss banks.
USDOLLAR DEATH FORETOLD
The high exchange rates seen to favor the USDollar does not mean it is strong. The global movement in fast clear trend is the wider usage of Chinese RMB. On at least 20 different bilateral conduits, the Chinese trade is almost exclusively done in RMB terms. The Yuan Swap Facility with numerous nations like Australia and New Zealand, lately Switzerland, Germany, and Canada, and several smaller Asian nations assures steadily higher RMB trade settlement. Even US corporations are fast converting USDollars to RMB which assure their import supply lines. The standard of USD trade settlement is going away.
The USDollar is dying like a rocket, shooting upward. Methinks the Petro-Dollar linkages are all broken. As a result, the USD rises, and correspondingly oil falls. Most people attach motive to the price movement. Doing so is erroneously. Instead, the price mechanisms are broken, predominantly a structural effect across most financial markets in an alarming development. The lost control is being manifested in a higher USDX index. It is paradoxically evidence of a dying King Dollar and a failure of its court.
Huge pressures are building. The year 2015 will be when the system openly breaks down, when steadfast US allies break ranks from the King Dollar Court, and work to enable their nations to survive. The year 2015 will be when the entire world (East & West) openly calls for the retirement of the USDollar in order to end the destruction, fraud, madness, war, and chaos. The USFed with its corrosive QE has hastened the major nations of the world to rush toward implementation of the Gold Standard. They must install it from the trade ramps, not the financial ramps. They are in race with time, since their economies are faltering.
Mahatma Gandhi was a sage. He has a famous quote best presented in summary form. “Seven Deadly Sins: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Science without humanity, Knowledge without character, Politics without principle, Commerce without morality, Worship without sacrifice.” Without any hesitation, equivocation, or doubt, all these important sins are growing trends and priorities in modern United States.
London Paul summarized well the current path of disruption and powerful change. “The so-called experts have thrived in a world which was all about obfuscation. As this paradigm collapses, they are desperately trying to hang onto a totally failed construct and refuse to accept the reality of what is coming. The alternative terrifies them to their very core. Greece was a clear indication that the masses are waking up in significant numbers to the insanity of a cabal agenda of death, destruction, and grand larceny all wrapped as being in our best interests. When I have spoken before about a time which will be savage and uncompromising, it was in my opinion a realistic assessment of what is coming. However, when we get through the other side, the world will transform out of recognition and in ways that would seem impossible from our current frame of reference. So we continue to accumulate Gold & Silver to protect ourselves against the financial carnage that is coming. Humanity is going to go through a very sharp learning curve and will have to work together for common goals and aspirations as it should always have been. Necessity is the mother of invention and we will all have to go through that process of total reinvention. The level of ruthless manipulation to divide and conquer humanity for decades and beyond will become clear and it will truly shock humanity.”
GOLD RALLY IN FOREIGN CURRENCY
The gold market is rallying in the Yen terms, in the Euro terms, and in the CanDollar terms. The Swiss have ignited a global gold rally. They very likely covered a short gold position in a complex arbitrage trade. Notice the gold price decline from the $1900/oz level began at about the same time the Swiss announced their Euro 120 peg in late 2011. Notice the gold reversal has begun exactly at the time of the Swiss de-peg decision. It might be easy to conclude that the Swiss National Bank financed their Euro peg by crushing the Gold market. In the three and a half years during their peg, the price of gold lost one third of its value on the corrupt COMEX market. With the Swiss lit fuse, no turning back. The reversals are significant. In Switzerland, the people have been given a hefty gold price discount due to the rising SWFranc currency. The Gold price in USD terms will be the last event, the ultimate event in confirmation.
HUNGARY BOTH SMART & HOT SPOT
The Jackass has no problem admitting an error. They can be valuable learning opportunities. The last big error was made in expecting a higher USTreasury Bond yield in 2011. Big error indeed, as the learning curve featured forced comprehension of the powerful Interest Rate Swap derivatives. With Morgan Stanley putting on $8.5 trillion in IRSwaps in a mere six months time going into end 2010, the USTreasurys rallied with rising price and falling yield. This contrary event occurred despite greater USGovt debt, fewer USTBond investors, and a debt rating downgrade. The paradox is explained with the vast IRSwap machinery. Thanks to Rob Kirby, the Jackass learned more about the derivatives and the fabricated bond demand from computers, managed by JPMorguen. Too bad Bill Gross of PIMCO did not hire Kirby as a consultant.
The latest error is minor, but interesting. The Jackass had stated recently in reports that Poland, Hungary, and other Eastern European nations were all exposed to home mortgages in Swiss Franc denomination. With a rising SWFranc exchange rate, their aggregate mortgage debt balances will be damaged from having risen in amount. They will have a higher debt burden suddenly. The Polish are exposed. However, in a three step process, the Hungarians side stepped the risk in a very clever adept maneuver. The Orban Admin forced the banks to convert all foreign currency denominated property mortgages into Hungarian Forint (HUF) mortgages. Note that the switcharoo took place just a couple of months before the Swiss central bank de-peg. The HUF is not pegged to any currency including the USDollar or Euro. The correction was given by a sharp Hungarian Hat Trick Letter client, who has been valuable not only with respect to matters pertaining to his country like the South Stream Gazprom pipeline project, but also to events in nearby Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban might be at risk. He has fended off the USGovt fascist pressures to block the Gazprom pipeline. He has gone on an independent path. He might be a Langley target. Maybe Budapest will be treated to some public shootings or explosions by yet more lone gunmen, like in Paris following the President Hollande comments in opposition to continued Russian sanctions.
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money.
The crisis is better described as the Global Monetary War. Any nation wishing to establish trade or a monetary system centered upon gold is branded a rogue nation, subject to extreme propaganda. This is precisely why Russia is being vilified, since they want no more USDollar in trade or banking, and lead a global movement to discard the USD as global reserve currency. The solution is with precious metals as the core to banking, trade, and currency, even wealth preservation. The new 2015 year will be exciting. As the Jackass forecasted, 2014 did indeed end much differently from the way it began. The agents of change are working at hyper-speed now. The USDollar is doomed, and its captains are running for their lives. They are not worth bargaining with in magnanimous cut deals. Better to treat them like fire ants and bothersome fleas and diseased rodents and rabid dogs. The return of Gold to its primacy is long overdue.
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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at [email protected]