Looks like the cartel is ready to shift from the short side to the long side in the metals ahead of the incoming tsunami that is the 3rd phase in the massive secular gold and silver bull markets.  One last gold and silver smash for the clients sheople?
Does anyone else find it ironic that Goldman calls the end of the gold bull market due to a strengthening US recovery, on the very same day it is rumored that JPM and Goldman are considering massive layoffs due to terrible economic conditions?

Goldman commodity analyst Damien Courvalin is out with a big call: The top in gold is in.
The firm says that the primary driver of gold prices is real interest rates (which have been super-low in the United States, in part thanks to aggressive Fed easing) and that with the economy coming back, this era is coming to an end.


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Before you get the details of this specific call, you have to understand the firm’s overall view of the economy.

Last Week, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius made a big economic call … that the era of sub-par, post-Financial Crisis growth would come to an end some time in the second half of 2013. And Courvalin, in lowering his gold outlook, is keying off of this call.

Here are the two key paragraphs from the report:

Improving US growth outlook offsets further Fed easing
Our economists forecast that the US economic recovery will slow early in 2013 before reaccelerating in the second half. They also expect additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Near term, the combination of more easing and weaker growth should prove supportive to gold prices. Medium term however, the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in US real rates on better US economic growth. Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving US growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013. Risks to our growth outlook remain elevated however, especially given the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, making calling the peak in gold prices a difficult exercise.

Gold cycle likely to turn in 2013; lowering gold price forecasts
We lower our 3-, 6- and 12-mo gold price forecasts to $1,825/toz, $1,805/toz and $1,800/toz and introduce a $1,750/toz 2014 forecast. While we see potential for higher gold prices in early 2013, we see growing downside risks.

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  1. In other words after all the criminality since 2008 that destroyed the economy put real unemployment @ around 23% forced people to runup credit & debt to survive day by day. It is now time to really put the screws to them and take every damned thing not nailed down!  

  2. Being in business for over 20 years;  working daily with business owners, my ear is tuned to anything prediction-related about business, particularly those who say the economy will improvement next year, dramatically in the later part. 

    In the most recent Golden Jackass letter Jim Willie praises David Einhorn, manager of  Greenlight Capital. Aside from being  a master poker player and a first rate hedge fund operator, he has a good bead on how businesses are doing and the damage being done by Fed Policies. Einhorn sees these policies as a wrecking ball with ‘destructive monetary policy’  of ZIRP coupled with infinite FIAT supply. Its destructive nature  and the damage continues unabated.  Unintended conequences are seriously reduced CAPEX, forced speculation for yield, damage to the Social Security trust fund that is leaching it of its balances, terrible damage to seniors income, business layoffs and growth thus destroyed and misplaced asset allocations on a personal and business basis.
    Willie corrects Einhorn’s assumption of QE since David is still caught up in the ‘conventional wisdom’ paradigm that QE is designed to  help job growth, stimulate  and jumpstart the economy.  David does not know what is really going on.  Willie proposes that QE is being done to avoid a UST Bond default (via large increases in interest rates),   conceal the world wide distain for these toxic bonds, buy up failed mortgage tranches via QEternity and conceal the multi trillion dollar mortgage bond fraud and counterfeit UST bonds  trillions in total)  
    This thievery and deception is not disclosed to conventional thinkers hence their misapplication of notions about why the Fed and Treasury continue such an  course
    All this concealment has terrible consequences, just as a bank robber burns down the bank building to conceal his crime. The damage to the multi story building is vastly greater than the money stolen.
    The damage to the economy, businesses and personal lives is vastly greater than the money printed and stolen.
    The senior officials in the upper regions of the Fed and Treasury mouth the sentiments that they know what is best for us and policies will work.  This is to cover their behinds and save their high prices jobs, elevated positions of power and massive pensions. 

    It is impossible for businesses to save or create jobs in their firms when the government officials are hell bent on promoting and protecting their inflation producing policies, the destruction of the economic infrastucture plus back channel payback to outside forces and influences who have no concern about the well being of this country and its people.
     As an FYI, Obamacare was NOT about providing health coverage. No universal health care system has worked in the last century. When government runs the health care system people die.
    It was ALL about control over the lives of the people and the expected and inherent damage this tax nightmare causes to businesses and the personal cash flow of individuals via dramatically higher taxes. A government heath care system cannot exist side by side with private health care. Private health care must be destroyed to give the government system complete control over people’s lives. We will see this unfold within 4-5 years
      The damage will continue to its inevitable conclusion; a wasteland of small businesses, consolidation of larger businesses with their uncompetitive pricing power and unbearable tax increases imposed on we, the people and a much reduced health care system.
    As an aside, QE and ZIRP  CREATE, they do not ameliorate,   higher prices.  This seems counterintuitive, but since the only way cash-rich companies and individuals can create yield is WITH inflation, it’s clear that ZIRP kills yield, necessitating inflationary price increases.
    If they chose to retain cash instead of wasting it on stock buy backs and large one time dividends they do it by  boosting prices well above the cost of doing business, a characteristic of large business monopolistic practices.  This counterproductive price increase methodology does not help small businesses grow, it cripples them as it helps retain the expected profits and ROI of monopolies, whether they be banks, corporate giants or governmental taxing authorities.  The people get crushed under these boot heels.
    IMO the only way to counter these events is to own decent hard assets including PMs.  How PMs will react in this environment is unknown but I think that for no other reason than with hundreds of billions of dollars chasing yields, these funds will catch up with precious metals just like they have with farm land and farm products.

    • QE makes people’s standard of living go lower and it will devalue the US dollar which will drive all commodities’ prices higher. How can Goldman say that the end of the bull market is near when the Federal Reserve has admitted that QE infinity will happen.

  3. Goldman commodity analyst Damien Courvalin is out with a big call: The top in gold is in.
    –  –  –  –
    Anybody here recall just how many times the National Ass. of Realtors has called the bottom of the housing market?  They have the same credibility as Goldman Sucks, you know.

    Fact – you can NOT call the bottom, or the top of any market until the moment has passed. 

    • Tell me all about it AGXIIK, I’m a Realtor and I’m sick and tired of all the hype on all the  Figures their putting out. I’s a dammed joke and I have to pay fees for all their crap they put out. Hype, Hype, Hype. It’s sickening (don’t Let Me Get Started)

  4. The way I see it TPTB are doing everything they can to accumulate all the gold and silver and use announcements such as this one, along with raids, to flush out the gold and silver being held by people not in their group. Once they have all they think they can get then the currency will collapse and they will return to something that includes gold and silver in the monetary system. People that give in and let them have their stash are the ones being manipulated. As long as I can still buy at these current bargain basement prices it is all good. Once I clear up a few financial issues I hope to buy 30-50 ounces of 90% before the end of the year and would be happy if they pushed silver down some more before then. As a side note, physical is getting harder to buy. I buy my silver at a local pawn shop but watch ebay to determine the overall market condition and it is harder than it has ever been to find anything close to a good deal for silver there. Most of the current ebay listings are people trying to fool others into thinking they are getting something good. I have been buying and selling on ebay (echo bay) since 1997. I don’t even consider buying bullion, except maybe some government or major refinery products. You will not find any Elvis bars or Garfield rounds in my stash.

    • When I get some time, I’ll start hoarding more copper pennies to attain my goal of getting 1000$ in face value copper pennies before the Canadian government removes the penny from circulation. Copper is my first priority, silver is my second priority, gold is my third priority and nickel is my fourth priority right now.

  5. Copy that M45  When TPTB of any group, public or private, are allowed to control the statistics, the MOPE and BS river flows deep and wide.  It’s hard to fish off the dock when all you catch is ‘brown’ trout.

  6. Sorry, there is no way to put this in a polite or professional manner, if you still seriously listen to Goldman Sucks you’re a f**** moron.  Why they have any clientele left is totally beyond me.

    If they are calling tops, I am doubling down on PMs.

  7. So the message between the lines is that interest rates will go higher?!?! I THINK NOT! Interest rates will be in ZIRP-land for perpetuity.  If interest rates go up, the economy will be decimated. The FED has absolutely no plans for that.

  8. IMHO, anyone who thinks that the US economy is in recovery since March of 2009 is either deluded by the MSM BS or is confusing inflation with growth.  Yes, the Dow 30 Industrials went from 6600 or so to its current 13000, but this had far less to do with the growth of a healthy economy than it did with the massive asset price inflation due to $6T or so of freshly printed US dollars.  Off-hand, I cannot think of a single aspect of the US economy that has truly improved in the last 3 years.

    They keep telling us that the recession of 2008 is over but anyone who lives in the real world is painfully aware that this is not the case.  In spite of all the cooked numbers being thrown at us, it is clear that household income is falling while prices are rising.  The things that are rising fastest, such as food and fuel, are not counted in today’s CPI.  Prior to 1994, they were part of the CPI and using that calculation method shows us about 10% inflation in the US now and not the cooked number of 2.5% that the Fed and Gov keep repeating in the hope that the sheeple will soon believe this big lie.

    This is a short squeeze on the American middle class like no other before it.  Even during the 1930s when household incomes collapsed, so did prices.  Anyone who had even a little money back then did OK.  This will repeat shortly only we must remember what “even a little money” means in this context.  Back then, gold and silver were money.  They still are and those who hold them will be able to buy just about anything they need as dollars become so inflated that people will resist taking them in trade for real goods and services.  Keep stacking, brothers and sisters.

    • In my opinion, the 2008 crisis is not over but only delayed for later. The economy’s situation is getting worst as we move on and it’s not getting better. But, everything will soon collapse and it is inevitable.

  9. I hope that there are more smashes on gold and silver’s prices which will allow us to buy more precious metals cheaply, easily and faster. There is no top for gold and silver because the Federal Reserve itself has admitted that QE infinity will happen which will drive the precious metals’ prices to infinity in terms of dollars.

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