EmptyVaultThe COMEX will default in the next week or several weeks and people will be “settled” with Dollars, no more metal will be delivered!  So, knowing that “game over” has arrived, they are dumping a massive volume of  paper contracts with impunity to push the metals prices as low as possible before the “default”.  This way the “shorts” do not have to and will not be “covered” when “supply” cannot be obtained because of “an act of God”.  They will be settled in cash (at a profit no less) because these “unforeseen” disruptions in supply.  “Who could have seen it coming?” will be the mantra.  I would suspect that banking stress and “bail ins” will also become prevalent globally.  The pricing structure” will now push any and all physical sellers away from the markets and the “door” to safety is effectively being shut.  Either you own metal or you don’t.
After the closure of the COMEX and LBMA doors there will be no availability and “price” will be meaningless.  Your ability to protect yourself is right now for all intents and purposes being eliminated.


cover art podcast temp


Submitted By Bill Holter, Miles Franklin Ltd,:

Last week Barrick Resources announced the postponement of their giant Pascua Lama mine.  This was to be one of the worlds largest mines and is now tied up in litigation over true ownership as it appears to show that Barrick does not have clear title.  The probale reserves were nearly 18 million ounces of Gold and almost 700 million ounces of Silver.  Work on this mine was completely ceased last Wednesday.

“Last Wednesday” was also an important day for the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, the ground started to shift more rapidly prior to this weekend’s landslide.  They knew this was coming as they closed the visitor center on April 1st and had all equipment and personel out of harms way.  This mine produces some 400,000 ounces of Gold and over 3 million ounces of Silver as a by product of copper, this is the largest copper mine on the planet.  Have you heard even a peep out of the mainstream media on this on?  I didn’t think so.
Is it not strange that these two events came to a head last Wednesday?  The same day that out of nowhere Gold reversed from being up and give up $40?  And then of course there was Friday with $85 and another $75 this morning.  Gold is now down $200 per ounce in just over 3 trading days.  Between these two projects, one not coming online and the other going off line, a VERY significant amount of production is not going to happen.  Does this make sense?  Did you not learn in school that “less” supply meant higher prices?  In the real world?
We don’t live in “the real world”, we live in a world where everything financial is manipulated.  Here is what I see happening.  They knew that this mine was going to collapse and the production would stop.  Then the ruling on the Pascua Lama mine was sent down.  Last Thursday president Obama met with 15 heads of the biggest banks and brokers in the country, THIS was discussed as sure as the Sun came up this morning: we have hit the bottom of the barrel!  Reserves that could be fed into the market are and have dried up at the same time that production has dropped and future production delayed.  The paper game is blowing up …RIGHT NOW and the topic of discussion at the White House was about “how it would play out”.
The COMEX will default in the next week or several weeks and people will be “settled” with Dollars, no more metal will be delivered!  So, knowing that “game over” has arrived, they are dumping a massive volume of  paper contracts with impunity to push the metals prices as low as possible before the “default”.  This way the “shorts” do not have to and will not be “covered” when “supply” cannot be obtained because of “an act of God”.  They will be settled in cash (at a profit no less) because these “unforeseen” disruptions in supply.  “Who could have seen it coming?” will be the mantra.  I would suspect that banking stress and “bail ins” will also become prevalent globally.  The pricing structure” will now push any and all physical sellers away from the markets and the “door” to safety is effectively being shut.  Either you own metal or you don’t.
I tried to “be nice” in my piece from last night talking to those who worry about price.  What is now happening is exactly what I spoke of, you must count ounces because “availability” is going away right here and right now!  After the closure of the COMEX and LBMA doors there will be no availability and “price” will be meaningless.  Your ability to protect yourself is right now for all intents and purposes being eliminated. 
We received  a few (very few) angry letters from customers who say that Jim Sinclair, Mr. Sprott and Embry, James Turk and others including myself are and were wrong.  That we should hang our heads in shame and that we are nothing more than charlatans hawking Gold and Silver.  We will soon, very soon see just how right or wrong we really are.  What is happening right now is very clear to me, what I don’t understand is how anyone could miss this as it has all been laid out for you and dropped in your e-box to see (for years now), understand and prepare for.  Life, all of life as we knew it is about to change forever.  Hopefully you understood this and have already prepared for it!
Regards,  Bill H.
                                                                             SD Bullion Featured Products:
    • So, let me guess.  The Comex defaults or FM`s (which could stand for Funny Money payouts or something) and the price of spot Ag Au does what?  Stays at $23 ect ?  because there is no trade in the futures market?  It`s just going to bring the whole thing into the spotlight more than is already.  All the phyz vaporises and whats left takes a price hike.  Hmmm… what could possibly go wrong? 

    • Help I have my silver and gold in a bullionvault account they store their gold with the LBMA should I sell up and buy real gold and silver and take delivery. These post really scare me.

    • @Viwinner
      I don’t understand. Why not just arrange for delivery? You SHOULD have done that LONG ago ANYway. If, however, what you ‘own’ is a mere claim, you NEVER had anything more then paper, so you may as well leave things as they are and reclaim your stamp ‘money’ as the quotes re-strengthen.

    • thanks for reply with this MF Global segregated accounts and Cyprus accounts being raided nothing is safe anymore thanks for the replies will sell half of my account and take delivery of half physical bullionvault allows quick buy and sell whilst phyical takes alonger time

    • Listen here, (Chinese) Silver Dollar…  My thoughts on Friday were that they were doing the usual theft of accounts.  But when it turned into the bloodbath, I thought maybe it has more to do with delivery.  Then this expert is saying the same thing I was thinking by the end of trade on Friday.  So I’d say he’s probably right.  April or May delivery is all she wrote.  JPM’s deliverable Gold vault is almost empty.  So just pick up your Silver Banner Flag, and start waving it like the rest of us.
      This site has been really slow the last few days.  I just got a “wordpress error” when I thought my “Post Comment” request didn’t go through, and ended up hitting it twice.  I read all wordpress sites would be targeted by hackers, last week.  Just for your information…

    • Comex TBTF?  An interesting notion… I wonder…  they could bail out all the previous TBTF episodes to date because the bail-outs were accomplished with the use of CnTRL+(P) fiat printing.  But, last time I checked, they are Manipulators, not Alchemists.   Settlement in cash is Manipulation, not Alchemy.  Unless they mobilize the NATO Gold Repo Squads, they can’t exactly bail out a physical exchange.
      That was never their mindset… I remember when Kyle Bass was considering taking a position in Gold, he related to the interviewer that when he want to meet with the Comex folks to ask about what they’d do if they were called on to deliver physical, they told him that would never happen. He persisted, “What if they did?” Their response: “Price solves everything!” Blythe can tell us all about that, can’t she?

      That said, I can’t imagine the PTW letting the market set the price and have the equivalent of a world-televised state funeral for the gold price canary!

    • This would be believable if there was in fact some reason for the drop in the real price of Gold and Silver (Ie, a 1million Tonne cube of already mined 99.9 was discovered in a buried pyramid in the Egyptian Desert), but that news is absent; there’s a whole bunch of fools selling a lot of pretty looking official paper though; I HAVE A BRIDGE IN LONDON I WOULD LIKE TO SELL SOMEONE ALSO, ANY TAKERS?. The problem with a commodity like Silver and Gold dropping to such a level when physical delivery is drying up is that it will cause massive disruption in industries that use Gold and Silver such as electronic goods manufacturers. Any of them that have half a brain would have been stockpiling for years of their production requirements (which isn’t easy to do when liquidity and lending is non existent) and the rest will be in deep poop. Apple had to delay one of its new phones a few months back because it could not get hold of Silver for its battery cell manufacture process.
      Watch for industry issues first and the fact that most electronic goods are made in Asia it will be interesting to see what ASEAN countries will start saying about the COMEX price discovery apocalypse when they simply can’t find the physical they need, or the prices asked are completely disconnected from any official index (Happening right now obviously)
      London and NYC are being exposed right now as a massive monopoly dream land, and this is simply the long awaited moment when people realize that the ‘professionals’ in London and NYC are simply ‘gamers’ living in a virtual world acting like businessmen in the real world.
      The real world (ie, industry) operates on price discovery, and when industry baulks everyone will hear the cries of discontent and it will be felt on the share market anyway. There is no hiding the fact when it comes to a market such as Gold and Silver which crosses the membrane between Physical Requirement for Industry and use as a Financial store of wealth; this Fiat apocalypse was always going to be felt in the Commodity markets first, and the Gold and Silver markets are first up. The whole world is about to learn a hard, hard lesson in what happens when people in suits get gambling addictions that threaten the livelihoods of anyone who produces a real product or service right down to the peon with the plow in the field.

      Many bankers and brokers will only have a value after this as a meat substitute in a European Microwave Ready-Meal … the horses are all in shorter supply, time to look for some more useless meat. The Paper Apocalypse is about to kick off, it all depends how many retards holding physical are stupid enough to get fooled by this ‘price drop’ in the worlds 2 most solid commodities. The more the plebs sell in phyzz, the slower the apocalypse will be, but it only has one ultimate outcome… and this above opinion piece is 100% correct. Paper is about to be separated from Solid Commodities, it’s just a matter of how long it takes for people to realize and own up to the fact that their beloved Westernized Market Economy is DEAD, and reverting back to the real world where people get angry, convicted as criminals, lose their life savings, and go ape at their Governments for allowing gamblers to get better credit than workers at the workers expense. The trick is reverting back to the real world without Martial Law, and that’s obviously a little harder.

  1. God I really like this guy and he sticks to his guns and makes sense. If the Comex does crash, then who or what will dictate the Silver Price? more Manipulation? Please let me know your thoughts on this Bill.

    • @Ranger
      The story, as I understand it, is that apparently the LBMA was headed to zero ability to deliver physical first — this is what necessitated the smash down attempt to wrest metals from the weak, then becoming semi-strong hands.  Comex would have then become the main physical delivery source if LBMA went ‘dry’… did the London daily visitors tour concession of the Vatican Catacombs go bankrupt?  Or maybe the tour train broke down???

      All I can say is that I’d hate to be a holder of GLD or SLV right about now!!!

    • why are we still counting ounces in US Dollars … thought we got thought that process, count ounces vs gallon of gasoline, count onces vs food … true stackers don,t care…… fire sell is on when it come to PHZZ SO let’s sing praise to the “man behind the curtain” who gave us this moment in history

    • It will be a new marketplace/s in place/s not associated with the last marketplace/s that failed and have lost their credibility, ie, anywhere but NYC, Chicago and London.
      The Chinese and Singaporeans will be licking their lips right now waiting for the meal to be served. In the meantime Industry, Jewellers, Mints and many other important sectors will be in a no mans land looking for a solution to arise, somewhere, anywhere ….. there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

  2. Bill, Great post!
    Re: “So, knowing that “game over” has arrived, they are dumping a massive volume of  paper contracts with impunity to push the metals prices as low as possible before the “default”.”
    What is your best guess as to the maximum of how low these guys could push the prices of silver and also gold before “default”????
    Thanks for all you do.

  3. Bill makes a good case for Force Majeur, the next question would be; how do the criminals keep manipulating the price? A cash market means you need metal to sell, and you cant print up paper to sell.  This would mean an end to the manipulation and I believe a total monetary reset would be required.  Are the powers that be ready for this? 

    • That is what I am wondering also. I also wonder why the commercials have been bothering to cover much of their shorts the weeks leading up to this and let the small speculators go from long to short. Why not just stay as short as possible and cash in on the gold plunge? That does  not ring true with a comex default…. but one explanation may be that they also where caught off-guard by the landslide and had their “oh shit moment” that accelerated the whole game during last week. I would much rather see a controlled (but violent) correction upwards to a reasonable gold price than to have armageddon in a month from the paper system falling apart disorderly. I also think that TPTB does not want to have that kind of disorder either since there is always risk of them losing control… and if they do they would have to hide out in a dirt hole like Saddam when the pitchforks take to the streets.

    • “how do the criminals keep manipulating the price?”
      One possibility is that they have bribed enough politicians that they have NO fear of the law.  With enough money spread around, it is entirely possible that whatever they say IS the law.  Law is only law when it is enforced and the current Just Us department is pretty selective in that regard.  The fact that both Holder and Corzine are free as birds proves that.
      “A cash market means you need metal to sell, and you cant print up paper to sell.”
      No, they cannot print up any fiat but they have friends at the Fed who can and who will be happy to ensure that their manipulation games continue, even if that means handing them FREE money to make it work.  As to paper silver contracts, yeah, they can and do print up as many of those as they want.  The fact that they can slam prices by dumping 500,000 ounces of paper silver into the market during thinly traded hours shows that this is a price control mechanism and that’s all it is.  The vast majority of futures buyers do not want metal.  They want profits and whether those come from PM futures or tequila futures matters not in the least to them.  They do get a 2-fer with metals, though, in that this keeps them buddies with the Gov and the Fed, both of whom have a HUGE interest in supporting the US dollar and low interest rates.

    • If you required someone to have physical to sell a futures contract you would eliminate liquidity.  Speculators push prices too low, they also push them too high.  They facilitate the transfer from those producers who want to sell as highly as possible, to the end user who wants to buy as cheaply as possible.  

  4. Doc, I hope I am wrong but I don’t think the COMEX will default soon.  The COMEX is being used to suppress prices.  It is a way to subsidize consumption.  It’s great for the government because it masks their money printing and keeps the population at bay.  The subsidy burden is put on the producers.  It’s impairs companies that mine for metals.  It decreases the revenue of oil drillers.  It decreases the profitability of farmers. It is a form of stealing just like inflation.  The COMEX is too valuable to the government.

    • with these guys leveraged 100 to 1 (paper to physical) this physical shortage is huge. I would expect some derivatives to go belly up and start the dominoes rolling.

    • Physical stocks are at 10 year highs, yesterday in registered warehouses there were approx 166mln ounces, total open interest in silver is 155,815 contracts (note over two thirds of that in July and further contracts, i.e. doesn’t scream that the market wants its silver right now).  Those numbers work out to a total position of 779,075,000 ounces, and then calcs to a total leverage of about 4.7:1.

  5. I wonder whether there will be enough actual fysical demand to even warrant that planned default. But it makes sense, they just moved out some serious volume out of vaults, right? The bombs in Boston kept the public’s eyes from the markets for a few hours, immaculately timed. Not for maximum carnage, but maximum media attention during main metals events. Huge coincidence. 
    Iran Earthquake, what else to expect? We know how those come to be. Just like the macrowaved Dolphins that wash up there after a freak storm. g\Gotta love your wonderful country and its resourced to create magic. Never seems to happen without some form of blood shed. I am still glad I kept buying when I was able to, and prices were lower. The last bottom, I was never expecting to get proper delivery on. Glad I was well read into this. Don’t believe, expect the unexpected.

  6. bruinjoe:
    The suppression of prices does not need to be until eternity. Much better is dump&pump. 
    The big banks have been allowed for years to build great long positions, while the miners were being killed and stocks depleated.
    Now at the lowest prices in years, shorts can be undone with cash profit to holders. The longs may still be respected, or supplied against. Then the banks have a monopoly. They may buy up the whole mining sector and subsequently do a really bad job at meeting demand. Compare to the oil market the past decades. Did gas get expensive? Will metals get expensive?

  7. Hey, how about that!  A couple ‘big time’ analysts independently came to the exact same conclusion I’d reached yesterday! We are entering the dawn of the Black Market where real rational valuations will be forced to rise up on the serendipitous vicisitudes of Supply-Demand. What their treatment reminded me of (how stupid am I, of ALL people, to forget) is that the huge, enduring disruption to copper supply … mystically … forces it BACK into a perfect positioning for regaining it’s ‘small-money’ esteem again, so that silver and gold can more smoothly re-emerge onto copper’s ‘foundational platform’ in re-construction of the ‘new temple’ to Honest Money!
    Now, what these mints need to get cracking on, is re-tooling and ramp-up of copper coinage in the absence of silver and gold availability. The entire world will NEED that alternative ‘base’ instrument BIG time! As importantly, they’ll need to wrap their heads more seriously around what weight divisions will be most logical and not simply clonk out anything to merely keep the machinery in motion.
    Man, this is actually very exciting! ALL KINDS of really cool stuff can emerge from this ‘new day’. I’m finding myself strangely exultant, despite the drone of foreboding that’s preceeded this juncture.

  8. Since things happen in WAVES or Cycles…this price versus physical quantity event should be considered the 1 st wave.
    The second reactionary event should be 7 to 14 days out from the initial and the third and final corrective motion ie bottom will occur after the next market move downwards. This is just a little pause before the next downside event. The bottom will come in at 15.00 and then move from there…22.00 was just a foretaste.
    The table has been set for the investment bankers…the shorts cleaned up and are flush with cash now the weak hands will have sold into a declining price…and the rest of us…the investors for the long haul will sit back and wait for the inexorable ascendancy of Silver and Gold to their rightful PLACE and PRICE

  9. Somehow I don’t see the game ending that quickly.  I would expect the COMEX to deliver but it might take 6 months for your contract to get filled with the real physical bullion.  Then at the same time they continue to crash the market with intent of making those Gold Bugs pay dearly.
    The government prints over $2 Billion per day just for their unlimited QE slush fund.  They have plenty of money to throw at this problem for the short to mid-term.
    I believe the Bull In The China Shop will come from Chinese currency trade agreements which stop using the US Dollar for trades of goods and most importantly oil.  We see the hand writing on the wall but it could be some time before this really goes into high gear.  This falls in line with John Williams forecast about a dollar sell off and looming hyperinflation.
    Cliff High at Webbot (which has a so-so call rate) is calling for near term hyperinflation.  Start listening about 7:30 into this video:

    • “Somehow I don’t see the game ending that quickly.  I would expect the COMEX to deliver but it might take 6 months for your contract to get filled with the real physical bullion.”
      Forcing metal settlement to be as inconvenient as possible could well be part of the charade.  “You don’t really want this old nasty metal in 5-6 months.  No, you want nice clean dollars deposited into your account TODAY!”  lol

    • COMEX does not deliver, the person who sold the contract on COMEX delivers.  COMEX is just there to facilitate and guarantee the transaction.  If the person you bought from disappears, COMEX is on the hook.

    • @RocketsRedGlare, there is a scuba shop in downtown Edmonds, Washington that rents scuba gear.  But the water in Puget Sound is quite cold; rumor has it that divers pee inside their wetsuits to keep warm.
      But due to all the recent boating ‘accidents’ in the area, you are more likely to sh!t (rather than pee) when you see all the metal lying on the bottom of Puget Sound.

    • @Mammoth: I don’t care about the cold water but if the’re PMs lying on the bottom of the bay then the water is sure to be filled with Wall St. Sharks. A simi auto scuba gun would come in very handy. Good fun is where you find it! One can never get enough target practice either!!!!

    • Scuba diving in Puget Sound is not for the faint of heart.  A 16-18 foot great white could be prowling there and just might consider you a tasty snack.

  10. LCS Report:
    Yesterday I stopped by my local coin shop. After going in there for a year now, the proprietor knows me and we are on friendly terms. Up until two weeks ago he has always sold his pre-1965 Silver coins at spot, but was recently selling at 5% above spot.

    Anyway, yesterday afternoon he stood behind the counter with his arms crossed and told me that he had packed up all of his Silver coins, brought them home and locked them inside his safe. “Those coins are NOT coming out of there until the price of Silver comes back up,” he told me.

    Although this is only anecdotal evidence, this speaks volumes about the shortage of 90% which a number of people have observed.

    As a side-note, this LCS has also been sold out of Silver Dollars for the past two months; in the past he’d always had these on-hand.

    • I got that reception from a LCS (non-bullion most, just collectibles and stamps) already last June or July. I had bought a couple kg well under spot there earlier, and when I came for more, the 70y/o (or older) guy told me supply had dried up (too much for his liking I gathered), and that he’d stufff it all in his home vaults, not interested to sell in the foreseeable future.
      What would be the most profitable way to clean out COMEX for the powers that be? I don’t subscribe to just the suppression theory to window dress the economy. Ask people in the streets, who cares? The only thing cheap metals do, it pay off European CB”s that the US still owes a couple thousand tonnes of gold to. But really, to crash prices een further than then default and offer cash settlement, freshly printed dollars, that’s basically declaring war on Europe. Wars were started, especially by the USSA, over much less than that. And the US will have some domestic issues soon, or so they are hedging hemselves for with all those ammo and armored trucks purchases.
      I was thinking up till now that the TBTB would go megalong metals, buy up all the suffocating mines (as I suspect Rick Rule is correct in guessing Eric Sprott is doing), or even better : setting up toll booth companies (Rule again mentioned that recently). Then, let the prices naturally float up. A few minor HAARP induced natural disaster hitting mines and infrastructures should nett pretty decent profits. Just how to get rid of the shorts? A semi-default? Or could those be unloaded around current prices? I know too little to really understand that stuff. But totally foresee gold being priced higher so it can cover more currency, and silver so it can extract money from Asian industry.

    • Ed, you must mean the 4th Circle of Hell in Dantes Inferno. “After escaping the Hall of Gluttons, Dante enters the circle of Greed, which is mechanical in nature compared to the previous circles. Within the circle are occupants who are boiled alive in molten gold below, condemned for hoarding too closely or spending too freely with riches. In this “factory of torture,” Dante will be faced with the horrendous puzzles of the Wheel of Fortune which is used to deliver punishment, and come face to face against the fallen god Plutus, a living golden statue. 

    • The same way other products are priced: supply vs. demand.  Many of the foods you purchase are not set by the COMEX.  The car that you drive, the house that you live in – those items are not priced by the COMEX.  Good grief it would be better if things didn’t get “priced” by the COMEX.

    • You are right, most foods you purchase are produced by people who buy raw materials that are priced based on chicago markets hosted by CME group (part of NYMEX/COMEX)

  11. I am well prepared for my retirement. Thanks to people like Jim Sinclair, Mr. Sprott and Embry, James Turk, Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff etc. etc. I have loaded up with thousands of silver coins Eagles and Leaf for the last 3 years.

  12. I’ve been thinking the same for the last few months.  And with this SLAM, it sure looks like they’re trying to flush out the delivery request people.  No matter, the game sure looks like it’s falling apart fast.

  13. I received a message from Bill Holter concerning a message I posted on his site; My question was: what will happen if the COMEX collapses? His answer: Very real potential Mad Max.
    Ok folks what do you think will happen? PatFields mentions Black Market, what other things may happen?  What’s your thoughts? Feed Me! Feed Me!!

    • @Marchas45…I think they will let silver go first(before gold).  Here’s why.  Historically, it’s been the habit of TPTB to blow up a small island first and see what happens.  Think the Bikini Atoll with the A-bomb.  And now more recently think of Cyprus.  A ‘Force Majeure’ in silver would be a huge event, but light years away from what a ‘Force Majeure’ in gold would mean.  They could invent a silver shortage story to explain it away, i.e. mine collapse, cyber attack, fat finger from a rogue commodity trader.
      The price of gold is far more important to CBer’s than the price of silver.  And they would sacrifice silver to protect gold, because keeping the gold price weak keeps the dollar from tanking which keeps bonds from collapsing which keeps interest rates low so they can keep the money printing going.  It all hinges on gold not silver.
      Looking down the chessboard a move or two.  If they let silver go ‘Force Majeur”, then investors would exit their GLD positions.  That alone would provide cover pushing the price of gold down in the face of a physical silver moonshot. A bit counter-intuitive, but that has been how these markets have been working lately.

    • Gerald Celentes predictions dating back 6+ years ago started calling for the Stock Market Crash and then the Greatest Depression.  He called for Food Riots, Tax Revolts, Crime Going To Levels Never Seen Before and a Mad Max Scenario.  I’d suggest you study his work.
      However, what I believe would happen if this occurred would be a Bank Holiday.  If you don’t think this is a possibility then perhaps you should watch the video below starring none other than Mr. MF Global himself:


    • @Marchas45 .. I have to honour that with a reply … ‘feed me, feed me’ … you’re Audrey 2, right? Out of the little shop of horrors? Great movie .. thanks for that 🙂
      My 2 cents is … I think this is the big kahuna … dollar collapse (partial or complete) (which BrotherJohnF alludes to in his latest video), comex default, PMs to the stratosphere, crazy rioting / martial law within a week, terror attacks (of which we have already had 3 – boston bomb (which is a false flag btw .. wellaware1.com/boston.shtml), ricin envelope and probable cyber attack on American Airlines. Food shortages, global war.
      2 days ago on sunday on CNN, there was a report of 33 killed in bus crash in Peru .. the sunday before there were 2 reports of 9 and 11, respectively, killed in different places. I believe this was a signal from those j ws who own CNN to all the others round the world. And then this crazy week which started the very next day!! I have the screenshot if u want it.
      I think the banks are about to have a cyber attack which will result in closures. stock crash. The whole 9 yards. That is my belief on what will happen next, as things have progressed so quickly already this week.

  14. GLD and SLV holders will be in for a rude surprise as they will not be participating in any post ‘Force Majuere’ price increase surge.  Per the prospectus they can be cash settled at the lower, pre-moonshot price.

  15. If you watched eBay the price of silver never fell below the 30’s and the popular rounds dropped little or not at all. APMEX has a large inventory at lower prices but I sense they were ready for this. If you have ever ordered from them and paid with a personal check you will see their bank is JP Morgan. I bought a 5oz round from provident for right around 30/oz but it ain’t going to be showing up for awhile (15+ days).

    • As long as I get what I ordered in a timely manner, I could not care less who their bank is… or their janitors either.  Both are irrelevant.

  16. I always have a problem with ‘next week or within a few weeks’ since my business lives by rigorous time deadlines. But predicting when the COMEX or LBMA goes bust and has to resort to something not tried before could take a bit of time.
    The way things are setting up, with bail-in laws written into nearly every western country, NDRP laws, currency and hot wars flaring up around the globe and not one currency backed by anything other that the words of some lying assed dogs, it stands to reason things could get dicey PDQ
    Force majeur is a very convenient wrapper in which to break contracts and hurt those expecting contracts to be honored.  It will be abused and badly if certain events happen.  Once contracts and rule of law go out the window, bundled up in the F.M. shrink wrap, we might find our worlds a good bit different than the day before. Things move slowly until they start to move fast.  Does anyone have a video of the Rio Tinto wall collapse. It looks like Mt St Helens. Both started to explode or implode slowly until they went boom. 
    I think IMF and ECB tipped their hands when they engaged in a first wave of Cyprussing.  Bernanke was mad about this since it tipped his hand on bail-ins.  It’s possible this action was supposed to happen as a part of a  Blitzkrieg of confiscation across the globe, while silver and gold availability went to zero, some terrorist actions to distract the populace, certain natural disasters to get things started and then in the cover of darkness and stealth, a multi pronged strike with all available forces arrayed against the people across the battle lines.  Now the western world seems to be fighting with itself.
    China gloats while we are distracted with North Korea and Mini Me III. They are not all that sound but they are pretty prepped up and can fare a ways easier than the average soft westerner.  They have the backing of many countries who are fed up with the western way of doing things.
    The   meeting with Obama and 15 bankers is very telling. If these are the western bankers, meeting with the president, a man who is utterly clueless as to how these financial systems work, advised by some really bad players, and they want both protection and cover to do their dirty work as well as chances to fleece and rip of the sheep univited to the table  plus the lowly folks who think the government is interested in their well being, this alone gives me pause to think all this will end badly and many people will end up as collateral damage.
    It’s one thing to have the good guys arrayed on your side, working from the same play book,  seeking the same objectives and understanding what strategies and tactics will work. No one knows what sort of war is in the offing. No one has dealt with a systemic attack against the western reserve currency in their lifetime. Fog of War is the understatement of the century.
    How we will deal with the large forces working against the petro dollar system, consisting of more than half the world’s population and a big part of that GDP, will be more just a page out of the history book—it will be history in the making. The Petro Gold system may be the next evolution in our world.
    Stay frosty, stay low, prep up and expect the unexpected from any direction.

    • “Once contracts and rule of law go out the window, bundled up in the F.M. shrink wrap, we might find our worlds a good bit different than the day before.”
      Thanks to the MF Global and Sentinel court decisions, private property law, the rule of law, and contracts are already pretty well shot to hell.  All that remains is that it is convenient for some to honor their contracts.  When this becomes inconvenient, we will see MUCH abuse heaped upon those who expected their contracts to be honored when their counter-party had NO intention of honoring their promises.  The courts WILL back up these criminals, as usual.

  17. When the COMEX doesn’t default in the next week (or even the next month) are any of you going to remember how wrong this “guru” was?  Nope, most will be rallying on the latest prediction to suit their fantasy.  This is going to last awhile.  Be prepared for that.

    • Well why should I listen to you rather than the Guru? I’d just be exchanging Mutt for Jeff. Keep Stacking. He at least puts his thoughts out into something you can understand. You just disagree.

    • @Marchas45 ….I agree with you to Keep Stacking.  The question I do have for you is …..What is it about the economy right now that would make a Comex default a good idea?  If you believe in TPTB manipulating the market to keep the dollar strong and make money, why would they stop now?  Also, by later this afternoon there was a lot more silver available, it may be at a higher premium, but it’s out there.

    • @Stacksmack3000 I’ve never said the COMEX would default it would be nice but I don’t see it happening and as for Silver being out there, I believe that also, as I just bought 2 rolls of Buffalo’s this afternoon $2.00 above spot and I’m not having a hard time finding it, there are to many weak hands.
      I also tend to read everything but I may not believe what they have to say and I won’t ever condone anyone for their thoughts.
      I like the way Bill Holter writes and he explains things but I don’t always agree with what he writes.

    • I agree. Charlie.  Well said.  Holter is one of the Good Guys.  No, I don’t always agree with him either but I do like to read his thoughts and see if there is anything there that would be especially valuable.  If so, I tend to incorporate it into the body of info / knowledge that I have concerning PMs, the markets, economics, etc.  Reading a lot is good.  We should all do that.  We also need to develop a good BS filter to ensure that the good parts are filtered out and kept with the rest discarded.  Basically, what we need is a sluice box for information. I tend to find more of Holter’s writings worth keeping than many of the others out there.  He seems like a, “look ’em in the eye and shake hands on a deal”, kind of guy to me.

  18. silver bars of 1 kilo are still sold for 750 euros here in Holland, even when the spotprice is now at 54 cents per gram, that is 540 euros per kilo! People still pay a lot for physical silver..

    • @Caspar,
      Spot price isn’t the same as sale price, Refiners charge a cut on top of the Spot price, 750 euros is about 20 Euros above the price of the refiners (not taking into account Sales tax, 20% here in the UK). I don’t think thats too much of a cut for a Dealer in Bullion do you? They have to make a living. 🙂

  19. The proposed outcome -halted trading- is correct! This week is wrong! The actual date is known. There is no more knowledgeable analyst than precious metals pete, connected at the absolute highest level, and as far as i can see from the  time i’ve been following him, he’s never wrong. Amazing. Especially when all the other experts constantly call it wrong.

    • the bisons are cash and carry.. honestly I might try to get there tomorrow if the price stays reasonably low and get a tube or 2 on spec with my line of credit. I’m getting to the point that it isn’t prudent to keep buying in quantity..
      amazingly some idiot sold silvergoldbull a tube of grizzlies on this smash because they got scared and they are selling it for 945 which is actually a pretty tempting price.

    • @Canadian Dirtlump ….that would be a tempting price if you didn’t already have some grizzlies.  For me, I’d have trouble spending that much right now all things considered.  Now if it were a tube of wolves…………….

    • funny you mention wolves. I know of a place in calgary where the guy has a bunch of wolves in thermatron for 50 bucks each. My bro bought 6 a few months ago. We are going to check in with him ASAP. lol

  20. Of course I am as a stacker completely objective to all what is happening…. But I prefer to read these kind of articles than that silver will hit its 5$ bottom. Problem with these low prices is that as a small stacker I can’t do much. I already transfered most of my fiat into shiny 1 oz coins. I must say that I am really astonished by people who use the opportunity to buy more… I used all the better opportunities already…

  21. Sorry to burst the bubble, but if the American Controlled Comex, priced in Dollars did fail, it would just revert to a bunch of banker buddies in a room discussing the price and saying “yeah that will do today…lets roll with it”…its called the London Fix. Been going on for years. The Physical Bullion price has operated on the London Fix all this time, this Comex thing, brand spanking new, to control the perception of the dollar came in and took over the pricing mechanism as this was seen as the market deciding the price. All that will happen is that it will revert back to the old days of the rich deciding what price suits them.
    Just a thought, but if the Comex did fail, and say it defaults, how could it be settled in Dollars? This would be expansion of the supply of money that only the Fed can do, the money has to come from some place, what would happen? The Fed prints money for a private company? Come on this is never going to happen…lol…never been done before…bail out anyone?

  22. Oh to get a glimpse into the machinations of TPTB!!!

    Every possible outcome is now on the table, yet chances are we will still be blindsided both with the timing and the details. With so much interference from so many entities keeping it simple is the call of the day. I don’t know and understand everything in the world of finance but what I do know is to stack PM’s (silver is my choice metal), keep a stash of cash at home, empty bank accounts except for necessary transactions, out of equities….. and trust no government body from all four corners of the globe!! Oh and a bowl of popcorn ready for those  black swan events!!

    • “Oh and a bowl of popcorn ready for those  black swan events!!”
      What?  No handy adult beverage?  Munching popcorn is dry thirsty work.  😉

    • Well lets see are we talking a Corona with a slice of lemon, or a glass of Chardonnay Pinot Noir??
      Yet some how icy cold coke goes with popcorn perfectly!! 

    • @Charlie…  “We all don’t need an Adult Beverage to relax.”
      Hey, what kind of a Scot refuses a “wee dram”?  If word of this gets out, they may revoke your ancestry!  😉
      @Julie… “Well lets see are we talking a Corona with a slice of lemon, or a glass of Chardonnay Pinot Noir??”
      Either would be good but that frosty Corona looks best to me… and make mine a slice of lime  🙂
      “Yet some how icy cold coke goes with popcorn perfectly!!”
      Yes, it does.  But… adding a small splash of rum for flavor would be good too.  🙂

  23. I guess when anything good is about to happen in favor of Gold or Silver we get a little Gun Shy. I have my opinion of what and who caused the Boston Massacre yesterday, but I will keep that to myself. You must believe that The Gurus who write articles have more physical Gold and Silver in their possession than we do. An unwinding has started. Whether The Comex will crash on the stated schedule or not, it will crash. So don’t be surprised. Negative movement is all around us, our safety is holding in our hands physical Gold and Silver. That’s all we need to know because the end game is coming for Fiat currency period.
    My reservations are this The Shit can and will hit the fan!

  24. @widget They tend not to announce the crime to the public since that would somewhat undermine their capacity to rip-off. So, i can’t alas point out the info directly. The process involved in ‘time-out’ or force’ majeure’ is essentially an acknowledgement that the fraudulent and deceitful contractual terms to provide depository bullion for that lying paper contract can never be met. The truth is they never could. Rather difficult when all the physical gold in existence has been sold in paper form 100+ times by bullion banks via comex and London Lbma otc. Nasty little fraud. Well, ‘time-out’ and ‘force majeure’ are acknowledgement of practical reality. The comex contract permits payment, in such circumstances, in fiat. Fair enough swap- valueless paper gold contract for almost valueless currency.
    Would you be happy any time soon to re-enter a market selling you a lying , empty promise,  futures contract? The amount of paper to be burned in this process is so shocking that it will take at least a generation to pass before anyone dare venture into the territory of such stupidity again. 
    If you want gold or silver, you’ll have to go buy physical, not at an artificial, lying, ripping-you-off paper promise price, but at true value. Believe me, you are about to have the understanding of the difference between price and value demonstrated in the most unforgettable terms. 

  25. Oh by the way get the bulk of your savings out of the bank. Having a fire proof safe and a fire proof cash box inside your safe is a good thing. I used electronic transfer 6 times to my checking account and the thieves charged me $40.00 for the privilege of doing so, because I used the drive up window for safety but their limit is $2500.00. I learned it best, just to fill out a withdrawal slip and go inside the bank main lobby to withdraw funds. Still have 30K to go,but by Friday it will be in my hands.
    As I have posted here on the subject before, my bank is Comerica and my particular branch is downsizing. Got any clues yet?
    One teller visit on a big withdrawal asked me why I was taking out so much money, can you believe that? She also asked if I felt safe going out of the bank with the money I told her I felt very safe and that I had a guard waiting and the guard was on me. GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE BANK AND LEAVE ONLY ENOUGH IN THE BANK, PREFERABLY CHECKING, JUST TO PAY CURRENT BILLS!

  26. Ranger  Good plan and maybe if you can speed it up that would be good.  It is your money no matter what the banker may think.   Comerica is like most mid sized banks   They are shedding head count like a mallard on spin dry.  These banks and the smalls are being impacted by the terrible costs of Frank Dodd, a bill named for the two most financially inept politicians to come down the road since Groucho Marx and Fatty Arbuckle. \Nothing owuld surpise me when it comes to banks today
    Bail-ins, currency controls by the resident Fed Bank Nazis, bank holidays, cyber attacks, more silver and gold terrorism, a really epic attack against TPTB, any one of which would and could be the excuse needed to shut things down. I pay bills months and even a year in advance to rid myself of excess bank balances. My plan is to strip mine my account to bupkis with little more than a pinch to pay bills. 
    PS the Precious metal smack down took barely 3 weeks to complete. It will probably take months just to regain the $29 handle and $1,600 on gold.

  27. @Sovereign Economist
    You are spot on about LMBA. I have warned SLV holders on their message board to get the Hell out of SLV, but most of the goons just see a buying opportunity for the diluted low price of a dollar under spot that they are paying. Those folks are going to get hosed and on SPDR GLD as well!

    • Thanks @Ranger but that’s not an option for me. It’s a complicated situation but long story short I am not able to buy (more) physical (or I would have 2½ years ago) so my only options are to either take a 4x leveraged loss and exit to fiat or hope for a swing back and then exit. At this point there’s not much left to lose anyways… :(I’m jealous for all of you guys who can just run down to the LCS on a dip and scoop up! I’m hoping for a non-violent high revaluation of gold/silver and see it back as a role of money.

  28. From Harvey Organ today:
    At the comex, the open interest in silver fell slightly to 162,414 contracts despite the massive raid on Monday. The open interest on the gold contract surprisingly fell by only 3,307 contracts to 426,722.  So much for gold and silver liquidation. The total amount of gold ounces standing for April rose to 34.65 tonnes and silver also had an increase to 3.535 million oz standing.
     The OI for silver remained elevated again today despite the huge loss in price yesterday, one must believe that only a sovereign (maybe China) could withstand that much pain.  The price of silver has declined from $35.00 to $ 23.00 with open interest rising.  The loss has to be gigantic and only a sovereign could be that stoic.
    IMO, price of the metals are absolutely useless right now in the paper markets.  It doesn’t matter where the price goes.  They can’t shake these people out of their positions.  I still think we are going lower, especially in silver.  The open interest just won’t budge.  Margin requirments, naked shorting, smashing leasing rates, hasn’t worked to force these guys to pitch their contracts.  A epic battle is going on between the East vs. West.  The West is throwing the book at them but to no prevail.  With all the great info coming about Barack and the Utah mine going tits up, the supply level will or already is a huge problem.  I wouldn’t believe stories like this but you can start to see the cracks.  Why all of sudden the smash down in price in the metals on Friday and Monday?  These kinds of actions are saying something is very wrong behind the curtain.  It reminds me of May 1, 2011 in the futures market.  Silver was going past 50 and then BOOM!!  Down 12 bucks in minutes in a lightly traded market.  JPM and the central banks had no choice but to smash the price.  They didn’t care how obvious it was.  They were trapped and silver couldn’t go past 50.  This move on Friday and Monday felt the same way. 

    • @duckvision The MSM MOPEs did not care how obvious the smash was either and continued to give total ludicrous reasons to explain it away. The worst one i’ve heard from the financial media so far: “…bitcoin could have effected gold, because those who speculate in bitcoin usually also own gold. these speculators would then have had to sell gold to cover their losses in bitcoin. this according to Jim Rogers.” !! Sorry… this link is in swedish and didn’t work with google translate… but you can translate just the text at google if you’d like https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/press_article.jsp?article=244427

    • Bury both the 100oz and the bankers?  Sounds like a plan to me.  I’m in this for the long haul.  This isn’t about gold and silver to me, its about ending the corruption started hundreds of years prior and bringing human society to the next step in evolution.

  29. A default at the comex would be the smoking gun that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that the house was committing fraud.  One of the tellers at my bank was mocking me about the price of metal today.  I told him that even if he got the wise idea today to buy the dip that there would probably be no Silver available.  It doesn’t matter what Eric Holder or Jamie Dimon say this time.  The fraud at the comex is not too big to expose.    

    • @andrew_james I don’t know dude. I think Bill is right in that they’re just going to say “We didn’t see it coming!” just like they have done with all other bubbles that suckered the public but which were obvious to a lot of good guys who rang the alarm for years. Hell… they even got away with robbing MGF customers and saying they don’t know what happened to the money…

  30. Here is a bank that knew the job was up 
    ABM AMRO, or as I call it, BAN MOAR Gold. 
    barely two weeks ago the bank told people with gold at the bank that they would have to settle in cash starting April 1 at the spot price, lower of the bid and ask.  If they did not know of this $200 smackdown in the price of gold, settling in cash for more than 10% discount to the    late March price,  I am a monkey’s uncle.  Timing is everything but DAMN, this is way to coincidental.  Riiiiiigh!

  31. Friom Harvey Organ:
    we  lost another monstrous 8.42 tonnes gold  at the GLD today following 22 tonnes on Friday and 4.2 tonnes yesterday. 

    Ladies and Gentlemen, this is no gold liquidation..this is gold that China is demanding over in London.

    • My stack isn’t for sale at any price.  Its for after the collapse that we very badly need. The only way this ends is that people stop sending it to the hands of bankers.

    • APMEX is buy ASE’s for $1.80 over spot.  That all will change when they run out and are not moving product.  Velocity of Silver means profit or no profit.  Give it some time.  Buy prices are the last to rise.

  32. Just visited again the largest gold/silver bullion dealer in Aus, located at Pitt St, Sydney.
    Yesterday lunchtime, there was about 20 people lining up, waiting to get in to the store to be served.
    Today lunchtime – same time, there was about 70. The expression on the faces of the people when they come out of the escalator…XD
    I frequent this dealer, and have never seen a line before.
    Talk about supply and demand…

    • Have known this for years.  The British needed it to stop a run on the Pound.  Ft. Knox is full of nerve gas, like a soldier posted not too long ago.  That’s why they stopped the tours to the public.  Wake up folks, we’re BROKE.

  33. A friend of mine emailed this to me. You can find the original at barnhardt.biz.  
    Originally penned and posted on December 15, AD 2011, seven weeks after MF Global.
    3. Finally, a very simplistic explanation of how the cash commodity markets are soon going to decouple from the futures markets. This is a little complex, but stay with me. I think this is important to understand because none of us who have lived our whole lives in the U.S. have ever seen a market disintegrate.
    The threat (or promise) of delivery upon expiration is what keeps the futures markets tethered to the cash markets. Up until now, if an unreasonably wide spread between the futures price and the underlying physical commodity market got too out of whack, a process called “arbitrage” would kick in. Arbitrage is when a party simultaneously buys and sells on two separate but related markets in order to capture an inefficient spread between those two markets.
    I’m going to use precious metals as my example commodity because there are alot of metals guys reading this, and because the metals markets will be the big tell in term of when decoupling and thus total futures market disintegration is upon us. But these examples apply to all of the physical commodities.
    Let’s say that the physical silver market is trading far lower than the silver futures price. This is what is called a WEAK BASIS. The BASIS is the relationship between the cash market and the futures market and is very simply defined as (CASH minus FUTURES). If cash silver can be bought at $25.00 per ounce and the futures are at $30.00 per ounce, the cash is $5.00 under the futures. When cash is under the futures, this is called a WEAK basis.
    Up until now, what would a metals trader do? In very simple terms, he would buy the cash silver at $25.00 per ounce and then simultaneously sell the futures at $30.00. Because he has short-sold the futures, he could hold the contract to expiry and then deliver the $25.00 cash silver he bought to make good on the contract and receive his $30.00 price. So his simple net profit would be $5.00 per ounce. As many traders saw this spread and simultaneously executed this same strategy of buying the cash and selling the futures, what effect would this have? Right. It would cause the cash-futures spread to move back in toward convergence by pushing the futures price down (lots of sellers) and propping the cash market up (lots of buyers).
    Now the opposite scenario: a STRONG basis. Let’s say cash silver is trading at $32.00 and the futures are trading at $28.00. A trader might take physical silver that he has in inventory and sell it in the cash market, and then immediately take those proceeds and buy back and equal number of ounces in the futures market and take delivery. Since the same number of ounces in the futures market cost $4.00 per ounce LESS, he would end up with the same number of ounces in his inventory PLUS $4.00 per ounce in CASH in his pocket. If he and many other traders saw this condition and they all sold cash silver and bought the futures, this would, again, converge the spread between the cash market and the futures market.
    The lynchpin that is holding this dynamic together and keeping the futures markets tied to the underlying cash market is the fact that the futures contracts are deliverable, and a trader can either deliver or take delivery of actual physical silver via his futures position.
    Are we seeing a problem yet? The futures markets have lost their viability and trustworthiness because of the MF collapse and theft.At some point in the not-too-distant future, people everywhere are going to realize that the delivery mechanism is not reliable. Heck, just holding cash and/or positions in a futures account is no longer reliable. The the market itself is not reliable, traders will no longer attempt to arbitrage these basis spreads because the risk to the trader that the rug will be pulled out from underneath them is simply too great.
    And in the metals markets, the delivery process itself is . . . um . . . shall we say, easily corrupted? When you “take delivery” of physical metals, it doesn’t get sent to your house. All you get is a certificate saying that X number of ounces are being held in a certified vault somewhere with your name on them. After the MF collapse, that sounds like a joke, right? A CERTIFICATE with my NAME ON IT? Yeah. That really is how it works.
    When the arbitrageurs finally lose all confidence in the markets, the cash market will decouple from the futures because no one will be willing to take the risk of having their money, positions and/or physical metals stolen/confiscated. If no arbitrageurs are willing to trade these spreads – no matter how wide they may become – and thus there is no force causing the cash and futures to converge, we will see the basis spreads become extremely wide. As people flee the futures markets, the futures prices will drop, while the cash markets hold steady or even diverge and actually rise as all of the former paper players realize that physicals are the only remaining game to be played.
    Watch for this. Watch for the gold and silver futures to sell off as people walk away from paper while the online cash dealers, seeing that market demand for their physical inventory is robust, begin to ignore the futures prices and hold their prices steady or even raise them. When you see this basis decoupling and absence of arbitrage, lo, the end is nigh. A parabolic spike is coming.

    • I paid a 23% premium on the 10 ASE’s today.  So I’d say the disconnect is starting.  With all the big wholesalers virtually out of stock, people are buying regardless of price.  The mining industry can just start selling directly to the public and make more profit.  Let the COMEX buy from Tulving and others.

  34. I cannot help but notice…everyone is a slave to their own personal situation.
    What will happen when the lights go out? I should have asked Tesla that question.
    We are all in this together and boundaries really do not matter…yours VS. mine
    Don’t you people understand this. The same people you criticize are the people
    doing what we are doing, but on a different scale….Time for a change, and it will
    be spiritual….on a collective level…’Necessity is the mother of invention and change’!

  35. I’m in Thailand at the moment and just thought you might like to see this Thai news video from this morning. My wife informs me that the basic translation goes something like this. There is currently a run on the gold shops throughout Thailand with queues forming up outside even before the doors open to take advantages of the knocked down prices. It goes on further to say that there are currently NO BULLION BARS AVAILABLE and orders placed today should be filled after a week.

    • Great Video! Most, if not all of us here expected this would happen. But it sure is great to have tangible evidence of it. Thank you for the excellent update from the other side of the world!

  36. The following statement has been placed on http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au website where I have been sourcing my bullion from lately. I estimate them to be in the top 5 bullion dealers in Australia.

    “It is with regret that the web shop is closed until further notice.  We will reopen as soon as possible.  This decision has not been taken lightly.  If we don’t have it, we don’t sell it.  We would not close the web shop if we had sufficient stock to offer for sale, no matter the price.

    Our current stock is almost exhausted.  In the last week we have had 30+ clients waiting to be served personally, at any given time during the day.  Online orders are being received faster than they can be processed.
    After Easter 2011, we also closed the shop due to similar circumstances.  Our long term clients will recall that historic time in the bullion market.
    We are doing all we can to replenish stock as soon as possible.  We have also temporarily engaged extra staff to assist with enquiries.  However, we continue to be unable to meet the expectations of our clients, both in terms of telephone and on site enquiries,as well as product supply.
    We regret the inconvenience that this event has caused and look forward to your continued understanding and support.
    Geoff and Brian and the Ainslie Team

  37. Keep up all the great reporting guys! It’s the best evidence of WHAT is really happening in terms of supply/demand. The spot price is now meaningless. We need to keep each other informed into what is happening while the MSM tries to obfuscate the facts. The individual LCS and on-line bullion reporting across the globe is extremely helpful and insightful. Thank you!
    To contribute my share: Here in NY, USA, I visited two LCS. One claimed to be completely out, the other, with whom I have a better business relationship with told me he has but isn’t selling anywhere close to spot (and this was at $25 silver, $1500 gold).  After some convincing, I was able to pick-up some silver halves at $11/per which was wayyy over spot. In defense of his high premiums, he told me prices continue to go up at the wholesale level. Additionally he said an old friend of his recently called him up when gold fell below $1600, looking to pick up five hundred thousand dollars worth of gold. He said he wasn’t able to source it to him himself, but did the research and found someone who could.

  38. There is something important to note here.  If a business is unable to obtain inventory, whether it’s a restaurant without food, a gas station without fuel or a bullion dealer without precious metals, that business will soon cease operations. You can’t sell from an empty wagon.
     Costs continue but without the income to pay the overhead most businesses cannot remain in operation more than a few weeks before their cash balances are depleted and they must close their doors.  Businesses are notorious for being liquidity short.   Most of their cash is tied up in inventory,  receivables and fixed assets.  All have current liabilities that have to be paid within a week to a month.  When the income stops, the liabilities do not.  Creditors can be demanding in that way.
    I don’t know how long a bullion firm can remain in operation, eating its seed capital, selling down to the last few coins and bars until the shelves are bare but unless they have a continual resupply of inventory to replace what’s sold, they must and will cease operations. Businesses like this have VERY THIN margins so without a continual feed of new stock, their cost will soon skyrocket when compared to regular sources of income.  They can’t convert to a used car lot or medical service firm to replace the lost income.  Thus the note from the Australian firm, Ainslie, is closed UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE is more than a bit frightening.  How long can they remain a viable business before reopening is no longer an option? 
    As a business owner for the last 21 years, I can say with 100% certainty that most business people, when faced with a total shut off of their primary revenue stream, without any knowledge at to when the stocks will be refilled, business owners to quite often close their doors immediately, thus stopping the cash hemorrage of employee costs, rent, utilities and other fixed overhead.  The ripple effect of these shutdown can’t be calculated without more data but I can say with certainty that the owners are out of business now and may be permanently closed.  Restarting in the future is questionable at best since the costs to restart the business are always certain to be greater than the capital saved by closing the doors. 
    Once the owners are crippled by the closing of their business, the psychological damage often makes the entrepreneurs unwilling to risk what is left of their wealth, if they even have the capital remaining.  If the effects are sufficiently widespread, the systemic risks to one particular industry makes the viability of any venture questionable once the industry is damaged by force majeurs or other violent wrenching of the industry.
    If the damage to the wholesale and retail aspects of the bullion business by these shortages was an intended effect or that they are simply collateral damage, this could be very bad for the industry, leaving only a handful of firms in business after this inventory cut off shakes out. 
    If the end results of inventory shortages in  a vital business operation continue unabated, the industry could be crippled for years.  The other effect is moving the vast bulk of the industry into a small number of firms, thus concentrating the entire structure of bullion dealers into a very few hands   That’s not good for competition or pricing but it also makes that smaller group of companies a more convenient target for the enterprises who created the shortages that crippled the industry originally.  It’s one thing to damage a group of resaurants:  Others will fill that gap. It’s another thing to remove the means to sell physical bullion to the masses.  The ability to engage in price determination through competition will be taken out of the equation, thus price seeking mechanisms will no longer be available.
     The concentration of the businesses necked down to a few large dealers makes the regulatory targeting and control easier to put into place.  For those who want to damage the industry and remove the means for us to buy physical bullion, this is an ideal result of the perfect storm.  If the COMEX and others are stripped of their assets, then the trickle down effect will be catastrophic.    Maybe that was one of the things hoped for by those who are responsible for this destructive force.
    I don’t know enough about the overall marketplace for dealers or how they will function in this climate of inventory scarcity but there are parallels in any commodity where the entire industry is controlled by a handful of people. It comes to no good end.

    • Good post and I agree.
      The more bullion dealers there are the better.
      I think the people running Ainslie are wise to what’s going on as they publish stories on their site from the alternative media and not the MSM. They may have a sufficient buffer to be able to endure any supply drought. What’s stopping them from ignoring the London Price Fix and setting their own Buy/Sell prices based on actual market forces once supply totally dries up?

  39. Great info people…keep it up! 🙂
    Here in Europe it seems that there is still plenty of silver to go around. ASE are a bit harder to get but nothing close to what I would call a silver shortage. People do not know what is going on in the markets. MSM in Norway and Croatia barely mentioned the drop in the gold price. It is sad to say it but people in Asia are waaaaay more awake then people here in Europe. This cannot end good. With the nationalistic tendencies growing all over Europe, especially towards non-europeans. I don’t know…I almost feels like living in 1910 or 1935. Sorry for being negative but that`s how it is… Down with zombification!!!! 🙂

  40. PS    I was thinking too small on the above post.  The what-ifs of silver and gold scarcity will quickly affect dozens of other industries from  retail jewelers to fabrication shops, electronic manufacturing firms, medical process companies and others where silver is absolutely mission critical 
    One key component supply failure can stop the entire industrial process, shutting down the aseembly line.  This appeared to happen at Apple’s Foxconn plant in China recently.  Just In time manufacturing processes will be a very weak link if silver is unavailable.
    If the silver shortage becomes systemic then military applications could suffer, industrial applications go into critical declines and the government will step in.
    WOW 26,000 views of this SD essay must be a record

    • Perhaps that’s the plan, TPTB do seem intent on wrecking everything on the planet.
      De-industrialisation of the West and a return to Feudalism.

      P.S. Just found these guys (http://www.goldstackers.com.au/store/) have this on their site:

      Current market conditions
      Due to the current fall in the gold and silver market, we are experiencing unprecedented demand for physical inventory. At this time all of our suppliers are able to provide us with stock, however lead times are increasing, and this is affecting order delivery times. Please expect 2-4 weeks on all deliveries during this busy time.

  41. Doctor copper is being hammered today.  That’s a good thing for gold bugs since gold is often found in copper mines.  If copper demand falls and miners cannot get the price to match cost then the production of both metals decreases.  There are only a few pure gold mines in operation.  For example, the largest producing gold mine in the world, Grasberg mine, is primarily a copper mine.

  42. Tawnyard   The notion of storing gold in any form of bullion bank, even Switzerland, is being repudiated regularly.  There is evidence that Swiss allocated gold accounts were stripped of their gold.  One client found that it took weeks to get his gold returned and that was over a year ago. When he finally received his physical, the mint dates were years later than the ones he placed in supposed safekeeping.  Allocated accounts are being mined by the bullion banks and vaulting services.  The leasing or sale of gold in these accounts is becoming a regular occurence   Jim Willie speaks about this often and his sources confirm that allocated and segregated accounts are being invaded and the precious metals either stolen in an outright manner or leased out.  The Swiss are also being forced to reveal the names of account holders and if they are found to be under some sort of violation of US tax and currency laws these private holdings are seized.  The Euro zone is becoming  a central bankers happy hunting ground for precious metal seizures since the new currency and PM laws are making the movement of gold and silver illegal.  A motorist was stopped and the one ton of gold he had in his car was taken. He was trying to leave Italy with his gold and it was taken   That was about $60,000,000 in gold. As of April 1 the large Dutch bank ABN AMRO told its clients that any gold holdings in its vaults would not be returned. They would only pay the account holder the gold value in cash. With the crash of gold prices it would not surprise me to hear that those who stored their gold valued at $1,500 to $1,900 will get back only the spot less the ask price and receive no more than $1,350 per oz. That is theft plain and simple
    If you don’t hold it you don;t own it

  43. Hey guys, Im not what you would say anyone that believes I have an idea of how all this works, but could it have something to do with the German gold that is owed? Cheaper prices mean its easier to pay your dues with easily accessible printed fiat maybe??? Sorry for the conspiracy BS as Im probably so way off its pathetic, I may as well say $2500 Gold by the end of 2013! Now there some KWN truth:)

  44. did someone mention adult beverages?  I have to thank Ranger for his quip that he would not trust anyone who does not drink.  I had to start drinking to trust myself.  Cheers.  Don’t start without me.

  45. COMEX will not default in the next several weeks and I would bet some of my own silver to that statement.  So what if there is a run on delivery???  Open interest in April silver is 28 cnts, and 585 in gold, silver is a non-starter with stocks at 10 year highs.  Gold is easily covered by multiples with registered stocks.  If you believe the vaults are really empty I can’t fight that and I don’t believe that.  Even if they are, price will solve…  For instance you are long gold and not selling, the short will bid higher and higher to get you to sell until it reaches the point where you do in fact sell, or the action gets so high that the short has a less painful way out by obtaining the physical, perhaps by buying 50,000 of the ETF and converting it.
    Also, COMEX is moving towards MORE physical delivery with the addition of a physically settled 1000oz silver contract that starts trading in June (first delivery month is September 2013).  This is a good thing as it brings the idea of obtaining silver at spot price into grasp for many more businesses and individuals.

Leave a Reply