According to JPMorgan (who would know since as a primary dealer, they flip treasury take-downs to the Fed roughly 30 minutes after issuance for a handsome profit), the Federal Reserve is currently absorbing approximately 90% of new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets.
Go back and re-read that last sentence. That’s right, even the financial MSM is now admitting that the Fed is now nearly entirely monetizing the US deficit outright.
This is why QE4 will be announced next Wednesday (which has already been fully priced in thanks to multiple leaks from the Chicago Fed’s Evans as well as Bernanke last week) and why the Fed will ramp up outright purchases to $85 billion a month ($1.02 Trillion/yr) when operation Twist ends- there are simply no remaining buyers of US debt.
Those who fail to see where this is headed may wish to acquire a copy of When Money Dies to grasp how the situation played out in Weimar Germany.
Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.
The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.