big resetRaoul Paul sent shock-waves throughout the financial markets in June in what Tyler Durden called the scariest presentation ever, when Paul predicted a complete systemic collapse of the financial system was merely 6-9 months away.  Is the Big Reset still imminent?

The world has no engine of growth with most of the G20 countries approaching stall speed at the same time.  The western world is about to enter its second recession in an ongoing depression…
For the first time since the 1930’s we are entering a recession- before industrial production, durable goods orders, employment, and private sector GDP have made back their previous highs. ‘

As to the timing of the collapse Paul states:
2012- 2013 will usher in the end.  We have about 6 months left…  Assume that no one and nothing is safe.  After that, we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges.

As to what the collapse will look like:
A global banking collapse and massive defaults would bring about the biggest economic shock the world has ever seen.  No trade finance, no shipping finance, no finance for farmers, no leasing, no bond market, no nothing…


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The End Game

  1. Wow! Eye opening but something we all know here at SD’s. I can only thank the DOC and Bull Run for opening this site for the benefit of others. This is a dire prediction and I, for one, can’t call the timeline. I know it is soon. Keep on doing what you all are doing and we’ll come through better than most.

    • Off topic, but i can’t seem to get any answers on this; can anyone give me some assurance that Bullion Vault is a safe place to store pm? It is part of the LMBA and i’m concerned if the LBMA defaults, i’m f..ked. It stores in ViaMat safes, not HSBC, JPM or BoE. – anyone?

    • @MrYuri I use them. I think that Tustain is kind of a more reclusive version of James Turk. I like the guy. It’s a different system from GM, in that it’s a closed system. BV members buy and sell from each other, not to a bot directly linked the open market. This can work for and against, if you think about it. I mean, in a liquidity crisis, GM has to sell onto the open market. That’s the business model. I can envision a time when this could be a drawback as supply gets tighter. As in, once it’s gone, it’s gone. A closed system might force discipline. The fee structure is different, too. There’s nothing wrong with Via Mat. James Turk uses them for GM.

    • Egon von Greyerz has been saying since 2009 is keep your PM’s out of the banking system including safe deposit boxes.

      Nothing wrong with it, but this site more represents the notoriety side of gaining status as an authorized dealer with the US Mint. 5 years of noteworthiness and a lot of cash to buy at the Mints small markup as an authorized dealer is the endgame. Dragging a few stories at before its news gets exposure and customers and comments.

      Make no mistake, Doc and Bull are in this to be a top tier bullion dealer like APMEX.

      Between the two, well, you can see, they are making strides.

      Good for them, be aware, and do your own due diligence.

      There is a premium for us to buy from them, a mark down to sell, and a tax to pay for capital gains.

      BTW…massive drop in silver prices in progress.

    • That’s right, 427.  While others are still standing around with that deer-in-the-headlights look, we will all be taking action and battening down the hatches.
      Along these lines, I got a story to tell.  For the past 6 months, I have been trying to educate my wife out of being a sheeple towards more of being a prepper.  She gets it as far as food and water go but when I start telling her about the banking system and how shaky it is, her eyes kind of glaze over and I realize at that point that I am talking to myself.  Anyhow, we went to our local credit union last week and she wanted to withdraw $1000 in cash for her business.  Guess what?  No money on hand, so no can withdraw more than $100.  This one silly little incident opened her eyes more in 30 seconds than I have been able to do in the last 6 months.  I dunno.  Maybe she will now be more open to learning about some of this stuff.  Hope so.

    • No one knows the future.  All we can do is make some educated guesses based on our knowledge and experience.  Huge events like this looks to be can take decades to develop and then they virtually explode into the national consciousness over-night.
      Likely, it will start with runs on some banks and then more banks, and then all hell breaks loose from there.  Massive government over-reaction that makes it all worse than it might have been, panic by citizens, business leaders, and then government leaders.  There will be a horrendous desire to “do something”, whether it is the right thing or not.  That was what made the 1930s depression so awful.  Left alone, the market would have sorted it all out in a couple of years but thanks to the Gov and Fed, it dragged on for 10+ years.  We can always hope that they learned something from that but it is typical for the politicians to learn ALL of the wrong things from such events.
      How long will it last?  Impossible to say but probably at least 3-4 months at a minimum and perhaps as long as a decade or two.  My guess is as good as anyone else’s, so I am guessing that it will take 3-4 years before it is finally resolved.  The saving grace part is that if this is a world wide super-depression, there will be cooperation among nations to do what is needed to correct this ASAP.  It will be to everyone’s advantage to get this behind us, learn the hard lessons that it entails, and get on with creating a much more solid economy that is far less prone to these problems.

  2. Durentu,

    There’s no way to tell how long it will last. IMO, you may need 3-12 months cash to pay your bills while things are sorted out. Maybe less maybe more. I’ve got a feeling if you can stack a few (3?) months cash, a reset will have happened and a new fiat may come into being. Your PM’s will be worth a mint because no one will trust any paper. The Blythes ( have’t heard from ya in a while Blythe) and Dimons and Bernankes, etc. will be in hiding. Stack a little cash, food, meds., ammo, (See Da Yooper Post), PM’s and communications along with like minds, etc. and you’ll be just as the rest of us are (most of us anyway).  I don’t recall you posting before but if I’ve missed it, please accept my apology. Stack on my brother/sister.

  3. You don’t need experts to tell you what’s going on or how bad it is. You can all very well, very detailed, very sourced, find out what the fuck is going on.

    Screw those ads, just like that mindless supposedly “supported by David Morgan” useless worthless freaking ad that was put on Max Keiser’s site today. And the disgraceful defense from Stacy.

    Look, either you’ve watched it or you didn’t. And then you decide to put it up or not. No hard feelings though.

    Names… what are names. They’re memes to sell from but what are u selling then…

    Now even I am confused LOL,


  4. 10-4 that 427. I’m still as green as they come. Learning daily. Much more educated now than 2 years ago because of the DOC’s site. I watched for  a long time before I ever posted. I can’t say how mouch I appreciate the advice and comments from everyone here. I feel like I am more prepared than 90% of the populace becasue of the DOC’s site. I get a little carried away with the comical stuff but I hope I have helped someone as much as all you have helped me. Good night all.

  5. Meh, most of all.. protect and keep your humanity, that’s what’s going to save you in the end. In the end, aside from a few miserable mass murderers we’re all friends. We belong together!

    No doubt about that.

  6. The Weimar Hyper-Inflation incident lasted about 3 years before things began to stabilize.  When Brazil had their last currency crisis it lasted about 2 years however before this they had around 5 years of high devaluation.  So it came in waves.

    One could look at history and estimate that a currency crash usually begins with a Bank Holiday followed by 2 to 5 years of high inflation which comes in waves.  There will quickly be a Run On The Banks resulting in the inability for most to withdraw any large amount of funds.

    Its extremely doubtful a collapse and resulting new stabilized currency could happen in a matter of 3 to 6 months in any country.  Instead its probably 2 to 5 years.

    The Argentina Crisis and resulting default lasted near 3 years. 

    • @PowerBall
      In all but the Weimer case (and in that, to a considerable degree), there were only paper currencies and tokens to allay price effects of the underlying inflations. Had The Peoples of the countries that endured modern inflations simply chosen to revert THEMSELVES back to the hard money scheme of copper, silver and gold, they’d have immediately protected themselves from further devastation suffered from sheer Pavlovian predillection for use of paper.
      There is a core distinction between ‘transaction’ orientation and ‘trade’ orientation in the public’s consciousness that perpetuates these stupid banknote schemes and the certain eventual financial doom they systemically embody. Under the mentality of a ‘transactional’ view, a keen awareness of a good’s worth is dulled into imperception, whereas under the ‘trading’ conceptualization, the reconning of equal worth takes on a pivotal focus upon both objects of exchange.
      Not to dismiss the data you’d highlighted, but to draw closser attention to the root cause; it’s clear that however long or short past ‘recoveries’ have been, their very eventuality is wholly predicated on gross mis-valuation of credit, money and goods-at-market due blatantly to the initial presence of paper transaction instruments (banknotes) and all the further economic erosion caused by the necessity of interest incurred on them.

  7. Good point PowerBall, History always repeats it self. Although this may be worse than the ones you mentioned, this will be global. That has no history ever, the whole world will need to reset. A world war will reset it now that is history

  8. 2oz, thanks but I’m with powerball on this one.

    Originally, I was thinking that it could be a few months. But after reading about major economic failures like the long depression, great depression, yugoslavia, zimbabwe, argentina, etc…  we’re talking minimum of a year upwards of a decade..
    My original plan of “stack it and wait” is at best 6 months to a year. Anything more than that, then I’m SOL.
    Currently, I’m ripping through the net for alternative strategies with a time horizon of 3-5 years and possibly 10 years … I’m not sure I can trust my canned food for 10 years … ya know?
    • ” I’m not sure I can trust my canned food for 10 years … ya know?”
      Indeed we do.  Although most of us have our own ideas about how long things last, mine is that dry food can last up to 10 years if carefully packaged and kept cool, dark, and protected from bugs and mice.  Canned food can last up to 5-6 years under the same conditions.  Yes, it is probably edible after that but its food value declines with time and it can get to the point where it’s not worth eating.  Freeze dried foods can last up to 20-25 years.  
      My plan is to keep 2-3 years worth each of canned foods, dry foods, and freeze dried foods.  These are all backup foods to the seeds that I have stashed.  I really like gardening and can raise a lot of food in a relatively small space.  This can be the main food source for mid-summer through fall.  If you can home can and dry some of it, that’s even better.  Any seeds are better than none but the so-called “heritage” seeds that produce food AND viable seeds you can plant in subsequent years are the best.  The growing season can be extended via having a greenhouse.  If it is well planned, it need not be huge to be a big help.  Lots of good info on the Internet / YouTube about how to build or operate one of these.  Having fresh food for an extra month or two could be very important in a SHTF situation.
      If you have some space, having a few chickens and rabbits would be good too.   Waste from these animals are great fertilizer, especially when used as compost.  A small pond can also be good for providing some extra protein in the diet.   Tilapia are easy to raise and mostly eat bugs and aquatic plants, so food costs for raising them are pretty low.  Again, lots of info on the net about how to do this successfully.
      Between the purchased food and the home grown food, we should be able to last for at least 10 years, if not more.  By then, things should be well sorted out and then the silver stash comes into play.  This may not be the best plan out there but it is a decent one and way better than no plan at all like 95% of our fellow citizens out there.

  9. “There will quickly be a Run On The Banks resulting in the inability for most to withdraw any large amount of funds.” – PowerBall

    Could be.  OTOH, Helicopter Ben could show up with so much freshly printed money that everyone really can get “their” money from the banks.  If there is a bank holiday, it will probably only last long enough to get the semis filled with cash and distributed.  While that could solve the short-term problem of people getting their money, it could also usher in a HUGE wave of heavy duty inflation.

    “My original plan of “stack it and wait” is at best 6 months to a year. Anything more than that, then I’m SOL.” – durentu

    That is similar to my plan, so I am hoping that the stack I have is large enough thanks to PM prices going hyperbolic.  If I can pay my bills with a few ozs. of silver each month, then no problem with the finances.  If not, then I agree that it will get pretty dicey before any new system can come in and stabilize things. Heh, I never thought of a flock of chickens as a financial asset before but they could sure turn out to be on helluva good investment!

  10. Long term 5-10 year food storage is some of the least costly since most people don’t but that stuff and it does require some work to prepare.  If you visit The Sh** hit the fan site they post some good material and connect to about every place that sells LT storage stuff.  Prepper (I think) is a really deep end of the well site with massive library of articles and info for anyone who wants to discover that prep process.  I comb and read just about everything posted on the web about metals, finance, prepping, tin hat stuff and other details.  If you stick with Doc’s reading list that will give you just about everything there is to study up on.   I have the good fortune to be able to devote several hours a day to complete my Phd in whatever all this stuff is that we blog on and there is little we miss.  If you do miss some minor items don’t stress.  One of us regulars will bring you up to speed  If anyone has a question there are 5 of us who will give you a data dump that you  can use.  The unfortunate part of this whole paradigm is that no one, absolutely no one can say when this will hit, the damage, how long it will last.  Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, seek some allies, and check the web.  At least all of us regulars will very likely see the evil coming our way some time in advance and be able to plan. Better to be 1 month early that 1 day late.

  11. “The ten largest debtor nations on earth have total debts of over 300% of World World GDP.”

    “There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.”

    “The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivativess…”

    “That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money. It is the big RESET.”

  12. Ah, I agree guys. I didn’t explain very well. The 3-12 months have cash on hand was just for the Bank Holiday and the run on banks. Your silver and food, meds, etc. is what will (hopefully) get you through the next few years. Your skills will be a big help too. Storing food is great. Although I have my foods, I have, for years, grown my own vegetables. I have no need to buy seeds as I save them from the previous years. Give a man a fish and he’ll eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he’ll eat for a lifetime. Can you garden, raise animals, hunt? Can you trade skills like plumbing, heating, electrical, carpentry, engine repair, electronic repair, medical tech, etc. This will go way beyond having cash and silver.

    P.S. Foods canned in glass jars and stored in a cool, dark place can actually last 5, 10 years and longer. Those stored in metals cans normally will go well beyond their “Use by “date. They will start to taste like the can but can be rinsed off to take some of the “can” taste away. This takes some skill and experience to tell what has gone bad though.
  13. This document is actually a pretty good piece to use for trying to wake-up our friends and relatives.  It’s written in an accessible form, and Raoul Pal is no lightweight.  The Zerohedge version makes that point well and you might want to crib from that one if you don’t know about Pal.Pal’s timeframe is similar to what many of us have had in the back of our minds.  But the sick thing is that it could all start as early as the end of this month, what with Greek elections, Iran/SWIFT, current bank runs already taking place and on and on — CLEARLY visible, right now.  I still think (hope) we have a number of months to prep.  But reading stuff like this feels about as comfortable as getting slapped upside the head with a radioactive tuna.427:  The global nature of this mess is a critical point.  There truly never has been a situation like this in human history.  We certainly can learn much from regional/country-specific breakdowns, with the crash of large empires offering a lot of insights in particular.  But our current situation is quite the mind bender.  The number of unexpected consequences upwelling from a system in crisis only rises in direct proportion to the size of the system.

  14. Wow!  An “edit” button I can see by the coin appearing after I post?  Cool.  Great to see that new feature, Doc.  Having been smacked upside the head by radioactive tuna, I certainly make my fair share of typos and mangled spelling. 

    Preppers, got to take joy from the little things in life 🙂

  15. Normal



    For what its worth…. I
    think the reset will be fairly fast…6 months tops as this is a crash that was “designed”
    to happen by the banksters, I have a funny feeling that when the bank holiday
    comes and all the Muppets get fleeced either by devaluation or default the new
    gold/ silver backed currency will be rolled out from the sidelines. Keep
    stacking silver, food and ammo. Good luck all.   

  16. Not to worry, the powers that be will globally implement a
    gold standard. However, they’ll need a little help. The Vatican will be
    delighted to help shore up the gold pool from their ancient catacombs in Italy
    in return for some “favors”. They’ll have a few minor conditions. That anyone
    that accepts their gold, pay tribute by not working on their ordained holy day
    each week. They may even consider a mark of some kind to make sure you’re on
    board with their “benevolence.” 
    They might even make ”inquiries” from time to time to make sure things
    are going as planned. People will be in such a panic they’ll be willing to
    accept almost any condition. The Vatican will be the world’s hero. Anti-greed, pro-morality…it will all sound very good.


    Just a thought of many anyway….

  17. Yeah, I suppose it is a lot like going down to the lake to fish, you either going to catch some fish or you’re going to return home sun-burned and empty handed. Hopefully we’re going to return home with plenty of fish at the end of the day despite all the uncertainty that’s heading our way. I believe it’s going to be an extremely difficult time for most of us, whether we own gold and/or silver or not. Maybe I am just day dreaming, but I personally want to see things such as truth, honest money, justice and liberty win at the end of the day… this does not include half-assed gold standards and Luciferian cork sucking.

  18. I only hope they wage adjust the power plant worker’s salaries, based on inflation.  Because this global reset is going to take MUCH longer without electricity.  Not to mention the water plants of the major cities.  Scary times living on this precipice.

    • The financial world as we know it is certainly about to morph and our lives no doubt will change dramatically but it’s always nice to know fishing will always be there. Stack the line, lures, baits, reels………not to mention the arms and the ammo. One needs to eat doesn’t one. Nice Pic! It put me into a really nice imaginary place, thanks SILVERBULLION.

  19. Luciferian Cork Sucking. LMAO SB. I think we’re likely to see water and power down temporarily Never Weaken. The gov. may even try to force them to stay at work and if that don’t happen they’ll bring in the military to take over plant operations (Civil Engineering Types). Stack and Prep. The big ugly is coming.

    The Big Ugly
  20. Today’s employment report, combined with the highly visible lunacy in Europe clears the way for QE-3 to be launched in public.  THAT, and the initial short-covering fiesta and temporary boost to animal spirits through the rest of 2012 will buy us all time to prep.  Use the time well.  A June crash isn’t likely if the powers that be decide to do a global coordinated printing fiesta, and I believe that’s going to happen in June.

  21. It’ll be bad for some Agent Blonde and not for others. Yes, we will recover and we stackers will have it less bad. I do, remember the stories my dad used to tell us about living through the depression. It was pretty ugly. However, those that knew how to grow their food and draw their own water did O.K. They couldn’t afford the luxuries of the rich but they survived. Worked hard and survived. My dad, his twin brother and four older brothers had to quit school and worked the cotton fields to help their parents make it through. My dad was 9 years old at the time. That’s pretty ugly. You are right though, wipe out the parasite and suffer some while you recover, then, boom time is likely. If you can survive without the I-Pad, cell phone, big screens, electricity, etc. and not go nuts, well, you’ll be fine and so will everyone else. So, shorting humanity will not happen because our will is strong and we will not roll over and perish. Stack on my brother.


    2 OZ.

    2 OZ. June 2, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    Got a lot of log splitting to do so I’ll off line ’til tomorrow. Gotta have firewood for the winter. Friends on the way to help. See ya’ll on Sunday for all the updates.


    Nice rig brother 2 oz

    some of us have other stacking to do ………before da snow flies ehhhhhh

    some of my stacking is still 100+ ft straight up……..LOL


  23. 100 ft’. Wow Yooper. Yeah, does get cold up there. I’ll keep my stack of wood lower to the ground but substantially long. LOL. Get’s cold here to and the snow will fly. Not as cold and deep as where you are but cold enough. Laid down several trees too for next year.

  24. For such a complex issue like the financial world is going to end, this presentation sure is short sided and simple.  I remember reading this on zerohedge and came away unimpressed to say the least.  It’s not that the information isn’t valid but it’s hard to take this serious when two sentences fill a single page.  Ok, default happen in clusters.  They happen rapidly and suddenly.  The derivative market is so over leveraged that it makes your mind spin.  The bond market, especially the US treasuries are in the biggest bubble ever because of Zirp, QE and all the other central bank interventions.   Tell us something we haven’t figured out.  This isn’t a revelation.  The problem is timing not the end game.  There is a weird thing happening on these sites.  It’s almost this rooting interest in the destruction of the world because we understand more then the average Joe on the streets.  This “I told you so” mentality is really getting odd.  If this global destruction happens like some are predicting, there will be nobody around to brag about how smart we are.  The death and nature of the world will be unlivable for months, years, or decades.  Do we really need to have a rooting interest in this event?  I still am holding out some kind of hope to find a reasonable way out of this mess.  The possibility of this happening is not good.  I do understand that but the alternative means millions if not billions die because of this event.  The wars and massive civil unrest would spread to all countries not just the US.  This PM, food, guns, and all the prep work is good.  But I do feel that some people will almost feel let down if they can’t utilize their survival skills and preparation.  They have been anticipating this moment for years.  I’m not implementing everyone on this site but there are several people who want this event to happen but they really don’t understand what it means.  This goes into this optimism bias theory.  Everything will be fine for me and my family since I have gold and silver, food, guns, ammo and survival skills.  Everyone else is fucked.  Well, that theory is plain wrong.  If things get this out of control, I don’t care if you own a tank, stealth bomber, or the millennium falcon because you won’t be safe. 

    • Well said duckvision and good video also. I’m very optomistic and the things I do to help with my survival is based on what’s happening in the world today. I also feel very strongly Spiritually that I can change my outer conditions from within because I am Divine Spirt and an Individualization of God as everyone else is but the only difference is. I know it.

    • I must tell you this Marchas45,
      that philosophy sounds more like Masonic/Shriners/New Age philosophy than what God’s Word says. The Bible is clear, you and I are not God nor divine, we are rebellious sinners at enmity with God, which is why God sent His Son to shed His sinless blood for our sins.
      Like that old time hymn goes: “Only a sinner, saved by grace, only a sinner, saved by grace, this is my story, to God be the glory, I’m only a sinner, saved by grace”.
      Romans 3:23: For all have sinned and come short of the glory of God.
      Isaiah 14:14 (Lucifer’s evil decision which led to to become God’s enemy): I will ascend above the heights of the clouds; I will be like the most High.
      I John 1:10: If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us.
      Romans 3:10-11: As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one:There is none that understandeth, there is none that seeketh after God.
      John 3:16-18: For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. He that believeth on him is not condemned: but he that believeth not is condemned already, because he hath not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God.

    • I dunno, DV, maybe I’m just not seeing it.  Most everyone I know who preps would GLADLY not have a SHTF situation happen.  It’s a lot like buying cancer insurance.  Yeah, you buy it but you also hope to God you never need it.  As in ALL groups, sure, there will be a few who are praying for SHTF to happen.  OK, so?  They do not represent the entire group and their opinion is just that… theirs.
      Other than a genuine SHTF situation, there are many possible scenarios wherein being prepared to live for a few weeks or even a couple of months on our own could be a very good thing.  Those who have gone through the hurricanes and tornadoes for the past couple of years probably have some great insight into this.  Nope, I am not hoping for one of them to come along either.  But… if one does, it will be WAY better to have some preps than to not have them; especially for those in my family who do not prep.  Just sayin’.

    • Proverbs1616 No I’m not Masonic and please, please, please, let me have my Religious Freedom and what I believe. Yes I believe in Jesus Christ and Jesus also said, God Is Within You. Now with that being said, please refrain from judging others especially me. Thank You, Charlie  End of Discussion

    • Ed B-  It’s not the people who are not preparing, it’s the people who are preparing for a total collapse.  There is a small minority of people who have realized that the situation is bad economically, socially, politically, and spiritually.  Within this small minority of people that are preparing for a collapse, I believe some have a rooting interest of a systematic brake down to happen.  Look at all the reality shows, youtube channels, websites, and products being produced in this industry.  It’s becoming a marketing tool just like anything else.  People don’t spend hours and money on products not to want to use them.  Some people are making bomb shelters and buying food that can last up to 30 years.  They have spend so much of their resources to have this event to happen that I believe they will be disappointed if it doesn’t.  My main problem with that is reality will be just as distorted with these types as it is with the people who believe the economy and the political system is fair and worthy.  Both are at the extremes.  To prepare for a collapse is totally legit in my book after studying and reading all these articles and watching hours of videos.  I truly believe the situation is bad.  But I also think that there is a section of people who are looking to tell people “I told you so.”  They want to be right more then seeing that the situation will cause millions if not billions to die.  It’s kind like this self-fulling prophecy element in society.  That’s why I see this as another hook by the people who control the aspects of our lives.  They are putting this doom and gloom reality in our society.  If they really wanted to change the situation, they would bring more uplifting and positive stories to come up with solution to these problems.  I posted that Chris Hedges video because he really explains what war and death is and what it looks like.  It’s not the war and death we see in movies and on TV shows.  It’s pain, suffering and heart breaking shit.  I could only try to imagine what it would take to kill someone.  That reality would become very real if this situation comes into play.  Are you ready for something like that?  Personally, I’m not and it scares the shit out of me.  I’m also not ready to watch children get bused to camps or taken from their families.  Emotionally, I couldn’t handle seeing a event like that.  All the guns, ammo, food, water, PM will not prepare you for those type of moments.  That is the reason why I don’t think some of the preppers are looking at this situation in the right manner.  It’s ok to be prepared with supplies but it’s the emotional factor that you can’t prep for.  These people need to be careful for what they wish for.  I still hold out some type of hope for a resolution or diplomacy to stop this from happening.

    • “Within this small minority of people that are preparing for a collapse, I believe some have a rooting interest of a systematic brake down to happen.”
      That’s OK.  A similar minority still thinks that the Earth is flat.  It isn’t and no amount of belief on their part will make it so.  Yes, I understand what you are saying but do not believe that the thoughts or actions of a tiny minority is all that significant in the over-all scheme of things.  Their hoping for whatever end they envision is their problem, not ours.
      “People don’t spend hours and money on products not to want to use them.”
       Perhaps.  Fortunately, I do not seem to know anyone who is in this minority.  Everyone I know looks at their preps as insurance that could come in handy at some point but that if it doesn’t, then so be it.  At the very least, food and other useful things that we have will be good inflation hedges.  If you’re saying that some carry this to extremes, I agree.  This is always the case with a few, no matter the issue.
      “Some people are making bomb shelters and buying food that can last up to 30 years.”
      Yes, some are and I am fine with that if that is what they want to do.  It’s their time and resources they are spending.  Anyone who has ever lived in tornado country will instantly recognize a “bomb shelter” as a storm cellar.  Anyone who raises at least part of their own food will recognize a bomb shelter as a root cellar.  Also, as we all know, there is no guarantee that bombs won’t be falling someday.  Seems to me like a multi-purpose shelter.  But then, I am in the generation that had nuclear attack drills at school each month and watched as the Cuban Missile Crisis unfolded on our radios and B&W TVs.  I would agree that this is probably not a highly likely event but it also is not impossible.
      “My main problem with that is reality will be just as distorted with these types as it is with the people who believe the economy and the political system is fair and worthy.  Both are at the extremes. ”
      I agree but tend to have a live and let live attitude.  If that is what they want to do and they aren’t harming others with their efforts, they are welcome to have at it, IMO.
      “To prepare for a collapse is totally legit in my book after studying and reading all these articles and watching hours of videos.  I truly believe the situation is bad.”
      This is your conclusion after doing research on the subject and I happen to agree with it.  But this does not in any way invalidate a different conclusion that someone else has reached after doing their research.  None of us knows the future. We are all trying our best to respond to that uncertainty.  Some of us will likely be right and some not.  Until we get to whatever the future has in store for us, the issue remains undecided.
      “But I also think that there is a section of people who are looking to tell people “I told you so.”  They want to be right more then seeing that the situation will cause millions if not billions to die.”
      Most of us would see them as VERY small individuals, if that is truly how they feel and think.  Still, their perception of reality does not create the reality that all of us share.
      “It’s kind like this self-fulling prophecy element in society.”
      If they had any power over anyone else, it is possible, however unlikely, that they might alter the future in favor of their perceptions.
      “That’s why I see this as another hook by the people who control the aspects of our lives.”
      There are many possible “hooks” but they all seem to have at least one thing in common.  In order for them to be dangerous, we HAVE to bite on them.  My solution is not to bite.  To do my own research, make up my own mind, and then implement my own plan to deal with what I view as the most likely future problem.  I could be right or wrong in this but am doing the best that I can with what I have, whatever happens.
      “I posted that Chris Hedges video because he really explains what war and death is and what it looks like.  It’s not the war and death we see in movies and on TV shows.  It’s pain, suffering and heart breaking shit.”
      Indeed it is.  This is, or should be, obvious.  War IS horrible and not a bit glorious.  The only reason most engage in it is so that they and their loved ones do not have to live under the boot of tyranny and be ground into the dust by it all their remaining days with no hope.  THAT would be worse than war, IMO, a LOT worse.
      “Are you ready for something like that?”
      A loaded question, for sure.  Unless one has already been in combat, the usual tendency is for those who are not is to say that they are and for those who are to say that they are not.  I will defend my family without hesitation.  That decision has already been made, so no time will be wasted on it if that time ever comes.  I truly hope that it never comes but that will not prevent me from defending those whom I love as best I can.   If that costs me my life, then so be it.  I really can’t think of a better way to spend it.
      “Emotionally, I couldn’t handle seeing a event like that.  All the guns, ammo, food, water, PM will not prepare you for those type of moments.  ”
      All we can do is what we can do.  IMO, it is a waste of time to worry about a lot of things that we can’t know the answers to until they happen.  As with much else in life, all we can do is our best.  Perhaps a bigger and worse problem will be recognizing a deadly force situation while there is still time to respond to it successfully.  Success in such things does not necessarily mean a shoot-out.  There may well be other possibilities, including E&E.
      “These people need to be careful for what they wish for.”
      As my Gram used to say, “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”.
      “I still hold out some type of hope for a resolution or diplomacy to stop this from happening.”
      I would think that all civilized people would share in this hope, whether prepping or not.  That does not mean, however, that a lot of us are prepared to tolerate foreign troops on our soil without resisting them as part of any “diplomatic” solution.  I know that you are not suggesting this but mention it as a possible diplomatic outcome that some might think is OK.

    • Ed B-“Within this small minority of people that are preparing for a collapse, I believe some have a rooting interest of a systematic brake down to happen.”
      That’s OK.  A similar minority still thinks that the Earth is flat.  It isn’t and no amount of belief on their part will make it so.  Yes, I understand what you are saying but do not believe that the thoughts or actions of a tiny minority is all that significant in the over-all scheme of things.  Their hoping for whatever end they envision is their problem, not ours.
      Small minoritiy of people can have a huge influence on the majority.  Many militia groups have been formed to change perception and direction of many different movements.  There were small group in every war and social uprising in history.  It first takes a few to change the whole.  Here is just a few examples.
      Just because the numbers are not great doesn’t mean this small groups can’t become powerful and influential.  Look at the Weather Underground.  They were a very small group of people who wanted to change the direction of the government at all costs.

      Now to compare preppers with these psychos is not my point.  My main point is that perception can become reality very quickly.  It doesn’t take a huge percentage to change the masses.  This even goes into the PM movement.  I constantly see posts and comments about  a 2% increase of the population in the US goes into the PM, the shortages of the physical metal would become instantly tight. This would cause prices to explode. So just a small amount of people need to start stacking the metal to get this physical shortage going.  That isn’t a big change in direction to have a major event to happen.
      “But I also think that there is a section of people who are looking to tell people “I told you so.”  They want to be right more then seeing that the situation will cause millions if not billions to die.”
      Most of us would see them as VERY small individuals, if that is truly how they feel and think.  Still, their perception of reality does not create the reality that all of us share.
      I think the people like Christopher Greene, Fabian for Liberty, Alex Jones, RT, and the other youtube so-called stars can slowly change people perceptions.  Look at how many hits they generate especially in the last few years.  Many more people are gravitating towards the alternative media outlets.  IMO, this is a good thing.  I think we can all agree that the MSM is full of shit and a alternative source is needed.   My problem is that some of these people have zero credibility and are not even in the industries that they speak of.  They have never held a public position in government or they have never been in finance.  People actually are taking them as “experts” or “professionals.”  IMO, the alternative media is needs to held to a better and higher standard.  Just because they say some things that are truthful doesn’t mean they don’t have a agenda.  They have a responsibility and journalistic standards need to held up.  This started off to be a small group of people but now it’s becoming more mainstream.  The alternative media can become just as corrupt and powerful as the MSM in the near future.

  25. Outside the Eurozone and a few others that don’t issue their own currencies or have huge foreign debts in currencies other than their own, default would be a political decision.
    It may come to that, but predicting it on any fundamental economics basis is not possible. A government’s “debt” in its own currency exactly equals nett private sector financial wealth.
    Don’t let the Austrians fool you into believing that government finance is like a household. Households don’t print their own currency.

    • Well, we certainly have a great view these days of the countries that can print their own money vs. those that can’t.  IMO, being able to print their own money only delays the inevitable when they are being financially irresponsible.  All of the countries that failed and collapsed could print their own money too.  Got any $100T Zimbabwe or $100B Weimar Mark bank notes in your stash?  Probably not since they are worthless except as paper monuments to financial irresponsibility.
      A household and a government have much in common, certainly more than most recognize.  If individuals do something that is financially dumb, doing the very same thing writ large does not make it smarter; it just makes it larger.  The USSR found out all about confusing economics with politics.  They thought that they could control everything and that political edict trumped economics. They were wrong.  The fact is, when countries do things that work politically but not economically, they too will fail.  It will take longer than it does for an individual but it is just as inevitable.

    • Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany had major debts in foreign currencies. The USSR didn’t collapse for currency reasons. That’s just silly.
      Ig not printing currency is such a good idea then the eurozone would be thriving compared to sovereign countries. How’s that working out?

    • “Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany had major debts in foreign currencies.”
      What they had was hyperinflation due to massively printing more money than their economic productivity could justify.
      “Ig not printing currency is such a good idea then the eurozone would be thriving compared to sovereign countries. How’s that working out?”
      First of all, the EU is pretty much a gaggle that has great difficulty doing much of anything substantive these days.  The US seems intent on emulating them for some unknown reason.  Second, don’t for a moment think that the EU is not printing currency.  They are but they are being more subtle about it than the US is.  With them, it is mostly about the sovereign bonds and how they handle them.  Lots of these bonds are owned by banks in other EU countries, so there is a great desire to protect the financial interests of those banks in order to protect their own home economy, employment, exports, etc.
      As to the USSR, they collapsed because they thought that politics was more important than economics and that they could simply command their economy to work.  They couldn’t.

  26. duck vision
    Thank you for putting up this video.
    This is an elegant overview of what we all suffer from on a regular basis, particularly our hopes the precious metals will double or triple next year or having enough of what it takes to weather whatever storm comes our way This post was put up in May 2012. Just the fact that we are still here, alive, well and healthy (Mayans nothwithstanding) means our attempts to foretell the future are pretty weak.    I would have given odds that we would have been much worse off that we are today and spent a  lot of FIAT to avoid what seemed unavoidable.
       As for optimism bias, I think most of us are generally pretty optimistic but likely overestimate our abilities to foresee troubles that could affect us or others close to us.  How we deal with serious problems, like the ones that afflict  Greece and Spain now, should give us some pause to adjust our plans and predictions.  Planning for the worst is endless and frustrating.  Hoping for the best leaves us dangerously unprepared.  Something in the middle is probably the best solution.  Otherwise we can be consumed with concern that we have done the right thing.  Even being all in with precious metals can be worrying. Not being all in is even more of a concern. LOL

    • I like this topic and the video(she not bad looking either).  I watched the latest Kyle Bass and he mentioned optimism bias.  I looked it up and found this video on youtube.  I found it very interesting.  I appreciate everyone’s opinion on all these subjects.  It’s nice to find a place where ideas and discussions are freely expressed.  I feel a real crunch of educating myself in a short amount of time.  I was in this comma for 35+years of my life.  Just recently I feel like I was born again to all this new information about the world.  It’s awesome in a good and bad way.  Whatever happens in the far or near future, the human spirit will not be matched.  The will to live and survive is not measurable.  The willingness and the good in people will not end.  Hope is a good thing if not the greatest of all things.  It keeps us going to strive for a better and more productive future.  I see really stupid shit almost everyday but I will not give up hope on humanity.  This problem can be solved without death and destruction.

  27. mryuri:  Let’s face it, shall we.  Common sense now in this era of fraud, deceptive/inept government, greed, etc, dictates that YOU MUST HOLD YOUR PMs or YOU DON’T OWN IT, P E R I O D!!!!!!!!!!!
    I’m not suggesting Bullion Vault or any other entity out there is less than 100% honest.  What I AM saying is that if you can’t look at it and put it in your pocket, you don’t have zip!

    • Agreed.  My problem with Bullion Vault, Gold Money, and other similar ventures is that they are all perfectly fine BEFORE the SHTF.  But what about AFTER?  If they have to make a choice between watching their kids starve and ripping off what is in their vaults, we ALL know full well what choice they will make.

  28. duck vision  Keep bringing your thoughts to this site and you’ll get ten fold in educational returns.
    I like Winston Churchhill.  He might have been the greatest optimist in human history.  When he was asked why he could retain his optimism in light of the terrible suffering of the British people in World War II,  he said that viewing the long course of human history and the steady upward progress of the human condition, he saw the WWII period as a small blip (my words) in the continuingupward momentum.

  29. Strangely I think we might be seeing signs of the end game right now.  I haven’t been able to buy large quantities of 5.56 ammo for weeks.  I ordered some 223 but its on backorder and delayed at least another 40 days!  I guess I won’t be plinking any time soon… I’m down to “emergency reserves” of only a few thousand rounds of each calibre.
    The S is hitting the fan now … people just don’t realize the brown splatter thats raining down on them in the form of “optimistic that we’ll have a fiscal cliff deal” bull-$#&@! is in fact that sh*t.  How long will it take for people to realize that this may well be that firecracker that caused the big bang?  Well, they probably wont realize it until history books are written.  Most people are so ingrained in the system and dependent upon it that they cannot see the forest ….

  30. I stole this from Brother Johns site and it was linked from
    This is a video of Chris Hedges.  He is so smart and articulate.  It goes more into the social decay of our society but it’s totally relevant of seeing things breakdown.  Kinda long but it’s worth your time.  This video has been around for a couple of years so I’m sure some of you have watched it already.


  31. saddle  one suggestion.  223 is hard to find–copy on that.  magazines for that caliber ditto. I’ve seen a doubling of price in rifles of that caliber.
    Try 7.62×39.  has limited supply of 600 round ammo cans.   they will take 2-3 weeks delivery. 
    I like that caliber too.   cheaper than 223/5.56,  good to 500 yards with optics, great close-in round, more power than 223, handles LAVs.
       100,000,000 satisfied users can’t be all wrong. AK and SKS are first rate rifles, easy to clean and run, cheaper than AR 15 and M4s  Just saying. 
    Good to have diversity in blasters.

    • Could not agree more, AG.  My son is a huge AR fan.  As a former Marine this is understandable.  When I bought a rifle last year it was a Saiga AK variant.  I like the much bigger bullet of the AK vs. the AR.  It is cheap to feed, easy to clean, etc.  It really is a simple design.  Best of all, it is a legal deer hunting rifle in my state while the .223 is not.  We have a .24 cal. minimum.  On top of all that, with it’s all black finish and curved 30 round mag it is just one mean lookin’ mofo that says, “YOU do not want ANY of THIS!”.  😉

  32. Great insights from all. Optimist or Pessimist? Hmmmmmmmm! I think Saddle HTNOTH (Hit the nail on the head). We are very likely in the end game even as we converse here. I’ll go back in time when this has happened many times before and try to survive it like our ancestors. You can’t run or hide but you can prepare according to your surroundings. Stack the PM’s. Have the weapon of your choice and know how to use and maintain it.  Know how to get or produce clean and potable water. Be able to grow, store and obtain your own food. Shelter will be critical whether it’s a tent or a house. Companionship and like minds will provide protection and a reason to carry on. Be sure to have med’s and /or the knowledge to use natural sources (Can you say Willow Tree bark has aspirin like qualities?) Above all, in my case, I believe in my maker and no matter what happens I’ll be ready. By the grace of God, I am saved through Jesus and while I intend to carry on here on earth for as long as possible, I’ll be ready when my day to leave here has come.
    In the mean time, I will will not lie down and cower in the face of any enemy or situation. I like living and enjoying friends and family and so will do all the above plus more to have another day!
    Keep your eyes open and your hearts true and strong. The challenges will be great but so are all of you. Carry on!

      Raoul Pal has previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world.
      Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. Other stop-off points on the way were Natwest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.
      Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes for The Global Macro Investor. In 2008, Raoul also helped design the TV programme Million Dollar Traders for the BBC, and trained the participants in investment and risk management strategy. His articles have appeared several times in the press and he has also taken part in TV interviews.

  33. @Ed_B, funny you mentioned “Got any $100T Zimbabwe or $100B Weimar Mark bank notes in your stash?
    –  –  –  –  –  –  –  –  –  –
    Although I do not have any of those, I DO have a couple of 10,000 Ruble bank notes.  I keep these as a reminder to stack something more tangible than paper.
    And as to the former USSR mixing politics with economics – good thing we do not do this here in America.  Ha ha!

    • “Although I do not have any of those, I DO have a couple of 10,000 Ruble bank notes.  I keep these as a reminder to stack something more tangible than paper.”
      Whoa, awesome!  I can see where having those would be quite a reminder.  I don’t have any of those but I do have some images of various failed currencies for the very same reason.  Worst thing we can hear on this is, “Well, it CAN’T happen here!”.  History shows pretty clearly that the places where the citizens are in denial are the only places where it CAN!
      “And as to the former USSR mixing politics with economics – good thing we do not do this here in America.  Ha ha!”
      Yeah, that failed BIG-TIME in the USSR, so let’s do it here!  Idiots.  lol    Seems as if we are getting more and more like the old Sovs and that was NOT a good example to follow.  We know how it worked for them and there is no indication whatever that we can do any better with it than they did.
      “Funny…when I first started my vehicle for the drive into work this morning, The Door’s Jim Morrisson was singing the song, “The End.””
      Besides… “It’s the end of the world as we know it… and I feel fine!”   😉
      Yeah, I know what you mean.  Sometimes I get a song on the brain while driving and can’t get rid of it.  Eventually I turn on the radio so something else will be playing, and, damn, that song will be playing on the radio too!  Weird stuff.

    • Politics and economics are the same beast. It was the British banking elite that turned them into separate disciplines. Since then economists have become disconnected political shills for big business.

      Enlightenment political economic thinkers aren’t studied at all in modern economics courses. And it shows. The best critique of capitalism is still Marx’s Kapital, but students are actively discouraged from reading it.

    • @someoneionceknew … not ALL economists have been shills. Consider Murray Rothbard as an example of exception to that general rule. The more ‘celebrated ‘modern Austrians’, like Mises, Hazlett, Hayek, etc., all allowed for paper ‘money’ circulation under strict governmental ‘management’, so one can say even THEY were ‘shills’, though to a far lesser degree. ‘Government management’ … Talk about a complete dichotomy of terms! Oxymoron only picks the surface of description.

    • Rothbard? Who do you think paid him?
      Government is a fact of life, and it issues the currency. The argument can’t be for or against government, it must be about good or bad government. 
      Is the government acting for the general welfare or not? The Austrian/Libertarians have it all upside down because they don’t understand macroeconomics, money creation or inflation.
      The good economists who won’t shill for the finance sector, don’t get tenure at the elite universities and they don’t get printed in the media. And the never get senior government roles. Big business would never allow it.

  34. Wow! Lot’s of interesting comments on this article. Here are my random thoughts based on what I have read. 
    1) Preppers are starting to emulate a “cult” mindset and that can be a very scary thing. Expect the governments to crack down on them during the coming financial crises. Preppers are already being vilified in the MSM.
    2) The financial systems around the world are moving, like molasses, towards a centrally controlled world financial system. This system will form out of the crisis that will be spawned by the unsustainable, and ultimately collapsing, derivative system based on debt. 
    3) The “new” world financial system will be an electronic system which, much like the current SWIFT system, will only allow access to those that “buy in” to it. Those that don’t “buy in” will be left to a black market or barter system and will become criminals in the new financial order.
    4) Those that “buy in” will be virtual slaves to it and transactions will be scrutinized and any activities will result in “elimination” or curtailment of activities. 
    5) Those that entertain the “fantasy” of the TBTF and central bankers getting brought up on charges should focus their energies elsewhere since that will NEVER happen. Perp walks only occur in a fair financial justice system. As we have seen over the last 5 years, that system is gone. Bad bankers only get promoted. 
    6) As long as the MSM is “owned” by corporations, the meme will be managed and truth will be marginalized until a black swan event occurs that effects the upper middle class out of their normalcy bias. Dreams of attaining the 1% status has to be thoroughly trashed before the reasonably affluent get the picture.
    So for 2013, I keep my eye on events, focus on my family and follow the philosophy that has kept me going for a half century…..”Hope for the best….expect the worst.”
    Happy New Year.

  35. Not Sure  good points.  Preppers are not in good repute with many.  Cultists?  Not really.  Doomsday preppers is kind of silly. Most people who are prepared realize that they are taking out a bit of insurance against unforeseen events, like Hurricane Sandy or an earthquake or flood.  We live in an area subject to snow, blizzards and avalances 6 months out of the year and have an active earthquake fault about a mile away.
    Ad for the electronization of FIAT, 50 million people have the SNAP and ETB food stamp cards administered by JPM.  That’s their life support.  Social Security,  SSI and Veterans Benefits go fully electronic March 2013.  Either you sign up for a direct deposit to a checking or savings account or you will receive a Direct Express debit card usable at all locations that accept MASTERCARD.    That is probably another 50 million roped into the age of EFT, Electronic FIAT Transfer. 
    Not that you couldn’t use your cards to purchase precious metals but there is probably a transaction record unless you pay cash.  These SS, SSA and Veteran cards can be used at the ATM but that requires some extra steps.  Just sayin’

    • Yeah, I guess I should have qualified the “cult” comment to the doomsday preppers. There are a lot of rational thinking people that prepare for unexpected events that are not over the top about it. And a certain amount of prepping should be done by EVERYONE so we don’t get a panic when natural disasters hit. However, that being said, when a disaster strikes, look for the LEO/rescue teams to come and tell you to evacuate or be arrested (i.e New Orleans). All the prepping will be for naught if and when that happens since all will have to be left behind. The alternative would have to be a shootout with the LEOs. How many are REALLY prepared for that?

  36. One of the things that got me tuned into having extra supplies is the threat of having to rely on the tender mercies of any form of government agency. One thing a prepared person does have is a Bug Out Bag, a means to provide an off site system for survival if you need to move quickly.  LEO will generally not force people to move except in extreme cases.  We lived in San Diego during the 2007 fire storms.  With 9 blazes going on 250,000 acres, 600,000 people were peacefully evacuated (The largest evacuation in the peacetime history of this country).  It could have been different.  My wife was out of town and so it fell to me to get out of our home, in the path of a fire storm.  The fire missed the home by 100 yards, much due to the efforts of a fire fighter neighbor who stayed and put down hot spots ete. We were completely unprepared for this but fortunately I had about 4 hours from fire start to bugging out to gather up everything of importance and value.  Pets had to stay since they were outside critters.  I found a local motel, stayed the night a sneaked back to our home past LEO and government road controls.  Animals needed to be fed.  I figured our home was still there since by calling my answering machine, it answered and that meant the home did not burn.
    This incident told me that we were woefully unprepared and completely unwilling to go with LEO and rescue workers to an evac location.  It’s called Survive in Place.  But a firestorm chases anyone out and I was one of them.  So we have 3-4 bug out bags in our home in the mountains.  Fire danger is constant, worse than Sou Cal.  The Sierras have millions of acres of dying dried out trees.  So I guess you could say we moved from the frying pan to the fire.  But we are prepped up for nearly any natural disaster. I am also a volunteer with LEO and local SAR teams.  That puts me on the other side of the badge and in the know if TSHTF.  That’s another part of being prepared that most people leave out, partly due to time contraints and  partly due to knowledge.  Check my prepper guide in the ‘best of’ to the right of these posts. It might be instructive.  Best regards to you in 2013

    PS As far as LEO goes, it would be a losing fight. According to the Ron White Rules of Fight School, if you don’t know how many they plan to bring, know this. They will bring enough. Our LEO arrives in full battle rattle, Tasers at the ready, if needed. I say ‘yes sir’
    I work with them but no need to arouse my fellow LEOs unnecessarily. KWIM

    • Thanks for that piece of your history. I like real world examples and that’s as real as it gets.
      You have hit upon the two most useful resources when the SHTF.
      1) The willingness to move on a moments notice and 
      2) an appropriately psyched and situationally/tactically agile brain.
      With those two attributes, there is a MUCH higher probability of survival. 

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