SilverFeb15DipBuyOver a 5 minute period from 10:32-10:37 AM Friday, a massive volume spike (approximately 40,000 contracts) coincided with silver’s waterfall to $29.75- a fairly common occurrence during major cartel silver raids.  
Astonishingly however, 2 minutes after silver marked it’s low at $29.75, approximately the same volume traded over the next minute– spiking silver .15 off it’s low.
It appears that a major buyer stepped in and took on the cartel at exactly 10:39 am on Friday 2/15 as nearly 40% of the day’s volume traded over a single minute.

To put this number in perspective, 200 million ounces is 26.2% of 2012’s world silver mine supply of 761 million ounces!

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Submitted by TraderStef

While waiting for another dip buy opportunity and keeping any eye on the Netdania FOREX Silver & Gold charts on Friday Feb 15, I believe I witnessed the ‘smart money’ flip to the long side in Silver and take on the cartel.

Following the usual stop-running paper smack down initiated just after 8am EST, a 40,000 contracts 1 minute buy volume spike (200,000,000 paper oz’s) appeared at a price level of $29.77 at 10:39 am EST. I’ve never seen such large contracts volume on the 1 minute charts. Definitely not chump change. Also, it was not too far above the 61.8% Fib retracement level (using the June 27 2012 low of $26.12 and the Sept 30th 2012 $35.38 high). 


Over a 5 minute period from 10:32-10:37 AM Friday, a massive volume spike (approximately 40,000 contracts) coincided with silver’s waterfall to $29.75- a fairly common occurrence during major cartel silver raids.  
Astonishingly however, 2 minutes after silver marked it’s low at $29.75, approximately the same volume traded over the next minute- spiking silver .15 off it’s low.   It appears that a major buyer stepped in and took on the cartel at exactly 10:39 am on Friday 2/15 as nearly 40% of the day’s volume traded over a single minute.
To put this number in perspective, 200 million ounces is 26.2% of 2012’s world silver mine supply of 761 million ounces!



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  1. No manipulation…nothing to see here folks, just move along please….
    What’s that saying – if you get a bunch of rotten apples, then you should make applesauce?
    Well seeing the price drop on Friday, I called the local coin seller (LCS) only to find that he was fresh out of Silver Dollars, so on the way home from work I stopped by another place and picked up five at $23/ea.

    • Bart Chilton and the CFTC are all over this. Expect them to conduct a lengthy expensive taxpayer funded study, with findings available in 2039.
      Jail Bart Chilton!

    • Lucky you! All of my local coin shops except for one charge taxes on gold and silver coins that are less than 99% pure which means that junk silver have taxes. The one local coin shop that doesn’t charge taxes sure does have good deals with junk silver but I don’t have enough cash for that since I’ve used all of my cash to buy as much pennies as I can.

  2. Its a trap. Someone has spiked the drink. Selling Dollars for silver and the suckers who bought the silver  took the bate. This is a great way of changing the price of the dollar in a single trade. Japan maybe? Give the dollars back to the Americans, store wealth in silver form and devalue the Yen. Sounds like great macro economics to me. The wealth of your nation is protected, but the value of your tradable unit has gone down.

    Why is it a spiked drink, because silver is going down. I would say to around £18.99 per troy OZ.

  3. I’m still musing … who the hell’s on the other sides of these trades? Are they governments ‘loading up’ on phantom ‘billion claims’ to ‘back’ their doomed banknotes? Ov course, they could also be other bullion banks taking ‘zero sum’ positions to take a turn at being the shorting agency on the NEXT ‘smash’, selling down to the original seller … this time as the ‘buying’ party. Wheeeeee, it’s a see-saw!

  4. And the CFTC doesn’t see anything wrong….open your eyes Bart!!! Oh, how silly of me, Bart’s eyes are open and he does see what’s going on…..he just refuses to do anything it!!!! Oh, how even more silly of me, it’s not that he won’t do anything about it…..he’s been instructed by his puppet-masters NOT to do anything about it!!!!!!!!!

    • Seems to me that Bart and the CFTC is a dead issue.  Thier hands are tied when it comes to manipulation of metals.  The consensus opinion now is that the Treasury dept is in charge of this manipulation and condones it as a matter of national security.  Central banks have the blessing and backing of The Treasury dept to keep monetary metals artificially low.  Our only hope is that this strategy fails eventually.  I believe that it is beginning to fail right in front of our eyes although is doesn’t feel that way.  When the time comes that the spec longs refuse to capitulate to raids, it will be the end of the scheme.  We still have to wait some more.  Jim Sinclair believes that this is the last huge ongoing raid.  He gets his information from private contacts and doesn’t make these kind of predictions lightly.  Why do you think Sinclair is crying out to investors to sit tight?  He is not really talking to us stackers.  We buy and hold anyway and always have.

      Just ‘cuz the CFTC don’t see nothin’……
      ……was right there watching it as it happened…fully expecting it…and did my duty with a smile on my face…
      In fact, it’s still there!

  5. I kinda think it is the commercials themselves, tripping the stops, cover some shorts, later in the day offering more shorts, but less than they covered.  Gradually decreasing their short position without any rise in spot.  They are clever rascals.

  6. @Marchas45–  Unlike others I don’t view the huge short position of the commercials as arrows in their quiver to do further damage, I view them as residue of yesterday’s battle.  A decreased short position opens their opportunity to short some more, see?  When they extricate themselves, THEN they have ammo for the next raid.  Here lately they have had to really ‘go to the mattresses’ as Clemenza would say, to keep a lid on this sucker during all this fiat printing and bad economic news.  Now they quietly reload by covering some.

  7. Who’s to say the “buyer” that stepped in wasn’t the cartel itself?  If you know where the bottom of every move is going to be, because you are the ones manipulating the price, why not pocket the $.15 on all those “ounces” yourself as the price moves off the bottom?  After all, didn’t you just make a bundle from all those levered shorts you just cashed out?

    • I agree.  But this is key: They aren’t in it strictly to make money in metals.  They are controlling metals so their other business ( a thousand times bigger) stays on track, and they carry out the wishes of the treasury dept. which keeps the CFTC off their backs.
      (Sorry for the babbling, I just felt like writing today.)

    • “why not pocket the $.15 on all those “ounces”
      Maybe because if they gain that much amount of dollars, they may become way more suspicious which will reveal the silver scandal to everyone around the world.

  8. Because of the paper market, they say about 100 oz of paper gold is sold for every ounce of physical.  Therefore, 200 million oz of paper sales amounts to a measley .26% of the amount of “paper selling” we’ll see this year.

    • After all it is a barbaric metal and really an instrument of the 12th Century.  How about $17?  I think the market is going to crash any moment so better act fast!

    • What makes you think like that? Right now, silver can drop to 30$ per ounce and it cannot go lower than that amount because it costs about 30$ to mine an ounce of silver due to gasoline’s price according to a trend line on silver’s chart. If silver’s prices go lower than the trend line, then mines will stop producing silver which will create silver shortages.

    • You’re right!
      I used to remember when that much amount of paper silver could have dropped silver’s price by about 5$ last year! This sign just shows how paper silver ounces are becoming useless to the real physical silver’s price.

    • You should be shorting the market if you believe that.  Please keep us advised about how that strategy is working for ya.  Maybe you are right.  I am open to a different point of view since this site seems to be populated with plenty of skeptical perma bulls.  Me being one of them.

    • Silver is Overpriced the man says…have you looked at sparkling water lately?! Or for that matter anything else… how about the depreciative vallue of the dollar at nearly 98% in the last hundred years. 1970 3 family brick home 35,500…salary per week 100 bucks
      Same home today same place 1 million bucks plus…salary 1,000 a week. I dont think we have to do the rest of the math here but while im on the subject i will. Salary has not risen commenserate with anything and money right now is worth .25% while real inflation is around 8%. Point is most are not cognizant of what is happening, the speed at which it is happening and to how many it will happen to.

    • So you’re saying that a precious metal that has a lot of industrial uses and demands is overpriced especially when it is only at about 30$ per ounce right now?

    • As I said before, if you believe that silver is worth half of what it is today, and you are a silver holder, than you should sell your silver.  Silver will find its true value only when the price suppression scheme fails.  It will take an enormous amount of faith and patience to endure the wait.  Doing nothing can be painful.  But, if you want to be part of the process, you got to wait.  For the moment, silver is still an insurance policy against financial disaster.  Even though we still have not seen silvers real value.  Those who are part of this community believe that inevitably the system will crash.  Just because we are in a very long holding pattern right now does not mitigate the value of holding precious metals.  What is silver’s real value?  We got to wait to find out the answer to that question.

    • To figure this you will need to look at the majors costs of producing an oz of silver.  It varies a lot with costs ranging from the upper-teen’s upwards to $30+ / ounce.  If silver is traded at $20 (as an example) you just closed most if not all silver producers in North America except for Mexico.  The only silver that would be produced is a by product of gold.
      If silver goes down to $10 or $15 (as you suggest) you’ve probably closed all silver producers in the world except for a couple small pockets in 3rd world countries. 
      However, the problem you have to get silver down to $10 or $15 / ounce you must also crash gold in a similar amount.   So gold goes to $500 to $800 / ounce.  This would close all gold mines in developed countries except for a few low cost stragglers that try to hang on.
      Investments into the metals would drop off like a rock.  Gold and silver production goes to a trickle. 
      Other metals like copper and nickel would need to follow this price plunge.  The sector collapses into a panic sell creating mass layoffs and equipment order cancellations.  Electronic and car manufacturers are now scrambling for the above ground supply since mining output plummets below required output.
      Anyway, I just don’t see this happening without going into a full worldwide depression where fiat currencies rapidly advance in value.

    • Pollo/Silverman : You know that the cost to mine, refine and bring to market one ounce  of silver today is $30.  The miner/producer must sell it at no less than $32.50/oz to stay in business. This s the real PRICE today.  Speculating on what the real VALUE is  based on future assumptions  , is a waste of time. Ask: How much could I sell it for today if I had to?  Answer:  around $28-$29

    • It’s hard to say because normally, the price of silver should be calculated by dividing the US dollar supply with the number of ounces of silver available in the market which gives you the price of silver per ounce. Today, the silver’s market is filled with junk paper silver that are not backed by real physical silver which is why silver is undervalued.

      Silverman, you are either missing the point if you are asking the “real price” in USD for an ounce, or you are not asking the question you mean to be asking.

      Boiled down to four words: paper goes to zero.

      This implies commentators who engages in dollar denominated price-forecasting are only making “short-term” estimates for gold and silver prices.  Metals prices may be undervalued based on fundamentals or suppression, but prices cease to have meaning when the currency denominating the price has no value.  When paper reaches zero, this necessarily implies that the “price” of gold and silver in such a worthless currency is literally infinite.

      $1 $10 $100 $100,000 $100,000,000,000,000 / oz

      The numbers are meaningless because of this: USD$

      If you think $100,000,000,000,000/oz Au/Ag is stupid high, try denominating it in ZIM$


  9. Real price for 1 oz?
    Whatever one will pay for that oz. But get away from the price that is not why I stack, it’s the value. I stack for survival and when the SHTF you will be glad that your $15.00 oz will help you immensely 10 fold. Don’t put a price on your value, just be glad you have it.
    If you check the threads you will find out the true value of that oz when it comes to mining it. Lol By the way the dollar is losing value. Lol

    • If you have to talk price then the answer is, MANIPULATION by the Banksters and the Cartel. If you believe that the Economy is going to crash then Stack but if your in it for profit then hold onto your ass because your in for a rough ride.
      Most Stackers I know are Stacking Silver for Survival and Preserving Wealth and not only do they Stack Silver but they also Stack anything that will help them through the rough times WTSHTF.
      WTSHTF do you truly believe the dollar will be worth anything?

    • There are plenty of sources of information that give reasons for silvers crash from 49 to 30.  A little research on your part will provide a myriad of answers.  I don’t have the answer except that silver went up to far too fast.  Parabolic moves in silver will almost always overshoot and then a correction will usually occur.  It should be a clear lesson to all of us that we should only accumulate on dips.  I believe that we will see more corrections in the future.  If silver was to touch 49 again this year I am sure this would be followed by a sharp retreat.  Maybe back to 40.  Keep that in mind as you invest.  The price is going to be all over the place before this is over with.  Silver is a small market and will have extreme volitility.  Not for the faint of heart. 

  10. Thank you. But anyway; with my small knowledge ..the bull market is on the way…in 1980..silver and gold goes parabolic..reasons..
    – manipulation/ Hunt brothers
    – inflation about 10 %
    – invasion…Russian  army in Afganistan..
    I am pozitive that this bull market must end with parabolic rise..

  11. In years past gold and silver were considered stores of wealth, and that they would keep their value as the currency was debased.  Clearly, the Federal Reserve and the bullion cartel can decouple the price of gold and silver from the rate of inflation (and supply and demand for physical metal), making the old paradigms worthless.  At least for the time being.  I’m not saying this can go on forever, but it seems to be able to go on for lot longer than the experts realize or admit.

  12. If anybody tries to offer a prediction of future price movements by showing historical charts, they should be laughed off the stage. The manipulation of PM prices is so blatantly obvious, and has become so illogically de-hooked from inflation realities, that it is only a fools errand to talk up charts.  I’ll be watching!

  13. There seems to be an underlying assumption on behalf of the contributors to this site  and many others as well, that they are going to live forever, therefore price does not matter. Either that or they intend to line their caskets with their precious metals when they die or they will pass the metals on to their children/grandchildren.  Therefore price does not matter.
     I for one, do not have such luxury of perspective.  I will of necessity be required to SELL my metals at some point to survive the future. Therefore PRICE at the time of sale will be immensely important.. It is immensely important right at this very moment  Moreover it is quite amazing how many folks have managed to convince themselves otherwise. Rarely have I heard anyone state this for themselves.Whether or not the metals will have held their value as we are constantly reminded, is an absolute unknown and cannot be relied upon.

    • Hey John!  Of course price matters.  I have met persons in real life like Marchas45 who truly believe that price doesn’t matter.  They are living for the day the dollar dies.  I for one do not subscribe to that train of thought.  The dollar is king right now.  Our silver is denominated in dollars whether we like it or not.  Those people that believe otherwize can keep that train of thought if they want to.  But it does them no good when it is time to sell metals when they are short of those “worthless dollars”.  I was early to the table and bought silver at too high a price.  Now I have to live with it.  And wait for silver to recover in order to receive the utility of my so called “worthless dollars”.  I could be waiting for a long time to break even on an investment that was supposed to be protecting me.  So anyone who says that cash is trash, and price of metals does not matter, will have no conversation or anything in common with me.  If the dollar did not matter Doc certainly would not be trading his valuable silver coins for worthless dollars.  In fact, right now, I could take my valuable silver coins to the store and leave the store empty handed because I had no worthless currency to trade with.  The paradigm has not changed yet.  Until it does, fiat is still king.  Sorry Marchas45.  You are just wrong. 

    • So that you can get more ounces of physical silver with only a few pieces of fiat paper. The goal here is to get as much ounces of silver as you can get before it’s too late and the dips make that opportunity bigger!

  14. Looking over today’s NetDania chart, I set it on half-hour increments, and from 8 to 9 AM, they traded more than a year’s production (on paper of course), to drop it back below $30.
    It is either short covering on the not-so-sly (between noon and 1) or it’s on like Donkey Kong. Either way, the strength at $30 is phenomenal.
    I’m starting to like it.  Like benchmarking a computer system, silver is being sorely tested, and hanging very tough.

    • Actually no, my cost average is around $17 right now even though it’s not that important to me or shouldn’t be to you and I’m above water as you say but that doesn’t concern me as it does you. Like I said I’m doing it for value and survival not price. You do it for Price, I do it for Value, end of story. I won’t convince you, you won’t convince me.
      Material things are God given in my mind. No Price. Hope you understand.

    • That is a great point.  I only know one person right now that is not underwater on his silver and that is because he has been stacking for many years. He only buys the dips and is incredibly patient.  Almost everyone who has bought silver in the past 18 months is now underwater.  Especially newbies.  Especially if you include costs like the spread and shipping.  Where I live, the spread is 15 to 20%.  Makes it tough on silver investors here.  And, the market is thinly traded here as well.  Price certainly does matter and silver is not a get rich quick scheme and it is very easy for a newby to buy into strength right before a correction occurs.  Very easy.  Ask those new investors if price matters.  Certainly it matters.  The cartel knows all this and they want us demoralized and they are doing a very good job of it. 

    • Believe me, everyone is aware of that.  Since it is trading at Christmas 2010 prices, virtually all the silver bought since then is ‘underwater’.  A good description, it calls to mind the old ‘beach ball held under’ analogy.  Other commodities held their gains from the last few years except silver.  This proves the market is phoney on its face.  To lower that DCA, the best thing to do is to buy some moar right now.

  15. @silverrrrr, the LCS only had eight Silver Dollars left; I picked the five best ones.  While in the coin shops, I also chat & BS with the proprieters to build some camaradie.  Then I slip them my phone # and ask them to give me a phone call when they buy their next coin collection, in the hope that I will be the first customer who gets to pick through it.
    –  –  –  –  –
    @JOHN IN PHILADELPHIA, of course he purchase price matters.  Interestingly enough, Turd at ran the mumbers and found out that if you regularly, over the course of time, buy a certain dollar-amount of Silver, then in the same time period you will come out with more Silver for your dollar than if you instead bought the same weight at regular intervals
    Having purchased before, during and after the April 2011 peak in Silver prices, I have paid up to $35 for Silver Dollars, so I am quite happy to be getting them for $23 now.  But I also was buying them for $17 when I first started, back in 2008. Difficult to time the market but also difficult to resist buying when Silver is under $30/oz.

  16. Here’s an idea that might settle some concerns about stacking.  Think of buying silver, dips or otherwise, and doing so on a regular dollar cost averaging basis.  The price of silver could be compared to buying a particular stock on a Dividend Reinvestment Program (DRIP).  Silver can pay dividends if you find and sell a particularly valuable bit of junk bullion worth more than its JB silver value.  Silver can pay dividends if a small portion is sold when the market is supportive of a certain coin such as a Morgan that is priced of just desireable due to its price spread.  If you coin roll and find some 40% silvers in a roll, such as a 1965 to 1970 half dollar thats presently worth about $4.50.  That dividend is a return on knowledge and labor.
    Silver’s return has been pretty decent in the last 10 years, going up on average 20% per year.  It’s retraced it steps severely in 2008 and 2011 but still represents a decent return, much like a solid value stock.  Given time, 5-10 years, the return should revert to the mean of the last 10 years.
    If 10 years is to long a time period but there is a reasonable return, investing in precious metals can give a person a means to recovery the FIAT spent to buy silver, concerting to currency for living costs and other obligations.
    If you believe that the cost of producing silver and its demand to supply curve is upwards, this is a means to hedge one’s bets in a uncertain world, just like stocking food and water in case of rough times.

  17. Since when is Netdania recording Comex volume? (ie, 5,ooo oz contracts). Netdania gets its data feed from the Interbank Market…they are single oz trades. Ask them.
    Anyway, that price action looks like short covering for profit. Wash, rinse & repeat.

    • Who said Comex?  It’s not just the Comex, it monitors the Forex, Foreign Exchange, which is basically global. 
      The units for trade in Forex futures contracts are not single ounces.  
      “Hello, Izzi?  I want to place a bid – 5 ounces in March at 29.90…”-  I don’t think so.  


  18. Only 200 million ounces of paper silver to just lower silver’s price by a dollar? That’s nothing! I remember about a year ago when that much amount paper silver could have crush silver’s price by about 5$! Anyway on the bright side, we have more opportunities to stack more silver cheaply, easily and faster! 😀

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