JP MorganHedge funds smell blood in the water,” and will likely make sure stops are run below $1179…probably Monday morning.”
“We’ve seen a lot of manipulation in the gold market over the last year & so
I expect we’ll probably see one of those middle of the night hits, where they dump a million contracts on the market, so that when traders wake up in the morning their stops are already run…We may have another move, something similar to what happened in April, where the bottom just drops out.
I think we’re probably going to test that 2007 c-wave top at $1030, and that’s the point where I think every short will cover and we will get our final bear market bottom…and that’s the point where you can back up the truck.”

 

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By Tekoa da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:

I had the chance to reconnect this week with technical gold trader Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world’s hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.

It was a powerful conversation as Gary indicated gold’s taper-induced sell-off this week has placed the metal in a position where, “hedge funds smell blood in the water,” and will likely “make sure stops are run below $1179…probably Monday morning.” 

Commenting on the growing predictability of these sell-off events, Gary said, “We’ve seen a lot of manipulation in the gold market over the last year& so I expect we’ll probably see one of those middle of the night hits, where they dump a million contracts on the market, so that when traders wake up in the morning their stops are already run…We may have another move, something similar to what happened in April, where the bottom just drops out.”

When asked about ‘technical support’ levels which may overwhelm paper selling, Gary noted that, “There are three levels that could stop this. One of them is that $1179 [June low]…The next realistic level would be the 50% retracement of the entire bull market [and] that comes in at $1090. A decent amount of shorts are going to cover at that level but…I think we’re probably going to test that 2007 c-wave top at $1030, and that’s the point where I think every short will cover and that’s where you could probably get a bottom for this bear market.”

(click to enlarge)

Despite the possibility of further short-term downside, Gary emphasized that, The secular bull market is still intact—[and] I think once we get to $1000-$1030, somewhere in there, I think we’re going to get our final bear market bottom…and that’s the point where you can back up the truck.” 

Following that final potential bottom, “Then we will have a bubble phase,” Gary added, “and I would not look for a top in that bubble until the dow/gold ratio gets back to 1-1, and maybe even below 1 this time. So I think [at] a minimum, gold is ultimately going to $5,000, and maybe even as high as $10,000. But I also don’t think that’s going to happen until probably 2017 or early 2018…Right now we got to get through this bear market.”

This was another powerful interview with one of the world’s most savvy gold traders, and is required listening for investors looking to profitably trade this gold bull market.

To listen to the interview, click the following link and/or save to to your desktop:

>>Interview with Gary Savage (MP3)

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  1. A bunch of Technical Analyst crap, from a self proclaimed savy trader. He talks as though the gold market was a bona fide market, where supply and demand determined price, as opposed to a virtual market where paper psuedo supply and illicit pilfered unallocated account supply, and opaque disingenuously leased-but-still-a-ledgered-asset ”Central Bank supply determine price; a price which is as temporary as this burlesque supply.
    “The Hedge Funds smell blood”. Really. And which of Golds Fundamentals is it thats bleeding? Has China stopped grabbing all the gold not nailed down? Has Indian smuggling been curtailed at its borders? Have Miners begun producing well above their production costs? Has the Federal Reserve stopped Reverse Repoing it Treasury Hoard to the shadow bankers? No? No. Nothing to see here…

    • It is worthless gibberish, and not because it’s bearish in tone. For all the reasons you stated and more.
       
      Guys like this are no better than any other dart thrower out there (bull or bear). I guess if I was a paper humper and trying to trade against the Morgue, HFT, algos and Hedge Funds I might listen to it. No thanks.

    • that seems to be the case Strannick. If these PM markets could be predicted by normal charts and graphs none of us would have bought a single ounce until the graph says buy. No one and nothing is able to get a good handle on prices, their direction or ultimate level, much less the year it might happen.
        If gold was to go that low it would make the purchase of gold a real crime scene.  The scramble for gold by China and others could turn down right bloody as everyone raced to get their ouncs or tons before the supply dwindling to near nothing. We’ve already seen a few local wars and countries overthrown for their gold.
      Price to mine gold now is $1,200  Not likely to see any miner commit suicide by selling at $200 less than production costs IMO

  2. With gold there is a good case to be made for it to be less scarce than advertized. By both the mainstream and alternative press.
    Gold has been stockpiled and cared after for 5000 years. Every rich gentleman has a gold secret.
    Silver, this is much less likely to be more abundant than advertized. Most of it is used up, and there are actual industrial uses, scooping up most of the supply.
    Silver outperform gol in bull runs. So if you go physical, why not silver? You are almost sure, right? And semi-numi silver helps the private investor some more. 
    I’m not buying gold. Probably for years to come, or when SGR looks to be making an (intermetiate) bottom. Wake me whan its 35, I’ll start by laughing at those who held gold at a GSR over 60.

  3. Obviously physical holders couldn’t give a shit, more likely we’ll want to BTFD. But I think he may have something for the paper price. Thinly traded Christmas market, FED would love to kick PMs in the nuts just before Christmas, so what better time than a market that can be made very volatile.
    Anyways, I’m hoping so!!!
    JC

    Update: Gold $1206 down to $1192. Bring it you fuckers.

  4. “I had a chance to connect”, “It was a powerful conversation”.
     wtf is this sh*t. You can always detect a bullsh*t article just by these kind of phrases. Its always a cross between bloomberg Charlie Rose and Jerry Springer…
    Why is it always a “Gary” or a “Jim”……hey lets just call them all “John Wayne” and have done with it. Cliche. Never a “Farook” or “Abisheck” is it….noooo….that would be too real…got to give the conversation some real powerful names… I hate poorly written articles, and this is one of them. “Take good care of yourselves….and each other, Gerry, Gerry, Gerry….”

    • I guess you could call this the chummy gold talkers club.  I get really bugged when every person who’s been in the market more than 20 years is called legendary.
        John Wayne is legendary.  Hercules is legendary. So is Joan of Arc.
      I dont care how old you are, ‘legendary’ is over the top.  IMO you gotta be dead to be legendary

  5. EVEN BETTER!!
    That way the system of manipulation schemes will colapse even faster! It’s only paper, after they collapse their own paper system, the REAL music starts playing. I wonder if they are prepared for what’s coming. Good job guys, I am tired of this nonsense anyway…

  6. I’m just not seeing it! My take is a jump up for end of year silver. Ebay buyers of silver are paying between 15 and 30% above spot! Only paper is cheap! Try cashing the paper in for phyzz and let me know how that goes.
    Hohohohoho!

  7. @ SilverSlicker

    Yes, I can corroborate the physical demand in my neck of the woods as well. I spoke to two LCS over the weekend looking for gold coins (1/2 ounce or less) and silver (American Eagles, Maples), and neither had what I wanted — at least NOT at the prices I was expecting. Both were out of everything except American Eagles. And one told me he had less than 5 in stock, the other ssaid he’s getting $25/oz. for them–a huge premium. It’s important to note that I had no problem getting what I wanted in months/years past — there was some issues but nothing to this extent. I do believe many smart people are using this sell-off as an excellent gift-giving opportunity…

    Gainesville and Provident which are two online dealers I frequent and both appear to be out of a lot of gold and silver items. They still have a good deal in stock, but by historical standards sales seem to be up quite a bit, particularly for gold.

  8. Savage is basically saying now is a good time to be patient.  If gold pushes down lower you get the benefit of even lower prices.  If gold goes higher and confirms that the bottom is actually in then it is also time to buy.  Not a bad strategy actually.

  9. With respect to the market being a steaming pile of donkey feces, I could not agree more. The thing about technical analysis is though, it’s like a cult. Plenty of people believe in it, trade on it, and the ass hole bleachers at the fed / govt know this.
     
    Like I said, until the market breaks or the fed / US are ok with the price going higher, we’re in the barrel.

  10. Eric Sprott believes 2014 will be a great year for gold.  If 2014 is not a banner year for gold then the odds are with us that 2015 will certainly be a banner year.  Eventually this manipulation scheme is going to peter out.  We have been patient for a long time so I don’t see any reason to throw in the towel yet.  

  11. I may get a christmas bonus today. If so, I’m going to hopefully get either a tube of all the latest SBSS 1 oz silver rounds, or as many of those new funk-infused-security maples I can handle.
     
    p.s. I am getting database errors on the doctor today. Is some grinch attacking the site?

  12. Pure speculation here as this guy has no idea what gold will do in the short term much less in the longer term. Remember with Bo Polny gave the “all clear” signal that gold had bottomed like way back in May or so? How did that call work out? I do not doubt the cartel’s ability to move gold where they want to move it today, tomorrow or going into the end of the year but I can tell you that physical cannot be purchased at those prices. 

    • Theoretically speaking, the pm markets can be manipulated and suppressed indefinitely.  The guru’s are speculating that this manipulation will end sometime in 2014.  There is no technical analysis around or discussion of fundamentals around that can help to accurately predict what will happen to gold in 2014.  Clearly, this manipulation can last much longer than we ever thought possible, but it cannot last forever.  I am praying that I can hold on as long as it takes without being thrown off the bull.  This is my New Years wish.

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