summerIs it possible that a substantial 2014 summer rally begins after the release of this Friday’s key jobs report? I think so.
I’ve outlined a rough scenario for summer rally enthusiasts on the daily silver chart below. I’ve suggested silver could move up to about $22.
Much higher prices are possible if Western world inflation and Indian buying increase significantly, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to occur. 

 

The Silver Shield Golden Girl in a Collector’s Case With COA
As Low As $44.99 Over Spot at SDBullion!

Golden Girl SDBullion

Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:

  1. Liquidity flows into or out of the “love trade” (gold jewellery) and the “fear trade” (inflation and financial system risk), are the two main drivers of the price of gold.
  2. The strongest gold jewellery buyers are in India, and the election of Narendra Modi has already unleashed a huge wave of confidence amongst jewellers there. ‘Retailers added that the latest steps by the apex bank of allowing banks to offer gold loans and permitting more entities to import the precious metal were signs of encouragement. This could drive up overall demand by 5% to 7% in 2014 from last year’s level of 975 tonnes, said Manish Kedia, bullion retailer. Manoj Thakkar of bullion retailer Amrapali Industries said, “The premium on gold has gone down from $110 per ounce to $35 per ounce. The prices too have come down after the Reserve Bank of India provided conditional relief in gold imports restrictions by allowing Star trading houses to import gold. We are in for better times now.”’ –Mineweb News, Mumbai, June 2, 2014.
  3. While El Nino could delay the arrival of India’s monsoon season by one or two weeks, an end to the import restrictions could unleash a tremendous amount of pent-up demand, more than offsetting the lost crop revenues.
  4. In the big picture, foreign investment is pouring into India. Last night, India’s central bank announced policy guidance, suggesting inflation will moderate and GDP growth will improve. As the economy strengthens, spirits are high, and this bodes well for the gold jewellery business during the second half of 2014.
  5. In America, home of the world’s largest gold fear trade, signs of inflation are beginning to appear. The Fed uses an eight year business cycle, and the last few years of that cycle tend to be when inflation appears.
  6. The US economy is entering the tail end of the business cycle now.
  7. On that note, please click here now. Seattle’s enormous increase in the minimum wage could set off a nation-wide surge in wages, which is highly inflationary.
  8. For a closer look at the Seattle plan, please click here now.
  9. Currently, most major money managers have a relatively similar outlook on major markets, including gold. If inflation begins to rise significantly over the next six months, significant disagreement about what that inflation means would almost certainly arise.
  10. In turn, that disagreement would create a fair amount of bond market volatility. Substantial institutional liquidity flows into gold stocks is very likely in that situation.
  11. Looking out over the next 7 months, both the love trade and the fear trade appear to favour the gold market bulls.
  12. Please click here now. That’s the GDX weekly chart, and it’s clear that significant summer rallies are the norm for gold stocks, not the exception.
  13. Look at the position of the 14,3,3 Stochastics oscillator. It’s very bullish.
  14. I would suggest that aggressive gold stock investors should be postured in a 70% -90% net long position.  Personally, I’m 90% net long and in very buoyant spirits.
  15. Please click here now. That’s the daily GDX chart. Note how little price erosion in gold stocks has occurred on a year over year basis.
  16. Compared to past years, the erosion is minor, and there’s an enormous (albeit somewhat rough) inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern in play.
  17. Please click here now. This daily GDXJ chart looks good. There’s a nice bullish wedge forming, and my stokeillator (14,7,7 Stochastics series) has just flashed a crossover buy signal.
  18. The technical posture of gold stocks meshes well, with the Western world’s transition from deflation to inflation, and with the mindboggling changes taking place in India.
  19. The exactly launch point of a summer rally is likely impossible to predict, so I find it desirable to maintain a modest number of short positions.
  20. Also, the monthly US Employment Situation report will be released on Friday, and gold has a rough tendency to decline or trade listlessly in the week leading up to the release of the report.
  21. Is it possible that a substantial 2014 summer rally begins after the release of this key jobs report? I think so.
  22. Please click here now. I’ve outlined a rough scenario for summer rally enthusiasts on this daily silver chart. I’ve suggested silver could move up to about $22.
  23. Much higher prices are possible if Western world inflation and Indian buying increase significantly, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to occur.
  24. Please click here now. That’s the daily gold chart.   Note the bullish position of my stokeillator at the bottom of the chart. A crossover buy signal appears to be imminent, and such signals tend to be followed by $50 – $150 rallies in the price of gold!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send an Email tofreereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Stock Markets Of The World” report. As the Fed tapers QE, and begins to consider withdrawing stimulus, which global stock markets are poised to survive and prosper? I’ll show you how I’ve positioned myself in global markets, to manage the coming sea change!

 

Thanks!  Cheers   St

Stewart Thomson Graceland Updates

 

D-Day- “The Longest Day” Available June 6th at SDBullion  
LIMITED MINTAGE:

10,000 Brilliant Uncirculated 1 oz Coins- in honor of the 10,000 Allied casualties suffered on D-Day
1,557 Proof 1 oz Coins- in honor of the 1,557 MIA Americans whose names are inscribed on the memorial
wall in the Normandy American Cemetery Garden of the Missing.

Each of the individually numbered COA’s will specifically honor one of the 1,557 American Heroes MIA on D-Day, including their Rank, Name, Unit, Home State, & Decorations.

HEROES_With_Flag_2

 

  1. The only source for ‘inflation’ is international variations of ‘QE’. Growth of borrowing, existential to ‘the system’, has fallen off critically and appears to be deepening in resolve. Government can’t let this happen or it’s ‘support framework’ will disintegrate. What the hell … it’s only paper stamps anyway. Those who’ve been insisting … ‘QE to infinity and permanently miniscule interest rates have been at least instinctively correct.

    • Spot on PF.  Dollar requires an ever increasing supply of money and credit.  If the private sector is not creating currency units by borrowing, then the government has to step in with increased borrowing and spending.  That’s why even in the face of calls to decrease gov’t spending Congress ALWAYS increases gov’t borrowing and spending because they have to increase the overall supply of money and credit.  Each year U.S. Treasury/Fed must preserve the unpaid principle from the previous year plus the unpaid interest; more correctly called a pyramid scheme instead of a Ponzi scheme only because they changed the law to make their fiat scheme legal and Ponzi implies it’s illegal.  Thus PF, you are so correct in your call for a return to sound money i.e. gold and silver.  FRN’s are nothing but a scam. 

  2. “….. I think so. I’ve outlined a rough scenario for summer rally enthusiasts on the daily silver chart below. I’ve suggested silver could move up to about $22.
    Much higher prices are possible if Western world inflation and Indian buying increase significantly, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to occur. “
     
    I still say silver will be $40 – $44 in mid October.  That sourcing Silver will be an issue by Labor day.

    • Brother 4 oz & everyone else
       
      every time I buy gold or silver it drops 
       
      so I will take one for the team & stop buying
       
      everyone  should be good to go from here

    • @4 oz – Do you anticipate that we will see a low in silver in the $16-$17 range before a move towards $22? I personally think that the downside in silver is very limited, probably $3-$4 dollars at the absolute most. Meanwhile the upside is virtually unlimited so the risk/reward ratio of going long or getting longer here obviously favors the upside. 

      While I wouldn’t mind seeing $40 silver by October I’d have to think that one or two banks would have to fold and the stock market would have to be going through a major correction in order for that to happen. Personally I’m a comfortable buyer of silver all the way up to the $25 level. 

    • Well Gogetter….Seems to me there is -No- reason to think that the end of the Silver Fix will be good for Silver prices.
      I’m not in any way an expert, but you can put me in the camp with those that think it’s very likely that TPTB will stomp the shit outta PM prices –if for no other reason than it makes sense for the price to be as low as possible when deliveries can’t be made and settlements will need to be made in cash….
      All this ‘cost of production’ stuff, while true is likely just a lot of noise, TPTB don’t care about the cost of production.  Miners going outta biz is part of the plan….TPTB will be right there to also gobble up all the mining companies on the cheap as they go under….
       
      Brother D Y, I stand guilty along side you…and think you, I, as well as all others should continue to acquire PM’s as we are able, and DCA all the way down to $1 if that’s how the cards come to us…..

  3. In India- 4. Last night, “INDIA’S CENTRAL BANK” announced policy guidance, suggesting inflation will moderate and GDP growth will improve. When a central bankers lips are moving, what’s he doing? 22. I’ve outlined a rough scenario for summer rally enthusiasts on this daily silver chart. I’ve suggested silver could move up to about $22. — It will cost 3 FRN an ounce more to add to a stack. WOW, feel enthused? I know I do. THIS IS A RIGGED MARKET AND NO ONE SHOULD BE MAKING PREDICTIONS UNTIL IT ISN’T RIGGED. Why not just say your guess is as good as mine.

    • The collapse has already started.  It’s just ponderously slow.  It’s slow speed is often mistaken for not happening.  But it IS happening.  The signs are all around us and getting slowly worse.  This is a long drawn-out process and not some kind of lightning bolt event.

Leave a Reply