Gold & Silver COT Report: Bottom Not in Yet, Commercials ADD 23 Million Oz to Silver Shorts!,

no bottomBy SD Contributor Marshall Swing:

Gold & Silver COT Report 4/19/13:

Commercial longs added 581 contracts to their total and 5,155 shorts to end the week with 46.34% of all open interest, a huge increase of 3.18% in their share of total open interest since last week, and now stand as a group at 112,490,000 ounces net short, which is an increase of just under 23 million net short ounces from the previous week!
I will go on record and say the bottom is not in yet.

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Large speculators added 1,209 longs covered a massive 8,474 short contracts increasing their net long position to 87,990,000 ounces, a huge increase in their net long position of well over 48 million ounces from the prior week.

 

Small speculators sold off a huge 3,077 long contracts but also picked up 2,032 additional short positions for a net long position of 24,500,000 ounces a serious decrease of over 25 million ounces net long from the prior week.

 

Now we know exactly what happened last week as price dropped from $27.91 all the way as low as $22 even before ending the COT week at $23.36  Price has moved very little since close on Tuesday afternoon and now stands at $23.20

 

The waterfall started last Friday morning and finished after hours on Monday for a total fall of $5.91

 

And we have the large speculators, hedge funds, to thank for this misery, all in the name of profit taking.

 

We cannot in any way blame the commercials for this situation as they picked up new shorts on the way to the bottom with some speculator long buying.

 

We knew this was coming as those hedge funds had been taking short positions hand in fist, right and left, in previous weeks since February 5th.  We just did not know when the profit taking was coming.

 

Is this the bottom?  When the hedge funds started the short selling the large specs had 6,588 contracts and the small specs had 10,961 contracts.  After this past week’s bloodletting those numbers stand at 22,103 shorts for the large specs and 17,777 for the small specs.  That is a difference of over 20,000 short contracts.  Traders who sell short want to cover for profit just like those who buy long want to sell for profit.

 

If the small specs are correct, we are quite some ways from the bottom as they picked up another 2,032 short contracts this last reporting period.

 

The commercials overall and the producer merchant significantly strengthened their net short positions so they could induce more downward motion but my guess is they are willing to sit back and let the speculators slice and dice for profit as low as they want.

 

In gold, it is extremely important to note the producer merchant and the swap dealer are within 500,000 net short of each other and that could be a dire circumstance to keep on the watch list.  With all the interrelated, automatic, dependent trading between gold and silver, it would not take much for the gold producer merchant to have offloaded the lion’s share of short positing onto the swap dealers.

 

In both metals, leftover shorts could opt out by slow, protracted covering, and seek long positions.

 

I will go on record and say the bottom is not in yet.

 

 

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Comments

  1. you go on record NOW saying the botton is not in? the bottom will be in at 17 .. ive stated this for the past two and a half years while people here called me a troll. …. when we get to 17 then buy 

    • We can’t buy anything now even at $23.50.  What will anyone be able to buy if the price falls to $17.00???  Nobody has any inventory now.  Do you think inventory will magically appear as supply continues to fall and demand continues to increase?  Where is the supply now?   I’m willing to buy at $23.50 but I can’t find anything.

    • Until further evidence … We MAY have already seen Gold and Silver’s ‘Bottom’s.
       
      So far, they look like:
      Silver: http://www.westtxtrader.com/Charts/WTT__SILVER_5_Hour.png
      Goldhttp://www.westtxtrader.com/Charts/WTT__GOLD_5_Hour.png

      and there have been 3 trading days since the last day of that report.

    • Exactly.  A few years ago the price of silver dropped under $10 an oz.  When that happened, you could not buy any.  No one was selling at that price, claiming that they had none.  Amazingly enough (sarc) silver appeared on the shelves as if by magic the day that silver prices hit $15 an oz.  The paper gamers can do anything they want with “the price” but that does not mean that the phyzz holders will go along with it.  To make a market, we need buyers and sellers.  Would you sell your stack for $17 an oz.?  Few of us would. That portends a market filled with buyers but no sellers. Good luck buying then.

    • @just-a-girl: @The Doc: You still have coins in stock don’t you?

    • @RocketsRedGlare : we have a limited number of ASE’s and silver buffalo rounds in stock, maples are in-transit.  Physical supply is EXTREMELY TIGHT, and suppliers are raising premiums nearly hourly.  Wholesale premiums jumped another $2 today on eagles.

      -Doc

    • @Just-a-girl
      I watch (like many others) spot through the day and night (iphone).  If it hits my target I’m straight on the phone to my dealer chum.  If your expecting such a drop then set yourself up for it.  There may well be supply recovery in the mean time so GET IN REAL QUICK!  I just took delivery of 100 ag Maples but only because I jumped before most others.
      Anyway:  The Secret World Of Gold (Full)


      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.

  2. What if it’s just that the trick they do doesn’t work anymore?

  3. ILUVPMs, there may not be phyzz available at $17, at least not without huge premiums.  IMO The difference between a spot price of $23 and $17 may not make a difference once the premium is added on.  Phyz right now still costs $30/oz.  
     
    If I’m wrong and someone has a dealer I can buy eagles are 90% junk bags for close to spot, please tell me immediately. 

  4. 85billion a month will buy you a lot of leverage “The bottom is in at 15.

  5. If the bottom is not in why are there so many physical sales holding Silver at $23?
     

  6. Ranger
    They probably see the detachment from the paper to the Physical. They will just be dumping paper! Noting in this world is real! Think of the world as a Matrix.. If you figure out, you don’t own your name your on your way of getting out of the Democracy and Joining the Republic.

    • Very true. Just 1 billion $ worth of gold was sold out in mumbai-india in last 2 days. Went to shop to buy some physical gold. Shops are taking booking but delivery post 25 th may. Their is huge shortage of physical gold and silver. Waiting time for silver delivery is 1 month. Not to forget the long lines at every gold shop, to reach actual counter is taking 2-3 hrs.
      Immediate delivery premium is 50$ in india now. This is clear detachment of paper to physical.

  7. Who cares about the bottom?  How high will the price be a year from now?  Two years? Five years?  For those of us in it for the long haul, we could care less about you calling the bottom.

  8. Its going take a so much paper to push the price of silver below twenty and then hold it. I dont think with all the phys-buying around the world it can be done and if so it would most likley be during the globex session.It dosnt matter unless you are really fast in placing a order and the phy-price isnt going to go much lower for that short period of time.

  9. If someone bails from silver at $17, 18 or 20 an ounce, that will be scooped up a light speed.  I am reviewing silver supplies in the Northern NV area and it is still short  I made a trade today for about $4 over spot for some items to add to another side of the collection. The seller profited by getting silver at $27 or so and i got something that I want at a very good price. Barter is alive and well in Northern NV.  Neither the governor and Mr Brady were involved. 

  10. Panning out differently than I thought. But then again, we got 2 more sideways days of more than respectable volume.

    How how would it be to obtain COMEX silver right now? Just get a contract and ask for delivery, how long with that take and would you walk into stuck out hands? It’s gotta be the cheapest place on earth now, if they deliver.
    With even lower prices, how would we get retail silver?

  11. The bottom may not be in for the COMEX paper price, but it certainly is for anyone who wants to buy physical metal.  Let me echo just-a-girl above.  If someone is interested in buying at $23, but cannot because there is nothing to sell, how the hell is $17 going to make any difference?  The silver supply chain is broken now.  Going lower only makes it that much more ridiculous. If it did happen you might finally get those morons at CFTC to act because it would be a clear sign of pure price fixing.

  12. We should start a campground at the CME parking lot and just pool our money so that a trader can take 5000 ounces off of the floor at a time.  Just pay the markup for immediate delivery.  There are provisions for that type of sale.  Make the dealers cough it up.  

  13. Can someone explain to me how you can get the future spot price from the COTS report?
     
    Commercials are SUPPOSE to be short, they are Mines for goodness sake. So if they increase their shorts doesn’t this mean that they are covering delivery estimates, the Shorts cover the longs, in the case of mining this covers production, actual silver coming out the ground. This means they are expecting more silver coming online.
     
    Have I read this incorrect? 
     
    Now can someone please explain why this would lead to $17 spot price?

  14. Alternative theory for how the CME may play this little ‘no metal’ problem, presented by JSNIP4 on youtube …


     
    He says that they can’t allow ANY alternative currency, and so they will not default. That they will simply announce ‘no more deliveries of metal due to whatever’ (earthquake, terror attack, cyber attack, landslide, etc). Of course, that would mean suddenly the COMEX would become irrelevant as regards price of PMs, but that’s pretty much what we have right now. Sounds interesting and plausible to me, and not unlike what we have already now with ALL fiat currencies – they are worth nothing, but it doesn’t stop the buggers from enforcing them and suppressing all alternatives. My thoughts … this would then force physical metal sales to be done as a kind of black market operation, which could then be made illegal for us cattle (although perfectly legal for the non-cattle class). Sounds about right.
     
    What do people think?

  15. Still a lot of silver supply at Kitco Hong Kong. I talked to guy at Kitco the other days. They experienced no silver shortage even when supply dried up in the US. 
    https://online.kitco.com.hk/product_list.action
    As for gold, it is difficult to get without high premium, or line up for a long time at the banks.

  16. Can’t find any silver?  I’ll sell you a tube of ASE’s for $1000 right now. 

    • I’ll second that Silverhawk and offer one MB for $50,000.  Then replace it with generic rounds.  But not to Silver Doctor Irregulars.  That would be mean.  We can find ASEs when no one else can.  LOL

  17. Chief I’ve been testing the market for silver barter. I’m not using junk bullion, too hard to get. but normal silver rounds.
    Within the last year I’ve been able to trade martial arts training, handyman services, car repair, guns, ammo and plain old FIAT that I use to buy othre stuff.  Price range   $5 over spot and I’m pretty firm on that trade price. It’s reasonable and the mutuality of the exchange is reasonable.  More than this, and it might be a situation that requires more thought. These tests have been successful and with a happy result. 
    I can get back into silver bullion at less than my trade price with SDB but right now the spread is pretty puny with spot low and supplies stretched But it can work and if I do a large sale then the buy back might give me $1-2 in ‘profit’ although I don’t think of it as profit but more the friction of exchanging these commodities.

  18. Folks, I know this might be hard for some to swallow, and will make Perfect sense to others. There is No Governments! Watch the Movie’s, Alice in Wonderland, The Matrix, The Avatar and many, Many more. These twisted people tell us, but we don’t listen. They are ALL Corporations!  They Fool All of us through Legalese! They sent us All to Public School to be Good little Slaves, and Not to think on our Own!  If you believe you Live in the United States, and don’t Live in the District of Columbia and are a 14 amendment citizen, then you were Completely Duped! Both sides Lost in the Civil war to the International Bankers. The Winner gets to rewrite History! It wasn’t over Slavery!  D.C. was Seized to the British Bankers from Bankruptcy! We were Sold OUT! Read some Commentaries on the Organic Act of 1871!  In the Act, a NEW GOVERNMENT WAS FORMED!! Also the UNITED STATES was formed as a CORPORATION! Which was Also LAND LOCKED in D.C.!
    If I see some response from this post, I will be more than happy to supply more information. But I live in the REPUBLIC and you live in a CORPORATE DEMOCRACY! You pay Taxes and I DON’T, You Follow Statutes, and I don’t! You go to court and get Thrown into Jail, and I don’t!  Btw, Canada, trades on the U.S. Securities Exchange and the US Trades on, well let’s just say were All Subject of the CROWN! 

    • On point realrepublic, but don’t be upset if you can’t open the eyes of the slaves.

    • @RealRepublic & hromano1030; You may be interested in the following on YouTube: “it’s an illusion John Harris”
       

    • Very good. Close, but, re: “…to the British Bankers…” They may have had control of the Bank of England since 1694, but they are not British. In the same way as most of the “Russian” oligarchs, for example, are not Russian.

    • @realrepublic I’m more than interested in what you have to say.  How do you avoid paying taxes, and how do you avoid going to jail? What’s the secret to make yourself immune from the illusion we were all sold and taught to belive?
      All ears.
       
      ag

  19. Black’s Law Dictionary – 6th Edition | Welcome to johnwademoore.net
    For an Eye opener, look up the word Passenger, Also Guest! Then Book mark this Site! Also look at your Drivers License, Why is “Your” NAME IN ALL CAPITOL LETTERS”!!!!!

  20. Surprise surprise, they aren’t going long.  I hate to say I told ya so, but…
    They are the gatekeepers of this fiat system. They have made tens of billions of dollars in the last year off their paper.  Their bonuses are fine.  They will short this metal until it blows up.  Period.
    Even if they tried to go long, all they would have is a stack of their own bullshit paper. The Comex is under no obligation to deliver metal.
    They have a cash payment option.
    When they cover some shorts they are prepping for the next op.  It is up to us to control OUR PRICES.  Sell for a satisfactory price, one that you can accept.  Otherwise, tell the wannabe buyer to piss off, the low-balling cretins deserve no consideration, waiting this long to enter.
    They had their chance same as the rest of us.

    • Maybe that’s why registered dealer inventory remains stuck at 41 million ounces for weeks if not months now.  Harvey keeps mentioning the “stoic longs” in his daily blog.  Apparently it is some mystery as to who they are.  It occurred to me that those phantom longs could be controlled opposition at the comex.  There has to be somebody to play after everybody gets their butts kicked on the trading floor some days.  I don’t know.  It’s starting to remind me of the end of the Wizard of Oz.  Record worldwide demand don’t mean a thing at the comex.  

  21. That news ought to make everyone’s day a little brighter.  

  22. I have no-I-fucking-dea what the silver COT report means.
     
    I have silver. Does that help?
     
     

  23. realrepublic  You got my attention.  What Republic do you live in?  I’m no Neo, far far from it but I’d like to wrap my head around some of what you talk about. Keep it simple, you know who you are dealing with.  About Pat Field’s level or you will lose me  thank you

  24. I welcome another spot price smash. Beyond this point, each and every smash is more counterproductive. As the physical and spot price disparity grows, the strength of the cartel manipulation weakens. A decrease in relevance of the spot price marks the beginning of the end. When those waiting on the sidelines for a lower price and fail to get it, even when the spot price is smashed they will realize, “this is it”. This is already happening to a degree. We then reach the next phase when real shortages show up, and the fear of not being able to obtain ANY physical at ANY price overwhelms supply.

  25. Speros   You have silver?  Be calm, stack on.  COTs come and go, silver is forever

  26. I will post also in the newest blogs when I have time.
     
    hromano1030 and RoughRook, I see your eyes are open! Almost the Whole world is already in the New world Order, through what is known as the Uniform Commercial Code or UCC, everyone is under the same Commercial Laws because all these governments are Defatco, Not true Governments. All the Old real Governments sold us All down the River, mostly the 1930′s. United States citizens are still British Subjects! After the Civil war which was over the first bankruptcy, we went broke fighting for our independence, the North needed the South to pony up there land, for the restructure of the bankruptcy and they politely told the North to F____ OFF, and seceded from the Union. This war created Much more debt, and trying not to go into all the details, the land of the South was ponied up as well. The British had other stipulations as well. The Organic Act of 1871 created the United States, but it was Landlocked inside the District of Columbia. They also formed a “New Government” and extended you the right to Join it in the 15 Amendment and to cast your vote..lol Then they created Birth Certificates giving you the “Right” to join the United States and the right to work for them in the future. They tell you not to Use the Birth certificate as Identification, because it IS Identification! So what did we all do, we went out and got Government I.D. with it! Ta-Da, you are now a Government agent. They suck you in with contracts you don’t understand, because they are written in Legalese! And you agreed to it, under the penalty of Perjury! Instead of remaining a State Citizen we all went out and Abandoned the Republic! You didn’t need a Social Security card to go to work. lol It’s all Voluntary! It’s just Nobody Knows the Laws!  They Tell us in the Law when we study the law. The information is all out there, but you also have to know how to defend your Rights!
    In the later 1930′s in the United States they created the Buck Act to bring the United States out of the District of Columbia, they did it threw word of Art. They created these legal Fictions called as an example: STATE OF KENTUCKY, KY with Zip codes, creating federal zones. Instead of plain ole Kentucky Ky., with a period.. and No Zip. The Court System also Changed because the “money” changed to the Color of Money to the Color of Law. which is the Law of the sea. Admirality/Maritime, which is Contract Law! All crimes are Commercial events 27CFR 72.11  
    Now lets take a Look at your “NAME”,,, if you look at all your Statements, Driver’s license, Car titles and Deeds, they are in an ALL CAPITOL LETTER NAME, That is not YOU!  Persons under legalese are Corporations.. A Name is a Noun, person, place or thing! So your either a Corporation or thing!  Under Bankruptcy, you cannot Own Anything!  This is how they Steal your Labor! You are Not obeying the Law and Discharging your Debts, which reduces the Debt, Your Birth certificates are Bonds! So the Courts are there to make you become the Surety for the Debt and throw your Vessels into prison as the collateral, so they get you to release the money from your bond. If you hire a BAR Attorney, you are now in their Jurisdiction and you give him Power of Attorney to sign for you to go to jail.. They are in on the GAG! Prison is Voluntary.

    The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.

     
     

  27. realrepublic
    it’s like that old saying ‘you can ignore the facts but it does not mean they go away.
    Here is a  real titty twister.  I was born in Canada in 1952 with a Canadian BC.  My folks were both US Citizens, born in the 1920′s.  I am dual national and have not declared one way or the other and have passports for both countries.  I have a USSA slave numer which I received when I got my first job 1968.  The USSA corporation took  about $300,000 from me, my employer and my own company in the last 45 years via my slave number
     I am married with a marriage license (to a women)  I guess we have to state that now.  My wife has a slave number too
    Without seeming too snotty, Dear Abby, are we screwed or what?  Seems like my ass is owned by two countries and the Queer of England, Duke of Earl and Price Charles

    • Well, according to these videos, a sovereign has the freedom to change his mind if he wishes. You can amend any ‘contract’ you have entered into if you are not happy with the current terms of the agreement. Think Native American Indians. Apparently it isn’t just the Native Americans that can seem to ‘skirt around’ the ‘law’ (which are mostly codes and policies and not actual laws). 
       
      The way this guy in the video explains it, it seems they are trying to get you to enter into various contracts with them, but if you are savvy you can evade most of what they are trying to throw at you as long as you don’t steal from another individual or harm another. I recommend everyone takes the time to watch his videos (where he claims to have had many cases dismissed through understanding the rules of their game) and using it to his advantage. Unfortunately, it seems since this guy was blowing the cover on the whole charade, the 1% had him killed. 
       
      Check it out and let me know what you all think. 
       
      ag

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