Submitted by SD Contributor Marshall Swing

Gold COT Report 6/8/12

Commercials sold off a mountain of longs this week -15,611 and picked up a huge 9,802 shorts to end the week with 54.88% of all open interest, more than a full percentage point drop since last week, and now stand as a group at -15,612,200 ounces net short, over 2,500,000 added net short from the previous week.  This is the result of the speculators going long because they thought the bottom was in.  But just like in silver, the bottom, of course, is not in yet and will not be in for quite some time to come.  As we approach the fall of the Western financial system with JP Morgan leading the pack, the precious metals will plummet to unbelievable lows, just above or at capital expense costs per ounce.  But this is a good thing for us physical investors.

No one believed me months ago when I predicted silver would tumble below $30 an ounce and gold below $1600.  Don’t think for a minute that the lows are in yet.  Until the commercials divest themselves of their massive short positions they will continue to debase the metal’s prices.

 

Large speculators grabbed 16,523 longs and covered -1,629 shorts for a net long position of 12,886,400 ounces, a big increase in their net long position of well over 1,800,000 ounces from the prior week.  They were doing the right thing going long but as we shall see in next week’s COT they got slammed by the commercials and gave up many of those longs.

 

Small speculators increased 5,382 longs and covered -1,879 shorts for a net long position of 2,725,800 ounces a significant increase of over 725,000 ounces net long from the prior week.

 

In recent weeks we have seen the producer/merchant commercials steal longs during the same COT week.  This time is different as they waited several days after the massive long buying to attack the speculators and rob them of their longs by tripping their stops so they can continue to decrease their massive net short positions.

 

I will detail these events in a report on Sunday.

 

The battle with the CFTC and the manipulation of silver and gold is over for now and the speculators have lost but I will always provide the CFTC commissioner’s access information for you so we can continue to remind them they work for us!

For your convenience, if you would like to contact the CFTC and express your views to them, I have provided you their phone numbers and I hope earnestly that you fill up their phone lines: http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm and email addresses as well:

 

ggensler@cftc.gov  Chairman Gensler

 

bchilton@cftc.gov  Commissioner Chilton

 

jsommers@cftc.gov  Commissioner Sommers

 

Somalia@cftc.gov  Commissioner O’Malia

 

mwetjen@cftc.gov  Commissioner Wetjen

 

dmeister@cftc.gov  Director Meister

 

See you next week!

 

Marshall

  1. I try to glean useful information from the COT reports, but the market is so psychotic it all seems contradictory.
    For instance-
    1) Commercials – 2,500,000 oz added to net shorts in one week.
    2) Large Specs-  added 1,800,000 net longs doing the right thing but got slammed.. (wrong thing/ right thing ??)
    3) Small Specs- added some to 2,725,800 oz long
    4) yet commercials “trip stops and rob specs of their longs so they can continue to decrease their short positions”
    What about number 1 up there? added 2.5 million while decreasing their shorts?
    Wha.. .?
    Thank goodness somebody understands these crazy COT reports, I certainly don’t.
    Then we hear this- ” the collapse will lead to unbelievably low prices” but it is right to go long now?

    I’m too stupid for high finance, I’m going long tobacco and juju beans.

     

  2. Glad you asked all the questions Conax. I wish I knew the answers as well. Marshall, you seem to be a whiz on the COT. How long have you been following this and, if you don’t mind me asking, what is your background. Don’t answer if it bothers you. Suffice it to say we appreciate your posts very much.

    Juju Jeans Conax???????????? I’m at a loss. LOL.

  3. Not jeans, beans.. ;)  (candy)
    I know these reports can be doped out, I just don’t get it how they can add shorts and decrease shorts-
    Maybe their ‘old’ shorts were at too low a price to ever bring in money so they dump them for newer ones at a higher price that can turn a profit on a dip?
    I appreciate Marshall Swing’s effort, don’t take it the wrong way.
    I’m just thick headed.

  4. Thank’s Marshall:

    No disrespect to your post just, do not understand these things. But I know many do and we all give you thumbs up on all your efforts. Besides when you vision get a little fussy looking at all those numbers im sure the photo will clear it up.
  5. Now ya done it 427! After I grille a good dinner outside, I’ll be ready and my wife will say “What has got into you?” LOL. Yes Marshall, not to detract from your post, but the picture shows we are still, well…. you understand. Thanks for the constant updates. 4OZ., stopping to smell the roses is a ritual I perform every day. I’m truly a lucky person.

  6. Beans yes Conax. Sorry I got that wrong. Mind in the gutter I suppose. Marshall, if the paper price does drop a lot more, how long do you anticipate it being down. I’m no good at calling a bottom and I buy a few ounces a week. However, I’d like to make sure the dry powder is used as effectively as possible. Thoughts please.

  7. I don’t know how much in the way of price predictions you can spirit from the COT report.  However, the writer’s initial comment that the lows may not be in yet could prove to be spot on.  If another domino falls in Europe it could trigger a sudden need for liquidity.  That would like mean big players selling their gold/silver because they need the cash; temporarily driving the price down.

  8. For The Purposes Of Continuity, Maybe I Should Re-post This Here. I Published This About 2 Minutes After The COT was Released, So It’s Possible That Some Of You Haven’t Seen It As It Was On Another Thread. For Those Of You Who’ve Already Seen It, Ignore This Post.

     

    THIS WEEK’S COT REPORT 6-8-2012

    It Looks Like The
    Commercials Are Starting To Increase Their Shorts Again. While This
    Development Is Not, In My Mind, A Good Thing, I Know We Must Accept It
    As “Normal Everyday Manipulation” 

    The Commercials Increased Their by 1301 Contracts Shorts To 61452 

    They Decreased Their Longs By 890 Contacts To 44927

    This Raises The Commercial Shorts As A Percentage Of Total Inventory To 57.58% From 50.14%

    The Percentage Of Their Shorts As A Percentage Of Registered Also Rises To 231.21% From 200.56%

    This Means, As I Have Been Guessing, The Bottom In The Silver Price Is Likely To Be “Already In Place”.
    Thus, The Scenario That I’ve Been Discussing For Last Weeks Should
    Resolve Itself With Rising Silver Prices From Now Into July 4th
    (roughly) INCLUDING A Retest of this $28 low. 

    This Also Confirms That The COT Report From Last Week Signaled The Low We’ve Been Guessing About.

    Total Inventory This Week Rose To 143,486,176 Oz

    Registered Unchanged at 35,740,329 Oz.


    Interesting—I Only Had A Chance To Glance At This Week’s Silver
    Comex Inventory And I thought The Total Inventory Had Risen—It’s
    UNCHANGED!

    IN FACT NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER THIS WEEK IN INVENTORIES—LOL!

    UGLYDOG—Yes, You’re Right. “Change Of Trends” are very difficult to “see”. Of course, since this is always a guessing game—none of this can be construed as “a prediction”, but in the very short term, they are now increasing their shorts after a long streak of REDUCING their shorts.

    If you look at the magnitude of their most recent totals, (Commercial Short Contracts-Commercial Long Contracts)X 5000 Oz./Registered AND Total Silver Inventory, you’ll see that this number is THE LOWEST in years.

    Although, this does not predict a change of trend (as they can just keep reducing it), it does say that we are close to some kind of change in trend. This is especially true if you regard this most recent increase in their shorts as a turning point.

    Now—I think my interpretation strategy differs from Marshall’s in three ways. First—He does not focus on JUST THE COMMERCIAL SHORTS AS I DO.
    Second—He doesn’t convert their contracts to oz. of silver by multiplying by 5000 then dividing that number by the total and registered oz. totals to get a percentage. I’ve been doing this for years. To my knowledge, no one else does this. I like it because it ties in the Comex inventories as part of their manipulation strategy.

    Third–I take the Commercial Short Totals minus The Commercial Long Totals. Multiply them by 5000 and divide that number by the registered and total Comex silver Inventory numbers—I then chart those daily numbers to get a trend.

    Nonetheless, the basic concepts are still intact. They Banksters could continue to keep reducing their short totals and not show an overall trend change, or they could be turning to increase from here. Time will tell.

    There is one more difference in interpretation between myself and just about everyone else. This may be due to my belief that they will never stop manipulating until the Comex has no verifiable silver.

    My different interpretation is that I believe they INCREASE short totals as the price of silver RISES. Therefore, we must see a rise in their shorts INTO a price rising trend.  

  9. Dam are you guys trying to give me a heart attack. I come on here to read and get some insight and all I get is High Blood Pressure. LMAO

    At least I did have time to read yours Jake but then went back to the pictures.

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