Friday’s Forecast: Partly Cloudy, With a 70% Chance of RAID

Submitted by SD Contributor FW:

Friday may be a good day to look for an opportunity to Stack the Smack.

I’d put odds that we’ll have a silver correction Friday at 70%.  Mining equities were somewhat signaling correction during Thursday’s trade.  The RSI blasted almost to 80.  Gold was capped by the cartel today at the typical 1% up rule, which shows the scumbags are lurking around and active.  The daily trend leveled and we should look to see if there’s weakness in the overnight session in advance of the COMEX open.  Inflation trade commodities other than PMs sold off today and we may have an improvement in weather coming, which will temporarily take the heat off the ag sector.

The 200 DMA in the very near-term doesn’t mean much, and in fact the cartel has often attacked when technical milestones are reached just to piss people off and to attempt to squash technically positive signals.  This is all the more likely this time around given all the other factors I noted above.

So, the guy that told you very early this month that this bull move was imminent is now underscoring the risk of a small correction.  Odds are, this will be totally insignificant when looking at a one month chart 30 days from now.  I think the uptrend will resume sometime next week and by Friday, August 31st, we’ll see silver close the week well into the low $30s, and with what I said earlier this week is still on target for next week.
If the cartel manages to shave more than a buck off the price on an intraday basis and we move below $29.50, that $29.50 area should act like a magnet and suck the price back up to around that level an hour or so after a possible spike down attack (picking that number based on the 72 hour bot technical analysis theory I’ve been developing that I talked about earlier this week).  There would even be a chance we’d manage to close above $30 anyway, post attack.

Moral of the story? Be prepared to STACK THE SMACK on a cartel raid Friday!

Comments

  1. Good insight FW…It will be a good time to keep stacking! The only thing missing is the image of the RAID can!!!

  2. I could stand to have prices drop til the first week of Sept when I get paid…

  3. On February 29th, 2012, a MASSIVE raid was staged against both gold and silver.  The effect of this was less than the previous smaller raids and was even more temporary.  Surely the ultra-smart cartel types can see these diminishing returns for their efforts.  At some point, one would think that they would give up on these ridiculous raids as being completely useless to whatever nefarious purposes they have in mind.  Other than causing valuable metals to be sold off for less than their true values, WTF are these idiots really accomplishing?  Oh, yes, they are emptying the western bullion vaults and filling the Asian ones.  I guess that counts for something.  Doesn’t it?  :-(
     

  4. Ed:  Since I embarrass myself regularly with mixed metaphors:  Gold is the smoke alarm for the common man, and keeping it from going off helps manage the primacy of the fiat system and the US dollar in particular, while also playing a roll to tame inflation expectations, which facilitates the ever-expansion of debt at lower than market interest rates.  Silver is the tail that wags the gold dog.  Silver is the Achilles’ heel of the entire fiat system given how puny real, physical supplies are relative to the monumental paper claims against physical.   …but I have a hunch you already knew all this.  :-)
     
    The immediate aftermath of Feb. 29th indeed fit the pattern of the cartel having to sell ever larger piles of paper silver to impact the paper price.  But as you’ll recall, it was a multiple front war, with massive propaganda efforts to temporarily try to get the entire investment community thinking so-called QE-3 wasn’t needed.  Within a week or two hedge funds and other weak hand speculators turned into massive sellers and there’s evidence that the cartel was also – once again – beating the heck out of PM equities with shorting and naked short selling.  You’re right to point out that the cartel didn’t get much bang for their buck in the immediate aftermath of Feb. 29th’s attack.  But we have to give them credit for winning a number of battles thereafter, particularly when it comes to morphing investor sentiment.  By July, sentiment was once again reaching levels near the bottom of 2008.  All the while, fundamentals for higher precious metals prices improved throughout the whole period.  White is black.  Up is down. 
     

  5. Are there any lawyers out there? Can you tell me if this would work?
    1. Put on a suit.
    2. Go into a Federal Reserve Bank with $1 Silver Dollar and $500 Federal Reserve notes.
    3. Demand that the Federal Reserve exchange the notes (their liabilities/credit) for 500 real Silver dollars.
    4. If they refuse, ask if their Federal Reserve notes are still valid.
    5. Explain that “note” means promissory note, debt, credit, or liability.
    6. If they refuse ask them if the notes are no longer valid or counterfeit.
    7. Explain that the Constitution defines the US Dollar as .715 ounces of Silver.
    8. If they still refuse follow up with a certified letter documenting what happened and demanding that they exchange the Federal Reserve Notes for US Silver dollars.
    9. If they still refuse, take them to small claims court and argue your case, and explain to the judge that the Federal Reserve is a private bank that has been debasing the dollar since 1913.
    Maybe the Federal Reserve will just pay you $5,000 to go away

  6. We’ll have a great day today.  We’ll go into the weekend above $31.  We’re at the point where people will be thinking “Any weekend now”, and getting into the metals before Fridays close.  Musical Chair Flinchers.  And to the guy above me, they closed the gold silver/notes exchange program back in the 60′s. You have no case.

  7. My old football injury is starting to ache. It does this occasionally, usually when helicoptor Bernanke is overhead dumping Fed. Notes and bread or when J.P. Morgan is dumping paper silver from atop their corp. office tower down on the masses!

  8. Looks like someone is soaking up 30.50 contracts like crazy.  I see a launch before lunch.  And hopefully not launching their lunch.  Eat well today, my fellow silver bulls.

  9. Would LOVE to see Ag close at or above 31.30 for the week—give me a warm fuzzy for the weekend…

  10. I’m glad 30% carried the day, although you can see in the chart that a sell-off going into the NY open was in fact tried.  It just didn’t get far given the backdrop of strong demand.  The tight tracing of today’s trading as it follows yesterday’s trading is another example of probable long side bot trading from momentum hedge funds.  It’s kind of like some version of a “buy the dip” program.  The buying interest, human or machine, stands back and does nothing until the price falls enough to hug yesterday’s movement through time, having little to do with the newsflow today, but rather, just “buy the dip” to “trace yesterday.”

    In any event, a day or two of sideways trading would be ideal, actually, because that would let some of the frothy expectations cool off a bit.  A straight-up hockey stick move isn’t a good thing.
    Originally, last Monday, I was pretty sure the cartel wouldn’t mess with silver much this week, and only show up next week.  Looks like that’s going to end up being the better call.  When I saw the cartel active in gold yesterday and all the other factors, it looked like they would make an effort to hit silver hard today.  Try as they did, they have failed so far.  Impressive!  Hi-ho silver :-)

    • I tried to add a chart but the gif didn’t load with html and the “reply” window on SilverDoctors didn’t offer-up the insert picture feature either. So, just click this link or copy and past into your browser’s address bar to see the chart: http://i46.tinypic.com/2dc5to8.gif It shows a textbook example of a buy-bot (or more than one) in operation.

  11. Silver Badger   I suggest that you not try that with the Fed   They have a small army to defend themselves complete with full battle rattle papramilitary troops protecting their minions.  Getting into Fort Knox would be easier that entering the Fed in NYC.  After the shooting in Downtown NY this AM, who knows—someone might have tried what you suggested and got themselves shot for their troubles.  Of course I could be wrong  Doing what you suggest might bring down the whole system.  LOL

  12. Just added 2 92.5% silver quarters for 6$ each. I can’t buy a full ounce cause I don’t have the cash left.

  13. Ah !  I just saw 30.74.  Bouncing our heads on 30.72. 50 minutes to go.  I want a HAIL MARY over the 31

    P.S. To the chart people. I don’t use charts, I use Trends and Headlines. That’s what drives markets. Charts are for calm waters when we live on a gold standard.

  14. Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

  15. SilverHawk:  Charts and Technical Analysis can give insights into what actions some investors will take, and those investors control over half of the money that moves around on a day-to-day basis.  Like it or not, “chart people” are behind most of the dollar flow that moves on any specific day so don’t be so quick to close off an entire universe of tools that can improve your ability to understand our world.  TA methods such as sentiment readings are probably some of the most important things a precious metals investor can master.

    Now, all that said, for every minute I spend paying attention to technical analysis, I spend 100 minutes just flat-out reading, from headlines to full research reports to books and blogs and on and on, upwards of 1000+ pages a day, all in an effort to assimilate the zeitgeist of the current period.  So, you’ll get no major disagreement on methodology from me.  Nevertheless, I’d just suggest not to be quick to dismiss TA.  It has its place, and there are some investors that are amazingly effective at mixing both TA and fundamental analysis (broadly defined).  For example, Frank Barbera’s TA and fundamental wisdom when it comes to the precious metals space is beautiful to watch in action.

    If you think chart tools are only good for calm waters in generically trending markets, you’re simply demonstrating that you haven’t had a lot of experience with the broad insights TA can provide.  TA is not a singular thing, just as there isn’t one method for analyzing headlines  or trends.  Keep an open mind, my friend :-)

    It’s actually kind of funny that I would be defending TA because frankly, most people who are major adherents and practitioners of technical analysis fail to effectively expand their tool kit and abilities when they fail to incorporate complementary fundamental analysis.  But that’s a discussion for some other day.  

  16. I’ll be real nice here and say people who use charts are MORONS.
     
    Soak in your Chart losses for friday.

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