Too bad this forum is so infrequently posted to. The front page is turning into a silver zero hedge.
Let’s get physical, and practical.
My dealer tells me, and I witnessed on many instances, that business just spiking UP. His shop is selling nice gold alright, but it’s only 5% of his bizz. Rest is silver. And on the current dip, buying is crazy. The kilo coins his partners consider too high a number for healthy stock, evaporated in front of my eyes on the stock list. I did a nice part of the buying. Then 10oz went. He cannot in any way keep 10oz Snakes in stock. Whatever he puts online, is sold within hours. It’s mad, just mad. This silver came from somewhere, and every second this dip is lasting, we’re buying it faster than they can mine it. Until further notice, industrial demand has not halted. I did a bit of trading, and more silver went through my hands than in all my life, just this Februari. People are buting like the supermarket is empty and all there still is on the shelves is super duper bio non-GMO whole wheat bread. My dealer says it best, it’s a buying mania. nothing less.
In the mean time, wholesalers are losing the trust of dealers. Heck, even mints are letting customers down. Want Libertads? You’re not getting any, tough luck.
Want silver? Perth stuff all sold out. Wildlife, sold out. Want a monsterbox of Philharmonikers? All we have left and the last guy actually backed up a truck.
I cannot but imagine we are in the middle of what must be the worse stress test to the silver bullion supply chain ever. Most dealers have crappy stock to begin with, so they only order from wholesalers when prepayment arrives. Unfortunately almost, my dealer tries to only sell from stock. I didn’t get my tubes of Antelopes today, sold out before my sunday’s order was picked. Kind of a bummer, although I can now re-order 3% lower maybe.
ANYWAY. Tell me, not about the stupid paper. Tell me when times is running out to buy. Tell me about the disconnect in paper and physical prices. Are the Perth/Canadian/US mint still exporting at all? Not hearding their own product?
OK on the COMEX, have any strong long hands appeared to get delivery? This frenzy cannot last. Where is the silver coming from if so many well-off are diving into silver head first now?
@XC Skater your a man after my own heart. All this whining about the spot being smashed down is not the true value of silver, you said it bud their going crazy out there buying it up. Hell I don’t even go on ebay no more as there is no deals to be had. Hell the paper price for a roll of quarters is $206.00 but try and buy them for that on ebay, more like $250.00.
A true stacker buys even on the dips and up’s for we know what is coming down the road later on.
Keep Stacking my friend and thanks for making my evening with your post.
I just buy. I buy the dips. I`ve been wrong on my predictions, but I believe this is the bottom. It may be a good time to discuss exit strategy. As i feel some week hands may be selling now.
My taste in silver has changed. I now only buy ASE`s and junk. Counterfitting is becoming a real problem.
If the price gets to $50.00 I will dump all my generic rounds and art bars. Quickly. If we achieve $50.00, I feel like there may be some real problems in this country, and my junk and ASE`s may become real handy, and i will use them to negotiate my way through life. If negotiations fail, their are other means I may employe.
For what it`s worth, my advise is HOLD FAST. Buy if you can.
@Silver Dollar, I am with you on only buying .gov mint coins & pre-1965 ‘Junk.’ And I’ve also separated my stack into those coins which are in nice condition & the rarer dates/mint-marks, vs. the generic rounds, worn coins like Barber ‘smoothies,’ and coins with holes or rim dings.
This latter stack will be sold the next time Silver spikes.
Mammoth, what do you expect to bay from the sold worse junk? Gold? Silver spikes historically were good swap moments into gold. Especially that last one, as gold was allowed to rally further for a while. We could have doubled our silver ounces in a very short time there.
@XC Skater, you asked a good question. When Silver spikes and lowers the Gold-Silver ratio, that is a good time to trade the white metal for the yellow. But what I may do instead, is sell the worst of my Silver and then just sit on the cash until it spikes back down again.
As much as we would like to see $100/0z, the reality is that we are likely to just see more of the price volatality over the next few years, that we have observed in the preceding few years. I may be wrong, but for the near future I see myself doing some trading alongside my stacking.
Buy low and sell high seems to be a good strategy.
Update: it seems that across Europe, the 10oz and kilo coins from Perth Mint (and possible others) have been priced up by some 4% of additional premium. Only careless shops, both with and without stock, are lagging behind.
It’s hard to predict huh, what will be the best thing to do at $50, $100, and beyond.
I used to plan to swap half of my silver (100% all-in) to gold when we reach a 35 to 30 gold-silver-ratio. In case we’d go back up, and I’d be hedged. Go into cash, that would only work out if cash devalued slower than either precious metal. I don’t like cash, it can devalue by factor 3 overnight (Argentina, the day before yesterday retty much). Not planning to take such a risk with half my stack. I like to make quick transactions. When I sell a bit, I want to buy back quickly. Also in a down trending market, as I’ve seen stock levels flush empty in front of my eyes. One comfort: gold is unlikely to ever go out of stock. At least, I don’t see that happening for a while.
I don’t currently see myself exiting PM for something like real estate at least until silver has caught up with gold, say at least under 15. From there it might go pretty quick, dip at 7 for instance, who knows. When we start getting close to those figures, it may be wise to phase out of any kind of collectors coins, and into easy-to-move bars or monsterboxes. Hitting a good exit point might be about walking into the local bullion dealer with the best buy-back price on generic bullion. The loss of spread may be less that waiting a week to unload on craigslist or otherwise. And yeah, really close to what is perceived as a PM peak/GSR bottom, swap to recognizable gold. Compact. Easy to take to the country where you’ll buy a vineyard or hotel or something.
" Black flies have been far worse than the mosquitoes... they leave oozing welts, even blood running down your legs/arms. Not many lakes down here on the prairie and they are over run with the same ski crowd. Minnesota River has decent fishing for walleye and big flathead catfish though. "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
" @Mammoth I would not mind doing direct deals if the Doc did not sell bullion on the site, I don't think it is right to "steal" customers from someone paying to keep the site up and running :)
And I don't have any Numism... "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
" @MaryB That is what I was afraid of...seems like you are doing the best that you can with the availability!
Man, aren't the mosquito's like hummingbirds when the weather gets hot? I do admire you for being able to live ... "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
" Mammoth you won't find dimes under $1.75 anywhere online unless you can buy huge quantities. Small stackers like myself who are happy to grab $3 face of dimes here and there pay what you have to. And I prefer USG 90% coins over generic rounds. "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
" @coinbuysell - actually, some of us folks here on SD have done coin deals with other members, we just keep it 'under the wire.' I myself have done three - and yes there was a 'trust-factor' involved - but all three de... "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
" Next month is May, and we all know that saying:
"Sell in May and walk away."
In other words - from now until Labor day - the PM market may continue to be a real yawner.
Having said that, there is always the possibility of a price-shock due to world events. "Reply To: starting to get worried. Any ideas?
" Look out in SW Minnesota and see how many big cities there are, I live in a town of 280 people, 2 nearest cities are 6k and 12k population. One has a "coin store" in the pawn shop. He wants $5 for a single dime. So I buy online and get what I can find cheap. And it is very rare to find dimes anyw... "Reply To: How off the mark am I? Or am I?
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