Eric Sprott: Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left???

Somewhere deep in the bowels of the world’s Western central banks lie vaults holding gargantuan piles of physical gold bars… or at least that’s what they all claim. The gold bars are part of their respective foreign currency reserves, which include all the usual fiat currencies like the dollar, the pound, the yen and the euro.

Collectively, the governments/central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Switzerland, Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are believed to hold an impressive 23,349 tonnes of gold in their respective reserves, representing more than $1.3 trillion at today’s gold price. Beyond the suggested tonnage, however, very little is actually known about the gold that makes up this massive stockpile. Western central banks disclose next to nothing about where it’s stored, in what form, or how much of the gold reserves are utilized for other purposes. We are assured that it’s all there, of course, but little effort has ever been made by the central banks to provide any details beyond the arbitrary references in their various financial reserve reports.

Our analysis of the physical gold market shows that central banks have most likely been a massive unreported supplier of physical gold, and strongly implies that their gold reserves are negligible today. If Frank Veneroso’s conclusions were even close to accurate back in 1998 (and we believe they were), when coupled with the 2,300 tonne net change in annual demand we can easily identify above, it can only lead to the conclusion that a large portion of the Western central banks’ stated 23,000 tonnes of gold reserves are merely a paper entry on their balance sheets – completely un-backed by anything tangible other than an IOU from whatever counterparty leased it from them in years past. At this stage of the game, we don’t believe these central banks will be able to get their gold back without extreme difficulty, especially if it turns out the gold has left their countries entirely. We can also only wonder how much gold within the central bank system has been ‘rehypothecated’ in the process, since the central banks in question seem so reluctant to divulge any meaningful details on their reserves in a way that would shed light on the various “swaps” and “loans” they imply to be participating in.

We realize that some readers may scoff at any analysis of the gold market that hints at “conspiracy”. We’re not talking about conspiracy here however, we’re talking about stupidity. After all, Western central banks are probably under the impression that the gold they’ve swapped and/or lent out is still legally theirs, which technically it may be. But if what we are proposing turns out to be true, and those reserves are not physically theirs; not physically in their possession… then all bets are off regarding the future of our monetary system.

Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??

By: Eric Sprott & David Baker

Twelve years ago, few would have cared what central banks did with their gold. Gold had suffered a twenty year bear cycle and didn’t engender much excitement at $255 per ounce. It made perfect sense for Western governments to lend out (or in the case of Canada – outright sell) their gold reserves in order to generate some interest income from their holdings. And that’s exactly what many central banks did from the late 1980’s through to the late 2000’s. The times have changed however, and today it absolutely does matter what they’re doing with their reserves, and where the reserves are actually held. Why? Because the countries in question are now all grossly over-indebted and printing their respective currencies with reckless abandon. It would be reassuring to know that they still have some of the ‘barbarous relic’ kicking around, collecting dust, just in case their experiment with collusive monetary accommodation doesn’t work out as planned.

You may be interested to know that central bank gold sales were actually the crux of the original investment thesis that first got us interested in the gold space back in 2000. We were introduced to it through the work of Frank Veneroso, who published an outstanding report on the gold market in 1998 aptly titled, “The 1998 Gold Book Annual”. In it, Mr. Veneroso inferred that central bank gold sales had artificially suppressed the full extent of gold demand to the tune of approximately 1,600 tonnes per year (in an approximately 4,000 tonne market of annual supply). Of the 35,000 tonnes that the central banks were officially stated to own at the time, Mr. Veneroso estimated that they were already down to 18,000 tonnes of actual physical. Once the central banks ran out of gold to sell, he surmised, the gold market would be poised for a powerful bull market… and he turned out to be completely right – although central banks did continue to be net sellers of gold for many years to come.

As the gold bull market developed throughout the 2000’s, central banks didn’t become net buyers of physical gold until 2009, which coincided with gold’s final break-out above US$1,000 per ounce. The entirety of this buying was performed by central banks in the non-Western world, however, by countries like Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the Philippines… and they have continued buying gold ever since. According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, a precious metals research agency, non-Western central banks purchased 457 tonnes of gold in 2011, and are expected to purchase another 493 tonnes of gold this year as they expand their reserves.1 Our estimates suggest they will likely purchase even more than that.2 The Western central banks, meanwhile, have essentially remained silent on the topic of gold, and have not publicly disclosed any sales or purchases of gold at all over the past three years. Although there is a “Central Bank Gold Agreement” currently in place that covers the gold sales of the Eurosystem central banks, Sweden and Switzerland, there has been no mention of gold sales by the very entities that are purported to own the largest stockpiles of the precious metal.3 The silence is telling.

Over the past several years, we’ve collected data on physical demand for gold as it has developed over time. The consistent annual growth in demand for physical gold bullion has increasingly puzzled us with regard to supply. Global annual gold mine supply ex Russia and China (who do not export domestic production) is actually lower than it was in year 2000, and ever since the IMF announced the completion of its sale of 403 tonnes of gold in December 2010, there hasn’t been any large, publicly-disclosed seller of physical gold in the market for almost two years.4 Given the significant increase in physical demand that we’ve seen over the past decade, particularly from buyers in Asia, it suffices to say that we cannot identify where all the gold is coming from to supply it… but it has to be coming from somewhere.

To give you a sense of how much the demand for physical gold has increased over the past decade, we’ve listed a select number of physical gold buyers and calculated their net change in annual demand in tonnes from 2000 to 2012 (see Chart A).

CHART A
ChartA.gif
Numbers quoted in metric tonnes.
† Source: CBGA1, CBGA2, CBGA3, International Monetary Fund Statistics, Sprott Estimates.
†† Source: Royal Canadian Mint and United States Mint.
††† Includes closed-end funds such as Sprott Physical Gold Trust and Central Fund of Canada.
^ Source: World Gold Council, Sprott Estimates.
^^ Source: World Gold Council, Sprott Estimates.
^^^ Refers to annualized increase over the past eight years.

As can be seen, the mere combination of only five separate sources of demand results in a 2,268 tonne net change in physical demand for gold over the past twelve years – meaning that there is roughly 2,268 tonnes of new annual demand today that didn’t exist 12 years ago. According to the CPM Group, one of the main purveyors of gold statistics, the total annual gold supply is estimated to be roughly 3,700 tonnes of gold this year. Of that, the World Gold Council estimates that only 2,687 tonnes are expected to come from actual mine production, while the rest is attributed to recycled scrap gold, mainly from old jewelry.5 (See footnote 5). The reporting agencies have a tendency to insist that total physical demand perfectly matches physical supply every year, and use the “Net Private Investment” as a plug to shore up the difference between the demand they attribute to industry, jewelry and ‘official transactions’ by central banks versus their annual supply estimate (which is relatively verifiable). Their “Net Private Investment” figures are implied, however, and do not measure the actual investment demand purchases that take place every year. If more accurate data was ever incorporated into their market summary for demand, it would reveal a huge discrepancy, with the demand side vastly exceeding their estimation of annual supply. In fact, we know it would exceed it based purely on China’s Hong Kong gold imports, which are now up to 458 tonnes year-to-date as of July, representing a 367% increase over its purchases during the same period last year. If the imports continue at their current rate, China will reach 785 tonnes of gold imports by year-end. That’s 785 tonnes in a market that’s only expected to produce roughly 2,700 tonnes of mine supply, and that’s just one buyer.

Then there are all the private buyers whose purchases go unreported and unacknowledged, like that of Greenlight Capital, the hedge fund managed by David Einhorn, that is reported to have purchased $500 million worth of physical gold starting in 2009. Or the $1 billion of physical gold purchased by the University of Texas Investment Management Co. in April 2011… or the myriad of other private investors (like Saudi Sheiks, Russian billionaires, this writer, probably many of our readers, etc.) who have purchased physical gold for their accounts over the past decade. None of these private purchases are ever considered in the research agencies’ summaries for investment demand, and yet these are real purchases of physical gold, not ETF’s or gold ‘certificates’. They require real, physical gold bars to be delivered to the buyer. So once we acknowledge how big the discrepancy is between the actual true level of physical gold demand versus the annual “supply”, the obvious questions present themselves: who are the sellers delivering the gold to match the enormous increase in physical demand? What entities are releasing physical gold onto the market without reporting it? Where is all the gold coming from?

There is only one possible candidate: the Western central banks. It may very well be that a large portion of physical gold currently flowing to new buyers is actually coming from the Western central banks themselves. They are the only holders of physical gold who are capable of supplying gold in a quantity and manner that cannot be readily tracked. They are also the very entities whose actions have driven investors back into gold in the first place. Gold is, after all, a hedge against their collective irresponsibility – and they have showcased their capacity in that regard quite enthusiastically over the past decade, especially since 2008.

If the Western central banks are indeed leasing out their physical reserves, they would not actually have to disclose the specific amounts of gold that leave their respective vaults. According to a document on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) website regarding the statistical treatment of the Eurosystem’s International Reserves, current reporting guidelines do not require central banks to differentiate between gold owned outright versus gold lent out or swapped with another party. The document states that, “reversible transactions in gold do not have any effect on the level of monetary gold regardless of the type of transaction (i.e. gold swaps, repos, deposits or loans), in line with the recommendations contained in the IMF guidelines.”6 (Emphasis theirs). Under current reporting guidelines, therefore, central banks are permitted to continue carrying the entry of physical gold on their balance sheet even if they’ve swapped it or lent it out entirely. You can see this in the way Western central banks refer to their gold reserves. The UK Government, for example, refers to its gold allocation as, “Gold (incl. gold swapped or on loan)”. That’s the verbatim phrase they use in their official statement. Same goes for the US Treasury and the ECB, which report their gold holdings as “Gold (including gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped)” and “Gold (including gold deposits and gold swapped)”, respectively (see Chart B). Unfortunately, that’s as far as their description goes, as each institution does not break down what percentage of their stated gold reserves are held in physical, versus what percentage has been loaned out or swapped for something else. The fact that they do not differentiate between the two is astounding, (Ed. As is the “including gold deposits” verbiage that they use – what else is “gold” supposed to refer to?) but at the same time not at all surprising. It would not lend much credence to central bank credibility if they admitted they were leasing their gold reserves to ‘bullion bank’ intermediaries who were then turning around and selling their gold to China, for example. But the numbers strongly suggest that that is exactly what has happened. The central banks’ gold is likely gone, and the bullion banks that sold it have no realistic chance of getting it back.

CHART B
ChartB.gif
Sources:
1) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Documents/reserves/2012/Aug/tempoutput.pdf
2) http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/IR-Position/Pages/08312012.aspx
3) http://www.ecb.int/stats/external/reserves/html/assets_8.812.E.en.html
4) http://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/account/zai1205a.pdf
5) http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm
6) http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/annrep_2011_komplett/source

Notes:
ECB Data as of July 2012. Bank of Japan data as of March 31, 2012.

* European Central Bank reserves is composed of reserves held by the ECB, Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland.
** Bank of Japan only lists its gold reserves in Yen at book value.

Our analysis of the physical gold market shows that central banks have most likely been a massive unreported supplier of physical gold, and strongly implies that their gold reserves are negligible today. If Frank Veneroso’s conclusions were even close to accurate back in 1998 (and we believe they were), when coupled with the 2,300 tonne net change in annual demand we can easily identify above, it can only lead to the conclusion that a large portion of the Western central banks’ stated 23,000 tonnes of gold reserves are merely a paper entry on their balance sheets – completely un-backed by anything tangible other than an IOU from whatever counterparty leased it from them in years past. At this stage of the game, we don’t believe these central banks will be able to get their gold back without extreme difficulty, especially if it turns out the gold has left their countries entirely. We can also only wonder how much gold within the central bank system has been ‘rehypothecated’ in the process, since the central banks in question seem so reluctant to divulge any meaningful details on their reserves in a way that would shed light on the various “swaps” and “loans” they imply to be participating in. We might also suggest that if a proper audit of Western central bank gold reserves was ever launched, as per Ron Paul’s recent proposal to audit the US Federal Reserve, the proverbial cat would be let out of the bag – with explosive implications for the gold price.

Notwithstanding the recent conversions of PIMCO’s Bill Gross, Bridegwater’s Ray Dalio and Ned Davis Research to gold, we realize that many mainstream institutional investors still continue to struggle with the topic. We also realize that some readers may scoff at any analysis of the gold market that hints at “conspiracy”. We’re not talking about conspiracy here however, we’re talking about stupidity. After all, Western central banks are probably under the impression that the gold they’ve swapped and/or lent out is still legally theirs, which technically it may be. But if what we are proposing turns out to be true, and those reserves are not physically theirs; not physically in their possession… then all bets are off regarding the future of our monetary system. As a general rule of common sense, when one embarks on an unlimited quantitative easing program targeted at the employment rate (see QE3), one had better make sure to have something in the vault as backup in case the ‘unlimited’ part actually ends up really meaning unlimited. We hope that it does not, for the sake of our monetary system, but given our analysis of the physical gold market, we’ll stick with our gold bars and take comfort as they collect more dust in our vaults, untouched.

1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/central-bank-gold-buying-seen-reaching-493-tons-in-2012-by-gfms.html
2 See notes in Chart A.
3 http://www.gold.org/government_affairs/reserve_asset_management/central_bank_gold_agreements/
4 http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/goldfaqs.htm
5 Mine supply estimate supplied by World Gold Council; YTD gold mine production data suggests that total 2012 gold mine supply will come in lower around 2,300 tonnes, ex Russia and China production. In addition, Frank Veneroso has recently published a new report that warns that the supply of recycled scrap gold could drop significantly going forward due to the depletion ofthe inventories of industrial scrap and long held jewelry over the past decade.
6  http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/statintreservesen.pdf

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Comments

  1. They don’t have to worry about the gold they lost.  They simply have to write a new law and confiscate whatever gold resources remaining in their respective country.  They will be very happy to give you inflated fiat for a marked down value of any gold you may hold.  After all, its theirs. 

  2. Gord sold ours at the brown bottom, so no, I bet england has none. That and all the muppets selling their real money for fiat at we buy your gold shops. 

  3. This is a great article by Sprott/Baker. They make a pretty compelling argument that the CB’s have lent-out and rehypothicated a good portion of their metals. Brilliant.

  4. maybe open Sprott/Baker PM
    LOCAL   Banks

  5. Eric presents with critical thinking and careful research what we have known for a while, using our gut instincts, that gold, like silver, is an increasingly scarce commodity.  SA’s miner strikes just exacerbate the problem  The Western Central Banks?  Stupid is as Stupid does.  23,000 tons at present value would not cover 1 year of our deficit or one twelfth out our debt.

    • “23,000 tons at present value would not cover 1 year of our deficit or one twelfth out our debt.”

      Well… certainly not at the current cartel suppressed prices, anyway.  How about when gold is the “last man standing” in the financial realm?  If gold were valued at, oh, say, $50k per oz., there would be a lot more buying power there.  Not that the world doesn’t need a debt reset, of course.  If one ever does come and we don’t just get an enormous uncontrolled financial blow-up, a lot of things might become possible that are not today… such as REALLY expensive gold and silver. 

  6. At a certain price in USD even gold will be overvalued.  That price is much high than iGold is now.  I would say conservatively, at least $10,000.

    • We cannot measure such a price or value in terms of a dying fiat currency.  How many Zimbabwe dollars would it take to buy an oz. of gold?  All of them?  Hard to say other than there is no real way to answer that given the utter worthlessness of a Zimbabwe dollar and the fact that no one would trade their gold for that currency, no matter how much of it was offered.  It would be better to price something like crude oil in terms of grams of gold.  That way, we have 2 items of real value being used to measure the value of the other and not something of intrinsic value priced in something that is not intrinsically valuable.

    • @Ed_B Sadly, there are some idiots who will sell their gold and silver to buy some Zimbabwe dollars. Here is a video below of a guy who is telling us that we should sell our silver and buy these worthless Zimbabwe dollars.


    • @SumKid

      Yes, I have seen that video before and do not know if the guy in the video is serious and insane or if he is just being super-sarcastic.  Either way, HE is welcome to all of the Z-bucks he can buy while the rest of us continue to buy and hold REAL money.  :-)

    • @Ed_B He also accepts other paper currencies that have failed such as the German’s Mark, etc. Now that makes me question about what he’s going to do with all these paper currencies that have failed?

  7. Absolutely believe Sprott/Baker’s analysis is correct.  Think back to all those IMF gold sales.  No one every reported a fleet of Brink’s trucks leaving the vault.  It was all paper.  Sprott exposed their charade when he stepped up and offered to buy all 180 tonnes from the last IMF sale.  The IMF would not sell to him, because they couldn’t.  Because Sprott wanted to take delivery and put the gold in his vault.
     

  8. There are rumors of bullion banks that will accept your PM’s and give you a debit card to use against them. Another way to fleece the sheeple I think.

  9. MaryB  I sent you a post on the question you posed about 9mm vs 45 cal. It somehow slipped over to my avatar section when my posts reside. If you want to review it I made a good case for 9mm for several reasons.  If you want to call me then emal doc and he will share my phone #.  I will be out of commission thursday Oct 4-6 with hip replacement surgery. And then back to action probably by sunday.  Probably needed replacing due to carrying a heavy 45 cal.

    • Best of luck with that hip surgery, AG.  My sister had that last year and it worked out really well for her.  Hope that yours goes well and that your recovery is swift and complete.

      Re:  9mm – good penetrator, 45 acp – good stopper.  I have one of each and both have their uses.

    • AG12K….consider the G23.  Smaller frame.  Plenty of power with the right round.  And you can save the other hip.  Plus the TSA, SSA, NOAA, and the Forrest Service have 1.6 billion rounds they can share with you.

  10. Two thumbs way up for Sprott & Baker. :D

  11. Good article. I can barely see how it can be otherwise.

    This topic always leads me to wonder: what does it mean to me as silver stacker? Imagine that the disappearance of gold is worse than that of silver. And that the market will pile on the physical gold market, to secure whatever is still left to buy. Will silver still act as a leveraged gold? Or will the silver price stay level while gold explodes, sending the goldsilverratio to 100+ and 200+? As long as silver is not pegged to gold in a fixed ratio, there are chances of parity and 3-digit seperation in perceived value.
    I am 100% all-in with silver, and can’t help but wonder… Am I taking a big risk to gamble on silver only? Silver was supposed to be the scarse one, right? Well, at least we know China is securaing enough gold to make sure the world doesn’t completely run out, although they do have a tendency to sit on commodities that are universally appreciated…  

    • XC….Couple of things to consider.  There are no stock pies of above ground silver like there is of gold.  When the masses pile into PM’s they will pile into silver because they simply will not have the funds to buy a gold coin.  So, percentage wise silver will see the biggest increase.

    • I hear you ugly dog. But it seems the silver craze may only happen AFTER someone failed to get delivery of silver. It may need to actually and completely run out. All vaults on a continent going to zero, rather than running on fumes as they may already be at this moment. This requires more than just exposure of a the paper game, we have to do the work, and get silver all transferred to strong hands. my hands are very strong, I will not be among those selling when we hit $100. *3-4 is not why I went into silver. But we won’t see these figures before either the gold silver ratio drops, or gold goes really berserk.
      Silver stackers have beenn trying for years to beat supply and deplete reserves, but so far we’ve come short.
      I would like to understand the various scenarios of the end game. If we are to have spikes in the gold silver ratio like 100, I need to really prepare myself, and diversify like there is no tomorrow. I have a small stack only, and thus gamble all-in on silver, expecting to see a ratio of 15 or lower in the next 5-10 years. I’ll be happy with 10, and dare not think of 1 which is spoken of sometimes. I will sell most for land at 1, the way I see things now. Things might get really volatile in new levels of magnitude by then. The price of a proper house might dip to a few kgs of silver, and the next week be a couple dozen kgs again. I could be wrong and actually hope to be (and then, usually am not when I wish to be). I’d like to have a nice year of time while house prices bottom in silver, to pick a nice one for me.

  12. What it means to me, XC, is that fiat paper is going away one of these days as the failed experiment that it is.  At some point, we likely will be forced, kicking and squealing, to accept a commodity backed currency of some kind.  If fiat dies the ugly death that it deserves SOMETHING will have to take its place and yet another un-backed-by-anything-real fiat currency just does not seem a viable replacement.  The bottom line for me is to keep stacking silver and gold as one can afford them.  But don’t forget about stacking food, water, meds, tools, ammo, etc.  Those things WILL become incredibly valuable and useful when the SHTF.  Notice that I did not say “IF” the SHTF.  It IS going to and it is only a matter of time.  How much time?  Nobody knows but I am thinking sometime in 2014-15.  If sooner than that, we still have some preps made so we’ll be better off than many others who do not.  If later than that, we will be given a tremendous bonus via having extra time to get ready for it.  This must not be squandered but used wisely as time is the most valuable commodity there is.
     

  13. Thanks Ed, but ammo is THE way to incewase likelyhood of being shot yourself, I’ll pass. BTW I’d get jailed in my country for being a suspected terrorist.

    Yes, food, I need to stack that from now on. This month I’ll be in Latvia, hope to get a pile of tobacco there with lower tax on it (poor country, cheap tobacco). I don’t smoke at all, but see a potential for having a vacume packed stash of tobacco. I bet my neighbour will trade me his garden for it when the supply of tobacco stops…
    Hygiene products, cannned foods, water check, need to get them all. 

    • “…but ammo is THE way to incewase likelyhood of being shot yourself, I’ll pass.”

      I support your right to be passive but must agree to disagree.  I refuse to be a victim of those who do not obey the law… ANY law… and will defend myself, my family, and my property with everything I have.  This is my choice.  Others can choose to do that or not as they see fit.  I strongly disagree that government will provide all the protection we need.  There are just too many examples in which those who needed help did not get it in time.  Remember… when a violent confrontation is seconds from happening, the police are only minutes away.
       

  14. Interesting article from someone I have respected for many years. From an Australian point of view the custodian of Australia’s 80 tonnes of “official” gold is the Reserve Bank of Australia. As Eric says western central banks list gold holdings as gold in possession and gold on loan as one line item, Australia is no different. Although in Australia’s case they do list Gold loans in the Net Profits part of their balance sheet as a gold loans earn income. In Australia’s case there seems to be no gold on loan based on zero income received. 
    The relevant section in the RBA’s annual statement deals with gold in the following fashion:

    (c) Gold
    Gold holdings (including gold on loan to other institutions) are valued at the Australian dollar equivalent of
    the 3 pm fix in the London gold market on balance date. Revaluation gains and losses on gold are transferred
    to the gold revaluation reserve. The RBA lends gold to financial institutions participating in the gold market. As
    outlined in Note 1(b), gold loans are a financial instrument and the RBA accounts for them in accordance with
    AASB 139 and reports these loans under AASB 7.
    Link to RBA 2012 annual financial statement is: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/annual-reports/rba/2012/pdf/fin-statements.pdf
    Eric is also spot on when he says that these banks refuse to disclose the location of their gold holdings. I have been having an on/off battle with the RBA on this point all year, including having a FOI request rejected.
    For my posts on this issue go: here and here

  15. the worrying thing is that when it all collapses i wonder if we will see a new round of confiscations followed by a reset of the gold price … keep stackin but keep it hidden

    • The public in the U.S. has very little gold and it probably wouldn’t be worth the effort.  Isn’t the figure still less than 1% have ANY investments in gold or silver bullion or stocks?  And I would wager of this 1% that most of that money is in stocks or precious metal mutual funds.
      Remember back in the 1930′s when they confiscated gold it was still being used as legal tender.  Almost everyone had a few gold coins and a lot of people had 20 or 30 oz.  Today that is simply not the case.
       
       

  16. Interesting question, Eric.

    Now I will ask you one:

    Have you purchased enough physical silver to cover your PSLV clients’ exposure?   

  17. If the Fort Knox still have its gold, then there would of been an audit right now to see how many ounces are there. The last time that an audit happened was in the 1950′s. The reason why I think that there’s no more gold inside the Fort Knox is because we aren’t in the gold standard anymore so the government would of sold them.
     

  18. Awesome post/contrib

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