Doug Casey: We Are Going to Have a Fantastic Depression, Gold/Silver More Important to Own than 1971 or 2001!

empire revoltDoug Casey of CaseyResearch.com warns, “Were going into what I call ‘The Greater Depression.’ It’s going to be much more serious than what happened in the 1930′s. . . . A depression is a period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly.” Casey explains, “There is a gigantic amount of debt in the U.S. at all levels—governmental, corporate and individual. Debt is a sign you have been living above your means. It’s a debt bubble, and this is a major reason the government wants interest rates low. When interest rates rise, it makes it harder for people in debt to service that debt. They are simply delaying the inevitable at this point, but it is inevitable what is going to happen, and we are going to have a fantastic depression.
On physical gold and silver, Casey says, “Gold is more important to own and perhaps a better bargain now than in 1971 or 2001, and the same is true of silver.”
Join Greg Hunter he goes One-on-One with investor Doug Casey.

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Comments

  1. I’ve been wrong so much I don’t imagine I’m just unlucky…there is something I’m not getting…if you don’t mind read the following and tell me where gold (silver) should continue at these price levels or go lower…obviously I’m an idiot cause I get a different takeaway from this…
    Oct 12, 12 – German Audit court sez audits of gold advisable (but court only in advisory role to Bundesbank…cannot enforce this)…Bundesbank sez no need…and CNBC runs following article.
     
    “The Bundesbank is, of course, quite right in its opinion of the value of the examinations. In reality, it does not matter one bit whether the Federal Reserve Bank of New York actually has the German central bank’s gold or whether the gold is pure. As long as the Fed says it is there, it is as good as there for all practical purposes to which it might be put. It can be sold, leased out, used as collateral, employed to extinguish liabilities and counted as bank capital just the same whether it exists or not.
     
    The actual presence of the gold wouldn’t make a lick of difference unless, say, Germany’s central bank decided it wanted to start using the gold for some practical, non-monetary purpose like making watches.”
     
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49540593
     
    Oct 24, 12 – Buba requests 50 tons sent annually to Germany for 3 yrs for inspection plus “in negotiations” for full auditing rights
     
    Apparently, negotiations go nowhere…Fed explained that “in the interests of security and of the control process” no “viewings” are possible.
     
    Nov 3, 12 – Buba says fears over gold stored in Fed are “irrational”, “no doubts concerning credibility of the Fed”.
     
    Nov 18, 12 – Gold trading @ $1752, COMEX has 3.4 million oz deliverable
     
    Dec, 12 – Abe takes office in Japan, begins Yen depreciation
     
    Jan 1, 13 – GLD inventory @ 1350 tons
     
    Jan 16, 13 – Buba states gold redeploy, 300 tons from NY, 374 tons from Paris…both by 2020
     
    April 1, 13 – Gold trading @ $1581 and COMEX has 3 million oz deliverable
     
    May, 13 – Indian Gold imports hit record 162 tons for month of May…China imports 225 tons for May…Western mints / bullion near/@ record demand…Far in excess of global mining supply 240 tons/mo
     
    June, 13 – India adds 8% duty to imports and restrictions…plans to undercut 2012 import total of 845 tons
     
    August, 13 – India applies bans and restrictions on gold imports…imports cut to under 30 tons…India’s good buddy Pakistan bans gold imports to curb smuggling to India
     
    Dec 31, 13 – Japanese Yen/dollar depreciated from 80 to 107…near a 40% depreciation…Yen carry trade is 1:1 inverse of gold price
     
    Dec, 13 – US scrap (all non-mining output) exports collapse from 880 tons in ’08 to below 200 tons in ’13…Global scrap supply declines from 1775 tons to 1300…global mining supply increases by @ 10 tons/mo (120 tons/yoy from 2750–>2870 tons/yr)
     
    Jan 1, 14 – China takes delivery through SGE of roughly 80% of all annual mining supply (up from less than half in ’12 and significantly lower in previous yrs).
     
    Jan, 14 – Equties trading all-time highs (up nearly 200% from ’09 lows), Bonds @ depressionary lows
     
    Jan, 14 – Fed begins $10 B taper…further $10 B taper announced
     
    Jan, 14 – Fed announces it returned 5 tons of gold to Germany in first of 7yrs…China took delivery through SGE of minimum 2160 tons/yr
     
    Jan 31, 14 – Gold trading @ $1240 (-$500 decline or roughly 30%) and COMEX has 375 k oz deliverable (roughly a 90% decline in deliverable)
     
    Jan 31, 14 – GLD inventory @ 792 tons (roughly 40% drawdown)
     
    Feb, 14 – COMEX likely greater delivery’s requested for Feb than current Deliverable gold quantity
     
    Feb, 14 – India considering repealing ban on gold imports as of March, political considerations around rampant inflation absent a hedge is not good politics
     
    2015 – Gold mining output predicted to begin declining due to lowered capex, exploration, continuing cost of production below all-in-costs of mining
     
    AND GOLD IS UNIVERSALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECLINING IN PRICE ON WEAK DEMAND
     

    • Hambone
       
      Can you say … bullion banks forcing miners to forward sell their production just ‘to keep the lights on’?

    • Big money (US, Euro zone, UK, and Japan) is not worried about inflation, therefore they don’t seek a inflation hedge (gold).
      http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/29/us-eurozone-m-idUSBREA0S0K920140129
      “Slump in euro zone money supply growth highlights deflation risk”
       

    • @Hambone
      Your intelligence regarding the matter is not in question, what is in question is the amount of verifiable information you and the rest of us ( when i say “us” i mean those capable of discerning there proverbial ass from elbow ) have concerning the present state of affairs regarding where the worlds Gold is currently being redistributed to. Seems like China is the most likely cadidate as recipient of the drawdowns and the outright purchasing from any and all who can provide but at the staggering amount exceeding world production the only logical conclusion one may make is that ALL Governments are colluding to manipulate the price of metals downward untill such time as they are able to extricate themselves and their rich and powerful brethren from their precarious financial vulnerabiltiy. ie Stocks and bonds and leave the masses holding the debt. It will be an interesting year of that there is no doubt      

    • HERE’S AN ALL-STAR LINEUP OF BILLIONAIRE GOLD OWNERS WHO ARE VOTING WITH THEIR BILLIONS: 
      (and Right Now!) 
      Billionaires are Investing in Gold:

      Thomas Kaplan (over $2 billion invested in gold)

      “People view gold as emotionalwhen they demythologize it, when they look at it for what it is and the opportunity it represents, they’re going to say, “We really should own some of that.’ The question will then change to “Where do we get the gold?”

      John Paulson (over $4.6 billion invested in gold)
      “I view gold as a currency, not a commodity. It’s importance as a currency will continue to increase as the major central banks around the world continue to print money.”

      David Einhorn ($560 million net worth)
      “Gold is the money of choice and we would like to have a meaningful amount of our assets denominated in gold. It’s the biggest position in the fund”… “It’s the one kind of money Bernanke can’t print more of.”

      Seth Klarman (over $1 billion invested in gold)
      “There are no easy ways to navigate these turbulent waters. But because the greatest risks are of currency debasement and runaway inflation, protection against a currency collapse – such as exposure to gold – and against much higher interest rates seem like necessary hedges to maintain.”

      Jim Rogers (net worth of $300 million)
      “Gold will be the great investment over the next decade.”

      M.G. George Muthoot (net worth $1.1 billion)
      “If this business was as easy as it sounds, all my branch managers would be setting up their own gold loan companies.”

      George Soros (net worth of $22 billion)
      “The U.S. dollar is very weak. Investors are moving to real assets.”

      Eike Batista (net worth of $30 billion)
      “There is a massive shifting of wealth to new economic powers.”

      Carl Icahn (net worth of $12.5 billion)
      “The system is not working properly.”

      Paul Tudor Jones (net worth of $3.3 billion)
      “I have never been a gold bug, it is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And that time is now.”

      Michael Avery (holds $3.3 billion of Waddell & Reed fund in gold)
      “In 5,000 years of human history, gold has been the currency of choice, the store of value, when humans have called into question their governments’ efforts to solve problems by running printing presses and injecting money into the economy.”

      Marc Stern (holds $550 million of Bessemer Trust in gold)
      “At the core of the sharp downturn is an absence of confidence. Rising debt levels in Europe and the U.S., uncertainty about policymakers’ willingness to restore fiscal order, and increasingly cautious corporate sentiment that is consistent with slowing global growth are the chief culprits.”

      Eric Mindich (over $800 million invested in gold)
      “Gold is poised to complete its 11th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades, on the brink of a bear market.”

      Mikhail Prokhorov (over $6 billion invested in gold)
      “We’re looking now at what the world financial system is going to do with all this money that was printed during the financial crisis, if there’s continued inflation, we’ll see a global trend for raw materials and gold is not an exception. I’m optimistic that the gold price will stay at the same price or higher.”

      Carlos Slim (world’s richest man net worth $55 billion)
      “With the same things that were done in 2000 and 2001, when it was temporarily solved with big expenditures and very aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, aside from lowering taxes, we should be directing more money to the real economy, not to the financial economy. The volatility of the markets is so great that more is won or lost in a single day than in five years of accumulated interest. And that’s not a good thing.”

  2. These dire prognostications from ‘investment adviser’ types are only valid in the case where Peoples remain dependent on Plantation Scrip (Oh the cruel wind and rain, Mr Casey laments, how debt has devalued the poor banknote). On the other hand, if they rather break that chain and return to real natural Lawful money of their own making and in its broadest application, the ‘magic spell’ of the politicians and bankers is dissipated like so much a stench of flatulence.

    I know many on the forum cringe when I say this, but observers from the Austrian Economics viewpoint, especially its American faction, contrive ‘Free Market Liberty’ as justification to float credit in circulation as a Private Right, which I find stupid in the extreme. This … Private Right … is akin to endorsement of fashioning jewelry from radioactive cobalt, leaving ‘caveat emptor’ to ‘self-regulate’ a market in such items. History has unquestionably proven beyond doubt that circulating credit distorts price discovery throughout the entire economic matrix and beyond a critical threshold (ALWAYS exceeded at length), it causes severe crashes damaging EVERYONE indiscriminately … except, of course, those ‘investment adviser’ types.

    • @PatFields

      Agreed, Pat, not to mention the continuing confusion of credit with money.  Credit is one of those things, like grease, where small amounts in just the right places can make things work wonderfully well.  Unfortunately, some have seen this attribute as something that can and should be applied universally and that it will be salutatory in any amount and location.  It won’t, of course, for credit should only exist, with the possible exception of purchasing a home, in the very short term as a matter of convenience and not as a way of life.  It is terribly unfortunate that so many financial illiterates confuse being able to pay for something, usually on a monthly basis, with being able to afford it.  Perhaps that is the worst attribute of long-term debt… it destroys ones’ critical thinking ability.
       

  3. Great Listen and I wonder why he’s in Argentina? I wouldn’t want to be there when it collapses. Lol
    it’s a welfare central in Europe the entire developed world is on the ragged edge. Keep Stacking

    • @Marchas45
       
      In chaos lies opportunity… perhaps that is why Mr. Casey spends so much time in Argentina.  Apparently, he chooses not to live there, which is also quite informative. 

  4. I wonder the same thing Charlie.  Casey built his version of Galt’s Gulch in a country that destroys its currency and defaults on its debts about every 10-15 years   I’d say it is a bit dangerous to one’s financial health to live in Argentina, even if it’s a nice place out in the hills.

    • @AGXIIK
       
      Didn’t he just say that he lived in Uruguay but spent a lot of time in Argentina, or was that when I dozed off for a few seconds.  ;-)
       
      Just kidding about dozing.  I had intended to watch to 10 minutes of that interview and ended up watching the entire thing.  Very interesting stuff in a number of ways.
       

  5. For those that are interested, ed steers gold and silver daily is hosted at the casey research site and is worth reading.

  6. Geez, I guess things are starting to get a little dicey, ya think?  We’ve had THREE financial wizards commit suicide in the past WEEK!
    Maybe we will start getting a bounce in PMs.  I would say next week could push the price up a little.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-31/third-banker-former-fed-member-found-dead-inside-week

    • Just wait until the prices for gold and silver increase considerably.  We may be hip deep in flying banksters by then.
       

    • We going to rename the ‘dead cat bounce’ to the obvious substitution?
      Too soon?

    • Dead Banker Bounce lol FUNNY!
      @mikeyj80
      Other than that, you’re obviously doing your best troll impression again, Mikey   :D
      Explain how we are going to go into this deflationary spiral with all these digital dollar$ floating around in the aether… 
      Betcha don’t have a clear cut mechanism or path for that to happen! Raising the BS flag here! 
       

    • undeRGRound  … “Explain how we are going to go into this deflationary spiral”
       
      Actually, that’s what HAS been happening … when we confine our definition of ‘deflation’ to it’s genuine meaning as regarding currency … NOT pricing of goods … it’s logical.

      Keeping in mind that all currency is loaned principal … the only source for the accruing interest on it, is further borrowing. There’s a plethora of data confirming that borrowing has precipitously fallen globally … a ‘Debt Saturation Juncture’.

      In this environment, the ‘float’ of currency is stagnant, Thus, with both principal and interest being pulled from an ever-shrinking ‘pool’ … we have classical deflation.

      I reason THIS to be the purpose of ‘QE’. To ‘bridge’ the shrinkage in the vain hope that borrowing (of interest service funding) will be revived through a new housing or stock ‘boom’.

      Think about it … the bankers and politicos are CONSTANTLY calling for … inflation … at a minimum level. THAT’S the interest service replenishment to the ‘float’ so crucial to the survival of the banknote scheme. It’s a design of infinitely growing co-generation of currency and debt, each by the other. It can systemically NEVER stop. It can only be ‘regulated’ by interest rate manipulation to ameliorate the growth within economic parameters.

      As it’s turned out, however; the current interest rate has been superseded by the … gross volume of debt … exceeding all possibility of offset by maximum productive capacity. The ‘monster’ has broken its chans and is run amok. NO ONE is in ‘control’. The thing has a life all its own now and has become an insatiable Maw, consuming everything it touches.

    • @undeRGRound
       
      Curious where I said we were headed for deflation?  Pat made a nice reply, but I’m not sure i’m the one who sparked it as i just suggested another blog worth a read and tried to make a funny, but thanks for the mention regardless :)

    • dangit, sorry guys I did not have the email box checked
       
      I KNOW we have to go thru “deflation” but I’m not so sure TPTB and the F’ed Govt. and F’ed Reserve are going to allow the deflationary wave (which is inevitable) to come crashing thru without Helicopter Ben’s prophecy coming to be FIRST. Plus, all this M3 (or whatever stage) FIAT likely has to have it’s day as well. Unless they find a way to 
      “put the $h!t back into the horse” and write off all the “digital dollars” before this happens. If they do a big debt jubilee like that then we all need to get a piece of that action. ALL OF US
      That’s why I’m asking for a mechanism @mikeyj80 ! Some type of a pathway to get from here to there. 

  7. Good interview… very informative.  I liked how Casey allowed for multiple definitions for a depression.  The one that I use is:  An extended period of falling national production coupled with persistently high unemployment”.  Sound familiar?  It should.  We’ve been in it since 2008, yet NOBODY is willing to step up and say so.  They simply do not use the “D” word.  Well, other than Peter Schiff and a couple of other Austrian economists, that is.  All we hear from the Keynesian puppets in the financial media is that Wall Street is doing well.  While this is good, it’s not the whole story by a long shot.  When Main Street is doing well too, THEN we will be having a recovery and not before then.  For now, all we have is a lot of bogus numbers that were invented specifically not to relate the truth of our situation but to convince people that things are improving when they are not and that they should feel free to go out and spend money.  Lies from the BLS and the Fed will not improve our situation.  Only work can do that and well-paying work best of all.  When people can comfortably afford the things that they need to live AND have something left over to save or invest, THEN we will be in a recovery… but not until then.

    I definitely agree with Casey on his comments regarding “the greater depression”. I believe that we are seeing the leading edge of it now and have been for the past 5+ years. We know that none of the problems that came to a head in 2008 and very nearly collapsed the world banking system have been “fixed”. All of those problems have been papered over with printed money. This is not just a US problem but a world problem. The TBTF banks are not only still too big to fail but are even larger than they were then. The Sword of Damocles derivatives book that almost imploded in 2008, which was why AIG “had to be saved”, is not only still hanging over us by a thread but is now 50% or so larger than it was back then. The levels of sovereign debt are worse today than they were in 2008 and national tax receipts are lower than they were in years past because, in spite of tax increases, fewer people are employed. All of this adds up to the conclusion that severe economic problems are on their way to a country near you. Got gold, silver, and preps?

     

  8. Milk cows now beef cows later.   Good one. 
    The greatest milking parlor stall of them all – our houses.   When I bought my house in an NJ suburb, my yearly real estate taxes were ~$1900 per year, when I sold my house (phew), my yearly taxes we over $13,000 per year.   A steady rise of well over a dollar a day for every day I lived in the house.   MOOOO.  
    What Casey should be telling us – find a tax bomb shelter – no matter what country it is.  
    BTW not surprisingly, a review of US State finances put out by George Mason U late last year (surprising we have not heard in the media – lol) concluded that NJ was by far the worst of the worst – ranking 50th out of 50 in financial insolvency.   
    The bottom five NJ, IL, CN, MA, CA – all socialist unionized milking parlor states.  (Did you see the lawsuit going to the Supremes out of IL, people who take care of disabled family members were forced under law to pay union dues because they were doing the work of the unions?  So they are even milking the disabled as aided and abetted by the socialists running the state in bankruptcy!!!!) 
    Also – Never forget the lessons of Detroit.  Everyone knew they were insolvent – right up till they went bankrupt.  And the city worker’s and union pensions will reduced by 80% when all is said and done.  It looks like Detroit will need to crank up the milking machines…
    Aiding tax refugees will be a growth industry world wide as the aging population seeks to retire outside urban blast zones – far from the worst of the milking parlors.    

    • JerseyJoe … “lawsuit going to the Supremes out of IL, people who take care of disabled family members were forced under law to pay union dues because they were doing the work of the unions”
       
      As I see them, unions are largely economic cannibals. They’ll carve up anyone, from struggling young parents, kids to the elderly, just for a morsel added onto their already huge platter.

    • “So they are even milking the disabled as aided and abetted by the socialists running the state in bankruptcy!!!!) ”
       
      Why not?  These are some of the same cretins who are already taxing the heck out of the DEAD via inheritance taxes.  These are taxes on people who have paid taxes all their working lives, including on the small part that they manage to have left over at the end of their life.  But, what the heck!  Tax’em on that same money once again just because they are dead and can no longer fight back!  The word “ghouls” is insufficient to describe these minions of darkness.
       

    • a JERSEY is a kind of a cow LOL
       
       
      @PatFields
      wow, they’ll never tell you that at the union hall
      Dirty Ba$tard$ 

  9. RE Unions:
    Yes and a symbiotic tool of the Marxist-socialist Progressives.  
    In NJ, no dem can be elected without the support of the teacher’s union.  The union puts the candidates through a litmus test and decides who to back and then showers money on them.  Our local school budget is a farce when most of the decisions are made in Trenton.  

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