Legendary investor Don Coxe, Chairman of Coxe Advisors LLP, and former advisor to the $540 billion BMO Financial Group, has issued a powerful new commentary entitled, What Is China Up Too?
In this dispatch, Don spoke to the recent Chinese acquisition of a centerpiece of the U.S. meat production industry, the terrible Fed governor nomination choice now on the horizon, and of particular interest to our readers—an updated commentary on gold.

In the 70′s…the huge breakout in gold did not occur at a time of the worst inflation…it’s once the people lose faith in the paper money and the policies that are being pursued, that you get the rush into gold.
So the great game is going on at levels where there are big expiring contracts in gold…our work has been trading in the commodity, & I can simply tell you that the drama is unfolding where you’ve got this gigantic short position, and eventually the shorts are going to get scared.
So it looks like from my 
perspective, that we’ve seen the low in gold, and now we’re going to watch who loses the most when gold moves to the upside, which…is virtually inevitable.”

Silver Buffs Generic Add2
From Tekoa Da Silva:

Beginning at the 27:40 mark, Don noted that:

“What I believe is happening with gold is [that] we’re seeing the gigantic [long] positions that have been taken in the futures markets…[by] the speculators were wiped out, and what we have [now] is the largest short position in history on gold in the futures market.

On the other hand for the commercials, who are not speculators, who need to sell forward (go short) we’ve already seen a couple of gold companies reporting better earnings than expected because they had hedges in place. They have the lowest exposure in their short position—one of the lowest exposures in decades.

So you have those who know best are no longer short, as a matter of pure business principles, because they see that this just doesn’t make sense, and those who are pure speculators—with the biggest short position in history.

That kind of thing cannot survive if there’s…going to be any kind of continuation of these expansionary monetary policies. So therefore I don’t think it’s a matter of if, but when, that we’re going to see an upside breakout in gold.

I remind you that in the 70′s…the huge breakout in gold did not occur at a time of the worst inflation…it’s once the people lose faith in the paper money and the policies that are being pursued, [that] you get the rush into gold.

So [the] great game is going on at levels where there are big expiring contracts in gold…our work has been trading in the commodity, [and] I can simply tell you that the drama is unfolding where you’ve got this gigantic short position, and eventually the shorts are going to get scared. So it looks like from my perspective, that we’ve seen the low in gold, and now we’re going to watch who loses the most when gold moves to the upside, which…is virtually inevitable.”

This was a powerful new commentary issued by one of world’s most successful commodity fund advisors, and should be carefully contemplated by serious investors and market students.

To listen to Don’s conference call in its entirety (and to follow his regular work) visit: CoxeAdvisors.com

an incredibly powerful conglomeration of secret government agencies that seem to view Americans as the real threat.

Eagles sale

  1. Two sentences connected
    1.  When people lose their faith in paper currency and the policies being pursued
    2.  Anincredibly powerful aglomeration, concatenation, conglomeration (A sheet load)of secret government agencies that view li’l old us as  a real threat.
    Well Duh. 
    The government is screwing the pooch without a reach around and when the SHTF the homies like us are going to be pissed. The gummint is going to come down hard and fast on anyone who steps out of line. With the militarization of the police and SWAT teams on every street corner, and any threat or hint of dissention will be handled harshly.  Just you wait my pretties
      Will we be surprised?   Not exactly  We’ll be saying  “Why did it take this long?  We’ve seen this coming for months, years and even decades are prepared,  stocked with PMs  and other metallic goodies.  We’ll review this new paradigm of unreality in precious metal prices going up up up and dollar value  going down down down with a bemused grin and an  “I told you so” attitude and try to get past the rough patch.  I  wish there was a means for those who live near each other to form rally points to raft up when things get difficult

    • ”  I  wish there was a means for those who live near each other to form rally points to raft up when things get difficult ”
      But there is AGXIIK… and the Docs were insightful enough to provide the basis for that link and we are on it right now. This forum provides the means by which those who are willing to “link up” may do so. In the profile section of each registered member there is plenty of space for each member to add as much or as little about themselves as they see fit in order to facilitate a virtual “rolodex” of who we are and what we do. I’m going to spiffy up my profile and add some contact info. I entreat those interested to do the same. 

    • UPDATE: there is no place for a ” biography” on the profile for registrants on this sight. I’m thinking that could be something the Doc could incorporate in an individual’s profile. I’m not as tech savvy as I’d like to be…I’m working on it

    • In 1996 I met two automobile engineers in a bar in Stovepipe Wells. They were road testing ABS prototypes in the harsh environment of Death Valley. We talked all evening. They told me that in the United States there was an army of millions ready to act, if it should be necessary to rise against their gummint. I was shocked.
      I ask you, where is the organisation?

    • Those police have families, they will turn tail and run for home when SHTF just leaving troops to deal with. And those troops have families living among us too.

    • “Those police have families, they will turn tail and run for home when SHTF just leaving troops to deal with. And those troops have families living among us too.”
       
      Which is EXACTLY what DID happen in N.O. when hurricane Katrina hit.  Well, part of the cops did that.  The rest were busy stealing people’s guns without cause and infringing on their rights to have them.

  2. I had the privilege of getting to hear don coxe speak at a meeting about 4 years ago, the guy just seemed to get ‘it’ the whole macro piece with the mechanics of the real world, and could roll that up for the average guy like me to digest. Thanks for the post.

    • From Harvey Organ tonight  7/30/13
       
      Thus,  5036 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) for the month  of June until today  for 503,600 oz  and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan’s dealer side.

      JPMorgan’s dealer vault registers tonight 390,092.326 oz.
      Somehow we have a huge negative balance as   i) the gold has not left JPMorgan’s dealer account and has yet to settle
      and
      ii) it is now deficient by 113,507.68 oz   (390,092.326 inventory – 503,600 oz issued =  -113,507.68 oz)
      In other words, the entire 390,092.326 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan’s dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero,  plus the 113,507.68 of additional deficient gold
      JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013….. JPMorgan’s dealer account rests tonight at 390,092.326 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 113,207.68 oz of deficient gold…..
      How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
       
       
      Okay so been reading this nightly,  for weeks now, and am still not sure:
      Why it is happening?
      What it means?
      Will it just continue?
      Surely there are some SD posters that can contribute to my understanding….? 

    • @4-oz
       
      I’ve posted here about how these delivery reports work.  There are a lot of things in mkts in general and PMs in particular that I don’t understand.  The physical delivery and settlement of exchange traded contracts is something I have participated in in my day job for the last 5 years (and have been studied as a part of my day job for the last 10).  I therefore consider my understanding of this piece of the mkt to be very thorough.  Others here do not care (that is fine), and others may argue, but would encourage anyone to test my arguments if they disagree.  I think you will find that I try to be unbiased (for the most part).
       
      So where do we start… I’ll speak to gold, but the process is the same in silver.  First, there is no such thing as “dealer” inventory.  Similarly no such thing as “customer” inventory as harvey describes.  In the reports he references there are “Registered” and “Eligible” stocks, neither of which carry any connotation to the status of the owner of the physical gold.  The lines simply mean gold which is ready for delivery and has a warehouse receipt issued against it (Registered), and gold that meets the minimum requirements for delivery but does not have a warehouse receipt issued (Eligible).  Eligible gold could be gold that the owner has intention to use in comex transactions, or it could be gold that they just have parked in a warehouse out of convenience and at some day in the future they will pull that gold out.
       
      Next point, there are what is known as ‘house’ and ‘customer’ positions, but these can only be seen in a different report that I’ve not ever seen harvey reference.  House positions are ones that are for transactions made by the house account of the broker (FCM).  Example, in the last month in silver we’ve seen JP Morgan stop a lot of silver under it’s “house” account, this means that JP MO themselves are executing this.  Any transactions from the “customer” line are on behalf of customers who happen to clear with JP Morgan.  This could be you, me, a gold dealer, jewelry maker, mine, or even an oompa loompa, if he was so inclined as to create a futures account.
       
      There are two key points that harvey misses… the first is that a new delivery notice does *NOT* mean that new gold has to be brought into the vault to satisfy the delivery obligation (more on this later), and the second point he misses is that gold that is delivered must leave the warehouse.
       
      The instrument of delivery is a warehouse receipt (WHR).  If you are long and I am short (and I have a bar of gold sitting in Brinks depository in NY with a WHR issued against it… which means it will appear in the ‘registered’ line), I will transfer to you not the physical bar of gold, but the warehouse receipt giving you ownership.  At this time the delivery has been settled.  The brokers will do most of this work for you, and by the end of the month all shorts must issue WHRs to the long (or buy out of their paper position). If they can’t create a WHR because they don’t have the gold then they have to buy one from someone who has one, or is willing to create one on their behalf… the short then transfers that WHR to the long and the contract is settled.  Note, in the example between you and I, the delivery of the contract has been fulfilled, but as you have not yet set up a service to physically bring that bar to you, the bar of gold still is sitting in the brinks depository and is still reported as such by brinks, so the stocks numbers that are reported have not changed.
       
      Final point clarifying the point above.  Lets say I deliver to you, then the next day you deliver to AGXIIK (by giving him the same WHR I gave you), next day AGXIIK delivers to Ed_B, then the next day Ed_B delivers to Flying Wombat… who ultimately decides he will leave the gold in the warehouse as he may want to deliver it at some point in the future.  This may seem silly but often times is what happens.  So lets count the delivery notices, Me to you (1) / you to AG (2) / AG to Ed (3) / Ed to Wombat (4).  So 4 delivery notices have been posted, all satisfied with a WHR representing a singular bar of gold, and stocks are unchanged!
       
      Hope that helps, happy to clarify further.

    • Thank you mikeyj for your time and effort.
      The whole thing makes me think of an onion. An onion is really just the sum total of it’s skins.
      Sounds like what Harvey is chasing is just more smoke…just more ways these crooks cover their tracks while lining their pockets. 

    • I’ll add a little bias, I have participated in delivery transactions similar to what was described and I had no intent on profiting in a nefarious manner, but merely using the contract as described.  Often time these chains or ‘redeliveries’ happen because someone was not paying attention to their position and they were long during delivery and come in to work one morning and find out ‘oops, guess I stopped some gold.’  They then have to retender the position, resulting in a link in the chain.  You would be shocked at how often this happens (at least I am because in my opinion the amount of oopsies should be ‘zero’).  
       
      It does trouble me that these people trade money for a living.

      Also, in the comex delivery there is no covering your tracks. Want to know how much gold that jpmo has stopped for their house account this year? That data is available in seconds.

  3. Tawnyard  I believe the millions of us who would act against an oppressive government are not connected formally.  They are friends, families, congregation, affiliations, affinity groups, gun clubs, hunter groups, military groups and the like and they talk amongst themselves about the ‘what if scenarios’ These include the natural disasters thaat have become commonplace. The what ifs inclde violence as some live in dangerous urban areas.
    My friends and I rallied up for a pistol skill building class out in the tulies this weekend.  Aside from the obvious, a long series of tactical scenarios, Hogan’s alley, firing drills, educational material etc, we talked and we talked in length about the ‘what ifs’
    Half were former military with service ranging from Vietnam to Fallujah. Half were civilians like me. Several women too boot.
    Most veterans had been in the worst that war could delivery and came back Some carried their wounds and made it clear that they would not stand idly by if something happened that turned our less-than-benign against us ‘just folks’
    Ideas and plans are not in writing but certainly a sounding out of 18 like minded people talking out their views, gripes and what they would do should bad things happen did give us a commonality of understanding.
    Bad things are happening elsewhere in countries that 3 years ago were quite peaceful. I include in that group the country formerly known as Egypt.  I am not sure what it will be called in the near future.  Good people torn between anarchy and military coup. 
    Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal are in the throes of despair and incipient violence.  This is not lost on us. We are the 5% who see and understand what is happening behind the scene and are willing to act should the call arise. This country is worth fighting for. Great Britain was worth fighting for and many of my father’s friends fought on land and sea and in the air when GB was going through its worst days.
      So this invisible army is a real as the Home Guard in the UK and the quote accorded to Yamamoto when he said the invading Japanese troops would find an American with a rifle behind every blade of grass. In those days the weapons were turned outwards. Today, millions of military weapons are turned inwards to the home lands.
    We Average Joes and Janes are fairly peaceful, generous people, willing to go the extra mile and forgive to a fault
    But rub our fur the wrong way and there would be hell to pay.  Just sayin’
    Cheers

    • I have to agree with you @AGXIIK.  Some are trying to put together defensive organizations.  Some have already succeeded.  Most, I would say, have made their contacts and are awaiting the other shoe to drop.  I think it will work like the principle of 5 degrees of separation.  Someone who knows someone type of progression.  Many of us have combat skills and have taken oaths to support and defend.  Most have not forgotten that oath. 
       
      When the time comes, contacts will be made quickly. I just hope the organization falls into place rapidly. 
      I am an Ordinary Joe.

    • Even entire towns have banded together. Here people will defend town and the farm land around it. We have a city well that is drinkable water (high in iron and manganese but water is water in a pinch), grain elevator that always has grain on hand, local pig, turkey,chicken, beef farmers… the small towns 8 miles out are part of the self defense force and will help, especially defending the farms in the middle as prime food area.

    • Your situation sounds terrific, Mary.  Many of us would like something similar but will probably end up doing the best that we can with what we have.  I hope that your group has a mounted contingent.  4-hoof drive is awesome and works especially well when there is no gasoline or diesel to be had.  Mobility is of paramount importance in any conflict, whether for combat, E&E, or comms.

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