gold bull marketWhen the bulls are running for the doors, that is a sign that we have hit bottom and wise investors should hold on to their portfolios for the ride up, says Silver-Investor.com Editor David Morgan in this interview with The Gold Report .
It may take a couple of resource war-addled years for gold and silver prices to move back to profitable levels, but the right companies—and he points to five from the members-only Morgan Report files—could make money all the way up.


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From JT Long of The Gold Report

The Gold Report: When we interviewed you last, you mentioned the possibility of “resource wars” in 2014 as referenced in Michael Klare’s book of the same title. What will that look like to the average investor?

David Morgan: The resource wars have already started. Look at Mexico. It has a resource that it covets very much, and that’s energy. That is why the government levied a new tax designed primarily at energy but subsequently adds a 7.5% royalty on mining profits. Is it a war? Not per se, but it is detrimental to companies that operate in Mexico today and in the future. I think we will see even more of this kind of thing in 2014.

TGR: Last year was a volatile year for precious metals prices with silver going below $20/ounce ($20/oz) and gold bobbing around $1,200/oz at the end of the year. Are we still three or four years from $100/oz silver as you said in your last interview? What’s going to push it to that level?

DM: What’s going to push it to that level are fundamentals. There is no change fundamentally in why investors would buy gold in 2001 compared to why they would buy gold in 2013 or 2014. The fundamental fact is that there isn’t a nation state on earth that has a handle on the debt problem. Because of that, we’re going to see more people wake up to the need for precious metals, because precious metals are true money outside the framework of the current system.

The correction we had in silver and gold isn’t that abnormal in a major bull market. I’ve been through one bull market already in my lifetime. I watched gold go from the fixed price of $42.22/oz up to $200/oz, then to sell off to around the $100/oz level. It later advanced all the way back to the peak of $850/oz in January 1980. I have seen the damage a big shakeout in a major bull market can have. That experience makes me a little bit more hardened to weather the storm we just experienced.

However, I think that the worst is over. I think silver has bottomed. Gold probably has as well. This year, 2014, will be a rebuilding year. Depending on what happens in the global economic system, it’s possible that we could even see a very good year for the metals, but I don’t anticipate that. I’m anticipating a rebuild year where silver climbs back over $30/oz and gold travels up well over $1,600/oz, probably to the $1,700/oz level or higher depending on how the economy unfolds.

TGR: Precious metals experienced a nice little bump at the beginning of the year. Of the companies now in the resources market, what percentage will live to see an upturn in the metals prices? How many are just on the edge right now?

DM: That’s a good question, but I’m probably not the best to ask because we focus mostly on top-tier and mid-tier companies, companies that are producers or near producers. We do study a great deal of the junior exploration sector, but suggest very few. If I would venture a guess, of the micro-cap companies—$0.5–3 million—probably half will survive, maybe fewer than that.

It has been very difficult in the precious metals sector over the last couple of years. Even some of the best companies—I am thinking of one recently that has one of the richest gold mines in the world—can be mismanaged. That is why with some of these companies I tell people to only risk money they can lose because the payoff can be great, but they can lose it all, too. And some of my readers thank me for it later. That happened just this morning.

 

 

TGR: You mentioned Mexico’s new tax. What impact is that going to have on producers large and small there? Are there some companies that could do well even with the new royalty burdens?

DM: Yes, there are. We’re still working on our white paper on the topic, but I can outline it in general terms. If you’re a major producer, like First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) as an example, the new Mexican tax is going to cut into the bottom line, but major producers will be able to adjust to still make a profit. For a mid-tier company, it could have more of an effect because the margins are less. But in the junior sector, after this tax is paid, it’s going to be touch and go in many cases. The smaller companies that have very little margin or would need to be producing for a few years to become profitable are not going to be able to start as easily because their breakeven analysis is pushed out farther. So, basically, if a company is currently producing with wide margins, it will be OK. But companies just getting started or very small producers are going to have a tougher time.

TGR: Do you see this mining tax as a permanent thing or will the government see the error of its ways and rescind it?

DM: I really don’t know. There may be too much political pressure to take it back in the short term. It might be altered somewhat, but I don’t think it will come off entirely.

TGR: You mentioned First Majestic. The company just started production at the Del Toro silver mine in Mexico. Is that significant?

DM: Yes, it will help the bottom line, but I’m sure First Majestic would prefer that things were the way they were before this tax took place.

TGR: Your December Morgan Report included Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSO:TSX; SSRI:NASDAQ). You said the company is selling assets. Will that help profitability?

DM: It’s a decision by Silver Standard to cut costs and I will withhold judgment for now. Basically, this is a time when metals prices are pretty much near the cost of production for gold and silver miners across the board. Companies with low margins look at every possible way that they can increase the margins. One way is to cut costs. And one way to cut costs is to sell assets that someone else would want. Prices in the metals industry are notoriously volatile, and it’s always good to increase margins. But companies start looking a little harder in tough times than they would in a more robust environment for precious metals. Silver Standard initiated a cost reduction initiative in the first half of 2013 and costs could continue to decline for the next three quarters.

TGR: Outside of Mexico, what silver producers do you like?

DM: I’m fond of the royalty companies. It’s pretty hard on the silver side to go wrong with Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW:TSX; SLW:NYSE). The company has such a geographic diversification that it’s very difficult to beat that business model. Silver Wheaton is probably one of the safer ways to invest in silver because the margins are so high. Even when a streaming contractor has a problem, Silver Wheaton is much safer than a one-stock bet. That is why I like the royalty companies and it’s hard to beat Silver Wheaton.

 

TGR: What is the next catalyst for Silver Wheaton? Are you watching the ramp-up at Vale S.A.’s (VALE:NYSE) Salobo mine in Brazil?

DM: Yes. Silver Wheaton has a lot of streaming deals that will continue to grow for the company. The deals are attractive to Silver Wheaton’s shareholders and, in most cases, to the underlying company because many wouldn’t be able to get the funding to move forward without it. So it’s a win-win situation.

TGR: What about gold companies? Are there any you like right now out there?

DM: We have done a great deal of research on many gold companies and one that we have discussed with members for the last five years is Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE), one of the most sought-after names at one time. That company looks so good going forward that if investors are patient, meaning willing to wait three years or so, it could pay off nicely.

TGR: What about non-gold and silver companies?

DM: Trevali Mining Corp. (TV:TSX; TREVF:OTCQX; TV:BVL) is a zinc play. It’s one of the few positive stories out there right now. It’s up from where we recommended it and has the capital to keep moving the Caribou and Santander mines into production. Some of the major bank analysts are now talking zinc; we were pretty early.

TGR: We’ve had a lot of debate among some of our experts about the ideal ratio between gold and silver. If gold goes to $2,000/oz in 2014, do you believe silver will follow based on a specific ratio or do you see them working independently?

DM: I have studied this issue as much as anyone other than The Moneychanger author Franklin Sanders. A 45-foot long historic silver chart covering the last 4,500 years, where each foot would be 100 years, shows that only in the last 19 inches the silver-gold ratio would be above 16:1. The 4,400 years before that, it would be less than 16:1! So, from a long-term perspective it means silver is undervalued to gold. Yet, let us agree that for the current time frame it has much less meaning.

My point is that the ratio tells you which metal is doing better relative to each other. The ratio was 80:1 when the silver bull market started, and it’s basically 60:1 now. That means as volatile as silver has been, from the start of the bull market, if investors put the same amount of dollars into gold or silver, they would be better off putting it into silver. I’m not advocating that. I think investors should own both gold and silver. But, overall, I believe silver’s outperforming trend will continue.

Now Eric Sprott believes in the monetary classic ratio of 16:1 ratio and thinks the metal will eventually return to that level. I think the ratio will at least test where we’ve already been in this bull market, and that’s about a 35:1 ratio. We’ve already been there very, very briefly when silver did its big magic jump from $19/oz to $48/oz in 2011. In the meantime, we’re looking at more volatility.

TGR: What message did you give people at the Cambridge House Investment conference in Vancouver?

DM: The bull market is not over and it’s normal in these secular bull markets to shake off some bulls and reach the status that we are currently at where the sentiment is very low. There is a lot of distrust and a lot of people are questioning whether they should be in the sector. Those are signs that the bottom is in. Now is the time, for those not in the sector, to get in. For those already in, either hold what they have, add to their position or ride it out. A couple of years from now we’re going to see much higher prices in the precious metals. Three or four years out, it may be overvalued in real terms, but that remains to be determined.

TGR: Thanks, David, for your insights and time.

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David Morgan (www.Silver-Investor.com) is a widely recognized analyst in the precious metals industry; he consults for hedge funds, high net-worth investors, mining companies, depositories and bullion dealers. He is the publisher of The Morgan Report on precious metals, the author of “Get the Skinny on Silver Investing” and a featured speaker at investment conferences in North America, Europe and Asia.

Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

DISCLOSURE:

1) JT Long conducted this interview as an employee of The Gold Report. She personally and/or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Gold Report: Trevali Mining Corp. Goldcorp Inc. is not affiliated with Streetwise Reports. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for services. Interviews are edited for clarity.

3) David Morgan: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: All companies named in this interview. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

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  1. We are definitely living in the days of synchronized markets. 
     
    Goldcorp is another miner that has reached the area of their ’08 lows.  My 13 day moving average has been flirted with by several miners the past few weeks, crossing the 50 day and reaching towards the 200.  The last time I annouced this type of scenario the markets turned around and bombed.  So I am keeping my mouth shut this time and expecting the miners to tumble one more time. 
     
    With the so called economic boom going on - (I dont know where, but they say it is) I cant see them letting the miners turn the corner yet.  (the prices aren’t cheap enough for China).  If it aint dirt cheap, it aint cheap enough.  We cant be a third world country with prices like this… LOL, an economic boom on our way to becoming a third world country. 
     
    Whats the price of anything in China nowadays?  Are we “in” China yet?

    • “We cant be a third world country with prices like this… LOL, an economic boom on our way to becoming a third world country.”
       
      Prior to completely collapsing in 2008, the Zimbabwe economy & stock market were literally on fire.  Unfortunately, the fire pretty much consumed them until only ashes remain.  Those who pursue this mad “race to the bottom” idea seem unaware that they race is over and Zimbabwe has already “won”.

  2. “I’m anticipating a rebuild year where silver climbs back over $30 oz”       
    Or still down -40% from the high of 3-4 years ago.
    “The bull market is not over”      
    Yet, in a few months silver could still be down -60% from the high of 3 years ago, time is running out for this “bull market”, a new high needs to be estabished in the next 12-18 months, or the bull could be considered dead.
     

    • The quote on the other SD article is the one you should elaborate upon, zeroman.
      After being asked if the gold and silver markets are manipulated, Hugo Salinas replies, “Of course the gold and silver markets are manipulated. You have to be either blind or a Harvard Graduate with doctorate in Economics to ignore the fact.”

      http://www.silverdoctors.com/billionaire-hugo-salinas-price-gold-is-the-feds-enemy/

      Of course, the zeroman perceives this to be untrue LOL.
      Fundamentals, technical analysis yah-da yah-da yah-da.  None of the prices make sense because the entire game is rigged by a small group of psychopathic people with delusions-of-grandeur.  The problem is too many follow their lead and ‘make sense’ of the prices of goods and services as they wish to believe the small group of psychopathic people are a fairy-tale.
      PLACE YOUR BETS:
      Is zeroman a:blind or b:a PhD from Harvard.  I’d wager on the former LOL.
      Keep stackin’ folks, the 100th monkey is getting itchy feet :-)
      PS.  Mikey lad, don’t spring to zeroman’s rescue with some lame retort, there’s a good boy.

    • @coppersterling
      you are awful mouthy for a newbie, last I checked we welcomed critical thinking?
       
      When I make an investment I want to remid critical pieces rather than hear how smart I am.  If I right I’ll be rewarded and if I am wrong hopefully the critical thoughts are strong enough to make me change my mind.
       
      Note that is not an opinion or statement either way.

    • @mikeyj80
      A ‘newbie’ eh?  What like I’m ‘new’ to the silver story, or ‘new’ to debate, or ‘new’ to linguistic psychology, or ‘new’ to posting at silver doctors?  I think we’ll just regard your comment in context of the latter, eh?
      You should have an open mind and possess critical thinking – well done for that :-)
      As for the zeroman – let’s just state I’ve observed his postings and can identify some of his ‘critical thinking’ techniques LOL…cough…shill….cough.
       

    • Hey copper, no worries friend. For some unknown reason, mikeyj80 likes to play dinks with zman and defend his gibberish. Aside from him though, everyone else here knows the dude is a complete troll.

    • @coppersterling
       
      seeing as I don’t know anything about you I can only comment as to your time here.  Given this I was surprised to your tone when you clearly don’t know much about me either.
       
      Welcome and look forward to some exchanges of opinion.

    • @Bay of Pigs
      How’s it going, bud?  Hope the preps are coming along fine.  Not too sure about Mikey, but I don’t think zeroman is a troll, I reckon he/she/it is a shill to be honest.
      A troll is just someone that’s bored and likes to get attention by being controversial on some forums.  A shill is a whole different animal.
      Who knows for sure though, eh?

    • Just because you disagree with an opinion does not make someone a troll.
       
      Further, if he is one which I doubt that he is, he is doing a fantastic job getting you all to keep feeding him.

    • @mikeyj80
      The only time I’ve noticed your comments is when they’ve been directed at me and have been in defense of the zeroman – that is my only impression of you prior to this exchange.  Rather puzzling why you defend him/her/it, but each to their own.

    • @coppersterling, I must not be paying enough attention as this is the first time I recall addressing you.
       
      As far as what I defend, let’s be VERY clear and understand that it is not people here, but opinions.  I would even defend bay of pigs if he ever posted something worthwhile! I have disagreed with Zman as well. I am not here to make pals or enemies, I am here to read opinions I don’t get exposed to in my real life, as well as share my own. no more, no less.

    • @mikeyj80
      Funny, as each and every time I’ve responded to the zeroman, you have provided the retort, but I suppose memory is a subjective and selective phenomenon. I like BoP’s comments – you can sense they are sincere.

    • That’s pretty funny mikey. I have plenty of good conversations around here. Just not with you and the troll. Do you ever ask yourself why you are the only person on this board that defends zman and his propaganda? (btw, that is different from an opinion).
       
       

    • @bay-of-pigs
      i stand corrected, i browsed your recent posts and your comments to sam520 hit the mark.  So in spite of the wealth of insults and one liners, usually about how dumb everyone else is, there was something worth reading.

    • @coppersterling
      @bay-of-pigs
      @zman

      So actually reading the initial comment brings on a thought.  In regards to silver, why do we not see a large uptick in commercial hedging (industry) at these prices?  Those people consume silver on a daily basis and know they will for years to come.  They see prices are down more than half of recent highs, yet interest in long side hedging isn’t there, yet we see continued (though limited) sell side hedging which i can only assume is selling current mine production rather than really significantly forward contracting….
       
      These potential futures longs (in actuality they are physical shorts) are likely paying 10s to 100s of thousands per year for mkt analysis yet are on the sidelines… if there was anyone to combat massive short selling in silver, it would be long term industrial users that could buy across the whole strip, yet they choose not to?
       
       
      I understand in gold that demand is less steady and hand to mouth so the hedge is a riskier bet from the long side, but in silver it would seem to make so much sense…. and yes i get silver is probably a small percentage of the cost of any one good produced, but for the big boys it is probably an area that hundreds to millions could be saved/made by pricing effectively.

    • “PLACE YOUR BETS:
      Is zeroman a:blind or b:a PhD from Harvard.  I’d wager on the former LOL.”
       
      I will hedge that bet by saying that he could be a 1-eyed MS from Yale.  ;-)
       

    • @Bay-of-Pigs
      “zman and his propaganda”
      LOL, like “US dollar going to 0, bond market collapse, COMEX default, all paper going to 0, gold and silver shortages, global depression, hyper-inflation” 
      This is the propaganda that is spewed by you and others,  and they are nothing more than crazy conspiracy theories.

    • @zman,   “they are nothing more than crazy conspiracy theories.”
       
      Then why are you here? It makes no sense at all. Why read the articles and post about things you don’t even believe? You buy the gov’t line. Good for you. So what is it? Are you completely insane or a total assclown?

    • @coppersterling
      “The quote on the other SD article is the one you should elaborate upon, zeroman.After being asked if the gold and silver markets are manipulated, Hugo Salinas replies, “Of course the gold and silver markets are manipulated. You have to be either blind or a Harvard Graduate with doctorate in Economics to ignore the fact.””

       
      So what if they are manipulated. They were manipulated and suppressed during its glorious 10 year bull run. Everyone said that adjusted to 1980 levels, gold should be at least 2200 oz minimum. Curious how people complain less when they are in the green and watching a rise. People expect 1930s ratios and that is just ridiculous. The credit expansion and extended derivatives would have put gold well beyond 1900 based if it weren’t ‘manipulated’. 

      This is the new normal people. What some people call ‘manipulation’ is actually free game to a market that is dwarfed by big money. A less than successful gold market is in the interest of many hands (and I don’t blame them) because high gold prices say your monetary system and currency are entirely worthless. Of course the system is going to put up a fight. 
      I invest in gold because big money will hedge when the time is right and in their interest. In the mean time, this site sounds like a bunch of cry babies. Why does this turn into doomsday discussions. I suggest SD create a side site just  for the apocalypse, raptures, ammo and bible fairy tales. Otherwise I enjoy learning about the finer details of PM (as long as its not from narcissistic doomsday predictors who are attention whores). 
       
       
       

  3. I thought the bottom was in on silver 6 months ago?  I was recently told the prices of gold and silver rise and fall with the price of oil, until of course the price of oil rises and gold and silver tank.  Volatility and lots of buying and selling are great for those who make a fee from these activities, so if they can initiate some buying because they talk people into believing “the bottom is in” it’s great for them regardless if the price goes down even further.  Only the manipulators of the futures markets know for sure, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for insider information from them.

  4. Chart yen/gold and you will see a near 1/1 inverse relationship since ’09.

    Since Yen began it’s big devaluation in ’13 gold prices have bombed (same timing as Germany’s request for phyz)…GLD gold holdings have been puked out from 1350 tons now down to 792 tons…with likely more today. Another 3%-5% devaluation of the Yen and GLD holdings should be halved again? The faster they print, the more worthless gold becomes. Interesting.

    Comex has 222 tons of which 11 are available for delivery. LBMA is apparently only full of bare shelves.
    Gold scrap sales has collapsed since the peak in ’08…from 880 tons/yr to less than 200…

    Funding in Yen to go short paper gold to go long physical gold.

    In theory this works shorting the price of gold while going very long the physical asset…in an infinite world.

    Comex deliverable gone from 3 million oz to 375 k oz in ’13…GLD lost 560 of it’s 1350 tons…LBMA pretty well cleaned out…all the non-mining scrap sales have collapsed…mining production flat at best and at/near/below the all-in cost of production…exploration / capex is completely shelved.

    So available supply @ these prices is collapsing and assuming Yen devaluation continues un-abated, soon the shorting will no longer have a correpsonding physical asset available with which to pair off long against. Simply another 3%-5% Yen devaluation and nearly all available physical supplies are gone or unavailable (non-deliverable). This is coming @ us very rapidly…it is quite obvious and nearly every obvious trade is wrong…so what are we looking at???

    • Nothing from Brinks tonight (Brinks has so little metal w/in the Comex (total of 100k oz eligible…86k deliverable) they would really need to see something in the “received” column to be a game changer…or else w/ two tons shifted to deliverable…they would be flirting w/ only about 35k oz left in eligible (non-deliverable)?

      HSBC swapped 67k from eligible to deliverable…but still really really low against Feb.

    • @Hambone
      “Gold scrap sales has collapsed since the peak in ’08.. from 800 tons/yr to less than 200″
      Really?   “GFMS is forecasting almost 1,400 mt for total global gold scrap supply in 2014.   (1300 was for 2013). 
      http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1390514386.php
      “LMBA is pretty well cleaned out”     Really, have you been there checking out the inventory, or is this just a “gut” feeling?

    • That’s right, Hambone, you did indeed to forget to insert the term “US” before typing “Gold scrap sales has collapsed since the peak in ’08.. from 800 tons/yr to less than 200″, which of course left a window-of-opportunity for those inclined (psyop shills) to debunk everything else you wrote (via cognitive association) LOL.
      As for the LBMA, god knows what it has as the smoke-and-mirrors Fiefdom known as the ‘City’ will only be evaluated if it get shuts down.  A ‘city’ that parades demonic effigies during a city parade is not to be trusted IMHO. 

    • Hey Zman -
      regarding gold scrap – USGS states that US gold scrap exports have fallen from 886 tons in ’08 to likely under 200 tons in ’13…as you note, this doesn’t square w/ World Gold Council estimates for ’13 of 1400 tons globally…as source notes, likely to be closer to 1300 tons globally for ’13 down from 1735 tons in ’09.  The US decline in scrap has not been replaced and seems global #’s down due to US
      http://srsroccoreport.com/is-the-u-s-running-out-of-gold-scrap/is-the-u-s-running-out-of-gold-scrap/
      Regarding LBMA, no solid #’s and simply repeating based on reports.

      Gold mining supply reported to be at marginal record high supply in ’14 before declining in ’15.

  5. How many times have we been let down by these so called experts and gurus. Honestly, I am now convinced the paper price of metals will go to zero, only then will the real value of real gold and silver (not some paper price product) be revealed for what it truly is. 
    Metals do not belong in a stock portfolio, only as in your possession real phyzz.
    The silver chart looks like dog poo, and will probably be going down. My 2 cents.

  6. Woah Woah, Woah Now! In a couple of years? What happen to the END IS IMMINENT BULLSHIT? This is incredible. The Doc says that Gold and Silver is always smashed down the day after FOMC meetings. The Chinese are on Holiday and the paper markets drove the price down! China will love that tomorrow! Been on this here board for going on over two years now and I’ll be damned if the Guru’s don’t keep pushing the friggin’ date farther out. I am not a Silver Basher! I am becoming a GURU BASHER! Wake me up in a couple of years and tell me what the GURU’S are saying!

  7. David Morgan knows a lot about the fundamentals of the silver market.  He is terrible at price forecasts.  He didn’t see this long bear market coming and didn’t even know we were in one.  He did call the top of the silver market at 48 in May of 2011.  He was been clueless ever since.  He predicted we would see 60 dollar silver in Jan Feb of 2012.  In fact, he was telling investors to buy silver all the way down to where we are now.  He said 30 dollars was a great entry point.  And, on and on.  Never, I mean never listen to any of Mr Morgans price forecasts except for entertainment purposes.  He just doesn’t have a feel for it.  And, he is certainly not worth paying a penny for his investment advice.  Other than that, he is a heck of a fellow.

  8. The time is getting closer then you think. As soon as the stock market starts to slide 300 400 points a day its game over. The comex will default and your local government will come to the rescue to freeze pm prices since there be no one to bid on the product. By march that month things will start to happen.

  9. ZMAN@cia.gov is a Cass Sunstein/Obombass administration paid troll, and probably mikeyj80iq as well, who has the main job of being here to support and validate zman, while trying to present himself as one of us.
    ——————————————————————————————————————————————–
    “Cass Sunstein, the Regulatory Czar, had suggested, in a 2008 paper, that government agents, or allied groups, infiltrate and undermine groups that spread “conspiracy theories.”

    [The CIA was responsible for putting the weaponized term “conspiracy theorist” into circulation. The terms “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist” were virtually unheard-of until the mid-1960s, when the CIA issued a memorandum to its thousands of Operation Mockingbird media assets telling them to attack JFK assassination researchers using those words.]

    In a 2008 academic paper, President Barack Obama’s appointee to head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs advocated “cognitive infiltration” of groups that advocate “conspiracy theories” …….

    Cass Sunstein, a Harvard law professor, co-wrote an academic article entitled “Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures,” in which he argued that the government should stealthily infiltrate groups that pose alternative theories on historical events via “chat rooms, online social networks, or even real-space groups and attempt to undermine” those groups. ” 1

    1 http://conservativehideout.com/2010/01/17/czar-wars-trolls-cass-sunstein-advocates-“cognitive-infiltration”-of-groups/
    ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

    Another article describing what job ZMAN is paid to do: Obama Information Czar Outlined Plan For Government To Infiltrate Conspiracy Groups: “Put into English, what Sunstein is proposing is government infiltration of groups opposing prevailing policy,” 2

    2 http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-information-czar-outlined-plan-for-government-to-infiltrate-conspiracy-groups.html

    To read about the fine details of the implemented version of the government infiltration
    program, check out the following link:

    https://theuglytruth.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/i-was-a-paid-pro-israel-internet-shill/

    ———————————————————————————————————————
    The phony government talking points that zman is paid to continuously write about are:
    1.)silver price is based on free market supply and demand.
    2.)silver prices are not manipulated by government or their bullion bank/shadow government owners.
    3.)Inflation doesn’t exist, regardless of the research demonstrating it does, from shadowstats.
    4.)Inflation expectations are low and will stay that way (again ignoring that 9-10% inflation does exist, as shown by shadowstats).
    5.)Banks are a safe place to keep your money, since a bail-in is unlikely. Therefore, it’s implied you should leave your money in the bank and other paper/electronic bankster theft mechanisms (instead of buying silver with it).
    6.)Hyperinflation will never happen in the USA.
    7.}The U.S. dollar is sound and unlikely to become worthless
    8.)An opinion contrary to the above 1-7) is a conspiracy theory, and must be noted.
    9.)Never discuss the USGS position on silver mining near extinction within the next 15 years, as explained here: http://siamkidd.blogspot.com/2013/01/silver-to-become-extinct-by-2020.html
    —————————————————————————————————————————-
    ztroll@cia.gov keeps stating again and again that there’s no inflation, though that’s clearly not the case, as you can see in the following explanation:
    All one needs to do, to see the relatively HIGH INFLATION that we’re experiencing, is go to http://www.shadowstats.com and click on CPI, and the TRUE inflation (shadowstats ’80 based) is clearly seen in the chart. The chart indicates a most current inflation rate of ~8.7%.

    The chart shows that the inflation rate today is higher than that of: Most of ’82, all of ’83, ’84, ’85, ’86, ’87, ’88, ’89. ’90, ’91, ’92, ’93, ’94, ’95, ’96, ’97, ’98, ’99, half of ’01, half of ’02, part of ’03, part of ’08, all of ’09. Therefore, in looking at the data for the 31 years prior to this one, we find that: True Inflation NOW is higher than that of all of 18 of the past 31 years; at least most of 19 of the past 31 years; at least half of 21 of the past 31 years; at least part of 22 of the past 31 years. Moreover inflation today is on par with most of ’04, ’07, and ’10. Therefore inflation has only been lower than today in a mere SIX of the past 31 years. Thus REAL inflation, measured by shadowstats.com in the correct way, is clearly relatively high since 1982.

    A good explanation of the government reporting scam of CPI data is from analyst/journalist Bob Rinear, at: http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Faked_Numbers_Hides_The_Economic_Reality_for_Most_Of_Us
    Rinear states:

    “ALL the (government)data is corrupted, and the biggest dog of them all is the CPI numbers.

    The Government had been trying to hide inflation from us like a mom hides candy from her 4 year old. If something is going up wildly like the price of food or energy, they simply don’t include it in the readings. They say those areas are “too volatile” to be included in the measure. Hey, I don’t know about your family but in mine we need food and energy. It’s “included” in my budget for sure. But just leaving out certain sectors that don’t fit their “under 2% annual inflation” is just a fraction of the games they play. Then there’s the substitution game. In the Governments game of “hide the baloney”, if something that they measure is getting too price heavy, they switch away from it. In their words, if steak is going up too far and too fast, consumers will switch to hamburgers. Since burgers are considerably less expensive than steak, then the inflation rate has actually fallen. HUH??

    So, the substitution factor allows for wild price appreciations to take place, and they don’t have to include them in their final reading. Nope, just swap to something that hasn’t run as far. But oh wait…there’s more. Then when they couldn’t contain inflation with substitution they came up with the hedonic readings. This is like lucasion mathematics on acid. The idea here is that even if something costs more, but because it is technologically more advanced than it used to be and “could” help you produce more…then it actually can be recorded as costing less. Is that how you see the price of things? Of course not. If a Chevy “car” cost 18,000 last year, and is 18,720 this year, you don’t tell yourself it is actually cheaper because it has a better stereo system than last years. You simply say “it went up”. Why? Because it really did. But not according to the Government wonks. That car DECREASED the CPI. Go figure.
    —————————————————————————————————————————
    ztroll@cia.gov keeps stating that the silver ‘market’ is a free market, determined by price and demand, and not via manipulation, but logic, as explained below shows otherwise:
    From GATA,
    “There are many more records about the official policy of gold price suppression, including minutes of government agency meetings, interviews with government officials, and declassified intelligence agency memoranda. They are posted in the “Documentation” section of GATA’s Internet site:

    http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

    These documents are not mere speculation and “conspiracy theory.” They are the records of decades-long government policy conducted almost entirely in secret.
    Then there is the evidence of the market itself.
    GATA also has exposed gold market manipulation by examining trading data, most notably in a study by our late board member and market analyst Adrian Douglas showing that the gold price during trading in the London market went down steadily for 10 years even as the world gold price went up steadily in that time. Anyone buying gold on the opening of the London market and selling it on the close every day over the last decade would have lost a huge amount of money even as the gold price rose steadily.”

    http://www.gata.org/node/8918

    Chris Powell: Gold price suppression — why, how, and how long?

    http://www.gata.org/node/13185

    Dr. Jim Willie stated: ( http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-return-of-gold-standard/ )
    that the probablity that GATA is correct about market manipulation is close to 100%.

    “In the gold community, the event under test is the GATA claim of gold market suppression. Numerous events have occurred since their original claim of extreme interference, regulator collusion, zero percent gold lease rates, and fraudulent rise in naked short futures contracts. It cannot be proved perfectly. But as evidence mounts over the years, with case after case, example after example, in support of the pervasive gold market interference and widespread price suppression, the Bayesian posterior probability that GATA is correct is closing in fast on one hundred percent.”

    Financial analyst Rob Kirby says, ( http://www.silverdoctors.com/rob-kirby-this-ends-when-china-doesnt-get-its-gold/ )
    “There is colossal fraud and price control going on. There are no free markets.”

    Dr. Paul Craig Roberts stated : “Until a whistleblower speaks, we cannot know for certain, but my conclusion is that the Fed understands that it must protect the dollar from being driven down by QE and that the ORCHESTRADED TAKEDOWNS OF GOLD are part of protecting the dollar’s value…” The quote is from: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/12/20/manipulations-rule-markets-paul-craig-roberts/
    Note the title of the article: ‘MANIPULATIONS RULE THE MARKETS’

    Roberts, a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy; former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal; former columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate; and also having had many university appointments, clearly makes intelligent analysis.

    On 1/25/14, ‘Sovereign Economist’ of SD, stated it all in a superb manner:
    “The reason the paper price of the metals is where it is is simply because there are powerful people that want it there…The reason is simple — the prices are where they are today and this has NOTHING to do with PHYSICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND! We are in a World-wide CURRENCY WAR! And, GOLD is a CURRENCY. The price of gold is controlled because, if the price goes up very far very fast, it WILL collapse and DESTROY the whole USdollar support price-manipulation mechanism. And, in all actuality, it would kill all the other currencies too.

    In the face of unprecedented demand for physical gold, coming particularly from the East (Asia, esp China) TPTB have had to keep the lid on the price of gold. How have they done this? SIMPLE! They have simply substituted real physical supply with synthetic paper gold contracts. This is precisely what the deriviatives market was created for. PRICE CONTROL!…They set a price (it can be WHEREVER they want it to be) and promise to deliver the physical IN THE FUTURE!!! Do they need to put it up today??? NO!!! So, what they are doing is creating SYNTHETIC SUPPLY. When this wealth of supply gets thrown into the supply-demand price discovery, what you think will happen??? YEP! PRICE FALLS!!!!!
    It should be apparent that if someone wants to hold a price down, all they need to do is to come up with some additional SUPPLY. And, THIS is precisely what the people who are protecting the dollar in the world currency market have done. They have created SYNTHETIC SUPPLY all out of proportion to the actual physical available. Undeniable is the fact that their are far more claims on physical ounces than there are physical ounces to meet those claims. But, by creating this synthetic paper supply, they can keep the prices capped wherever they need them to be.”

    • @$$$$$$$$$ 
      You sell a great story. As a PM investor, I wish a small % was actually true. Hell, I might even be wearing a aluminum foil hat to block the mind control with you. GATA is full of CAHCAH in my opinion. They are in “the investigation phase” but don’t seem to do all that much. Kinda like the United Nations. Here is my impression of your list:
      1.)silver price is based on free market supply and demand.
       
      I will trust the global market before this crap (see reason 2)
       
      2.)silver prices are not manipulated by government or their bullion bank/shadow government owners.
       
       
      You keep posting Shadow Stats. Big freakin’ deal. Silver prices were manipulated in their bull run and long before that. You are just pissed now that you are in the red. You can call this “manipulation” or big money corning a small market. It’s fair game in their eyes and the normal for PM

      3.)Inflation doesn’t exist, regardless of the research demonstrating it does, from shadowstats.
       
       
      It’s not in the interest of big money to the destroy the dollar right now or hedge off inflation. Who can say they have had a raise in the last 5 years. Wage inflation is flat and business inflation is flat.
       

      4.)Inflation expectations are low and will stay that way (again ignoring that 9-10% inflation does exist, as shown by shadowstats).
       
       
      Again, we have been a liquidity trap. Your logic is based on fiat creation = inflation and that is not true. PM doesn’t rise based on ethics.  We have hit a ceiling on credit expansion. Its really the derivative extension that grew gold from 2000-2010. I predict we will see much more bank lending in 2014 so it may prove interesting how real inflation is interpreted

      5.)Banks are a safe place to keep your money, since a bail-in is unlikely. Therefore, it’s implied you should leave your money in the bank and other paper/electronic bankster theft mechanisms (instead of buying silver with it).
       
       
      Dollar is the best of worst right now. If the yen, pound and euro were sound then you might have a point

      6.)Hyperinflation will never happen in the USA.
       
      Its certainly possible, just not today

      7.}The U.S. dollar is sound and unlikely to become worthless
       
      No currency stands the test of time of course and gold’s history is more convincing of course. However, to say we can have clean slate with a gold back currency is untrue. Gold backed currencies are incredibly deflationary and certainly in the this juncture of a debt death spiral. We are going to put up a fight before we go to plan Z (no pun intended). Would you expect the banks to do anything less?

      8.)An opinion contrary to the above 1-7) is a conspiracy theory, and must be noted.
       
      There is very little humility on this message board. As a PM investor, I have been wrong for the last several years, can you say the same? Your so called manipulation should have been accounted for in your investment thesis. 
      No one wants to accept they were wrong and they make a crybaby excuse. Big money is not hedging of inflation (yet)! We will certainly know it when they do. They certainly don’t give a crap about you cost of living or consumer inflation for that matter.

      9.)Never discuss the USGS position on silver mining near extinction within the next 15 years, as explained here:
       
       
       
      Spot price reflects today’s market value. I’ve read the links you posted in the past. This is interesting but I don’t believe in the inventory shortages being posted here. If they are true then great, it’s good for my investment. There has been a great deal of exaggeration on this topic (as if to recruit metal investors). Save the fairytale bible apocalyptic rapture BS for another message board. I’m here for the precious metals.
       

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