David Morgan: Silver Forming the Most Bullish Cup & Handle Possible!

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Silver expert David Morgan joins SD Metals & Markets for an explosive show:

  • David breaks down this week’s trading in gold & silver: David states that silver is forming the most bullish cup & handle formation possible, and joins The Doc’s sentiments that you do NOT want to be short gold or silver this weekend ahead of the Crimea referendum
  • David provides his medium and long term outlook for the metals, including when the next avalanche of momentum buying to the upside will come, and predicts when the final blow-off top to the long term secular gold and silver bull markets will materialize
  • The Fed’s custodial treasury bond holdings plunge by $105 billion in the past week, as Russia likely pulled their t-bond holdings from the Fed to prevent an asset freeze in response to the annexation of Crimea (Putin is 1-stop ahead yet again)
  • We break down the build-up for war, and what to expect this weekend as the dominoes begin to fall in Ukraine.  Are we on the brink of a military confrontation between two nuclear superpowers?  

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc, Eric Dubin, & guest host David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com is below:

 

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It was a pleasure having David Morgan on this week’s show.  I began to take a serious look at precious metals investing in 2000, and David Morgan’s work played a big part in my ability to move rapidly up the proverbial learning curve.  For those interesting in learning more about David, check out his website:  Silver-Investor.com.  You’ll find links to his YouTube, Facebook and Twitter accounts at his website too (scroll down to the bottom of Silver-Investor.com to find the links).

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silver

 

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Gold and silver picked up nice “safe haven” buying this week above and beyond new bull trend buying.  Make no mistake, we’re seeing the return of long-term investment interest.  That story is most clearly depicted by mining share action since mid December.

We should also distinguish between the sort of safe haven buying that comes in just before a weekend where people fear the prospect for near-term war versus the sort of long-term insurance “save haven” buying linked to investors that understand eventual dollar debasement will come under any form of global monetary currency system renegotiation.  Many among the world’s wealthy can see the outlines of renegotiation writing on the wall, along with both large and small “smart money” investors that understand currency history.

Friday, we cleared resistance in gold, while silver was dragged along for the ride.  Nevertheless, the cartel was visible, keeping a lid on gold’s upside.  Why would a gold momentum move end just when resistance was overcome, and ahead of a weekend where conflict might erupt?  Any trader with any meaningful market experience would know the answer.  In any event, gold returned to end the day with a reasonably strong performance.  We’re well on track for the forecast I made last week, and Bill Murphy’s call is looking more prescient by the day.

Putin_Kerry-Lavrov_Resized

 

Ukraine continues to be the top story.  Reading between the lines and with the context of real history as guide (not what we’re taught in school), I believe the US game plan vis-à-vis Russia and the Ukraine can be described as follows.  Never mind what John Kerry says for public consumption, the State Department and their bosses (above Obama’s pay grade) most assuredly realize Russia would go to full out war to protect their only year-round warm water port and control over the Crimea as a buffer.  From a strategic point of view, some things are non-negotiable.  Putin backing down on the Crimea would be like the US looking the other way if Russia reneged on the sale of Alaska.  The US would never allow that to happen.

The Neocons dominating the Obama Presidency are ruthless, but they are not idiots.  In reality, most of their objectives can be met without caring one iota about the Crimea.  Western Ukraine is now destabilized, mostly controlled by Nazi-sympathizing forces that were at the heart of the violent protests that created the mess we see today.  These Maidan Nezalezhnosti radicals received direct aid from the US leading up to the toppling of the country.  Most Americans have no idea this happened.  Our mainstream media is busy telling us Hilary, a Neocon globalist stooge in fake “liberal” clothing, thinks Putin is acting like Hitler.  Meanwhile, a sizable percentage of the American public has bought into the gross oversimplification that America and Europe are trying to come to the aid of a people seeking self determination against the Russian bear.  Even the idea that Russia invaded the Crimea is something most Americans believe.  There was no invasion.  But I digress.

Bottom-line:  US empire maintenance is served by turning the Ukraine into something similar to another Yugoslavia, where the country is split-up and neutered.  What remains of Ukraine will be less able to assert policy in its own best interest, and will thus be more pliable to Western interests.  In the Neocon US policy establishment community, it’s assumed that will result in more influence over oil and gas pipelines carrying Russian supply, along with yanking out of Russia’s orbit Ukraine’s industry and giant “bread basket” farm production potential.  It’s quite literally the Balkanization of the Ukraine.  The Crimean people will vote this Sunday to eventually fold into Russia (they’re mostly Russian) and the West will probably escalate sanctions as early as next week.  The Russians might back down eventually in the form of not retaliating with US bond sales or other aggressive moves given that they’ll have the Crimea.  This stand-off will fester for a few weeks to months and then, hopefully fade as this specific round of conflict closes.

It should also be noted that these dynamics have a financial warfare context, where the US dollar’s status as a reserve currency continues to weaken as Russia and China push the G-20 sans G-7 down the evolutionary road of a new global monetary regime.  Destabilizing countries within the Russian sphere of influence (e.g., Syria, the Ukraine) in a twisted sort of way buys the US time and incorrectly perceived degrees of maneuverability at precisely the time Russia, China and the rest of the G-20 sans G-7 are attempting to accelerate the evolution towards a new global reserve monetary system.  Within the context of this low intensity financial war, the US Neocon establishment actually believes there’s still a chance Russia and China can be boxed-in and weakened with structures like the Trans-Pacific Partnership trading block, and destabilization efforts around the edges of Russia and China’s direct sphere of influence, respectively.  This, in turn, is the basis for the Neocon financial strategy to drive a better US bargain at the grand monetary negotiations table of the future.  With a weaker Russia and China, the more power (and the duration of that power) accrues to the dollar-based empire.

It wasn’t an accident that the peak of the US drive to attack Syria came around the same time Russia was hosting the last G-20 meeting.  The meeting’s top agenda item was the discussion of the reserve and trade status of the US dollar.  Guess what’s on the docket for April’s G-20 meeting?  Discussion about IMF reforms and the status of the dollar.

This is a reactionary foreign policy in service of special interests – with the interests of the Western financial oligarchy at the apex of these special interests.  Some of you will recall the classic 1970s spy thriller “Three Days of the Condor.”  Near the end of the film, Turner (Robert Redford) confronts Higgins (Cliff Robertson) about the murder of CIA agents.  Higgins chalks it up to the necessities of geopolitical games in order to keep resources flowing for the American people.  Today, in a world where “special interests” arguably dominate nation state policy far greater than at any time since the birth of the nation state, those 1970s sentiments almost seem quaint.

Have a good weekend and pray that I’m correct on my analysis of the Neocon faction game plan.  If I’m wrong, that might mean they’re bat sh*t crazy and not bound by the dictates of realpolitik — and you don’t want to know what that might lead to.  Stay tuned to the “Geopolitics” page at The News Doctors for ongoing coverage.  I place mainstream media coverage there for context.  But more importantly, you’ll also find some of the best alternative analysis outside Mighty Wurlitzer organs.  — Eric Dubin

 

 

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Comments

  1. “Bottom-line:  US empire maintenance is served by turning the Ukraine into something similar to another Yugoslavia, where the country is split-up and neutered.”
     
    You should note however that it will be the people of the Ukraine and NOT the US/EU that will have the final say as to whether or not they join up with the EU. For instance it did not take long for Egypt to remove the US backed Muslim Brotherhood from power. The proposed austerity measures to pay down I think $73 billion of Ukrainian government debt will result in a significant decline in Ukrainians standard of living such as the proposed halving of pensions and that’s not even counting the loss of special trading privileges with Russia such as discounted gas prices from Gazprom .   Even with the ridiculous western media propaganda, Ukrainians aren’t stupid and will have seen what’s happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland etc. in the name of austerity. The Ukraine has a centuries old history with Russia. Would they really want to give that up that for guaranteed US/EU treachery?
     

    • word!

    • @59LesPaul:  Sure, of course.  I agree.  That’s another set of dynamics the Western media isn’t talking about too.
      Thanks,Eric Dubin

    • Also messing with Russia’s main source of wheat… not good to make them starve

    • @MaryB
      Russia is a net exporter of wheat. This year they’ll produce about 50 million tons of wheat and import maybe 1 million tons (high side). Exports likely to be about 15 mln tons and in recent years a lot of this has been across the sea to places like Egypt.

      Ukraine is significant, but 20ish mln tons produced and they’ll ship out half of it, often to similar destinations as russian wheat.

  2. We have all eaten from  the fruit in the midst of the garden and have drank  the wine from the cup of fornication, and have become wretched, miserable and poor, and blind, and naked, we have all become unclean by unrighteous deeds and become like filthy rags, but fear not my brothers for The Lamb has anointed the most holy, and we shall all put on righteousness, being made  clean by the sprinkling of His  blood …………………………………… 

    • I’m a Christian man, and ponder the “End Game” and where each step may lead towards that Rev. framework more than most men, but this is an economic forum; complete with enough financial opposing opinions and disagreements, so lets keep our eye on the ball and not stray off to a topic of religion.  “Today’s worries are sufficient for itself.”
      Focus @~~good&evil~~ :)

  3. My brother in Russian army bean issuwed red googles, he mystified. Da
    Lazer mybe?

  4. I get the feeling David is using the 1976 to 1979 price action as his template for what will happen this time around. After the metals bottomed in 1976, it only took 18 months for the metals to attain their previous all-time highs. 

    There are some difficulties with this analogy, even on the surface and that is there was no double bottom in the 1970′s correction. An argument could be made that the bottom this go around is even more significant/stronger than in 1976, and that the price increases from this juncture, could outpace the mid 1976 –  early 1978 move. If we were to consider the lows to be in, June of last year. We are already 9 months into the 1976 – 1978 move, meaning there would only be 9 months remaining (December 2014) before attaining the old all-time highs of ~ $1900/gold and $49 silver. This timeline coincides well with some of the other predictions I’ve been hearing from Eric Sprott, Bill Murphy etc.

    Two other items worth noting: 1.)While silver and especially gold have been up, as the Ukranian crisis has accelerated, there has been no “safe haven” move to the dollar; in fact, it has sold off modestly. This is rather telling given the action in the equity markets this week and the move in precious metals and treasuries. 2.) The Ukranian crisis and how it plays out is now a huge unknown variable that will have significant implications on the future price action of the metals. The way the situation evolves can either push forward the day of new highs or delay it further. Personally, my prediction is the former, but it is obviously low confidence.
     

    • In the context of ongoing currency wars, the correction from the 2011 peak can even be viewed in various key currencies. Not just the USD. Do it in GBP or EUR or Yuan, and it looks a bit different each time. GBP silver bottomed around new year. 
      For about 2 billion people, the bottom was very deep and came in June I guess. In Argentina, Ukraine and Russia (didn’t check India) the USD is up a lot the past year or even months. For them it’s too late to bottom fish for silver. Much different price psychology for them.
      In EUR, we are not too far off the June and December bottoms. Some 10%. In USD it’s 18% or so since June. And The Ruble lost 10% to the EUR just in 2014.
      The best deals are probably now in Yuan, GBP and some rare strong currencies. Perhaps NOK and SEK, CHF?
      Looks like currencies are falling (winning the currency war?) one by one now. If they owe debt in other currencies I suppose it’s not really winning unless magically interest paid goes lower still.

  5. The Dollar. Pay attention to the dollar. Fed buying up Treasuries, dropping yield.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
     

    • THANK YOU!  I keep going to market watch and find the 10yr, and pm’s and DOW but couldn’t locate the DXY Index! (frustrating!) I wanted to see last night what the result was after the “DUMP”. 
      -Investing Tab – Got it! ;)

  6. Oh Me, Oh My……….

  7. Screw the cup, handle, saucer, spoon, sugar, tea, whatever, just give me some upward “pressure” on the $%^&*(* silver price!!!!!!

  8. Gold Porn. 25.55 minutes into it ~  http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=IHnMtIIYxFE

  9. drunken post, deleted/ bobby

  10. Well while I’m waiting for Silver to take off I just scored some gold tonight.
    I scored  (1)  1oz Gold Valcambi Suisse Bar and (1) 1oz Perth Mint Bar both for $1330.00 each and $6 shipping. Now the spot will fall. Lol

  11. those are good juggs too.
    Charlie, I recall whenever I buy silver the price drops $1-3 Dont ask how much gold dropped on my last buy

    I’m trying something different to counter your buy and price drop mojo.
    Tomorrow I will trade 25 buffaloes for a near new SKS with nice polished Rosewood furniture
    With that type of wood it’ll not be used for SHTF scenarios but maybe home defense or the Ahhh factor.
    I guaranty that trade will make silver go up at least 55 to 70 cents monday.  Maybe gold will tag along too.
    We’ll see how that works out Cheers

  12. Marchas45
    I’m pretty  sheepish in my weekend call.
     But to my credit,  I am 100% consistent in making the wrong price call .
     100% batting average is not bad;
     it’s just BAAAAAA—D

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